apprentice demand in the top ten red seal trades...total demand for certificate - 1,040 4,070 5,735...

Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades:

British Columbia

The Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report

Prepared for the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum

Author: Prism Economics and Analysis

The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CAF-FCA.

Canadian Apprenticeship Forum 364-440 Laurier Avenue West Ottawa ON K1R 7X6

Email: [email protected] Website: www.caf-fca.org Canadian Apprenticeship Forum

Copyright May 2019 ISBN#: 978-0-9808913-3-1

Workforce certification requirements, driven in part by the timing of several major investments in the province (including the LNG Canada terminal), are projected to rise to a peak of 3,483 in 2021. Low levels of completion in a number of trades (including carpenters, welders and steamfitters/pipefitters, cooks and hairstylists), however, are likely to continue to limit the supply of certified journeypersons in the near-term. Assuming that current trends in registrations and rates of completions will continue, weaker growth following the completion of several major projects, alongside a slowing in residential sector requirements, could result in a potential oversupply of new journeypersons for several trades over the latter half of the coming decade.

SummaryApprenticeship program registrations and completions in British Columbia have failed to keep up with the rapid pace of growth in the province over the past five years and this gap contributes to the emergence of chronic labour market challenges for many skilled trades in the province. Between 2015 and 2018, British Columbia’s economic growth (real GDP) averaged 3.4%. Employment, driven by a strong expansion in housing construction and consumer spending, rose by 8% and construction employment grew by 18%. Over the same period, despite the rise in employment, new registrations in the 10 largest Red Seal trades declined by almost 10%.

In 2017, the number of program completions rose above 3,000, following a 25% decline between 2012 and 2016. The downward trend in new registrants over the past five years is expected to restrict the supply of newly certified journeypersons over the near-term, just as demand requirements are expected to increase in the province.

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2 Canadian Apprenticeship Forum

Figure 1- Trends in Apprenticeship New Registrations and Completions, 2007 to 2028

At Risk: Certifications Required Exceed Projected Completions

Balanced Conditions: Certifications Required in-line with Projected Completions

Ample Supply: Projected Completions Exceed Certifications Required

TOP - 10 RED SEAL TRADESCERTIFICATIONS

REQUIREDPROJECTED

JOURNEYPERSONSHairstylist 2,520 182

Welder 1,800 898

Carpenter 6,459 4,110

Automotive Service Technician 3,408 2,187

Cook 2,981 2,597

Steamfitter/Pipefitter 597 591

Heavy-Duty Equipment Technician 2,180 2,943

Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) 1,333 2,129

Plumber 2,432 4,563

Construction Electrician 5,080 10,749

Total 28,790 30,950

Figure 2- Projected Certification Requirements Versus Completions, 2019 to 2028

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 20280

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Completions New Registrations

3Apprenticeship Demand British Columbia

Economic and Employment OutlookBetween 2019 and 2028, the pace of economic growth in British Columbia is expected to average 2.2%, with stronger growth expected over the latter half of the decade. The timing of several major investments in the province, including the LNG Canada terminal, is projected to boost economic activity between 2019 and 2022. According to BuildForce Canada, non-residential investment is expected to expand by 29% over a 3-year period, increasing related employment requirements by 13,000 jobs by 2021. Employment is expected to recede as projects wind down and residential construction demand continues to slow, leaving overall construction employment 10% higher by 2028.

Figure 3- Employment Growth by Industry, 2019 to 2028

INDUSTRYINDUSTRY

EMPLOYMENT SHARE (%)

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (000’S)

AVERAGE ANNUAL

GROWTH RATE (%)

RED SEAL TRADES INTENSIVE INDUSTRIESConstruction 10% 10 0.4%Manufacturing 7% -17 -0.9%Oil and Gas, Mining, Other Primary and Utilities

4% 3 0.4%

Transportation and Warehousing 5% 9 0.7%Accommodation and Food 7% 22 1.2%Private Services 10% 24 1.0%

OTHER INDUSTRIES (LESS SKILLED TRADES INTENSIVE)Health, Education and Public Administration Services

24% 94 1.6%

Trade, Finance and Professional Services

33% 65 0.8%

Total 100% 212 0.9%

Employment growth in services and tourism sectors is expected to average over 1% per year, contributing positively to demand for service sector trades including cooks, automotive service technicians and hairstylists. Competing demands for young workers from other sectors may contribute to recruitment challenges for skilled trades. In particular, higher rates of growth are likely in information technology services as well as in health, education and public administration.

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Source: BuildForce Canada 2019 Outlook


Population and Age DemographicsPopulation growth in British Columbia is expected to reflect similar patterns of employment demand over the next decade. A large increase in net in-migration was evident from 2015 to 2017, as B.C. absorbed a portion of Alberta’s labour pool following the collapse of the province’s resource expansion. Another surge in in-migration is projected in 2019 and 2020, to meet the rise in British Columbia’s major project requirements. The pace of population growth is expected to slow as British Columbia’s population continues to age. This contributes to limiting economic growth and to the number young people available to replace workforce retirements over the next decade.

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Since 2013, new registrations have declined across all age groups, with the most notable decline in registrations from those under-20. Since 2013, total registrations from this age group have declined by nearly 50%, whereas registrations from all other age groups have increased, even if only marginally. Figure 4 summarizes the age distribution of new registrations, highlighting the significant decline in the under-20 age group as a percent of new registrants from 2013 to 2017.

Figure 4- Total New Registrations in Top 10 Red Seal Trades by Age Group, 2013 and 2017

2017

45-49 50+40-4435-3930-34

31%22%

12%

8% 20%

25-2920-24Under 20

Under 20 25%20%

20 to 24 30%31%

25 to 29 20%22%

30 to 34 12%12%

35 to 39 6%8%

40 to 44 4%4%

45 to 49 2%2%

50+ 2%2%

20172013


Labour Market Outlook SummaryBritish Columbia is projected to need 28,790 new journeypersons in order to meet anticipated employment growth and replacement demands between 2019 and 2028. Figure 5 provides an overview of the anticipated demand requirements and projected supply of new journeypersons for the top 10 Red Seal trades in the province. Over the forecast period, total program completions are projected to slightly exceed certification requirements. Given the large surge in demand expected between 2019 and 2021, followed by a decline as major projects are completed, recruitment challenges are likely to occur in the near-term while an oversupply of certified apprentices in some programs can be expected over the latter half of the decade. Trade-specific tables are provided in section five.

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Figure 5- Summary of Estimated Annual Certification Demand, New Program Registrations and Completions for Top 10 Red Seal Trades, 2014 to 2018, and 2019 to 2028

* 2018 values are projected

BC 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028

New Registrations 8,466 8,244 7,899 7,443 7,542 7,878 8,182 80,300

Avg. Annual Change (%) -3% -4% -6% 1% 4% 4% 9%

Completions 2,676 2,553 2,541 3,075 3,003 3,033 3,157 30,950

Avg. Annual Change (%) -5% 0% 21% -2% 1% 4% 9%

Total Demand for Certificate - 1,040 4,070 5,735 6,289 2,630 2,793 2,965 28,790


Figure 6- Total New Registrations and Target New Registrations for Top 10 Red Seal Trades, 2014 to 2028

Figure 6 compares new registrations (actual) with target registrations (registrations required to meet demand) for the top 10 Red Seal trades in British Columbia. The analysis suggests that between 2015 and 2017, new registrations fell significantly behind requirements, resulting in too few apprentices and new journeypersons to meet the rise in workforce requirements for the majority of skilled trades occupations. The significant time required to meet trade certification requirements for many Red Seal trades means it is far too late to look to apprenticeship to meet the anticipated surge in demand requirements. Doing so may only exacerbate a potential over supply once peak demands are met. Workforce planning strategies will likely require a combination of upskilling the existing workforce, increasing rates of completion and attracting skilled workers from outside the province.

Figure 7- Total Completions and Demand for Top 10 Red Seal Trades, 2014 to 2028

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 20285000

10000

15000

20000

2014

-3000

-2000-1000

01000200030004000500060007000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Target New Registrations New Registrations

CompletionsRelated Demand Principal Demand


On average, new registrations are projected to exceed historic levels for half the Red Seal trades. Figure 8 compares average total new registrations for Red Seal trades over two time periods, 2007 to 2017 and 2018 to 2028. Heavy-duty equipment technicians and plumbers are forecasted to have the largest increase, followed by construction electrician. Conversely, registrations in the hairstylist program are projected to see the largest decline, alongside other service-related trades such as automotive service technician. Comparing historical levels of registrations and completions in British Columbia is complicated because of changes in programs between 2012 and 2014. For example, the notable increase in new registrations in 2013 was caused, in part, by a sudden spike in the automotive service technician program (rising from 741 in 2012 to 2,763 in 2013). Changes in the welder program in 2014 caused a sharp decline that year in new registrations from 1,182 in 2013 to 276. Large fluctuations in new registrations can be partly attributed to the modularization of trades training which took place between 2005 to 2009 and the reconstitution of many after 2013. The sharp decline in welder registrations across the two periods can be attributed to program restructuring.

Figure 8- Average Total New Registrations by Red Seal Trade, 2007 to 2017, and 2018 to 2028

Trends in Program Registrations and Completions For three consecutive years between 2015 and 2017, strong increases in skilled trades employment resulted in annual certification requirements exceeding completions. Although the pace of growth has slowed, overall certification requirements are expected to continue to run ahead of new completions which are projected to remain relatively stable between 2019 and 2021. Figure 7 illustrates the total completions and demand projected over the forecast period. A weakening in demand is projected as major projects are completed. Rising workforce retirements and stronger economic growth is expected to increase demand for both principal and related trades and occupations after 2024.

830 597

1,724 1,748

1,730 1,977

1,211 1,129

472 175

383 462

314 326

877 1,057

180 149

753 364

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Welder

Steamfitter/Pipefitter

Plumber

Industrial Mech. (Millwright)

Heavy Duty Equip Tech.

Hairstylist

Cook

Construction Electrcian

Carpenter

Auto Service Tech. New Registrations 2007-2017

New Registrations 2018-2028


Supply and DemandDespite a moderate increase in completions, average annual certification requirements are expected to equal or exceed supply of newly certified journeypersons in most programs over the forecast period. Figure 9 compares average total completions and demand between 2007 and 2028. On average, annual certification requirements are projected to be lower compared to the previous decade for all trades except automotive service technicians and carpenters. The requirement for additional certified carpenters is expected to exceed that of electricians over the next decade as new as demand for new residential construction declines, and as consumer investment in renovation continues to rise. An anticipated increase in new electrician apprentices between 2018 and 2021 is expected to result in a significant increase in program completions over the latter half of the decade, assuming completion rates remain stable overall.

Chronically low completions in the hairstylist trades suggest there is likely to be a significant decline in the share of certified hairstylists working in this occupation. Similarly, recent trends suggest the share of Red Seal cooks and automotive service technicians is not likely to see a substantial increase.

Figure 9- Average Total Completions and Demand by Red Seal Trades, 2007 to 2028

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100

Welder

Steamfitter/Pipefitter

Plumber

Industrial Mech. (Millwright)

Heavy Duty Equip Tech.

Hairstylist

Cook

Construction Electrcian

Carpenter

Auto Service Tech. Demand 2007-2017

Demand 2018-2028

Completion 2007-2017

Completion 2018-2028


Trade-Specific TablesThe following section contains trade-specific tables showing historic annual and annual average supply and demand projections for individual top 10 Red Seal trades. On the supply side the tables include new program registrations, completions and imputed completion rates ; on the demand side, estimates of certification requirements related to expansion demand (change in employment) and replacement demand (deaths and retirements) are attributed to both the principal, or apprenticeable trade, and related trades and occupations.

AUTOMOTIVE SERVICE TECHNICIAN

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028

SUPPLY OF JOURNEYPERSONS

New Registrations 774 738 582 579 567 589 611 5,998

Avg. Annual Change (%) -5% -21% -1% -2% 2% 4%

Completions 219 204 237 243 225 214 223 2,187

Avg. Annual Change (%) -7% 16% 3% -8% -5% 4%

Completion Rate 49% 44% 47% 36% 37% 37% 37% 37%

DEMAND FOR PRINCIPAL TRADE

Replacement Demand 163 155 183 206 213 213 207 2,102

Expansion Demand -1,946 -346 1,213 253 -175 90 56 731

Total Principal Demand -1,783 -191 1,397 459 38 44 263 2,833

DEMAND FOR RELATED TRADES

Replacement Demand 47 46 43 39 41 44 47 453

Expansion Demand -48 -57 -83 33 10 13 11 121

Total Related Demand -1 -11 -40 72 51 57 58 575

Total Demand for Certificate -1,784 - 202 1,357 531 89 360 321 3,408

Figure 10- Automotive Service Technician

*2018 estimated

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CARPENTER 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) 6% 11% 0% 1% 3% 4%

Completions 411 312 297 306 391 405 417 4,110

Avg. Annual Change (%) -24% -5% 3% 28% 4% 3%

Completion Rate 20% 18% 20% 20% 24% 24% 24% 24%



Expansion Demand 354 2,051 - 1,229 741 104 40 136 880

Total Principal Demand 526 2,263 - 1,041 955 341 268 381 3,331



Expansion Demand 482 16 1,567 590 167 5 77 410

Total Related Demand 667 203 1,799 825 421 274 352 3,128

Total Demand for Certificate 1,193 2,465 758 1,780 762 558 734 6,459

CONSTRUCTION ELECTRICIAN

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) -9% 1% -8% 3% 10% 4%

Completions 762 771 822 831 1,038 1,051 1,099 10,749

Avg. Annual Change (%) 1% 7% 1% 25% 1% 5%

Completion Rate 50% 61% 64% 53% 55% 55% 55% 55%



Expansion Demand -420 -1,750 504 560 308 115 175 1,449

Total Principal Demand -137 -1,516 752 693 446 167 343 3,042



Expansion Demand -96 373 142 203 109 27 38 324

Total Related Demand 50 533 308 351 267 195 213 2,038

Total Demand for Certificate -86 -983 1,060 1,044 713 460 556 5,080

Figure 11- Carpenter

Figure 12- Construction Electrician

*2018 estimated

*2018 estimated


COOK 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) 2% -5% -10% 0% 6% 5%

Completions 237 210 189 666 265 252 268 2,597

Avg. Annual Change (%) -11% -10% 252% -60% -5% 6%

Completion Rate 19% 16% 13% 47% 23% 23% 23% 23%



Expansion Demand -204 -316 554 61 1 45 26 354

Total Principal Demand -164 -281 599 104 46 129 77 852



Expansion Demand 756 -1,105 -737 187 -29 98 54 760

Total Related Demand 919 -965 -612 287 82 226 199 2,129

Total Demand for Certificate 755 -1,246 - 14 391 128 320 276 2,981

HAIRSTYLIST 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) -27% -19% -45% -4% -1% 4%

Completions 72 78 75 48 29 18 18 182

Avg. Annual Change (%) 8% -4% -36% -39% -38% 1%

Completion Rate 14% 15% 13% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10%



Expansion Demand -935 830 -694 406 -206 50 34 417

Total Principal Demand -867 912 -624 498 -110 70 131 1,382



Expansion Demand 288 1,361 -237 291 -134 44 31 374

Total Related Demand 328 1,418 -182 343 -75 114 114 1,138

Total Demand for Certificate -539 2,330 -806 842 -184 260 244 2,520

Figure 13- Cook

Figure 14- Hairstylist

*2018 estimated

*2018 estimated


HEAVY-DUTY EQUIPMENT TECHNICIAN

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) -28% -8% 20% 1% 4% 2%

Completions 162 252 270 240 256 289 299 2,943

Avg. Annual Change (%) 56% 7% -11% 7% 13% 4%

Completion Rate 59% 100% 95% 63% 64% 64% 64% 64%



Expansion Demand 594 363 605 200 41 39 22 306

Total Principal Demand 716 496 757 347 188 43 157 1,687




Total Related Demand -109 95 113 95 63 50 49 493

Total Demand for Certificate 608 591 870 442 251 231 205 2,180

INDUSTRIAL MECHANIC (MILLWRIGHT)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) -7% -22% 9% -1% 0% -2%

Completions 141 189 198 225 212 214 212 2,129

Avg. Annual Change (%) 34% 5% 14% -6% 1% -1%

Completion Rate 65% 100% 81% 73% 65% 65% 65% 65%



Expansion Demand 1,285 -485 357 65 -19 -4 -19 -115

Total Principal Demand 1,406 -379 474 173 98 36 81 913



Expansion Demand 34 22 -81 45 23 6 5 54

Total Related Demand 74 64 -42 75 56 42 42 419

Total Demand for Certificate 1,480 -316 432 248 154 144 122 1,333

Figure 15- Heavy-Duty Equipment Technician

Figure 16- Industrial Mechanic (Millwright)

*2018 estimated

*2018 estimated


PLUMBER 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028


New Registrations 882 870 969 936 971 1,033 1,099 10,661

Avg. Annual Change (%) -1% 11% -3% 4% 10% 6%

Completions 306 297 300 324 415 441 471 4,563

Avg. Annual Change (%) -3% 1% 8% 28% 6% 7%

Completion Rate 34% 39% 42% 43% 44% 44% 44% 44%



Expansion Demand -1,569 996 130 384 218 89 124 1,062

Total Principal Demand -1,475 1,111 249 456 297 31 228 2,033




Total Related Demand 29 -27 233 60 59 38 42 399

Total Demand for Certificate -1,446 1,085 481 517 356 216 270 2,432

STEAMFITTER/PIPEFITTER 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) -14% -42% -12% 1% 9% 0%

Completions 36 63 48 57 68 59 60 591

Avg. Annual Change (%) 75% -24% 19% 19% -13% 2%

Completion Rate 45% 59% 34% 31% 40% 40% 40% 40%




Total Principal Demand -7 -339 495 113 39 17 38 377




Total Related Demand -17 -10 126 35 30 21 23 220

Total Demand for Certificate -24 -349 621 149 68 59 61 597

Figure 17- Plumber

Figure 18- Steamfitter/Pipefitter

*2018 estimated

*2018 estimated


WELDER 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*AVERAGE 2019-2023

AVERAGE 2024-2028

TOTAL 2019-2028



Avg. Annual Change (%) 101% -21% -21% 2% 6% -2%

Completions 330 177 105 135 106 90 89 898

Avg. Annual Change (%) -46% -41% 29% -22% -15% -1%

Completion Rate 31% 16% 15% 24% 25% 25% 25% 25%



Expansion Demand -1,066 446 685 129 83 19 4 118

Total Principal Demand -984 538 792 222 181 59 109 1,145




Total Related Demand -212 157 184 123 112 64 67 655

Total Demand for Certificate -1,196 695 975 345 293 184 176 1,800

Figure 19- Welder

*2018 estimated


apprentice demand in the top ten red seal trades...total demand for certificate - 1,040 4,070 5,735...

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