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XP PresidentialPoll

June, 2018

2

Political Analysis

Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register#

May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018

May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018

May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - -

June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018



XP Presidential Polls

XP Presidential Poll - Details

Conducted by:

Instituto de pesquisas sociais,

políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)

Sample:

1000 interviews/each week

Coverage:

National

Method:

Phone call interviews

Margin of Error:

1000 interviews: 3.2. p.p.

3

Political Analysis

GENDER REGION

MALE 48% NORTH 8%

FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%

AGE SOUTHEAST 43%

16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%

18 TO 34 YO 33% MIDWEST 7%

35 TO 54 YO 41% TYPE OF CITY

+55 YO 26% CAPITAL TOWNS 25%

OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 14%

WORKING 64% COUNTRY TOWNS 61%

NOT WORKING 36% CITY SIZE

INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 30%

E CLASS (< 1 MW) 20% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 22%

D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 30% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 15%

C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 33% > 500.000 HAB 32%

B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 13% RELIGION

A CLASS (> 20 MW) 4% CATHOLIC 61%

DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 22%

EDUCATION LEVEL HAVE NO RELIGION 0%

ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 13% SPIRITTUALISM 3%

MIDDLE SCHOOL 21% OTHER 6%

HIGH SCHOOL 45% ADVENTITST 1%

HIGHER EDUCATION 21% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 0%

VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)

Voter profile: current week distribution

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

4

Political AnalysisHighlights

This week, XP Presidential Poll shows little or no change in first-round scenarios. In

second-round scenarios, Bolsonaro continues to recede and fell between 1 p.p. and 2 p.p.

(within the margin of error) in all four scenarios in which he is considered. He still looses to

Lula (33% to 41%) and remains technically tied to Geraldo Alckmin (32% to 31%), Marina

Silva (32% to 36%) and Ciro Gomes (33% to 32%).

The majority of the voters doesnt care about the elections yet. On the one hand, as the

World Cup kicks in the number of voters uninterested in the election (not interested + bit

interested) grew from 51% in the previous week to 56% now. On the other hand, even with

the start of the most popular sport event in the world, it wasn’t able to curb the rejection

rate of the current administration that marked a new high at 85%

For the first time, the electorate was asked about their opinion on controversial themes.

Bolsonaro’s voters were those most in favor of the right to keep and bear arms, to reduce

the legal age from 18 years to 16 years old, death penalty, military intervention and

privatizations. Geraldo Alckmin’s voters, however were those most in favor of a pension

reform.

5

Political Analysis

1.Electoral Scenarios

2.Assessing the electorate & Microdata

Analysis

XP Poll

6

Political Analysis

40%

27%

13% 13%

2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%

IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR? (SPONTANEOUS)

33%

42%

37% 37%

40%

33%

19%

25%

28%27%

13%

18%

14%13% 13%

11%12%

14%

12%

13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

May Wk3 May Wk4 May Wk5 (TS*) Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3

Dont Know/Didn't Answer

None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Lula

Voting Intention - Spontaneous

JuneWeek 3


7

Political Analysis

29%

22%

13%

10%

8%

5% 5%

2% 2% 1% 1% 1%

IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY AND THE CANDIDATES WERE____, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?

29%

27%

30%29% 29%

22%

25%

23%22% 22%

13% 13% 13% 13% 13%

9% 9% 9%8% 8%

11%9%

11% 11% 10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Marina

Ciro

Alckmin

Scenario 1 – PT presents no candidate

JuneWeek 3


8

Political Analysis

28%

21%

14%

10%

8%

5%4%

3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%


29%

24%

27% 27%28%

22%

26%

22%21% 21%

13%14%

13% 13%14%

9% 9%8% 8% 8%

11% 10%11%

10% 10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Marina

Ciro

Alckmin

Scenario 2 – with Fernando Haddad (PT)

JuneWeek 3


9

Political Analysis

28%

19%18%

10%

7%5% 4% 4%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1%


30%

28%

30%29%

28%

23%

25%

20%19% 19%

17%

13%

15%16%

18%

9% 8%7% 7%

7%

8%

10% 10% 10% 10%

6% 5% 6% 6%5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Lula

Marina

Alckmin

Ciro

Scenario 3 – with Lula (PT)

JuneWeek 3


10

Political Analysis

24%

19%

12%11%

8% 8%

5%4% 3%

2% 2% 1% 1%


Scenario 4 – Haddad with Lula’s support

JuneWeek 3


25%

19%

24%

21%

20%19%

11% 11%12%

9% 9% 8%

11% 10% 11%

8% 8% 8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jun Wk1 Jun Wk2 Jun Wk3

None/Blank/Null

Bolsonaro

Fernando Haddad,supported by Lula

Marina

Alckmin

Ciro

11

Political Analysis

34%

21%

18%

4%

1%

6%4%

2%

0%

4%

0%

8%

30%

18% 18%

8%

2%0%

7%

3% 2% 2%3%

0%

41%

21%

13%

10%

4%3% 2% 2% 2%

1% 1% 1%0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Lula's Vote Migration

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4

Vote Migration

MICRODATA SPECIAL


12

Political Analysis

35%36%

40%42%

41%

37%38%

35%34%

33%

26%24% 24%

22%

24%

2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%


IF THERE'S A 2nd ROUND, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR IF THE OPTIONS WERE:

None/Blank/Null

Lula

Jair Bolsonaro

Don't Know/Didn't Answer

31%

28%30% 29% 28%

15%

25%

20% 19% 19%

47%49%

41% 40% 41%

6% 6%7% 6% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%



None/Blank/Null

Geraldo Alckmin

Fernando Haddad


2nd Round Scenarios


13

Political Analysis

31% 31%

36%

38%36%

35%37%

35%34%

32%

31%30%

28%

25%

28%

3% 2% 1%3% 3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



None/Blank/Null

Marina


Bolsonaro

33%

35%34% 33%

32%

29%28%

29%

31%

31%

34% 34%

34%

30%

34%

4% 3% 3%

5%

3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%



None/Blank/Null

Geraldo Alckmin


Bolsonaro

2nd Round Scenarios


14

Political Analysis

36%

38%

35%34% 33%

29%29% 33% 33% 32%

32%

29% 29%

27%

29%

4% 3%2%

7% 6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



None/Blank/Null

Ciro


Bolsonaro

32% 30%

29%

31% 32%

27% 27%

32%

30% 30%

38%39%

38%36%

34%

3% 4%2% 3%

4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



None/Blank/Null

Ciro


Alckmin

2nd Round Scenarios


15

Political Analysis

29%

19%

9% 8% 8%

5% 5%

2% 2% 2% 1% 1%

Candidates Strong-Minded Votes- 'Will surely vote for' -

Voter conviction


16

Political Analysis

60% 60% 60% 60%58% 58%

53%

46%45%

41%40%

36%

Candidates Rejection- 'Wouldn't vote in any scenario' -

Rejection


17

Political Analysis

58%55%

53%

45%

35%

29%26%

13%11%

8%

4%1%

Unfamiliarity Rate- 'Don't know enough' -

Unfamiliarity


18

Political Analysis

Would

Surely Vote

Could

Vote

Wouldn't

Vote

Dont't Know

Enough

Don'tKnow/

Didn'tAnswerTotal

LULA 29% 10% 60% 1% 1% 100%

BOLSONARO 19% 12% 53% 13% 4% 100%

MARINA 9% 27% 60% 4% 1% 100%

CIRO 8% 21% 60% 11% 1% 100%

ALCKMIN 8% 20% 60% 8% 4% 100%

HADDAD 5% 10% 58% 26% 0% 100%

A. DIAS 5% 14% 45% 35% 1% 100%

AMOÊDO 2% 4% 36% 58% 1% 100%

MANUELA 2% 7% 46% 45% 0% 100%

MEIRELLES 2% 11% 58% 29% 1% 100%

BOULOS 1% 5% 41% 53% 0% 100%

FLAVIO R. 1% 4% 40% 55% 0% 100%

I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T

VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.

Conviction, recognition and rejection.

JuneWeek 3


19

Political Analysis

31%

27%

25%

5% 4% 4%2% 2% 1%

JAIRBOLSONARO

DON'T KNOW LULA GERALDOALCKMIN

CIRO GOMES MARINA SILVA ÁLVARO DIAS DIDN'TANSWER

HENRIQUEMEIRELLES

IN YOUR OPINION, WHO'S GOING TO WIN THE ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT ?

Expectation of Victory

JuneWeek 3


30%

34%32% 31% 31%

26% 25%

19%

26%27%

23%21% 23% 23%

25%

7%6% 6% 5%

5%

3% 4%5%

4% 4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


Don't Know

Lula

Alckmin

Bolsonaro

Ciro

20

Political Analysis

1.Electoral Scenarios

2.Assessing the electorate & Microdata

Analysis

XP Poll

21

Political Analysis

36%32% 34% 31%

37%

19%21%

21%20%

19%

19% 22% 18%20%

21%

25% 24% 26% 28%23%


HOW INTERESTED ARE YOU IN THE ELECTIONS THAT WILL HAPPEN IN OCTOBER?

VERY INTERESTED

MORE OR LESSINTERESTED

A BIT INTERESTED

NOT INTERESTED

Interest in the election


22

Political Analysis

GENDER REGION

MALE -10% NORTH 0%


AGE SOUTHEAST 2%

16 & 17 YO 0% SOUTH 0%

18 TO 34 YO -1% MIDWEST -2%


+55 YO -4% CAPITAL TOWNS -1%


WORKING -4% COUNTRY TOWNS -3%


INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB -6%

E CLASS (< 1 MW) 8% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 2%


C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) -6% > 500.000 HAB -1%

B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) -5% RELIGION

A CLASS (> 20 MW) -3% CATHOLIC 0%

DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL -1%




HIGH SCHOOL 0% ADVENTITST 0%

HIGHER EDUCATION -4% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 0%

UNDECIDED'S VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL) -SCENARIO 2Deviation to Population Average

GENDER REGION

MALE -8% NORTH 0%


AGE SOUTHEAST -1%

16 & 17 YO 0% SOUTH -3%

18 TO 34 YO 2% MIDWEST -3%


+55 YO -3% CAPITAL TOWNS 2%




INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB -7%

E CLASS (< 1 MW) 9% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 3%


C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) -7% > 500.000 HAB 0%


A CLASS (> 20 MW) -2% CATHOLIC 1%

DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL -2%




HIGH SCHOOL -3% ADVENTITST 1%



Voter Profile

MICRODATA SPECIAL

Undecided w/o Lula

Slightly prevalence of: female, with lower income.

Slightly prevalence of: female, with lower income from the NE.

Undecided w/o PT candidate


23

Political Analysis

GENDER REGION

MALE -7% NORTH -1%

FEMALE 7% NORTHEAST -5%

AGE SOUTHEAST 6%

16 & 17 YO 0% SOUTH 1%

18 TO 34 YO 0% MIDWEST -2%


+55 YO -1% CAPITAL TOWNS 1%




INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB -6%

E CLASS (< 1 MW) 4% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 3%


C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) -6% > 500.000 HAB 1%


A CLASS (> 20 MW) -1% CATHOLIC -3%

DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 1%




HIGH SCHOOL -1% ADVENTITST 0%



Voter Profile

MICRODATA SPECIALCore Undecided

Slightly prevalence of: female, from big cities from the SE.


24

Political Analysis

3%

12%

85%

0%

GREAT/GOOD REGULAR BAD/VERY BAD DON'T KNOW / DIDN'T ANSWER

HOW DO YOU EVALUATE MICHEL TEMER'S GOVERNMENT SO FAR?

President Approval

JuneWeek 3


5% 5% 3% 4% 3%

30%21%

15% 14%12%

64%73%

81% 81% 85%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


25

Political Analysis

81%

61%

49% 48%44% 43%

40% 38%

27%

20% 18%

16%

32%

44%

38% 44%52%

54%52%

64%75% 80%

3%7% 7%

15%12%

5% 6%10% 9%

5%2%

REDUCE LEGALAGE TO 16ys

ABORTION INCASE OF RAPE

DEATHPENALTY

GOVT.INTERVENTION

IN ECON.

SAME SEXMARRIAGE

RIGHT TO KEEPAND BEAR

ARMS

PENSIONREFORM

MILITARYINTERVENTION

PRIVATIZATION ABORTIONLEGALIZATION

MARIJUANALEGALIZATION

ARE YOU IN FAVOR OR AGAINST _____:

IN FAVOR

AGAINST

DON'TKNOW /DIDN'TANSWER


Major Themes

26

Political Analysis


Major Themes by Candidate

MICRODATA SPECIAL

41%

24%20% 20% 18% 16%

13% 11%

55%

71%76% 75% 79% 79%

79% 82%

4% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4%8% 7%

CIRO GOMES LULA MARINA SILVA TOTAL JAIR BOLSONARO GERALDO ALCKMIN UNDECIDED ÁLVARO DIAS

ABORTION LEGALIZATION

IN FAVOR

AGAINST


82%

64% 64% 62% 61% 61% 60%

51%

16%

32% 32%32% 32% 34% 36%

36%

2%5% 4% 6% 7% 5% 4%

13%

CIRO GOMES ÁLVARO DIAS LULA JAIR BOLSONARO TOTAL MARINA SILVA GERALDO ALCKMIN UNDECIDED

ABORTION IN CASE OF RAPE

IN FAVOR

AGAINST


27

Political Analysis

74%

48% 46%43%

40%

33%30%

22%

24%

50% 52%52%

51% 63% 69%

69%

3% 2% 1%5%

9%4%

1%

10%

JAIR BOLSONARO ÁLVARO DIAS GERALDO ALCKMIN TOTAL UNDECIDED LULA MARINA SILVA CIRO GOMES

RIGHT TO KEEP AND BEAR ARMS

IN FAVOR

AGAINST


39%

24%18% 18% 16%

13% 12% 11%

57%

75%

80% 81% 82% 87%85%

80%

4%1% 2% 1% 1% 0%

3%9%

CIRO GOMES MARINA SILVA TOTAL LULA JAIR BOLSONARO GERALDO ALCKMIN UNDECIDED ÁLVARO DIAS

MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION

IN FAVOR

AGAINST




MICRODATA SPECIAL

28

Political Analysis

95%

87%82% 81% 79% 79%

74% 73%

5%

10%16% 16%

13%19%

23% 25%

1% 3% 2% 3%7%

2% 3% 2%

JAIR BOLSONARO GERALDO ALCKMIN ÁLVARO DIAS TOTAL UNDECIDED MARINA SILVA LULA CIRO GOMES

REDUCE LEGAL AGE TO 16ys (from 18)

IN FAVOR

AGAINST


66%

50% 49% 49%45% 43%

39%36%

29%

43% 44% 42% 49%51%

55%

54%

5% 7% 7% 8%6% 6% 6%

10%

JAIR BOLSONARO ÁLVARO DIAS TOTAL UNDECIDED LULA MARINA SILVA CIRO GOMES GERALDO ALCKMIN

DEATH PENALTY

IN FAVOR

AGAINST




MICRODATA SPECIAL

29

Political Analysis

63%

53% 51%

44%40%

37%33% 32%

27%

36% 39%

44%46% 51%

57%

41%

10% 11% 10% 12% 13% 12% 10%

27%

CIRO GOMES MARINA SILVA LULA TOTAL UNDECIDED GERALDO ALCKMIN JAIR BOLSONARO ÁLVARO DIAS

SAME SEX MARRIAGE

IN FAVOR

AGAINST


63%

38% 38% 37% 35%32%

27%24%

30%

52%48% 51% 57%

55% 63% 69%

7%10%

14% 12%8%

14%10% 8%

JAIR BOLSONARO TOTAL UNDECIDED GERALDO ALCKMIN MARINA SILVA ÁLVARO DIAS LULA CIRO GOMES

MILITARY INTERVENTION

IN FAVOR

AGAINST




MICRODATA SPECIAL

30

Political Analysis

57%53% 52%

48% 48% 46%41% 41%

35%

31%

40%

39% 38%36%

35% 34%

8%

16%

8%14% 15%

18%24% 25%

MARINA SILVA CIRO GOMES JAIR BOLSONARO LULA TOTAL GERALDO ALCKMIN UNDECIDED ÁLVARO DIAS

GOVT. INTERVENTION IN THE ECONOMY

IN FAVOR

AGAINST


49%

41%36%

27% 25% 23% 21%

10%

42%

48% 57%

64%63% 66% 69%

83%

9%11%

7% 9%12% 11% 10%

7%

JAIR BOLSONARO ÁLVARO DIAS GERALDO ALCKMIN TOTAL CIRO GOMES UNDECIDED MARINA SILVA LULA

PRIVATIZATIONS

IN FAVOR

AGAINST




MICRODATA SPECIAL

31

Political Analysis

67%

49%44% 43%

40%37%

34%28%

25%

45%50% 50% 54%

57%59%

66%

7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6%

GERALDO ALCKMIN JAIR BOLSONARO MARINA SILVA ÁLVARO DIAS TOTAL CIRO GOMES UNDECIDED LULA

PENSION REFORM

IN FAVOR

AGAINST




MICRODATA SPECIAL

32

Political AnalysisDisclaimer

This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).

XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or

severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this

communication.

All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any

other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that

any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances

or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.

This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a

solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is

confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.

In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results

presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in

violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.

Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in

this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,

políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.

apresentação do powerpoint - polibiobraga.com.br · 3 political analysis gender region male 48%...

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