are you here today? 20 1.yes 2.no. chapter 4: a first look at macroeconomics origins and issues of...
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Are you here today?
yes
no
50%50%
20
1. yes
2. no
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Chapter 4: A First Look at Macroeconomics
Origins and issues of macroeconomics
Economic growth
Unemployment & inflation
Government budget surpluses/deficits
International trade surpluses and deficits
Macroeconomic policy challenges and tools
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Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics
Economists began to study economic growth, inflation, and international payments during the 1750s.
Modern macro dates from the Great Depression, a decade (1929-1939) of high unemployment and stagnant production throughout the world economy.
John Maynard Keynes’ book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, began the subject.
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Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics
Short-Term Versus Long-Term Goals
Keynes focused on the short-term
on unemployment and lost production.
“In the long run, we’re all dead.”
During the 1970s and 1980s, macroeconomists became more concerned about long-term—inflation and economic growth.
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Economic Growth and Fluctuations
Economic growth
•expansion of the economy’s production possibilities• outward shifting Production possibilities frontier (PPF).• results from more resources (land, labor, capital) or improved technology
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
•total market value of all the goods and services produced by domestically located factors of producing during a year, measured using a fixed prices.• inflation alone does not cause an increase in real GDP
Economic Growth is measured by growth in Real GDP
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Economic Growth and Fluctuations
•Potential GDP is GDP if economy operates at “full employment”
•Real GDP<Potential GDP below full employment
• A recession occurs when real GDP declines.
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Economic Growth and Fluctuations
Business cycles:
• Fluctuations of real GDP around potential• 2 stages
1. A recession: real GDP declining2. An expansion: real GDP rising
• 2 turning points1. Peak2. Trough
Business cycle dates officially determined by NBER
http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
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Economic Growth and Fluctuations: 1866-2006
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Economic Growth and Fluctuations: 1980-2008
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Economic Growth and Fluctuations
How costly are the growth slowdown and the lost output over the business cycle?
To answer that question we measure:
The Lucas wedge
The Okun gap
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The Cost of a Productivity Slowdown
The Lucas Wedgeaccumulated loss of output from the productivity growth slowdown of the 1970s
Productivity=RGDP/labor hours
(4.3 percent from 1960s versus actual growth realized).
$72 trillion or 6.5 times the real GDP in 2005.
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The Cost of a Recessions
The Okun GapReal GDP minus potential GDP is the output gap (Okun gap)
Okun gap from recessions since 1973 is $3.3 trillion or about 30 percent of real GDP in 2005.
Pain of an Okun gap not equally distributed across society.
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A larger Okun gap would be caused by ___ . A larger Lucas wedge would be caused by ______:
A longer r
eces..
.
A shorte
r rec..
.
Slower p
roduct.
..
None of t
he ab...
25% 25%25%25%
20
1. A longer recession; slower productivity growth
2. A shorter recession; slower productivity growth
3. Slower productivity growth; longer recession
4. None of the above.
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Determinants of Economic Growth
Rate of growth in resources (land, labor, capital)–Tax policy–Social Insurance programs–Immigration–Environmental regulations–Government spending –Technological change–Education policy
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Which tax would be likely to lead to greater economic growth?
A tax re
bate t...
A tax cr
edit t..
.
50%50%
20
1. A tax rebate to households.
2. A tax credit to business subsidizing the purchase of new capital.
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Stricter environmental regulations would likely lead to _____ economic growth.
incre
ased
decrease
d
50%50%
20
1. increased
2. decreased
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More generous unemployment insurance benefits would likely lead to ____ economic growth
incre
ased
decrease
d
50%50%
20
1. increased
2. decreased
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More immigration would lead to ____ economic growth
faste
r
slower
50%50%
20
1. faster
2. slower
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Jobs and Unemployment
JobsIn 2008, 145.3 million people in the United States had jobs.
This number is 18 million more than in 1996 and 35 million more than in 1986.
But the pace of job creation fluctuates.
During a recession, the number of jobs shrinks.
19901991 recession: >1 million jobs lost
2001 recession, 2 million jobs lost
2008 recession: 2 million jobs lost in 4th quarter, how many more??
.
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Jobs and Unemployment
Unemployment
On an average day in a normal year, 7 million people in the U.S. are unemployed (not employed, but searching for a job).
Labor force statistics:
Civilian Labor force = employed + unemployed (excludes military)
Unemployment rate = unemployed/Civilian labor force
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Jobs and Unemployment
The unemployment rate is not a perfect measure of the underutilization of labor. For two reasons:
The unemployment rate
1. Excludes discouraged workers.
• Workers who are discouraged about job prospects and quit searching.
2. Excludes “under-employment”
–part-time workers who want full-time jobs.
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Jobs and Unemployment
During the 1930s, the unemployment rate hit 25 percent.
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Jobs and Unemployment
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Inflation
We measure the price level as the average of the prices that people pay for all the goods and services that they buy.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a common measure of the price level.
Inflation rate:percentage change in the price level.
Inflation occurs when the price level is rising persistently.
Deflation occurs when inflation is negative and prices are falling.
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Inflation
Hyperinflation
The most serious type of inflation is hyperinflation -- an inflation rate that exceeds 50 percent a month.
Why Inflation is a Problem
Inflation is a problem for many reasons, but the main one is that once it takes hold, it is unpredictable.
Unpredictable inflation is a problem because it
Redistributes income and wealth
Borrowers and lendersTaxes
Diverts resources from production toward forecasting inflation & contracts to deal with inflation
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If inflation is higher than borrowers and lenders expected, borrowers will ____ and lenders will _____.
Win; lo
se
Win; w
in
Lose
; win
Lose
; lose
25% 25%25%25%
20
1. Win; lose
2. Win; win
3. Lose; win
4. Lose; lose
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Value of the dollar
The Value of the Dollar
in terms of other currencies is called the exchange rate —a measure of how much your dollar will buy in other parts of the world.
An example is the number of pesos that 1 U.S. dollar will buy (pesos/dollar)
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Value of the dollar
Depreciation
value of the dollar decreases relative to other currencies.
Appreciation
Value of the dollar increasesincreases relative to other currencies.
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A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the country of issue. Major currencies index includes the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden.
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Value of the Dollar
Why the Exchange Rate MattersWhen the U.S. dollar appreciates,
U.S. consumers pay less for imported goods more imports and less demand for domestic goods.
Foreign consumers pay more for U.S. exports fewer exports and less demand for domestic goods.
When the U.S. dollar depreciates, the opposite occurs.
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When the dollar appreciates relative to other currencies, the cost of U.S. exports to other countries ______ and the cost of U.S. imports from other countries _____.
Rises;
rises.
Rises;
falls.
Falls
; falls
.
Falls
; rise
s.
25% 25%25%25%
20
1. Rises; rises.
2. Rises; falls.
3. Falls; falls.
4. Falls; rises.
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Government Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts
Government Budget Balance
If a government collects more in taxes than it spends, it has a government budget surplus.
If a government spends more than it collects in taxes, it has a government budget deficit.
Deficits Bring Debts
A debt is the amount that is owed.
When a government or a nation has a deficit, its debt grows.
A government’s or a nation’s debt equals the sum of all past deficits minus past surpluses.
A government’s debt is called national debt.
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If the U.S. debt grows from 2008 to 2009, the government must have experienced a budget deficit.
True
False
50%50%
1. True
2. False
20
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Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts
The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP increases in recessions and shrinks in expansions
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Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts
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Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts
During the 1980s expansion, a large deficit appeared but it almost disappeared during the 1990–1991 recession.
The current account deficit in 2005 was 6.3 percent of GDP.
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International Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts
International Surplus and Deficit
Trade surplus: imports > exports
Trade deficit: exports> imports
The balance on the current account equals U.S. exports minus U.S. imports but adds interest received and substracts interest paid to rest of the world.
Current account surplus: net lender to rest of world
Curernt account deficit: net borrower from rest of world
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International Surpluses, Deficits, and Debts
Until 1986, the United States was a net lender to the world.
But with increased deficits, the United States is now a net borrower from the world.
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U.S. borrowing from the rest of the world rises as imports ____ or exports _____.
Rise; r
ise
Rise; fa
ll
Fall;
fall
Fall;
rise
25% 25%25%25%
20
1. Rise; rise
2. Rise; fall
3. Fall; fall
4. Fall; rise
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Macroeconomic Policy Challenges and Tools
Two broad groups of macroeconomic policy tools are
Fiscal policy
changes in tax rates and government spending
Conducted by government
Monetary policy
changing interest rates and the amount of money in the economy
Conducted by Federal Reserve