arpu - average revenue per user
TRANSCRIPT
ARPU Indonesian Telecom Market Facts and Numbers: Charts & Tables 2004 – 2008 [HR.CTD009.V1U1-2009] Dr.Ing. Eueung Mulyana @ Harewos Research 11/4/2009 http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos
ARPU
Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos
Nov. 4
2
Contents
List of Figures & Tables ........................................................................................................ 3
ARPU Trends ......................................................................................................................... 4
Telkomsel ............................................................................................................................... 9
Indosat ................................................................................................................................. 11
Excelcomindo ....................................................................................................................... 13
Telkom FWA ........................................................................................................................ 15
Bakrie Telecom .................................................................................................................... 17
Mobile-8 ................................................................................................................................ 19
Abbreviations & Notes ........................................................................................................ 21
ARPU
Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos
Nov. 4
3
List of Figures & Tables
Figure 1 Blended ARPU 2008 – 6 Operators ....................................................................... 5 Figure 2 Postpaid ARPU 2008 – 6 Operators ...................................................................... 5 Figure 3 Prepaid ARPU 2008 – 6 Operators ........................................................................ 5 Figure 4 Average Blended-to-Prepaid ARPU Ratio 2004 – 2008 (%) ................................. 6 Figure 5 Average Blended-to-Prepaid ARPU Ratio 2008 (%) ............................................. 6 Figure 6 TSEL’s ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ....................................................... 9 Figure 7 ISAT’s ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ...................................................... 11 Figure 8 XL’s ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) .......................................................... 13 Figure 9 TLKM’s FWA ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) .......................................... 15 Figure 10 BTEL’s ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ................................................... 17 Figure 11 M-8’s ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ...................................................... 19
Figure Table 1 Growth/Decay of Total ARPU 2004-2008 (IDR Thousands) ...................... 7 Figure Table 2 Growth of Total ARPU 2004 – 2008 (AGR & CAGR) ................................. 8 Figure Table 3 TSEL’s ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ......................................... 9 Figure Table 4 TSEL’s ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR .................................................... 10 Figure Table 5 ISAT’s ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ........................................ 11 Figure Table 6 ISAT’s ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR ..................................................... 12 Figure Table 7 XL’s ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ............................................ 13 Figure Table 8 XL’s ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR ......................................................... 14 Figure Table 9 TLKM’s FWA ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ........................... 15 Figure Table 10 TLKM’s FWA ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR ....................................... 16 Figure Table 11 BTEL’s ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ..................................... 17 Figure Table 12 BTEL’s ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR .................................................. 18 Figure Table 13 M-8’s ARPU Growth/Decay (IDR Thousands) ........................................ 19 Figure Table 14 M-8’s ARPU Growth – AGR & CAGR ..................................................... 20
Table 1 Blended ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ....................................................... 4 Table 2 Postpaid ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ...................................................... 4 Table 3 Prepaid ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands) ........................................................ 4 Table 4 Average Blended-to-Prepaid ARPU Ratio – 6 Operators (%) ................................ 7
ARPU
Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos
Nov. 4
4
ARPU Trends
2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E TSEL 102 87 84 80 59 ISAT 89 67 60 53 39 XL 60 54 46 47 37 TLKM‐FWA 60 47 54 53 38 BTEL 122 117 71 53 42 M8 107 62 48 40 24
Table 1 Blended ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands)
2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E TSEL 304 291 274 264 216 ISAT 267 241 195 183 190 XL 305 251 172 155 152 TLKM‐FWA 94 123 135 115 93 BTEL 142 159 145 144 137 M8 339 217 141 115 86
Table 2 Postpaid ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands)
2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E TSEL 76 72 72 71 55 ISAT 79 58 53 47 35 XL 54 50 42 43 35 TLKM‐FWA 20 19 35 42 32 BTEL 71 71 57 47 42 M8 72 57 46 37 22
Table 3 Prepaid ARPU 2004 – 2008 (IDR Thousands)
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
rch rvirtual.com
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
59Bl
216
Po
55
Pr
m/harewos
1 Blended
Postpaid
3 Prepaid
39 3
lended
6190
15
ostpaid
35 35
repaid
d ARPU 2
d ARPU 2
d ARPU 2
7 38
d ARP
5293
d ARP
5 32
d ARPU
2008 – 6 O
2008 – 6 O
008 – 6 O
42
24
U 2008
13786
PU 200
42
2
U 2008
Operators
Operators
perators
4
8E
6
8E
2
8E
s
s
ARPU
5
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Fi
wos.Resear/www.ligar
igure 4 Av
Figure
63.
200
rch rvirtual.com
verage B
5 Averag
.1%
04E
Blen
7.94
Blen
m/harewos
lended-to
ge Blende
44.1%
2005E
nded to
(A
11.435.7
nded to
20
o-Prepaid
d-to-Prep
20.4%
2006E
o PrepRatio
Averag
71
18.75
o PrepRatio
008E (%
d ARPU R
paid ARP
13.6%
2007E
paid A
ge)
0.00
9.
paid Ao %)
Ratio 200
PU Ratio
%8.
E 200
RPU
09
ARPU
4 – 2008 (
2008 (%)
8%
08E
ARPU
6
(%)
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
TSEL ISAT XL TLKM‐FWBTEL M8
Tab
Figur
wos.Resear/www.ligar
WA
ble 4 Ave
re Table 1
1
2
30
40
50
60
ARPU
A
rch rvirtual.com
2004E34.55 12.66 11.11 200.0071.83 48.61
erage Ble
1 Growth/
0
100
00
00
00
00
00
2004
U (6 Op.)
ARPU
m/harewos
2020158
0 14648
nded-to-P
/Decay of
4 2005
2004540
- Tota
005E 0.20 5.52 8.00 47.37 4.79 8.77
Prepaid A
f Total AR
2006
2005434
al (IDR
2006E 16.23 13.21 9.52 54.29 24.56 4.35
ARPU Ra
RPU 2004
2007
2006363
R Thou
- 18%
2007E12.5412.779.30 26.1912.778.11
atio – 6 Op
4-2008 (ID
2008
2007326
usands
%
E 204 77 1
59 17 0
9
perators
DR Thous
2008239
s)
ARPU
7
008E 7.94 11.43 5.71 18.75 0.00 9.09
(%)
sands)
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Fi
Pt
g
wos.Resear/www.ligar
igure Tab
AGRCAGR
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
ble 2 Grow
2005-19.6-19.6
Tota
m/harewos
wth of To
566
al ARP
otal ARPU
2006-16.4-18.0
U Gro
U 2004 – 2
200-10.-15.
owth/D
2008 (AGR
725
Decay
R & CAG
2008-26.7-18.4
ARPU
8
GR)
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figu
Figure T
10
30
7
200
6
8
10
12
ARPU
A
rch rvirtual.com
ure 6 TSE
able 3 TS
02
04
76
04E
0
20
40
60
80
00
20
2004
2004U 102
ARPU
m/harewos
EL’s ARPU
SEL’s ARP
87
291
72
2005E
ARPBlended
4 2005
200587
- TSEL
U 2004 – 2
PU Grow
84
274
72
2006E
PU - TSPostpai
2006
20084
L (IDR
2008 (IDR
wth/Decay
80
264
71
2007E
SELid Pre
2007
06 24
R Thou
- 13%
Tel
R Thousa
y (IDR Th
5
2
5
E 200
epaid
2008
00780
usands
%
lkom
ands)
housands)
59
16
55
08E
200859
s)
ARPU
9
msel
)
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Pt
g
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figu
AGRCAGR
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
ure Table
2005-14.7-14.7
TSEL
m/harewos
4 TSEL’s
577
L's ARP
s ARPU G
2006-3.4-9.3
PU Gro
Growth –
200-4.8-7.8
owth/D
AGR & C
788
Decay
CAGR
2008-26.3-12.8
y
ARPU
10
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figu
Figure T
8
26
7
200
12345060708090
ARPU
A
rch rvirtual.com
ure 7 ISA
Table 5 IS
89
67
79
04E
0102030000000
2004
2004U 89
ARPU
m/harewos
AT’s ARPU
SAT’s ARP
67
241
58
2005E
ARPBlended
2005
200567
- ISAT
U 2004 – 2
PU Growt
60
195
53
2006E
PU - ISPostpai
2006
20060
T (IDR
2008 (IDR
th/Decay
53
183
47
2007E
SATid Pre
2007
06 20
R Thou
- 19%
I
R Thousa
y (IDR Th
3
1
3E 200
epaid
2008
00753
usands
%
Indo
nds)
housands)
39
90
3508E
200839
s)
ARPU
11
osat
)
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Pt
g
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figu
AGRCAGR
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
ure Table
2005-24.7-24.7
ISAT'
m/harewos
e 6 ISAT’s
577
's ARP
s ARPU G
2006-10.4-17.9
PU Gro
Growth – A
200-11.-15.
owth/D
AGR & C
779
Decay
AGR
2008-26.4-18.6
ARPU
12
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Fig
Figure
6
30
5
200
1
2
3
40
50
60
ARPU
rch rvirtual.com
gure 8 XL
Table 7 X
60
05
54
04E
0
10
20
0
0
0
0
2004
2004U 60
ARPU
m/harewos
L’s ARPU
XL’s ARPU
54
251
50
2005E
Blended
2005
200554
U - XL
2004 – 20
U Growth
46
172
422006E
ARPPostpai
2006
20046
(IDR T
Ex
008 (IDR
h/Decay (
47
155
432007E
PU - XLid Pre
2007
06 26
Thous
- 1
xcelc
Thousan
(IDR Tho
3
1
3E 200
Lepaid
2008
00747
sands)
19%
omin
nds)
ousands)
37
52
3508E
200837
ARPU
13
ndo
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Pt
g
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Fig
AGRCAGR
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
gure Tabl
2005-10.0-10.0
XL's
m/harewos
le 8 XL’s A
500
s ARPU
ARPU Gr
2006-14.8-12.4
U Grow
rowth – A
2002.2-7.8
wth/D
AGR & CA
728
ecay
AGR
2008-21.3-11.4
ARPU
14
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Fig
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figure
ure Table
6
9
2200
23456
ARPU
rch rvirtual.com
9 TLKM’
e 9 TLKM
60
94
2004E
A
0102030405060
2004
2004U 60
ARP
m/harewos
’s FWA AR
M’s FWA A
47
123
192005E
ARPU Blended
2005
200547
PU - TTh
RPU 2004
ARPU Gr
54
135
35
2006E
- TLKMPostpai
2006
20054
TLKM Fousan
T
4 – 2008 (I
rowth/De
53
115
42
2007E
M FWAid Pre
2007
06 24
FWA (nds)
- 1
Telko
IDR Thou
ecay (IDR
3
9
3
E 200
Aepaid
2008
00753
IDR
11%
om FW
usands)
R Thousan
38
93
32
08E
200838
ARPU
15
WA
nds)
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Pt
g
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figure T
AGRCAGR
-35.0-30.0-25.0-20.0-15.0-10.0
-5.00.05.0
10.015.020.0
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
Table 10 T
2005-21.7-21.7
TLKM
m/harewos
TLKM’s F
577
M's ARP
FWA ARP
200614.9-5.1
PU Gr
PU Growt
200-1.9-4.1
rowth/
th – AGR
791
/Decay
& CAGR
2008-28.3-10.8
y
ARPU
16
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
F
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figu
Figure Ta
12
14
7
200
68
101214
ARPU
A
rch rvirtual.com
re 10 BTE
able 11 BT
22
42
71
04E
020406080002040
2004
2004U 122
ARPU
m/harewos
EL’s ARP
TEL’s AR
117
159
71
2005E
ARPBlended
4 2005
2005117
- BTEL
PU 2004 –
RPU Grow
71
145
57
2006E
PU - BTPostpai
2006
20071
L (IDR
Bak
2008 (ID
wth/Decay
53
144
47
2007E
TELid Pre
2007
06 21
R Thou
- 23
krie T
R Thousa
y (IDR Th
4
1
4
E 200
epaid
2008
00753
usands
3 %
Telec
ands)
housands
42
37
42
08E
200842
s)
ARPU
17
com
s)
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Pt
g
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figur
AGRCAGR
-45.0
-40.0
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
re Table 1
2005-4.1-4.1
BTEL
m/harewos
12 BTEL’
5
L's ARP
’s ARPU G
2006-39.3-23.7
PU Gr
Growth –
200-25.-24.
owth/D
– AGR & C
743
Decay
CAGR
2008-20.8-23.4
y
ARPU
18
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figu
Figure T
10
33
7
200
112
ARPU
rch rvirtual.com
ure 11 M-
Table 13 M
07
39
72
04E
0204060800020
2004
2004U 107
AR
m/harewos
-8’s ARPU
M-8’s ARP
62
217
57
2005E
ARBlended
4 2005
200562
RPU -Th
U 2004 – 2
PU Growt
48
141
46
2006E
RPU - MPostpai
2006
20048
Mobilousan
2008 (IDR
th/Decay
40
115
37
2007E
M8id Pre
2007
06 28
le 8 (IDnds)
- 31
M
R Thousan
(IDR Th
2
8
E 200
epaid
2008
00740
DR
1 %
Mobil
nds)
ousands)
24
86
22
08E
200824
ARPU
19
le-8
)
No
Harewhttp://
ov. 4
Pt
g
wos.Resear/www.ligar
Figu
AGRCAGR
-45.0
-40.0
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Per
cent
age
rch rvirtual.com
ure Table
2005-42.1-42.1
M-8's
m/harewos
e 14 M-8’s
511
s ARPU
ARPU G
2006-22.6-33.0
U Gro
Growth – A
200-16.-28.
owth/D
AGR & CA
770
Decay
AGR
2008-40.0-31.2
ARPU
20
ARPU
Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos
Nov. 4
21
Abbreviations & Notes
AGR Annual Growth Rate
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
FWA Fixed Wireless Access A limited mobility service that links to an area code
PSTN Public Switched Telephone Network A fixed wireline telephone network mainly owned, operated and maintained by PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (PT. Telkom)
MoU Minutes of Use (Minutes of Usage) ARPU Average Revenue Per User
2008E End of 2008 TLKM
PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia / PT. Telkom Indonesia
ISAT
PT. Indosat
XL
PT. Excelcomindo Pratama
BTEL
PT. Bakrie Telecom
M-8
PT. Mobile-8
HCPT
PT. Hutchison CP Telecommunication
NTS
PT. Natrindo Telepon Selular
Smart
PT. Smart Telecom
STI
PT. Sampoerna Telekomunikasi Indonesia
TSEL
PT. Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel)