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Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenge s and opportunities Georgia-Russia relations: Challenges and opportunities Archil Gegeshidze Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies Tartu, 28 January 2011

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  • Slide 1
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities Georgia-Russia relations: Challenges and opportunities Archil Gegeshidze Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies Tartu, 28 January 2011
  • Slide 2
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 2 Outline of the lecture 1.Evolution of the confrontation 2.Georgias meaning for Russia 3.The August 2008 war: causes and implications 4.Limits to Russian power 5.Bilateral relations: current balance sheet 6.Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia 7.What the future holds?
  • Slide 3
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 3 Evolution of the confrontation Aspects of post-Soviet relationships History Psychology Geopolitics The Putin (Medvedev) factor
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  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 4 Georgias meaning for Russia Georgia serves as kind of a valve that, if under control, allows Russia to prevent penetration of Turkish influence into the North Caucasus, as well as further to the East into the Central Asia.
  • Slide 5
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 5 Georgias meaning for Russia Control over Georgia provides for Russia a leverage to rule out any possibility of future NATO expansion from Turkey into the Caspian.
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  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 6 Georgias meaning for Russia Control over Georgia would allow Russia to obstruct the progress of the East-West energy corridor, as well as to hinder the penetration into the Caspian of western investment.
  • Slide 7
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 7 Georgias meaning for Russia Control over Georgia would ease the task for Russia to prevent increasingly disobedient national republics in the North Caucasus from falling out of jurisdiction of the Federal Government. DISINTEGRATION
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  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 8 Georgias meaning for Russia Sevastopol Batumi ? ? 475 km 2935 km of coastline under Soviet control
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  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 9 Georgias meaning for Russia 220 km
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  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 10 Georgias meaning for Russia Russias fears if Georgia succeeds Separatist movement will intensify in the North Caucasus A precedent of providing conditions for swift development under Western security guarantees will arise in the CIS space, including the South Caucasus, which will further shake Russias already shaken authority and influence The strengthening of Georgia-US security co- operation and Georgias accession to NATO will further enhance US influence in the South Caucasus which might proliferate throughout the CIS and elsewhere in Eurasia
  • Slide 11
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 11 Georgias meaning for Russia Russias fears if Georgia succeeds US military bases and NATO anti-missile systems may be deployed in Georgia as it is likely to happen in some Eastern European countries The transit attractiveness of Georgia and the whole of the South Caucasus will be increased in regards to transportation of Caspian energy to Western markets thereby to a certain extent lessening Europes energy dependence on Russia.
  • Slide 12
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 12 The August 2008 war: Causes and implications Dimensions of conflict Georgian-Abkhaz / Georgian-Ossetian confrontation Georgian-Russian confrontation Russia-West standoff
  • Slide 13
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 13 The August 2008 war: Causes and implications Immediate causes Russian trap Georgias blunders Stubbornness of the de facto administrations in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali Idleness of the West
  • Slide 14
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 14 The August 2008 war: Causes and implications Implications Territorial reunification indefinitely postponed Abkhazias and South Ossetias independence recognized by Russia Rapidly increasing Russian influence in the occupied territories Georgian territories occupied NATO accession tabled off
  • Slide 15
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 15 Limits to Russian power Decline in Russian growth Source: Russian Analytical Digest, #88, p. 4
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  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 16 Limits to Russian power
  • Slide 17
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 17 Limits to Russian power Russia in international comparison: R&D expenditure as % of GDP (2005-2007) Source: Russian Analytical Digest, #88, 29 November 2010
  • Slide 18
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 18 Limits to Russian power Gross domestic expenditure on R&D (%GDP) and number of researchers (Thsd.) (1990-2009) Source: Russian Analytical Digest, #88, 29 November 2010
  • Slide 19
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 19 Limits to Russian power Russias demographic map
  • Slide 20
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 20 Limits to Russian power Average monthly per capita income, Russian federal districts 2009
  • Slide 21
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 21 Limits to Russian power Explosive North Caucasus
  • Slide 22
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 22 Limits to Russian power Military maladies Ageing equipment Declining number of conscripts Poor health and education of potential conscripts Corruption, crime and casualties in peacetime military Lack of consensus on the proper military doctrine Financial crisis
  • Slide 23
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 23 Limits to Russian power Russia-West Reset
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  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 24 Limits to Russian power U.S. assistance to Georgia 2006-2011
  • Slide 25
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 25 Georgia-Russia: Balance sheet Liabilities: Incompatibility of national projects; Status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, New Status Quo; Broken intergovernmental instruments/channels of dialogue; Absence of the willingness to restore these mechanisms mainly on Russian side.
  • Slide 26
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 26 Georgia-Russia: Balance sheet Assets: Absence of phobia between the peoples (Georgian diaspora in Russia); Huge potential of mutually beneficial economic co-operation; Two Churches willing to contribute; Readiness of international community to facilitate this dialogue.
  • Slide 27
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 27 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia
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  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 28 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia
  • Slide 29
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 29 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia
  • Slide 30
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 30 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia
  • Slide 31
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 31 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia Would you approve or disapprove marrying the following nationality?
  • Slide 32
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 32 Attitudes in Georgia toward Russia Respondents foreign language teaching preference in secondary schools
  • Slide 33
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 33 What future holds? Happenings for the foreseeable future Possible: Establishment of the dialogue on the civil society level; Russia realizing part of its soft power such as visa facilitation/lifting embargo/restoration of transport links. Russia meeting some of the Sarkozy-Medvedev Plan commitments; Georgia signing Agreement on non-resumption of hostilities; IDPs returned to Akhalgori and Kodori
  • Slide 34
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 34 What future holds? Happenings for the foreseeable future Possible / unlikely: Restoration of diplomatic relations Establishment of direct/uncontrolled talks between the GoG and the de facto administrations;
  • Slide 35
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 35 What future holds? Happenings for the foreseeable future Impossible: Reversal of New Status Quo; Georgia recognizing independence of Abkhazia/South Ossetia; Georgia abandoning pro-Western orientation
  • Slide 36
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 36 What future holds? Impossible: Reversal of New Status Quo; Georgia recognizing independence of Abkhazia/South Ossetia; Georgia abandoning pro-Western orientation (the war didnt change public attitudes)
  • Slide 37
  • Archil Gegeshidze Tartu, 28 January 2011 Georgia-Russia: Challenges and opportunities 37 What future holds? Bottomline National projects remain incompatible, i.e. source of confrontation will remain Strategic patience Search for modus vivendi
  • Slide 38
  • END OF THE PRESENTATION THANK YOU ARCHIL GEGESHIDZE Senior fellow, GFSIS 3a, Chitadze St., Tbilisi 0108 Georgia [email protected]