Arrowsmith Timber Supply Area

Ministry of Forests

P u b l i c D i s c u s s i o n P a p e r

September 2001

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* Timber supply – the amount of

timber that is forecast to be available for

harvesting over a specified time period,

under a particular management regime.

* TSA – an integrated resource management

unit established in accordance with

Section 7 of the Forest Act.

* TFL – provides rights to harvest timber,

and outlines responsibilities for forest

management, in a particular area.

IntroductionThe British Columbia ForestService reviews the timbersupply* for all timber supplyareas* (TSAs) and tree farmlicences* (TFLs) in the provinceat least once every five years.This review examines the impactsof current forest managementpractices on the timber supply,economy, environment and socialconditions of the local area andthe province. Based on thisreview, the chief forester willdetermine the allowable annualcut (AAC) for the ArrowsmithTSA.

The Timber Supply Reviewexamines:Relevant current forest manage-ment practices, public input, andeconomic, environmental andsocial factors.

Outcomes are:

■ A new AAC for the next fiveyears.

■ A list of the information to beimproved for future timbersupply forecasts.

Timber Supply Review in the Arrowsmith TSAThe British Columbia ForestService has now completed the2001 Arrowsmith TSA AnalysisReport, which is summarized inthis discussion paper. Thisdiscussion paper is intended toprovide British Columbians withan overview of the TimberSupply Review process andharvest level forecasts for theArrowsmith TSA, and toencourage them to providecomments during the 45-day public review period.Public comments will beaccepted until Nov. 13, 2001.

Before setting a new AAC, thechief forester will review allrelevant reports and public input.The chief forester’s determinationwill be outlined in a rationalestatement which, along with thesummary of public input, will be available to the public uponrelease. Following the release of the AAC determination by the chief forester, the minister of forests will apportion the AAC to the various licences andprograms.

June 1998start Timber

Supply Review

May 2000Data Package &

Information Reportreleased

September 2001Analysis & discussion

paper released

June 200030-day

public review ends

Nov. 13, 2001deadline for

public review

Current Status Early 2002AAC decision

will be released

Review Process for the Arrowsmith TSA

Description of the TSAThe Arrowsmith TSA is locatedon the southern half of VancouverIsland and consists of severalfragmented areas located withinthe South Island Forest District.This TSA is one of eight in theVancouver Forest Region, andhas an an area of approximately169,000 hectares. The TSA isadministered by the forest districtoffice in Port Alberni. Comparedto the surrounding TFL lands,which include TFL 25, 44, 46and 57, the TSA provides acomparatively small, albeitimportant, component of thetimber harvest on the southernpart of Vancouver Island.

In 2000, the population in theSouth Island Forest District wasapproximately 557,900 people.About 60 per cent of the peoplereside within the CapitolRegional District, including theCity of Victoria. Other majorpopulation centres are Duncan,Ladysmith, Nanaimo, Parksville,Qualicum Beach and Port Alberni,and smaller communities includeTofino, Ucluelet, Lake Cowichan,

Nanoose, Chemainus, Union Bayand Fanny Bay. Populationdensity in this TSA is particularlyhigh along the east coast ofVancouver Island, and isexpected to continue growing at a strong rate.

First Nations Twenty-six First Nations withreserves or traditional territoriesare located within the ArrowsmithTSA. All but three First Nationsare represented by the followingfour tribal councils and two treatyassociations: the Alliance TribalCouncil; the First Nation SouthIsland Tribal Council; the Mid-Island Tribal Council; the Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council; theHul’qumi’nun Treaty Group; andthe Te’Mexw Treaty Association.Some of these First Nations have entered into land claimsnegotiations under the BritishColumbia Treaty Process.

First Nations are becoming moreactive in the management ofpublic forest lands and timberharvesting in their traditionalterritories. For example, inMarch 1994, a two-year InterimMeasures Agreement was signedbetween the provincialgovernment and hereditary chiefsof the Nuu-chah-nulth CentralRegion Tribes. The agreementestablished the Clayoquot SoundCentral Region Board, which is a joint management processbetween First Nations andprovincial government appointeesto oversee development inClayoquot Sound, includingimplementation of the ClayoquotSound Land-Use Decision andthe recommendations of theScientific Panel. In March 2000,a new five-year extensionagreement was signed.

COURTENAY

TSATFLOther (Private etc.)

Forest District BoundaryPark

South Island Forest DistrictSouth Island Forest District

NANAIMONANAIMO

LADYSMITHLADYSMITH

SOOKE

VICTORIA

LAKE COWICHAN

DUNCAN

LAKE COWICHANUCLUELETBAMFIELDBAMFIELD

DUNCAN

TOFINOTOFINO

PORT ALBERNIPORT ALBERNI

VICTORIA

SOOKE

The natural resourcesNumerous natural resources areassociated with the forest landbase in the Arrowsmith TSA,such as forest products (timberand non-timber), recreation andtourism amenities, and fish andwildlife habitats.

As Figure 1 shows, about 56 percent (112,050 hectares) of theArrowsmith TSA is consideredCrown-owned forest landmanaged by the British ColumbiaForest Service. Currently, about54 per cent of this forested land(about 30 per cent of the totalTSA land base) is consideredavailable for timber harvesting—the timber harvesting land base*.

All current forest managementfollows the standards set out bythe Forest Practices Code. TheCode is designed to ensure goodforest management of all forest

values, including maintaining arange of biodiversity and wildlifevalues. More than one-quarter ofthe Arrowsmith TSA is productiveforest land that is not consideredavailable for timber harvesting,and provides for many environ-mental values. As well, parks inthe surrounding area contributeto protecting wildlife habitat and

biodiversity. This timber supplyanalysis accounts for managementrequirements for biodiversity;scenic areas; watersheds; deerwinter range; recreation features;streams, lakes and wetlands; andunstable terrain.

Land use planningIn April 1993, the provincialgovernment announced theClayoquot Sound Land-UseDecision. The area is about262,000 hectares, includingportions of the Arrowsmith TSA.This decision increased protectedareas and also established specialmanagement areas and generalintegrated management areas.The protected areas have nowbeen formally designated andthose located in the ArrowsmithTSA will be removed from thetimber harvesting land base.

In addition, as a result of the1994 Vancouver Island Land-

Use Plan, more than 46 newparks were created and

81 per cent of Crownlands and private,managed forest landshave been establishedas part of the ForestLand Reserve*. Newprotected areaswithin the

Arrowsmith TSA includethe Bowser Ecological Reserve,the Ladysmith Bog EcologicalReserve, and StampRiver/Money’s Pool ProvincialPark. As these areas have nowbeen formally designated, theyare not included in the timberharvesting land base. This timbersupply review also reflects land-use planning decisions (regardingforest practices) that have beenimplemented.

non-forested44%

not available for timber harvesting

26%

Crown-ownedforest land

available for timber harvesting

30%

* Timber harvesting land base – Crown

forest land within the timber supply area

where timber harvesting is considered

both acceptable and economically feasible.

* Forest land reserve – land designated

under the Forest Land Reserve Act for uses

that include timber production, recreation

and habitat.

Figure 1. Area breakdown for the

Arrowsmith TSA, 2001

Current allowable annual cut Following the last timber supplyreview, the chief forester set theAAC in the Arrowsmith TSA at400,000 cubic metres, effectiveDec. 30, 1996. This levelrepresented a decrease of 17 percent from the previous AAC andwas partitioned* as follows: ■ 380,000 cubic metres for the

area outside the ClayoquotSound Land-Use Decision

■ 13,700 cubic metres for thearea within the ClayoquotSound Land-Use Decision

■ 6,300 cubic metres for alderstands.

Socio-economic profile Regional economyThe forest industry in theArrowsmith TSA is an importantsource of employment and incomefor local residents. As Figure 2shows, forestry is the fourth-largest contributor to employ-ment, with 9.1 per cent of thetotal labour force. The publicsector is the leading employer,supporting about 42 per cent ofthe total labour force. Tourism isthe second-largest employer with14 per cent of the total labourforce, while construction is thirdwith nearly 11 per cent.

The forest sector supports num-erous other jobs in the area as aresult of companies and employeespurchasing goods and servicesfrom local businesses. Each 100full-time direct forestry jobs inthe Arrowsmith TSA are est-imated to support another 57 to 104 jobs, depending on theforestry activity (harvesting ortimber processing). In comparison,100 direct jobs in the tourism andbusiness travel sector supportanother 19 jobs, and in the publicsector another 38 jobs.

Table 2 illustrates the potentialcontribution of the forest industryassociated with the ArrowsmithTSA timber harvest to both theregional and provincial economies.Figures in this table are based on

forestry 9.1%

mining, oil & gas 0.5%

construction10.9%

high technology1.3%

public sector 42.4%

fishing &trapping1.5%

otherindustry8.8%

incometransfers9.0%

agriculture& food2.4%

tourism14.0%

Figure 2. South Island Forest District experienced labour force by sector, 1996.

Forest Industry economic contributionTSA Provincial

Direct employment(person years) 200 288

Total employment(person years) 330 640

Total employment income($1999 millions per year) 13.5 24.6

Provincial government revenues ($1999 millions per year) n.a. 12.4

Table 2. Summary of local and provincial

economic information associated with the

average 1998-2000 annual harvest—

Arrowsmith TSA, 2001.

* Partition – A portion of the AAC that

is attributable to certain types of timber

and/or terrain.

the average 1998-2000Arrowsmith TSA harvest of290,031 cubic metres per year.

Timber supply forecasts A timber supply computer modelwas used to project severalpossible timber supply forecastsfor the next 250 years. The basecase forecast illustrates the effectof current forest managementpractices on timber supply, usingthe best available information.The base case is not a recom-mendation for an AAC, butrather is one of many sources ofinformation the chief forester willconsider when setting the AAC.

As Figure 3 shows, the base caseharvest forecast for theArrowsmith TSA indicates aninitial harvest level of 357,000cubic metres per year—about 11per cent lower than the currentAAC. After one decade, theharvest level declines by 11 percent per decade so that by thefourth decade from now itreaches 263,000 cubic metres peryear. After seven decades theharvest increases by nine per centto the long-term harvest level of286,250 cubic metres per year.The initial base case forecast hasthree components:■ 6,300 cubic metres per year for

harvesting alder forests for thenext 10 years;

■ 11,000 cubic metres per yearwithin Clayoquot Sound (thecurrent level is 13,700 cubicmetres); and

■ 339,700 cubic metres per yearfrom coniferous* forestsoutside Clayoquot Sound (thecurrent level is 380,000 cubicmetres).

Several changes have occurredsince the 1995 timber supplyanalysis that affect the base case

timber supply forecast. The neteffect of these changes is a 12 percent decrease in the size of thetimber harvesting land base.These changes include:■ implementation of the Forest

Practices Code, whichincreased areas set aside forriparian* reserves and wildlifetree patches, and limitedavailability of timber forharvesting in order to meetbiodiversity requirements;

■ new woodlots, communityforests, land exchanges forcompensation, in addition tothe creation of several parks asa result of the VancouverIsland Summary Land UsePlan; and

■ adjustments to account forfragmented parcels of Crownland that are difficult to accessand harvest.

Sensitivity analyses:examining uncertainty Because forests and forestmanagement are complex andconstantly changing, timbersupply analysts assess howtimber supply might be affectedby uncertainties in inventoryinformation and managementpractices. These uncertainties aregenerally examined through whatare called sensitivity analyses,which the chief forester will

*Coniferous–Coniferous trees have nee-

dles or scale-like leaves and are usually

‘evergreen’.

*Riparian– areas of land adjacent to wet-

lands or bodies of water, such as swamps,

streams, rivers or lakes.

400

500

100

200

300

050 10 15 20 25

harv

est

('000

m3 /

year

)

decades from now

initially 357, 000 m3/year—11% less than current AAC

286,250 m3/year

263,000 m3/year

11% per decade decline

current AAC

Figure 3. Base case timber supply

forecast,—Arrowsmith TSA, 2001

consider in determining an AAC.The sensitivity analyses areuseful for assessing how anychanges in information oruncertainties and risks mightaffect timber supply.

Some key sensitivity analyses forthe Arrowsmith TSA aredescribed below. For a completelisting of sensitivity analyses,please refer to the 2001Arrowsmith TSA AnalysisReport.

Uncertainty about the size of theland base available for harvestingUncertainty about the estimatedsize of the timber harvesting landbase is due to factors such asland-use decisions, fluctuations intimber prices, changes in thedefinition of unmerchantablespecies, and changes inharvesting, such as the recenttrend to variable retention. Thetimber harvesting land base inthe Arrowsmith TSA hasdecreased by 12 per cent sincethe last timber supply analysis.While the land base was reducedfor factors such as parks,protected areas, woodlots,community forests and landexchanges, it has also increaseddue to the inclusion of alderstands.

The timber harvesting land base sensitivity analyses wereperformed to provide informationto help evaluate the implicationsto timber supply of any newinformation that becomesavailable before the AACdetermination.

As Figure 4 indicates, if thetimber harvesting land base is 10per cent smaller than in the basecase, the initial forecasted harvestlevel may be eight per cent lowerthan in the base case. If thetimber harvesting land base is 10per cent larger, the initial harvestlevel may be 11 per cent higherthan in the base case.

Fragmentation of the timber harvesting land baseIn the Arrowsmith TSA, manysmall parcels of Crown land on the east coast of VancouverIsland are surrounded by privateland or are adjacent to commu-nities, making conventionalaccess for timber harvestingdifficult. Nearly nine per cent of the land available for timber

200

300

100

400

500

050 10 15 20 25

harv

est

('000

m3 /

year

)

base case — initially 357,000 m3/year

increase land base 10% — 300,000 m3/year

decrease land base 10% — 259,250 m3/year

decades from now

200

300

100

400

500

050 10 15 20 25

harv

est

('000

m3 /

year

)

base case — initially 357,000 m3/year

base case long-term harvest level 286,250 m3/year

remove fragmented land base 269,250 m3/year — 6% below base case

decades from now

Figure 4. Uncertainty about the size of the

land base available for harvesting—

Arrowsmith TSA, 2001

Figure 5. The effect of removing fragment-

ed areas from the timber harvesting land

base—Arrowsmith TSA, 2001

harvesting is fragmented in thisway. In the base case forecast,these fragmented areas areharvested at a slower rate.

As Figure 5 indicates, if thefragmented areas are removedfrom harvesting, the harvest levelfollows the base case forecast for20 years, then declines to mid-and long-term levels about sixper cent lower than the base caseforecast.

Uncertainty about the impacts of retention harvestingA number of companies in theArrowsmith TSA, along with theSmall Business Forest EnterpriseProgram, have started to usevariable retention harvesting*.Variable retention harvesting ischaracterized by smaller harvestopenings where some trees areretained in groups within theopenings or dispersed asindividual trees throughout theopenings, to help meet objectivesfor biodiversity, wildlife habitatand scenic values. The retentionof trees has an impact on thevolume of timber harvested, andon the volume of future stands.

Based on information from arecent review of variableretention harvesting practiceswithin the Arrowsmith TSA,timber volumes in the base caseforecast were reduced by

approximately 4.25 per cent toaccount for variable retentionharvesting. However, there is someuncertainty about the volume oftrees that may be retained. AsFigure 6 indicates, if the timbervolume retained was increased to8.5 per cent, the initial base caseharvest level may decline bythree per cent. If the timbervolume retained was reduced to2.1 per cent, the initial base caseharvest level could increase byfour per cent.

Community implicationsof changes in the AACThe implication of changes in theAAC for local communities is animportant consideration in theTimber Supply Review. TheArrowsmith TSA is a large anddiverse region comprised of anumber of areas with verydifferent economic dependencies.Given this wide-ranging economicstructure, the base case harvestforecast is not expected tosubstantially impact the region’seconomic stability.

Compared to the current AAC,an initial harvest forecast of357,000 cubic metres per year, if fully harvested and processed,would result in a reduction ofabout 40 direct person-years of work across the province.

200

300

100

400

500

050 10 15 20 25

harv

est

('000

m3 /

year

)

base case — initially 357,000 m3/year

decrease variable retention by one-half—4% above base case

double variable retention—3% below base case

decades from now

Figure 6. Uncertainty about variable

retention harvesting practices—

Arrowsmith TSA, 2001

* Variable retention harvesting–

a harvesting method that uses examples

from nature as models for retaining part

of the forest.

However, the actual 1998-2000harvest rate was approximately290,000 cubic metres per year, orabout 19 per cent lower than theinitial harvest forecast in the basecase. Given the actual averageharvest rate over the last threeyears, the impact on the region’seconomy may not be assignificant as projected.

Your input is neededEstablishing the AAC is animportant decision that requiresinformed and thoughtful publicinput. Feedback is welcomed onany aspect of this discussionpaper, the 2001 Arrowsmith TSAAnalysis Report and other issuesrelated to the timber supply inthe Arrowsmith TSA. ForestService staff would be pleased toanswer questions or discussconcerns that would help youprepare your response. Pleasesend your comments to the forestdistrict manager at the addressbelow. Your comments will beaccepted until Nov.13, 2001.

You may identify yourself on theresponse if you wish. If you do,you are reminded that responseswill be subject to the Freedom ofInformation and Protection ofPrivacy Act and may be madepublic. If the responses are madepublic, personal identifiers will beremoved before the responses arereleased.

A summary of public commentswill be attached to the AACrationale and will be availablefrom the district office when thechief forester’s AACdetermination is announced.

For more information contactand/or mail your comments to:

District ManagerBC Forest ServiceSouth Island Forest District4885 Cherry Creek RoadPort Alberni, BC V9Y 8E9

Phone: 250 731-3000, Fax: 250 731-3010

Or electronically mail toDan.Biggs@gems1.gov.bc.ca

Visit our Web site atwww.for.gov.bc.ca/tsb

The Chief Forester’sResponsibilityDetermining the AACs for publicforest lands in British Columbiais the responsibility of theprovince’s chief forester. In thislengthy and complex process, thechief forester considers technicalreports, analyses and publicinput, as well as government’ssocial and economic objectives.

This responsibility is required bylegislation in the Forest Act,Section 8. It states that the chiefforester shall specifically considerthe following factors:

1.The rate of timber productionthat may be sustained from thearea, taking into account:

■ the composition of the forestand its expected rate ofgrowth

■ the time that it will take theforest to become re-established

■ silviculture treatments,including reforestation

■ standards of timberutilization

■ constraints on the amount oftimber that may be produceddue to use of the forest forother purposes.

2.The short- and long-termimplications to the province ofalternative rates of timberharvesting from the area.

3.The nature, productioncapabilities and timberrequirements of established andproposed processing facilities.

4.The economic and socialobjectives of the Crown for thearea, region and province—asexpressed by the minister offorests.

5.Abnormal insect or diseaseinfestations, and major salvageprograms planned for thetimber on the area.

Some of these factors can bereadily measured and analyzed—others cannot. Ultimately, thechief forester’s determination isan independent professionaljudgment based on the bestavailable information. By law, thechief forester is independent ofthe political process, and is notdirected by the minister of forestswhen determining AACs. Inthese determinations, the chiefforester considers relevantinformation from all sources.

Why the current AAC may be higher than the long-termharvest level.Some concern has been expressedthat the AACs are higher thanthe long-term harvest level.There are two main factors whichexplain this difference:

■ In the short term, harvestingtakes place in older forestswhich have accumulated hightimber volumes by growing fora long time. Future harvestingon the same sites will takeplace in second-growth forestsat younger ages, yielding lowervolumes per hectare.

■ Where the long-term harvestlevel is significantly below the current AAC, the chiefforester’s strategy is to phase in the lower level over severaldeterminations to allowcommunities which rely on theforest sector to avoid suddeneconomic disruptions and toplan for the future—providedthe long-term harvest level isnot jeopardized.

Background Information Regarding TSR