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52 HOOF BEATS APRIL 2017

Ariana G leads Hoof Beats Comprehensive Predictive Trotting Rankings DANGEROUS W OMAN

2017 TROTTING PREVIEW

HOOF BEATS APRIL 2017 53

Ariana G leads Hoof Beats Comprehensive Predictive Trotting Rankings

She was by far the richest 2-year-old trotter in 2016. This year, she has been predicted to be the richest 3-year-old trotter in the Hoof

Beats Predictive Trotting Rankings.Ariana G, a daughter of Muscle

Hill – Cantab It All bred and owned by Marvin Katz and Al Libfeld, earned $743,967 last year, besting runner-up Walner, who earned $484,037.

The last filly to lead all 3-year-old trotters in earnings? Bee A Magician in 2013, who earned $1,547,304 en route to a Horse of the Year season.

The rankings combine Track-Master computer rankings with online polls of both racing fans and experts. Fans and experts both picked Ariana G to be No. 2 behind Walner, but the TrackMaster predictions picked Ariana G to be No. 2 and Walner to be No. 17. That gave Ariana G 75 Comprehensive Points, enough points to vault over Walner, who had 62. Devious Man also had 62 points, but Walner’s 137 first-place votes broke the tie.

During February and March, three groups were asked to rank who they thought would be the richest 3-year-old trotters at the end of 2017:

• A group of 33 harness racing handicappers and track per-sonnel ranked their top 10 by predicted earnings in an online survey.

DANGEROUS W OMAN by T.J. BURKETT

photos by MARK HALL

RANKED AT NO. 1

ARIANA G“A full sister to 2016 Hambletonian Oaks winner All The Time, Ariana G won nine of 11 starts, including the Breeders Crown, Doherty Memorial, International Stallion Stakes, Peaceful Way and Champlain. And her bankroll was the larg-est among all freshman trotters, topping second-place Walner by almost $260,000. The latter went a tick faster and will no

doubt out-hoof her again, but with Jimmy Takter calling the shots and Yannick Gingras at the controls, the daughter of Muscle Hill, who easily out-earned the previous two fresh-

man divisional champs, Mission Brief and Broadway Donna, should create an impressive pile of dollars once again.”Joe FitzGerald • “View From the Racetrack Grandstand” blog


• Some 175 harness racing fans completed a similar online sur-vey on ustrotting.com predict-ing their top 10 trotters by earnings.

• TrackMaster, headed by pres-ident David Siegel, ran a regression analysis using 19 variables, including 2-year-old starts, 2-year-old TrackMaster Speed Ratings, 2-year-old earn-ings, 2-year-old wins and in-the-money finishes, and sibling performance as 3-year-olds.

Then the data was tabulated. In the fan and expert poll, each vote received a preliminary point value that corresponded to its ranking. For example, a No. 1 vote is worth 10 points; No. 2 is worth 9 points, all the way down to 1 point for No. 10. Those preliminary points are tabu-lated and the horses are ranked and given their secondary points.

The top 25 horses in the fans and expert poll were given secondary points that counted toward the com-prehensive total. For example, the horse ranked No. 1 in the fan poll, Walner, was given 26 points. No. 2, Ariana G, was given 25 points. No. 25, Barn Bella, was given 2 points. All horses that received at least one vote in the fan poll got 1 secondary point. TrackMaster submitted their top 25, so each of those horses was given its secondary points.

The Hoof Beats Comprehensive Trotting Ranking was determined by finding out which horse had the most points across all three polls. A perfect score would be 78, which is 26 points in each poll for ranking first. Ariana G earned 75 points (25 in the fan poll, 25 in the expert poll, and 25 in the TrackMaster poll).

Ties in total points were broken by most first-place votes in either the fan or expert poll, if applicable. If there were no first-place votes for either horse, they remain tied and were listed in alphabetical order. Horses receiving one comprehensive point are listed in alphabetical order.

Whose ranking will be the best? It will take us all year to find out. Find out how you did last year on page 58. (F) = Filly (G) = Gelding

1 ArianaG (F) Muscle Hill – Cantab It All – Cantab Hall $743,967 2.(15) 25 2.(3) 25 2 25 75 2 Walner Chapter Seven – Random Destiny – Ken Warkentin $484,037 1.(109) 26 1.(28) 26 17 10 62 3 DeviousMan Credit Winner – Miss Garland – Garland Lobell $308,233 4.(4) 23 5.(1) 22 10 17 62 4 FineTunedLady (F) Cantab Hall – Poster Princess – Pine Chip $438,340 5.(6) 22 7 20 13 14 56 5 WhatTheHill Muscle Hill – K T Cha Cha – Angus Hall $315,686 3.(3) 24 4 23 47 6 SnowstormHanover Muscle Massive – Snow Angel Hanover – Andover Hall $340,149 6.(2) 21 3 24 45

7 Giveitgasandgo (R) Yankee Glide – Mazda Hanover – Andover Hall $272,640 7.(5) 20 6 21 41 8 PrincessAurora (F) Cantab Hall – Vulcanize – Muscles Yankee $287,102 9 18 8 19 37 9 ThatsAllMoni (F) Cantab Hall – Mom’s Millionaire – Pine Chip $226,773 8.(1) 19 10 17 36 10 MagicPresto (F) Kadabra – In The Mean Time – Muscles Yankee $294,762 10 17 9 18 35 11 Chezatter (F) Explosive Matter – Chez Lucie – Malabar Man $218,262 12 15 11 16 31 12 InternationalMoni Love You – Moni Maker – Speedy Crown $154,387 11.(4) 16 13 14 30 13 SuchAnAngel Credit Winner – Michelle’s Angel – Andover Hall $145,695 T32 1 22.(1) 5 5 22 28 14 SouthwindFiat Muscle Hill – Flawless Lindy – Cantab Hall $3,540 1 26 26 15 SevenAndSeven (F) Chapter Seven – Ally Oop – Kadabra $173,059 13.(2) 14 16 11 25T16 Let’sGetStarted (F) Dejarmbro – Tori Ann – S J’s Photo $243,910 15 12 17 10 24 3 25T16 KingOnTheHill Muscle Hill – Lantern Kronos – Viking Kronos $89,775 T51 1 3 24 25 18 NewJerseyViking Muscle Hill – Hall Of Wishes – Broadway Hall $146,138 18.(1) 9 12 15 24 19 MoonshinerHanover Andover Hall – Madam Hooch – Credit Winner $263,101 16.(1) 11 15 12 23T20 MassProduction (G) Muscle Mass – All Time Favorite – Angus Hall $217,668 17 10 14 13 23T20 YesMickey (G) Muscle Hill – My Favorite Chip – Pine Chip $600 4 23 23 22 SatinDancer (F) Big Stick Lindy – Shaken Not Stirred – Credit Winner $265,433 14.(3) 13 18 9 22 23 Grits’NSeven (F) Chapter Seven – Bourbon ’N Grits – Donerail $8,096 6 21 2124 SheerAssault Chapter Seven – Sheer Soul – Yankee Glide $7,400 7 20 20 25 SirJohnF Donato Hanover – Emmylou Who – Ken Warkentin $38,005 8 19 19

Fan Ranking Expert Ranking Hoof Beats 2-Year-Old (first-place Fan (first-place Expert TrackMaster TrackMaster Total Ranking Horse Name Breeding Earnings votes) Points (votes) Points Ranking Points Points

2017 Hoof Beats Comprehensive Predictive Rankings for 3-Year-Old Trotters

2017 TROTTING PREVIEW y Comprehensive Predictive Rankings

RANKED AT NO. 2WALNER

RANKED AT NO. 3DEVIOUS MAN“Devious Man is the only top horse right now with a proven half-mile track dominance. Team Miller can capitalize on all of the small-track purses and the New York Sire Stakes circuit. Should be a fun watch all year, and will have extreme confidence when stepping up to face the Grand Circuit ranks.” Ryan Macedonio • “TrotCast” podcast

1 ArianaG (F) Muscle Hill – Cantab It All – Cantab Hall $743,967 2.(15) 25 2.(3) 25 2 25 75 2 Walner Chapter Seven – Random Destiny – Ken Warkentin $484,037 1.(109) 26 1.(28) 26 17 10 62 3 DeviousMan Credit Winner – Miss Garland – Garland Lobell $308,233 4.(4) 23 5.(1) 22 10 17 62 4 FineTunedLady (F) Cantab Hall – Poster Princess – Pine Chip $438,340 5.(6) 22 7 20 13 14 56 5 WhatTheHill Muscle Hill – K T Cha Cha – Angus Hall $315,686 3.(3) 24 4 23 47 6 SnowstormHanover Muscle Massive – Snow Angel Hanover – Andover Hall $340,149 6.(2) 21 3 24 45

7 Giveitgasandgo (R) Yankee Glide – Mazda Hanover – Andover Hall $272,640 7.(5) 20 6 21 41 8 PrincessAurora (F) Cantab Hall – Vulcanize – Muscles Yankee $287,102 9 18 8 19 37 9 ThatsAllMoni (F) Cantab Hall – Mom’s Millionaire – Pine Chip $226,773 8.(1) 19 10 17 36 10 MagicPresto (F) Kadabra – In The Mean Time – Muscles Yankee $294,762 10 17 9 18 35 11 Chezatter (F) Explosive Matter – Chez Lucie – Malabar Man $218,262 12 15 11 16 31 12 InternationalMoni Love You – Moni Maker – Speedy Crown $154,387 11.(4) 16 13 14 30 13 SuchAnAngel Credit Winner – Michelle’s Angel – Andover Hall $145,695 T32 1 22.(1) 5 5 22 28 14 SouthwindFiat Muscle Hill – Flawless Lindy – Cantab Hall $3,540 1 26 26 15 SevenAndSeven (F) Chapter Seven – Ally Oop – Kadabra $173,059 13.(2) 14 16 11 25T16 Let’sGetStarted (F) Dejarmbro – Tori Ann – S J’s Photo $243,910 15 12 17 10 24 3 25T16 KingOnTheHill Muscle Hill – Lantern Kronos – Viking Kronos $89,775 T51 1 3 24 25 18 NewJerseyViking Muscle Hill – Hall Of Wishes – Broadway Hall $146,138 18.(1) 9 12 15 24 19 MoonshinerHanover Andover Hall – Madam Hooch – Credit Winner $263,101 16.(1) 11 15 12 23T20 MassProduction (G) Muscle Mass – All Time Favorite – Angus Hall $217,668 17 10 14 13 23T20 YesMickey (G) Muscle Hill – My Favorite Chip – Pine Chip $600 4 23 23 22 SatinDancer (F) Big Stick Lindy – Shaken Not Stirred – Credit Winner $265,433 14.(3) 13 18 9 22 23 Grits’NSeven (F) Chapter Seven – Bourbon ’N Grits – Donerail $8,096 6 21 2124 SheerAssault Chapter Seven – Sheer Soul – Yankee Glide $7,400 7 20 20 25 SirJohnF Donato Hanover – Emmylou Who – Ken Warkentin $38,005 8 19 19

Fan Ranking Expert Ranking Hoof Beats 2-Year-Old (first-place Fan (first-place Expert TrackMaster TrackMaster Total Ranking Horse Name Breeding Earnings votes) Points (votes) Points Ranking Points Points

2017 Hoof Beats Comprehensive Predictive Rankings for 3-Year-Old Trotters


“If Walner stays together, he could very well become the second com-ing of Muscle Hill.” Murray Brown • Hanover Shoe Farms

“Walner looked sensational dur-ing his world record at Red Mile and in the Breeders Crown at the Meadowlands. His connections are savvy horsepeople and know how to aim a colt for the big events.”Chris Tully • Harness Racing Museum and Hall of Fame

“The things that Walner did at 2 years old were unprecedented. He will be a very big horse to watch in 2017.” Michael Carter • “Post Time with Mike and Mike” radio show

“Walner dominated the 2-year-old male trotters in New York state last year before giving a dominating performance at Lexington and then setting a track and stakes record in the Breeders Crown. If he picks up where he left off, he may be peer-less in 2017.” Tim Bojarski • U.S. Harness Writers Association president


Fan Ranking Expert Ranking Hoof Beats (first-place Fan (first-place Expert TrackMaster TrackMaster Total Ranking Horse Name votes) Points (votes) Points Ranking Points Points*

26 AffairOfHonor 9 18 18 27 BarnGoddess (F) 11 16 16 28 Wutan 12 15 15 29 PeacefulKemp (F) 14 13 13 30 AnotherChapter 15 12 12 31 WayOutWest(F) 16 11 11 T32 LakeviewBengi (G) 18 9 9 T32 MoneyMacintosh 35 1 19 8 9 T32 WinterSweetFrost (F) 20 7 25 2 9 35 MusclesJared(G) 19.(2) 8 8 36 Sortie 37.(1) 1 20 7 8 37 Chromeo 19 8 8 38 DoverDan 21.(2) 6 T32 1 7 T39 RoyalDreams 20 7 7 T39 Rubio 50 1 21 6 7 T41 BarnBella (F) 25 2 23 4 6 T41 DonatoFashion (F) 21 6 6 T41 Treviso (F) 22 5 T30 1 6 44 Can’tI(F) 23.(2) 4 T26 1 5 45 Eddiction (F) 22 5 5 46 Jake 24.(2) 3 T32 1 4 T47 Bill'sMan T56 1 24 3 4 T47 MarionMardiGras (F) 23 4 4 49 FoxySwan (F) 26.(1) 1 T26 1 2 T50 AmberElla (F) 38 1 31 1 2 T50 BuckeyeBoss T32 1 T26 1 2 T50 ChimSwift (F) 25 2 2 T50 JesseV 41 1 T30 1 2 T50 MamoraBay (F) 36 1 T32 1 2 T50 TycoonSeelster (G) 40 1 T32 1 2 T56 StickWithMeKid 30.(1) 1 1 T56 TopFlightAngel 45.(1) 1 1 T58 Ajessia (F) T51 1 1 T58 AlwaysAGoodTime 42 1 1 T58 Amuse’s (F) 60 1 1 T58 AndyM T54 1 1 T58 DangleThenDeke(F) 29 1 1 T58 FlyOn 27 1 1 T58 FraserRidge 43 1 1 T58 Gravitator (F) T56 1 1 T58 He’sGone T46 1 1 T58 LindyTheGreat T54 1 1 T58 OnASunnyDay (F) 31 1 1 T58 OverdraftVolo (F) T46 1 1 T58 PresidentLindy 59 1 1 T58 RoseRunSpanky (G) 34 1 1 T58 SignalHill T46 1 1 T58 SimplyVolo (G) 39 1 1 T58 SouthwindCobra T56 1 1 T58 SunshineDelight (F) T46 1 1 T58 SweetOfMyHeart (F) T51 1 1 T58 TempleRuins (F) 28 1 1 T58 UltimateEncore(G) 44 1 1 T58 VictorGioIT T26 1 1

Best of the Rest

RANKED AT NO. 12INTERNATIONAL MONI“Could this son of French sire Love You carry on Moni Maker’s immortal legacy? Late in 2016, he unleashed eye-catching final quar-ters in the Valley Victory elimina-tion and final.”

Melissa Keith • freelance writer

RANKED AT NO. 11CHEZATTER“Chezatter had a keen sense of using her best strides at the best time to be in the thick of the top three at the wire and should be cashing many checks in top affairs at 3.” Frank Cotolo • TwinSpires


(F) = Filly (G) = Gelding * If two horses have the same points, any first-place votes from fans or experts break ties


Listed below are the rest of the top 79 trotters in this year’s Hoof Beats Comprehensive Predictive Rankings.

Fan Ranking Expert Ranking Hoof Beats (first-place Fan (first-place Expert TrackMaster TrackMaster Total Ranking Horse Name votes) Points (votes) Points Ranking Points Points*

26 AffairOfHonor 9 18 18 27 BarnGoddess (F) 11 16 16 28 Wutan 12 15 15 29 PeacefulKemp (F) 14 13 13 30 AnotherChapter 15 12 12 31 WayOutWest(F) 16 11 11 T32 LakeviewBengi (G) 18 9 9 T32 MoneyMacintosh 35 1 19 8 9 T32 WinterSweetFrost (F) 20 7 25 2 9 35 MusclesJared(G) 19.(2) 8 8 36 Sortie 37.(1) 1 20 7 8 37 Chromeo 19 8 8 38 DoverDan 21.(2) 6 T32 1 7 T39 RoyalDreams 20 7 7 T39 Rubio 50 1 21 6 7 T41 BarnBella (F) 25 2 23 4 6 T41 DonatoFashion (F) 21 6 6 T41 Treviso (F) 22 5 T30 1 6 44 Can’tI(F) 23.(2) 4 T26 1 5 45 Eddiction (F) 22 5 5 46 Jake 24.(2) 3 T32 1 4 T47 Bill'sMan T56 1 24 3 4 T47 MarionMardiGras (F) 23 4 4 49 FoxySwan (F) 26.(1) 1 T26 1 2 T50 AmberElla (F) 38 1 31 1 2 T50 BuckeyeBoss T32 1 T26 1 2 T50 ChimSwift (F) 25 2 2 T50 JesseV 41 1 T30 1 2 T50 MamoraBay (F) 36 1 T32 1 2 T50 TycoonSeelster (G) 40 1 T32 1 2 T56 StickWithMeKid 30.(1) 1 1 T56 TopFlightAngel 45.(1) 1 1 T58 Ajessia (F) T51 1 1 T58 AlwaysAGoodTime 42 1 1 T58 Amuse’s (F) 60 1 1 T58 AndyM T54 1 1 T58 DangleThenDeke(F) 29 1 1 T58 FlyOn 27 1 1 T58 FraserRidge 43 1 1 T58 Gravitator (F) T56 1 1 T58 He’sGone T46 1 1 T58 LindyTheGreat T54 1 1 T58 OnASunnyDay (F) 31 1 1 T58 OverdraftVolo (F) T46 1 1 T58 PresidentLindy 59 1 1 T58 RoseRunSpanky (G) 34 1 1 T58 SignalHill T46 1 1 T58 SimplyVolo (G) 39 1 1 T58 SouthwindCobra T56 1 1 T58 SunshineDelight (F) T46 1 1 T58 SweetOfMyHeart (F) T51 1 1 T58 TempleRuins (F) 28 1 1 T58 UltimateEncore(G) 44 1 1 T58 VictorGioIT T26 1 1

Best of the Rest

RANKED AT NO. 18NEW JERSEY VIKING“New Jersey Viking should make a sub-stantial jump this year. He’s one of the most physically impressive colts of the crop who didn’t always have the best luck at 2.” Jay Hochstetler • trainer and writer

TIED AT NO. 39RUBIO“Betting favorite in all of his 2016 starts for Jimmy Takter, it’s hard to exclude this Cantab Hall colt from consideration at 3. A $75,000 yearling, but praised by regular driver Yannick Gingras for great manners, high speed and love of passing other horses.”Melissa Keith (F) = Filly (G) = Gelding * If two horses have the same points, any first-place votes from fans or experts break ties

TIED AT NO. 47BILL’S MAN“Everyone remembers Walner and Ariana G, but did you know Bill’s Man was the third-fastest 2-year-old trotter in 2016? The raw speed is there if he has his act together.” Derick Giwner • DRF Harness


For the third consecutive year, the fans did the best job predicting the richest 3-year-old trotters of the season.

Neither the fans, the experts nor the TrackMaster computer could pick Marion Marauder as the richest 3-year-old trotter at the end of 2016; however, one anonymous fan and expert Frank Cotolo did pick him to be No. 1 in their respective polls.

The fans ran away with this year’s poll by predicting five of the top 10 richest trotters of 2016: Southwind Frank, Broadway Donna, Caprice Hill, Marion Marauder and All The Time (all pictured below). Combine that with the 11 correct horses in the top 25, and they ended up with 72 points.

The experts just missed having Marion Marauder in their top 10, so they slid to 62 points.

TrackMaster were the only ones to have Dante, Bee In Charge and Earn Your Wings in their top 25, but it wasn’t enough to put them over the top. They finished with 36 points.

RUNAWAY

FANS

(F) = Filly (G) = Gelding

To comment on this story, e-mail us at [email protected].

2016 Fan Expert TrackMaster Comprehensive Rank Horse Name Earnings Ranking Ranking Ranking Ranking

1 MarionMarauder $1,484,532 10 11 12 2 BarHopping $1,191,195 T47 26 T45 3 SouthwindFrank $1,164,468 1 1 7 1 4 BroadwayDonna (F) $664,708 2 2 12 2 5 CapriceHill (F) $538,138 3 4 9 3 6 FlowersNSongs (F) $499,314 7 EmoticonHanover (F) $490,696 T34 T34 T45 8 Dayson (G) $479,508 22 19 T30 9 AllTheTime (F) $447,970 4 6 20 5 10 Smalltownthrowdown (G) $446,263 T57 T29 T45 11 NonStick (F) $363,787 27 T31 T45 12 Sutton $361,096 13 Lagerfeld $344,216 6 5 16 4 14 CufflinkHanover (G) $340,041 15 Dante $321,534 13 T27 16 Consolidator (F) $271,537 17 LoveMatters $268,124 18 T21 T27 18 FadFinance (F) $267,606 19 BridgeToJesse’s (G) $264,702 13 12 14 20 CelebrityEventsy (F) $262,591 19 T21 32 21 BeeInCharge (G) $262,055 3 19 22 RoyalCharm (F) $260,331 23 EarnYourWings (F) $245,800 8 24 24 FawnDeSavage (F) $237,909 25 Milligan’sSchool $237,166 8 10 10 No. 1 Predicted? (50 Points for Yes) 0 0 0 Top-10 Finishers (10 Points Each) 5 (50) 4 (40) 2 (20) Top-25 Finishers (2 Points Each) 11 (22) 11 (22) 8 (16) TotalPoints 72 62 36

TIED AT NO. 58VICTOR GIO IT“Let’s remember he was second in the Peter Haughton final at the Meadowlands. He was placed on the sidelines early (September) and I wouldn’t put it past Jimmy Takter to turn this son of Ready Cash into a champion.”Derick Giwner

SOUTHWIND FRANK BROADWAY DONNA CAPRICE HILL MARION MARAUDER ALL THE TIME


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