arkansas - ncci.com · kids’ chance of arkansas was incorporated in 2001 with the mission of...

© Copyright 2020 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

ArkansasJune 24, 2020

[email protected]

[email protected]

© Copyright 2020 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2

Agenda

Arkansas Residual Market

Legislative Updates

Arkansas Workers Compensation System01

03

02

04

Kids’ Chance of Arkansas05

Countrywide and Arkansas Labor Markets


Arkansas Workers Compensation System


Direct written premium decreased in the latest year

The combined ratio continues to show favorable results

Lost-time claim frequency declined in the latest year

4

Arkansas Workers Compensation System—An Overview


p PreliminarySource: NAIC’s Annual Statement data

Arkansas Premium VolumeDirect Written Premium in $ Millions

249238

0

100

200

300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019p

Calendar Year


p Preliminary Based on data through 12/31/2018

Impact of Discounting on Workers Compensation Premium in Arkansas

10.6

-10

0

10

20

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18p

Policy Year


Sources: NCCI’s financial data through 12/31/2018 and NAIC’s Annual Statement data

Arkansas Combined Ratios

86 83

100

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Accident Year


50 46

36 36

0 0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Accident Year

Dividends

8

Sources: NCCI’s financial data through 12/31/2018 and NAIC’s Annual Statement data

Arkansas Combined Ratios by Component

Loss Ratio

Underwriting Expense Ratio


Based on NCCI’s financial data through 12/31/2018, on-leveled and developed to ultimate, with premium adjusted to common wage level

Arkansas Change in Claim FrequencyPercent Change in Lost-Time Claims, per $ Million of On-Leveled Premium

6.6

-10.2

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cumulative Change of –48.7%(2003–2017)

Policy Year


16.9 17.1

+1.8% +1.2%

0

10

20

30

40

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Year

10

Based on NCCI’s financial data through 12/31/2018, on-leveled and developed to ultimate

Arkansas Average Indemnity Claim SeverityLost-Time Claim Severity in $ Thousands

Cumulative Change of +31.3%(2003–2017)


29.6 28.2

+17.6%-4.9%

0

10

20

30

40

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Year

11

Based on NCCI’s financial data through 12/31/2018, on-leveled and developed to ultimate

Arkansas Average Medical Claim SeverityLost-Time Claim Severity in $ Thousands

Cumulative Change of +35.0%(2003–2017)


-4.3%

-8.4%

-15.4%

-3.4%

-9.4%

-1.6%

-10.6%

-14.9%

-4.2%

-10.8%

7/1/2016 7/1/2017 7/1/2018 7/1/2019 7/1/2020

12

Arkansas Filing ActivityVoluntary Loss Cost and Assigned Risk Rate Changes


Arkansas July 1, 2020 Loss Cost Filing

Change in Trend:

Change in Experience:

Change in Benefits:

Change in Loss-based Expenses:

Overall Loss Cost Level Change:

–9.3%

–0.6%

+0.1%

+0.4%

–9.4%


-8.5%

-10.7%-9.9% -9.4% -9.0% -9.4%

Manufacturing Contracting Office & Clerical Goods & Services Miscellaneous Overall

14

Arkansas July 1, 2020 Loss Cost FilingAverage Changes by Industry Group


Reflects the most recent experience filing in each jurisdiction as of 5/15/2020 Due to the timing of the individual loss cost/rate filings, the figures shown may include changes from prior filing seasons

Current NCCI Voluntary Market Loss Cost/Rate Level ChangesExcludes Law-Only Filings

-13.7

-9.4

0.0

AK RI UT VT AZ VA SC NC MS DC SD NH AR KY NM CO OR LA MT FL TN NE MD TX IN ID GA IL OK KS AL NV IA CT MOWV HI ME

Approved Pending

(Approved)


Reflects the most recent experience filing in each jurisdiction as of 5/15/2020 Due to the timing of the individual loss cost/rate filings, the figures shown may include changes from prior filing seasons

Current Voluntary Market Loss Cost/Rate ChangesNearby States

-10.1%

-9.4%

-9.0%

-8.4%

-7.1%

-6.7%

-5.1%

-3.4%

-1.6%

Mississippi

Arkansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Tennessee

Texas

Oklahoma

Alabama

Missouri

3/1/2020

7/1/2020

10/1/2019

5/1/2020

3/1/2020

7/1/2020

1/1/2020

3/1/2020

1/1/2020


0.51

0.73

0.98

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

AR LA MO MS OK TN TX Region CW

17

Based on approved rates and loss costs in various jurisdictions from filings using data valued as of 12/31/2018

Average Voluntary Pure Loss Costs Using Arkansas Payroll Distribution


Arkansas Residual Market


Plan DataIncludes 22 NCCI Plan Administration States

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasConnecticutDCGeorgiaIdahoIllinoisIowaKansas

MississippiNevadaNew HampshireNew MexicoOregonSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeVermontVirginiaWest Virginia

20© Copyright 2020 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Assigned Risk Plan Market Share Percentage by StateAs of 12/31/2019*

*PreliminaryMarket share percentages are from NCCI’s 2019 Residual Market Management Summary

8.9

AK AR VT GA TN NV NH KS VA SC CT AZ WV OR IA NM IL MS AL DC SD ID

5.4%


10.1 9.8 9.610.6

8.9

6.3 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Calendar Year*PreliminaryMarket share percentages are from NCCI’s 2019 Residual Market Management Summary

Arkansas Residual Market Share Compared to All Plan States Market SharePlan Premium as a Percentage of Direct Written Premium


Arkansas Residual Market Plan PremiumAs of 12/31/2019

24.021.6

23.1 22.720.6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Policy Year

5-Year Average = $22.4 M

$ Millions

Premium data is on a policy year basis as reported to NCCI, for policies effective from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2019, including prorated cancellations, with all policies’ premium associated with the dominant state


Arkansas Residual Market Policy CountsAs of 12/31/2019

6,754

7,076

6,803 6,797

6,699

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Policy Year

5-Year Average = 6,826 policies

Policy data is on a policy year basis as reported to NCCI, for policies effective from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2019, including prorated cancellations, with all policies’ premium associated with the dominant state


Arkansas Residual Market Policy Information

$ 3,078

72.9%% of RM Policies Under

$2,500

Average RM Policy Size

23.8%% of RM Premium Generated

by Policies Under $2,500

Premium and policy data is on a policy year basis as reported to NCCI, for policies effective from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2019, including prorated cancellations, with all policies’ premium associated with the dominant state


Hazard Groups F and G Account for 54% of the Residual Market Premium

31.0

4.8

41.7

11.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

A B C D E F G

% of Premium

Hazard Groups

2019 AR Total Market 2019 AR Residual Market

Premium data is on a policy year basis as reported to NCCI, for policies effective from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2019, including prorated cancellations, with all policies’ premium associated with the dominant state


Arkansas Residual Market Reinsurance Pool Net Operating ResultsEstimated Net Operating Gains and Losses Projected to Ultimate as of 12/31/2019

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Millions

Policy Year

Operating Gain/(Loss) 5-Year Average Result = $1.34M

From NCCI’s Residual Market Quarterly Results—the financial statement presentation that reflects the excess of earned premium over incurred losses, less all operating expenses, plus all investment income in this state


Arkansas Reinsurance Pool’s Combined Ratios Over the Past Five YearsEstimated Policy Year Combined Ratios as of 12/31/2019

0.72 0.73

0.91

1.30

1.12

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Policy Year

PY Combined Ratio 5-Year Aggregate Combined Ratio = 0.96

From NCCI’s Residual Market Quarterly Results—equals [1.0 — Residual Market Operating Gain (Loss)] / Pool Written Premium


Overall decreasing premium and policy count

Relatively high residual market share

Residual market has been self-funded over the past five years

Arkansas

Consistent Results

QualityService Alignment

Residual Market

28


Countrywide and Arkansas Labor Markets


Annual percentage change; employment is for Total Private IndustryFrequency of observation: annual; 2017–2019Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Change in Private EmploymentPrivate Employment Growth Was Below Average

+1.6%

+1.8%

+1.4%

+1.0% +1.0%

+0.8%

2017 2018 2019

United States Arkansas


Annual percentage change; wages are for Total Private IndustryFrequency of observation: annual; 2017–2019Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Change in Average Weekly WagesWage Growth Was Comparable to the National Average

+3.4% +3.4%+3.5%

+3.4%

+2.4%

+3.6%

2017 2018 2019



AWW = Average Weekly Wage2019 annual percentage changeSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Private Industry Payroll Growth Decomposition2019 Payroll Growth Was Below the National Average

+1.4%+0.8%

+3.5%

+3.6%

+5.0%

+4.4%

Employment

AWW

Payroll



Employment numbers are rounded to the nearest hundred2019 annual percentage change; frequency of observation: annualSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Change in Employment by SectorEmployment Increased in Most Sectors in the Past Year

AR +1.8 121,000 12 +2,200US +1.5AR +3.3 53,000 5 +1,700US +3.1AR +1.0 162,000 16 +1,600US +1.0AR +0.8 188,000 18 +1,500US +2.1AR +2.5 52,000 5 +1,300US +1.6AR +1.2 25,000 2 +300US +1.1AR +0.3 16,000 2 +100US +0.1AR +0.4 11,000 1 +0US +1.2AR +0.0 249,000 24 +0US +0.4AR –0.6 146,000 14 –900US +1.7Professional and business services

Natural resources and mining

Information

Trade, transportation, and utilities

Financial activities

Other services

Economic Sector

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Manufacturing

Education and health services

1-Year ChangeAnnual Percent Change, 2019

Sector Size

Share%


–5% 0 +5% +10%

Payroll Growth

–5% 0 +5% +10%

AWW Growth

34

AWW = Average Weekly Wage2019 annual percentage change; sectors are in descending order by the volume of state payroll amountsSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Payroll Growth Decomposition by Sector

–5% 0 +5% +10%

Trade, transportation, and utilities

Education and health services

Manufacturing

Professional and business services

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Financial activities

Other services

Natural resources and mining

Information

Employment Growth ≈+


Employment growth was below the US rate Employment growth in the Leisure and Hospitality, Construction,

and Financial Activities sectors outpaced the national average

Employment was flat in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities and declined in Professional and Business Services

Payroll increased in Arkansas from increases in employment The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector has the largest

payroll

Payrolls expanded across all economic sectors

35

Arkansas Labor Market


Headline Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted Frequency of observation: monthly; latest available data point: April 2020Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Headline Unemployment RateIncreases in 2020 Reflect the Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic

United States: 14.7%

Arkansas: 10.2%

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2019

Jan2020

Feb Mar Apr


Legislative Updates—Federal and State


Legislative Updates

NCCI identifies and monitors relevant workers compensation-related bills in all jurisdictions and the federal government. Arkansas held a “Fiscal-Only” session in 2020.

Legislative activity for all states is available here.

Federal legislative activity is available here.

Information specifically related to COVID-19 and workers compensation is available in the NCCI COVID-19 Resource Center here.

http://www.ncci.com/Articles/Pages/II_LegislativeActivity.aspx

http://www.ncci.com/Articles/Pages/II_LegislativeAnalysisState_FEDERAL.aspx

http://www.ncci.com/Articles/Pages/Covid-19.aspx


Kids’ Chance of Arkansas


NCCI is a proud partner of Kids’ Chance. NCCI continues to educate and bring awareness about Kids’ Chance through our events.

Kids’ Chance makes a difference in the lives of children affected by a parent’s workplace injury or death.

Kids’ Chance of Arkansas was incorporated in 2001 with the mission of providing scholarships to the dependents of deceased and permanently totally disabled workers with compensable Arkansas workers’ compensation claims.

Kids’ Chance brings together employers, insurers, employee groups and others involved in workers’ compensation matters to provide assistance for education to those qualifying dependent children.

Kids’ Chance of Arkansas


Chuck McCauley, President

MailPO Box 250249

Little Rock, AR 72225-0249

Phone866-880-8444

Websitewww.kidschancear.org

41

http://www.kidschancear.org/


ArkansasJune 24, 2020

[email protected]

[email protected]


Supplemental Information


Regional states are LA, MO, MS, OK, TN, and TXBased on NCCI’s financial data

Total Benefit Costs in Arkansas Indemnity vs. Medical

35%

43%

42%

65%

57%

58%


Based on NCCI’s financial data through 12/31/2018 at current benefit level and developed to ultimate

Arkansas Loss RatiosIndemnity vs. Medical

0.36

0.60

0.30

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Year


Based on NCCI’s financial data through 12/31/2018, on-leveled and developed to ultimate, with premium adjusted to common wage level

Arkansas Claim FrequencyLost-Time Claims, per $ Million of On-Leveled Premium

21.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Year


Based on NCCI’s financial data through 12/31/2018 for lost-time claims at current benefit level and developed to ultimate

Arkansas Average Indemnity Claim SeverityAdjusted to Common Wage Level vs. Actual, in $ Thousands

17.1

10

20

30

40

50

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Year


Based on NCCI’s financial data through 12/31/2018 for lost-time claims at current benefit level and developed to ultimate

Arkansas Average Medical Claim SeverityAdjusted to Common Wage Level vs. Actual, in $ Thousands

28.2

10

20

30

40

50

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Policy Year


Based on approved rates and loss costs in various jurisdictions from filings using data valued as of 12/31/2018

Average Voluntary Pure Loss Costs Using Arkansas Payroll Distribution

0.51

0.98

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

TX AR WV IN UT

TN NC KS AZ SD DC OR

MS

NV KY VA CO AL NH

NM NE

MD OK FL RI SC AK MT IA

MO ID LA HI ME

GA IL VT CT CW


Based on NCCI’s Statistical Plan data

Arkansas Average Claim FrequencyLost-Time vs. Medical Only, per 100,000 Workers

2,415

1,969

2,793

2,624

2,664

3,198

2,027

2,366

2,869

466 1,949AR

LA

MO

MS

OK

TN

TX

Region

CW


17.1

AR LA MO MS OK TN TX*

51

*UnlimitedBased on NCCI’s financial data for lost-time claims at current benefit level and developed to ultimate, with premium adjusted to common wage level

Average Indemnity Claim Severity in the Regionin $ Thousands


28.2

AR LA MO MS OK TN TX*

52

*UnlimitedBased on NCCI’s financial data for lost-time claims at current benefit level and developed to ultimate, with premium adjusted to common wage level

Average Medical Claim Severity in the Regionin $ Thousands


Regional states are LA, MO, MS, OK, TN, and TXBased on NCCI’s Statistical Plan data for jurisdiction/claim type combinations for which three or more cases exist

Arkansas Distribution of Claims by Injury Type

81%

75%

76%

12%

15%

15%

7%

10%

9%

0%

0%

0%

Medical Only Temporary Total Permanent Partial Fatal & Permanent Total



Arkansas Indemnity Loss Distribution by Injury Type

33%

30%

33%

56%

52%

57%

4%

4%

4%

7%

14%

6%

Temporary Total Permanent Partial Permanent Total Fatal



Arkansas Medical Loss Distribution by Injury Type

15%

12%

13%

25%

28%

30%

52%

51%

48%

7%

8%

8%

1%

1%

1%

Medical Only Temporary Total Permanent Partial Permanent Total Fatal


Glossary


Active Claim—A workers compensation claim for which there is at least one medical service provided during that service year.

Ambulatory Surgical Center (ASC)—A state-licensed facility that is used mainly to perform outpatient surgery, has a staff of physicians, has continuous physician and nursing care, and does not provide for overnight stays. An ASC can bill for facility fees much like a hospital, but generally has a separate fee schedule.

Assigned Risk Adjustment Program (ARAP)—An assigned risk market program that surcharges residual market risks based on the magnitude of their experience rating modification.

Calendar-Accident Year (CAY)—The accumulation of loss data on all accidents with the date of occurrence falling within a given calendar year. The premium figure is the same as that used in calendar year experience.

57

Glossary


Calendar Year (CY)—Experience of earned premium and loss transactions occurring within the calendar year beginning January 1, irrespective of the contractual dates of the policies to which the transactions relate and the dates of the accidents.

Claim Frequency—The number of claims per unit of exposure; for example, the number of claims per million dollars of premium or per 100 workers.

Claim Severity—The average cost of a claim. Severity is calculated by dividing total losses by the total number of claims.

Combined Ratio—The sum of the (1) loss ratio, (2) expense ratio, and (3) dividend ratio for a given time period.

Detailed Claim Information (DCI)—An NCCI Call that collects detailed information on an individual workers compensation lost-time claim basis, such as type of injury, whether or not an attorney was involved, and the timing of the claim’s report to the carrier.

58

Glossary


Diagnosis Groups—Based on ICD-10 codes; groups based on similar injuries and parts of body.

Direct Written Premium (DWP)—The gross premium income adjusted for additional or return premiums but excluding any reinsurance premiums.

Drugs—Includes any data reported by a National Drug Code (NDC). Also included are data for revenue codes, the Healthcare Common Procedure Code System (HCPCS), and other state-specific codes that represent drugs.

Durable Medical Equipment—Equipment that is primarily and customarily used to serve a medical purpose, can withstand repeated use, could normally be rented and used by successive patients, is appropriate for use in the home, and is not generally useful to a person in the absence of an illness or injury.

59

Glossary


Hospital Inpatient Service—Services for a patient who is admitted to a hospital for treatment that requires at least one overnight stay (more than 24 hours in a hospital). Payment for a hospital inpatient service is limited to the payment made for the facility cost.

Hospital Inpatient Stay—A hospital admission of a patient requiring hospitalization of at least one 24-hour period.

Hospital Outpatient Service—Any type of medical or surgical care performed at a hospital that is not expected to result in an overnight hospital stay (less than 24 hours in a hospital). Payment for a hospital outpatient service is limited to the payment made for the facility cost.

Indemnity Benefits—Payments by an insurance company to cover an injured worker’s time lost from work. These benefits are also referred to as “wage replacement” benefits.

Loss Ratio—The ratio of losses to premium for a given time period.

60

Glossary


Lost-Time (LT) Claims—Claims resulting in indemnity benefits (and usually medical benefits) being paid to, or on behalf of, the injured worker for time lost from work.

Medical Data Call—Captures transaction-level detail for medical billings that were processed on or after July 1, 2010. All medical transactions with the jurisdiction state in any applicable Medical Data Call state are reportable. This includes all workers compensation claims, including medical-only claims.

Medical-Only Claims—Claims resulting in only medical benefits being paid on behalf of an injured worker.

Net Written Premium (NWP)—The gross premium income adjusted for additional or return premiums; includes any additions for reinsurance assumed and any deductions for reinsurance ceded.

61

Glossary


Permanent Partial (PP)—A disability that is permanent but does not involve a total inability to work. The specific definition and associated workers compensation benefits are defined by statute and vary by jurisdiction.

Policy Year (PY)—The year of the effective date of the policy. Policy year financial results summarize experience for all policies with effective dates in a given calendar year period.

Prescription Count—Number of drug prescriptions, where refills are counted separately.

Schedule Rating—A debit and credit plan that recognizes variations in the hazard-causing features of an individual risk.

Service Year—A loss accounting term for experience that is summarized by the calendar year in which a medical service was provided.

62

Glossary


Surgery Visit—A visit in which at least one surgery procedure is performed based on the reported procedure code.

Take-Out Credit Program—An assigned risk program that encourages carriers to write current residual market risks in the competitive voluntary marketplace.

Temporary Total (TT)—A disability that totally disables a worker for a temporary period of time.

Units—The number of units of service performed or the quantity of drugs dispensed. For Paid Procedure Codes related to medications, the quantity/units depend on the type of drug:

For tablets, capsules, suppositories, and nonfilled syringes, units represent the actual number of the drug provided. For example, a bottle of 30 pills would have 30 units.

63

Glossary


For liquids, suspensions, solutions, creams, ointments, and bulk powders that are dispensed in standard packages, the units are specified by the procedure code. For example, a cream is dispensed in a standard tube, which is defined as a single unit.

For liquids, suspensions, solutions, creams, ointments, and bulk powders that are not dispensed in standard packages, the number of units is the amount provided in its standard unit of measurement (e.g., milliliters, grams, ounces). For example, codeine cough syrup dispensed by a pharmacist into a four-ounce bottle would be reported as four units.

Visit—Any hospital outpatient or ASC service or set of services provided to a claimant on a specific date. At any visit, more than one procedure may be performed, and any claimant may have more than one visit.

64

Glossary


Appendix


Financial Aggregate Calls Used for aggregate ratemaking

Statistical Plan for Workers Compensation and Employers Liability Insurance (Statistical Plan) Used for class ratemaking

Detailed Claim Information In-depth sample of lost-time claims

Policy Data Policy declaration page information

NCCI’s Workers Compensation Resources

66


Collected Annually Policy and calendar-accident year basis

Statewide and assigned risk data

Premiums, Losses, and Claim Counts Evaluated as of December 31

Purpose Basis for overall aggregate rate indication

Research

Financial Aggregate Calls

67


Policy Year Financial Aggregate Data

1/1/2017 12/31/20171/1/2016 1/1/2020 12/31/2020

Policy Expiration Date

Policy Effective Date

Policy Year2016

Policy Year2017

Policy Year2020

68


Calendar-Accident Year Financial Aggregate Data

1/1/2018 12/31/20181/1/2017 1/1/2021 12/31/2021

Policy Expiration Date

Policy Effective Date

Calendar-Accident

Year2017

Calendar-Accident

Year2018

Calendar-Accident

Year2021

69


Experience by Policy Detail Exposure, premium, and experience rating modifications

Individual claims by injury type

Purposes Classification relativities

Experience Rating Plan

Research

Statistical Plan for Workers Compensation and Employers Liability Insurance (Statistical Plan) Data

70


Valuation of Statistical Plan Data

PolicyEffective

18 Months

1stReport

Valuation

2ndReport

Valuation

3rdReport

Valuation

4thReport

Valuation

5thReport

Valuation

30 Months42 Months

54 Months66 Months

71

arkansas - ncci.com · kids’ chance of arkansas was incorporated in 2001 with the mission of...

Documents