The Labor Market Situation in April

Office of Economic PolicyMay 5, 2014

Dr. Jennifer HuntDeputy Assistant Secretary, Microeconomic Policy

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Payroll survey: exceeded high expectations

1-month change, in thousands• April 2014

273• March 2014

202• February 2014

20112-month change, in thousands

• April 2013 to 2014:

2,373• Average:

198

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Previous months revised +36,000The longer trend still shows steady growth

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Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS

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No discrepancy CES versus CPS employment

Looks big in raw data, but no real discrepancy– CES +288,000– CPS -73,000– CPS adjusted to CES concepts +267,000

Multiple job holders +95,000– Counted as extra jobs in CES but not CPS

Self-employment -91,000– Counted in CPS but not covered in CES

So no reason to doubt the CPS employment-population ratio

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Employment growth by super-sector this month

0.4%

0.2%

0.2%

0.5%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

1.0%

0.1%

-0.4%

-0.1% -3

-2

6

9

11

12

15

15

16

28

32

35

40

75

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Information

Utilities

Financial Activities

Mining and Logging*

Transportation and Warehousing

Manufacturing

Government

Other Services*

Wholesale Trade*

Leisure and Hospitality

Construction*

Retail Trade*

Education and Health Services*

Professional and Business Services*

Over-the-month employment change, April 2013, seasonally adjusted, in thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, bls.gov/ces*denotes significance

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Unemployment rate fell significantly…

April 2014 6.3%

March 2014 6.7%

February 20146.7%

April 2013 7.5%

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Long-term unemployment rate ticked down, but remains double pre-recession average

April 2014: 2.2%

March 2014: 2.4%

February 2014:2.5%

April 2013: 2.8%

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…employment rate held steady

April 2014: 58.9%

March 2014: 58.9%

February 2014:58.8%

April 2013: 58.6%

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LFP fell, but essentially flat over past 7 months (lowest since 1978, tied with October & December 2013)

April 2014: 62.8%

March 2014: 63.2%

February 2014:63.0%

April 2013: 63.4%

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Not in Labor Force+988,000

Employed-73,000

Unemployed-733,000

Not in Labor Force84,988,000

Employed139,752,000

Unemployed5,636,000

Fewer people entered the labor force

1,84

3,00

0 4,112,000

2,30

0,00

0 3,587,000

2,548,000

2,257,000

net other 15,000 net other 110,000

net other -6,000

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Specifically, fewer people entered unemployment

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Summary of month

Rapid growth in number of payroll jobs

But many went to people who already had one job

And payroll misses decline in self-employed

Which is how can find no change in the CPS e-pop ratio

Flows from out of the labor force into both unemployment and employment were low this month– These data are quite noisy, however

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Employment growth in recovery is in low-wage jobs

Thank you!

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Employment growth by super-sector over the year

3.6%

2.9%

1.6%

2.2%

3.3%

2.2%

2.3%

0.8%

1.0%

0.7%

5.7%

-0.4%

0.0%

-1.2% -32

-6

-2

49

53

54

99

105

126

189

327

327

412

666

-75 0 75 150 225 300 375 450 525 600 675

Information

Government

Utilities

Mining and Logging

Financial Activities

Other Services

Manufacturing

Transportation and Warehousing

Wholesale Trade

Construction

Retail Trade

Education and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Professional and Business Services

Over-the-year employment change, April 2013 to April 2014, seasonally adjusted, in thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, bls.gov/cesin thousands

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Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough