ARE WE AT A TIPPING POINT:

The Status and Direction of Education in Utah

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Dr. Richard E. KendellUtah Education Policy Center

April 14, 2010

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The New Yorker, March 22, 2010

Utah Public School Enrollment

2004-05 – 2010-11Annual Change

Total Enrollment

% Change

2004-05 8,744 495,685 1.8%

2005-06 14,330 510,012 2.9%

2006-07 15,648 525,660 3.1%

2007-08 13,650 537,653 2.6%

2008-09 13,360 551,013 2.5%

2009-10 12,260 563,273 2.2%

2010-11 Projected

11,044 574,317 2.0%

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USOE Annual Superintended reports

Utah System of Higher Education Historical Fall Enrollments

Historical Fall 3rd Week Headcounts  2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10

UU 30,558 30,511 29,797 30,228 31,407USU 23,107 23,623 24,421 23,925 25,065WSU 18,334 18,642 18,306 21,674 23,331SUU 6,859 7,029 7,057 7,516 8,066

SNOW 4,113 4,179 3,745 3,798 4,368DSC 9,114 5,967 5,944 6,443 7,911CEU 2,179 2,220 2,078 2,082 2,173

UVSC 24,487 23,305 23,840 26,696 28,765SLCC 25,551 25,159 25,144 29,867 33,776

Total 144,302 140,635 140,332 152,229 164,862

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Utah System of Higher Education 2010 Tab C: Executive Summary

Utah System of Higher Education System Total Projections

Fall Headcounts

 

Actual Fall Head

countProjected 2011-12

Projected 2016-17

Projected 2020-21

Total % Change

UU 31,407 32,785 34,379 35,228 12.2%USU 25,065 27,040 28,731 29,454 17.5%WSU 23,331 21,430 22,729 23,278 -0.2%SUU 8,066 7,583 8,957 10,142 25.7%

SNOW 4,368 4,720 5.124 5,701 30.5%DSC 7,911 8,366 9,680 10,969 38.7%CEU 2,173 2,359 2,352 2,445 12.5%

UVSC 28,765 31,305 35,717 38,349 33.3%SLCC 33,776 29,203 34,759 39,553 17.1%

Total 164,862 164,792 182,458 195,120 18.4%

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Utah System of Higher Education 2010 Tab C: Table 11

Demographic Trends

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Source: "Utah’s Demographic Transformation: A View into the Future” Pamela S. Perlich, Senior Research Economist . Volume 68, Number 3

Lack of Completion

Total White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander

American Indian/

Alaska Na-tive

0102030405060708090

100

87.7

89.9

83.2

56.5

79.9 6

8.7

80.4

83.6 7

2.3

52.4

80.4 7

0.9

26.1

27.1 19.8 9

.8

36.4

9.1

24.4

26.1 1

4.3

10.4

44.1

11.5

UT - % With High School Diploma or HigherUS - % With High School Diploma or HigherUT - % With Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Source: Bureau of the Census, 2000 (updated 2003)

Highest Level of Educational Attainment,Age 25+, by Race/Ethnicity

A Changing WorkforceThe projected percentage employment growth in the U.S. from

2004 to 2014 by level of education required

Short-Term OJT (No Formal Award)Moderate-Term OJT

(No Formal Award)Long-Term OJT (No Formal Award)Work Experience in

Related Occupation (No Formal Award)Postsecondary Voc.

AwardAssociate's Degree

Bachelor's DegreePostsecondary + Work ExperienceMaster's Degree

Doctorate Degree

Professional Degree

0 7 14 21 28 35

11.4%

8.5

8.7

9.6

17.7

25.1

19.6

16.6

18.8

30.8

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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics

A Changing Workforce

More than 2/3 of new jobs require some postsecondary education

37%

22%

10%31%

No High SchoolHigh School DiplomaSome PostsecondaryBachelor's Degree

Source: Carnevale, Anthony P., & Desrochers, Donna M., Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-16 Reform, Educational Testing Service, 2003.

Utah’s Top 25 Five Star Jobs:2006-2016 Annual Openings

Occupation Growth Replacements

Total

Management 570 640 1210

Business/Finance 160 140 300

Computer/Math 475 290 765

Architecture/Engineers 270 180 450

Education/Training 90 40 130

Healthcare/Technical 850 360 1210

Sales/Related 750 550 1300

Construction 870 550 1420

Installation/Maintenance and Repair

100 50 150

Total 4135 2800 693510

New England 2020June 2006

“It is not an understatement then to suggest that our future hinges on whether thousands of young people will launch their educations, their graduate studies and their careers here in New England. Understanding the importance of college students as a wellspring of our population growth compels us to expand our conception of higher education institutions, recognizing them not only as sources of innovation, but as the remedy for our workforce woes, and ultimately, as the region’s best insurance policy against economic stasis and decline.”

Utah Achievement

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Grade

Year

Utah Avg.

National Public Avg.

Pct.At or above Basic

Pct.At or Above Proficient

Pct.At Advanced

Reading

4 2009

219 220 67 31 6

Reading

4 2007

221 220 69 34 8

Reading

8 2009

266 262 75 33 2

Reading

8 2007

262 261 75 30 2

NAEP: Common core of Data, 2007-2008 School Year.

Utah Achievement

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Grade

Year

Utah Avg.

National Public Avg.

Pct.At or above Basic

Pct.At or Above Proficient

Pct.At Advanced

Math 4 2009

240 239 81 41 6

Math 4 2007

239 239 83 39 4

Math 8 2009

284 282 75 35 7

Math 8 2007

281 280 72 31 6

NAEP: Common core of Data, 2007-2008 School Year.

Utah ACT Scores:% of students ready for college-level

course work

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Nation 2009

Utah 2009 Nation 2005-2009 Changes

Utah 2005-2009 Changes

Number of Students Tested

148,0469 23,229 45%Of 2009

Graduates tested

68%Of 2009

Graduates tested

All 4 Scores 23 25 +2 +2

English 67 73 -1 0

Math 42 44 +1 +1

Reading 53 62 +2 +4

Science 28 32 +2 +2

ACT: National and State Scores for 2009

AN EDUCATION PLAN FOR UTAH

A TIPPING POINT ? 

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ELEMENTARY GRADES

PRE-SCHOOL PROGRAMS FULL-DAY KINDERGARTEN BETTER ASSESSMENTS FOR MATH

AND READING K-6– K-3 LITERACY PROGRAM– K-6 MATH AND READING

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SECONDARY GRADES

STATEWIDE ADOPTION OF ACT EXAMS– EXPLORE 8TH GRADE– PLAN 10TH GRADE– ACT 11TH GRADE

CLEAR ACADEMIC STANDARDS IN CORE SUBJECTS

INCREASE COMPLETION RATES PREPARE ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE

AND THE WORKPLACE

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HIGHER EDUCATION IMPROVE RETENTION AND GRADUATION RATES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES

– USTAR– CLUSTER ACCELERATION– CAREER PATHWAY INITIATIVES

FIANCIAL AID REFORM– NEED BASED AID– FUNDING FOR ACADEMIC INCENTIVE AWARDS

NEW CENTURY SCHOLARSHIPS REGENT SCHOLARSHIPS

MATH AND SCIENCE PROGRAMS AVAILABLE YEAR ROUND K-20

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“ THEREFORE, THE COUNTRY THAT USES THIS CRISIS [THE GREAT RECESSION] TO MAKE ITS

POPULATION SMARTER AND MORE INNNOVATIVE – AND ENDOWS ITS PEOPLE WITH MORE TOOLS AND

BASIC RESEARCH TO INVENT NEW GOODS AND SERVICES – IS THE ONE THAT WILL NOT JUST

SURVIVE BUT THRIVE DOWN THE ROAD. WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO STIMULATE OUR WAY BACK TO

STABILITY, BUT WE CAN ONLY INVENT OUR WAY BACK TO PROSPERITY. WE NEED EVERYONE AT

EVERY LEVEL TO GET SMARTER. “ TOM FRIEDMAN “ INVENT, INVENT, INVENT” New York Times, June

28, 2009

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The Importance of Voice

When I travel around the country, meeting with students, business people, and others interested in the economy, I am occasionally asked for investment advice. Usually (though not always) the question is posed in jest. No one really expects me to tell them which three stocks they should buy. However, I know the answer to the question and I will share it with you today: Education is the best investment.

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The Importance of Voice

You are moving into the most competitive age the world has ever known. All around you is competition. You need all the education you can get. Sacrifice a car; sacrifice anything that is needed to be sacrificed to qualify yourselves to do the work of the world. That world will in large measure pay you what it thinks you are worth, and your worth will increase as you gain education and proficiency in your chosen field.

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The Importance of Voice

I hope you don’t mind – I want to go into a little detail here about education. In the 21st century – when so many jobs will require a bachelor’s degree or more, when countries that out-educate us today will out-compete us tomorrow – a world-class education is a prerequisite for success.

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Utah Education Policy Center

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Bridging Research, Policy, and Practice1705 Campus Center Drive, Rm 339

Salt Lake City, Utah 84112581-3383 / 585-5566

http://uepc.ed.utah.edu/