around the world in eighty disasters - inaugural lecture
TRANSCRIPT
Around the World in80 Disasters
Global TrendsLocal Challenges
DavidAlexander
When and where did I start?
I was a seven-stoneweakling and a UCL
PhD student!
Sunday23rd
November1980
19:34.52.8
Disaster Risk Reduction
Recoveryand
reconstruction
Mitigationandresilience
Preparationandmobilisation
Emergencyintervention
Quiescence
Crisis
The disastercycle
Recoveryand
reconstruction
Mitigationandresilience
Preparationandmobilisation
Emergencyintervention
Crisis
Emergencyplanning andorganisation
ofsecuritysystems
Warning and
preparation;damage
limitationmeasuresactivated
Emergencyoperationsand damagelimitation
Recovery andrestoration
Safetymanage-ment of
emergencyoperations
Quiescence
"Theory isour roadmap"
Prof. Thomas E. DrabekUniversity of Denver
Rev. DrSamuel Henry Prince
1885-1960Nuova Scotia,
Columbia University
ProfessorHarlan H. Barrows
1877-1960Michigan,
Chicago University
1920
1923
Can we define disaster?
1998 2005
With what theoreticalbasis has 93 years
of academic study ofdisasters endowed us?
HUMANCONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
“ORTHODOX” MODEL
PHYSICALEVENT
HUMANVULNERABILITY
“RADICAL CRITIQUE” (K. HEWITT et al.)HUMAN
CONSEQUENCESOF DISASTER
HUMANVULNERABILITY
PHYSICALEVENT
PROPOSAL FOR A NEW MODEL
HUMANCONSEQUENCESOF DISASTER.
HUMANVULNERABILITY
CULTURE HISTORYPHYSICALEVENTS
CONTEXT & CONSEQUENCES
Since the 1979-83"vulnerabilityrevolution",
have we seenthe triumph ofthe "orthodox"
approach?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Papers published in Natural Hazards and NHESS
Natural Hazards Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences
Papers published in Natural Hazardsand NHESS, 1988-2013
1990s:Average 45
2013:Total 800
― Natural Hazards― Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
1988 2013
450
Founded in 2012to promote genuinelyinterdisciplinary work.
It is one of 67dedicated DRRjournals and morethan 500 thatpublish papersin this field.
• from two or three journals in 1970sto 70 dedicated journals in 2013,+ c. 500 that publish DRR papers
• the disaster "gold rush" mentality
• the rediscovery of the [well-]known by inexperienced researchers
• failure to produce new theory.
On the productivity of disaster science
• the rise of misleading bibliometry
[1993] [1990]
Some links
Effects of
technology onvulnerability to
natural disasters
Effects of naturaldisasters on
technological capital
Social conditionsas factors that
incubate
dissidence
Tech
nologica
l
compo
nent
of a
cts
ofte
rror
ism
Intentionaldisasters
Technologicaldisasters
Socialdisasters
Naturaldisasters
Gertrude Stein,1913 [adapted]
A disaster isa disaster is a disaster...
Its "disastrousness" is notdefined by its causal agent.
ResilienceResistance
Risk Susceptibility
Physical(including natural,built, technological)
Social(including cultural,political, economic
EnvironmentAtt
ribut
es
Source: McEntire 2001
Liabilities
Capa
bilities
VULNERABILITY
American CivilLiberties Unionreport on thetreatment ofprisoners duringthe aftermathof HurricaneKatrina.
Squatter settlementin Bangladesh Flood level
Normal river level
Rather than mitigating the sources ofvulnerability to disaster, globalisation ismaintaining, exporting and reinforcing
them by its divide-and-rule strategies.
Vulnerability
Total: life isgenerally precariousEconomic: people lackadequate occupationTechnological/technocratic: dueto the riskiness of technologyDelinquent: caused bycorruption, negligence, etc.Residual: caused bylack of modernisationNewly generated: caused bychanges in circumstances
Have disastersbeen getting worse?
• population increases in hazard zones
• society is more complex and polarised
• new sources of vulnerability
• cascading and complex impacts
• failure adequately to mitigate risk.
Have disasters been getting worse?
Cascading effects
Collateral vulnerability
Secondarydisasters
Interaction between risks
Climatechange
Probability
Indeterminacy
"Fat-tailed" (skewed)distributionsof impacts
Fallinghazardprobability
Risingvulnerability
Optimummitigationlevel??
'Fat-tailed'(negatively skewed)
distribution
Magnitude
• the relative view: there areplenty of other sources of risk
• increased information flowsmake things seem worse
• more agencies are at work on disasters
• disasters are getting more political.
Have disasters been getting worse?
Have we made any serious progress at all in DRR since 1983?
DETERMINISMCause Effect
PROBABILITY(constrained uncertainty)
Cause Single, multiple or cascading effects
THE KNOWN
THE UNKNOWN
PURE UNCERTAINTYCausal relationship
unknown
Greyarea
Organisationalsystems:management
Socialsystems:behaviour
Naturalsystems:function
Technicalsystems:
malfunction
VulnerabilityHazard
Resilienc
e
Politicalsystems:decisions
• the main emphasis is still on reactingto disasters, not reducing disaster risk
• there has been an enormous rise inhazards studies, but much less efforthas gone on studying vulnerability
• the social and perceptual componentsof disaster remain undervalued
• the role of theory is underestimated.
Progress in disaster risk reduction?
In disasters and disaster risk,how important is gender?
Kobe 1995 earthquake deathsby gender and age
― males ― females
Victimisation of women and girls in and after disaster is common throughout the world, but in many cases the reasons are poorly understood.
One in six deaths was anold lady whose death was notpredicted by demographics
• an excess of deaths among women
• very high post-traumatic stress levels
• victimisation in survivors' families
• failure to consider female perspective
• decision making largely by men.
Women and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake
• "forgiveness money"
• vote buying
• political control throughfunding decisions
• corruption andtheft of funds
• profiteering and deliberatedistortion of markets.
Welfare and...
What is resilience?
The "cradle"of resilience:
Canonbury TowerLondon N1.
Built in 1509to survive the
Universal Deluge:inhabited in 1625by Francis Bacon.
Francis BaconSylva Sylvarum, 1625
[Are we to criticise him for usingthe "greengrocer's apostrophe"?]
LAW
STATESMANSHIP
LITERATURE
SCIENTIFICMETHOD
MECHANICS
MANU-FACTURING
ECOLOGY
MANAGEMENT(ADAPTIVE)
CHILDPSYCHOLOGY
ANTHROPOLOGY
SOCIALRESEARCH
DISASTER RISKREDUCTION
SUSTAINABILITYSCIENCE CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION
c. BC 50
AD 15291625
1859
19301950
1973
2000
2010
NATURALHISTORY
• an objective, a process or a strategy?
• a paradigm, diverse paradigms?
• 'bounce-back' or 'bounce-forward'?
• focuses on the community scale?
• can reconcile dynamic & static elements?
Resilience
RESILIENCE
Social
Tech
nica
l
Physical
Psych
ological
CLIMATE CHANGEADAPTATION
DISASTER RISKREDUCTION
OTHER HAZARDSAND RISKS
naturalsocial
technologicalintentionalcompoundcascading
SUSTAINABILITYSCIENCE
RISKSdaily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc.emerging risks: pandemics, climate change
SUSTAINABILITYdisaster risk reduction
resource consumptionstewardship of the environment
economic activitieslifestyles and communities
SUSTAINABILITY
RESILIENCE:as a material has brittle strength and ductility:so must society havean optimum combination of resistance tohazard impacts and ability to adapt to them.
physicalenvironmental
socialeconomic
health-relatedcultural
educationalinfrastructuralinstitutional
RESILIENCECOPING
VULNERABILITYFRAGILITY
SUSCEPTIBILITYOrganisation:• public admin.• private sector• civil society
Community
Individual
Resilience: facets...
...and relationships
Causes of disasternatural geophysical,technological, social
Historysingle andcumulativeimpactof pastdisasters
Humancultures
constraintsand
opportunitiesIMPACTS
Adaptationto risk
RESILIENCE
Long term
Short term
Emic components
Etic components
METAMORPHOSISOF CULTURE
Experiences of culture[mass-media and consumer culture]
Accumulated cultural traits and beliefs
Inherited cultural background
Ideological(non-scientific)interpretations
of disaster
Learned(scientific)
interpretationsof disaster
Conclusion: onthe shoulders
of giants
Tony Oliver-SmithKai Erikson
• as Kai Erikson noted, disaster shiftsour position on fundamental dimensions
• we live in the New Baroque Age
• characterised by tension of opposites
• massive cultural dynamism isredefining the symbolism of disaster
• to understand disaster, weneed to be interdisciplinarywith boldness and ingenuity.
There is no doubtthat "we live in
interesting times".
Chrestomathia
[email protected]/dealexanderemergency-planning.blogspot.com
Ishinomaki, Japan