Abdallah Al DardariChief Economist

ESCWA

&

Khalid Abu-Ismail

Chief, Development Policy Chief, Development Policy

Section, ESCWA

23rd September 2013

UN Building

New York

• The report is a product of collaboration between League of Arab States, the United

Nations organizations members of the Regional Coordination Mechanism (RCM) and

the Regional United Nations Development Group for the Arab States, and coordinated

by the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA).

• Two years to go to 2015, this is the fourth and final Arab MDG report.

• The content:

– Assessment of MDG

progress

– Rethinking a post-2015

development agenda for

The Report: Objectives and Methodology

development agenda for

the Arab region

• Following the metadata guidelines, the report uses statistics from both national and international sources

Three main messages

1. Overall, strong progress on many MDG targets, but with deficits in addressing inequality, quality, governance and regional partnership.

2. Recent political transitions in some countries provide an opportunity to meet people’s aspirations, yet they an opportunity to meet people’s aspirations, yet they are a current threat to MDG progress.

3. The post-2015 development framework should have, at its core, pillars that promote good governance; emphasize the quality, not just the quantity of development; empower women; reduce inequalities; and foster sustainable development for all.

1. Despite strong

progress towards

achievement of

many MDG targets,

inequalities remain inequalities remain

between countries

and within

countries

Primary net enrolment rates, per cent � Primary school enrolment

and literacy rates in the

region have increased.

� The region is increasingly

close to gender parity in

education for primary,

secondary as well as

tertiary enrolment.

� But regional averages hide

97

77

92

84

83

56

85

Maghreb

GCC

LDCs

Arab region

Significant gains towards universal access Significant gains towards universal access

to education and gender parityto education and gender parity

� But regional averages hide

disparities across sub-

regions for both MDG 2

and MDG 3, in particular

slow progress by the LDCs

93

97

92

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Mashreq

Maghreb

1999 2011*

Under-five mortality rate per 1,000 live births

� Mashreq, Maghreb and

GCC are on track in terms

of reducing child mortality

(MDG 4) and improving

maternal health (MDG 5).

But progress in the Arab

region as a whole is slow in

75 74

152

90

129

5860

80

100

120

140

160

Three out of four subThree out of four sub--regions have made regions have made

notable achievements towards reducing child notable achievements towards reducing child

mortality and improving maternal healthmortality and improving maternal health

region as a whole is slow in

meeting the targets, mainly

due to slow progress by

the LDCs.

2926 29

8

0

20

40

Mashreq Maghreb GCC LDCs Arab region

1990 2011 Target

Births attended by skilled health personnel

� On average the Arab region

has improved access to health

care, but the LDCs stagnate at

a low level.

� Analysis at the household

level reveals glaring disparities

between rich and poor:

99

34

69

58

96

32

52

Maghreb

GCC

LDCs

Arab region

Progress towards universal access to Progress towards universal access to

reproductive health care is held back by reproductive health care is held back by

geographical and economic disparitiesgeographical and economic disparities

between rich and poor:

◦ The richest quintile benefits

from almost universal access to

health care, while the poorest

quintile suffers from widespread

lack of access to services.

82

83

46

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Mashreq

Maghreb

1990s 2010*

Millions more in the region Millions more in the region

have access to safe drinking have access to safe drinking

water and improved sanitation, water and improved sanitation,

even though the ruraleven though the rural--urban urban

divide deepeneddivide deepened

Proportion of the population using improved sanitation facilities

75 73

94

25

64

90

84

99

34

75

20

40

60

80

100

909493

98100

Proportion of the population with access

to improved drinking water sources

The destruction of The destruction of

infrastructure due to infrastructure due to

conflict prevents sufficient conflict prevents sufficient

progress towards the targets progress towards the targets

of MDG of MDG 7 7 in some parts of in some parts of

the region. the region.

0

Mashreq Maghreb GCC LDCs Arab region

1990 2010 Target

90

81

58

80

93

82

54

81

0

20

40

60

80

Mas

hre

q

Mag

hre

b

GC

C

LD

Cs

Ara

b r

egi

on

1990 2010 Target

Prevalence of undernourishment, per cent

6.4 5.97.5

42.0

13.9

10.3

5.2 5.0

39.2

15.3

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45� Food insecurity, due to

factors including conflict,

poor environmental

management and volatile

food prices, is severe in

some countries.

� Above 50 million people in

Too many people still suffer from Too many people still suffer from

undernourishmentundernourishment

5.9 5.2 5.0

0

5

Mas

hreq

Mag

hreb

GC

C

LD

C

Ara

b re

gion

1991 2011 Target

� Above 50 million people in

the region are

undernourished, up from

30 million in 1990.

Summary of MDGs: Despite deficits in MDG 1 & 7, Arab region

has performed better than the average of developing regions

-0.152

-0.163

-0.073

-0.249

0.076

-0.096

-0.407

-0.364

-0.207

0.222

-0.146

-0.133

Infant mortality rate

Maternal mortality rate

Births attended by skilled personnel

Access to safe drinking water

Access to basic sanitation

MDGI

-0.191

-0.189

-0.021

-0.060

0.001

-0.034

-0.152

-0.034

-0.125

-0.062

-0.083

-0.003

0.008

-0.392

-0.407

-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3

Children underweight

Population undernourished

Primary enrolment

Youth literacy

Gender parity, primary

Gender parity, secondary

Child mortality rate

Infant mortality rate

Developing region Arab countries

Summary of MDGs: LDCs and countries in

conflict lag significantly behind

-32.3%

-35.1%

-35.2%

-37.3%

-44.8%

-59.0%

-70.9%

MauritaniaPalestineYemenDjiboutiIraqSudanSomalia

27.9%

27.0%

20.3%

5.8%

3.6%

-4.8%

-7.4%

-17.3%

-30.5%

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

OmanEgyptTunisiaSyriaSaudi ArabiaAlgeriaMoroccoJordanComoros

2. The recent events

represent an

opportunity for the

region if the

aspirations of the aspirations of the

people are met, but

also a challenge to

MDG progress by

2015

INCIDENCE OF EXTREME POVERTY, LESS THAN US $1.25 A DAY

7.4

4.1

13.9

5.5

Arab region

� Extreme poverty is comparatively low in the region and has declined slowly from 5.5 per cent in 1990 to 4.1 in 2010.

� Following the political turmoil and conflict

2.2

5.7

21.6

2.2

1.3

17.8

2.5

4.7

13.9

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Maghreb

Mashreq

LDCs

1990 2010 2012

turmoil and conflict witnessed in some countries of the region, the proportion of extreme poverty spikes to 7.4 per cent in 2012.

� According to national poverty lines, poverty also rose from 22% to 23%.

TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES,

PER CENT

17.5

12.9 4

17.1

18.9

14.8

14

16

18

20

� Unemployment is expected

to have reached 14.8 per

cent in 2013, which is above

the 1990 level.

� The estimated increases in

poverty and unemployment

9.2

12.9

1.9

12.4

10.4 11

.3

8.4

4.7

10.010

.9

5.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mag

hreb

Mas

hreq

LD

C

GC

C

Ara

b re

gion

1990 2010 2013

poverty and unemployment

are expected to contribute

to a continuing increase of

people suffering from

hunger.

� One out of five in the near

future and up from 15 per cent

in 2011.

GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS

DEBT, PER CENT OF GDP

72

64

76

64

8084

70

80

90

� Mashreq and the LDCs are facing increased debt levels� Some middle-income countries are

above the 60 per cent debt-to-GDP threshold for debt sustainability

� All LDCs are above the 40 per cent

22

64

17

25

64

13

22

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Maghreb Mashreq* LDC GCC

2010 2011 2012

� All LDCs are above the 40 per cent debt-to-GDP threshold for debt sustainability

� Government fiscal deficits are rising� From 2011 to 2012, the deficits

grew from 2.3 per cent to 4.5 per cent in the LDCs, and from 5 per cent to 8.4 per cent in the Mashreqcountries

3. The post-2015

development

framework should

have, at its core,

pillars that

promote good promote good

governance;

emphasize the

quality, not just

the quantity of

development

Drive and embody inclusive development

through good governance

� The fact that some of the countries

caught in the recent wave of

political instability were also

among the region’s leading MDG

achievers raises important achievers raises important

questions about critical issues that

have been overlooked by the

MDG framework.

� In the Arab region, in particular in

the countries that have gone

through political transition, the

rebuilding of institutions is critical.

Declining voice and accountability along with

rising income in the Arab region

ECA 1996

LAC 1996

SAS 1996 LAC 2011

SAS 2011

SSA 2011

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40V

oice

and

acc

ount

abili

ty

EAP 1996

GCC 1996

LDC 1996

Maghreb 1996

Mashreq 1996AC1996

SSA 1996

EAP 2011

ECA 2011

GCC 2011LDC 2011

Maghreb 2011

Mashreq 2011 AC2011

-1.80

-1.60

-1.40

-1.20

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.50

Voi

ce a

nd a

ccou

ntab

ility

Log GDP per capita

Emphasize the quality, not just the quantity of

development

� The quality of services that affect development (education, health care etc.) should be firmly incorporated in the post-2015 agenda.

� Not just rate of growth but quality of growth should be prime attention of measuring success in the new development agenda.

� Similarly, quality of life of men and women, and the personal freedoms they have needs greater attention in monitoring any set of development goals.

Rethink indicators to monitor poverty and

inequality

� Reliance on the international

fixed poverty line of US $1.25

raises concerns for many

developing countries, especially

in the Arab region.in the Arab region.

� Measures of inequality should

be more reliable and account

for actual disparities.

� Measures need to go beyond

just income poverty and

inequality.

National efforts need to combine with regional

and global partnerships for development

1.55

1.05

1.40

1.75� ODA is far below what is

needed for the LDCs, given

their limited MDG

achievements.

0.650.59

0.400.46

0.36

0.27 0.260.34 0.34

0.00

0.35

0.70

1990

-94

1995

-99

2000

-04

2005

-10

2011

Arab ODA / GNI DAC ODA / GNI

� ODA from Arab donor

countries as a share of GNI

has declined since 1990,

but Arab donors are still

more generous than OECD-

DAC countries.

Finally, two years to 2015, countries need to prioritise

critical policy interventions to accelerate MDG progress

� First, an Arab food security fund

can expedite relief during food

emergencies

� Given the region’s acute food

security issues, now is the time

for implementation of a fundfor implementation of a fund

� Second, Arab countries need to

improve social protection

� It promises income security

and access to all essential

services to all citizens, and is

a way of ensuring progress

across the MDGs.

The recommendations of the report resonate with the outcome of

UNDG regional consultations and My World priorities

� Arab Development Forum -- Regional civil society consultation

convened by Regional UNDG.

� Over 200 participants discussing a range of development

issues for two days – most of the issues covered by the issues for two days – most of the issues covered by the

Millennium Declaration, including those reflected in the MDGs.

� National Consultations convened by UNCTs in Algeria, Djibouti,

Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan and Yemen.

� Findings of the global My World survey in which, as of today,

over 32,000 participants from Arab States have marked their

priorities.

Five Main Messages from the UNDG Regional Post-

2015 Consultation, Amman (10-11 April 2013)

� Build on the success of the MDGs by retaining simple and relevant goals

around basic development issues such as poverty, education, health,

environment

� But allow for much more tailoring of indicators and targets at regional or

national levels. For example on poverty, the $1.25 cut-off is simply not relevant

in most Arab countriesin most Arab countries

� Allow also for reflection of the importance of quality, not only quantity. For

example in education. We’ve expanded access but quality has not improved

apace.

� Better integrate the broad agenda of the Millennium Declaration – covering

such issues as governance, accountability, peace and security, rights,

international partnership, sustainability in all its dimensions, and inequality

� And last but not least, when it comes to implementation, allow for a much

greater role for civil society in defining development targets, working towards

their achievement, monitoring progress and advocating for effective policies.

My World Votes

Thank you