Arab SpringBy Rufus Hezron Panjaitan

2013

Content2. Content

3. Prelude : The Politics and Ideologies that Shape Middle East

4. What is the Arab Spring? Scope and Background

5. List of Countries Impacted

6. Regional Powers’ Positioning : United States, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar,

Jordania, Israel

7. Regional Power’s Positioning : Iran, Russia

8. Major Arab Uprisings :

9. Tunisia

10. Pre-Condition

11. The Revolution

12. Egypt

13. Pre – Condition

14. The Revolution

15. The Significance of Egypt Revolution

16. The Military Coup Against Morsi

17. The Arguments of the Opposing Parties

18. Libya

19. Pre-Condition

20. The Revolution

21. The Result & The Aftermath

22. What’s in It for the Western Countries?

23. The Fallout : Mali

24. The Background and The Conflict

25. French Intervention and The Result

26. Yemen

27. Pre – Condition

28. The Revolution

29. The Significance of Yemen

30. SUNNI-SHIA COLD WAR

31. The Shia Crescent

32. Influence Map

33. Condition of Shi’ites in Noteable Countries

34. Shiah Patron : Iran

35. Politics

36. Aggressive Foreign Policy

37. Military

38. Bahrain

39. Pre – Condition

40. The Revolution and GCC Intervention

41. The Significance of Bahrain

42. Syria

43. Pre-Condition

44. The Revolution

45. Mapping of the Conflict

46. Parties Involved – Pro Regime

47. Parties Involved – Pro Rebels

48. Parties Involved – Pro Rebels

49. Parties Involved – Neutral

50. Why not foreign intervention like Libya?

51. What if the US Intervene Anyway?

52. The Chemical Weapon Issue – Obama’s Red Line

53. The Chemical Weapon Issue – US’ Empty Threat and Russia’s

Upperhand

54. The Chemical Weapon Issue – Some Cartoons

55. Spillover : Lebanon

56. Potential Civil War

57. Spillover : Iraq

58. Long Lasting Conflict

59. What if Saddam still Ruled Iraq in 2011?

60. Are these Mossad conspiracy?

61. Are these CIA conspiracy?

62. Why Arab Monarchies Survive

63. The Failure of the Arab Spring : The Rise of Al Qaeda

Prelude : The Politics and Ideologiesthat Shape Middle East

Secularists / Liberalists :All Arab republics.Authoritarian.Full support from the military.

Most powerful state : Arab Republic of Egypt.

The Monarchies :Traditional.Authoritarian.

Most powerful state : Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

The Islamists : Support sharia form of government.Democratic.Educated, technocrat.

Most powerful entity : Moslem Brotherhood.

The Salafi Jihadists : Agenda : global Islamic caliphate.Puritanical, strict Shariaimplementation.Reject any Western culture : democracy, education, politics.Anti non-moslem, anti non-Sunni.

Most powerful entity : Al Qaeda.

The Shi’ites : Try to exert influence on the region.

Most powerful entity : Islamic Republic of Iran.

Fought wars in 1950s-1970s

Now allies

Terrorism

Cold war

THE SUNNIS

The Western countries :United StatesEuropean UnionIsrael

Cold war

Allies

What is the Arab Spring?Scope & Background

“Arab Spring” term is coined by the Western media

Etymology :

Refers to a revolutionary wave throughout the Arab world beginning in December 2010 in Tunisia.

Allusion to the European Revolution of 1848 called “The Springtime of Revolution” and which Czechoslovakia revolution of 1968 called “Prague Spring”.

The Background :

Politics :

The Arab world (North Africa & Middle East) is dominated by dictatorial republics and absolute monarchies.

As of 2010, the only advanced democracy in the Middle East are Israel and Turkey. Iran’s democracy is highly disputed, Lebanon’s is dysfunctional and Iraq’s is still very new.

Economy :

Rising of : living standards + literacy rates + educated youth

vs

Lack of government reform + 2007-2008 world food price crisis + economic decline

Scope :

This term only applies to : Arab states (North Africa and Middle East)

Exclude :

- “Green Revolution” in Iran (before Arab Spring, and Iranians are Persian, not Arab)

- Mali conflict (considered as ‘spillover’ of Libyan revolution).

Started 19 December 2010 in Tunis, Tunisia, after self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi

List of Countries Impacted

United StatesSupposed to be supporting all western-style democracy.Committed to the survival of Israel.Committed to the survival of Saudi Arabia.High dependency on Middle East oil production and distribution.No diplomatic relation with and hostile toward Iran.No appetite for another war in Middle East/moslem countries, withdrawing from Iraq and Afghanistan.Traumatic of the Afghanistan mujahideen experience supplying too many weapon which ended up in the hands of terrorists hostile toward American interests.

IsraelAnxious of the instability in Egypt and Jordan. Both countries are in peace agreement and have diplomatic relationship with Israel.Despite technically still at war with Syria, Syrian government (who never attempted any military campaign against Israel in since 1974) is still preferable than the rebel.Enmity toward Iran and Hezbollah. Disrupting weapon supplies to Hezbollah and dismantling nuclear capabilities of Iran is imperative.

Saudi ArabiaConservative Wahhabi kingdom considers Shiism as apostasy. Discriminating toward its Shiite citizens.Fear of growing Iranian military and political influence.Anxious over the growing influence of Moslem Brotherhood.No 1 biggest oil reserve.Patron of Wahhabiism.Has a restive Shiite minority in oil rich Eastern Province.

Regional Powers Positioning

TurkeyConsiders the model of Middle Eastern democracy, respected by the Arabs revolutionary and the US.Growing economic power in Middle East.Bordering countries in crisis or hostile: Greece, Georgia, Armenia, Syria, Iraq, Iran.Important NATO member.

QatarGrowing economic & political power.Aggressively trying to make its influence more powerful in the Middle East, competing Saudi influence.

JordanMajority of its citizens are Palestinian.Economic decline.Jordanian monarch are not in a strong position to enforce dictatorship to its people.Anxious over the growing influence of Moslem Brotherhood.Not too strong military, strong special forces, strong intelligence.Popular King Abdullah II and Queen Rania.

Regional Power Positioning

RussiaGrowing economic, political and economic power, trying to regain international influence that was lost after the collapse of Soviet Union.Against American hegemony.Major military hardware supplier to many Middle Eastern countries.Syria is considered as its main foothold in the Middle East.

IranPatron of Shiism.Hostile toward Israel and United States.The strongest military in the region.Wields strong influence toward many insurgent organizations (proxies) in other countries in the region.No 4 biggest oil reserve.

Major Arab Uprisings

TUNISIA

Pre Condition

Country profile :The most secular Arab country (polygamy is forbidden).One of the most competitive countries in Africa and in Arab world.Major income from mining, industry (export) and tourism.High unemployment among youth.

President : Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.Ruled since 1987 through a bloodless coup.Per capita GDP more than tripled from 1986 to 2008.Poverty decrease, but still high unemployment.Ruled with iron fist, utilizing secret police, jailing activitists and protesters.Low freedom of press.Corruption, nepotism and cronyism are rampant.

The Revolution

The Result :President Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia on 14 January 2011.

The Aftermath :First free election won by Ennahda party (Islamist party formerly banned by Ben Ali government).Debate on how far the application of Islamic values, considering European tourism still contributes major income.Tunisian revolution triggered the domino effect of demonstrations in Egypt and other Arab countries, dubbed by the western press as “The Arab Spring”.Assassination of two popular opposition (secular) figures added tensions between the Islamists and the secularists.

The Trigger :Mohamed Bouazizi (26), street vendor selling vegetable, had his cart and produce confiscated by police in SidiBouzid. After several unsuccessful attempts to regain his produce, on 17 December 2010 he poured himself inflammable liquids in front of the police headquarter and set himself on fire.

The Demonstrations :Initially protesting the mistreatment of Bouazizi.The demonstration grew and the demands included freedom, eradication of corruption and the ousting of President Ben Ali.Total deaths : 338.

EGYPT

Pre Condition

Country profile :Governed by Nasserite (secular) government.GDP slowing caused by global economic crisis.High unemployment among educated youth.

President : Hosni Mubarak.Ruled since 1981 after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat.Ruled with iron fist, utilizing secret police, jailing activitists and protesters.Low freedom of press.State of Emergency still applied, enabling the State apparatus to jail anyone without trial in the name of national security.Corruption, nepotism and cronyism are rampant.Grooming his son Gamal Mubarak as successor.Hated Moslem Brotherhood, banned the organization and jailed many of its members.

The Revolution

The Demonstrations :Centered in Tahrir Square, Cairo and other cities.Violent clash between opposition vs police, Interior Departement forces, and supporters of Mubarak who utilize camels, horses, and firearms.The main oppositions are secular democratic youth and activists. Moslem Brotherhood and other Islamists initially hesitated to join.The military, led by Defense Minister Gen. Mohamed Hussein Tantawi later decided to ‘ride’ with the opposition wave which lead to Mubarak’s downfall. The military formed the Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces (a junta) :

To take over Mubarak’s government.Dismissed the parliament.Create new constitution.Prepared a free and democratic general election.

Total deaths : 300+.

The Result :President Mubarak’s resignation on 11 February 2011.State of Emergency is lifted.Mubarak brought to trial.

The Aftermath :First free election won by Freedom and Justice Party (Moslem Brotherhood). The secular opposition proved to be not as ready as MB, which already organized underground during decades of ban under Egyption government.Violent clash between Christians and moslems. Note : the Egyptian churches discouraged its member from joining demonstration against Mubarak.Mohammad Morsi’s government faced opposition from secular parties especially after decree to grant him more judicial power.Increase of terrorist activities in Sinai dessert.Morsi was overthrown by popular uprising and coup in 2013. Clashes between MB vs secular + military + police.

Significance of Egypt’s Revolution

ISRAEL Will the new government of Egypt, led by Moslem Brotherhood :Cancel the peace treaty with Israel? (Egypt’s military is the strongest in the Arab world. Israeli survival depends on the peace treaty with Egypt and Jordan).Support Hamas and fighting proxy war against Israel from Gaza Strip? (Note : Hamas is the descendant of Moslem Brotherhood).

Progressed so far :Mohammed Morsi stated that his government will be committed to the peace treaty with Israel.

The Egyptian Armed Forces is in no condition to fight war with Israel. It has been receiving billion of dollars of aid from US government, resulting in military industrial complex.The Egyptian government still needs US government help and money to rebuild the country.

Morsi would have more standing and popularity as mediator of Hamas and Israel, as proven in the 2013 Hamas-Israeli conflict.

UNITED STATESEgypt is the most populous country of the Arab world.What concerns Israel also concerns the US.Egypt’s military is the 2nd biggest receiver of US military aid.Egypt has the Suez canal, one of the main world trade route.Most Americans have animosity toward Moslem Brotherhood, put more hope in the secular parties of the opposition. But the political reality forced Washington to deal with MB.

Who concerns the most with Egypt’s revolution?

Military Coup Against Morsi

THE COUPJune 2012 Mohamed Morsi from Freedom and Justice Party (Moslem Brotherhood) was elected as president.His rule had been subject to on going protests which culminated in Tamarod movement creating massive demonstration in June 2013. The parties withdrew their coalition from the government.In July the Army intervened and coup was committed by the Army under the leadership of Minister of Defense Gen. Abdul Fatah al-Sisi.President Morsi and Moslem Brotherhood leadership were arrested without any released information on their whereabouts.The military appointed interim government with Adli Mansour as president and the parliament was dissolved.

THE IMPACTClashes between military and pro-Morsi protesters, resulted in many deaths. Coptic churches and Christians were attacked as retaliation.Sinai Islamist insurgent staged attack against military & police.Sharp polarization of Egyptian people between pro Moslem Brotherhood vsanti Moslem Brotherhood.

The Arguments of the Opposing PartiesPRO MORSI ARGUMENTS :Morsi is the legitimate and democratically elected president.Morsi repeatedly offered Cabinet positions to secularists but repeatedly rejected.Elements in Morsi’s government never supported his presidency and conspire to undermine him .

EGYPTIAN SUPPORTING MORSI:Moslem Brotherhood and the Justice & Development Party.Al Gama’a al IslamiyyaIslamist & Salafist symphatizers.Sinai Islamist insurgency.

COUNTRIES SUPPORTING MB :Turkey The head of government is from the similar Islamist party.Tunisia The head of government is from Moslem Brotherhood party, Ennahda.Qatar Its foreign policy is Islamist-friendly.Iran The government is Islamist, despite Shi’ite.

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/02/world/africa/egypt-explained/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

ANTI MORSI ARGUMENTS :He had been amassing power for the Moslem Brotherhood.He was increasingly authoritarian and trying to force Brotherhood’s Islamic agenda onto the nation’s law.Rampant crime & struggling economy.

EGYPTIAN SUPPORTING COUP :Tamarod movement & the secularists/liberalists.Da’wa al Salafiyah and Al-Nour Party (Salafists)Grand Imam of Al Azhar, Ahmed el-Tayeb.Coptic Church Pope, Tawadros II.

COUNTRIES SUPPORTING COUP :Syria Assad’s Baath Party government is a long time enemy of Moslem Brotherhood, once massacred them in the town of Hama in 1982.Saudi Arabia Moslem Brotherhood has always been a threat to dictatorship and monarchies.United Arab EmiratesKuwaitJordania

DILLEMATIC POSITION OF THE UNITED STATESAmericans never trusts Islamists, especially Moslem Brotherhood.The US government supported Egyptian armed forces who hates Moslem Brotherhood.The Egyptian military should be kept financed by the US to protect American and Israeli interests in the region.><•Mohamed Morsi is democratically elected as president.•US has to maintain the image as champion and protector of democracy.•There is a law that said that US government should stop any support to a military that overthrew its own democratically elected government. The White House avoided the word ‘coup’ and encouraging the cessation of violence.

LIBYA

Pre Condition

Government by Muammar Gaddafi :Ruled since 1969 after the bloodless coup which abolish the monarcy of King Idris I.Standard of living, life expectancy and literacy grew rapidly during his reign.The government is Islamic version of socialism and direct democracy (similar to the soviet system), as formulated in The Green Book (imitating Mao Zedong’s Little Red Book).Despite formally not the head of government since 1977, he was still considered the head of state (formally) and wields dictatorial power (de facto).Ruled with iron fist, single party system, jailing activitists and protesters.Low freedom of press.Corruption, nepotism and cronyism are rampant.Kept the military weak to prevent coup, but maintained a view strong elite brigade.

Oil :10th largest oil exporter, member of OPEC. National oil company is NOC (National Oil Corporation) with some subsidiaries.Oil field is produced by international oil companies, the biggest is Eni (Italian). Others incl. Repsol, BP, Pertamina, Petrobraz, Gazprom, Exxon Mobil.78% exports to Europe, Italy is the biggest (28%).

The Revolution

From Uprising to the Civil War :Starts in January 2011 in Benghazi.Government responded brutally, involving bombing by fighter jets and military action. Soldier refused to open fire would be executed.Gaddafi used the words “rats”, “cockroaches”, Al Qaeda terrorists on drugs when referring to the protesters.Soon grew into arm clashes, with many defection from government and military.Gaddafi hired mercenaries from Serbia, Niger, Chad, the Tuaregs from Mali to make up the defection.The rebels leadership is National Transitional Council (NTC) with Mustafa Abdul Jalil as chairman. Many government and multilateral organization recognize NTC as legitimate representative of Libyan people.

The International Reaction & Military Intervention (Operation OdisseyDawn / Unified Protector)African Union, having received much money from Gaddafi in the past, was against foreign intervention and encourage a peaceful negotiation.Arab League suspended Libya’s membership and requested the UN Security Council to impose ‘no fly zone’. (Syria and Algeria voted against).Gulf Cooperation Council supported the ‘no-fly zone’.International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Gaddafi, son Saif Al Islam Gaddafi and Abdullah Al Senussi for crimes committed against the demonstrators.United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1970 for embargo and sanction against Gaddafi’s regime, and Resolution 1973 for ‘no-fly zone’.NATO + Jordania + Qatar + UAE military intervention started 19 March 2011. On the ground British and US special forces coordinated the air attack and Qatari special forces were deployed to assist the rebels.

The Result and The Aftermath

Total death during the revolution : 25.000 killed, 4000 missing.

The Result :Gaddafi was found and killed on 20 October 2011 in Sirte.Allegedly assassinated by a French spy, to prevent him revealing his suspicious links with French president Nicolas Sarkozy.His body was on public display with son Mutassim until buried on 24 Oct.

The Aftermath :Free parliamentary election in July 2012, new government formed, constitution is being worked on.Problem :-Discrimination against black Africans, accused as mercenaries for Gaddafi.-The new government is not respected by many of the militia. Calls to disarm were ignored by many of them.-Security : many vigilante and political motivated assasinations.-Ansar Al Sharia, a Salafist militia (branded as ‘Al Qaeda’ in the US) attacked US Consulate and killed American ambassador and three others American (total 10 deaths).

What’s in It for the Western Countries?

OilSince Gaddafi’s era, international oil company already has concessions on the oil fields : Eni (Italia, the biggest oil producer), RepsolYF, Petrobras, Gazprom, Exxon Mobil, Pertamina, Nippon Oil, Sirte Oil Company, BP, Hess Corporation, JAPEX, and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation “Western countries wants to take the Libyan oil” is unlikely.The European countries concern is the stability of Libya to ensure the already existing flow of oil (78% of export to European countries) The longer the civil war the more vulnerable the oil supply.

RefugeesEuropean countries are already struggling with the flow of the muslim migration from North Africa.Social problem : crime, cultural clash, etc.Demographic problem : the muslim immigrant population grows faster than the native European.The rise of many anti-immigrant/xenophobic/far-right organization/political parties.The longer the civil war the more refugees come to European countries.

HegemonyUS : Was engaged in war in two other muslim countries (Iraq & Afganistan), was withdrawing troops. Not in any appetite for a new war.More of the support role. Initiatives and commands were given to UK and France in NATO.UK :•Chance to show it is still a world power (reminiscing British Empire). •Always supports US foreign policy.France :•Francafrique revival.NATO :•Lost its relevance after the Cold War ended. Actively involved in may US-led wars will keep the organization relevant.

The Fallout : MALI

Weapon smuggling route

The Background and The Conflict

Islamist Rules :Strict Sharia law enforced in the cities ruled by AQIM. The Sufi tombs, monuments, shrines, and libraries in Timbuktu, declared by UNESCO as world heritage site, destroyed because they were considered idolatry.

Background :The Tuareg has been fighting for independence of Azawad since 1990s.Libyan civil war caused the influx of weapon to the Tuareg rebels (MNLA) and Islamist Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Ansar Dine, MOJWA.MNLA fought for the independence of Azawad.AQIM & AD fought for imposition of Sharia.

The Conflict :January 2012 : the rebels took 5 towns in Northern Mali.March 2012 : Dissatisfied with the way the government handle the crisis, Malian army committed coup d’etat in capital Bamako, ousting President Amadou Toumani Toure, replacing the government with military junta (CNRDR).The rebel used the political uncertainty to conquer regional capital Kidal, Gao and more territories in Northern Mali.June-November 2012 : conflict between MNLA and the Islamists. MNLA defeatedDecember 2012 : MNLA began peace talk with Malian junta.

French Intervention (Operation Serval) :Requested by the Malian junta.The French led military alliance to free the Northern territories and trained the Malian army.Members of alliance :

-French : army, navy, air force, special forces.-Mali, Chad : army.-USA, Canada, European countries, UAE supported.

French Intervention and The Result

Algeria Hostage Crisis January 2013 :-Amena oil refinery was taken hostage by Mokhtar Belmokhtar (AQIM) : 800 total hostages from 132 nationalities.-Algeria rescue operation result : 67 deaths incl 38 hostages, 1 Algerian security guards and 29 terrorists.

-Result :-Northern territorries freed by January 2013-AQIM and allies retreated and turned to guerilla tactics.-Some of the top men of AQIM killed, incl Mokhtar Belmokhtar.

YEMEN

Pre Condition

Yemen profile :The poorest country in the Arabian peninsula.Modern history full of civil wars.Unification of North and South Yemen in 1990.Governed by Nasserite (secular) government.As of 2010 is struggling with the following insurgencies :

No Organization Ideology Regions Purposes Backers / Sponsors

Flag

1 Ash-Shabab Al-Mu’mineen(Youthful Believers / Al Houthi)

ZaidiShiite Islam

Northern most region, bordering Saudi Arabia

Defending againstdiscrimination by Sunni majority

Iran

2 South Yemen Movement Marxism –Leninism

Former South Yemen regions

Independent Communist South Yemen

-

3 Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) / Ansaral-Sharia (Supporters of Sharia)

SalafistJihadist (Sunni)

Abyangovernorate & surrounding areas

Enforcement of Sharialaw

Al Qaeda network

President : Ali Abdullah Saleh.Ruled since 1990 after the unification.Corruption, nepotism and cronyism are rampant.Grooming his son Ahmed Saleh as successor.

The Revolution

Al Qaeda Attack :When Battle of Sana’a was still raging, Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula / Ansar Al-Shariaoccuppied Abyan governorate and declared “Islamic Emirate”.

The Result :President Saleh’s resignation on 21 February 2012. Handed over authority to Vice President Abdu-Rabbo Mansour al-Hadi.Total death : 2000

The Aftermath : Transition government to prepare the next presidential election in exchange to no

prosecution against the old regime officials. Restructuring of the military. Yemeni army assisted by the US (special forces & drone strikes) regain territories occupied

by AQAP.

The Uprising :Started January 2011 in Sana’a.In April Gulf Cooperation Council tried to mediate.Saleh refused to sign the previously approved deal to step down.Hashid tribe federation, one of the most powerful tribe, led by Sheikh Sadiq al-Ahmar, defected to the opposition. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar and his 1st Armor Division joined.6 of 18 governorates out of government’s control.

Battle of Sana’a : (September – November 2011)Opposition (tribal militias, 1st Armored Division, protesters) vs government (tribal militias, army, police, Republican Guard led by Gen. Ahmed Saleh, the president’s son).Street fighting, artillery & mortar shelling, attack helicopter, fighter jets bombing government buildings and residential areas.Explosion in the presidential mosque badly wounded the president and other officials. President Saleh was treated in Saudi Arabia.

The Significance of Yemen

Saudi Arabia :Southern border to Yemen, where there is Al Houthi (Shia) insurgency.Chaotic Yemeni government stronger Al Houthi insurgency contagious to Saudi’s own Shi’ite restive community.AQAP could launch strike to Saudi from across the border.

United States :Chaotic Yemen could be the breeding ground of terrorism, training camp for AQAP similar to Afganistan pre 9/11.Strategic Yemen geographic position : choke points between Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea crowded world trade route chaotic Yemen will cause insecurity in this route similar to Somalia.Yemen has been a long time ally in a fight against terrorrism.

Iran :A weak Yemeni government stronger Al Houthileverage to Saudi government (similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon).

Cold War

The Shia Crescent

Influence Map

IRANGovernment : Shi’itePeople : Shi’ite

BAHRAINGovernment : SunniPeople : Shi’ite

QATARGovernment : SunniPeople : Sunni

YEMENGovernment : SunniPeople : Sunni

SAUDI ARABIAGovernment : SunniPeople : Sunni

JORDANIAGovernment : SunniPeople : Sunni

LEBANONGovernment : SunniPeople : Sunni & Shi’ite (Hezbollah)

SYRIAGovernment : Shi’iteAlawitePeople : Sunni

IRAQGovernment : Shi’itePeople : Shi’ite

Note : “People” = religion of the majority.= under Iranian influence

Condition of Shi’itesin Noteable Countries

Country Ruling? Majority/Minority? Condition

Saudi Arabia No Min Highly discriminated politically, socially, religiously, economically. Some popular clerics even encourage killing Shi’ites.Mostly living in poverty despite in oil rich Eastern Province.

Bahrain No Maj Discriminated politically.Major opposition in parliament but powerless to the authoritarian monarch.Ruling class is dominated by Sunnis.

Lebanon Parliament Balance Hezbollah is the strongest politicalparty and military forces. State within state.The Sunni government can never touch Hezbollah’s position.

Syria Yes Min Ruling class (Alawites).Prioritizing Alawites among the elites.

Iraq Yes Maj Ruling class.Purging the Sunni representatives from the government.

Shia Patron : IRAN

Politics

Enmity towards the West - Background :Mohammad Mosaddegh was a democratically elected PM in1951. He nationalized Iranian oil which was then owned mostly by British-owned company.MI6 & CIA launched Operation Ajax in 1953 to toppled him from power. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlevi restored the British & American rights to Iranian oil.The Shah ruled with iron fist (utilize the secret police SAVAK), westernize dressing and lifestyle, further alienated the Shi’ite clergy.The 1979 revolution lead by Ayatollah Rohullah Khomeini toppled the Shah and dissolved the monarchy.Islamic Republic of Iran was born :

Conservative Islamic values was enforced.Diplomatic ties with US and UK were cut.Became very Anti-Zionist and anti-western.

Political system :Supreme Leader , the Grand Ayatollah, is the most powerful post, elected for life by the Assembly of Experts (clerical parliement elected by the people). He appoints many strategic posts, incl. chief of the armed forces and the head of intelligence service. President is elected by people through general election for a 4-year-term. He is the highest authority after the Supreme Leader. Theocracy elements combined with democracy elements.

Aggressive Foreign Policy

Historical Legacy :Iran is the home of empires :Achmeneid Empire (550 – 330 BC, founded by Cyrus the Great.Parthian Empire (248 BC – 224 AD)Sassanid Empire (224 – 651 AD)Safavid Empire (1502 – 1736), the patron of Shia Islam.The Iranians have national pride as a nation who had hegemony in territory between Europe and Asia.

Hegemony through proxies :Exported or encouraged similar revolution in foreign countries.Sponsored political and/or armed insurgencies and/or opposition :

Hezbollah (Shi’ite political party in Lebanon) : the most powerful political entities in Lebanon, great influence in parliement, has military that is stronger than Lebanese national army state within a state. Proxy against Israel.Al Houthi (Shi’ite insurgency in Yemen).PKK (Kurdistan Worker Party, Kurdistan nationalists fighting for independence from Turkey).Mahdi Army (Shi’ite insurgency of Moqtada Al-Sadr in Iraq).Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI, Shi’ite political party in Iraq banned by Saddam Hussein. Led by Al-Hakim family). Military wing : Badr Brigade.Shi’ite mujahideen in Afganistan.Hamas (Islamist Palestinian resistance).Bahraini Shi’ite opposition

By having politically politically powerful ‘children’, Iran gains leverage and hopes to be able to influence the oil market in Middle East.Examples :

Hezbollah in Lebanon have evolved from terrorist/resistance organization in Southern Lebanon into currently the most powerfulpolitical party, able to influence and/or intimidate the Lebanese government policy. Currently the most feared enemy of Israel, the only organization who has defeated Israel in a single war.Post-American-invasion Iraqi government, democratically elected, are Shi’ites, influenced more by Tehran than Washington.

“The Iranian government think in a long term while the American government think only in 4-year term.” Robert Baer, retired CIA field agent, in The Devil We Know.

MilitaryMilitary Forces :There are two types :

1. Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran (army/artesh, navy, air force) regular military.2. Army of the Guardian of the Islamic Revolution (Revolutionary Guard, pasdaran) elite forces with its own army, navy, and air force. Also commanded the Basij militia, strategic missiles, nuclear program, and intelligence / special forces Quds Force.

All of them answers to the Supreme Leader (current : Ayatollah Ali Khameini.NOT to the president.

The strongest military in the Middle East (exclude Israel).Self-produced many military hardwares such as : tanks, submarines, APCs, missiles, drones.

Nuclear Ambition :Developing nuclear technology, opposed by Israel, Western countries, and the Sunni monarchs.Keep claiming that the program is for peaceful purposes, but nonetheless challenging Israel’s supremacy and intimidating the region.

Missile Program :Shahab-3 : 2000km range, can reach Africa, Europe, and Asia.Fajr-3 : 2500km range, multiple war heads, radar evading.Sejil-2 : 2000km range, solid-fuel easier to launch.

Strait of Hormuz:It is a choke point connecting Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.Very important route for oil distribution : 17 million /day.Relatively easy to block with a descent Navy.

War in Persian Gulf & Strait of Hormuz blocked oil distribution rising oil prices global economic crisis.

BAHRAIN

Pre Condition

Country profile :Since 1783 ruled by The House of Khalifa, originally a Sunni merchant family. Became British protectorate since 1880.Gained independence in 1971.Current king : Hamad bin Isa Al KhalifaThe Sunni monarch and its British ‘adviser’ ruled with iron fist, repressive toward the Shi’ite majority.Frequent uprisings, government political concessions, broken promises, violent handling of demonstration, extra-judicial detention and torture.Relatively poorer than other Gulf countries. High unemployment.

Geopolitical Challenge :External threat : small island in the Gulf across the much more powerful Shi’ite Iran.Internal threat : majority of its people is Shi’ite, could be more loyal to Iran than to the Sunni monarch.Militarily always rely on other stronger countries :

Great Britain (was protectorate)United States (host its naval base)Gulf Cooperation Council (lead by Saudi Arabia).

The Revolution and GCC Intervention

The Uprisings :Protests began in February 2011 in capital Manama, centered in the Pearl Rounabout. Majority of protesters are Shi’ite, but initially many Sunni opposition also joined.Every demonstration was handled violently by police and military.Many activitists and oppositions were jailed.The uprisings became increasingly sectarian, Shi’ite opposition vs Sunni government.The Shi’ite hardliners later called for the overthrow of the Al Khalifa dinasty.The government suspected Iranian hands in the opposition.

GCC Intervention :In March 2011 the Gulf Cooperation Council deployed Peninsula Shield Force to Bahrain. 1000 Saudi troops with tanks enter Bahrain via King Fahd Causeway. With them were 500 police officers from UAE. Formally to ‘secure key installations’, but allegedly to counter Iranian influence.

Iran protested.Saudi Shi’ites demonstrated against GCC intervention.

The monument in Pearl Roundabout was destroyed by the government.Shi’ite mosques were destroyed by the government, including 400-year-old mosque.Shi’ite opposition parties Al Wefaq and Islamic Action Society, was banned by the government.More repression until today.Total death : 93

The Significance of Bahrain

Saudi Arabia :Bahrain is the backyard, infested with Shi’ites, exposed to Iranian influence.Prolonged uprisings in Bahrain would escalate tensions with its own Shi’ites in Eastern Province.

United States :Bahrain is the frontline stronghold against Iran.Home of the US Navy 5th Fleet.Committed to the security of the Sunni monarchs in the Peninsula.

Iran :A Bahraini government friendly to Iran = a foothold in Arabian peninsula = backyard of Saudi.US naval base could be closed.

SYRIA

Pre Condition

Demographics : 60% Arab-Sunni, 12% Arab-Alawite, 13% Christian, 9% Kurd-Sunni, 6% others (incl. Druze, Shi’ite).

Politics : Governed by single-party government, Ba’ath Party, since coup de’tat in 1964.Hafez Al-Assad governed the country since another coup in 1966. His son Bashar Al-Assad rose to power after Hafez’s death in 2000.Authoritarian, single-party, Alawite-dominated elite, no opposition allowed, state-owned press.Emergency Law applied since 1963 enabled the government to arrest opposition.

Economy : Socialist economy failure : Inefficiency, mismanagement, and corruption in the government, public, and private sectors, illiteracy, poor education, particularly in rural areas, the increasing emigration of professionals, inflation, a growing trade deficit, a high cost of living and shortages of consumer goods, high unemployment uncontrolled & rampant smuggling & black market.Free-Market was introduced in 1991 but benefitted only those connected with the ruling elite and Sunni merchant class in Damascus and Aleppo. Rural areas remained poor, illiterate, and under-developed.

1982 Hama Massacre : Syrian support to the Christian in the Lebanese civil war triggered domestic terrorism and urban guerilla warfare committed by Sunni jihadist targetting government, military, and Ba’ath party.Campaign of repression against Moslem Brotherhood was launched, culminated in Hama Massacre, killing 10.000-40.000 people. Many MB members were killed, tortured, or disappeared.Result : the Alawite, Shi’ite, Druze, and Christian minority relied even more to the Assad regime for protection.

The RevolutionThe Uprising :Inspired by Arab Spring, minor protests demanding government reform occurred in January 2011 .March 2011 in Daraa, the uprising began, triggered by incarceration and torture of several young students because of anti-government graffiti. (Daraa is called “The Cradle of Revolution”).

Clashes with police resulted in civilian fatality. Ba’ath Party headquarters and some government buildings were burnt down by mob. The police responded by firing live ammunition, resulting in more deaths.

By the end of March, mass protests spread nation-wide more clashes more deaths.Government responded harshly, utilizing Emergency Law to arrest and torture oppositions, journalists, lawyers, and human rights activists.In March and April the government offered some concessions, such as political reforms, policy changes, release political prisoners, cut taxes, raise salary of civil servants, more press freedom, increase job opportunities, lifting the Emergency Law., etc. Only the lifting of Emergency Law is fulfilled.

The Sectarian Nature :Despite in the beginning both sides had people of all ethnic & religions, the conflict increasingly became sectarian.

Government used the words “terrorists”, “extremists”, and “takfiri” to refer to the opposition. The government is supportedby minorities : Alawites, Shi’ites, Christians, Druze.The opposition is Sunni dominated. The words “Alawites” and “Shi’ites” became synonymous with “pro-regime”.

The Civil War :In April, military operations were started against the oppositions, involving siege strategy, tanks, helicopter gun-ship, fighter jets firing missiles and cluster bombs.Many soldiers who refuse to open fire were summarily executed, leading to mass defection of Sunni soldiers.The defected soldiers formed The Free Syrian Army in July 2011, based in Turkey.The oppositions formed The Syrian National Council in August 2011, based in Turkey.Foreign jihadists were flooding Syria, incl. Al Qaeda franchises / Salafist Islamists : Jabhat al-Nusra, Fatah al-Islam, Ahrar al-Sham, etc. Suicide bombs were utilized against the regime.Foreign countries covertly support the warring parties.Many of Shi’ite and Alawite holy sites were destroyed by rebels.

Mapping of the Conflict

Syrian National Coalition(Political)

Free Syrian Army(secular)

Syrian Islamic Liberation Front(moderate Islamist)

Syrian Islamic Front(Salafist, incl Ahrar al-Sham)

DISBANDED IN 2013

Durou al-Thawra(Moslem Brotherhood)

USA, UK, France

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar,

Jordan

MoslemBrotherhoodLocation : Syria

HamasLocation : Gaza Strip, Qatar

Al QaedaLocation : Pakistan tribal area

Al Qaeda in IraqInsurgent in Iraq

Jabhat al-Nusra

Fatah al-Islam(Palestinian from Lebanon)

Islamic State of Iraq & al-Sham

(Based in Iraq)

Abdullah Azzam Brigade(offshoot of Al Qaeda in Iraq)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan

Jaish al-Mujahireen wal-Ansar(European jihadist)

Revolutionary GuardIranian special ops

Hezbollah(Lebanese Shi’ite)

Al Houthi(Yemeni Shi’ite)

Syrian Regime-Armed Forces

-Militia (incl. Shabiha)

PFLP-GC(Palestinian leftist

Based in Syria)

Russia

Iran

Iraq

YPG(Popular

Protection Group)

Kurdish SupremeComittee

Iraqi Kurdistan Gov

PYD(Democratic Union Party)

Kurdish National Council

PKK(Kurdistan Worker’s Party)

Insurgent in Turkey

Islamic Front(Salafist, Islamist

SIF + some from SILF)

Jund al Sham

All members join

Parties Involved – Pro RegimeNo Sides Countries /

FactionsLeader Location Ideology Positioning Action

1 Pro Syrian regime

Syrian Regime President Bashar al-Assad

Syria Secular, Alawitedominated

Incumbent regime.If regime falls, fear of genocide against Alawite & Shi’ite minorities

Fighting for survival.Utilizing militias to make up for the defection in the military. Most notorious is the Shabiha, Alawite militia conducting Serbian-style genocide.

2 Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini

Iran Shi’ite Syria is vital as logistical support route to Hezbollah.For hegemony against Israel and Saudi,Syria is an important Iranian foothold in the Levant.

Supplying financial and military aid.Sending Revolutionary Guard to fight with the Assad regime.

3 Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah

Lebanon Shi’ite Syria is vital as logistical support from Iran.Iranian support is vital for Hezbollah’s deterrent against Israel and hegemony inside Lebanon.Many members are veteran of the wars against Israel.

Sending fighters to Syria to enforceAssad’s regime.Fighting Syrian rebels crossing borders in Lebanon.

4 Iraq PM Nuri al-Maliki

Iraq Secular, Shi’itedominated

Close to Tehran’s government.Supporting Assad’s regime & military.Unable to prevent its citizens to move cross-border fighting for either side.

Providing airspace for Iranian support to Syrian regime.Fighting its own Sunni insurgency.

5 Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine –General Command(PFLP-GC)

Ahmed Jibril Yarmouk Camp, Damascus, Syria

Palestiniannationalism, Sunni Palestinian

Close ally of Ba’ath party. Many of its leadership resigned in protest of leader Ahmed Jibril’s insistance of siding with Assad’s regime. Many defection of its members to the rebels.

With Syrian army fighting FSA and Liwa al-Asifa (Palestinians siding with rebels) in Yarmouk refugee camp.

6 Russia President Vladimir Putin

Russia Secular Syria is vital for Russia’s access to warm water the Mediteranean and Black Sea. Russia has naval facility in Tartus.Syria is Russia’s closest in the Middle East.Against Western hegemony, opposing any attempt of the US to intervene in other countries.

Supplying arms to Assad’s regime.Supporting diplomatically.

7 Other foreign fighters

Parties Involved – Pro RebelsNo Sides Countries /

FactionsLeader Location Ideology Positioning Action

8 Pro Rebels

Syrian National Coalition (SNC)Free Syrian Army (FSA)

SNC : Ahmad JarbaFSA : Brig.Gen. Salim Idris

Based in Turkey.Fighting in Syria

Secular, Sunni dominated

Fighting to overthrow Assad’s regime, to form a democratic secular Syria.Desperately need any support, especially no-fly-zone.

Fighting Assad’s regime.Creating shadow government from Turkey.Gathering support politically, financially, and diplomatically.

9 Syrian Islamic Liberation Front

Ahmed Eissaal-Sheikh

Syria Islamism Fighting to overthrow Assad’s regime, to form a democratic Syria based on Sharia.

Fighting Assad’s regime.Gaining support from international Moslem Brotherhood, Saudi and Qatar.

10 Hamas Ismail Haniyeh

Gaza Strip, Palestinian Territorry. DaraaCamp, Damascus ,Syria

Islamism, MoslemBrotherhood

Previously supported by Iran & Assad’s regime.Siding with opposition and distancing from Assad’s regime when civil war broke out.

2 Hamas leaders were killed by Syrian army in Daraa camp.Office in Damascus is closed. Khaled Meshal moved to Qatar.2 Hamas members were executed in Husseinieh camp.Izz ad-Din al-Qassam training Free Syrian Army.

11 Syrian Islamic Front incl Ahraral-Sham

Abu Abdullah al-Hamawi

Syria Salafism Fighting to overthrow Assad’s regime, to form a Syrian Islamic state based on Salafi Sharia implementation.Receiving much support from Qatar.Against suicide bombing.

Fighting Assad’s regime.Providing humanitarian services and relief to local communities.Implement strict Sharia law in occupied territories.Disband to form Islamic Front.Closely aligned with Jabhat al-Nusra.

12 Islamic Front Ahmed Abu Issa

Syria Salafism Fighting to overthrow Assad’s regime, to form a Syrian Islamic state based on Salafi Sharia implementation.Sponsored by Saudi Arabia.Leverage against ISIS.

Fighting Assad’s regime.Providing humanitarian services and relief to local communities.Implement strict Sharia law in occupied territories.Fighting ISIS.Closely aligned with Jabhat al-Nusra.

13 Jabhat al-Nusra Abu Mohammad al-Golani

Syria Salafism Fighting to overthrow Assad’s regime, to form a Syrian Islamic Emirate based on strict Sharia implementation.Part of global Al Qaeda network, originated from Al Qaeda in Iraq. Currently has a leadership crisis since Al Qaeda in Iraq attempted to include Jabhat al-Nusra to its organization.Allegiance to Al Qaeda core (Pakistan).Listed as terrorist organization by US government.Many members are veteran of Gulf War II & Iraq Civil War.

Ruthless, highly discipline and experienced in battlefields. The best fighting force among the rebel forces.Launch suicide attacks against Syrian government targets.Implement strict Sharia law in occupied territories.Allegedly receiving much support from Turkish intelligence to fightPKK.

14 Islamic State of Iraq & al-Sham (ISIS)

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

Iraq, Syria Salafism Fighting to carve out an Islamic Emirate based on strict Shariaimplementation, encompassing Iraq & Syria.Part of global Al Qaeda network.Many members are veteran of Gulf War II & Iraq Civil War.Notorious for its brutality.

Sending fighting force to Syria since Jabhat al-Nusra refuse to acknowledge leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Inviting and enforced by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.Brutal campaign against both regime & opposition.Clash with Free Syrian Army and Islamic Front units.Clash with Kurdish fighters.

No Sides Countries / Factions

Leader Location Ideology Positioning Action

15 Pro Rebels

Other foreign fighters

16 Turkey PM Recep TayyipErdogan

Turkey Secular, Sunni dominated

Seeking hegemony in the future (new) Syria.Against Iranian and Russian hegemony.Worry of increasingly independent Syrian Kurdistan which will enforce Turkish Kurdistan and empower PKK.

Cut off ties and friendship with Assad’s government as protest against his treatment to the opposition.Providing arms and humanitarian aid to the opposition.Providing safe haven for the SNC and FSA.Providing refugee camps for civilians.Cease-fire deal with PKK.Covertly support Jabhat al-Nusra to fight PKK.

17 Saudi Arabia King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz

Saudi Arabia

Wahhabism(Sunni) Monarch

Against Iranian and Shi’ite hegemony.Disappointed by US reluctance to intervene militarily.

Providing arms and financial aid to the rebels, mainly to SNC and FSA.Form Islamic Front as a strong leverage after FSA is weakening, as a more radical players but friendly to its interests.Allegedly support Abdullah Azzam Brigade or other Al Qaeda terrorist to terrorize/assassinate Hezbollah and Iranian diplomats.

18 Qatar Emir Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani.Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Qatar ModerateSunni Monarch

Against Iranian hegemony.Competing for influence in the Middle East with Saudi.Tends to gain more leverage to the Sunni hardliners / Salafists.

Providing arms and financial aid to the rebels, mostly Salafists.

Jordan King Abdullah II Jordan ModerateSunni Monarch

Agains Iranian hegemony.Very close relationship with the West.Has to manage its own Arab Spring.

Support the moderate faction of rebels.Providing humanitarian aid to refugees.Exploiting Syrian crisis to distract people from its own Arab Spring.

19 United States President Barack Obama

United States

Secular Against Iranian hegemony.Committed to Israel’s and Saudi’s survival.Hates Islamists, branding Salafists (esp Al Qaeda franchise) as terrorist.Not in appetite to open new frontline in moslem countries.Traumatic with Afganistan mujahideen experience : US provided arms to rebels which ended up in the hand of US enemy (Al Qaeda). Very worry with Jabhat al-Nusra’s rise and popularity.

Providing humanitarian aid and non lethal aid to the SNC and FSA.CIA covertly operate to support FSA, provide military training.President Obama stated that the red line” is the usage of chemical weapon by the Syrian regime. No-fly-zone had never clearly stated as an option.

20 UK, France UK : PM David CameronFrance : President Francois Holland

Europe Secular Against Iranian hegemony.Hates Islamists, branding Salafists (esp Al Qaeda franchise) as terrorist.Eager to enforce no-fly-zone

Covertly aiding rebels, providing the non lethal aid and military training to SNC and FSA.

21 Israel PM Benyamin Netanyahu

Israel Secular, Judaism

Arab Spring overthrew Israel’s ally Mobarak.Prefer Assad’s regime than future government dominated by Moslem Brotherhood or worse the Salafists.Against Iranian hegemony.Concern with every weapon shipment in Syria to Hezbollah.

3x air strike against weapon shipment & storage inside Syria.

Parties Involved – Pro Rebels

Parties Involved –NeutralNo Sides Countries / Factions Leader Location Ideology Positioning Action

22 Neutral Lebanon President Michel Suleiman

Lebanon Secular, multi-religion

Formally neutral, but most of the time the national army clashes with the Sunni extremist.No political power to prevent Hezbollah from getting involved.Traumatic of its own civil war history.Anxious of spillover to within its own border.Armed clashes occurred between Alawites and Sunnis, mostly in Tripoli.Political factions in Lebanon is divided between pro Assad vs pro opposition.

Receiving refugees.

23 Democratic Union Party (PYD)People’s Protection Unit (YPG, militia)

PYD : Salih MuslimYPG : Sipan Hemo

Syrian Kurdistan

Kurdish nationalism, Sunni, socialism

Fighting for Kurdistan autonomy in Syria.Animosity toward KNC.Attempt to make YPG the dominant forces of Kurdistan.Close to PKK.Oppose to SNC delegation to Geneva, hoping to gain more leverage.

Armed clash with both the Syrian government and the opposition,especially Jabhat al Nusra, ISIS, and some FSA units.Clash with KNC militia.

24 Kurdish National Council (KNC)

Feysel Yusuf Syrian Kurdistan

Kurdish nationalism, Sunni, socialism

Fighting for Kurdistan autonomy in Syria.Animosity toward PYD/YPG and PKK.Open to dialog, supports peace process with the SNC.Supported by KRG.

Armed clash with both the Syrian government and the opposition,especially Jabhat al Nusra, ISIS, and some FSA units.Clash with YPG.Join SNC delegation to Geneva.

25 Iraqi KurdistanRegional Government (KRG)

President MassoudBarzani

Iraqi Kurdistan

Kurdish nationalism, Sunni

Supporting Kurdistan autonomy in neighboring countries.Leverage over Kurdish factions, especially KNC.

Negotiating for peace between PYD & KNC and forming KSC.Supporting KNC.Supporting weaponry and logistics.

26 Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK)

Abdullah Ocalan, Cemil Bayik

Turkish Kurdistan

Kurdish nationalism, Sunni

Fighting for Kurdistan autonomy in Turkey. Terror attack in Turkey, later cease fire with Turkey.Supporting YPG.

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/09/06/opinion/barfi-syria-opposition-guide/index.html?c=&page=2http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-non-state-militant-landscape-in-syriahttp://m.lvsun.com/news/2013/sep/12/everything-you-need-know-about-factions-play-syria/http://www.policymic.com/articles/61461/syria-facts-the-complete-guide-to-all-the-global-players-involved-in-the-syrian-conflict

Why not Foreign Interventionlike Libya?

1. Syrian air defense and weaponry is much more advanced compared to Libya. Gaddafi intentionally kept the armed forces weak to prevent coup. Syria bought advanced weaponry from Russia. It is the most SAM-dense country in the world (most

Surface-to-Air-Missile compared to size of territory). Much more risk to NATO aircraft.

2. Syrian opposition is too fractured. Who can the Western countries support? Who has the authority? Who commands the rebel army? FSA doesn’t submit to SNC and many

Islamists don’t respect the secularists. What guarantees that the weaponry supplied will not end up in the hands of those who will use it

against the Western interests?

3. The high level leadership in Assad’s regime is still intact, unlike Gaddafi’s. The fear of Shi’ite / Alawitegenocide by the Sunni gives them stronger reason to persist.

4. Syria has many powerful friends : Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, etc. Gaddafi has none ready or capable to defend him.

The Case Against Intervention in Syria by Fareed Zakaria, published by TIMEhttp://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2116135,00.html

What if the US Intervene Anyway?

1. Iran could block Strait of Hormuz oil price will hike rapidly global economic crises.2. Iran and Syria’s ally in the region could launch strike against Western and Sunni states interests in the

region. Hezbollah could launch rockets to Israel. Sectarian conflict in Lebanon could escalate Lebanon civil war all over again. Iraq could be even more repressive against the Sunnis (even currently Al Qaeda has already been

launching strikes against Iraqi government). Bahraini uprising could escalate. Saudi uprising could escalate.

At least five more Middle Eastern countries will be in escalated conflict.

3. More terrorist attack against the Western interests : not only from the Sunni extremists (like Al Qaeda) but also from the Shi’ite / Iranian proxies.

4. US / NATO intervention would weaken /toppled the Syrian regime but empower the islamists/jihadists/terrorists trauma of the American support to Afghan mujahideens against the Soviet empowered Al Qaeda.

The Chemical Weapon IssueObama’s Red Line

US president Barrack Obama’s hesitation to intervene :No direct US interests.No appetite for another military intervention in the Islamic world/Middle East (US troops had been withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan. Intervention in Libya was minimal.)Low American public support for war.

Pressure from the world :Humanity reason – mounting death toll should move the most powerful country to intervene and stop the civil war.

Pressure from the Middle Eastern allies :Political reason – Prolonged stalemate in the civil war has dangerous impact to the region.Military reason – No military powers in the region have the capability to intervene and block Iranian influence. They rely on the US to tip the balance in their favor.

August 20th 2012 :“The ‘red line’ is the

usage of chemical weapons by the Syrian government. If the red

line is crossed, the US will intervene.”

Obama’s bluff : •Syrian government would NOT cross the

red line.•US still looks tough. Red line is crossed :

August 21st 2013, chemical attack in Ghouta, suburbs of Damascus, killed more than

1000, while the UN investigators were near.

No exact proof of which side was the perpretator.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/obamas-bluffhttp://www.stratfor.com/weekly/obamas-tightrope-walk

The Chemical Weapon IssueUS’ Empty Threat and Russia’s Upperhand

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/syria-america-and-putins-bluffhttp://billmoyers.com/2013/09/05/if-congress-says-no-can-obama-strike/

Obama agreed to Putin’s proposal.

President Barrack Obama started to gather international support for military intervention to Syria.Legally he did not need Congress’ approval.Humanitarian intervention for Kosovo (1998-1999) was set as precedent for Syrian intervention without UN mandate (Russia would veto any deal against Syria).

“Who will join us? Assad should be punish!”

August 29th 2013 : “The House of

Commons don’t let me.”

“I will join you. I don’t need

parliament’s approval.”

(undermining his own threat )The military intervention is to ‘punish’ Assad for using chemical weapon, not to force-change the regime.It will only target military infrastructures, not the chemical weapons themselves.It will last only for a short time.

(Later statement )I would seek Congressional approval, despite legally I don’t need it.

Survey was the majority of American public didn’t approve military intervention.

“Let me take care of this. I will use my influence to the Syrian government to

hand over their chemical weapons to be destroyed under UN-OPCW monitoring.”

No need to go to the risky and unpopular war.If this program fails, Russia will be to blame.

Russia is portrayed as responsible, not only vetoing in the UN but offering the best solution.US is proven not as powerful. Its influence is declining.Russia is proven to hold the ace cards, become the game changer in this conflict.

The Chemical Weapon IssueSome Cartoons

Spillover : LEBANON

Potential Civil WarDemographic :Christians : 41%

The largest sect : Maronite (21%)Moslems : 60%

Shia : 27-29%Sunni : 27-29%Druze : 5%

Arab country with the most religious sects. The ‘artificial’ nation-state is drawn by French colonial empires. Lebanon was used as the safe haven for Maronite Arabs. The relationship between Christians and Moslems, Sunnis and Shi’ites were tense.

Civil War 1975 – 1990 :Fought between Lebanese Christians, Lebanese Sunnis, Lebanese Druze, Lebanese Shi’ites, Palestinians (PLO), Syrian army, and Israeli army.Hezbollah was born as Shi’ite resistance movement against Israel occupation, fully supported by Syrian and Iranian governments.

Current Political System :President should be a Maronite.Prime Minister should be a Sunni moslem.Speaker of the Parliament should be a Shi’ite moslem.Sunni faction are supported by Saudi Arabia.Shi’ite faction are (particularly Hezbollah) are supported by Iran.Hezbollah is the strongest party in the parliament. It has the strongest militia in Lebanon.

The Syrian Civil War Since 2011 :2011-2012 : Alawites (pro Syrian regime) vs Sunni/Salafists (pro Syrian rebels) clashes in Tripoli.Conflict became political : March 8 Alliance (pro Syrian, all Shi’ite factions, supported by Iran) vs March 14 Alliance (anti Syrian, most Sunni factions, supported by

Saudi).More kidnappings, demonstrations and clashes throughout the countries. The Lebanese army suffered some casualties.Assassination (car bomb) of BrigGen. Wissam al-Hassan, the head of Lebanese Intelligence by pro-Syrian/Syrian agent.The Sunni clerics Ahmed al-Assir and his armed followers clashed several times with Hezbollah and the Lebanese army in the city of Sidon.Weapons have been smuggled from Lebanon to the Syrian rebels.Hezbollah sent forces to enforce the Syrian regime.Many Lebanese Sunnis joined the Syrian rebels.Bomb attacks in Hezbollah neighborhood and Sunni Salafist neighborhood. Escalation of conflict in Syria would escalate the sectarian conflict in Lebanon.

Spillover : IRAQ

Demographic :65% Shi’ite vs 35% SunniSizeable population of Sunni Kurds

Pre-2003 American Invation :Saddam Hussein (a Sunni) ruled with Stalinist-single-party (Ba’ath) politics.Arab Sunni was the elite class, holding strategic positions.Following Gulf War in 1991 Shi’ites rebelled and brutally suppressed.

Post-2003 American Invation :Many Shi’ites rejoiced and celebrated the fall of Saddam when the Americans arrived.2005 : national election won by Shi’ites parties. Prime Minister : Nouri al-Maliki (Shi’ite). Maliki’s government is closer to Tehran than Washington.

2006-2008 : civil war broke out between Sunnis and Shi’ites :- Suicide bombing- Death squads- Attacks on place of worships- Sectarian desertions among Iraqi military & policeSince around the US special forces and intelligence approached, persuaded, and financed the Sunni tribes in Anbar provinces to turn against Al Qaeda. Without the

Iraqi government’s consent. (Sunni Awakening)Later al-Maliki would be more prioritizing Shi’ites, leaving the Sunnis irritated leads to more clashes between Sunnis and Shi’ites.

2011 : US forces completely withdrawn from Iraq. The Sunni tribes, not feeling represented enough in the government dominated by Shi’ites, resorted to violence again. Al Qaeda in Iraq and its allies returned and fought against the Iraqi government and the Shi’ites.

2011 : Sectarian war in Syria broke out. Iraqi Sunnis and Shi’ites cross-border to fight for both sidesBomb attacks and assassination Shi’ite vs Sunni.

2013 : ISIS occupied Fallujah and Ramadi in Anbar province, triggering armed conflict between Iraqi army (supported by some Sunni tribes from the Sunni Awakening) and ISIS.

Syrian sectarian conflict in now entangled with Iraqi Sunni vs Shi’ite conflict.

The Long Lasting Conflict

Sunnis Shi’ites

Al Qaeda in Iraq, Islamic State of Iraq, Ansar al-Sunna

Mahdi Army

Ba’ath Party loyalists Badr Brigades, SCIRI

Sunni tribes Soldiers of Heaven (Shi’itedoomsday cult)

Shi’ite tribes

What if Saddam still Ruled in 2011?

If Saddam Hussein still ruled Iraq in 2011 :The Arab Spring would have occurred in Iraq.The Shi’ite-dominated opposition would have committed the revolution to overthrow Saddam.Saddam’s regime would have brutally oppressed the demonstrations.Most likely it would be similar to Syria. The revolution would be explode to civil war.Iran would be involved in reinforcing the opposition (Shi’ites).The Sunni tribes would gather behind the regime.The Saudis and other Sunni monarchs would support Saddam.The US would be caught in a dilemma :

Support the long-time enemy Saddam to prevent the even longer-time enemy Iran, orLet Saddam fall and Iranians hegemony getting stronger in Iraq.

The Arab Spring would be even more interesting.

Are These Mossad Conspiracies?

Issues Israel’s Interests Before Revolution After Revolution Result to Israel

Hamas Keep them under siege and cornered in Gaza

Mubarak’s regime hates Moslem Brotherhood & Hamas, cooperate fully with Israel

Moslem Brotherhood-dominated government surely will be more friendly to Hamas.

Risky

Egypt Keep it committed to the peace deal

Mubarak has no interest to wage war with Israel, no ideological motives

MB-dominated government has history and reasons not to be friendly with Israel.

Risky

Syria Keep it uninterested in regaining Golan heights

Assad’s regime knew Syrianarmy would not win the war against Israel. No military attempts in decades

Not clear who won. If the MB opposition, same as Egypt.And with the Salafists and Al Qaedaoperating uncontrolled by the new government, more risk to Israel.

Hezbollah Keep them unable to launch attack to Israel

Hezbollah is equipped with advanced weaponry supplied by Iran via SyriaIsrael possessed the Iron Dome and Patriot missile to prevent Hezbollah’s rockets

Hezbollah is highly occupied in defending the Syrian regime.Its popularity is decreasing because of the unpopularity of Assad’s regime.

Good

Iran Prevent them from nuclear weapon capability

Not related Not related Not related

Intelligence analysis on the popularity of Israel among the Middle East population should show that it is very low.Disturbing the status quo would be highly risky.

Are These CIA Conspiracies?

Issues American Interests Before Revolution After Revolution Result to US

Egypt Keep the military more powerful than the government,depended on American dollar, uninterested in war against Israel

Status quo friendly to the US Egyptian army proved to be still more powerful than the government

Risky

Syria Keep the status quo uninterested in waging war against Israel and unfriendly to Islamists

Sharing the same hatred against Islamists, Assad’s regime has been working together under cover with CIA against Al Qaeda.

Not clear who won. If the MB opposition, same as Egypt.And with the Salafists and Al Qaedaoperating uncontrolled by the new government, more risk to American interests.

Bahrain Bahraini and the US share the same interest in keeping the Iranians at bay. The monarch hosts US Naval base.

Status quo friendly to the US Revolution failed Good

Yemen Yemeni government should be cooperative with the US to wage war against al Qaeda and Iranian interests

Status quo friendly to the USFull access for American covert operation against al-Houthi and AQAP

The president is changed but the regime is more or less the same

Good

Iran Prevent them from nuclear weapon capability

Not related Not related Not related

Intelligence analysis on the popularity of USA among the Middle East population should show that it is very low.Disturbing the status quo would be highly risky.

Why the Arab Monarchies Survive

Answer : Legitimacy1. Monarchs are identified with their state better than the modern military dictatorship. Monarchs lasted hundred of years.

The Alaouite Dinasty (Morocco) has existed longer than United States. The House of Saud (Saudi Arabia) is the master of the Arabian peninsula for hundred of years. The Hashemite family (Jordania) has direct lineage goes back to the Prophet Muhammad. The Omani Sultan forged the desert interior and the cosmopolitan, Indian ocean seaboard to form the current state of Oman. Qatari and UAE emirs have small population and hydrocarbon riches Bahraini kingdom found trouble because of the majority Shi’ite population.Contrasts to dictators like Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi, Al Assad family, Saddam Hussein, all got power through coup and they

had to use iron fist to maintain power.2. Monarchs delegate the operational governance to cabinets. In case of any protests from the people, blame the cabinet, fire the prime

minister.

3. The current king/emir/sultan does not want to be the last in line. They have the needs to do good works, earn their thrones, humane. More than the iron-fisted military dictatorship.

“Why Mideast Monarchies Survive” by Robert D. Kaplan, Stratforwww.stratfor.com/weekly/why-meadeast-monarchies-survive

The Failure of Arab Spring :The Rise of Al-Qaeda

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/01/al-qaeda-terror-spread-iraq-lebanon.htmlhttp://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/28/world/meast/al-qaeda-growing/index.html?iref=allsearchhttp://m.aljazeera.com/story/201421312828448349http://m.aljazeera.com/story/201421911171268539

The Arab Spring fails to create democratic & reformist government armed conflict and brutal repression by the counterrevolutionary, sectarian nature of the conflict chaos & lawlessness, vacuum of government in rural area, confirmation of radical’s lack of trust of the democratic system Al-Qaeda-inspired jihadists gathering new converts.

Despite being decimated since the Afghan War and Osama bin Laden was assassinated in 2011, Al-Qaeda has inspired many similar movements throughout Middle East and Africa.

Organizations Current Leader Area of Operation Description

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) / Ansar al-Sharia

Nasir al-Wuhayshi Yemen Considered as the most powerful of Al Qaeda’s franchise. Used to lead by American citizen Anwar al-Awlaki.Grabbed a large territory during Yemeni revolution.Targetted by US drone attacks.

Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)

Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud Algeria, Morocco, Sahel, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad

Known as the richest of Al Qaeda franchises, most of the revenue came from the ransom of kidnapping and extortion of humanitarian organizations and Western governments.Grabbed a large territory during Mali’s coup.In Amenas oil refinery hostage crisis in January 2013 by Mokhtar Belmokhtar.Targetted by Operation Serval led by French military.

Ansar al-Sharia Muhammad al-Zahawi Benghazi, Libya Salafist militia formed during Libyan revolution. The goal is to enforce strict Islamic law in Libya.On September 11th 2012 assaulted the American consulate in Benghazi, killing ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and 3 other American citizens.On September 21st its headquarter was stormed by protesters.

Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS)

Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi Iraq, Syria, Lebanon Hailed from Iraq. Notorious for its brutality against Westerners and Shi’ites.One of the most powerful faction in Syrian civil war. Clashed with other Sunni oppositions.Fighting the Shi’ite-dominated government of Iraq.Launching suicide attacks in Hezbollah neighborhood in Lebanon.Disowned by Al-Qaeda core because it defied al-Zawahiri decree to stay in Iraq.

Jabhat al-Nusra Abu Mohammed al-Golani Syria The most effective rebel forces in Syria.Secretly backed by Turkey and others, allied with Western-backed FSA, Saudi-backed Islamic Front, fighting Syrian regime, ISIS and Kurdish opposition.Providing humanitarian services in occupied territories.

Abdullah Azzam Brigade Majid bin Muhammad al-Majid

Lebanon, Syria Has many branches across Middle East and Pakistan.Suicide bombing targeting Hezbollah area and Iranian diplomats in Lebanon.

Ansar Bait al-Maqdis Ibrahim Mohamed Freg Sinai, Egypt Targeting oil pipeline, Egyptian army & police posts, Israeli military, and other civilian targets in Egypt, especially bordering to Israel.

Above list only includes Al-Qaeda-inspired organizations in MENA.Excludes Al-Shabaab (Somalia), Boko Haram (Nigeria) and the now diminishing Al-Qaeda core in Pakistan.

Thank You