are we working towards the world we want agroforestry - ravi prabhu - icraf

57th Board of Trustees MeetingApril 29-May 3 2013

Are we working towards the world we want?

Overview statement on IDOs, SDs and CRPs


Overview: unfinished business!

We have fairly clear guidance from CO & ISPC on the frameworkThe system level IDOs are still a work in progress (especially recent ISPC paper)The CRP IDOs are also a work in progressCRP 6 forest/tree transition curve is not a theory of change – we need more thoughtICRAF is heading in the right direction to respond, but we aren’t there yet Skip the middle


Rijsberman 2012, modified


Aren’t we missing something?


Obersteiner, CSA Conference Davis


Production driven perspectives

Rijsberman 2012, modified


??

High input agriculture High outputs.What costs?

Achim Dobermann, modified


A simple input-output lens

Input Low High

Output Low Extractive Degrading?

High Utopic? Industrial


HIGH-LEVEL CONSULTATION ON HUNGER, FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE POST- 2015 DEVELOPMENT AGENDA

“…reducing global waste by half would mean radical progress on hunger and malnutrition in the most vulnerable populations.” “…support the use of a wider variety of crops to help feed the world, … of the thousands of cultivatable crops that exist, only seven provide 90% of the world’s food production.”


Finding the diversity dividend

Jackson et al. 2013


Cheap and abundant energy presently drives everything, when that goes we will face a decline

Energy


Expanding our input-output lens

Input Soil Land Energy Water Ecosystem Species

Processing / Knowledge, attitude, skills, behaviour, organizations, governance

Conversion Efficiency, trade-offs, resilience, markets, value chains, etc.

Output Food & Nutrition Wealth, equity O.Ecosystem Services

Waste

Hypothesis: without a systems frame, even a simple one like the one here, it is not possible to orient our research towards the world we want.The SLIDOs, CRP IDOs, Research Outcomes and Centre Strategies must embrace this

Climate, Population


Good governance

Carlos Manuel Rodríguez Nagoya COP 10 REDD+ Hour


Perceptions matter

In California’s Central Valley:“…mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.”

Haden et al


… and so does Power


Big Six58% of proprietary seed market$50 billion sales annually, $4.7b R&D

Shand 2012


Top Ten28% of global food market

Mulle & Rupanne 2010


Discourses, partnerships

??


Simplicity and complexity

Human progress has been predicated on reductionism – making things as simple as possible and then improving them. Agriculture exemplifies thisComplexity, especially dynamic adaptive complexity must be harnessed if we are to deal with wicked problems


What research investments will have most development

impact?• Which interventions will reduce risk,

increase security, and improve lives the most?

• How to measure and monitor development outcomes?

• What are the trade-offs between agricultural productivity and the environment?

• What are the risks of intervention failure?

• What is high value information? for improving intervention decisions?

Keith Shepherd – value of information


ICRAF’s Science Domains

Input Soil Land Energy Water Ecosystem Species

Processing / Knowledge, attitude, skills, behaviour, organizations, governance

Conversion Efficiency, trade-offs, resilience, markets, value chains, etc.

Output Food & Nutrition Wealth, equity O.Ecosystem Services

Waste

“Waste” incl. externalities with regard to natural capital

Forests, Trees & Agroforestry IDOs

Resilience to environmental and economic variability, shocks and longer term changes of rural communities enhancedthrough greater adaptive capacity to manage forests, trees and agroforestry

Income from products and environmental services derived forests, trees and agroforestry systems enhanced

Local institutions strengthened and collective action enhanced for improved agricultural and natural resources management

Productivity, production and availability of foods and fuel from forests and agroforestry systems increased for poor rural people

Policies supporting sustainable and equitable management of forests and trees developed and adopted by conservation and development organizations, national governments and

international bodies.

Forests, land and water resources and biodiversity protected and improved and net carbon sequestration increased in key target countries

C sequestration increased and greenhouse gas reduced through improved agriculture and natural resources management

Greater gender equity in decision making and control over forest and tree use, management and benefits are improved through women’s empowerment

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I don’t

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Logic models

Consist of a listing ofOutputs: the product from activity delivered, e.g. how many people received trainingOutcomes: the change that occurs as a result of the activity within the lifetime of the programme, until recently also called variously objective or purpose, e.g. farmers are able to use new technology to grow cropsImpacts: what will the end result be in the wider context, e.g. farmers use new technology to increasing productivity in crop growing, also called goalIn its classic form the logical model does not provide insight into causality, that is, why a given output would lead to a given outcome and, in turn, a given impactISPC ToC paper


CRP6 IDO’s

.

1. Reducing rural poverty

2. Improving food security

3. Improving nutrition & health

4. Sustainably managing natural resources

System-level development outcomes .

Decrease in and recovery from

resource degradation

Co-investments in maintaining/enhancing ES

Increased efficiency in the use & conservationof natural resources

System level impact targets (“SLO’s”)

Functional tradeoff management and

governance systems

Resilient and adaptive rural – urban livelihood

systems

Human well-

being linked to T forests, trees &

agroforestry

.

Functional tree co-ver tran-sitions

.

Tradeoff management

capacity

.

Increased socio-

economic benefits

Reduced livelihood

vulnerability & risk

Enhanced benefits for women ++*

Reduced deforestation & ES degra-

dation

Increased net carbon storage

Increased sustainable use & con-servation

Text to be updated…1. Enhance contribution of forests, trees and agroforestry to income, food security and nutrition 2. Forest and tree resources are conserved and used more sustainably, to enhance current and future options3. Maintain or enhance ecosystem services from landscapes with forests, trees and agroforestry4. Increase socio-ecological resilience and adaptive capacity of local livelihoods 5. Reduce emissions of GHG and increase C stocks 6. Policies and markets favor investments that support sustainable natural resource management7. Women are better empowered and gender equality in decision making and control over resource use, management and benefits is improved

1 2

34 56

7

CRP6 metrics CRP6 metrics

Meine vN 2012

Beyond the tree transition curve

Urb

an tr

ough

Embrace complexity through a systems perspectiveTake multiple scales, diversity and fine scale variation into account

Research outcomes: Knowledge, understanding, evidence, skills and capabilities about how to manipulate the nature of tree cover, species and products for multiple benefits in agricultural landscapes

IDOs: Attitudinal, behaviour, efficiency change among key partners & stakeholders

GDP


Step 2+3

Step 1

Yield Gap

After Roger Leakey’s work

Diversity dividend can be achieved through addition of structure, life form, spp.

Concept of sustainable intensification must include all dimensions of diversity and respond to fine scale variation at nested scales


ICRAF’s Science Domains

Coherent, impact-oriented research agenda to champion the role of trees in transforming lives and landscapesProvide gender and socially differentiated answers to complex problems across different agro-ecologies, sectors and political spheres• Systems approach• Nested spatial and temporal scales• Roles and operational goals clearly defined• Will map to IDOs … once we know which ones


Roles: information, evidence, practice

ICRAF’s six roles help deliver:Synoptic information• Complex systems require an integration of information• Seeing is believing!

Hard evidence• Rigorous, science to reduce ambiguity and controversy• Timely evidence to guide decision making

Good practice• Emergent interactions of good practices at nested scales is

what we are seeking


Conclusions

Many of the elements needed are in place Our strategy is positioning us to respond well, (implicitly) embodies theory of change• Need more attention to water, economic and social

dimensions• Need more inter-connection among our research

outcomes• Need to stipulate better their conditions for success at

investment scales

Need better (definitional) clarity from ISPC and CO


Thank you!

MvN 2013


Bonus slides


Research Outputs to Global Development GoalsMDGs - SDGs

12-18 years CGIAR SLOs CRP goals

Common IDOs+ Target statements+ Theory of Change

CRP-specific IDOs+ Target statements+ Theory of Change

9-12 years

CRP Impact Pathway #1

ToC1; Δ behaviour direct benefit 3-yr milestones

0-12 years

CRP Activities + Outputs (research, capacity building, engagement)

0-12 years

CRP Impact Pathway #2

ToC2; Δ behaviour direct benefit 3-yr milestones

CRP Impact Pathway

ToC; Enabling Environment

3-yr milestones

Tom Randolph25/4/2013


ISPC on Theories of Change

Incorporating non-linearity to research planningEmbedding learning mechanisms about research uptake and impact into the research processRegular review and updating of the TOCsAssessing counterfactuals on the impact stream by monitoringDeveloping a communication strategy for discourse and engagement with stakeholdersDirecting the research benefits to those intended, including women.


Where are we with CRPs?

Currently represent to a considerable extent, on-going research bound by contractual agreements brought together under common umbrellaThey need to transition towards a more coherent and focused program building around the components that most clearly targeted the System Level Outcomes


ISPC guidance on IDOs


Tenure effects can over ride other drivers …..

Impact Unadj Freehold TenureEffect

Net Returns to Land ($ ha-1 y-1) $198 $397 2.0

Tree Crops (ha km2) 2.3 12.9 5.6

Plantations and Woodlots (ha km2) 3.1 12.7 4.1

Hedgerows (km km-2) 5.2 23.6 4.5

Norton-Griffith, in preparation


Science Domains in Research Division with CRP 6 (showing 6.1&6.3 especially)

Forests, Trees & Agroforestry themes

Smallholder production

systems and markets

Management and

conservation of forests and

trees

Landscape management

Climate change

adaptation and

mitigation

Impacts of trade and

investment

Intermediate Development Outcomes (IDOs)

System Level Outcomes (SLOs)

Theme 1 Theme 2 Theme 3 Theme 4 Theme 5

Cross-cutting themes:Gender

Communications Sentinel Landscapes

Monitoring, Evaluation and Impact Assessment


Why do we have (SL)IDOs?

To connect between the CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs) and the high level SLO objectives• At the System-level there should be agreement on a

prioritized set of IDOs that are logically linked to the SLOs

• CRP-level IDOs are expected to correspond with the System-level IDOs and to be supported by carefully constructed impact pathways

• theory or theories of change describe the assumptions underlying the impact pathways


To meet the biofuel demand in 2050, land used for biofuel production would increase from 30 to around 100 Mha in 2050 (IEA, 2011) •Global land potentially available for bioenergy crop production in 2050 is 440 Mha (Doornbosch and Steenblik, 2007) •Not included in these figures are 4,200 Mha of saline areas and other land unsuitable for rainfed cultivation. •Major potential for expansion: Africa and Latin America


Getting the hierarchy right

Global goals: SDGs, UNFCCC, CBD (Aichi Targets), UNCCD, Global CompactCGIAR SLIDOs = CRP IDOs – common sets?CRP IDOsCRP & ICRAF Research Outcomes


“…building blocks for change are cross-sectoral, complementary and synergistic, and that no one-size-fits all solution exists.” sustainable and resilient food production and consumption requiring improved access to more nutritious diets, Improved local food availability, efficient food distribution systems, and reduced waste and loss; overcoming challenges of over- and under-nutrition to provide “good” nutrition for all, access to safe drinking water, hygiene and sanitation, and education;agents for transformation, including small producers, family farmers, indigenous peoples and consumers at all levels; anddeveloping catalytic steps, including gender-equal investments,and guarantees for small farmer investment opportunities and market access.



Agricultural land use: food/non-food

Foley et al.


Enhancing the management and use of forests, agroforestry and tree genetic resources across the landscape from forests to farms

CRP 6 FTA

of Global Forest Cover46% 1.3 Billion ha of closed forests

500 Million ha of open and fragmented forests

500 millionpeople living in or close to forests


The apparent challenge

SD >>


SD >> e<<d

The real challenge?


What other guidance are we getting?

UNDG initiated 11 multi-stakeholder thematic consultations on: hunger, nutrition and food security; energy; addressing inequalities; governance; health;population dynamics; conflict, violence and disasters;education; environmental sustainability; and water, including on water resources management, wastewater management, and water quality


Framework to guide actions on FS & N

increasing agricultural resilience to climate change and economic shocks; promoting good governance, reducing inequality and emphasizing rights-based approaches;accelerating progress in eradicating hunger and malnutrition,with an explicit emphasis on gender equality; and Integrating food-based responses with public health interventions at all levels


“… any goal should deal with food security and nutrition not separately but together, as the former is about quantity and the latter about quality.”


are we working towards the world we want agroforestry - ravi prabhu - icraf

Technology

fine scale variation

governance conversion efficiency

output food

research outcomes

food security

decision making

level consultation

57th board