arkansas power point presentation 2010

© 2010 by David T. Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org1

The American Church Research Project

The State of the Church

in Arkansas

2000-2009



In 1996,

polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group.

For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect.

Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.



The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on

two key questions:

“How Many People Really Attend Church in Arkansas Every Week?”

“Is the Christian Church Going Forward or Backwards in Influence in Arkansas?”

As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Arkansas will begin to take shape.



This Study

uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2009. Arkansas has an attendance percentage (24.7%) that is much higher than the average for the nation (17.0%).



2009 Church AttendancePercentage by State

3.1%UT

10.0%ME

9.8%ID

9.8%NV

10.4%NH

11.1%VT

11.5%MA

12.1%WY

12.4%OR

12.7%AK

12.9%WA

13.2%AZ

13.2%NY

13.5%NJ

13.8%CO

14.0%FL

13.0%HI

14.5%CT

14.6%CA

14.6%DE15.3%

WV

15.5%NM

16.0%MT

16.1%RI

16.4%MD17.1%

VA

17.2%TX

17.5%PA

18.1%OH

18.3%IL

18.9%MI

19.5%MO

19.7%WI

20.0%IN

20.2%MN

20.3%NC

20.7%KY

20.8%KS

20.8%OK

20.9%NE

21.3%GA

21.8%SC

22.2%TN

22.2%IA

23.5%SD

24.7%AR

25.2%MS

25.2%ND

25.8%LA

25.9%AL

0.0% to 13.2%

13.2% to 17.1%

17.1% to 20.8%

20.8% to 25.9%



The Next 3 Maps

show the population numbers for Arkansas using the 2010 Census numbers. The first map shows the population of Arkansas in 1990, 2000 and 2010. The second map shows the population growth percentage from 1990 – 2000 and 2000 - 2010. The third map shows numeric growth from 2000 - 2010.



2,350,725

2,673,386

2,915,918

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1990 2000 2010

Arkansas Population Growth 1990, 2000, 2010


13.7%

9.1%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1990 - 2000 2000 - 2010

Arkansas Population Growth Percentage 1990 - 2000 & 2000 - 2010



322,661

242,532

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1990 - 2000 2000 - 2010

Arkansas Population Growth 1990 - 2000 & 2000 - 2010



The Next 2 Maps

show the population numbers for each county in Arkansas. The first map shows the population size of each county in 2008. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 2000 - 2008.



Arkansas 2008 Population by County

5435Calhoun

7439Woodruff

7705Lafayette

8048Sebastian

8144Dallas

8298Newton

8518Monroe

8580Prairie

8665Cleveland

9047Montgomery

9157Nevada

10317Perry

10616Pike

10782Lee

11248Searcy

11688Fulton

11906Bradley

11993Chicot

12090Stone

12807Little River

12992Izard

13538Desha

13609Lincoln

14143Howard

15651Madison

15845Clay

16519Sharp

16575Van Buren

16774Marion

16861Lawrence

16936Jackson

17690Grant

17866St Francis

18134Randolph

18185Franklin

18670Drew

18808Cross

19236Arkansas

20257Polk

20755Conway

21603Phillips

21976Yell

22233Ashley

22567Logan

22900Hempstead

23888Clark

24146Columbia

24721Poinsett

24851Johnson

25397Cleburne

25770Ouachita

26336Saline

27557Carroll

31909Hot Spring

34641Independence

36881Boone

40684Greene

42115Baxter

43213Union

43226Miller

46808Mississippi

52554Crittenden

59682Crawford

59952Pope

65233Lonoke

74845White

78373Jefferson

92640Craighead

97465Garland

98209Scott

106823Faulkner

122274Sevier

195803Washington

209791Benton

376797Pulaski

0 to 15845

15845 to 25770

25770 to 376798



Arkansas 2000 - 2008 Population Growth or Decline

-17.8%Phillips

-16.3%Monroe

-14.8%Chicot

-14.4%Woodruff

-13.9%Lee

-11.6%Desha

-11.1%Dallas

-10.2%Ouachita

-10.1%Saline

-9.7%Prairie

-9.7%Mississippi

-9.7%Clay

-9.6%Lafayette

-8.0%Ashley

-7.7%Jackson

-7.7%Nevada

-7.0%Arkansas

-6.9%Jefferson

-6.2%Pike

-6.0%Lincoln

-5.9%Little River

-5.6%Columbia

-5.5%Bradley

-5.2%Union

-4.9%Calhoun

-4.6%Lawrence

-4.0%Newton

-3.5%Poinsett

-3.4%Cross

-2.8%Hempstead

-2.7%Sebastian

-2.4%Montgomery

-2.1%Izard

-0.8%Howard

-0.2%Drew

-0.2%Randolph

0.0%Polk

0.3%Fulton

0.3%Logan

0.8%Perry

1.1%Independence

1.4%Cleveland

1.6%Clark

2.1%Conway

2.2%Van Buren

2.4%Searcy

2.5%Franklin

3.1%Crittenden

3.8%Marion

3.9%Yell

4.1%Pulaski

4.2%St Francis

4.9%Sharp

4.9%Stone

5.0%Hot Spring

5.3%Cleburne

5.9%Sevier

6.9%Miller

7.3%Grant

8.3%Boone

8.5%Greene

8.5%Carroll

9.0%Johnson

9.5%Madison

9.5%Baxter

10.0%Pope

10.3%Garland

11.0%White

11.8%Crawford

12.3%Craighead

17.0%Scott

22.8%Lonoke

23.3%Washington

23.6%Faulkner

35.5%Benton

DeclineGrowth



The Next Slide

shows the numeric growth of the four primary ethnicities of Arkansas from 2000 - 2007. The second and third slides show the ethnicity division of Arkansas in 2000 & 2007. The fourth slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group from 2000 to 2007.



40,245

17,898

10,874

52,070

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Anglo African American Asian Hispanic

2000 - 2007 Arkansas Growth in Population by Ethnicity



Arkansas 2000 Population by Ethnicity

Anglo80%

African American16%

Hispanic3%Asian

1% Anglo

African American

Asian

Hispanic



Arkansas 2007 Population by Ethnicity

Anglo78%

African American16%

Hispanic5%Asian

1%Anglo

African American

Asian

Hispanic



-3.6%-1.4%

41.5%

51.2%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Anglo African American Asian Hispanic

Arkansas Growth or Decline in Ethnic Percentage from 2000-2007



The Next Graph

shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Arkansas in 2000, 2000 & 2009. Evangelicals and Catholics have grown in attendance, while the Mainline has declined. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has slowly increased, the population has grown dramatically. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.



504,904

547,048581,222

87,046 86,53078,430

33,219 44,907 54,319

625,412

678,728

714,213

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total

1990, 2000 & 2009 Arkansas Church Attendance

1990

2000

2009



21.5%20.5%20.1%

3.7% 3.2% 2.7%

1.4% 1.7% 1.9%

26.6%25.4%

24.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%


1990, 2000 & 2009 Arkansas Church Attendance Percentage

1990

2000

2009



The Next Graph

is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2009. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Arkansas in 2000 and 2009.



Arkansas Church Percentage in 2009

Evangelical20%

Mainline3%

Absent75%

Catholic2%

Evangelical

Mainline

Catholic

Absent



-1.7%

-19.2%

10.6%

-2.7%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%


2000-2009 Arkansas Church Attendance Percentage Growth or Decline

Evangelical

Mainline

Catholic

Total



The Next 5 Graphs Show

the Growth or Decline of Attendance at Evangelical, Mainline, Catholic and All Churches in Arkansas between 2000 and 2009.



Percentage of Population Attending Christian Churches in Arkansason any Given Weekend 2000 - 2009

20.5% 20.5% 20.6% 20.6% 20.6% 20.4% 20.3% 20.3% 20.1% 20.1%

3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7%

1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%

25.5% 25.5% 25.4% 25.2% 25.1% 25.0% 24.7% 24.7%25.4% 25.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Evangelical

Mainline

Catholic

Total



20.5% 20.5% 20.6% 20.6% 20.6% 20.4% 20.3% 20.3% 20.1% 20.1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Arkansas Evangelical Attendance Percentage 2000-2009



3.2% 3.2%3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

2.9%2.8% 2.7%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Arkansas Mainline Attendance Percentage 2000-2009



1.7% 1.7%1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Arkansas Catholic Attendance Percentage 2000-2009



25.4% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5% 25.4% 25.2% 25.1% 25.0% 24.7% 24.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Arkansas Church Attendance Percentage 2000-2009




the Growth or Decline of the Percentage of Attendance at the Evangelical, Mainline, Catholic and All Churches between 2002 and 2009.



0.1%

-0.1%

-0.8%

-0.3%

-0.2%

-1.2%

0.3%

-1.2%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

2002 - 2003 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 - 2009

Arkansas Evangelical Yearly Attendance Growth or Decline, 2002-2009



-1.6%

-1.8%

-1.4%

-1.7%

-2.6%

-3.4%

-2.0%

-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

2002 - 2003 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 - 2009

Arkansas Mainline Yearly Attendance Growth or Decline, 2002-2009



2.1%

1.8%

1.0%

0.6%

1.0% 1.1%

-0.8%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2002 - 2003 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 - 2009

Arkansas Catholic Yearly Attendance Growth or Decline, 2002-2009



0.1%

-0.2%

-0.8%

-0.4%-0.4%

-1.3%

0.0%

-1.4%

-1.2%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

2002 - 2003 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 - 2009

Arkansas Yearly Church Attendance Growth or Decline, 2002-2009




the Church Attendance Percentage Share of Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches in both 2000 and 2009. Notice how the percentages have shifted.



2000 Arkansas Percentage of Church Attendance by Category

Evangelical80%

Mainline13%

Catholic7%

Evangelical

Mainline

Catholic



2009 Arkansas Percentage of Church Attendance by Category

Evangelical81%

Mainline11%

Catholic8%

Evangelical

Mainline

Catholic



The Next Graph

Shows the Yearly Growth or Decline in the Church Attendance Percentage for each Branch from 1990 – 2000 and 2000 - 2009. Because Evangelical churches are not declining as fast as in the 1990’s, the overall decline rate for all groups did not decline as fast as in the 1990’s.



-5.0%

-1.7%

-14.4%

-19.2%

15.9%

10.6%

-4.8%-2.7%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%


2000 - 2009 Arkansas Church Attendance Percentage Growth or Decline

1900-2000

2000-2009



The Next Chart

shows the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Arkansas.


Arkansas 2008 Church Attendance by Denominational Family

AR, Other, 12.4%

AR, Baptist, 45.7%AR, Pentecostal, 10.8%

AR, Lutheran, 1.3%

AR, Methodist, 9.9%

AR, Christian, 10.9%

AR, Presbyterian, 1.5%

AR, Catholic, 7.6%

Other

Baptist

Pentecostal

Lutheran

Methodist

Christian

Presbyterian

Catholic



The Next Chart

shows the 1990, 2000 & 2008 average church attendance by group for Arkansas. The second chart shows the 1990, 2000 & 2008 population per church for this state and the nation. This shows how many people live in this state for every Christian church.



96 103 10881 85 84

369

499

617

97 105 112

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


Average Church Attendance in Arkansas in 1990, 2000, 2008

1990

2000

2008



365

415

447

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1990 2000 2008

Arkansas Population per Church, 1990, 2000, 2008



The Next Map

shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Arkansas.


Arkansas Counties2000 Percentage of Population at Christian Churches on any Given Sunday. Yellow = MostRose = Middle Blue = Least

19.4%

Newton

19.6%

Searcy

20.0%

Marion

21.4%Mississippi

21.6%

Madison

21.7%

Clay

22.2%

Cross

22.6%Fulton

23.0%Perry

23.1%

Little River

23.3%Johnson

23.3%

Lee

23.3%

Poinsett

23.6%

Crittenden

23.7%

Lafayette

24.1%Cleburne

24.1%

Woodruff

24.4%

Chicot

25.6%

Polk

25.7%

Franklin

25.8%Phillips

25.9%

Saint Francis

26.3%

Monroe

26.3%

Randolph

26.6%

Lincoln

27.0%

Van Buren

27.0%

Carroll

27.1%

Miller

27.2%

Hempstead

27.2%

Yell

27.3%

Lawrence27.8%

Washington

27.9%

Jefferson

28.0%

Pope

28.1%Calhoun

28.6%

Desha

28.7%

Union

28.9%

Boone

29.0%

Arkansas

29.0%

Lonoke

29.0%

Saline

29.1%Columbia

29.1%

Independence

29.1%

Craighead

29.4%Ouachita

29.4%Conway

29.5%

Baxter

30.0%

Montgomery

30.0%

Pulaski

30.0%

Stone

30.1%

Cleveland

30.2%

Sebastian

30.2%

Ashley

30.2%Izard

30.3%

Crawford

30.3%Prairie

30.3%

Scott

30.9%Greene

31.0%

Garland

31.0%Drew

31.2%

Nevada

31.4%Jackson

31.7%

Sevier

32.0%Logan

32.4%Clark

33.0%

Hot Spring

34.3%

Bradley

34.7%

Faulkner

35.9%

White

36.0%Pike

36.1%

Howard

37.4%Benton

38.0%

Sharp

40.7%

Grant

43.6%

Dallas

19.4% to 27.0%27.0% to 30.1%30.1% to 44.6%



The Next 3 Maps

show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Arkansas in 2000. Evangelical churches are much stronger in the southern half of the state, while Catholics are clustered in the northwest part of the state.


Arkansas Counties2000 Percentage

of Population at Evangelical Churches

on any Given Sunday. Yellow = Most

Maroon = Middle Blue = Least

14.7%

Marion

17.3%

Newton

17.6%

Madison

17.7%

Perry

18.2%Johnson

18.6%

Scott

19.2%

Cleburne

19.3%

Washington

19.4%

Carroll

19.5%

Fulton

20.9%

Franklin

21.5%

Cross

21.5%

Lonoke

21.5%

Polk

22.1%

Saint Francis

22.2%

Clay

22.4%

Poinsett

22.7%

Yell

22.8%

Baxter

22.9%

Randolph

23.0%

Crittenden

23.1%

Van Buren

23.1%Benton

23.2%

Pope

23.2%

Faulkner

23.6%

Little River

23.6%Mississippi

23.7%

Boone

23.9%

Crawford

24.0%

Craighead

24.1%

Lee

24.7%

Hempstead

24.8%

Sebastian

25.1%

Lincoln

25.1%

Sharp

25.2%

Garland

25.2%

Searcy

25.2%

Miller

25.4%

Montgomery

25.4%

Stone

25.7%

Izard

26.1%

Greene

26.1%

Woodruff

26.3%

Independence

26.5%Conway

26.7%

Lafayette

26.7%

Chicot

26.7%

Lawrence

27.8%

Logan

27.9%Phillips

28.0%

Saline

28.1%

Jefferson

28.2%

Pulaski

28.3%

Hot Spring

28.5%Calhoun

28.6%Drew

28.9%

Monroe

29.1%

Columbia

29.1%

White

29.2%

Union

29.3%Clark

29.9%

Arkansas

30.0%

Prairie

30.0%

Ashley

30.7%

Cleveland

30.8%

Sevier

31.1%Ouachita

31.1%

Desha

31.6%

Nevada

31.8%

Bradley

32.0%

Pike

32.2%Jackson

34.2%

Howard

34.4%

Grant

45.3%

Dallas

17.3% to 23.6%23.6% to 28.0%28.0% to 46.3%



of Population at Mainline Churches on any Given Sunday.

Yellow = MostMaroon = Middle

Blue = Least

0.6%

Newton

0.8%

Randolph

1.1%

Madison

1.2%

Lee

1.3%

Scott

1.6%

Fulton

1.6%

Lincoln

1.7%

Perry

1.8%

Grant

1.8%

Poinsett

1.8%

Conway

1.8%

Clay

2.0%

Phillips

2.1%

Crittenden

2.2%

Chicot

2.2%

Pike

2.2%

Sharp

2.2%

Hot Spring

2.3%

Saline

2.3%

Crawford

2.3%Mississippi

2.4%

Saint Francis

2.4%

Polk

2.5%

Ashley

2.5%

Jackson

2.5%

Calhoun

2.5%

Johnson

2.5%

Logan

2.5%

Little River

2.6%

Woodruff

2.7%

Cross

2.7%

Franklin

2.7%

Desha

2.8%

Jefferson

2.8%

Stone

2.8%

Pope

2.8%

Yell

2.9%

Hempstead

2.9%

Howard

2.9%

Bradley

2.9%

Lonoke

3.0%

White

3.0%

Carroll

3.0%

Sebastian

3.1%

Greene

3.1%

Craighead

3.1%

Faulkner

3.2%

Independence

3.2%Montgomery

3.2%

Lafayette

3.2%

Lawrence3.3%

Washington

3.3%

Prairie

3.3%

Izard

3.4%

Boone

3.4%

Van Buren

3.4%

Cleveland

3.4%

Miller

3.5%

Nevada

3.6%

Marion

3.6%

Baxter

3.7%

Monroe

3.7%

Drew

3.7%

Clark

3.7%

Columbia

3.9%

Searcy

3.9%

Benton

4.0%

Pulaski

4.3%

Cleburne

4.4%

Ouachita

4.4%

Union

4.7%

Dallas

5.1%

Sevier

5.5%

Arkansas

5.9%

Garland 0.8% to 2.5%2.5% to 3.5%3.5% to 6.9%



of Population at Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday.

Yellow = MostMaroon = Middle

Blue = LeastCalhoun

Cleveland

Fulton

Lafayette

Nevada

Newton Searcy

0.1%

Lee

0.2%

Madison

0.2%

Clay

0.2%

Lawrence

0.2%

Grant

0.2%

Lonoke

0.3%

Jackson

0.3%

Saint Francis

0.3%

Columbia

0.3%

Ouachita

0.3%

Montgomery

0.3%

Stone

0.4%

Howard

0.4%

Pike

0.4%

Lincoln

0.4%

Poinsett

0.4%

Monroe

0.4%

Woodruff

0.4%

Crittenden

0.5%

Mississippi

0.5%

Hot Spring

0.5%

Scott

0.5%

White

0.5%

Little River

0.5%

Union

0.6%

Drew

0.6%

Marion

0.6%

Phillips

0.6%

Hempstead

0.7%

Dallas

0.7%

Clark

0.7%

Desha

0.8%

Greene

0.8%

Independence

0.8%

Yell

0.9%

Izard

0.9%

Prairie

0.9%

Jefferson

0.9%

Cleburne

1.0%

Bradley

1.0%

Saline

1.1%

Van Buren

1.1%

Ashley

1.1%

Arkansas

1.2%

Perry

1.2%

Crawford

1.4%

Boone

1.4%

Cross

1.5%

Chicot

1.7%

Johnson

1.7%

Polk

1.7%

Pope

1.9%

Craighead

2.1%

Miller

2.6%

Carroll

2.6%

Sharp

2.9%

Franklin

2.9%

Garland

3.2%

Sevier

3.3%

Pulaski

3.4%

Washington

3.6%

Benton

3.9%

Sebastian

3.9%

Randolph

4.5%

Conway

4.8%

Baxter

5.1%

Faulkner

5.7%

Logan

0.0% to 1.0%1.0% to 2.0%2.0% to 6.7%No data



The Next Map

shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 24 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 51 counties declined.


Arkansas Counties1990-2000 Growth or

Decline of Percentage of Population at Worship on any Given Sunday.

Rose = Growth Blue = Decline

-19.3%

Cleveland

-18.4%

Carroll -18.3%

Marion

-17.5%

Polk

-16.6%

Saint Francis-14.6%

Perry

-13.7%

Randolph

-12.3%

Hot Spring

-12.3%

Van Buren

-11.6%

Benton

-11.3%

Faulkner

-11.0%

Saline

-10.5%

Lincoln

-10.5%

Greene

-10.3%

Grant

-10.1%

Lonoke

-10.0%

Conway

-9.6%

Madison

-9.4%

Miller

-9.2%

Nevada

-8.4%

Cross

-8.1%

Sevier

-8.1%

Sebastian

-8.0%

White

-7.7%

Izard

-7.4%

Columbia

-7.2%

Yell

-7.0%

Franklin

-6.7%

Fulton

-6.6%

Bradley

-6.6%

Pike

-6.6%

Lee

-5.9%

Union

-5.9%

Phillips

-5.4%

Johnson

-5.2%

Ashley

-5.1%

Washington

-4.8%

Craighead

-4.6%

Hempstead

-3.8%

Baxter

-3.6%

Clark

-2.9%

Prairie

-2.6%

Arkansas

-2.0%

Lafayette

-2.0%

Garland

-1.9%

Sharp

-1.0%

Poinsett

-0.8%

Chicot

-0.7%

Ouachita

-0.7%

Pope

-0.1%

Independence

0.1%

Jefferson

1.0%

Monroe

2.0%

Crittenden

2.1%

Howard

2.4%

Logan

2.5%

Clay

2.7%

Calhoun

2.7%

Lawrence

3.7%

Woodruff

4.4%

Newton

4.4%

Stone

5.0%

Drew

5.1%

Little River

5.1%

Cleburne

5.2%

Boone

5.8%

Pulaski

6.0%

Searcy

6.3%

Scott

7.3%

Dallas

7.5%

Crawford

7.6%

Mississippi

9.0%

Desha

9.7%

Jackson

68.5%

Montgomery

DeclineGrowth



The Next 3 Maps

show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Arkansas between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 32 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 43 counties declined. For mainline churches, 7 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 68 counties declined. For Catholics, 45 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 22 counties declined.


Arkansas Counties1990-2000 Growth or Decline of Percentage of Population at Evangelical Worship on any Given Sunday.Maroon = Growth Blue = Decline

-24.5%

Carroll

-19.8%

Polk

-19.3%

Cleveland

-17.3%

Faulkner

-15.9%

Sebastian

-15.7%

Randolph

-15.5%

Perry

-15.2%

Marion-14.9%

Sharp

-13.8%

Miller

-12.3%

Saint Francis

-12.0%

Benton

-12.0%

Hot Spring

-11.0%

Lincoln

-10.6%

Grant

-10.3%

Searcy

-9.7%

Conway

-9.6%

Madison

-9.5%

White

-9.0%

Lonoke

-8.5%

Washington

-8.4%

Greene

-7.0%

Craighead

-6.8%

Bradley

-6.6%

Ashley

-6.3%

Cross

-5.2%

Franklin

-5.0%

Columbia

-4.9%

Nevada

-4.7%

Yell

-4.5%

Pike

-4.2%

Phillips

-4.1%

Garland

-3.9%

Johnson

-3.9%

Van Buren

-3.3%

Lee

-3.0%

Union-2.8%

Lafayette

-2.3%

Fulton

-1.8%

Clark

-1.3%

Pope

-1.1%

Prairie

-0.1%

Arkansas

0.2%

Baxter

0.3%

Hempstead

0.8%

Chicot

1.0%

Ouachita

1.6%

Izard

1.7%

Monroe

1.8%

Independence

1.8%

Calhoun

1.8%

Poinsett

2.3%

Drew

3.3%

Howard

4.2%

Jefferson

4.5%

Sevier

4.7%

Cleburne

4.9%

Little River

5.0%

Woodruff

5.6%

Pulaski

5.7%

Lawrence

5.8%

Saline

7.0%

Clay

7.0%

Stone

7.1%

Logan

7.5%

Newton

7.7%

Crawford

8.2%

Scott

8.3%

Crittenden

8.8%

Dallas

10.8%

Boone

11.3%

Mississippi

12.7%

Jackson

13.4%

Desha

22.6%

Montgomery DeclineIncrease


Arkansas Counties1990-2000 Growth or

Decline of Percentage of Population at

Mainline Worship on any Given Sunday.

Maroon = Growth Blue = Decline

-41.9%

Newton

-37.9%

Fulton

-35.2%

Pike

-33.7%

Nevada

-32.4%

Hempstead

-32.1%

Lee

-31.7%

Logan

-31.6%

Izard

-30.0%

Conway-28.5%

Sebastian

-27.9%

Yell

-27.6%

Johnson

-27.5%

Bradley

-27.3%

Van Buren

-26.9%

Sharp

-26.1%

Jefferson

-25.4%

Polk

-25.2%

Poinsett

-24.7%

Sevier

-24.3%

Carroll

-24.2%

Phillips

-23.8%

Marion

-23.7%

Benton

-22.5%

Chicot

-22.0%

Greene

-20.6%

Clay

-20.6%

Desha

-20.4%

Columbia

-20.1%

Hot Spring

-19.0%

Clark

-18.2%

Crittenden

-17.5%

Boone

-17.3%

Scott

-16.7%

Cross

-16.4%

Washington

-15.9%

Jackson

-15.8%

Union

-15.8%

Independence

-14.7%

Mississippi

-14.6%

Randolph

-14.3%

Prairie

-13.0%

Baxter

-12.5%

Stone

-12.1%

Lawrence-12.0%

Madison

-11.9%

Dallas

-11.5%

Montgomery

-11.1%

Searcy

-10.5%

Arkansas

-10.4%

Lincoln

-10.2%

Craighead

-10.0%

Ashley

-9.9%

Crawford

-9.6%

Lonoke

-9.0%

Franklin

-8.8%

Saint Francis

-8.7%

Little River

-8.6%

Woodruff

-7.4%

Ouachita

-5.4%

Monroe

-5.4%

Howard

-5.0%

Cleveland

-4.3%

Grant

-3.3%

White

-2.6%

Garland

-2.2%

Pulaski

-1.9%

Pope

-1.8%

Perry

0.8%

Faulkner

3.2%

Miller 5.7%

Lafayette

7.5%

Cleburne

8.8%

Saline

12.7%

Calhoun

18.3%

Drew

DeclineIncrease


Arkansas Counties1990-2000 Increase or

Decline in Percentage of Population at

Catholic Worship on any Given Sunday.

Maroon = Growth Blue = Decline

Calhoun

Cleveland

Fulton

Lafayette

Nevada

Newton

Pike

Searcy

-72.2%

Lee

-64.7%

Clay

-60.2%

Crittenden

-50.1%

Van Buren

-48.0%

Izard

-47.7%

Lonoke

-42.3%

Saint Francis

-35.5%

Ouachita

-33.3%

Union

-26.8%

Lawrence

-21.9%

Howard

-18.3%

Columbia

-17.2%

Marion

-16.0%

Cross

-15.0%

Montgomery

-13.8%

Mississippi

-13.3%

Arkansas

-10.9%

Desha

-8.5%

Phillips

-5.6%

Prairie

-4.4%

Greene

-4.1%

Jackson

0.3%

Franklin

1.6%

Jefferson

2.5%

Perry

3.6%

Chicot

4.5%

Grant

6.3%

Poinsett

7.0%

Conway

9.5%

Randolph

10.1%

Woodruff

10.7%

Baxter

12.4%

Monroe

19.2%

Logan

20.0%

Boone

21.9%

Stone

22.7%

Sharp

24.1%

Pulaski

24.4%

Cleburne

28.9%

Sebastian

30.7%

Pope

31.8%

Scott

33.0%

Hempstead

36.6%

Madison

37.7%

Miller

41.1%

Independence

41.6%

Garland

46.0%

Hot Spring

57.9%

Lincoln

63.4%

Saline

68.6%

Faulkner

75.3%

Clark

87.1%

Craighead

93.3%

Ashley

97.4%

Johnson

102.2%

Yell

104.1%

Polk

104.7%

Benton

110.1%

Drew

118.8%

Washington

122.3%

Crawford

129.5%

Sevier

208.0%

Dallas

315.3%

White

377.4%

Carroll

418.8%

Little River

1213.9%

Bradley

DeclineIncreaseNo data



The Final Chart

shows the net gain in the number of churches in Arkansas in the past decade. There was a net loss of 57 churches. However, to keep up with the population growth in Arkansas, there would have needed to have been an additional 438 more churches started from 2000 - 2008.

The American Church Research Project © 2004 by David T. Olson

8

-63

-2

-57

438

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total Gain Increase Needed toMaintain 2000 Ratio

of Churches toPopulation

2000 - 2008 Growth or Decline in the Number of Churches in Arkansas



The State of the Church in Arkansas . . .

• Because of strong population growth in the northwest part of Arkansas, the church has both great opportunities and great challenges.

• While numeric church attendance has grown for Evangelicals and Catholics, the percentage of the population attending church has been declining for the Evangelical and Mainline church, while growing only for the Catholic church. This resulted in a 2.7% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 2000 and 2009.

• A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Arkansas. If the church is to rectify that state-wide, 495 additional churches would need to be started in the state than in the next 8 years.



Information on the Information

• The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.

• Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.

• African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 2000 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 2000 and 2000. This was combined with the known attendance at about 10,000 African Americans churches to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible for each county.

• Independent church data is difficult to obtain. (There are actually many fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 2000 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.

• In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.

• Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.

• This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 22% and 24% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox Christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 25% – 27%.



This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church

attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 15 years for over 200,000 individual churches.

It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 305,000 orthodox Christian churches.1

1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2008 percentage to 19.3%.



For More Information . . . • Presentations such as this are available for

the largest 80 Metropolitan Areas in the United States, for each State and for the Nation as a whole. Presentations can be downloaded immediately. A Combo Pack for each state is also available, which includes the National, State and any Metro PowerPoints from that state. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information.

arkansas power point presentation 2010

Documents

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population growth percentage

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