april 9, 2009 - ncdot

900 Chapel Street, Suite 1400 New Haven, Connecticut 06510 203.865.2191 f 203.624.0484 www.WilburSmith.com

April 9, 2009 Mr. David Joyner Executive Director North Carolina Turnpike Authority 5400 Glenwood Avenue, Suite 400 Raleigh, NC 27612 Re: Monroe Connector/Bypass 2009 Update to Preliminary Study Dear Mr. Joyner: Wilbur Smith Associates (WSA) is pleased to provide herewith our updated traffic and revenue findings for the Monroe Connector/Bypass. WSA prepared a preliminary traffic and revenue study1 for the proposed facility in 2006. The 2006 study was conducted at a preliminary feasibility level, commonly referred to as a “Level 2” traffic and revenue analysis. The Level 2 analysis is intended to provide preliminary estimates of traffic, revenue and toll rate sensitivity. This level of study is not intended for use in direct sup-port of project financing. The NCTA needs to have preliminary financial information for planning purposes and has asked for an update to the preliminary study in advance of the completion of any investment grade studies. The purpose of this update is to provide new information sufficient to allow the NCTA to prepare new preliminary financing plans for the project. However, the forecasts are still con-sidered to be at Level 2 and are not suitable for financial implementation. A comprehensive, in-vestment-grade study of the Monroe Connector/Bypass is underway now, and the results will be available later this year. Several key changes to the project have occurred since the completion of the preliminary study. These changes are significant enough to warrant updates to the traffic and revenue forecasts to be compatible with corresponding updates to capital, operating, and financing costs that have also be made over the past three years. 1Proposed Monroe Connector Preliminary Traffic and Revenue Study, Wilbur Smith Associates for North Carolina Turnpike Authority, October 11, 2006.

2009 Update for Monroe Connector/Bypass

Preliminary Traffic and Revenue Study

April 9, 2009

Open Road Tolling – The NCTA has decided to implement open road tolling (ORT) on the Triangle Expressway and will likely use the same collection method for other toll pro-jects, including the Monroe Connector/Bypass. The preliminary study for the Monroe Connector/Bypass was based on an assumed barrier system for cash and electronic toll collection. Under the new plan, the system would operate at highway speeds and would use both video and ETC methods of collection without a cash option on the road. The toll rate plan has also changed with ETC rates assumed to be discounted from base video toll rates. The change in these assumptions effects expected toll revenues and toll operat-ing and maintenance costs.

Alignment and Interchanges - Environmental and engineering studies are underway for

the Monroe project, and cost estimates have been updated accordingly. Potential align-ments and interchanges are being considered which differ from the assumptions in the 2006 study. The two sections of the project, Monroe Bypass and Monroe Connector are now projected to begin operations at the same time in January 2014 instead in a phased opening.

UPDATE PROCEDURES

This update is based primarily upon the 2006 preliminary study including using the same re-gional transportation planning model available for the earlier study. Key revisions and updates to the analytical procedure include:

Metrolina Regional Transportation Demand Model – The MPO regional model was the basis for the update. Various project-level calibration adjustments made for the pre-liminary study were carried through to the update.

Tolling Plan – The tolling assumption for the preliminary study was for two toll collec-

tion methods, cash and electronic toll collection (ETC). The tolls were assumed to be collected via a barrier system for cash and high-speed collection for ETC customers. Fol-lowing studies conducted for the Triangle Expressway in the Triangle Region, the NCTA decided to operate without cash and instead collect tolls either via ETC or video identifi-cation. Under the video collection procedure, images of vehicle license plates would be captured. NCTA account holders would be identified and accounts charged for each transaction. In the case of vehicles not preregistered with the NCTA, vehicle owners would be identified by DMV records and sent an invoice if the vehicle operator did not pay within specified time limits. This change in toll collection procedures was reflected by preparing a new toll zone location plan.



April 9, 2009

Alignment and Interchange Configuration – Since completion of the preliminary study, alternative alignments and interchange configurations have been analyzed as part of the environmental review process. Alternative 1 described later is similar in location to one of the scenarios analyzed for the 2006 preliminary study except for the location of tolling zones. Alternative 2, described later, was not analyzed in the preliminary study, but is the same configuration as Alternative 1 except for the western terminus.

Historic Traffic Volumes – The volumes along US 74, the key competitive route to the

project, were reviewed and compared against the growth rates forecast in the regional transportation demand model. Adjustments were made to the traffic forecasts as a result of this review since the traffic, according to NCDOT traffic data, has decreased in the 2005-2007 period.

Value of Time and Vehicle Operating Cost – The value of time and vehicle operating

cost, two key model parameters, were reviewed. Adjustments to the base year model rates were made based on historical changes in inflation and in the price of fuel since the preliminary study.

Toll Rate Sensitivity – The price sensitivity to the new plan for toll rates was analyzed

for 2015 and 2030.

Toll Rates – New toll rates were also developed as a result of the change in the tolling plan and the revised toll sensitivity. Under the new plan, the base rate is the video Class 1 (passenger vehicle rate). Class 1 ETC rates are discounted by 35 percent in accordance with legislation passed in 2008. Rates for medium, single-unit (Class 2) and heavy, multi-unit (Class 3) trucks are multiples of the Class 1 video and ETC rates. In addition, the toll rates were set so that the average toll per mile for all customers of the same vehi-cle class and collection method is uniform. Finally toll rates were assumed be increased annually rather than every five years as was assumed for the preliminary study. This as-sumption is similar to the plan adopted for the Triangle Expressway.

Fiscal Year Basis – The traffic and revenue forecasts for this 2009 Update were prepared

on a fiscal year basis (July-June) to be in conformity with the capital, maintenance, and operating costs used in the preliminary plan of finance. The forecasts in the 2006 study were on a calendar year basis. All yearly references in this report are to fiscal years ex-cept for historical references and the comparison to the traffic and revenue forecasts in the 2006 preliminary study.

Revenue Leakage – Finally estimates were made for revenue losses from equipment/

system failures or inability to identify or collect from video customers and to a lesser ex-



April 9, 2009

tent, ETC customers. The procedure was developed for the Triangle Expressway com-prehensive traffic and revenue study and is base on assumed percentages for equipment failure and collection rates. The preliminary study for the Monroe project did not address potential revenue leakage.

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

Figure 1 depicts the project location and its relationship to the surrounding transportation system. Two alternative alignments at the western end are under consideration. Alternative 1 provides a direct connection to I-485. Alternative 2 follows the same alignment for most of its length but does not connect directly to I-485. Instead it connects with US 74 and then to I-485 via a seg-ment on US 74 that would be improved as part of Alternative 2. The Monroe Connector/Bypass would follow a generally northwest-southeast orientation, essen-tially paralleling US 74. US 74 is a major facility that connects southeastern North Carolina to the Charlotte metropolitan area. It provides access between the Port of Wilmington and the New Hanover and Brunswick County beaches and Charlotte and points west. With the Monroe Con-nector/Bypass, drivers would have a high-speed, controlled access facility between Monroe and Charlotte, which would reduce congestion on the heavily-utilized US 74. The proposed Monroe Connector/Bypass would provide significant time savings for travelers moving between I-485 south of Charlotte and Monroe or points south and east. US 74 would be the primary competing route to the Monroe Connector. US 74, a signalized arterial route, currently carries very high traffic volumes, particularly be-tween I-485 and Monroe as indicated on Figure 2. Near Monroe, over 50,000 vehicles per day (vpd) use US 74. East of Monroe the volumes drop to less than 25,000 vpd. However, as indi-cated in the figure, average annual daily traffic has reduced somewhat between 2005 and 2007, the last year for which traffic information was available from the NC Department of Transporta-tion. The 2007 volumes are generally 2,000 vehicles per day less than the 2005 volumes. ALTERNATIVE 1 CONFIGURATION The proposed Monroe Connector/Bypass, as shown in Figure 3, would extend for approximately 19.5 miles from the interchange of US 74/I-485 near Matthews, at the northern end of the project to US 74 east of Wingate. Alternative 1 would have eight full interchanges and two half inter-changes including an interchange where US 74 currently connects with I-485, the Charlotte Outer Loop. Figure 3 also shows the conceptual location of the five mainline and two ramp toll zones, which have been sited to allow for toll collection for all movements on the Monroe By-pass/Connector. Since the NCTA has adopted a cashless system, all toll zones would allow for

Proposed Monroe Connector/Bypass Preliminary Traffic and Revenue Study - 2009 Update

FIGURE 1REGIONAL LOCATION MAP

NC 103171 / 1-27-09 / Regional Location Map. mxd

485

MonroeAirport

601

74

207

74

84

75 200

Monroe

Charlotte

Union

Wingate

Marshville

Waxhaw

Matthews

485

Cabarrus

Anson

Mecklenburg

Lancaster

Stanly

200

205

205

742

218

74

601

521

521

51

51

16

16

200

742

138

218

Alternative 2

Alternative 1

York

Union

LEGENDInterchangeMonroe Connector/Bypass

0 2 4

Miles

485

MonroeAirport

601

74

200

74

84

75200

Monroe

Wingate

Matthews

3736

-2.7%

4847

-2.1%

5452

-3.7%

5147

-7.8%

2927

-6.9%2725

-7.4%

2824

-14.3%

2119

-9.5%

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

Union

Mecklenburg

Proposed Monroe Connector/Bypass Preliminary Traffic and Revenue Study - 2009 Update

FIGURE 2

ANNUAL AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC COUNTSAT SELECTED STUDY AREA LOCATIONS

NC 103171 / 1-27-09 / Annual Average Daily Traffic.mxd

0 1 2

Miles

LEGEND

Volumes are in thousands.

0000

00.0%

20052007Percent Change2005 - 2007

Count Location

Source: North Carolina Department of Transportation.

FIGURE 3ALTERNATIVE 1 TOLL SYSTEM CONFIGURATION

NC 103171 / 1-27-09 / Alternative 1 Toll System. mxd Proposed Monroe Connector/Bypass Preliminary Traffic and Revenue Study - 2009 Update

485

MonroeAirport

601

74

74

75 Monroe Wingate

Matthews

84

200

200

21851

51

200

207

Union

Mecklenburg

LEGENDAlternative 1InterchangeInterchange With Ramp Toll ZoneMainline Toll Zone

0 1 2

Miles



April 9, 2009 Page 5

either electronic or video toll collection as discussed earlier. Traffic would not slow down at any toll zone. ALTERNATIVE 2 CONFIGURATION Figure 4 depicts a 19.8-mile second alternative in which the western end would connect to I-485 via an improved US 74 that would allow toll road traffic to access I-485 along a mixed traffic segment of US 74. This improved segment would be grade-separated and high-speed and would allow for tolled and non-tolled through movements and local access via service roads. Effec-tively this short segment could be perceived as part of the toll road by toll road customers; there-fore the tolls at the tolling zone between US 74 and Indian Trail-Fairview Road reflect this per-ception. Through traffic on US 74 would also be tolled. A non-toll alternative for US 74 through traffic would be available using the parallel service roads. Figure 5 illustrates the toll and non-toll traffic flow on US 74 under Alternative 2. The Stallings Road half interchange would be eliminated in Alternative 2. Access for potential toll road customers that would use this interchange in Alternative 1 would be via either US 74 or Indian Trail-Fairview Road, both of which involve longer travel times.

VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION AND TOLL RATES

Toll rates for the Monroe Connector/Bypass were reanalyzed for 2015 and 2030 and new toll rates developed to conform to current NCTA vehicle classification and toll policy. The vehicle classifications, toll premiums and discounts, and toll setting frequency developed for the Trian-gle Expressway were also assumed for the Monroe Connector/Bypass. VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION POLICY

Class 1, Light Vehicles – Included in this class are automobiles, pick-up trucks, passen-ger and service vans, sports utility vehicles, and motor cycles.

Class 2, Medium Vehicles – Included in this class are single unit trucks larger than pickup trucks including 2-axle, 6-tire vehicles; passenger buses; recreational vehicles and any Class 1 vehicle that is towing a trailer.

Class 3, Heavy Trucks – Included in this class are all multi-unit vehicles with four or more axles and all oversize vehicles.

TOLL RATE POLICY AND TOLL EQUITY The toll rate for Class 1 vehicles is the rate on which the rates for other vehicle classes are based. The following premiums were selected for the Class 2 and Class 3 vehicles:

Class 2, Medium (Single-unit) Vehicles – Two times the Class 1 rate. Class 3, Heavy (Multi-unit) Trucks – Four times the Class 1 rate.

FIGURE 4ALTERNATIVE 2 TOLL SYSTEM CONFIGURATION

NC 103171 / 1-27-09 / Option 3-Alternative 2 Toll System. mxd Proposed Monroe Connector/Bypass Preliminary Traffic and Revenue Study - 2009 Update

485

MonroeAirport

601

74

74

75 Monroe Wingate

Matthews

84

200

200

21851

51

200

207

U.S. 74 Toll

MonroeConnector /

Bypass

Stallings R

d.

Junction Toll Concept SchematicNot to Scale

U.S. 74 Free Route

McKee Rd.

Bus.

U.S. 74 Free Route

74

74

U.S. 74 Toll

Union

Mecklenburg

LEGENDAlternative 2InterchangeInterchange With Ramp Toll ZoneMainline Toll Zone

0 0.75 1.5

Miles

Proposed Monroe Connector/Bypass Preliminary Traffic and Revenue Study - 2009 UpdateNC 103171 / 1-27-09 / Landscape.ppt

FIGURE 5

SchematicNot To Scale

MONROE CONNECTOR / BYPASS AND US 74 JUNCTIONALTERNATIVE 2 TOLL CONCEPT SCHEMATIC

Stallings Rd.McKee Rd.

Frontage Road

Frontage Road

Monroe

Con

necto

r / By

pass

MonroeCharlotte

Business

Monroe Connector / Bypass - TollUS 74 - TollUS 74 - Free AlternativeOther RoadsToll ZoneTraffic Signal

LEGEND




Video toll customers would include users with registered video accounts and non-registered us-ers of the toll road. Users that do not register for ETC or video toll accounts would be consid-ered potential customers and provided an opportunity to pay before their transactions are classi-fied as violations. The following rate differentials were assumed for video toll collection and ETC:

Video Toll Collection Rates – The toll rates established for Class 1, Class 2 and Class 3 video toll customers; and

Electronic Toll Collection Rates – The toll rates for Class 1, Class 2 and Class 3 toll customers discounted by no more than 35 percent from the corresponding video rates.

By having a cashless system, the NCTA can place the tolling zones between each interchange and have the rates on a per mile basis set equally. In certain cases, toll zones were located on ramps for operational reasons, but the same uniform toll rate per mile was adopted. TOLL RATES Figures 6 and 7 illustrate the assumed toll rates for the two alternatives for the three vehicle classes in 2014/2015 and 2030. Tables 1-1 and 1-2 contain ETC and video tolls for each tolling zone from the opening year through 2035. The maximum Class 1 ETC toll (five toll zones) would be $2.51, or $0.129 per mile in the opening year under Alternative 1 and $0.127 per mile for the slightly longer Alternative 2. The highest single zone Class 1 ETC toll would be $0.75 for movements between US 601 and North Rocky River Road. Minimum tolls of $0.30 would be set at the two ramp tolling zones and the US 74 tolling zones. Finally, toll rates would be in-creased annually based on growth rates between the 2015 and 2030 rates that were established by toll sensitivity tests. In contrast, the 2006 study assumed toll increases every five years. The an-nual toll increase procedure is made relatively easy since all tolls are paid electronically. Tables 2-1 and 2-2 compare the maximum Class 1 ETC and video toll rates established for the 2006 study and this 2009 update study. ETC rates are similar especially in the earlier years but are somewhat higher in later years following a new toll sensitivity analysis. Video rates are also shown for the current study and are higher than the ETC rates which are discounted from the video rates.


FIGURE 6

Indian

Trail

-Fairv

iew R

d.

Union

ville I

ndian

Trail

Rd.

Austi

n Cha

ney R

d.

COMPARISON OF ETC TOLL RATE ASSUMPTIONS - ALTERNATIVE 1

Stallin

gs R

d.

Fores

t Hills

Scho

ol Rd

.

North

Roc

ky R

iver R

d.

Conc

ord H

wy.

Morga

n Mill R

d.

LEGEND

Monroe Connector/Bypass

Mainline Toll Zone

Ramp Toll Zone

2014 / 2015$0.00$0.00$0.00

2030($0.00)($0.00)($0.00)

Class 1 -Class 2 -Class 3 -


$0.39 ($0.69)$0.78 ($1.37)$1.56 ($2.73)

$0.46 ($0.78)$0.91 ($1.56)$1.82 ($3.12)

$0.30 ($0.46)$0.59 ($0.91)$1.17 ($1.82)

$0.30 ($0.46)$0.59 ($0.91)$1.17 ($1.82)

$0.75 ($1.27)$1.50 ($2.54)$2.99 ($5.07)

$0.30 ($0.46)$0.59 ($0.91)$1.17 ($1.82)

$0.30 ($0.46)$0.59 ($0.91)$1.17 ($1.82)

$0.52 ($0.88)$1.04 ($1.76)$2.08 ($3.51)

$0.39 ($0.65)$0.78 ($1.30)$1.56 ($2.60)

Vehicle ClassClass 1Class 2Class 3

Toll$2.51$5.01$10.01

Toll Per Mile$0.129$0.257$0.514

2014 / 2015Toll

$4.27$8.53

$17.03

Toll Per Mile$0.219$0.438$0.875

2030Maximum Electronic Toll


FIGURE 7

Indian

Trail

-Fairv

iew R

d.

Union

ville I

ndian

Trail

Rd.

Austi

n Cha

ney R

d.

COMPARISON OF ETC TOLL RATE ASSUMPTIONS - ALTERNATIVE 2

Fores

t Hills

Scho

ol Rd

.

North

Roc

ky R

iver R

d.

Conc

ord H

wy.

Morga

n Mill R

d.

LEGEND


Mainline Toll Zone

Ramp Toll Zone

2014 / 2015$0.00$0.00$0.00

2030($0.00)($0.00)($0.00)

Class 1 -Class 2 -Class 3 -


$0.46 ($0.78)$0.91 ($1.56)$1.82 ($3.12)

$0.30 ($0.46)$0.59 ($0.91)$1.17 ($1.82)

$0.30 ($0.46)$0.59 ($0.91)$1.17 ($1.82)

$0.75 ($1.27)$1.50 ($2.54)$2.99 ($5.07)

$0.30 ($0.46)$0.59 ($0.91)$1.17 ($1.82)

$0.30 ($0.46)$0.59 ($0.91)$1.17 ($1.82)

$0.52 ($0.88)$1.04 ($1.76)$2.08 ($3.51)

$0.39 ($0.65)$0.78 ($1.30)$1.56 ($2.60)

$0.39 ($0.69)$0.78 ($1.37)$1.56 ($2.73)

Vehicle ClassClass 1Class 2Class 3

Toll$2.51$5.01

$10.01

Toll Per Mile *$0.127$0.253$0.505

2014 / 2015Toll

$4.27$8.53

$17.03

Toll Per Mile *$0.215$0.430$0.858

2030

Maximum Electronic Toll

* Includes upgraded segment on US 74 to I-485

Bus

$0.30 ($0.46)$0.59 ($0.91)$1.17 ($1.82)

McKe

e Rd.

Stallin

gs R

d.

$0.30 ($0.46)$0.59 ($0.91)$1.17 ($1.82)




Tabl

e 1-

1R

ecom

men

ded

Annu

al T

oll R

ates

by

Tolli

ng Z

one

Cla

ss 1

- ET

C a

nd V

ideo

Mon

roe

Con

nect

or/B

ypas

s Pr

elim

inar

y St

udy

Upd

ate,

Alte

rnat

ive

1

Mai

nlin

e 1

US

74 -

Aust

in

Cha

ney

Roa

d

Mai

nlin

e 2

Aust

in C

hane

yR

oad

- NC

200

Ram

p 1

NC

601

Mai

nlin

e 3

US

601

- Roc

ky R

iver

R

oad

Ram

p 2

Uni

onvi

lle -

Indi

an

Trai

l Roa

d

Mai

nlin

e 4

Uni

onvi

lle-In

dian

Tr

ail R

oad

- Ind

ian

Trai

l Fai

rvie

w R

oad

Mai

nlin

e 5

AIn

dian

Tra

il - F

airv

iew

R

oad

- Sta

lling

s R

oad

Year

ETC

Vide

oET

CVi

deo

ETC

Vide

oET

CVi

deo

ETC

Vide

oET

CVi

deo

ETC

Vide

o20

14$0

.39

$0.6

0$0

.52

$0.8

0$0

.30

$0.4

5$0

.75

$1.1

5$0

.30

$0.4

5$0

.46

$0.7

0$0

.39

$0.6

020

15$0

.39

$0.6

0$0

.52

$0.8

0$0

.30

$0.4

5$0

.75

$1.1

5$0

.30

$0.4

5$0

.46

$0.7

0$0

.39

$0.6

020

16$0

.41

$0.6

2$0

.54

$0.8

3$0

.31

$0.4

7$0

.78

$1.1

9$0

.31

$0.4

7$0

.48

$0.7

3$0

.41

$0.6

220

17$0

.42

$0.6

4$0

.56

$0.8

6$0

.32

$0.4

9$0

.80

$1.2

3$0

.32

$0.4

9$0

.50

$0.7

6$0

.42

$0.6

420

18$0

.43

$0.6

6$0

.58

$0.8

9$0

.34

$0.5

1$0

.83

$1.2

7$0

.34

$0.5

1$0

.52

$0.7

9$0

.43

$0.6

620

19$0

.45

$0.6

8$0

.60

$0.9

2$0

.35

$0.5

3$0

.86

$1.3

2$0

.35

$0.5

3$0

.54

$0.8

2$0

.45

$0.6

820

20$0

.47

$0.7

2$0

.63

$0.9

6$0

.36

$0.5

4$0

.90

$1.3

7$0

.36

$0.5

4$0

.55

$0.8

4$0

.47

$0.7

220

21$0

.49

$0.7

5$0

.65

$1.0

0$0

.37

$0.5

6$0

.93

$1.4

2$0

.37

$0.5

6$0

.57

$0.8

7$0

.49

$0.7

520

22$0

.51

$0.7

8$0

.68

$1.0

4$0

.38

$0.5

8$0

.96

$1.4

7$0

.38

$0.5

8$0

.59

$0.9

0$0

.51

$0.7

820

23$0

.53

$0.8

1$0

.71

$1.0

8$0

.39

$0.6

0$0

.99

$1.5

2$0

.39

$0.6

0$0

.61

$0.9

3$0

.53

$0.8

120

24$0

.55

$0.8

4$0

.73

$1.1

2$0

.41

$0.6

2$1

.03

$1.5

8$0

.41

$0.6

2$0

.63

$0.9

6$0

.55

$0.8

420

25$0

.56

$0.8

6$0

.75

$1.1

5$0

.42

$0.6

4$1

.07

$1.6

4$0

.42

$0.6

4$0

.65

$1.0

0$0

.56

$0.8

620

26$0

.58

$0.8

9$0

.78

$1.1

9$0

.43

$0.6

5$1

.11

$1.7

0$0

.43

$0.6

5$0

.68

$1.0

4$0

.59

$0.9

020

27$0

.60

$0.9

2$0

.80

$1.2

3$0

.43

$0.6

6$1

.15

$1.7

6$0

.43

$0.6

6$0

.71

$1.0

8$0

.62

$0.9

420

28$0

.62

$0.9

5$0

.83

$1.2

7$0

.44

$0.6

7$1

.19

$1.8

2$0

.44

$0.6

7$0

.73

$1.1

2$0

.64

$0.9

820

29$0

.64

$0.9

8$0

.86

$1.3

1$0

.45

$0.6

8$1

.23

$1.8

8$0

.45

$0.6

8$0

.76

$1.1

6$0

.67

$1.0

220

30$0

.65

$1.0

0$0

.88

$1.3

5$0

.46

$0.7

0$1

.27

$1.9

5$0

.46

$0.7

0$0

.78

$1.2

0$0

.69

$1.0

520

31$0

.68

$1.0

4$0

.91

$1.4

0$0

.48

$0.7

3$1

.32

$2.0

2$0

.48

$0.7

3$0

.81

$1.2

4$0

.71

$1.0

920

32$0

.71

$1.0

8$0

.95

$1.4

5$0

.50

$0.7

6$1

.36

$2.0

9$0

.50

$0.7

6$0

.84

$1.2

8$0

.74

$1.1

320

33$0

.73

$1.1

2$0

.98

$1.5

0$0

.52

$0.7

9$1

.42

$2.1

7$0

.52

$0.7

9$0

.87

$1.3

3$0

.77

$1.1

720

34$0

.76

$1.1

6$1

.01

$1.5

5$0

.54

$0.8

2$1

.47

$2.2

5$0

.54

$0.8

2$0

.90

$1.3

8$0

.79

$1.2

120

35$0

.78

$1.1

9$1

.05

$1.6

1$0

.55

$0.8

4$1

.52

$2.3

3$0

.55

$0.8

4$0

.93

$1.4

3$0

.82

$1.2

5

Not

e:C

lass

2 to

lls a

re tw

o tim

es th

e C

lass

1 v

ideo

tolls

.C

lass

3 to

lls a

re fo

ur ti

mes

the

Cla

ss 1

vid

eo to

lls.

Elec

troni

c ra

tes

are

65 p

er c

ent o

f vid

eo ra

tes.




Tabl

e 1-

2R

ecom

men

ded

Annu

al T

oll R

ates

by

Tolli

ng Z

one

Cla

ss 1

- ET

C a

nd V

ideo

Mon

roe

Con

nect

or/B

ypas

s Pr

elim

inar

y St

udy

Upd

ate,

Alte

rnat

ive

2

Mai

nlin

e 1

US

74 -

Aust

in

Cha

ney

Roa

d

Mai

nlin

e 2

Aust

in C

hane

yR

oad

- NC

200

Ram

p 1

NC

601

Mai

nlin

e 3

US

601

- Roc

ky R

iver

R

oad

Ram

p 2

Uni

onvi

lle -

Indi

an

Trai

l Roa

d

Mai

nlin

e 4

Uni

onvi

lle-In

dian

Tr

ail R

oad

- Ind

ian

Trai

l Fai

rvie

w R

oad

Mai

nlin

e 5

BIn

dian

Tra

il - F

airv

iew

R

oad

-U

S 74

Mai

nlin

e 6

US

74Ye

arET

CVi

deo

ETC

Vide

oET

CVi

deo

ETC

Vide

oET

CVi

deo

ETC

Vide

oET

CVi

deo

ETC

Vide

o20

14$0

.39

$0.6

0$0

.52

$0.8

0$0

.30

$0.4

5$0

.75

$1.1

5$0

.30

$0.4

5$0

.46

$0.7

0$0

.39

$0.6

0$0

.30

$0.4

520

15$0

.39

$0.6

0$0

.52

$0.8

0$0

.30

$0.4

5$0

.75

$1.1

5$0

.30

$0.4

5$0

.46

$0.7

0$0

.39

$0.6

0$0

.30

$0.4

520

16$0

.41

$0.6

2$0

.54

$0.8

3$0

.31

$0.4

7$0

.78

$1.1

9$0

.31

$0.4

7$0

.48

$0.7

3$0

.41

$0.6

2$0

.31

$0.4

720

17$0

.42

$0.6

4$0

.56

$0.8

6$0

.32

$0.4

9$0

.80

$1.2

3$0

.32

$0.4

9$0

.50

$0.7

6$0

.42

$0.6

4$0

.32

$0.4

920

18$0

.43

$0.6

6$0

.58

$0.8

9$0

.34

$0.5

1$0

.83

$1.2

7$0

.34

$0.5

1$0

.52

$0.7

9$0

.43

$0.6

6$0

.34

$0.5

120

19$0

.45

$0.6

8$0

.60

$0.9

2$0

.35

$0.5

3$0

.86

$1.3

2$0

.35

$0.5

3$0

.54

$0.8

2$0

.45

$0.6

8$0

.35

$0.5

320

20$0

.47

$0.7

2$0

.63

$0.9

6$0

.36

$0.5

4$0

.90

$1.3

7$0

.36

$0.5

4$0

.55

$0.8

4$0

.47

$0.7

2$0

.36

$0.5

420

21$0

.49

$0.7

5$0

.65

$1.0

0$0

.37

$0.5

6$0

.93

$1.4

2$0

.37

$0.5

6$0

.57

$0.8

7$0

.49

$0.7

5$0

.37

$0.5

620

22$0

.51

$0.7

8$0

.68

$1.0

4$0

.38

$0.5

8$0

.96

$1.4

7$0

.38

$0.5

8$0

.59

$0.9

0$0

.51

$0.7

8$0

.38

$0.5

820

23$0

.53

$0.8

1$0

.71

$1.0

8$0

.39

$0.6

0$0

.99

$1.5

2$0

.39

$0.6

0$0

.61

$0.9

3$0

.53

$0.8

1$0

.39

$0.6

020

24$0

.55

$0.8

4$0

.73

$1.1

2$0

.41

$0.6

2$1

.03

$1.5

8$0

.41

$0.6

2$0

.63

$0.9

6$0

.55

$0.8

4$0

.41

$0.6

220

25$0

.56

$0.8

6$0

.75

$1.1

5$0

.42

$0.6

4$1

.07

$1.6

4$0

.42

$0.6

4$0

.65

$1.0

0$0

.56

$0.8

6$0

.42

$0.6

420

26$0

.58

$0.8

9$0

.78

$1.1

9$0

.43

$0.6

5$1

.11

$1.7

0$0

.43

$0.6

5$0

.68

$1.0

4$0

.59

$0.9

0$0

.43

$0.6

520

27$0

.60

$0.9

2$0

.80

$1.2

3$0

.43

$0.6

6$1

.15

$1.7

6$0

.43

$0.6

6$0

.71

$1.0

8$0

.62

$0.9

4$0

.43

$0.6

620

28$0

.62

$0.9

5$0

.83

$1.2

7$0

.44

$0.6

7$1

.19

$1.8

2$0

.44

$0.6

7$0

.73

$1.1

2$0

.64

$0.9

8$0

.44

$0.6

720

29$0

.64

$0.9

8$0

.86

$1.3

1$0

.45

$0.6

8$1

.23

$1.8

8$0

.45

$0.6

8$0

.76

$1.1

6$0

.67

$1.0

2$0

.45

$0.6

820

30$0

.65

$1.0

0$0

.88

$1.3

5$0

.46

$0.7

0$1

.27

$1.9

5$0

.46

$0.7

0$0

.78

$1.2

0$0

.69

$1.0

5$0

.46

$0.7

020

31$0

.68

$1.0

4$0

.91

$1.4

0$0

.48

$0.7

3$1

.32

$2.0

2$0

.48

$0.7

3$0

.81

$1.2

4$0

.71

$1.0

9$0

.48

$0.7

320

32$0

.71

$1.0

8$0

.95

$1.4

5$0

.50

$0.7

6$1

.36

$2.0

9$0

.50

$0.7

6$0

.84

$1.2

8$0

.74

$1.1

3$0

.50

$0.7

620

33$0

.73

$1.1

2$0

.98

$1.5

0$0

.52

$0.7

9$1

.42

$2.1

7$0

.52

$0.7

9$0

.87

$1.3

3$0

.77

$1.1

7$0

.52

$0.7

920

34$0

.76

$1.1

6$1

.01

$1.5

5$0

.54

$0.8

2$1

.47

$2.2

5$0

.54

$0.8

2$0

.90

$1.3

8$0

.79

$1.2

1$0

.54

$0.8

220

35$0

.78

$1.1

9$1

.05

$1.6

1$0

.55

$0.8

4$1

.52

$2.3

3$0

.55

$0.8

4$0

.93

$1.4

3$0

.82

$1.2

5$0

.55

$0.8

4

Not

e:C

lass

2 to

lls a

re tw

o tim

es th

e C

lass

1 v

ideo

tolls

.C

lass

3 to

lls a

re fo

ur ti

mes

the

Cla

ss 1

vid

eo to

lls.

Elec

troni

c ra

tes

are

65 p

er c

ent o

f vid

eo ra

tes.




Table 2-1Maximum Class 1 Vehicle Toll Rates

Monroe Connector/Bypass Preliminary Study UpdateAlternative 1

2009 Update to Preliminary Study 2006 Preliminary StudyETC Video Cash/ETC

Year TollToll per

Mile TollToll per

Mile TollToll per

Mile

2015 $2.51 $0.129 $3.85 $0.198 $2.50 $0.1282020 $3.02 $0.155 $4.61 $0.237 $3.00 $0.1542025 $3.59 $0.184 $5.51 $0.283 $3.50 $0.1802030 $4.27 $0.219 $6.55 $0.336 $4.00 $0.205

Table 2-2Maximum Class 1 Vehicle Toll Rates

Monroe Connector/Bypass Preliminary Study UpdateAlternative 2

2009 Update to Preliminary Study 2006 Preliminary StudyETC Video Cash/ETC

Year TollToll per

Mile TollToll per

Mile TollToll per

Mile

2015 $2.51 $0.127 $3.85 $0.1942020 $3.02 $0.152 $4.61 $0.2322025 $3.59 $0.181 $5.51 $0.2782030 $4.27 $0.215 $6.55 $0.330

Not Analyzed

ESTIMATED WEEKDAY TRAFFIC VOLUMES

Estimates of weekday traffic volumes in 2015 and 2030 are shown in Figures 8 and 9 for Alter-natives 1 and 2 respectively. The highest volume would occur between Indian Trail-Fairview Road and Stalling Road for Alternative 1 where approximately 35,600 vehicles would use the facility in 2015. The expected volume west of Stallings Road would drop to approximately


FIGURE 8

Indian

Trail

-Fairv

iew R

d.

Union

ville I

ndian

Trail

Rd.

Austi

n Cha

ney R

d.

ESTIMATED 2015 AND 2030 WEEKDAY TRAFFIC VOLUMESALTERNATIVE 1

Stallin

gs R

d.

Fores

t Hills

Scho

ol Rd

.

North

Roc

ky R

iver R

d.

Conc

ord H

wy.

Morga

n Mill R

d.


LEGEND


Mainline Toll Zone

Ramp Toll Zone

0.00.0

20152030

Note: All traffic volumes shown represent thousands of vehicles.

14.423.9

14.423.9

2.44.4

2.44.4

3.75.9

3.75.9

1.12.6

1.12.6

2.63.0

2.63.0 0.6

1.9

0.61.9 2.4

5.4

2.45.4

0.51.5

0.51.5

3.66.0

3.66.0

1.12.4

1.12.4 3.4

5.5

3.45.5

0.50.7

0.50.7

1.33.3

1.33.3

0.60.7

0.60.7

0.20.6

0.20.6

5.07.8

5.07.8

10.015.6

10.416.8

11.822.0

17.631.6

22.640.0

26.447.8

30.450.0

35.656.6

28.847.8


FIGURE 9

Indian

Trail

-Fairv

iew R

d.

Union

ville I

ndian

Trail

Rd.

Austi

n Cha

ney R

d.

Fores

t Hills

Scho

ol Rd

.

North

Roc

ky R

iver R

d.

Conc

ord H

wy.

Morga

n Mill R

d.

LEGEND


Mainline Toll Zone

Ramp Toll Zone

0.00.0

20152030

Note: All traffic volumes shown represent thousands of vehicles.

ESTIMATED 2015 AND 2030 WEEKDAY TRAFFIC VOLUMESALTERNATIVE 2

2.55.0

2.55.0

1.54.3

1.54.3

2.52.7

2.52.7 0.5

1.8

0.51.8 1.9

5.1

1.95.1

0.50.9

0.50.9

22.639.6

25.448.0

29.449.8

3.56.3

3.56.3

1.12.4

1.12.4

3.35.6

3.35.6

0.40.7

0.40.7

1.33.3

1.33.3

0.60.8

0.60.8

0.20.7

0.20.7

5.17.8

5.17.8

10.215.6

10.617.0

12.022.0

17.831.8

Bus

McKe

e Rd.

Stallin

gs R

d.


McKe

e Rd.

Stallin

gs R

d. Bus

See Inset

Inset

31.443.6

19.116.5

19.214.7

28.421.5

31.443.6

0.51.39.7

8.1

19.116.5

28.421.5

88.097.8

49.864.8

9.78.1

19.214.7

0.51.3




29,000 vpd, which indicates that the Stallings Road interchange provides significant traffic to the toll road. Volumes east of US 601 in 2015 would be less than 18,000 vpd. By 2030 the maxi-mum volume would be nearly 57,000 vpd. Under Alternative 2, the maximum load point on the Monroe Connector/Bypass would be between Indian Trail-Fairview Road and US 74 with a vol-ume of 31,400 vpd. However, the tolled section of US 74 has a significantly higher volume at 49,800 vpd in 2015 because it includes not only the tolled traffic from the Monroe Connec-tor/Bypass but also the toll traffic from US 74. Tables 3-1 and 3-2 summarize the average trip length and number of transactions per trip by ve-hicle class and toll collection method for Alternatives 1 and 2 respectively. The average trip is expected to be approximately 9.3 miles long for Alternative 1 and 10.0 miles for the slightly longer Alternative 2. The average trip would use 2.6 toll zones for Alternative 1 and 2.7 toll zones for Alternative 2. Similar patterns with slightly different averages are expected by vehicle class and collection method.

ESTIMATED ANNUAL TOLL TRANSACTIONS AND REVENUE

Weekday traffic by vehicle class was calculated for each tolling zone and multiplied by the ETC or video toll rate to develop estimates of weekday revenue. The weekday revenue estimates were then annualized based on 319 equivalent weekdays per year which assumes lower weekend and holiday traffic. For annualization purposes, it was assumed that average weekend-day traffic would be 60 percent of average weekday traffic. The annualized transactions and revenues in the early years of operation were further adjusted to reflect “ramp-up.” Ramp-up is the phenomenon experienced on most start-up toll facilities in which high levels of growth may be experienced over the first three years or so of operation as the motoring public gradually becomes aware of and begins using the new facility. ANNUAL TRANSACTIONS Estimated annual toll transactions by vehicle class and year are shown in Table 4-1 and 4-2 for the two alternatives. Figure 10 depicts the transactions stream graphically. For Alternative 1, annual transactions are expected to increase from about 4.4 million in the second half of FY 2014 to 61.2 million by FY 2030. Traffic estimates for FY 2014 through 2017 were adjusted downward to reflect the impact of successive ramp-up periods. In contrast, the opening six-month transactions for Alternative 2 are 5.1 million and rising to 64.8 million for FY 2030. The main reason for the higher toll traffic in Alternative 2 is the inclusion of a tolling zone on US 74.




Tabl

e 3-

1Av

erag

e D

aily

Tra

nsac

tions

and

Trip

Len

gth

Mon

roe

Con

nect

or/B

ypas

s Pr

elim

inar

y St

udy

Upd

ate,

Alte

rnat

ive

1

Cla

ss 1

Veh

icle

s - E

TCC

lass

1 V

ehic

les

- Vid

eoC

lass

1 V

ehic

les

- Tot

al

Year

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

2015

9.34

2.64

9.12

2.60

9.28

2.63

2020

9.51

2.68

9.27

2.64

9.46

2.67

2025

9.43

2.62

9.22

2.59

9.41

2.62

2030

8.98

2.52

8.77

2.48

8.96

2.51

Cla

ss 1

and

3 V

ehic

les

- ETC

Cla

ss 2

and

3 V

ehic

les

- Vid

eoC

lass

2 a

nd 3

Veh

icle

s - T

otal

Year

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

2015

9.52

2.66

9.20

2.61

9.54

2.60

2020

9.65

2.69

9.25

2.62

9.61

2.77

2025

9.50

2.63

9.13

2.57

9.46

2.61

2030

8.89

2.50

8.52

2.43

8.85

2.51

Tota

l ETC

Tota

l Vid

eoTo

tal V

ehic

les

Year

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

2015

9.35

2.64

9.12

2.61

9.29

2.63

2020

9.51

2.68

9.27

2.63

9.47

2.67

2025

9.44

2.62

9.22

2.59

9.41

2.62

2030

8.98

2.52

8.76

2.49

8.95

2.51




Tabl

e 3-

2Av

erag

e D

aily

Tra

nsac

tions

and

Trip

Len

gth

Mon

roe

Con

nect

or/B

ypas

s Pr

elim

inar

y St

udy

Upd

ate,

Alte

rnat

ive

2

Cla

ss 1

Veh

icle

s - E

TCC

lass

1 V

ehic

les

- Vid

eoC

lass

1 V

ehic

les

- Tot

al

Year

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

2015

9.99

2.67

9.80

2.63

9.94

2.66

2020

9.86

2.61

9.65

2.57

9.82

2.61

2025

9.86

2.61

9.67

2.57

9.84

2.60

2030

9.45

2.53

9.26

2.50

9.43

2.52

Cla

ss 2

and

3 V

ehic

les

- ETC

Cla

ss 2

and

3 V

ehic

les

- Vid

eoC

lass

2 a

nd 3

Veh

icle

s - T

otal

Year

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

2015

10.0

32.

669.

722.

6110

.05

2.74

2020

9.92

2.62

9.55

2.55

9.96

2.68

2025

9.84

2.60

9.59

2.55

9.92

2.60

2030

9.28

2.50

8.90

2.43

9.13

2.48

Tota

l ETC

Tota

l Vid

eoTo

tal V

ehic

les

Year

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

Aver

age

Trip

Le

ngth

(M

iles)

Aver

age

Tran

sact

ions

pe

r Trip

2015

9.99

2.67

9.80

2.63

10.0

02.

6620

209.

862.

619.

642.

579.

822.

6120

259.

862.

619.

682.

589.

842.

6020

309.

452.

539.

262.

509.

432.

52




Tabl

e 4-

1An

nual

Tol

l Tra

nsac

tions

(Fis

cal Y

ear)

Mon

roe

Con

nect

or/B

ypas

s Pr

elim

inar

y St

udy

Upd

ate,

Alte

rnat

ive

1(T

hous

ands

)

Cla

ss 1

Cla

ss 2

Cla

ss 3

Fisc

al

Year

ETC

Vide

oTo

tal C

lass

1ET

CVi

deo

Tota

l Cla

ss 2

ETC

Vide

oTo

tal C

lass

3To

tal

Tran

sact

ions

Perc

ent

ETC

2014

(1)

3,12

41,

181

4,30

544

448

737

804,

433

73.1

%20

1518

,997

6,52

325

,520

258

2428

243

340

473

26,2

7574

.9%

2016

25,0

357,

815

32,8

5032

928

357

553

4760

033

,807

76.7

%20

1730

,032

8,52

138

,553

382

3041

264

350

693

39,6

5878

.3%

2018

31,5

458,

529

40,0

7439

530

425

664

5071

441

,213

79.1

%20

1933

,898

8,33

142

,229

411

2843

969

148

739

43,4

0780

.6%

2020

36,4

268,

138

44,5

6442

827

455

719

4676

545

,784

82.1

%20

2138

,624

7,95

546

,579

441

2746

874

146

787

47,8

3483

.2%

2022

40,4

417,

783

48,2

2445

028

478

756

4780

349

,505

84.1

%20

2342

,344

7,61

449

,958

459

2948

877

248

820

51,2

6685

.0%

2024

44,3

387,

449

51,7

8746

829

497

787

4983

653

,120

85.8

%20

2546

,427

7,28

853

,715

478

3050

880

451

855

55,0

7886

.6%

2026

48,1

137,

110

55,2

2348

531

516

816

5186

756

,606

87.3

%20

2749

,370

6,91

956

,289

490

3152

182

451

875

57,6

8587

.9%

2028

50,6

736,

734

57,4

0749

531

526

833

5188

458

,817

88.4

%20

2952

,023

6,55

758

,580

501

3153

284

251

893

60,0

0588

.9%

2030

53,4

246,

386

59,8

1050

631

537

851

5290

361

,250

89.4

%20

3154

,679

6,36

561

,044

514

3154

586

452

916

62,5

0589

.7%

2032

55,7

726,

493

62,2

6552

432

556

881

5393

463

,755

89.7

%20

3356

,888

6,62

363

,511

535

3256

789

954

953

65,0

3189

.7%

2034

58,0

256,

755

64,7

8054

533

578

917

5597

266

,330

89.7

%20

3559

,186

6,89

066

,076

556

3459

093

556

991

67,6

5789

.7%

2036

60,3

707,

028

67,3

9856

734

601

954

581,

012

69,0

1189

.7%

2037

61,5

777,

169

68,7

4657

935

614

973

591,

032

70,3

9289

.7%

2038

62,8

097,

312

70,1

2159

036

626

992

601,

052

71,7

9989

.7%

2039

64,0

657,

458

71,5

2360

236

638

1,01

261

1,07

373

,234

89.7

%20

4065

,346

7,60

772

,953

614

3765

11,

032

621,

094

74,6

9889

.7%

2041

66,4

887,

740

74,2

2862

538

663

1,05

063

1,11

376

,004

89.7

%20

4267

,485

7,85

675

,341

634

3867

21,

066

641,

130

77,1

4389

.7%

2043

68,4

987,

974

76,4

7264

439

683

1,08

265

1,14

778

,302

89.7

%20

4469

,525

8,09

477

,619

653

3969

21,

098

661,

164

79,4

7589

.7%

2045

70,5

688,

215

78,7

8366

340

703

1,11

567

1,18

280

,668

89.7

%20

4671

,626

8,33

879

,964

673

4171

41,

132

681,

200

81,8

7889

.7%

2047

72,7

018,

464

81,1

6568

341

724

1,14

969

1,21

883

,107

89.7

%20

4873

,791

8,59

082

,381

694

4273

61,

166

701,

236

84,3

5389

.7%

2049

74,8

988,

719

83,6

1770

442

746

1,18

371

1,25

485

,617

89.7

%20

5076

,022

8,85

084

,872

714

4375

71,

201

721,

273

86,9

0289

.7%

2051

77,1

628,

983

86,1

4572

544

769

1,21

974

1,29

388

,207

89.7

%20

5278

,319

9,11

887

,437

736

4478

01,

237

751,

312

89,5

2989

.7%

2053

79,4

949,

254

88,7

4874

745

792

1,25

676

1,33

290

,872

89.7

%20

5480

,687

9,39

390

,080

758

4680

41,

275

771,

352

92,2

3689

.7%

(1) F

Y 20

14, J

anua

ry -

June

onl

y.

Not

e: F

orec

asts

for F

Y 20

14 -

2017

refle

ct a

n as

sum

ed ra

mp-

up to

full

traffi

c vo

lum

es b

egin

ning

in th

e se

cond

hal

f of F

Y 20

17.




Tabl

e 4-

2An

nual

Tol

l Tra

nsac

tions

(Fis

cal Y

ear)

Mon

roe

Con

nect

or/B

ypas

s Pr

elim

inar

y St

udy

Upd

ate,

Alte

rnat

ive

2(T

hous

ands

)

Cla

ss 1

Cla

ss 2

Cla

ss 3

Fisc

al

Year

ETC

Vide

oTo

tal C

lass

1ET

CVi

deo

Tota

l Cla

ss 2

ETC

Vide

oTo

tal C

lass

3To

tal

Tran

sact

ions

Perc

ent

ETC

2014

(1)

3,56

11,

392

4,95

349

554

829

915,

098

72.4

%20

1521

,260

7,49

628

,756

283

2731

047

645

521

29,5

8774

.4%

2016

27,8

038,

886

36,6

8935

831

389

603

5365

637

,734

76.2

%20

1733

,113

9,59

442

,707

413

3344

669

456

750

43,9

0377

.9%

2018

34,6

629,

560

44,2

2242

533

458

714

5576

945

,449

78.8

%20

1937

,006

9,25

746

,263

439

3147

073

852

790

47,5

2380

.3%

2020

39,5

288,

969

48,4

9745

330

483

762

5081

249

,792

81.8

%20

2141

,923

8,76

350

,686

468

3049

878

750

837

52,0

2183

.0%

2022

44,1

618,

632

52,7

9348

331

514

812

5286

454

,171

83.9

%20

2346

,520

8,50

355

,023

498

3253

083

854

892

56,4

4584

.8%

2024

49,0

098,

377

57,3

8651

434

548

864

5792

158

,855

85.6

%20

2551

,634

8,25

459

,888

531

3556

689

259

951

61,4

0586

.4%

2026

53,3

398,

024

61,3

6353

836

574

904

6096

462

,901

87.1

%20

2754

,071

7,69

761

,768

537

3557

290

259

961

63,3

0187

.7%

2028

54,8

427,

386

62,2

2853

534

569

900

5795

763

,754

88.3

%20

2955

,653

7,09

362

,746

534

3456

889

856

954

64,2

6888

.8%

2030

56,5

066,

815

63,3

2153

333

566

897

5595

264

,839

89.4

%20

3157

,513

6,74

764

,260

538

3357

190

555

960

65,7

9189

.6%

2032

58,6

636,

882

65,5

4554

934

583

923

5798

067

,108

89.6

%20

3359

,836

7,01

966

,855

560

3459

494

258

1,00

068

,449

89.6

%20

3461

,033

7,16

068

,193

571

3560

696

059

1,01

969

,818

89.6

%20

3562

,254

7,30

369

,557

583

3661

998

060

1,04

071

,216

89.6

%20

3663

,499

7,44

970

,948

594

3663

099

961

1,06

072

,638

89.6

%20

3764

,769

7,59

872

,367

606

3764

31,

019

621,

081

74,0

9189

.6%

2038

66,0

647,

750

73,8

1461

838

656

1,04

064

1,10

475

,574

89.6

%20

3967

,385

7,90

575

,290

631

3967

01,

060

651,

125

77,0

8589

.6%

2040

68,7

338,

063

76,7

9664

339

682

1,08

266

1,14

878

,626

89.6

%20

4169

,934

8,20

478

,138

655

4069

51,

101

671,

168

80,0

0189

.6%

2042

70,9

838,

327

79,3

1066

541

706

1,11

768

1,18

581

,201

89.6

%20

4372

,048

8,45

280

,500

675

4171

61,

134

691,

203

82,4

1989

.6%

2044

73,1

298,

578

81,7

0768

542

727

1,15

170

1,22

183

,655

89.6

%20

4574

,226

8,70

782

,933

695

4373

81,

168

721,

240

84,9

1189

.6%

2046

75,3

398,

838

84,1

7770

543

748

1,18

673

1,25

986

,184

89.6

%20

4776

,469

8,97

085

,439

716

4476

01,

203

741,

277

87,4

7689

.6%

2048

77,6

169,

105

86,7

2172

744

771

1,22

175

1,29

688

,788

89.6

%20

4978

,780

9,24

188

,021

738

4578

31,

240

761,

316

90,1

2089

.6%

2050

79,9

629,

380

89,3

4274

946

795

1,25

877

1,33

591

,472

89.6

%20

5181

,161

9,52

190

,682

760

4780

71,

277

781,

355

92,8

4489

.6%

2052

82,3

799,

664

92,0

4377

147

818

1,29

679

1,37

594

,236

89.6

%20

5383

,615

9,80

993

,424

783

4883

11,

316

811,

397

95,6

5289

.6%

2054

84,8

699,

956

94,8

2579

549

844

1,33

682

1,41

897

,087

89.6

%

(1) F

Y 20

14, J

anua

ry -

June

onl

y.

Not

e: F

orec

asts

for F

Y 20

14 -

2017

refle

ct a

n as

sum

ed ra

mp-

up to

full

traffi

c vo

lum

es b

egin

ning

in th

e se

cond

hal

f of F

Y 20

17.

Proposed Monroe Connector/BypassPreliminary Traffic and Revenue Study - 2009 UpdateNC 130171 / 1-27-09 / Portrait.ppt

ANNUAL TRANSACTION FORECASTFIGURE 10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060Fiscal Year

Total

Tran

sacti

ons (

Millio

ns)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060Fiscal Year

Toll R

even

ue (M

illion

s)

ANNUAL REVENUE FORECASTFIGURE 11

Alternative 1Alternative 2

LEGEND

Alternative 1 - GrossAlternative 1 – Net of Leakage

LEGEND

Alternative 2 - GrossAlternative 2 – Net of Leakage




Electronic toll transactions are expected to be the largest proportion of users and are estimated to increase from 72 to 74 percent in the early period to nearly 90 percent by about FY 2031. Note that transaction estimates through 2030 are based on a detailed modeling analysis. Transactions between 2030 and 2055 were assumed to grow at the same rates assumed for the 2006 study. ANNUAL GROSS REVENUE Annual gross revenue estimates for the two alternatives are provided in Tables 5-1 and 5-2 illus-trated in Figure 11. Revenue estimates are presented for each vehicles class by toll rate. For Al-ternative 1, the total annual gross revenue is expected to increase from about $2.6 million in the last half of FY 2015 and rising to $56.4 million by FY 2030. Revenues are higher for Alterna-tive 2 because of the tolling of US 74, as discussed earlier. For Alternative 2, the opening year gross revenue is estimated at $2.8 million, and the FY 2030 revenue is estimated at $57.7 mil-lion. These forecasts reflect the impact of both traffic growth and annual toll adjustments. Reve-nue estimates during FY 2014 through FY 2017 were adjusted to reflect a progressive ramp-up pattern. Electronic tolls are expected to account for between 65 and 86 percent of total revenue for the two alternatives. These are lower percentages than the proportion of transactions, but reflect the fact that video users are assessed a significant premium toll charge. COMPARISON TO 2006 PRELIMINARY STUDY Table 6 compares the current gross toll revenue forecasts with the forecasts contained in the 2006 preliminary study. The comparison is on a calendar year basis since the 2006 study was conducted on a calendar basis. The differences are attributable to the changes in the toll collec-tion system and the higher rates for video customers. The ETC rates on a per mile basis are nearly the same as in the 2006 study, but these rates represent a 35 percent discount from video rates, which were not included in 2006. If the revenue stream is discounted by a standard rate and then totaled for a net present value in 2014 dollars, then the Alternative 1 gross revenue is higher than the preliminary study gross revenue for both alternatives. For Alternative 2, the pre-sent value of the revenue stream is estimated to be somewhat higher than for Alternative 1. REVENUE COLLECTION AND LEAKAGE The NCTA is planning to minimize revenue losses due to leakage by developing a system that is an adaptation of two toll collection systems: Open Road Tolling (ORT) using ETC supple-mented by automated video imaging that will serve both as the primary collection system and as the violation enforcement system. The system assumed for the Monroe Connector/Bypass is the same as the system being planned for the Triangle Expressway. The same capture rate and col-lection assumptions were carried to the current project. Tables 7-1 and 7-2 contain the transac-tion estimates for each alternative so that estimates of revenue net of leakage can be developed.




Tabl

e 5-

1An

nual

Gro

ss T

oll R

even

ue (F

isca

l Yea

r)M

onro

e C

onne

ctor

/Byp

ass

Prel

imin

ary

Stud

y U

pdat

e, A

ltern

ativ

e 1

(Tho

usan

ds)

Cla

ss 1

Cla

ss 2

Cla

ss 3

Fisc

al

Year

ETC

Vide

oTo

tal C

lass

1ET

CVi

deo

Tota

l Cla

ss 2

ETC

Vide

oTo

tal C

lass

3To

tal G

ross

R

even

ue (2

)Pe

rcen

tET

C

2014

(1)

$1,5

29$8

78$2

,407

$43

$7$5

0$1

45$2

2$1

67$2

,624

65.4

%20

159,

336

4,87

214

,208

256

3629

285

912

097

915

,479

67.5

%20

1612

,858

6,05

718

,915

339

4438

31,

140

147

1,28

720

,585

69.6

%20

1715

,910

6,84

522

,755

409

4845

71,

371

163

1,53

424

,746

71.5

%20

1817

,015

6,97

023

,985

430

4947

91,

442

164

1,60

626

,070

72.4

%20

1918

,977

7,05

126

,028

463

4951

21,

555

163

1,71

828

,258

74.3

%20

2021

,212

7,15

928

,371

501

4854

91,

682

163

1,84

530

,765

76.0

%20

2123

,348

7,28

330

,631

537

5058

71,

801

168

1,96

933

,187

77.4

%20

2225

,357

7,39

832

,755

568

5362

11,

905

179

2,08

435

,460

78.5

%20

2327

,526

7,50

635

,032

600

5765

72,

014

190

2,20

437

,893

79.5

%20

2429

,872

7,61

237

,484

635

6069

52,

129

202

2,33

140

,510

80.6

%20

2532

,310

7,71

040

,020

670

6473

42,

248

215

2,46

343

,217

81.5

%20

2634

,697

7,79

442

,491

703

6777

02,

361

225

2,58

645

,847

82.4

%20

2737

,063

7,87

144

,934

736

7080

62,

472

234

2,70

648

,446

83.1

%20

2839

,387

7,94

047

,327

770

7284

22,

585

242

2,82

750

,996

83.8

%20

2941

,851

7,99

949

,850

804

7587

92,

699

251

2,95

053

,679

84.5

%20

3044

,363

8,04

652

,409

838

7791

52,

812

259

3,07

156

,395

85.1

%20

3146

,572

8,24

654

,818

874

8095

42,

931

269

3,20

058

,972

85.4

%20

3248

,668

8,61

757

,285

913

8499

73,

063

281

3,34

461

,626

85.4

%20

3350

,858

9,00

559

,863

954

871,

041

3,20

129

33,

494

64,3

9885

.4%

2034

53,1

479,

410

62,5

5799

791

1,08

83,

345

307

3,65

267

,297

85.4

%20

3555

,538

9,83

465

,372

1,04

295

1,13

73,

496

321

3,81

770

,326

85.4

%20

3658

,037

10,2

7668

,313

1,08

910

01,

189

3,65

333

53,

988

73,4

9085

.4%

2037

60,6

4910

,739

71,3

881,

138

104

1,24

23,

818

350

4,16

876

,798

85.4

%20

3863

,378

11,2

2274

,600

1,18

910

91,

298

3,98

936

64,

355

80,2

5385

.4%

2039

66,2

3011

,727

77,9

571,

242

114

1,35

64,

169

382

4,55

183

,864

85.4

%20

4069

,211

12,2

5481

,465

1,29

811

91,

417

4,35

639

94,

755

87,6

3785

.4%

2041

72,1

4812

,775

84,9

231,

353

124

1,47

74,

541

416

4,95

791

,357

85.4

%20

4275

,034

13,2

8688

,320

1,40

712

91,

536

4,72

343

35,

156

95,0

1285

.4%

2043

78,0

3613

,817

91,8

531,

464

134

1,59

84,

912

450

5,36

298

,813

85.4

%20

4481

,157

14,3

7095

,527

1,52

213

91,

661

5,10

846

85,

576

102,

764

85.4

%20

4584

,403

14,9

4499

,347

1,58

314

51,

728

5,31

348

75,

800

106,

875

85.4

%20

4687

,779

15,5

4210

3,32

11,

646

151

1,79

75,

525

507

6,03

211

1,15

085

.4%

2047

91,2

9116

,164

107,

455

1,71

215

71,

869

5,74

652

76,

273

115,

597

85.4

%20

4894

,942

16,8

1011

1,75

21,

781

163

1,94

45,

976

548

6,52

412

0,22

085

.4%

2049

98,7

4017

,483

116,

223

1,85

216

92,

021

6,21

557

06,

785

125,

029

85.4

%20

5010

2,68

918

,182

120,

871

1,92

617

62,

102

6,46

459

37,

057

130,

030

85.4

%20

5110

6,79

718

,909

125,

706

2,00

318

32,

186

6,72

261

67,

338

135,

230

85.4

%20

5211

1,06

919

,666

130,

735

2,08

319

12,

274

6,99

164

17,

632

140,

641

85.4

%20

5311

5,51

220

,452

135,

964

2,16

719

82,

365

7,27

166

77,

938

146,

267

85.4

%20

5412

0,13

221

,271

141,

403

2,25

320

62,

459

7,56

269

38,

255

152,

117

85.4

%

(1) F

Y 20

14, J

anua

ry -

June

onl

y.(2

) EXC

LUD

ES A

NY

ALLO

WAN

CE

FOR

UN

CO

LLEC

TIB

LE R

EVEN

UE.

Not

e: F

orec

asts

for F

Y 20

14 -

2017

refle

ct a

n as

sum

ed ra

mp-

up to

full

traffi

c vo

lum

es b

egin

ning

in th

e se

cond

hal

f of F

Y 20

17.




Tabl

e 5-

2An

nual

Gro

ss T

oll R

even

ue (F

isca

l Yea

r)M

onro

e C

onne

ctor

/Byp

ass

Prel

imin

ary

Stud

y U

pdat

e, A

ltern

ativ

e 2

(Tho

usan

ds)

Cla

ss 1

Cla

ss 2

Cla

ss 3

Fisc

al

Year

ETC

Vide

oTo

tal C

lass

1ET

CVi

deo

Tota

l Cla

ss 2

ETC

Vide

oTo

tal C

lass

3To

tal G

ross

R

even

ue (2

)Pe

rcen

tET

C

2014

(1)

1,64

296

22,

604

467

5315

324

177

2,83

465

.0%

2015

9,93

85,

265

15,2

0326

838

306

898

128

1,02

616

,535

67.2

%20

1613

,601

6,50

420

,105

353

4639

91,

185

156

1,34

121

,845

69.3

%20

1716

,753

7,30

624

,059

422

5147

31,

416

171

1,58

726

,119

71.2

%20

1817

,895

7,42

025

,315

442

5149

31,

485

172

1,65

727

,465

72.2

%20

1919

,884

7,46

627

,350

474

5152

51,

591

170

1,76

129

,636

74.1

%20

2022

,116

7,53

329

,649

509

5055

91,

709

169

1,87

832

,086

75.8

%20

2124

,369

7,66

632

,035

547

5259

91,

834

175

2,00

934

,643

77.2

%20

2226

,635

7,84

934

,484

585

5664

11,

961

189

2,15

037

,275

78.3

%20

2329

,099

8,02

537

,124

625

6168

62,

096

205

2,30

140

,111

79.3

%20

2431

,811

8,20

440

,015

668

6673

42,

241

221

2,46

243

,211

80.3

%20

2534

,667

8,37

743

,044

713

7178

42,

392

239

2,63

146

,459

81.3

%20

2637

,131

8,44

345

,574

747

7482

12,

508

250

2,75

849

,153

82.2

%20

2739

,188

8,40

847

,596

772

7584

72,

593

254

2,84

751

,290

83.0

%20

2841

,175

8,36

749

,542

798

7787

52,

678

257

2,93

553

,352

83.7

%20

2943

,293

8,31

851

,611

823

7890

12,

763

261

3,02

455

,536

84.4

%20

3045

,427

8,26

353

,690

848

7992

72,

845

264

3,10

957

,726

85.1

%20

3147

,460

8,41

955

,879

879

8196

02,

951

272

3,22

360

,062

85.4

%20

3249

,596

8,79

858

,394

919

841,

003

3,08

428

43,

368

62,7

6585

.4%

2033

51,8

289,

194

61,0

2296

088

1,04

83,

222

297

3,51

965

,589

85.4

%20

3454

,160

9,60

863

,768

1,00

392

1,09

53,

367

310

3,67

768

,540

85.4

%20

3556

,597

10,0

4066

,637

1,04

896

1,14

43,

519

324

3,84

371

,624

85.4

%20

3659

,144

10,4

9269

,636

1,09

610

11,

197

3,67

733

84,

015

74,8

4885

.4%

2037

61,8

0610

,964

72,7

701,

145

105

1,25

03,

843

354

4,19

778

,217

85.4

%20

3864

,587

11,4

5776

,044

1,19

611

01,

306

4,01

637

04,

386

81,7

3685

.4%

2039

67,4

9411

,973

79,4

671,

250

115

1,36

54,

196

386

4,58

285

,414

85.4

%20

4070

,531

12,5

1283

,043

1,30

712

01,

427

4,38

540

44,

789

89,2

5985

.4%

2041

73,5

2413

,043

86,5

671,

362

125

1,48

74,

571

421

4,99

293

,046

85.4

%20

4276

,465

13,5

6490

,029

1,41

613

01,

546

4,75

443

85,

192

96,7

6785

.4%

2043

79,5

2414

,107

93,6

311,

473

135

1,60

84,

944

455

5,39

910

0,63

885

.4%

2044

82,7

0514

,671

97,3

761,

532

141

1,67

35,

142

473

5,61

510

4,66

485

.4%

2045

86,0

1315

,258

101,

271

1,59

314

61,

739

5,34

849

25,

840

108,

850

85.4

%20

4689

,454

15,8

6810

5,32

21,

657

152

1,80

95,

562

512

6,07

411

3,20

585

.4%

2047

93,0

3216

,503

109,

535

1,72

315

81,

881

5,78

453

26,

316

117,

732

85.4

%20

4896

,753

17,1

6311

3,91

61,

792

165

1,95

76,

016

554

6,57

012

2,44

385

.4%

2049

100,

623

17,8

5011

8,47

31,

864

171

2,03

56,

256

576

6,83

212

7,34

085

.4%

2050

104,

648

18,5

6412

3,21

21,

939

178

2,11

76,

506

599

7,10

513

2,43

485

.4%

2051

108,

834

19,3

0612

8,14

02,

016

185

2,20

16,

767

623

7,39

013

7,73

185

.4%

2052

113,

187

20,0

7913

3,26

62,

097

193

2,29

07,

037

648

7,68

514

3,24

185

.4%

2053

117,

715

20,8

8213

8,59

72,

181

200

2,38

17,

319

674

7,99

314

8,97

185

.4%

2054

122,

424

21,7

1714

4,14

12,

268

208

2,47

67,

612

700

8,31

215

4,92

985

.4%

(1) F

Y 20

14, J

anua

ry -

June

onl

y.(2

) EX

CLU

DES

AN

Y AL

LOW

AN

CE

FO

R U

NC

OLL

ECTI

BLE

RE

VEN

UE

.N

ote:

For

ecas

ts fo

r FY

2014

- 20

17 re

flect

an

assu

med

ram

p-up

to fu

ll tra

ffic

volu

mes

beg

inni

ng in

the

seco

nd h

alf o

f FY

2017

.




Table 6Comparison of Gross Revenue Forecasts2006 Preliminary Study and 2009 Update

Monroe Connector/Bypass Preliminary Study UpdateCalendar Year Basis

(Thousands)

2009 Update Study

Calendar Year Alternative 1 Alternative 2

2006Preliminary Study

2014 $11,643 $12,572 $14,3312015 17,455 18,645 18,6802016 21,990 23,336 21,9382017 25,059 26,451 24,2562018 27,081 28,482 25,8062019 29,435 30,791 27,4582020 32,094 33,381 32,4062021 34,280 35,904 34,4752022 36,640 38,645 36,6862023 39,144 41,576 39,0482024 41,878 44,845 41,5732025 44,553 48,071 46,1922026 47,140 50,237 47,1732027 49,750 52,344 48,2172028 52,242 54,359 49,3292029 55,114 56,711 50,5152030 57,674 58,740 56,7712031 60,270 61,384 59,3262032 62,982 64,146 61,9962033 65,816 67,032 64,7852034 68,778 70,049 67,7012035 71,873 73,201 70,7472036 75,107 76,495 73,9312037 78,487 79,937 77,2582038 82,018 83,535 80,7342039 85,709 87,294 84,3672040 89,566 91,222 88,1642041 93,149 94,871 91,6912042 96,875 98,666 95,3582043 100,750 102,612 99,1722044 104,780 106,717 103,1392045 108,971 110,985 107,2652046 113,330 115,425 111,5562047 117,863 120,042 116,0182048 122,578 124,843 120,6592049 127,481 129,837 125,4852050 132,580 135,031 130,504

Net PresentValue at 2.50%

$1,401,720 $1,443,814 $1,382,092




Tabl

e 7-

1An

nual

Tol

l Tra

nsac

tions

by

Col

lect

ion

Met

hod

(Fis

cal Y

ear)

Mon

roe

Con

nect

or/B

ypas

s Pr

elim

inar

y St

udy

Upd

ate,

Alte

rnat

ive

1(T

hous

ands

)

Vide

oET

CC

olle

cted

Unc

olle

cted

Fisc

al

Year

Col

lect

edU

ncol

lect

ible

Tota

l ETC

Prer

egis

tere

dW

ithin

15

Day

sAf

ter 3

0 D

ays

Tota

l Vid

eo

Col

lect

edU

nrea

dabl

e Pl

ate

Unb

illab

le

Afte

r 15

Day

sPe

ndin

g Af

ter

30 D

ays

Tota

l Vid

eo

Unc

olle

cted

an

d Pe

ndin

gTo

tal V

ideo

Tota

l Tr

ansa

ctio

ns

2014

(1)

3,22

417

3,24

129

620

030

780

395

8920

538

91,

192

4,43

320

1519

,589

9919

,688

1,63

61,

106

1,69

24,

434

527

502

1,12

42,

153

6,58

726

,275

2016

25,7

8713

025

,917

1,75

01,

148

2,44

15,

339

536

523

1,49

22,

551

7,89

033

,807

2017

30,9

0015

731

,057

1,87

21,

192

2,78

65,

850

545

544

1,66

22,

751

8,60

139

,658

2018

32,4

4216

232

,604

2,00

31,

238

2,62

95,

870

555

565

1,61

92,

739

8,60

941

,213

2019

34,8

2517

535

,000

2,14

31,

285

2,33

55,

763

565

585

1,49

42,

644

8,40

743

,407

2020

37,3

8618

737

,573

2,29

21,

335

2,03

15,

658

575

606

1,37

22,

553

8,21

145

,784

2021

39,6

0719

939

,806

2,31

81,

290

1,95

75,

565

546

586

1,33

12,

463

8,02

847

,834

2022

41,4

3920

841

,647

2,34

41,

246

1,89

55,

485

518

566

1,28

92,

373

7,85

849

,505

2023

43,3

5721

843

,575

2,37

01,

204

1,83

25,

406

491

547

1,24

72,

285

7,69

151

,266

2024

45,3

6622

745

,593

2,39

71,

163

1,76

95,

329

466

529

1,20

32,

198

7,52

753

,120

2025

47,4

7123

847

,709

2,42

51,

126

1,70

25,

253

442

512

1,16

22,

116

7,36

955

,078

2026

49,1

6824

649

,414

2,43

21,

082

1,65

05,

164

415

491

1,12

22,

028

7,19

256

,606

2027

50,4

3225

250

,684

2,43

91,

040

1,58

15,

060

390

472

1,07

91,

941

7,00

157

,685

2028

51,7

4126

052

,001

2,44

699

91,

515

4,96

036

745

41,

035

1,85

66,

816

58,8

1720

2953

,098

268

53,3

662,

453

960

1,45

24,

865

345

436

993

1,77

46,

639

60,0

0520

3054

,506

275

54,7

812,

459

921

1,39

44,

774

324

420

951

1,69

56,

469

61,2

5020

3155

,775

282

56,0

572,

508

939

1,32

84,

776

330

427

914

1,67

26,

448

62,5

0520

3256

,892

285

57,1

772,

558

958

1,35

34,

870

345

436

927

1,70

86,

578

63,7

5520

3358

,029

293

58,3

222,

610

977

1,38

14,

968

344

445

952

1,74

16,

709

65,0

3120

3459

,190

297

59,4

872,

662

997

1,40

85,

067

351

453

972

1,77

66,

843

66,3

3020

3560

,373

304

60,6

772,

715

1,01

71,

437

5,16

935

846

299

11,

811

6,98

067

,657

2036

61,5

8230

961

,891

2,76

91,

037

1,46

65,

272

365

472

1,01

11,

848

7,12

069

,011

2037

62,8

1331

663

,129

2,82

51,

058

1,49

45,

377

372

482

1,03

11,

886

7,26

370

,392

2038

64,0

6832

364

,391

2,88

11,

079

1,52

55,

485

380

492

1,05

21,

923

7,40

871

,799

2039

65,3

5032

965

,679

2,93

91,

101

1,55

65,

595

387

501

1,07

21,

960

7,55

573

,234

2040

66,6

5733

566

,992

2,99

81,

123

1,58

65,

706

395

511

1,09

42,

000

7,70

674

,698

2041

67,8

2234

168

,163

3,04

21,

140

1,62

55,

807

401

518

1,11

52,

034

7,84

176

,004

2042

68,8

4034

569

,185

3,08

81,

157

1,64

95,

894

407

526

1,13

12,

064

7,95

877

,143

2043

69,8

7335

170

,224

3,13

41,

174

1,67

45,

982

413

535

1,14

82,

096

8,07

878

,302

2044

70,9

2035

671

,276

3,18

11,

192

1,69

96,

072

419

542

1,16

62,

127

8,19

979

,475

2045

71,9

8436

272

,346

3,22

91,

209

1,72

56,

164

425

550

1,18

22,

158

8,32

280

,668

2046

73,0

6436

773

,431

3,27

81,

228

1,75

16,

256

432

558

1,20

12,

191

8,44

781

,878

2047

74,1

6037

374

,533

3,32

71,

246

1,77

66,

349

438

567

1,21

92,

225

8,57

483

,107

2048

75,2

7237

975

,651

3,37

71,

265

1,80

36,

444

445

576

1,23

82,

258

8,70

284

,353

2049

76,4

0138

476

,785

3,42

71,

284

1,83

06,

541

452

584

1,25

62,

291

8,83

285

,617

2050

77,5

4838

977

,937

3,47

91,

303

1,85

86,

640

458

592

1,27

42,

325

8,96

586

,902

2051

77,5

4838

977

,937

3,47

91,

303

1,85

86,

640

458

592

1,27

42,

325

8,96

586

,902

2052

78,7

1139

579

,106

3,53

11,

322

1,88

56,

738

465

603

1,29

52,

363

9,10

188

,207

2053

79,8

9140

180

,292

3,58

41,

342

1,91

46,

840

472

612

1,31

32,

397

9,23

789

,529

2054

81,0

9040

781

,497

3,63

81,

362

1,94

26,

942

479

621

1,33

32,

433

9,37

590

,872

82,3

0641

482

,720

3,69

21,

383

1,97

27,

047

486

630

1,35

32,

469

9,51

692

,236

(1) F

Y 20

14, J

anua

ry -

June

onl

y.

Not

e: F

orec

asts

for F

Y 20

14 -

2017

refle

ct a

n as

sum

ed ra

mp-

up to

full

traffi

c vo

lum

es b

egin

ning

in th

e se

cond

hal

f of F

Y 20

17.




ANNUAL NET REVENUE Tables 8-1 and 8-2 summarize for the two alternatives the total revenue collected annually, the revenue collected under 30 days, the revenue collected over 30 days as estimated by the NCTA, and the administrative fee and civil penalty revenue as estimated by the NCTA. The percent of uncollected toll revenue ranges from approximately 9 percent in the opening year to approxi-mately 3 percent in the later years. When the fee and penalty revenue is included, the total reve-nue collected is only slightly lower that the gross toll revenue. Figure 11 presented earlier also illustrates the toll revenue collected in comparison to the gross toll revenue for the two alterna-tives.

DISCLAIMER

Current accepted professional practices and procedures were used in the development of these traffic and revenue forecasts. However, as with any forecast of the future, it should be under-stood that there may be differences between forecasted and actual results caused by events and circumstances beyond the control of the forecasters. In formulating its forecasts, WSA has rea-sonably relied upon the accuracy and completeness of information provided (both written and oral) by North Carolina Turnpike Authority and other local and state agencies. WSA also has relied upon the reasonable assurances of some independent parties and are not aware of any facts that would make such information misleading. WSA has made qualitative judgments related to several key variables in the development and analysis of the traffic and revenue forecasts that must be considered as a whole; therefore select-ing portions of any individual result without consideration of the intent of the whole may create a misleading or incomplete view of the results and the underling methodologies used to obtain the results. WSA gives no opinion as to the value or merit to partial information extracted from this report. All estimates and projections reported herein are based on WSA’ experience and judgment and on a review of information obtained from multiple state and local agencies, including North Carolina Turnpike Authority. These estimates and projections may not be indicative of actual or future values, and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty. Future developments cannot be predicted with certainty, and may affect the estimates or projections expressed in this report, such that WSA does not specifically guarantee or warrant any estimate or projections contained within this report.




Table 8-1Annual Toll Transactions and Net Revenue Forecasts (Fiscal Year)Monroe Connector/Bypass Preliminary Study Update, Alternative 1

(Thousands)

Fiscal Year

Total Gross Transactions

Gross Toll Revenue

Collected Toll Revenue

Under30 Days

Collected Toll Revenue Over

30 Days (2)

Total Collected Toll

Revenue

Administrative Fees and Civil

Penalty Revenue (2)

Total Net Revenue

Percent Uncollected

Toll Revenue

Percent Uncollected Revenue of

Total Revenue

2014 (1) 4,433 $2,624 $2,318 $66 $2,384 $44 $2,428 9.2% 7.5%2015 26,275 15,479 13,782 360 14,142 243 14,385 8.6% 7.1%2016 33,807 20,584 18,492 494 18,986 322 19,308 7.8% 6.2%2017 39,658 24,746 22,400 567 22,967 361 23,328 7.2% 5.7%2018 41,213 26,070 23,691 563 24,254 354 24,608 7.0% 5.6%2019 43,408 28,258 25,868 543 26,411 331 26,742 6.5% 5.4%2020 45,785 30,765 28,356 524 28,880 310 29,190 6.1% 5.1%2021 47,834 33,187 30,757 530 31,287 304 31,591 5.7% 4.8%2022 49,504 35,460 33,017 536 33,553 297 33,850 5.4% 4.5%2023 51,265 37,892 35,440 541 35,981 291 36,272 5.0% 4.3%2024 53,122 40,511 38,049 545 38,594 284 38,878 4.7% 4.0%2025 55,077 43,216 40,747 549 41,296 278 41,574 4.4% 3.8%2026 56,607 45,847 43,376 554 43,930 272 44,202 4.2% 3.6%2027 57,686 48,445 45,979 559 46,538 264 46,802 3.9% 3.4%2028 58,817 50,996 48,535 561 49,096 257 49,353 3.7% 3.2%2029 60,004 53,678 51,229 564 51,793 250 52,043 3.5% 3.0%2030 61,249 56,394 53,959 564 54,523 243 54,766 3.3% 2.9%2031 62,505 58,972 56,489 564 57,053 238 57,291 3.3% 2.9%2032 63,755 61,626 59,032 585 59,617 241 59,858 3.3% 2.9%2033 65,030 64,399 61,688 616 62,304 247 62,551 3.3% 2.9%2034 66,331 67,297 64,465 643 65,108 252 65,360 3.3% 2.9%2035 67,657 70,325 67,364 673 68,037 257 68,294 3.3% 2.9%2036 69,010 73,490 70,397 702 71,099 262 71,361 3.3% 2.9%2037 70,391 76,797 73,564 735 74,299 268 74,567 3.3% 2.9%2038 71,798 80,253 76,875 768 77,643 273 77,916 3.3% 2.9%2039 73,234 83,864 80,334 802 81,136 278 81,414 3.3% 2.9%2040 74,699 87,638 83,951 838 84,789 284 85,073 3.3% 2.9%2041 76,004 91,358 87,512 874 88,386 289 88,675 3.3% 2.9%2042 77,145 95,012 91,012 909 91,921 293 92,214 3.3% 2.9%2043 78,302 98,812 94,652 946 95,598 298 95,896 3.3% 3.0%2044 79,476 102,765 98,440 983 99,423 302 99,725 3.3% 3.0%2045 80,668 106,875 102,377 1,023 103,400 307 103,707 3.3% 3.0%2046 81,878 111,150 106,472 1,064 107,536 311 107,847 3.3% 3.0%2047 83,107 115,596 110,732 1,107 111,839 316 112,155 3.3% 3.0%2048 84,353 120,220 115,161 1,151 116,312 321 116,633 3.3% 3.0%2049 85,618 125,029 119,768 1,197 120,965 326 121,291 3.3% 3.0%2050 86,903 130,030 124,557 1,244 125,801 330 126,131 3.3% 3.0%2051 88,206 135,232 129,540 1,295 130,835 336 131,171 3.3% 3.0%2052 89,529 140,641 134,722 1,346 136,068 340 136,408 3.3% 3.0%2053 90,872 146,266 140,111 1,400 141,511 346 141,857 3.3% 3.0%2054 92,235 152,117 145,714 1,456 147,170 351 147,521 3.3% 3.0%

(1) FY 2014, January - June only.(2) Applies to transactions for which a second bill is sent. Estimated by NCTA based on business rules.Note: Forecasts for FY 2014 - 2017 reflect an assumed ramp-up to full traffic volumes beginning in the second half of FY 2017.




Table 8-2Annual Toll Transactions and Net Revenue Forecasts (Fiscal Year)Monroe Connector/Bypass Preliminary Study Update, Alternative 2

(Thousands)

Fiscal Year

Total Gross Transactions

Gross Toll Revenue

Collected Toll Revenue

Under30 Days

Collected Toll Revenue Over

30 Days (2)

Total Collected Toll

Revenue

Administrative Fees and Civil

Penalty Revenue (2)

Total Net Revenue

Percent Uncollected

Toll Revenue

Percent Uncollected Revenue of

Total Revenue

2014 (1) 5,098 $2,834 $2,500 $72 $2,572 $51 $2,623 9.2% 7.4%2015 29,588 16,534 14,703 391 15,094 278 15,372 8.7% 7.0%2016 37,734 21,844 19,600 531 20,131 365 20,496 7.8% 6.2%2017 43,904 26,120 23,620 605 24,225 404 24,629 7.3% 5.7%2018 45,449 27,466 24,937 602 25,539 396 25,935 7.0% 5.6%2019 47,523 29,637 27,110 577 27,687 368 28,055 6.6% 5.3%2020 49,792 32,086 29,554 554 30,108 341 30,449 6.2% 5.1%2021 52,020 34,643 32,087 558 32,645 333 32,978 5.8% 4.8%2022 54,170 37,275 34,684 568 35,252 328 35,580 5.4% 4.5%2023 56,446 40,111 37,489 578 38,067 323 38,390 5.1% 4.3%2024 58,855 43,211 40,558 589 41,147 319 41,466 4.8% 4.0%2025 61,405 46,458 43,776 599 44,375 315 44,690 4.5% 3.8%2026 62,901 49,154 46,478 606 47,084 308 47,392 4.2% 3.6%2027 63,300 51,290 48,656 601 49,257 295 49,552 4.0% 3.4%2028 63,755 53,351 50,761 594 51,355 282 51,637 3.7% 3.2%2029 64,268 55,535 52,989 588 53,577 270 53,847 3.5% 3.0%2030 64,839 57,726 55,225 582 55,807 260 56,067 3.3% 2.9%2031 65,791 60,062 57,530 575 58,105 250 58,355 3.3% 2.8%2032 67,107 62,765 60,118 593 60,711 252 60,963 3.3% 2.9%2033 68,449 65,589 62,823 628 63,451 260 63,711 3.3% 2.9%2034 69,818 68,541 65,650 655 66,305 265 66,570 3.3% 2.9%2035 71,215 71,625 68,604 687 69,291 271 69,562 3.3% 2.9%2036 72,639 74,848 71,693 716 72,409 276 72,685 3.3% 2.9%2037 74,092 78,216 74,919 749 75,668 282 75,950 3.3% 2.9%2038 75,573 81,736 78,289 783 79,072 288 79,360 3.3% 2.9%2039 77,085 85,414 81,812 817 82,629 293 82,922 3.3% 2.9%2040 78,627 89,258 85,494 855 86,349 299 86,648 3.3% 2.9%2041 80,001 93,046 89,123 893 90,016 305 90,321 3.3% 2.9%2042 81,201 96,768 92,687 929 93,616 310 93,926 3.3% 2.9%2043 82,419 100,639 96,396 965 97,361 314 97,675 3.3% 2.9%2044 83,655 104,664 100,249 1,004 101,253 319 101,572 3.3% 3.0%2045 84,910 108,851 104,260 1,044 105,304 324 105,628 3.3% 3.0%2046 86,183 113,205 108,432 1,085 109,517 328 109,845 3.3% 3.0%2047 87,476 117,733 112,769 1,129 113,898 333 114,231 3.3% 3.0%2048 88,788 122,443 117,280 1,174 118,454 338 118,792 3.3% 3.0%2049 90,120 127,340 121,971 1,221 123,192 343 123,535 3.3% 3.0%2050 91,472 132,434 126,850 1,270 128,120 349 128,469 3.3% 3.0%2051 92,844 137,731 131,924 1,321 133,245 354 133,599 3.3% 3.0%2052 94,237 143,241 137,202 1,373 138,575 359 138,934 3.3% 3.0%2053 95,650 148,970 142,689 1,431 144,120 365 144,485 3.3% 3.0%2054 97,085 154,929 148,396 1,487 149,883 370 150,253 3.3% 3.0%

(1) FY 2014, January - June only.(2) Applies to transactions for which a second bill is sent. Estimated by NCTA based on business rules.

Note: Forecasts for FY 2014 - 2017 reflect an assumed ramp-up to full traffic volumes beginning in the second half of FY 2017.




While WSA believes that some of the projections or other forward-looking statements contained within the report are based on reasonable assumptions as of the date in the report, such forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materi-ally from the results predicted. Therefore, following the date of this report, WSA will take no responsibility or assume any obligation to advise of changes that may affect its assumptions con-tained within the report, as they pertain to: socioeconomic and demographic forecasts, proposed residential or commercial land use development projects and/or potential improvements to the regional transportation network. It is also emphasized that this study is considered preliminary and findings are subject to consid-erable refinement. It was not performed at a sufficient level of detail to be used in project fi-nancing and is not intended for that purpose. Instead it is intended to provide additional informa-tion and analysis that was not available at the time of the 2006 preliminary study. Very truly yours, WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES David R. Danforth Vice President/Project Manager




Tabl

e 7-

2An

nual

Tol

l Tra

nsac

tions

by

Col

lect

ion

Met

hod

(Fis

cal Y

ear)

Mon

roe

Con

nect

or/B

ypas

s Pr

elim

inar

y St

udy

Upd

ate,

Alte

rnat

ive

2(T

hous

ands

)

Vide

oET

CC

olle

cted

Unc

olle

cted

Fisc

al

Year

Col

lect

edU

ncol

lect

ible

Tota

l ETC

Prer

egis

tere

dW

ithin

15

Day

sAf

ter 3

0 D

ays

Tota

l Vid

eo

Col

lect

edU

nrea

dabl

e Pl

ate

Unb

illab

le

Afte

r 15

Day

sPe

ndin

g Af

ter

30 D

ays

Tota

l Vid

eo

Unc

olle

cted

an

d Pe

ndin

gTo

tal V

ideo

Tota

l Tr

ansa

ctio

ns

2014

(1)

3,67

517

3,69

234

923

636

194

611

210

624

246

01,

406

5,09

820

1521

,910

109

22,0

191,

880

1,27

21,

943

5,09

560

657

51,

292

2,47

37,

568

29,5

8720

1628

,621

143

28,7

641,

994

1,31

02,

766

6,07

061

159

51,

694

2,90

08,

970

37,7

3420

1734

,049

171

34,2

202,

115

1,34

93,

123

6,58

761

761

41,

865

3,09

69,

683

43,9

0320

1835

,623

178

35,8

012,

244

1,38

92,

946

6,57

962

363

11,

815

3,06

99,

648

45,4

4920

1937

,992

191

38,1

832,

380

1,43

02,

592

6,40

262

964

91,

660

2,93

89,

340

47,5

2320

2040

,539

204

40,7

432,

524

1,47

32,

236

6,23

363

366

81,

515

2,81

69,

049

49,7

9220

2142

,963

215

43,1

782,

567

1,43

12,

130

6,12

860

464

91,

462

2,71

58,

843

52,0

2120

2245

,228

228

45,4

562,

611

1,39

02,

083

6,08

457

663

01,

425

2,63

18,

715

54,1

7120

2347

,617

239

47,8

562,

656

1,35

02,

033

6,03

954

961

21,

389

2,55

08,

589

56,4

4520

2450

,136

251

50,3

872,

701

1,31

11,

983

5,99

552

459

61,

353

2,47

38,

468

58,8

5520

2552

,791

266

53,0

572,

746

1,27

51,

930

5,95

150

157

81,

318

2,39

78,

348

61,4

0520

2654

,507

274

54,7

812,

721

1,21

11,

897

5,82

946

554

91,

277

2,29

18,

120

62,9

0120

2755

,232

278

55,5

102,

696

1,15

01,

784

5,63

043

252

21,

207

2,16

17,

791

63,3

0120

2855

,996

281

56,2

772,

671

1,09

21,

680

5,44

340

149

41,

139

2,03

47,

477

63,7

5420

2956

,800

285

57,0

852,

646

1,03

71,

581

5,26

437

346

91,

077

1,91

97,

183

64,2

6820

3057

,646

290

57,9

362,

624

984

1,48

65,

094

346

446

1,01

71,

809

6,90

364

,839

2031

58,6

6229

458

,956

2,67

61,

004

1,38

15,

061

353

455

966

1,77

46,

835

65,7

9120

3259

,835

300

60,1

352,

730

1,02

41,

409

5,16

337

346

996

81,

810

6,97

367

,108

2033

61,0

3130

761

,338

2,78

51,

044

1,43

75,

266

367

473

1,00

41,

845

7,11

168

,449

2034

62,2

5331

162

,564

2,84

01,

065

1,46

75,

372

375

483

1,02

51,

882

7,25

469

,818

2035

63,4

9732

063

,817

2,89

71,

086

1,49

45,

478

382

493

1,04

61,

921

7,39

971

,216

2036

64,7

6732

565

,092

2,95

51,

108

1,52

55,

588

390

503

1,06

61,

958

7,54

672

,638

2037

66,0

6233

266

,394

3,01

41,

130

1,55

55,

699

397

512

1,08

81,

998

7,69

774

,091

2038

67,3

8333

967

,722

3,07

41,

153

1,58

75,

814

405

523

1,10

92,

038

7,85

275

,574

2039

68,7

3134

569

,076

3,13

61,

176

1,61

95,

931

414

533

1,13

12,

078

8,00

977

,085

2040

70,1

0535

370

,458

3,19

91,

199

1,65

16,

049

422

544

1,15

42,

119

8,16

878

,626

2041

71,3

3036

071

,690

3,24

71,

217

1,69

16,

155

428

552

1,17

62,

156

8,31

180

,001

2042

72,4

0036

572

,765

3,29

51,

236

1,71

66,

247

435

560

1,19

52,

189

8,43

681

,201

2043

73,4

8737

073

,857

3,34

51,

254

1,74

26,

341

441

569

1,21

12,

221

8,56

282

,419

2044

74,5

8937

674

,965

3,39

51,

273

1,76

86,

436

448

577

1,22

92,

254

8,69

083

,655

2045

75,7

0738

276

,089

3,44

61,

292

1,79

56,

533

454

586

1,24

82,

289

8,82

284

,911

2046

76,8

4438

677

,230

3,49

81,

312

1,82

26,

631

461

595

1,26

72,

323

8,95

486

,184

2047

77,9

9639

278

,388

3,55

01,

331

1,84

96,

730

468

603

1,28

62,

358

9,08

887

,476

2048

79,1

6639

879

,564

3,60

31,

351

1,87

66,

830

475

613

1,30

62,

394

9,22

488

,788

2049

80,3

5440

480

,758

3,65

71,

371

1,90

46,

933

482

622

1,32

52,

429

9,36

290

,120

2050

81,5

5941

081

,969

3,71

21,

392

1,93

37,

037

489

631

1,34

52,

466

9,50

391

,472

2051

82,7

8341

583

,198

3,76

81,

413

1,96

17,

142

497

640

1,36

72,

504

9,64

692

,844

2052

84,0

2442

284

,446

3,82

41,

434

1,99

27,

250

504

650

1,38

62,

540

9,79

094

,236

2053

85,2

8443

085

,714

3,88

21,

456

2,02

17,

358

512

660

1,40

82,

580

9,93

895

,652

2054

86,5

6443

687

,000

3,94

01,

477

2,05

27,

469

520

670

1,42

92,

618

10,0

8797

,087

(1)

FY 2

014,

Jan

uary

- Ju

ne o

nly.

Not

e: F

orec

asts

for F

Y 20

14 -

2017

refle

ct a

n as

sum

ed ra

mp-

up to

full

traffi

c vo

lum

es b

egin

ning

in th

e se

cond

hal

f of F

Y 20

17.

april 9, 2009 - ncdot

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