areva, business & strategy overview - january 2009
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AREVA, Business & strategy overview - January 2009TRANSCRIPT
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AREVABusiness & Strategy overview
January 2009
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> Overview – January 20093
Disclaimer
Forward-looking statements
This document contains forward-looking statements and information. These statements include financial forecasts and estimates as well as the assumptions on which they are based, statements related to projects, objectives and expectations concerning future operations, products and services or future performance. Although AREVA’s management believes that these forward-looking statements are reasonable, AREVA’s investors and investment certificate holders are hereby advised that these forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that are difficult to foresee and generally beyond AREVA’s control, which may mean that the expected results and developments differ significantly from those expressed, induced or forecast in the forward-looking statements and information. These risks include those developed or identified in the public documents filed by AREVA with the AMF, including those listed in the “Risk Factors” section of the Reference Document registered with the AMF on April 15, 2008 (which may be read online on AREVA’s website, www.areva.com). AREVA makes no commitment to update the forward-looking statements and information, except as required by applicable laws and regulations.
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> Overview – January 20094
Agenda
1. Group’s overview: financial performance and strategy
2. Performances and objectives by division
3. Financials
4
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> Overview – January 20095
AREVA provides solutions for CO2 free electricity generation, transmission and distribution
Nuclear
Transmission& Distribution
5
71,000 people100 countries
€11,923M sales(2007)
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> Overview – January 20096
AREVA is Nr 1 in Nuclear and Nr 3 in T&D
€7,6bn64%
No. 1 worldwide in Nuclear
No. 3 worldwide in T&D
2007 market size:€25bn
2007 market size:€53bn
Market share: 25-30%
Market share: 8-10%( vs ABB: 24%, Siemens 18%)
No.1 in Europe and the USNo.1 in Plants / FuelNo.1 in the Back End
France
Europe(excl. France)
Asia-Pacific
Americas
Africa & Middle East
17%
28% 19%
29%
7%
€4,3bn36%
Geographic sales2007 Sales by business
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> Overview – January 20097
Key figures
26.2%6.1%30.1%Debt / equity ratio**
(1.985)(513)(521)Free operating cash flow*
+€2.64 €20.95+€13.14€8.31€21.45Earnings per share
+14.5%743+€465m295760Consolidated net income
+2.6 pts6.3%+4.8 pts3.9%8.7%% of revenue
+84.6%751+€332m207539Operating income
+9.8%11.923+14.8%5.3736.168Revenue
+55.4%39.834+13.6%33.55338.123Backlog
∆ FY 07/062007∆ 08/07H1 2007H1 2008In millions of euros
H1 2008 vs H1 2007 FY 2007 vs FY 2006
* EBITDA +/- change in Operating WCR – Operating CAPEX net of disposals
** including minority interests but excluding minority put options
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> Overview – January 20098
20-25% 25-30%
5-10%
5-10%
65-70%
70-75%
20-25%
30-35%
20-25%
25-30%
20-25%
15-20%
20-25%
1-5%
10-15%
*
*
*
*
10-15%
5-10%
10-15%
20-25%
25-30%
20-25%
10-15%
15-20%
20-25%
15-20%
25-30% (Belgonuclear)
JNFL2,260 t2Recycling(MOX fuel)
JNFL31,150 t2
Treatment
Back End
35-40%€15 bnReactors & Services
10-15%6,800tNatural Uranium
fuel (UO2)
5-10%45m
SWUs 1Enrichment
20-25%60,000 tConversion/Chemistry
25-30%65,000 tMining / Natural
Uranium
Front End
AREVA is the only fully integrated playeron the Nuclear value chain
Recent strategic moves
2007
Mar
ket
CAMEC
O
UREN
CO
USEC
AREV
A
Tosh
iba
NDA
/ BNG
3
AEP
4
GE /
Hita
chi
MHI
Othe
rs
1 Separative Work Units2 Cumulated, worldwide – AREVA Estimate3 Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (Uk)4 AtomEnergoProm (Russia)
* Figures unidentified or not disclosed
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> Overview – January 20099
Electricity will require $ 14 trillion investments
Total 26,3 Trillion $
AIE – World Energy Outlook 2008
Estimated energy market investments 2007 – 2030 (cumulated)
Power generation and T&D are the key pillars of AREVA’s growth
24 % Oil$13,600Bn
Electricity 52 %
Production 6 600 Md $
T&D 7 000 Md $
21 % Gas
3 %Coal
< 1 % Biofuels
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> Overview – January 200910
AREVA’s 2030 scenario: construction or lifeextension of more than 500 GWe of nuclear power
2006 2030
International institutions
GWe net installed
Theoretical end of life
Life extensions
Newbuild
267
186
635
372
344
Scenario
AREVA nuclear projection is in line with international institutions forecasts
824: WEO1- 2008- 450 ppm Policy Scenario
731: WNA2 - 2007- High Estimate748: IAEA - 2008 – High Estimate
529: WNA - 2007 - Reference
473: IAEA - 2008 – Low Estimate
433: WEO - 2008 – Reference Scenario
498: DOE3 EIA4 - 2008 Reference Case
AREVA’s target
684: WEO- 2008- 550 ppm Policy Scenario
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> Overview – January 200911
New construction should affect all regionsof the world
Source: AREVA’s estimates
New installed nuclear generating capacity after 2006by geographic area (2007 - 2030)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
GWe Net
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Europe 27 + CIS N. & S. America Asia Africa WORLD
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> Overview – January 200912
In €Bn
64
9
3
12
7
128
6
12
7
19
9
15
Europe NME China India N. & S.America
Eurasia EAP
25%
29%
58%
133%
33%
50%33%
Growth 07-12
2007
2012
Strong structural trendsModernization of grids and interconnectionsNew generating capacities and related transmission lines Renewable energies and energy efficiency
The Transmission & Distribution market should continue to grow
Note: Market Assessment 2007, pre crisisSource: AREVA’s estimates
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> Overview – January 200913
AREVA’s strategy: to set the standardin CO2-free power generation and electricity
transmission and distribution
Capitalize on our integrated business model to spearheadthe nuclear revival
Maintain the existing fleets’ safety and performance levels
Build 1/3 of new nuclear generating capacities*
Make the fuel cycle secure for our current and future customers
Ensure strong, profitable growth in T&D
Expand our renewable energies offering
...while remaining the leader in safety and security
1
2
3
* of the accessible market
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> Overview – January 200914
AREVA heavily invests for securing the future of its customers
2006 2007 H1 2008
669*813**
459
TechnologyR&D spending, in millions of euros
2006 2007 H1 20082006 2007 H1 2008
8,6006,000
Human capitalNew hires
11,500Workforce
61,10065,500 71,000
* excluding the acquisition of the ultra-centrifugation technology** excluding R&D projects acquired through UraMin
Mining and conversion New generations of fuelAdditional reactor typesGeneration III treatment and recycling plantT&D: ultra high voltage, new productsFuel cells and improved wind technologies
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> Overview – January 200915
The investment program is being carried out Strategic objectives and profitability requirements
2004-2007
Net capital expenditure
€1.5 - €2.5 Bn / year (**) 2008-2012 (e)(**) excl. acquisition
~ €1.4 Bn / year (*)
(*) incl. acquisitions
Mining projects: Namibia, Canada, Niger Centrifugation technology, front-end industrial capacities(GB II, Comurhex II)EPR certification and ATMEA and SWR developmentT&D acquisitions (Ritz, Nokian Capacitors, Passoni & Villa, etc.)Development in Renewable Energies: Multibrid, Koblitz, AdageCapacity extension in R&S and T&D
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> Overview – January 200916
An open-ended business model Appropriate strategic partnerships at our customers’ request
2008 Forgings -Creusot
Strategic agreementin T&D
International Recycling Alliance: closing the cycle in the US
2007
2006 - 2007
2005 Construction of EPRs in the US
: development of a 1100 MW Generation III + reactor2006
2002 & 2006 50/50 ownership of centrifuge technology with URENCO
2004Development and operation of minesin Canada
Engineering agreement
Development and operation of minesin Kazakhstan
Excerpts
Large forged part procurement
Facility to manufacture heavy components in the US
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> Overview – January 200917
Outlook
Consolidated sales revenue > €20 billion
Double-digit operating margin
Free cash flow once again significantly positive
By the end of the current strategic plan (2012)
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> Overview – January 200918
Agenda
1. Group’s overview: financial performance and strategy
2. Performance and objectives by division
3. Financials
18
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> Overview – January 200919
Front End division -AREVA invests in Mines and Enrichment
in millions of euros 2006 2007 H1 2008
Order book 11,335 20,960 19,108
Sales revenues 2,919 3,140 1,488
Operating income 456 496 400% Sales 15.6% 15.8% 26.9%
Op. FCF before tax (186) (1,672) (46)
Nr 1 worldwide in the overall front-endIntegrated player: ability to secure clients’access to front endStrategic partnership with clients through commercial agreements and/or equity dealsStrong position in fuel assembliesChallenge : impact of commodities & production costs increase
Strengths & issues
Double uranium production by 2012 and increase resources
Production ramp up : Trekkopje, Katco, Imouraren, etc.
Succeed in the construction of enrichment facilities in France and in the US
Strategic priorities
Sales – 2007 split
34%
8%
23%36%
Mining
Chemistry
Enrichment
Fuel*(* 34%
in AREVA NP)
Key financials
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> Overview – January 200920
AREVA develops a uniquely diversified portfolio to make the fuel cycle secured for its customers
AustraliaExploration since 1969
MongoliaExploration
KazakhstanMining & global fuel agreement signedKatco production ramp-up / licensefor 4,000 tU obtainedExploration
CanadaDevelopment (Shea Creek, Millennium, etc.)Exploration since 1964
MoroccoAgreement signed with Office Chérifien des Phosphates
NigerImouraren mining permit obtained Exploration since 1950
UraMinNamibia - Trekkopje: mining permit obtained / 1st productionin 2009Central African Republic -Bakouma: agreement on deposit mining conditions Exploration
Production(metric tons of U)
~ 6,000
~12,000
2007 20121
JordanExploration JV to be created with the Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
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> Overview – January 200921
Making the fuel cycle secure for our customersAdapting our production facilities and customers partnerships
ConversionFrance: Comurhex II project
• Capital investment of €610M launched in 2007• New plants at the Tricastin and Malvési sites
EnrichmentFrance: GB II
Investment of close to €3BCapacity of 7.5 million SWUModularity enabling production to start in 2009
United States (Bonneville, Idaho): “Eagle Rock”Investment of close to €2BCapacity of 3.0 million SWUProduction to start in 2014-2015
Strategic agreements and partnerships with utilities to secure their accessto the fuel cycle
Suez acquired a 5% equity interest in GBII enrichment facility
ProductivityCapacityInnovation
GB2 - Construction site
Eagle Rock, Idaho
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> Overview – January 200922
Increase margins in recurring business (first Gen III+ dilute margin)
Deliver on OL3, Flamanville and Taishan
Complete the design the ATMEA PWR/SWR BWR reactor through JV with MHI and E.ON
Strengthen heavy components fabrication capacities on growing markets
Develop Renewable Energies Business Unit
Optimise cost structure
Reactors & Services division -Still mostly recurring, but new built is there
~100 GW installed capacity WW – 26% total80% sales are recurring and 20% concern projects (new reactors and plant modification) The first company to have Gen.III+ reactors under construction (Finland, France, China)Fleet of reactors developed/under development to address market needs (EPR, ATMEA, SWR)Ability to anticipate the nuclear renaissance (industrial capacity and human resources)
Strengths & issues
in millions of euros 2006 2007 H1 2008
Order book 4,413 7,640 7,633
Sales revenues 2,312 2,717 1,466
Operating income (420) (179) (258)% Sales (18.2% (6.6%) (17.6%)
Op. FCF before tax (350) (528) (407)
Sales – 2007 split
1%
6%6%11%
8%
29%
39%
Nuclear measures
Reactors*
Nuclear services*
Equipment*
AREVA TA
CIS
(* 34%in AREVA NP)
Renewable Energies
Key financials Strategic priorities
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> Overview – January 200923
Reactors and Services is mostly a recurring business
Servicing and operation of existing reactors
Large equipment replacement(vessel inspections, steam generators, etc.)
On-site maintenance services
Open-ended engineering services
Dismantling services
Uprating, upgrading and life extension
Reactor new buildsDesign, safety analysis and construction of new reactors and first reload
Recurring
business
> 80%
of sales
% of 2007 sales Prospects
Service life extension for installed baseload in the US
Business development in U.S. and Asia
Strong European market share
Development of innovative contracting mechanisms such as “alliancing”
Non-recurring
business
< 20%
of sales
Contracts in progress: EPR construction in Finland, in France and in China
Long term opportunities: new construction, likely in UK, in Italy, in India, in South Africa and in the US
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> Overview – January 200924
AREVA is present on the key battlefields Main nuclear programs announced worldwide
CanadaTarget* : more than 8 GWe from 2014 Call for tender in progress
UKTarget* : 10 GWe by 2020EPR selected by EDF and E.ON for their UK projects
FranceFlamanville 3 (EPR) under constructionFrance announces a 2nd
EPR by 2017
FinlandOlkiluoto 3 (EPR) under construction
EmiratesPreparationof the EPR project with SUEZ and TOTAL
China23 reactors under construction o/w 2 EPRsTarget* : 60 GWe by 2020
India6 reactors under constructionTarget* : 60 GWe by 2030Discussion between AREVA and local utilities
US32 COL** applications in progressEPR selectedby 5 utilities
ItalyTarget* : 8 to 10 new large reactors by 2030
(*) : Nuclear generation capacity announced by countries(**) : Construction and Operating License
Countries where EPR are under constructionCountries where big nuclear programs are announced
1
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> Overview – January 200925
Continuous deliveries of quality products and process improvements for existing plants and new build projects
We’re not just building a plant, we’re building an industry
Chalon Saint Marcel30 years of operationsWorkshop: 39 000 m²Reactor Pressure Vessels,Steam Generators, Pressurizers,Safety Injection Accumulators
Newport NewsStart of operation: 2012Workshop: 300,000 ft²Reactor Vessels, Steam Generators, and Pressurizers
Sfarsteel (Creusot Forge)Heavy forging and machiningWorkshops: 85 000 m² (4 sites)
2900m²extensionin 2006
AREVAsince2006
Bridging the Gap: Supply Chain Certainty An integrated manufacturing approach
$363M announced2008
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> Overview – January 200926
Expand our renewable energies offering
51% of Multibrid in Germany5 MW off-shore specific designSelected for 3 major wind parks
Wind power
Become a major playerin offshore wind energy
Helion, FranceStrong R&D capability(PEM technology)
Hydrogen power
Supply energyfor transportation
and manufacturing
Bioenergies
Design & deliver biomass fired power plants world
wide
Presence in Brazil, Western Europe and IndiaJV Adage with Duke Energy
in the US98 power plants in operation; 2,430 MWe
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> Overview – January 200927
Back End division -An unchallenged leadership
Nr 1 worldwideHighly recurrent sales due to long term contracts: backlog runs through 2015Main investments completed Technology transfer through long term partnership: e.g Japan (Rokkasho Mura)
Renew reprocessing and recycling contracts
Optimize industrial efficiency of the two main plants (La Hague and Melox)
Market closed-cycle technologies in the new US (GNEP) and China back-end policies
Capitalize on AREVA trade mark to win management contracts
Strengths & issues Sales – 2007 split
in millions of euros 2006 2007 H1 2008
Order book 6,375 6,202 5,591
Sales revenues 1,908 1,738 930
Operating income 273 203 175% Sales 14.3% 11.7% 18.8%
Op. FCF before tax 156 172 73
Logistics
CleanupEngineering
Treatment-Recycling
6%3%
13%
78%
Strategic prioritiesKey financials
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> Overview – January 200928
Back End market combines reprocessing, final disposal and “wait-and-see” solutions
RUSSIA
FORMEREASTERN
BLOCK COUNTRIES
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
FRANCESWITZ.
UK
USA(to date)
GERMANY
BELGIUM
SPAIN
ASIA
JAPAN
SWEDEN FINLAND
Final Disposal
(Open cycle)
ReprocessingRecycling
(closed cycle)
mt of heavy metal/year
CHINA
AREVAcustomers
OTHERS
Mixed solutions
Difference in costs between closed and open cycles is impactless on the kWh cost
Back-end cost represent less than 6% of the overall nuclear kWh cost
When choosing the closed cycle:
96% of the materials can be recycled
wastes volumes are divided by a factor 4 to 5
Radio-toxicity of long term wastes is reduced by a factor 10
?
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> Overview – January 200929
International recognition for AREVA’s leadership
Sellafield site: AREVA and partners selected
Management and operation of the Cumbria siteas part of the UK Nuclear Waste Management consortium (low-level radioactive waste)
5 contracts awarded by the DOE Savannah River: construction of a MOX plantfor the disposition of U.S. defense plutoniumSavannah River : treatment and disposal of radioactive liquid wastes at the DOE Savannah River Site in South CarolinaHanford Tanks: participation in site cleanupand dismantlingGlobal Nuclear Energy Partnership: contract extension for feasibility studies on the closed cycleYucca Mountain: management of the used nuclear fuel depository project
CNNC – China: progress on feasibility studies for an 800 MT recycling plant
Hot testing at RokkashoMura (sister plant of La Hague)AREVA signs another series of contracts to deliver MOX fuel through 2020
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> Overview – January 200930
T&D division -Long term outlooks still positive
A full fledged player: products & solutionsfor high and medium voltage technologies
A global sales force in over 100 countries
Strong position in the electrical utilities segment
Now Nr 2 in terms of profitability
Cyclicality exposure, especially with industry customers
Strengths & issues
in millions of euros 2006 2007 H1 2008
Order book 3,503 4,906 5,791
Sales revenues 3,724 4,327 2,284
Operating income 191 397 253% Sales 5.1% 9.2% 11.1%
Op. FCF before tax 94 233 (45)
Sales – 2007 split
Products
Systems
Automation
Services
8%11% 49%
32%
Ensure profitable growth
Be the benchmark for utilities
Increase market share in selected industry markets
Grow faster than the market by building up presence in growth regions and segments
Be a key player in Ultra High Voltage
Adapt industrial footprint to the market
Be Chinese in China
Invest in R&D as much as the industry leader
Strategic prioritiesKey financials
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> Overview – January 200931
T&D: Vitality and solidity of orders booked
2,637
3,166
1,687 1,630 1,676
2,033 2,125 2,228
3,184Orders booked in €M *
* Before inter-divisional eliminations** Exchange rate at 12/31/2007
1,495 1,535 1,596 1,7131,949 2,104 2,205 2,251
2,678
192
320176
124
432 433
488500
95 80
H1 04 H2 04 H1 05 H2 05 H1 06 H2 06 H1 07 H2 07 H1 08
Current operations "Elephant" contracts Qatar (**)
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> Overview – January 200932
72
119
175
230253
H1 06 H2 06 H1 07 H2 07 H1 08
T&D: objective of double-digit operating margin achieved 18 months early
2006 2007 2008
4.2%
5.9%
8.7%
9.9%11.1%
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> Overview – January 200933
Profitable growth
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2005 2007
Sales revenue Operating WCR
3,212
339 400
4,327
+ 34.7%
+18.0%
422
3,724
2006- 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
50%
40%
- 9%
19%
35%
ROACE
In millions of euros
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> Overview – January 200934
Speeding up the profitable growth dynamic
Profitability(operational excellence)
Market share(strategic position)
15%
15%10%
10%
0%
5%
1%
2006
2004
H1 2008
Competitiveness
Profitable growth
3 YP 3 YP2
Differentiation
4 YP
2012
11% €2.3 Bn
€4.3 Bn
€3.7 Bn
€3.2 Bn
2007
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> Overview – January 200935
Agenda
1. Group’s overview: financial performance and strategy
2. Performance and objectives by division
3. Financials at 12/31/2007
35
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> Overview – January 200936
2007 key data by division
Operating income by division€751M
Sales by division€11,923M
Transmission & Distribution
Reactors & Services
Front-End
15%
36% 26%
23%
Back-EndFront- end
3,1402,717
1,738
4,327
496-179
203 397
R&S Back- end
T&D
Sales Operating income
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> Overview – January 200937
Operating cash flow
Increase in EBITDAChange in WCR: use of advances/provisions (Back End/Reactors)Acceleration of Capex program (UraMin)
2007
Gain/(loss)on disposals
EbitdaChangein WCR Capex Operating
cash flow
2006
Gain/(loss)on disposals
EbitdaChangein WCR Capex
Operating cash flow
1,292 1,335
(1,985)
(432)
(2,889)
+1
(358)
(352)
(1,248)
(50)
In millions of euros
(1,295*)
(*) excluding Uramin acquisition
(391*)
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> Overview – January 200938
Simplified balance sheet at December 31, 2007
Goodwill
PPE and intangible assets
Assets earmarked for end-of-life-cycle operations
Non-current financial assets
Equity
Provisions for end-of-life-cycleoperations
Other provisions
WCR
Net debt excluding value of Siemens' put option* : €1.954 Bn(and €2.385 Bn at 6/30/08)
Investments in associates
= 20.8 =
(*) Net cash excluding put options = cash + cash equivalents + current account assets – borrowings including interest bearing advances
Siemens' put option
In billions of euros
2.62.00.5
5.4 3.8
6.9
4.47.5
1.6
5.1
Assets(simplified)
Liabilities & equity(simplified)
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> Overview – January 200939
Capital structure
CEA + FRENCH STATE + ERAP
87%
Investment CertificateHolders (free float)
4%
Total
1%
Employees
2%
EDF
2%
CDC
4%
o/w 15%
in a CEA decommissioningfund