areva, business & strategy overview - april 2009 - appendix1
DESCRIPTION
AREVA, business & strategy overview - April 2009 - Appendix1TRANSCRIPT
Appendix 1Nuclear: a critical part of the solution
> Overview – April 20093
Worldwide demand for electricityto double by 2030
Sources: World Energy Association (March 2009), IEA-World Energy Outlook (2008)
� Capex in the Power sector expected to reach $13.8 trillion 2007
� $6.8 trillion in T&D
� $6.8 trillion in generating capacity
� 2008 – Worldwide distribution of electric power mix
Oil10%
Nuclear16%
Coal39%
Hydro.19%
� Worldwide electric power generation (in TWh)
X 2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
15 000
30 000
Hydro19%
Covering both Generation and T&D markets, AREVA has 2 reasons to benefit from
electricity sector investments
> Overview – April 20094
Nuclear power: a critical part of the solutionfor power generation
Nuclear power generation does not release greenhouse gas:life cycle greenhouse gas emissions very low
1.
2.
3.
4.
Low price of generationalmost immune to uranium price fluctuations
Fossil resources are limitedand uranium conventional resources are 200 times 2008 demand
Energy security of supplyuranium is present in stable countries
> Overview – April 20095
CO2 emission cost (25€/t CO2 )Average MWh cost for new plants
Nuclear power cost competitiveness
* Based on UBS Estimates for Europe (Global Nuclear Power - January 2009).Main technology-specific assumptions include:
- an economic life of 50 years for nuclear power plants, 40 years for coal power plants, and 30 years for combined gas power plant,
- size of 1,500 MW for nuclear power plant, 750 MW for coal plant and 425 MW for combined gas plant, and a CO2 price of €25/t
126
100109
Combined Gas Coal Nuclear
Nuclear € 50 - € 65 NS zzz
Combined cycle gas
Coal
Sources: Enel (July 2008), E.On (April 2008), UBS (January 2009)
€ 65 - € 82
€ 55 - € 75
€ 5 - € 10
€ 15
Full Cost of Generation Including CO2 Costs*(Rebased on nuclear)
CO2 Cost
Cost Comparison for Europe
> Overview – April 20096
Nuclear power cost of generation: limited dependency on fuel price evolution
70%
10%
Fixed operating costs
Fuel & Other variable costs
Capital cost
Sources: Based on E.On estimates for Europe (January 2009) , with Carbon at 20 €/t
20%
Nuclear MWh cost split
70%
2%
Fixed operating costs
Fuel & Other variable costs
Capital cost
15%
Carbon
12%
Combined Cycle GasTurbine (CCGT) MWh cost split
35%
6%
Fixed operating costs
Fuel & Other variable costs
Capital cost
33%
Carbon
25%
Hard CoalMWh cost split
> Overview – April 20097
Nuclear power: a critical part of the solution in the UK
� “ The Government’s conclusion is that nuclear power i s:
� Low-carbon – helping to minimise damaging climate change
�Affordable – nuclear is currently one of the cheapest low-carbonelectricity generation technologies, so could help us deliver our goals cost effectively
�Dependable – a proven technology with modern reactors capable of producing electricity reliably
�Safe – backed up by a highly effective regulatory framework
�Capable of increasing diversity and reducing our de pendence on any one technology or country for our energy or fue l supplies .”
UK Government White Paper (2007)
Appendix 2Situation regarding nuclear in the various regions
> Overview – April 20099
�
The nuclear market place : 436 nuclear reactors in 2009 and more to come from the East
2
130
Western Europe
In service Under construction
28
109
Southern & Eastern Asia
10
67
CIS & Eastern Europe
02
Africa & Middle East
North America
2
126
South America
14
Source: WNA (January 2009)
> Overview – April 200910
Installed capacity in main countries
2008 2007 2008 2007
France* 65.9 65.9 438.6 439.1Germany 21.5 21.4 148.7 140.5Russia 23.2 23.2 162.3 158.3United Kingdom** 12.5 11.9 39.4 58.6Ukraine 13.8 13.8 89.8 92.7Sweden 9.6 9.4 66.9 66.9Spain 7.7 7.7 60.0 55.0Belgium 6.1 6.1 45.8 48.2Finland 2.8 3.0 23.0 23.4Other 17.7 17.4 135.4 125.9
TOTAL 180.8 179.8 1,209.9 1,208.6
* Excluding Phoenix, considered a research reactor. ** Data incomplete for Britain (only Jan-Sep 2008 total available for British Energy Portion)Source: Nucleonics Week, restated by AREVA
Gross capacity(GWe)
Gross generation(TWh)
2008 2007 2008 2007
Canada 15.4 15.0 94.0 94.0United States 107 105.8 842.4 843.0Mexico 1.4 1.4 9.8 10.4Brazil 2.0 2.0 14.0 12.4Argentina 1.0 1.0 7.4 7.2
TOTAL 126.8 125.2 967.6 967.0
Source: Nucleonics Week, March 2008, restated by AREVA.
Gross capacity(GWe)
Gross generation(TWh)
2008 2007 2008 2007
Japan 49.6 49.9 251.7 278.7China 9.0 9.1 42.6 62.9India 4.1 4.1 15.5 17.8South Korea 18.4 18.4 151.0 142.9Taiwan 5.1 5.1 40.8 40.6Pakistan 0.5 0.5 1.9 2.5
TOTAL 86.8 87.1 503.5 545.4
Source: Nucleonics Week, March 2008, restated by AREVA.
Gross capacity(GWe)
Gross generation(TWh)
Appendix 3Front End business details
> Overview – April 200912
New mines will be necessary to meetUranium demand
World Uranium Supply and Demand
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
199
5
199
7
199
9
200
1
200
3
200
5
200
7
200
9
201
1
201
3
201
5
201
7
201
9
tU
Production from existing mines Recycling (Mox, RepU, off-spec)
Russian HEU (existing agreement) Inventory reduction/adjustment
Demand to be covered by new projects Consumption (WNA Upper Scenario 07)
source: WNA 2007
> Overview – April 200913
Conventional fissile resources representmore than 200 years of 2009 world demand
General total of conventional resources: 16,009,100 tWorld demand in 2009*: less than 66,000 t
Resources: > 200 times 2009 demand
10.545.47General total
Subtotal
> 130
80 to 130
40 to 80
< 40
15 to 25
7.77
2.97
4.80
SpeculativeResources
2.77
?
0.82
1.95
PrognosticatedResources
2
2.13
-
0.27
0.65
1.20
InferredResources
1
3.34
-
0.74
0.83
1.77
ReasonablyAssured
Resources
Cost of recovery$/kgU
Unconventional
Conventional
CATEGORY of Uranium resources (million tons = Mt)
*WNA estimate for 2009 Source: Nuclear Energy Agency "Uranium 2007: Resources, Production and Demand"
+ With Gen IV Fast Breeder Reactor, resources are v irtually unlimited
1 Based on direct geologicalevidence
2 Based on indirect geologicalevidence
3 Extrapolated values
3
Identified (deposits) Undiscovered
> Overview – April 200914
�
Uranium (2008 Data) Oil (2007 Data)Gas (2007 Data)
Improved security of supply with Uranium
� Developed countries and China depend largely on oil & gas supplied from unstable areas
Sources: AREVA, IEA
North America
24%
11%
24%
Russia
8%12%
22%
Venezuela 3%
Mexico 4%
Alegria3%
Niger7%
20%
Uzbekistan 5%
Australia
20%
Indonesia
3%
China
4%
4%
28%
38%
Other
Kazakhstan
70% of oil reserves and 40% of gas
reserves
Namibia
10%
Middle East
28%
5%
Key areas of production (in % of global production)
2%3%
3%
1%
1%
2%
1%
1%
> Overview – April 200915
Mining: solid fundamentals in a more volatile environment
AREVA performance � AREVA reserves and resources in 2008
� Replacement of mined reserves
� AREVA reserves/resources constitute 10%
of the world’s identified resources
� 31% increase in exploration expenses, to €56M
� 4% increase in production, to 6,303 MTU
� Increase in production costs of around 15%, comparable to the averagefor the industry
� Stable average AREVA sales prices
$36.90*$36*
20082007
$23*
2006
* per lb U3O80
50
100
150
� Solid fundamentals:
� Utilities want to secure supplies and future
expansion of nuclear fleet
� Price drops in 2008
� Spot: average of $62/lb in 2008 vs. $99/lb
in 2007
Volatility due primarily to investment fund
sales
� Long-term: average of $83/lb in 2008
vs. $91/lb in 2007
Prices stable for the past 5 months at $70/lb
Market trend
LT & spot Ux prices, 2001- 2008
Spot
Long-term Peak – July 07: Spot $138/lbLT $95/lb
Current - Feb. 09Spot $47/lbLT $70/lb
> Overview – April 200916
Enrichment services requirementsshould rise
GBII plant - France
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Spot restrictedSource: Ux / TradeTech
Rise in spot SWU prices to $160 as of 12/31/2008 (vs. $143 early 2008)SWU rates ($)
� Capacity of 7.5M SWU
� First SWU productionin 2009
� Cost and schedule on track
Full use of current capacities
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MS
WU
MS
WU
WNA 2007 scenario - Reference
WNA 2007 scenario - Upper Cumulative capacitiesof global players
> Overview – April 200917
135 out of 305* PWR and BWRreactors in operation worldwide are fueled by AREVA
USA(18P/69, 11B/35)
BRAZIL(2P/2) **
SOUTH AFRICA(2P/2)
TAIWAN(0P/2, 4B/4)
JAPAN(2P/21, 2B/32)
CHINA(6P/7) **
FRANCE(~53P/58)
GB(1P/1)
BELGIUM(5P/7)
SWEDEN(3P/3, 4B/7)
FINLAND(0B/2)
GERMANY(11P/11, ~4B/6)
SPAIN(1P/6,1B/2)
* Map (283) + Mexico (2B), Slovenia (1P), South Korea (16P), India (2B) and Pakistan (1P) : sources AIEA,
WNA as of October 2007** Local fuel makers using Framatome ANP technology
NL(1P/1)
SWITZERLAND(3P/3, 1B/2)
AREVA provides fuel for 92% of its installed basis and 21% for its competitors’ installed basis
> Overview – April 200918
PW
R
1,800 T/y 1,434 T/y 874 T/y
BW
R
Europe
327 T/y
USA
823 T/y 609 T/y
Asia
82%
22%
12%18%
78% 84%
2,127 T/y 2,257 T/y 1,483 T/y
AREVA Westinghouse + Enusa GNF Genusa Others
11%
72%
17%29%10%61%
41%32%
27%
Source : Nuclear Assurance Corporation (Fuel Trac édition 10/2008); Average value over 2008 +/- 1 year
AREVA covers more than 40% of fuel global needs for BWR and PWR (excluding VVER)
4%
Appendix 4Reactors & Services business details
> Overview – April 200920
Maintenance, repare,spare parts replacement, recurring engineering and upgrade
USA: around $10-11Bn of nuclear O&M recurring expen ses in 2007for a production in the range of 843 Bn kWh / y *
O&M recurring expensesshould remain relatively stable and high
~0,4€ cents/kWh
Maintenance
40%
60%
~0,6€ cents/kWh
* NEI, Nucleonics Week (March 2009)
O&M expenses are expected to trend upward in coming years
Europe: Operating & Maintenance expenses per kWh
OperatingTraining
Logisitcs...
> Overview – April 200921
A significant share of O&M expensesare outsourced by the utilities
Source: Nuclear Engineering International – december 2004 / AREVA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
EDF US (Navigant Consult.) US (Duke estimate)
FTE Internal FTE External
Full Time Equivalent workforce internal + external for 1,000 MWe installed
The trend should amplifyin the coming years
> Overview – April 200922
Main componentsof PWR coolant system
5
4
1
2
3
1 Reactor vessel
2 Control rod drive mechanisms
3 Steam generator
4 Reactor coolant pump
5 Pressurizer
22
> Overview – April 200923
PWR steam generator
Heat transfer surface:
4,700 to 7,000 square meters
� mechanical effects of the circulating P and S flows
� chemical effects of the P and S fluids� nominal and transient temperatures
and pressures on P and S sides
DUTY
� nickel-based alloy (tubes),low internal alloy carbon steel (structures) with a stainless steel layer the water chamber (P side)
MATERIALS
� height: 20 to 22 meters� diameter: 3.5 to 5 meters� weight (empty): 300 to 420 metric tons
DIMENSIONS & WEIGHT:
FUNCTIONS
� to transfer heat and ensure leak-tightness between the primary (P) and secondary (S) circuits
Design Commissioning
23
> Overview – April 200924
Thermal Power
Electrical Power
Thermal Efficiency
Limitation of severe accidents consequences
Number of fuel assemblies
Average burnup of reloads
Redundancy factor
Service lifetime
MW
MW
%
GWd/t
years
* Maximum burnup rate currently allowed by the French safety authority
4500
1650
36.8
++
241
>60
4
60
EPRTM
The EPRTM: increased power and safety - extended life expectancy over the most recently built reacto rs
4250
1450
34
+
205
45*
2
40
N4
> Overview – April 200925
NUCLEAR ISLAND: 55-60 %AREVA
CONVENTIONAL ISLAND15-20 %
Alstom, Siemens
CIVIL WORKS10-20 %
BOP5-15 %
Customer
Typical cost breakdown of a Nuclear Power Plantof the EPR TM type
> Overview – April 200926
50% of WW nuclear fleet is over 25 years old129 reactors out of 439 are over 30 years old
Source: IEAE International Status & Prospects of Nuclear Power (February 2009) – Data as of January 2008
Pyramid of ages – 439 nuclear plants – WW nuclear fle et (Data as of January 2008)
A need for re-investmentsin the existing fleet
3 24 5
2
6
3
64 4 3
64 5
9
64
1011
14
2224
3233
21
18
2220
7
141416
11
23
15
1012
57
1 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41Age (in years)
Num
ber
of R
eact
ors
> Overview – April 200927
EDF nuclear power plant lifespan
� EDF objective: bring lifespan of French nuclear fle et significantly beyond 40 years
� 18 nuclear units will reach a lifetime of 40 years between 2015 and 2020
� Shutdown of such units would imply a major investme nt programme in new nuclear units
� Investment necessary to allow a significant extensi on of lifespan beyond 40 years include
� Investment in asset maintenance to be carried out e very year, including replacement of major components
� Ten-year inspection: with significant programmes to improve safety
� Total investment associated
� EDF estimates: c. €08 400 M per unit spread out sev eral years (900 MW unit)
� International benchmark: c. US$ 500/kW (from 40 to 60 years), ie c. US$ 450 M for a 900 MW unit
Source: EDF (January 2009)
> Overview – April 200928
EDF 5 Years Nuclear Capital Expenditures Plan
� EDF recurring nuclear capital expenditures are expe cted to rise in the coming years with increasing nuclear reactors maintenance & life extension spending
EDF 5 years nuclear capital expenditures in France*
Recurring share of nuclear capital expenditures
*Excludes Penly EPRTM Project
Source: EDF, January 2009
> Overview – April 200929
Generation 3 +
Generation 4
Current NuclearFleet with 40-year service life
Life extension past 40 years
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
EDF nuclear plant scenario starting in 2020
Generation 3+: EPR TM
Source: EDF
MWe installed
Renewal over 30 years (2020-2050)Construction of about 2,000 MW/year
Years
Average plant life: 48 years
29
Appendix 5Back End business details
> Overview – April 200931
Recycling is a competitive solution compared to direct disposal
� A 1994 OECD study shows that the overall costs of recycling and direct disposal are more or less identical
� A study conducted by BCG (Boston Consulting Group) in the US in 2006 shows the costs of recycling and direct disposal to be comparable
⊳Interim Storage
⊳Recycling
⊳Transports
⊳Waste disposal
� Interim Storage
� Transports
� Packaging
� Waste Disposal
DIRECT DISPOSALRECYCLING
Recycling Competitiveness
� Recycling reduces the risks associated with the uncertainty surrounding disposal costs
UNCERTAIN COSTS
UNCERTAIN COSTS
DIRECT DISPOSAL
Controlled costs
Strong uncertainty surrounding
costs
CONTROLLED COSTS
CONTROLLED COSTS
RECYCLING
Uncertainty Reduction
Source: International Benchmark AREVASource: BCG, AREVA
Plutonium & Uranium Credits
Total costs Total costs
> Overview – April 200932
Effective reprocessing capacity for lightwater reactors spent fuel
AREVACOGEMA - La Hague
BnFL /Sellafield
Minatom /Chelyabinsk
Japon /Rokkasho Mura(starting 2006)
1,700 mt / y
900 mt / y
Max. 400 mt / y
800 mt / y
Technology transfer
Source: AREVA, World Nuclear Association
In Back End, AREVA is the specialist of spent fuel management
� Considerable barriers to entry for recycling:� Technical and technological know-how� Regulations� Capital requirements
� AREVA is Nr 1 worldwide in terms of effective producti on
AREVA BnFL Minatom JNFL
~24,540 mt
4,010 mt 4,200 mt
420 mt
Up today, AREVA reprocessed c.75% of the spent fuel worldwide,i.e 24,500 mt out of 33,200 mt
Cumulative effective production,as of dec. 2008
> Overview – April 200933
AREVA Logistics Activities� TN International (France), TRANSNUCLEAR Inc. (USA) and TRANSNUCLEAR Ltd.
(Japan)� Design & licensing of dry storage and transport cas ks
� Manufacturing of dry storage casks
� Organization of Transports
� Cask maintenance operations on site
� LMC (France)� Road transport of radioactive materials
� Operations on railway and maritime facilities
� Maintenance of safety vehicles
� MAINCO (France)� Management of site supply chain
� Specific handling operations
� MECAGEST (France)� Manufacturing of mechanical and welded components (cas k baskets, vitrified and
compacted waste containers, etc.)
226 transports organized and 88 casks manufactured in 2008
> Overview – April 200934
AREVA key objectives in logistics business
� Develop our internal resources to anticipate our needs
People
� Maintain Research & Development efforts to offer innovative solutions for our customers in both back-end and front-end
Innovation and marketing
Operations performance
� Develop new fleets while securizingprocurements and sea transportation capacities
Market development
� Develop logistics activities consistently with the back-end sector priorities
> Overview – April 200935
� In compliance with IAEA 2005
� Burn-up: 70 000 MWd/t
� Enrichment: 5%
� Compatible with EPR TM
Used fuel: towards new packagings
TN 1, 1969
MARK II, 1980s-2000s(IAEA 1985)
TN12/2
TN13/2
TN17/2
TN 112, 2008(IAEA 2005)TN G3, 2015-2018
TN 12/1, 1980s
> Overview – April 200936
Nuclear Site Value Development
� AREVA considers nuclear site value development as a fully-fledged industrial activity
� Dedicated entity created in 2008: the Nuclear site Value Development Business Unit
� Role of the entity:
�Promote AREVA’s 20 years experience and expertise in this field
�Within AREVA, develop steer project progress and st andardized methods and techniques
� Key figures
�1,400 employees working on 6 sites
�4 major projects underway for both AREVA and the French Atomic Commission (CEA)
Cadarache: A first for MOX plant dismantling
> Overview – April 200937
Focus on radioactive waste management Framework French Law of June 28, 2006 (1/3)
� Program law:�Provides a framework for the
management of all radioactive waste
�Sets the schedule for management of this waste
� Institutes the principle of a National Management P lan
�Principle: One waste category = One disposal method
���� Key milestones:⇒ Opening of the geologic repository in 2025
⇒ Parliamentary debate and vote in 2015 (retrievabili ty)
> Overview – April 200938
►A definition that reinforces the use of used fuel t reatment:
� “The reduction of the quantity and harmfulness of
radioactive waste is sought, particularly through used fuel
treatment and the processing and packaging of
radioactive waste”
►An obligation to “clean up the past”:
“Owners of long-lived medium-level
waste produced before 2015 must
package it no later than 2030”
►Effective framework for foreign fuel treatment
►A standard solution: decision to dispose of long-li ved medium- and high-level waste packages beginning 2025
Focus on radioactive waste management Framework French Law of June 28, 2006 (2/3)
> Overview – April 200939
� Obligation to create a long-term management fund an d related management rules � Fund localized in companies
� Concerns the dismantling and disposal of long-lived medium- and high-level waste
� No transfer to the State (responsibility, fund)
� Very strict framework (amount, exposure, oversight by special commission)
� Note: Evaluation of disposal costs by an ad hoc wor king group led by the administration
One of the world’s most comprehensive law in this field :
Stabilizes the future and controls the fundamentals
Focus on radioactive waste management Framework French Law of June 28, 2006 (3/3)
> Overview – April 200940
Radioactive waste French classification
Waste category
VLL
(very low level)
A
(low level -LL)
B
(medium level - ML)
C
(high level -HL)
Short-lived(half-life < 30 years)
Long-lived(half-life > 30 years)
Morvilliers Disposal Center, in operation since 2003
Sub-surface storage center, opening slated for 2013
La Manche Disposal Center, full, closed (1969-1994), in 300-year monitoring period
Deep disposal center, decided by the law of June 28 , 2006 (opening slated for 2025)
Underground Laboratory in Bure (Meuse – Haute Marne)
Soulaines Disposal Center,in operation since 1992
Appendix 6T&D business details
> Overview – April 200942
T&D investments will outpace GDP growth in the near future
Source: AREVA
Economyglobalization+
� More networks inter-dependency to copewith potential shortages
� More economical exchanges of electricity
� More interconnections of networks withdifferent phases or frequency
� Increased needs in Automation
Past investmentconsequences+
� Old equipments in Western countries� Under-investments following privatization
leading to recent black-outs (Italy, US, …)� Lower grid / generation spare margin
� Need for refurbishment investments� Needs in Automation
Increase in T&Dintensive sourcesof electricity
+� Integration of renewables
� Need to connect distributed energysystems to the grids
� Expected strong growth of Wind with highT&D investments requirements
Growthof electricity in global energymix
+� Urbanization fostering need of safer /
cleaner energy� Long term shortage in Oil& Gas primary
sources of energy� Global warming leading to CO 2 emission
reduction objectives
GDP growth
> Overview – April 200943
AREVA T&D commercial achievements & strategy of selective acquisition and partnerships in 2008
� Major commercial achievements�Significant contracts with Dubai Electricity (UAE), StatoilHydro (UK),
UTE (Melo - Uruguay), National Grid/RTE (IFA2000 - UK/France), etc.
�N°1 in India�New leadership position in HVDC (excl. China)
� Major strategic moves�Acquisitions to increase our products portfolio: Waltec (Brazil), RB
Watkins (USA) and Nokian Capacitors (Finland)
�Strategic partnerships with GE (India) and Shanghai Electric (China)
� Production capacity increases to support growth�12 Greenfields in China, India, Poland and Turkey�Extension of key units in France, Switzerland and Germany, etc.
> Overview – April 200944
�
RB Watkins
Waltec
T&D India/GE India
PTR/Shanghai Electric Group
DSC/Sino American
PDS-GIS/Huadian
DSC-PDS/Leekeen
DSC/Hengchi
GIS/Jinxin
Key Strategic Moves in 2008
€290m full-year sales impact
Acquisitions
Partnerships
Joint-Ventures
Nxtphase
Nokian
> Overview – April 200945
New leadership positions established
� EMS
� Disconnectors
� GIS
� SPS Aluminum
� Instrument Transformers
� HVDC*
*Excluding China
Gas-Insulated Substation
Energy Management Systems
High Voltage Direct Current
Special Products Suppliers
> Overview – April 200946
Enlarged products portfolio
PACiS 4.5
GIS F35-5 bay
PIX High for Nuclear Segment
100% Vegetable oil Power Transformer
Top core Current Transformer
MaxSine SVC
Power transformer
MS 3000 Monitoring
> Overview – April 200947
AREVA’s smart grid vision
CO2 free energy sources
integration
CO2 free energy sources
integration
• Nuclear• Centralized /
Decentralized Renewable• Micro–renewable• Energy storage
Transmission optimization
Transmission optimization
• Infrastructure (incl. long distance, both energy & communication)
• Network management
Distribution optimizationDistribution optimization
• Infrastructure ( to enable bi-directional power flows, communication)
• Network management
New consumption modes integration and management
New consumption modes integration and management
• Electric cars• µ-production and µ-grid• Deregulated environment• Smart appliances &
buildings
Energy policies / Regulatory push
New technologies capabilities
EnablersBlackout
preventionBlackout
prevention
• Defense plan• React in real-time• Online Stability• Closed Loop Control
Market efficiency
Environmental concerns
Energy efficiency
+
Customers needs
Reliability and Quality
Stability
Appendix 7Outlook China
> Overview – April 200949
� Electricity consumption 1995-2020
Source: China Electricity Council (CEC) , Market Study, Financial Crisis Impact Study
China: strong growth in power consumption despite slow down in 2008
> Overview – April 200950
China: the energy challenges
� Secure economic growth
� Minimize energy dependency
� Ensure sustainable development
�Ensure social stability by reducing disparities: electricity for all at
an affordable price
�Take action on environmental issues , both for existing pollution
and global warming
�Expand the interconnection market (HVDC) for electricity
transmission to densely populated, developed areas
80% of hydraulic resources
70% of coal reserves
Better developed Regions
Nuclear power and advanced T&D technologieshave a major role to play
> Overview – April 200951
China: overview of the energy sector
� Per capita consumption is still low and very dispar ate
� Insufficient installed capacity
� 792 GW installed as of the end of 2008, with a target of 1500 GW by 20201
� A promising market
� China’s capital spending on new generating capacity and in the transmission
and distribution sector is expected to rise to 50 billion dollars per year from 2006
to 2010.
� China’s electricity transmission and distribution market represents 25% of the
world market
� Renewable energies law is effective since 2006 to e ncourage renewable energy resources
� Renewable energy is expected to reach 10-12% of total installed power
capacity by 2020
� China is to become the first market in Renewable Energy from 2010
1 Source: China Electricity Council and World Nuclear Association
> Overview – April 200952
China: AREVA’s positions
� More than 2,900 employees, of which 2,800 employees for T&D
� More than 735 million euros sales in 2008
T&D
Reactors &Services
Front-End
24%
47%29%
AREVA’s Sales split
T&D
> Overview – April 200953
China: AREVA T&D’soperations in China
*Sales by destination in 2008 (not including products manufactured in China and exported overseas)
� China’s T&D market 2008 represents 25% of the worl d market and is expected to keep growing despite of current fina ncial crisis
� Substantial capital expenditure is required in ligh t of the country’s rising energy demand at above 10% CAGR 2006-2010
� More than 365 million euros in sales in 2008 *
� Breakdown of the Chinese T&D market in 2008:
Local players = 70% of the market
ShenGao1% PingGao
4%
TWBB2%
TBEA5%
Nari 3%
XJ Group2%
Japanese/Korean3%
Other MNCs3%
XD Group8%
Others44%
ABB15%
SIEMENS7%
AREVA3%
> Overview – April 200954
China: T&D Market Growth
� T&D Market Drivers
�Fast industrialization (2008 Industrial production growth: +13%)
�Urbanization and improved living standards
� Need for infrastructures and appliances
�Need to efficiently connect distant power generatio n and main consumption centers over long distance (UHV and HVD C opportunities)
�2008 annual capacity increase = 90 GW (~ UK install ed capacity)
40,5%41,8%
43%44%
45%47%
48%
50,0% 50,4% 51,0%
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
52%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Urbanization rate
> Overview – April 200955
China: nuclear power’s share is expectedto quadruple by 2020
� Total installed capacity in 2008: 792 GW, mostly the rmal
� Nuclear power’s share is still limited in China: 9 G W, corresponding to 1.5% of 2008 total installed genera ting capacity in China
� Objective: 5% by 2020, i.e. 70 GW
Source: China Electricity Council
77%
1.5%
20%
1.7%
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Fossil Fuel (gas, coal, oil)
China Installed Generating Capacity (2008)
> Overview – April 200956
China: nuclear civilian sites11 reactors in operation – 18 under construction
> Overview – April 200957
China: AREVA role in the developmentof the nuclear fleet
Daya Bay - 1994
Qinshan I - 1991
Qinshan II phase 1 – 2002; 2004
Qinshan III – 2002; 2003
Ling Ao I – 2003
Tianwan – 2007
Ling Ao II – 2010; 2011
Qinshan II phase 2 – 2011; 2012
Other project Gen 2 & 3
Built by AREVA
Significant Participation (Supply, assistance, …)
Projects to come
A wide offerof services, equipments
and fuelfor the whole fleet
A strong presence in the newly built plants
200x Commissioning date
2015201020001990
Hongyanhe – 2012; 2013
Taishan – 2013; 2014
> Overview – April 200958
China: the largest contractever signed
in the nuclear business
Material and Servicesfor 15 years of operation
Constructionof 2 EPRTM
nuclear islands
Discussions to start on cooperation for
treatment and recycling
€8 Bn
> Overview – April 200959
China: renewable energies outlooks
� AREVA Bioenergy
�600 to 900 MW to be installed yearly to reach 20 00 0 MW installed
capacity by 2020
�Annual market turnover related to boiler island exp ected
to exceed 200 M€ by 2012
�No market saturation foreseen before 2012.
AREVA’s technology, based on its operating feedback ,
is an asset in the stiff competition with local boi ler manufacturers
�AREVA aims at:
� Developing boiler engineering competences, combinin g AREVA mastered technology and low cost manufacturing
� Low cost sourcing for oversea projects
Appendix 8Outlook India
> Overview – April 200961
India: massive growth of nuclear generated power is expected over the next 40 years
4 GWe
50 GWe
Nuclear installed capacity should multiply by more
than 10 by 2050
66 GWe**
Francein 2008
2008 2050
Source: Indian Office of the Minister of State for Commerce & Power (February 2009), Nucleonics Week
15%
68%
4%3%
10%
Nuclear percentage should rise from 3% in 2008 to 25%of the power mix in 2050
75%
25%
Coal
Other Renewable
Hydraulic
Nuclear
2007
20502020
20 GWe
� Population growth (x 1.5 from 2000 to 2050)
� GDP growth (7.5% per year in 2008, and c.6% expecte d in 2009*)
� Increase in electricity access (44% of Indian house holds have no access to electricity in 2008)
Key drivers
Oil
* Economist Intelligence Unit, February 2009** Nucleonics Week, March 2009
Others
> Overview – April 200962
India: Important T&D investments to continue
�T&D Indian 11 th Five Years Plan (2008-2012)Fresh capacity addition is considered to be the mai n driver for future demand for Electrical Equipments in the T&D segment
(Rs Bn)
(GW)
(GVA)
CapacityFunds Required
Transmission
Central Sector
State Sector
750
650
Distribution
Sub-Station787
Augmentation of S/S
793
43
16
292 *
198
* 292 GVA to be added + 500,000 Nos. of Industrial installations (HT)
Source: JM Financial, Planning commission working group report on power sector
> Overview – April 200963
� T&D India Market share 2008
India: AREVA T&D has a strong competitive position
� Major land marks:
� 70% market share in the EMS segment for Transmission networks
� Supplied and commissioned India’s first 765 kV substation in 2007 for NTPC Sipat plant
� 20% of HVDC inter-regional linkages
� Largest number of GIS referencesin India
� Network Consultancy contract for Reliance Energy’s Delhi & Mumbai networks ; 1 st of its kind in India
� Modernization of Bhutan’s electrical network for 2 cities
Source: AREVA. Market share calculation based on 2008 orders
AREVA
16.9%
Siemens
8.8%
BHEL
5.2%CGL
4.9 %
Others
38.8%
ABB
15.6%
L&T
2.1%
Chinese – Koreans
7.7%
> Overview – April 200964
India: AREVA benefits from an historical presence in India since 1950s’
� 8 manufacturing sites
� 3 new manufacturing sites
� 4,200 employees
� 22 sales offices
Full fledge local player covering UHV, HV, MV, Systems and Automation
Dehli, Noida
Naini
Kolkata
BangaloreChennai
Pondicherry
Baroda
NAINI
CHENNAI
BANGALORE
KOLKATA
NOIDA, DELHI
CHENNAI
PONDY
KOLKATA
Map as of end of 2008
Hosur
Padappai New factories
> Overview – April 200965
India: the country has developed a strong nuclear industry
� India has developed a strong domestic nuclear indus try, drawing on the benefits of earlier cooperation with Canada, France, the United States, Russia…
� NPCIL is the specialized nuclear utility in India, architect-engineer and operator of 17 reactors (+ 6 under construction )
� Operating reactors are derivatives of Candu (14) and BWRs (2), but are rather small (160 to 500 MW range)
� India is developing fast neutron reactors, proof of its technological capability and forward-looking approach
� Nuclear supply chain in India is dominated by sever al large public and private industrial groups, like BHEL, Larsen & Toubro, Tata,etc.
� India now aims to supply 25% of electricity from nuclear p ower by 2050, from 3% in 2008
> Overview – April 200966
India: 17 reactors in operation and 6 under construction
PHWR (3.760 MW)BWR (320 MW)
PHWR (660 MW)VVER (2.000 MW)
RAWATBHATA 1, 2, 3 & 4740 MW
440 MW (5 & 6)
KAKRAPAR 1&2440 MW
TARAPUR 1, 2, 3 & 41400 MW
KAIGA 1, 2 & 3620 MW220 MW
Plants in operation
Plants under construction
NARORA 1&2440 MW
KALPAKKAM 1&2440 MW500 MW (Fast breeder reactor)
KUDANKULAM 1&22000 MW
FBR (500 MW)fast breeder reactor
> Overview – April 200967
India: recent evolution of the specific country situation relating to non-proliferation commitments
� India did not sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Tr eaty (NPT)and conducted its first nuclear test in 1974
� From that time, on-going cooperation between India and other countries was interrupted, and supplier states put in place the N SG (Nuclear Suppliers Group, 45 countries today) to regulate nuclear expo rts
� Since adoption of Full-Scope Safeguards in 1992, NS G member states do not allow themselves to export nuclear technology, equi pmentand fissile material to any country not complying w ith Full-Scope Safeguards
� Between 2005 and 2008, discussions between India an d several NSG member states took place, for an agreement on safeguarding civilian nuclear facilities and fissile material paving the way for a new conse nsus within NSG
� Summer 2008: India obtained a green light from AEIA and the NSG validated an exceptional arrangement to permit its members to deal with. Some countries had already signed MOU with India to put in place framework agreement of cooperation
� February 2009: India signed a safeguard agreement w ith the AIEA, allowing individual countries to further trade with India in civilian nuclear field
> Overview – April 200968
� V. Poutine visit: February 2007
India: success of the discussions with NSG members
� India/USA statement: July 2005
� G. Bush visit: March 2006
� Bilateral cooperation:India / Canada (PHWR)India / France (FBR)India / USA (BWR)
1974 2006 20072005
� 1st Indian nuclear test
AREVA
Feasibility report for 6 GW
AREVA
Feasibilityreport for EPR TM
February 2006: President
Chirac visit
July 2006: AREVA visit
� India / France statement: September 2005
July 2008: AEIA
green light
2008
� American Congress vote: December 2006
2009
January 2009: AREVA
– Bharat Forge JV**
February 2009: AREVA
– NPCIL MoU for up to 6
EPRTM Reactors***
December 2008: AREVA – NPCIL 300 tU
Supply Contract*
February 2009: Nuclear safeguards agreement between India and the IAEA
� Nuclear cooperation agreements with France
* First of its kind MoU between India and a foreign nation** Joint Venture with Bharat Forge for the production of heavy components of nuclear reactors (to start in 2012)*** Memorandum of Understanding to supply 2 to 6 EPRTM reactors
September 2008:
End of 34 years Ban
from Nuclear
Suppliers Group
� Nuclear cooperation agreements with US
> Overview – April 200969
India: key challenges for AREVA� For Nuclear:
� Successfully license the EPR TM with the Indian nuclear regulatory authority
� Sign final contract with NPCIL for the construction of the 2 first EPR TMs at Jaitapur
� Set up the announced joint venture with Bharat Forg es in order to start the production of
heavy forging components for the EPR in 2012
� For T&D: grasp market growth
� Increase capacity: Greenfield, lean manufacturing
� Cover all market segments by localization of techno logy and specific developments to
address market needs
� Overall, leverage India to support AREVA strategy w orldwide
� Recruit and retain talents
� Manufacturing base for other units
� Engineering resources and R&D centers of excellence
� Strong supplier base
Appendix 9Financials
> Overview – April 200971
Change in revenue 2008/2007 like-for-like
In millions of euros
2008 2007
RevenueRevenue like-
for-likeExchange
rateimpact
Consolidationscope impact
Change in valuation method
Reportedrevenue
Front End division 3,363 3,136 (53) 46 4 3,140
Reactors & Servicesdivision 3,037 2,739 (47) 19 49 2,717
Back End division 1,692 1,735 (4) 0 0 1,738
Nuclear 8,092 7,610 (103) 65 53 7,595
T&D division 5,065 4,375 (121) 169 0 4,327
Corporate and Other 3 1 0 0 0 1
Consolidated 13,160 11,985 (224) 233 53 11,923
> Overview – April 200972
Non-operating items
ChangeIn millions of euros 2007 2008 08/07
Operating income 751 417 (334)
Net financial income (expense) 64 (29) (93)
Share in net income of associates 148 156 8
Income tax (81) (46) 35Effective tax rate 9.9% 11.8% +1.9 pts
Minority interests (139) 91 230
Net inc. attributable to equity holders of parent 743 589 (154)
> Overview – April 200973
Net financial income
ChangeIn millions of euros 2007 2008 08/07
End-of-life-cycle operations 107 (57) (164)Including:Income from earmarked portfolio and interest on receivables 175 87 (88)Non-portfolio income 113 182 69Discount reversal on end-of-life-cycle portfolio and schedule revisions (181) (327) (146)
Net borrowing costs (excl. discount/premium) (53) (11 1) (58)
Discount/Premium (20) (16) 4
Income from disposal of securities 3 370 367
Discount reversals on retirement/benefits provision (55) (72) (17)
Other financial income and expenses 82 (143) (225)
Net financial income (expense) 64 (29) (93)
> Overview – April 200974
Share in net income of associates
� The negative results of ST Microelectronics (-84% c ompared with 2007) are offset in part by Eramet's positive perfor mance
ChangeIn millions of euros 2007 2008 08/07
STMicroelectronics (25) (46) (21)
Eramet group 153 187 34
Other 20 15 (5)
TOTAL 148 156 8
> Overview – April 200975
Minority interests in subsidiaries' earnings
ChangeIn millions of euros 2007 2008 08/07
AREVA NP (17) (186) (169)
AREVA NC 129 76 (53)
AREVA T&D 23 32 9
AREVA TA 3 4 1
Other 1 (17) (18)
TOTAL 139 (91) (230)
> Overview – April 200976
Cash flow and net debt
In millions of euros 2007 2008
Ebitda (excluding end-of-life-cycle costs)* 1,335 1,181% of revenue 11.2% 9.0%
Gain (loss) on disposal of operating assets 1 (197)
Change in operating WCR (432) (451)
Net operating Capex (2,889) (1,454)
Free operating tax flow before tax (1,985) (921)
End-of-life-cycle obligations 171 (115)
Net financial Capex (131) (462)
Dividends paid (345) (326)
Revaluation of minority put options (liability) (932) (19)
Other (income tax, non-operating WCR, etc.) 85 (577)
Change in net cash position (3,137) (1,496)
Net debt (12/31) (4,003) (5,499)
> Overview – April 200977
2,25,5
0,15,2 3,3
8,0
4,87,3
1.8
5,7
Assets (simplified) Liabilities & equity(simplified)
Simplified balance sheet at 12/31/09
Goodwill
PP&E and intangible assets
Assets earmarked for end-of-life-cycle operations
Non-current financial assets
Equity
Provisions for end-of-life-cycle operations
Other provisions**
WCRInvestments in associates
= 21.9 =
* Net debt excluding unexercised put options = borrowings including interest-bearing prepayments – cash – marketable securities – non-trade current account assets
** Including net deferred taxes
Net debt*
In billions of euros
> Overview – April 200978
End-of-life-cycle operations
4 9545 404
1 964
270
270
2 991
Assets Breakdown ofAREVA assets
Provisions
AREVA Third party share
End-of-life-cycle operationsat December 31, 2008
In millions of euros
Earmarked portfolio
Receivables
� The law of June 28, 2006 on the sustainable management of radioactive materials and waste requires a 100% reserve ratio by June 28, 2011 for end-of-life-cycle provisions using dedicated assets
� Since 2002, AREVA’s reserve ratio has ranged from 90% to 110%
� At December 31, 2008, in an environment of severe crisis in financial markets, it was 92%
> Overview – April 200979
In millions of euros 2007 2008* 2007 2008 2007 2008*
Nuclear 3,172 5,005 429 37 13.5% 0.7%
T&D 761 1,086 265 402 34.8% 37.0%
Other 331 2,250 (111) (111) - -
Consolidated 4,264 8,341 583 328 13.7% 3.9%
ROACE (1/2)
Average Capital Employed
Net Operating Income ROACE
* Unadjusted for goodwill linked to the Siemens put option
> Overview – April 200980
2007 2008unadjusted for
In millions of euros Siemens’ put option
Net operating income 583 328
Net intangible assets 2,729 3,089
Goodwill used in ROACE calculation 2,520 4,748*
Property, plant and equipment 4,204 4,914
Customer prepayments on assets (907) (941)
Operating WCR 368 656
Provisions for contingencies and losses (3,088) (3,430)
Capital employed 5,826 9,036
Average capital employed 4,264 8,341
ROACE 13.7% 3.9%
ROACE (2/2)
CONSOLIDATED
* Unadjusted for goodwill related to Siemens’ put option
> Overview – April 200981
Balance Sheet (1/2)
-1Pension assets
34,644
-
113
1,050
154
164
2,434
4,486
3,403
11,804
900
2,152
1,757
4,954
270
189
4,913
3,089
4,803
22,841
December 31, 2008
-Assets of operations held for sale
30,676Total assets
279Other current financial assets
634Cash and cash equivalents
141Other non-operating receivables
94Current tax assets
1,402Other operating receivables
3,884Trade accounts receivable and related accounts
2,817Inventories and work-in-process
9,251Current assets
604Deferred tax assets
2,588Other non-current financial assets
1,558Investments in associates
2,873Assets earmarked for end-of-life-cycle operations
2,491End-of-life-cycle assets (third party share)
174Including: End-of-life-cycle assets (AREVA share)
4,204Property, plant and equipment
2,729Other intangible assets
4,377Goodwill on consolidated companies
21,425Non-current assets
December 31, 2007
ASSETS(in millions of euros)
> Overview – April 200982
Balance Sheet (2/2)
LIABILITIES AND EQUITY(in millions of euros)
34,644
-
53
104
2,884
2,991
4,752
2,693
2,081
15,558
760
3,969
123
5,674
1,268
11,795
745
589
(131)
287
4,455
1,347
7,292
December 31,2008
1,175Employee benefits
11,951Non-current liabilities
30,676Total liabilities and equity
-Liabilities of operations held for sale
41Other non-operating liabilities
127Current tax liabilities
1,921Other operating liabilities
2,565Trade accounts payable and related accounts
4,172Advances and prepayments received
613Current borrowings
1,823Current provisions
11,261Current liabilities
1,277Deferred tax liabilities
4,302Non-current borrowings
121Other non-current provisions
5,075Provisions for end-of-life-cycle operations
470Minority interests
743Net income attributable to equity holders of the parent
(138)Currency translation reserves
1,117Deferred unrealized gains and losses
3,925Consolidated premiums and reserves
1,347Share capital
7,464Equity and minority interests
December 31,2007
> Overview – April 200983
Income Statement
16.6216.62
35,442,701
589
91
--
498
156
343
(46)
(29)
81
(111)
(148)
38
(43)
417
214
460
(980)
(607)
(453)
2,286
(10,906)
3213,160
2008
-Net income from discontinued operations
20.95Diluted earnings per share*20.95Basic earnings per share
35,442,701Average number of shares outstanding
743Net income attributable to equity holders of the pa rent
(139)Les minority interests
882Net income from continuing operations
148Share in net income of associates
734Net income of consolidated businesses
(81)Income tax
64Net financial income
138Other financial income and expenses
(73)Net borrowing costs
(110)Gross borrowing costs
37Income from cash and cash equivalents
(57)
751
Restructuring and early retirement costs
Operating income
(123)
808
Other operating income and expenses
Operating income before restructuring expenses
(881)General and administrative expenses
(529)Marketing and sales expenses
(421)Research and development expenses
2 762Gross margin
(9,183)Cost of sales
21Other income from operations11,923 Revenue
2007In millions of euros
* Adjusted for net income from discontinued operations
> Overview – April 200984
Consolidated
Segment reporting (1/2)
% of revenue
Operating income
Contribution to consolidated revenue
Income items
In millions of euros(except number of employees)
Free operating cash flow
Change in operating WCR
Net Capex
% of consolidated revenue
Ebitda (excl. end-of-life-cycle)
Cash flow items
Number of employees
Capital employed*
PP&E and intangible assets .
Other
� 2008
Corporate, Other and
EliminationsT&DBack End
Reactors and Services
Front End
3,363
453
13.5%
780
23.2%
(664)
(533)
(609)
5,595
6,091
14,240
* Capital employed at the end of the period
3,037
(687)
-22.6%
(349)
-11.5%
(365)
124
(591)
1,436
159
19,477
1,692
261
15.4%
320
18.9%
(88)
190
422
1,947
(906)
10,906
5,065
560
11.1%
587
11.6%
(324)
(276)
(20)
1,308
1,356
29,966
3
(170)
-
(158)
-
(13)
44
(124)
2,520
2 336
825
13,160
417
3.2%
1 181
9.0%
(1,454)
(451)
(921)
12,806
9 036
75,414
> Overview – April 200985
Consolidated
6.3%
751
11,923
(1,985)
(432)
(2,889)
11.2%
1,335
65,583
5,826
11,310
Segment reporting (2/2)
% of revenue
Operating income
Contribution to consolidated revenue
Income items
In millions of euros(except number of employees)
Free operating cash flow
Change in operating WCR
Net Capex
% of consolidated revenue
Ebitda (excl. end-of-life-cycle)
Cash flow items
Number of employees
Capital employed*
PP&E and intangible assets
Other
� 2007
Corporate, Other and
Eliminations
-
(166)
1
(190)
(20)
(33)
-
(137)
620
345
2,325
T&D
9.2%
397
4,327
233
(5)
(193)
9.8%
426
25,248
816
1,053
Back End
11.7%
203
1,738
172
(186)
(81)
25.3%
440
10,638
(644)
1,897
Reactors and Services
- 6.6%
(179)
2,717
(528)
(81)
(322)
- 4.6%
(125)
16,500
178
1,141
Front End
15.8%
496
3,140
(1,673)
(140)
(2,260)
23.3%
731
12,577
5,135
4,894
* Capital employed at the end of the period
> Overview – April 200986
2008 sales revenue by BU (1/2)
Front End division
Mining23%
Chemistry8%
Enrichment32%
Fuel37%
Reactors and Services
Back End division
Logistics14%
Cleanup6% Engineering
3%
Treatment -Recycling
63%
Transmission & Distribution
Products53%
Systems31%
Automation10%
Services6%
Nuclear services26%
Plants39%
Nuclear measurement
6%
Equipment9%
AREVA TA12%
Consulting/Information Systems5%
Renewable energies
5%
Nuclear Site Value Development
14%
> Overview – April 200987
2007 sales revenue by BU (2/2)
Front End division
Mining23%
Chemistry8%
Enrichment34%
Fuel36%
Reactors and Services
Back End division
Logistics13%
Cleanup6% Engineering
3%
Treatment -Recycling
81%
Transmission & Distribution
Products49%
Systems32%
Automation11%
Services8%
Nuclear services29%
Plants39%
Nuclear measurement
6%
Equipment8%
AREVA TA11%
Consulting/Information Systems6%
Renewable energies
1%