AQAST Tiger team Activity Improved Lateral Boundary Conditions for

NCEP Operational NAM-CMAQ AQ forecastsAQAST participants:

R. Bradley PierceDaniel Jacob (with Lin Zhang)

Arlene Fiore (with Meiyun Lin)Pius Lee

Additional participants:Todd Schaack – SSEC/UW-MadisonAllen Lenzen – SSEC/UW-Madison

Craig S. Long – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPCChris Barnet – NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

NASA Air Quality Applied Science Team Meeting Madison, WI June 13-15, 2012

Problem to be solved: National Air Quality Forecast Guidance Capability (NAQFC) NAM-CMAQ Air Quality forecasts are currently constrained with static lateral boundary conditions (LBC). Using climatological 3-dimensional (3D) tropospheric P-L distributions to predict background ozone concentrations within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) provides a cost effective means of improving background ozone predictions within NAM-CMAQ.

Currently developing capabilities to assimilate GOES Sounder TCO retrievals into the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ; http://www.cmaq-model.org/) model using the NCEP Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis scheme under NOAA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) funding

AQAST Tiger Team proposal extends this work to include improved estimates of tropospheric ozone production/loss processes to support development of EUMETSAT METOP Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and NASA NPP Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) ozone retreival assimilation within the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS)

NOAA/NESDIS Ozone Assimilation Development

Focus on July 2011 (DISCOVER-AQ) time period for improved tropospheric ozone P-L testing due to availability of NMMB-CMAQ with capability for “tightly coupled” 56-level CMAQ formulation to better resolve the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere ozone gradients

• Conduct GDAS/GFS cycling experiments with GEOS-CHEM monthly mean POX, LOX during July 2011 to assess impact on GFS meteorological forecast skill (Jacob, Pierce)• Positive or neutral impact needed for NCEP approval to move forward with

development • Conduct “tightly coupled” NAM-CMAQ GOES TCO assimilation experiments with

updated GFS lateral boundary conditions (Pierce, Lee)

• Generate full year (or multi year) AM3 POX, LOX climatologies with and without biomass burning emissions for use in GDAS/GFS (Fiore)

56 level NAM-CMAQ vs DISCOVER-AQ ozonesondes

DISCOVER-AQ ozonesonde data provided by Anne Thompson PSU

Significant low bias above 300mb.Significant underestimate in variance above 700mb

56 level NAM-CMAQ +GFS LBC+ GFS UTLS + GOES TCOvs DISCOVER-AQ ozonesondes

DISCOVER-AQ ozonesonde data provided by Anne Thompson PSU

Improved representation of variance above 700mbStill relatively large low biases in mid troposphere and high biases in UTLS

GFS

Ozo

neCM

AQ O

zone

GFS LBC+GFS UT/LS

RAQMS MLS+OMI vs DISCOVER-AQ ozonesondes

DISCOVER-AQ ozonesonde data provided by Anne Thompson PSU

Biases generally less then 20%

UT/LS variance captured in RAQMS analysis

Representation of global tropospheric O3 PL coupled with assimilation of NASA MLS and OMI ozone measurements results in good agreement with DISCOVER-AQ ozone sondes

(used to validate GDAS 3D O3 PL)

1. Operational NCEP GDAS (T574L64, 27 KM) analysis system has been ported to new NESDIS/STAR S4 super computer at UW-Madison SSEC and July 2011 GDAS control experiments have been completed (cycling 6hr analysis with 5-day forecasts)

2. Lin Zhang (Harvard) provided GEOS-Chem model output for July 2011 and Meiyun Lin (Princeton) provided annual AM3 model output for 2010 • 3hr averaged 3D ozone production rate and loss frequency, surface deposition• 3hr 3D cloud fraction, optical depths, temperature

3. 3D merged GFS (stratosphere) + GEOS-CHEM (troposphere) ozone PL developed for use in GFS and source code adapted for inclusion of 3D O3 P-L.

4. Short term (10-day) GDAS cycling experiments conducted with 3D diurnally averaged merged GFS/GEOS-CHEM O3 PL (3D diurnally varying O3 PL experiments currently underway)

Tiger Team Progress:

Default GFS July O3 PL

July 2011 3D merged GFS + GEOS-CHEM O3 PL

Surface O3 (GFS Control)

Surface O3 (GFS + GEOS-CHEM Merged O3 PL)

Surface O3 (RAQMS MLS+OMI Analysis)

850mb O3 (GFS Control)

850mb O3 (GFS + GEOS-CHEM Merged O3 PL)

850mb O3 (RAQMS MLS+OMI Analysis)

500mb O3 (GFS Control)

500mb O3 (GFS + GEOS-CHEM Merged O3 PL)

500mb O3 (RAQMS MLS+OMI Analysis)

Stratosphere

Troposphere

UTLS

Stratosphere

Troposphere

UTLS

Stratosphere

Troposphere

UTLS

The implementation of 3D tropospheric O3 PL within GFS supports a newly funded FY12 Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) NOAA internal Science and Development Implementation (JSDI) proposal entitled "Assimilation of IASI ozone retrievals and radiances within GDAS“.

However, the original objective of supporting the National Air Quality Forecast Guidance Capability (NAQFC) is currently uncertain due to proposed FY13 NOAA budget cuts which would eliminate NAQFC.

We intend to redirect our effort to support improving LBC for regional AQ prediction under the NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) climate and air quality research program.