Army Reserve Mission Resilience and

Sustainability (ARMRS) Training

November 7, 2017

The Economics of Recycling and the Circular Economy

Agenda

• Sustainability

• Walton Sustainability Solutions Initiatives

• Seidman Research Institute

• Recycling

• Circular Economy

• Economic Impact

Sustainability Meeting the needs of the present generation

without compromising the ability of future

generations to meet their own needs

Why it matters

• Current world population 7.5 Billion

• Estimated to reach 10 Billion by 2060

• UN Estimates by 2050

• 30 percent more water

• 40 percent more energy

• 50 percent more food

Rob and Melani Walton Sustainability Solutions Initiatives

SOLVE global challenges

ENGAGE and inform the public EDUCATE future leaders

Solutions

Programs

Phoenix Metro Area

Resource Innovation

Campus

Phoenix

Guatemala

Nigeria

Netherlands

India

RISN HQ “Living Building”

RISN Incubator, Entrepreneurship

Solutions Delivery

Public-Private Collaboration

Community Outreach & Education

RISN HUB 80 acres at 27th Ave. &

Lower Buckeye

11/14/2017 7

11/14/2017 8

Resource Innovation Campus

Source EPA 9

MSW – Waste Generation

Source EPA 10

MSW – Recycling Rates

Source Waste Management 11

The Evolving Ton

• Per capita waste generation is down 8% since

2000, affecting recycling, landfilling and waste-to-

energy.

• Less paper, more plastic and no growth in metal.

• More discarded electronics

• More non-recyclable “Evil Hybrid” single use items.

Source EPA 12

What makes something recyclable?

• Source separation

• Convenient

• Minimal Contamination

• Collection

• Single Stream

• Cost Effective

• Markets

• International vs. Domestic

• China is by far the largest importer of recyclable

scrap in the world.

• China’s purpose for this campaign is an attempt to

clean up the type of waste entering their country.

• Increased focus on the quality of waste paper and

plastics.

13

China – National Sword

14

The Circular Economy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCRKvDyyHmI

15

Linear v. Circular Economy

http://storyofstuff.org/movies/story-of-stuff/

16

Linear v. Circular Economy

17

Industrial Platform

WHY A CIRCULAR ECONOMY

• Growing population

• Earth’s resources are finite

• Currently follow a linear model

• Cannot currently recycle, compost, or recover all our waste

• Ellen McArthur Foundation recommends a circular economy

• Require a radical rethinking of business models

BUT……

CAN OR WILL IT REALLY HAPPEN?

PLASTIC CARRIER BAGS

• 2014: Bisbee City Council ban local businesses using plastic bags

Supported by local businesses

Proven waste reduction strategy

• 2016: AZ Legislature disallows municipalities from instituting bans

• 2017: Attorney General declares Bisbee ban violates state law

Ban now becomes voluntary

1) What is the current impact of recycling, reuse and repair activities on the local economy?

2) What potential circular economy opportunities exist locally?

ADVANCING THE DISCUSSION

Geography: Maricopa County

Focus: Recycling, reuse, and repair & maintenance

Study Year: 2014

CURRENT IMPACT RECYCLING/REUSE/REPAIR

KEY STAKEHOLDERS

• Firms that collect the material

• Firms that process the material

• Firms that reuse, repair, or recycle the material

METHOD

MAXIMUM GROSS IMPACT ESTIMATE, 2014

$1.9 Billion 35,454 $1.2 Billion $158.5 Million

Gross State Product

Jobs Labor Income Tax Revenues

“MAXIMUM” AS IMPOSSIBLE TO DIFFERENTIATE WITHIN NAICS

MAXIMUM GROSS IMPACT ESTIMATE, 2014

GSP (Millions $)

JOBS LABOR INCOME

(Millions $)

Recycling $873.7 9,610 $560.2

Repair & Maintenance

$221.8 2,918 $152.9

Reuse $805.5 22,926 $528.4

CONTEXTUALIZING THE IMPACT

0.9% 2% 1.4% 2.6%

Gross State Product

Salaried Jobs

Labor Income State & Local Tax Revenues

CONTEXTUALIZING THE IMPACT

Large streams from little fountains flow,

Tall oaks from little acorns grow. David Everett

The Columbian Orator (1797)

WASTE CHARACTERIZATION STUDIES

• Characterizes and quantifies the different types of material within a waste stream

• Often single family residential solid municipal waste

• Can additionally include:

• Multi-family residential waste

• Industrial and commercial waste

• Self-hauled waste

• Used to reduce waste, set up recycling/diversion programs, and conserve money and resources

WASTE CHARACTERIZATION STUDIES

WHAT TYPES OF MATERIAL FEATURE?

PHOENIX SINGLE FAMILY WASTE STUDY (Tons)

2014 RECYCLED WASTE TOTAL

Paper 55,802 49,132 104,934

Plastic 16,379 38,127 54,506

Glass 9,820 7,250 17,070

Metals 4,695 10,352 15,047

Organics 4,027 187,991 192,018

Other 11,159 97,696 108,855

WASTE CHARACTERIZATION STUDIES

33%

67%

NYC 2013

Austin 2014

Phoenix 2014

21%

79%

33%

67%

Recycled Waste

POST-CONSUMER PLASTICS

• MRFs only separate PET & HDPE

• Demand correlated with crude oil price

• Manufacturers switch between virgin (prime) and recycled resins

• One local pre-consumer plastic processor handles 12,000 tons a year

• Phoenix collects sufficient supply for a PET flake or pellet processor

POST-CONSUMER GLASS

• One of the heaviest materials in municipal waste stream

• Phoenix already has a glass processor, capable of handling all of city’s waste

• Quality of glass supply is critical

• Demand for recycled glass exceeds current supply in U.S.

• Sometimes cheaper for waste mgmt. firms to landfill glass

POST-CONSUMER METALS

• Phoenix’s scrap metal mainly sourced from air conditioners, appliances, cars and other metallic objects that have ended their useful lives

• City has several brokers and dealers, and 2 shredders

• Additionally recoverable metals in waste stream could be handled locally

• But local availability of metals > local manufacturing demand

POST-CONSUMER PAPER

• Includes old corrugated boxes or containers, newspapers, magazines, and other printed papers

• Pulping is water-intensive

• Phoenix has insufficient OCC supply for a recycled corrugated box plant

• Consider a multi-state approach

SUMMARY OF POSSIBLE LOCAL OPPORTUNITIES

LANDFILL

PROCESSORS & SHREDDERS

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPPORTUNITIES

Geography:

Maricopa County

Focus:

• New PET post-consumer flake/pellet firm

• Expansion of existing cullet operation

• Expansion of existing metal shredder

Study Time Horizon:

2017-2022

MARICOPA COUNTY GROSS IMPACT, 2017-2022

$123 Million 118-207 $61.3 Million

Cumulative Gross State

Product

Jobs per year Cumulative Labor Income

GROSS ECONOMIC IMPACT ESTIMATE, 2017-22

CAPEX (Millions $)

GSP (Millions $)

JOBS

PET $10-12 $112 110-188 per year (incl. 50 direct)

Glass Cullet $1.5 $11 8-19 per year (incl. 5 direct)

Metal Shredder

$0 $0 0

SUMMARY OF POSSIBLE LOCAL OPPORTUNITIES

LANDFILL

PROCESSORS & SHREDDERS

CITY MUST SIMULTANEOUSLY SEEK AND ENCOURAGE LOCAL MARKETS FOR THE FLAKE, CULLET & SHREDDED METAL

Army Reserve Mission Resilience and

Sustainability (ARMRS) Training

November 7, 2017

Thank you.

Questions?