arizona voters and education issues - stand for children poll.pdf · problem facing arizona today;...
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1
Arizona Voters and Education Issues
December 2017
Arizona Voters and Education Issues
December 2017
2
500 live telephone interviews among a representative sample of
voters in Arizona.
Landline (41%) and cell phone (59%) interviews conducted
December 7-10, 2017.
Plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level.
Methodology
Sample
Method
Sampling Error
3
Philosophy
•Very Cons. 17%•Somewhat Cons. 18%•Moderates 30%•Liberals 25%
Gender
•Men 47%•Women 53%
Age
•18-34 26%•35-44 13%•45-54 13%•55-64 23%•65+ 26%
Arizona Electorate
Party Registration
•Republicans 36%•Democrats 29%• Inds./others 34%
Ethnicity
•Caucasians 66%•Hispanics 15%•African Americans 4%•Native Americans 2%•Others 8%
Vote History
•0-1 of 4 35%•2 of 4 22%•3 of 4 16%•4 of 4 27%
Education
•0-12 years 17%•13-15 years 28%•16 years 28%•17+ years 21%
Income
• Less than $34,999 22%• $35,000-$49,999 16%• $50,000-$74,999 15%• $75,000-$99,999 11%• $100,000-$149,999 14%• $150,000 or more 9%
2016 Presidential Vote(Among those who voted)
• Trump 37%•Clinton 38%•Other 16%
4
Political Environment
5
48%
19%
34%
40%
14%
46%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Right direction Don't know Wrong track
Dec. 2016Dec. 2017
Voter Mood:Pessimism Prevails Today
“Do you believe things in Arizona are generally headed in the right direction, or do you think things are pretty much headed off on the wrong track?” (Q1)
Republicans are optimistic, but Democrats are widely pessimistic and Independents/others are divided. Note gender gap: women are pessimistic but men are optimistic.
6
40%
19%
12%
7%
6%
3%
3%
1%
2%
46%
18%
7%
11%
6%
2%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Education
Illegal immigration
Health care
Jobs and the economy
Government spending too high
Taxes are too high
Government spending too low
Taxes are too low
Transportation
Dec. 2017Dec. 2016
Education is Still Perceived to Be the Biggest Problem Facing Arizona Today; Health Care
Concerns Appear to Be On the Rise
“Which one of the following, in your opinion, is the biggest problem facing the state of Arizona today?” (Q2)
Education Concerns: 2010-2017
• Dec. 2017 40%• Dec. 2016 46%• June 2015 36%• Nov. 2014 27%• Mar. 2014 17%• Mar. 2013 17%• Apr. 2012 19%• Jan. 2011 17%• Sept. 2010 12%
Concern about health care is consistent with sentiment throughout the country due to high visibility of health care reform on the national stage.
NA
NA
7Arizona’s Biggest Problem Today:Key Subgroups (1)
County Gender AgeAll
voters Maricopa Pima Others Men Women18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64 65+
Education 40% 41% 34% 40% 39% 41% 54% 52% 27% 31% 34%Illegal immigration 19% 20% 14% 22% 20% 19% 10% 9% 25% 19% 32%
Health care 12% 12% 17% 9% 9% 14% 9% 13% 14% 15% 10%Jobs and the economy 7% 5% 11% 8% 8% 6% 8% 7% 8% 7% 5%
Government spending is too high
6% 7% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 8% 5% 10% 2%
Taxes are too high 3% 4% 5% 2% 4% 3% 3% 2% 6% 4% 2%
Government spending is too low
3% 3% 1% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 4% 3% 4%
Transportation 2% * 6% 3% 2% 2% 3% -- 1% 3% 2%Taxes are too low 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% * -- -- -- 3% 2%
*Less than one-half of one percent
8
Party Registration Ethnicity
All voters Reps. Dems.Inds./others Caucasians Hispanics Others
Education 40% 30% 49% 42% 39% 46% 40%
Illegal immigration 19% 34% 8% 14% 21% 7% 22%
Health care 12% 10% 15% 10% 12% 15% 9%
Jobs and the economy 7% 5% 9% 7% 7% 11% 5%Government spending is too high 6% 8% 2% 7% 5% 6% 8%
Taxes are too high 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 6%Government spending is too low 3% 1% 5% 3% 3% -- 5%
Transportation 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Taxes are too low 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% --
Arizona’s Biggest Problem Today:Key Subgroups (2)
9Biggest Problem Facing Local Schools:Lack of Funding Tops the List Today
20%
12%
10%
6%
4%
4%
13%
15%
3%
7%
3%
6%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Lack of funding (general)
Low teacher salaries/lack offunding for teacher pay
Funding/funding education/financing (general)
Poor quality of education/loweducational standards/poor
curriculum
Inappropriate/inefficient use offunds
Unqualified/low quality staff/teachers
Dec. 2017Dec. 2016
“What, in your opinion, is the biggest problem facing public schools in your community today?” (Q17)
10Biggest Problem Facing Local Schools: Key Subgroup
Party Registration
All voters Reps. Dems. Inds./othersLack of funding (general) 20% 14% 28% 19%Low teacher salaries/lack of funding for teacher pay 12% 11% 14% 12%
Funding/funding education/financing (general) 10% 8% 13% 10%
Poor quality of education/low educational standards/poor curriculum 6% 6% 4% 7%
Inappropriate/inefficient use of funds 4% 4% 2% 5%
Unqualified/low quality staff/teachers 4% 7% 1% 3%
Education funding is more likely to be a worry among Democrats than Republicans or Independents.
11
Image Ratings of Elected Officials and Education Organizations
12The Arizona Legislature:Key Subgroups
Favorable UnfavorableNo opinion/not aware Net favorable
All voters 28% 45% 28% -17%County
Maricopa 22% 50% 28% -28%Pima 40% 31% 29% +9%Others 32% 40% 27% -8%
Age18-34 29% 29% 42% --35-44 22% 50% 28% -28%45-54 26% 45% 29% -19%55-64 32% 53% 15% -21%65+ 27% 50% 23% -23%
Party RegistrationRepublicans 34% 37% 29% -3%Democrats 19% 58% 22% -39%Inds./others 27% 41% 31% -14%
EthnicityCaucasians 29% 46% 24% -17%Hispanics 22% 44% 34% -22%Others 29% 32% 40% -3%
Favorable, 31%
Favorable, 28%
Unfavorable, 36%
Unfavorable, 45%
No opinion/not aware, 34%
No opinion/not aware, 28%
Dec. 2016
Dec. 2017
13Arizona Department of Education:Key Subgroups
Favorable UnfavorableNo opinion/not aware Net favorable
All voters 23% 61% 16% -38%County
Maricopa 21% 62% 17% -41%Pima 25% 53% 22% -28%Others 26% 62% 12% -36%
Age18-34 25% 55% 20% -30%35-44 21% 64% 16% -43%45-54 19% 62% 19% -43%55-64 25% 64% 11% -39%65+ 23% 61% 16% -38%
Party RegistrationRepublicans 25% 58% 17% -33%Democrats 23% 62% 15% -39%Inds./others 21% 62% 17% -41%
EthnicityCaucasians 22% 60% 18% -38%Hispanics 26% 66% 8% -40%Others 27% 56% 17% -29%
Favorable, 23% Unfavorable, 61% No opinion/not aware, 16%Dec. 2017
14Superintendent Diane Douglas:Key Subgroups
Favorable UnfavorableNo opinion/not aware Net favorable
All voters 13% 34% 52% -21%County
Maricopa 12% 41% 47% -29%Pima 13% 13% 74% --Others 16% 30% 54% -14%
Age18-34 14% 19% 67% -5%35-44 11% 32% 57% -21%45-54 10% 39% 51% -29%55-64 14% 43% 43% -29%65+ 15% 40% 45% -25%
Party RegistrationRepublicans 16% 31% 53% -15%Democrats 9% 43% 47% -34%Inds./others 14% 30% 57% -16%
EthnicityCaucasians 12% 35% 53% -23%Hispanics 16% 31% 53% -15%Others 17% 32% 51% -15%
Favorable, 13% Unfavorable, 34% No opinion/not aware, 52%Dec. 2017
15Arizona State Board for Education:Key Subgroups
Favorable UnfavorableNo opinion/not aware Net favorable
All voters 19% 54% 27% -35%County
Maricopa 19% 55% 26% -36%Pima 14% 47% 40% -33%Others 22% 57% 21% -35%
Age18-34 20% 57% 23% -37%35-44 23% 50% 27% -27%45-54 14% 55% 31% -41%55-64 20% 57% 22% -37%65+ 18% 50% 32% -32%
Party RegistrationRepublicans 22% 51% 27% -29%Democrats 20% 51% 28% -31%Inds./others 15% 60% 25% -45%
EthnicityCaucasians 18% 53% 30% -35%Hispanics 20% 62% 18% -42%Others 26% 51% 23% -25%
Favorable, 19% Unfavorable, 54% No opinion/not aware, 26%Dec. 2017
16
Current Perceptions of Arizona Public Schools
17Current Perceptions of Arizona
Public Schools
22%
30%
40%
17%
35%
41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
A/B C D/Fail
Dec. 2016
Dec. 2017
Arizona’s Public Schools (Q15)
Public Schools in Your Community (Q16)
41%
26% 25%
36%
31%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
A/B C D/Fail
Dec. 2016
Dec. 2017
“How would you grade… A, B, C, D or Fail?”
18Arizona Public Schools: Key Subgroups
A/B C D/Fail
All voters 17% 35% 41%
Party registration
Republicans 20% 37% 37%
Democrats 20% 30% 41%
Independents/others 13% 37% 46%
Kids/grandkids in school?
No 16% 34% 41%
Yes 19% 36% 41%
19Public Schools in Your Community: Key Subgroups
A/B C D/Fail
All voters 36% 31% 25%
Party registration
Republicans 38% 31% 25%
Democrats 37% 30% 25%
Independents/others 34% 33% 26%
Kids/grandkids in school?
No 32% 33% 24%
Yes 43% 29% 26%
20Grading the Arizona Legislature on Public Schools: Key Subgroups
A/B C D/Fail
All voters 9% 27% 52%
Party registration
Republicans 12% 31% 41%
Democrats 7% 18% 66%
Independents/others 8% 30% 51%
Kids/grandkids in school?
No 10% 26% 49%
Yes 10% 28% 57%
2016 Presidential vote
Yes, Trump 17% 33% 36%
Yes, Clinton 5% 21% 67%
21
6%
27%
59%
8%5%
27%
57%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Better About the same Worse Don’t know
Dec. 2016Dec. 2017
Arizona Public Schools vs. Most Other States: Worse
“In general, do you believe most public schools in Arizona are better, about the same or worse than public schools in most other states?” (Q21)
There is consensus agreement among voters in most subgroups that Arizona’s public schools are worse than public schools in most other states.
22
4%
20%
48%
27%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Higher About the same Lower Don't know
Arizona Public Schools vs. Most Other States on 3rd Grade Reading Levels:
Nearly Half Say AZ is Worse“To the best of your knowledge, are third grade reading levels in Arizona higher, about the same or lower than third
grade reading levels in most other states?” (Q22)
23
Funding Arizona Public Schools and Prop. 301
24
“Do you think Arizona public schools currently have the money needed to provide students with a quality education, or do you think the state should be spending more on schools?” (Q20)
Public School Funding: Does Arizona Have Enough Money or Should State Spend
More?
Wide majorities of voters throughout the state in all subgroups believe the state should be spending more on schools, including Republicans.
18%
6%
77%
17%
5%
78%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Public schools have the money needed
Don't know State should be spending more
Dec. 2016
Dec. 2017
25
39%
24%
63%
4%
33%
11%
22%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Definitely for
Probably for Total for Don't know Total against
Probably against
Definitely against
Majority Continues to Support Higher Taxes to Fund Arizona Public Schools
“Would you vote for or against increasing taxes in order to provide additional funding for Arizona’s public schools?” (Q23)
26Voter Support for Higher Taxes to Fund Arizona Public Schools: Key Subgroups
For Don’t know Against Net forAll voters 63% 4% 33% +30%
County
Maricopa 64% 3% 33% +31%
Pima 62% 3% 35% +27%
Others 61% 6% 33% +28%
GOP/philosophy
Very Conservative Republicans 41% 3% 55% -14%
Somewhat Conservative Republicans 42% 11% 46% -4%
Moderate/Liberal Republicans 67% 2% 31% +36%
Kids/grandkids in school?
No 63% 4% 33% +30%
Yes 63% 3% 34% +29%
Even among GOP voters, half support higher taxes for public schools.
27
31%
15%
12%
8%
8%
5%
3%
1%
14%
6%
0% 20% 40%
Liquor tax*
Sales tax
Soda tax
Property tax
Income tax
Real estate tax
Gas tax
Utility tax
No tax increases
Other/don't know
Preferred Tax Increase for Public School Funding
“Which one of the following taxes would you prefer to see increase in order to provide additional funding for public schools?” (Q24)
*Liquor tax was not an availableoption in the Dec. 2016 survey.
There is partisan agreement on most taxes, with the exception that Democrats prefer income tax much more than Republicans or Independents.
28
“Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a state official who voted to increase taxes in order to provide additional funding for public schools in Arizona?” (Q25)
Most Voters are Positive About a State Official Who Supports Tax Increases to Fund Schools
Wide majorities of Democrats (79%) and Independents/others (65%) are more likely to vote for a state official supporting a tax increase. Very Conservative Republicans are marginally negative, somewhat Conservative
Republicans are marginally positive, but a majority of Moderate/Liberal Republicans are positive.
33% 31%
64%
10%
26%
9%
17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Much more likely
Somewhat more likely
Total more likely
Don't know Total less likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
29
“Here are what two people are saying about additional funding for public schools in Arizona. Smith supports increasing taxes to provide additional funding for public schools, so long as the revenue generated from the tax is targeted and spent in a way that is accountable to taxpayers. Jones says funding public
schools is important, but he would not support raising taxes in order to provide additional funding. He says the money should be found elsewhere in the state’s budget. Which of these views comes closest to your own?” (Q26)
Majority Supports Increasing Taxes for Education if Spending is Accountable to Taxpayers
While Democrats and Independents widely support increasing taxes (Smith), Republicans are divided on this issue (45% Smith/45% Jones).
36%
20%
56%
8%
36%
11%
25%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Strongly Smith
Smith Total Smith Don't know Total Jones Jones Strongly Jones
30Arizonans Favor Renewing
Prop. 301“As you may know, in the year 2000, Arizona voters approved Proposition 301, raising the state sales tax from 5
cents to 5.6 cents, with the increased funds dedicated to public schools, including teacher pay, university research and community colleges. Currently Prop 301 provides $660 million to schools each year. That six tenths of a cent
sales tax increase expires in June 2021. If a proposal to renew Prop 301 was on the ballot today, would you vote to continue the six tenths of a cent sales tax for public schools or would you vote to end the six tenths of a cent sales
tax for public schools?” (Q27)
Majorities among all key demographic subgroups would renew Prop 301.
56%
21%
77%
4%
19%
6%
14%
56%
20%
76%
3%
20%
5%
15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Definitely vote to
continue
Probably vote to
continue
Total continue
Don’t know
Total end
Probably vote to end
Definitely vote to end
Dec. 2016
Dec. 2017
31Arizonans Favor Renewing Prop. 301: Key Subgroups
Continue Don't know End Net continueAll voters 76% 3% 20% +56%County
Maricopa 77% 4% 19% +58%Pima 74% -- 26% +48%Others 76% 4% 20% +56%
Party registrationRepublicans 66% 4% 30% +36%Democrats 86% 2% 12% +74%Independents/others 79% 4% 17% +62%
GOP/philosophy
Very Conservative Republicans 58% 3% 39% +19%Somewhat Conservative Republicans 69% 2% 29% +40%Moderate/Liberal Republicans 77% 5% 19% +58%
32
65%
5%
30%
64%
4%
31%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Total for
one cent
Don’t know
Total against one cent
Dec. 2016Dec. 2017
Support for Increases in Sales Tax Beyond 6/10ths of a Cent
61%
5%
34%
50%
6%
43%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Total for
1.6 cents
Don’t know
Total against 1.6 cents
Dec. 2016Dec. 2017
“If the proposed renewal of the Prop. 301 sales tax increased the sales tax from six-tenths of a cent to one cent in order to
provide additional funding for public schools, would you vote for or against it knowing that the sales tax would be four-tenths of
a cent higher than it is now?” (Q28)
“Another proposal that would renew the Prop 301 sales tax for schools would increase the Prop 301 sales tax to one point six
cents instead of six tenths of a cent - a sales tax increase of one cent. If there was an election today, would you vote for or
against extending and increasing the sales tax to one point six cents to provide additional funding for public schools?” (Q29)*
*Question language in 2017 did not include the phrase “…to restore $1 billion per year that was cut from public schools during the recession.”
33Prop. 301 One Cent Increase: Key Subgroups
Forone cent Don’t know
Against one cent
Net forone cent
All voters 64% 4% 31% +33%Party registration
Republicans 54% 4% 42% +12%Democrats 76% 6% 18% +58%Independents/others 66% 3% 31% +35%
GOP/philosophyVery Conservative Republicans 51% 3% 46% +5%
Somewhat Conservative Republicans 44% 7% 49% -5%
Moderate/Liberal Republicans 70% 2% 28% +42%
34Prop. 301 1.6 Cent Increase: Key Subgroups
For1.6 cents Don’t know
Against 1.6 cents
Net for1.6 cents
All voters 50% 6% 43% +7%Party registration
Republicans 40% 5% 55% -15%Democrats 60% 8% 31% +29%Independents/others 52% 7% 42% +10%
GOP/philosophy
Very Conservative Republicans 28% 6% 65% -37%
Somewhat Conservative Republicans 35% 2% 62% -27%
Moderate/Liberal Republicans 60% 5% 35% +25%
35
ELL Reform
36Seven-in-Ten Support ELL Reform“Current law requires students for whom English is not their primary language, known as English Language Learners, or ELL, to participate in a 4-hour sheltered English immersion block, where they spend 4 hours a day in classrooms where only English is spoken. Would you favor or oppose changing Arizona’s ELL requirements to allow local school
districts and charter schools the flexibility to adopt a different program to teach children English faster?” (Q30)
ELL reform finds majority support among all subgroups, including Republicans.
41%
31%
72%
13% 15%
8% 8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Strongly favor
Somewhat favor
Total favor Don't know Total oppose
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
37
81%
6%12%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Favor Don't know Oppose
Strong Support for Teaching English Faster
78%
10% 12%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
More likely Don't know Less likely
“Studies have also shown that the graduation rate of English Language Learners, or ELL, in Arizona is one of the lowest in the country. State
data also shows that under the state’s current ELL teaching requirements, Arizona students are not learning English. Recently
released statewide test scores showed that two-thirds of all Arizona schoolchildren learning English failed the testing. Currently, over
80,000 students are not proficient in the English language. Would you favor or oppose changing Arizona’s ELL requirements to allow local school districts and charter schools the flexibility to adopt their own
high-quality programs to teach children English faster?” (Q31)
After hearing more about this issue, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate who wants to ensure that taxpayer dollars
are being used efficiently to provide non-native English speakers a high-quality program to teach them English faster – which would
include modernizing the 4-hour sheltered English immersion block?” (Q32)
38
Early Literacy
39Perceptions of Current State
Investment Levels in Early Literacy“This year, an $8 million grant was provided to targeted support for schools with struggling students, to increase reading skills. Next year that grant could increase to $12 million, or about $40 for each student in grades 1-3. Do
you think that the state should spend more than $12 million to increase reading skills, less than $12 million or is $12 million about the right amount?” (Q33)
24%
14%
39%
10%
34%
17%
0%
20%
40%
A lot more A little more Total more Less About the right amount
Don't know
40Perceptions of Current State Investment Levels in Early Literacy: Key Subgroups
More LessAbout the
right amountDon't know
Net more over less
All voters 39% 10% 34% 17% +29%County
Maricopa 40% 11% 31% 18% +29%Pima 31% 15% 37% 17% +16%Others 40% 6% 41% 13% +34%
Age18-34 43% 5% 40% 12% +38%35-44 48% 9% 29% 14% +39%45-54 42% 12% 34% 11% +30%55-64 35% 17% 29% 19% +18%65+ 31% 9% 36% 23% +22%
Party RegistrationRepublicans 27% 14% 44% 15% +13%Democrats 48% 3% 28% 21% +45%Inds./others 43% 12% 30% 14% +31%
Tax Increase for Public Schools
For 48% 2% 34% 16% +46%Don’t know 25% -- 28% 47% +25%Against 23% 27% 37% 14% -4%