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ARAB BAROMETER: SELECTED FINDINGS WAVE TWO (2011) and WAVE ONE (2006) ISLAM AND THE STRUGGLE FOR A POLITICAL FORMULA: FINDINGS FROM THE 2010-2011 ARAB BAROMETER Mark Tessler University of Michigan Slide 2 Why Islam? Arabs and Muslims often say that Westerners are obsessed with Islam, believing that it breeds extremism and violence the so-called Clash of Civilizations thesis. But while Arabs and Muslims are correct to complain that misinformation and stereotypes sometimes characterize Western thinking about Islam, the place of religion in the governance of Arab countries is in fact an important, and contested, issue in domestic Arab politics and now more than ever. Ali Gomaa, the Grand Mufti of Egypt: Egypts revolution has swept away decades of authoritarian rule but has also highlighted an issue that Egyptians will grapple with as they consolidate their democracy: the role of religion in political life. Hamadi Jebali, Secretary General of Tunisias al-Nahda Party (and now Tunisian prime minister): What kind of Democracy for the New Tunisia: Islamic or Secular? Tariq Harb, Iraqi constitutional lawyer and media personality: A central element in the struggle to define Iraqs emergent democracy is the question of how to balance religion and secularism. Slide 3 Arab Barometer: Second Wave Most surveys used area probability sampling. Data are weighted by age and education when needed. ** Being corrected and not included in present analysis. Slide 4 All Countries a Men of religion should have influence over government decisions Column Percent Cumulative Percent Strongly Agree11.5 Agree31.342.8 Disagree42.385.1 Strongly Disagree14.9100.0 Religion is a private matter and should be separated from socio-political life Column Percent Cumulative Percent Strongly Disagree13.0 Disagree25.238.2 Agree37.475.6 Strongly Agree24.4100.0 Support for Islam in Politics and Society a Nine countries, pooled analysis; weighted to adjust for sample size differences; only Muslim respondents included. Slide 5 Country Date of Survey Men of religion should have influence over government decisions (Str. Agr./Agr. Average 43%) Religion is a private matter and should be separated from socio- political life (Str. Dis./Dis. Average 38%) JordanDec. 2010 46%45% PalestineDec. 2010 42%48% SudanDec. 2010 57%50% YemenFeb. 2011 61%50% IraqFeb-Mar 2011 47%28% AlgeriaApr-May 2011 27%25% KSAMay-Jun 2011 39%55% EgyptJun-Jul 2011 37%21% TunisiaSep-Oct 2011 25%22% Support for Islamic Influence by Country Dark Green = Favorable toward Islamic influence by 9 or more points above average Tan = Unfavorable toward Islamic influence by 9 or more points below average Slide 6 Men of religion should have influence over the decisions of government Religious practice is a private matter and should be separated from socio-political life Survey Item (% Strongly Agree/Agree) S. Agree/ Agree (favors Islamic influence) Disagree/ S. Disagree (not favor Islamic influence) S. Agree/ Agree (not favor Islamic influence) Disagree/ S. Disagree (favors Islamic influence) Democracy may have problems but it is better than any other form of government (82%)80%83%85%77% Islam requires that in a Muslim country the political rights of non-Muslims be inferior to those of Muslims (28%) 39%20%25%34% A university education is more important for a boy than a girl (27%)33%22%26%28% On the whole, men make better political leaders than women (76%)81%72% 82% The culture of the US and other Western countries has many positive attributes (60%)57%63% 56% Despite negative US foreign policies, most ordinary Americans are good people (56%)54%58% 60%52% Different Visions and Worldviews? Dark Green = difference of 9 or more Slide 7 Accounting for Variance: Drivers and Pathways Dependent Variable: Support for Islam in Politics and Society (2-8 scale, 8 = more) support) Selected Hypotheses: More Support Predicted If: Unfavorable Regime Evaluation Conservative Cultural Values Low Educational Level Methodological Considerations Only Muslim respondents Pooled data and weighting OLS, holds other IVs constant Control variables (religiosity, demographics) Disaggregation by age (and sex) Compare regimes based on Islamic connection Slide 8 Regime without Islamic Connection All Respondents Younger Respondents Older Respondents Unfavorable Assessment of Ruling Regime.106** (.032) -.006 (.046).212** (.044) Lower Support for Gender Equality.308** (.032).309** (.046).309** (.045) Lower Level of Education -.099** (.032) -.132** (.048) -.107** (.042) Regime with Islamic Connection a All Respondents Younger Respondents Older Respondents Unfavorable Assessment of Ruling Regime -.245** (.047) -.136 (.072) -.326** (.062) Lower Support for Gender Equality.168** (.046).270** (.071).088 (.064) Lower Level of Education.108* (.050).048 (.081).172** (.060) Regression coefficients; SE in parentheses; *p