april 6, 2020 covid-19 economic update - national ......dentists, physicians temporary staffing...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: April 6, 2020 Covid-19 Economic Update - National ......Dentists, Physicians Temporary Staffing Clothing & Apparel Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics • JoblossesforMarch totaled](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042915/5f53501665425475ec5f297e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Covid-19 Economic Update
April 6, 2020
![Page 2: April 6, 2020 Covid-19 Economic Update - National ......Dentists, Physicians Temporary Staffing Clothing & Apparel Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics • JoblossesforMarch totaled](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042915/5f53501665425475ec5f297e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Coronavirus Economic Impacts
-500-450-400-350-300-250-200-150-100
-500
Job Losses by Industry, March 2020Dentists, Physicians
Temporary Staffing
Clothing & Apparel
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Job losses for March totaled 701,000, far exceeding expectations given the brunt of losses were not included in this report.
• Not surprising, food anddrinking establishments wereresponsible for most of the losses.
• The only sector to gain ameasurable number of jobs was government, largely due to the temporary hiring of Census workers (+18,000).
Food & DrinkingEstablishments
![Page 3: April 6, 2020 Covid-19 Economic Update - National ......Dentists, Physicians Temporary Staffing Clothing & Apparel Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics • JoblossesforMarch totaled](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042915/5f53501665425475ec5f297e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Coronavirus Economic Impacts
-1 1 2 3 4
New Orleans
Orlando
Boston
Nassau/Suffolk Counties, NY
Honolulu
Miami
Las Vegas
San Francisco
Kahului, HI
New York
Moody’s Analytics Top 10 Economic Exposure by Metro Area/Division
Exposure to virus Demographics Trade/travel disruptions
Tourism Finance Commodities
Source: Moody’s Analytics
• Areas are rated by sixfactors: exposure to the virus, demographics, trade/travel disruptions, tourism, finance and commodities.
• Virus exposure and demographics are primarily behind New York City’s top ranking while tourism plays a larger role in Hawaii, Las Vegas and Orlando.
![Page 4: April 6, 2020 Covid-19 Economic Update - National ......Dentists, Physicians Temporary Staffing Clothing & Apparel Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics • JoblossesforMarch totaled](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042915/5f53501665425475ec5f297e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Coronavirus Economic Impacts
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Thou
sand
s
Economic Policy Uncertainty News-Based Index
Source: Baker, Scott R., Bloom, Nick and Davis, Stephen J., Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: News-Based Index for the United States retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis April 5, 2020.
• The news component of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is based on key words in news coverage in ten major newspapers.
• The index, which averages 100, hit its highest level inMarch since the data series began in 1985.
March 2020
![Page 5: April 6, 2020 Covid-19 Economic Update - National ......Dentists, Physicians Temporary Staffing Clothing & Apparel Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics • JoblossesforMarch totaled](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042915/5f53501665425475ec5f297e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Apartment Industry Impacts• Demand continues to be impacted by fear of job losses, decreased income and fear of contracting
COVID-19.• A large construction pipeline for multifamily is a liability as demand pauses. Nearly 90,000 units were
delivered in Q1 2020 due to warm weather.• Vacant apartments are now deep into rent losses on a two-week basis and the current trajectory will
set rents negative for the year before mid-April. • Multifamily rent growth is declining for all property’s classes, most notably for 4- and 5-star properties.• Honolulu, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Orlando have suffered rent losses nearly 1.5% in March 2020.• Multifamily sales volumes reflect stable income properties in uncertain times are unlikely to trade. In
the last three years, sales volume in March ranged between $8-$10 billion; in March 2020 it stood around $2 billion.
• Despite the challenges facing multifamily, stability is still expected. Renters need a place to live and the federal stimulus package is expected to help tide things over in the short-term.
Source: The Coronavirus Pandemic by CoStar Group, April 1, 2020