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Art of Insight in Science and Engineering Sanjoy Mahajan MIT EECS & Office of Digital Learning mit.edu/sanjoy/www/ [email protected] xTalk, MIT, 2 December 2014

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Page 1: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Art of Insight in Science and Engineering

Sanjoy MahajanMIT EECS & Office of Digital Learning

mit.edu/sanjoy/www/[email protected]

xTalk, MIT, 2 December 2014

Page 2: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

I hope to foster insight and contribute to the commons

Page 3: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Insight is hard to define but easy to recognize

You wonder whether your child is sick, and take her temperature.Raise your hand if the following temperature worries you:

Page 4: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Insight is hard to define but easy to recognize

You wonder whether your child is sick, and take her temperature.Raise your hand if the following temperature worries you:

40 ∘C

Page 5: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Insight is hard to define but easy to recognize

You wonder whether your child is sick, and take her temperature.Raise your hand if the following temperature worries you:

104 ∘F

Page 6: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Insight is hard to define but easy to recognize

243 + 243 + 2433 = ?

Page 7: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Insight is hard to define but easy to recognize

Page 8: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Insight is hard to define but easy to recognize

?

Page 9: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Without insight, problem solving turns into a random walk

Page 10: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Without insight, problem solving turns into a random walk

Page 11: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

The book offers readers a toolchest to foster insight

lossless lossy

proportionalreasoning

symmetry/conservation

dimensionalanalysis

to master complexity

lumping probability easy cases springs

organize it discard it

abstractiondivide/conquer

Page 12: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Here is an insight-based approach to a famous problem

Page 13: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

How much energy is released in this bomb blast?

Page 14: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

How much energy is released in this bomb blast?

Page 15: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

How much energy is released in this bomb blast?

Page 16: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Here is a selection of the fireball data

𝑡 (ms) 𝑅 (m)

3.26 59.04.61 67.3

15.0 106.562.0 185.0

Page 17: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

There is a famous, very complicated analysis

Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion. I 161

The equation of motion is - au au p ay at ar p ar

a a Substituting from (1), (2) and (3) in (4) and writing fl, O1 for fi,

_-(31+ 27]R1?-B) R_ + R4( + Po = 0. (5) dt Po

dR This can be satisfied if = AR-, (6) dt

where A is a constant, and

-A(-51 + 1) + ' +Pof = 0. (7) Po ?

The equation of continuity is

ap ap a/u 2u\ ( a-+-+pu -+- = 0. at ar \ar r/

Substituting from (1), (2), (3) and (6), (8) becomes

-A'+ i^ + I = 0. (9) - Ak' + ~k' 0 + 3 (b'0 + *( St =1 0 . (9)

The equation of state for a perfect gas is

(a+ ; )(P -) = O. (10)

where y is the ratio of specific heats. Substituting from (1), (2), (3) and (6), (10) becomes

A (3fi+,f)+ '(-fl I( A+01)- = 0. (11)

The equations (7), (9) and (11) may be reduced to a non-dimensional form by substituting f = fa2/A, (12)

<0 = 01/A, (13)

where a is the velocity of sound in air so that a2 = ypolpo. The resulting equations which contain only one parameter, namely, y, are

lf' t -( )=il -t 30 ~(7a)

~,' 0_ '?2/ 3E'^~~~~ /0'~+2 , 2(9a)

3 f f --lf

3f+ +f'+ (-+)-<=. (1a)

Eliminating ?' from (1a) by means of (7a) and (9a) the equation for calculatingf' whenf, 0, ?, and I are given is

f'{ )2 _f/If} = f{- 3 ?+0(3 + 1) - 2yq2/r}. (14) 11-2

Page 18: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

One route to insight is dimensional analysis

lossless lossy

proportionalreasoning

symmetry/conservation

dimensionalanalysis

to master complexity

lumping probability easy cases springs

organize it discard it

abstractiondivide/conquer

Page 19: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

One route to insight is dimensional analysis

𝐸 ML2T−2 blast energy𝑅 L blast radius𝑡 T time since blast

𝜌air ML−3 air density

Page 20: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

One route to insight is dimensional analysis

𝐸 ML2T−2 blast energy𝑅 L blast radius𝑡 T time since blast

𝜌air ML−3 air density

→𝐸𝜌air

has dimensions of L5T−2.

Page 21: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

One route to insight is dimensional analysis

𝐸 ML2T−2 blast energy𝑅 L blast radius𝑡 T time since blast

𝜌air ML−3 air density

→𝐸𝜌air

has dimensions of L5T−2.

→𝐸𝑡2

𝜌air𝑅5 is dimensionless.

Page 22: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

The dimensionless group makes a powerful prediction

𝐸𝑡2

𝜌air𝑅5 ∼ 1

𝑅 ∼ (𝐸𝜌air

)1/5

𝑡2/5.

Page 23: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

But the result still feels like magic

Dimensional analysis tells us what must be true, but not why.

Page 24: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

We can get the “why” insight from a physical model

Page 25: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

We can build the model using two of our tools

lossless lossy

proportionalreasoning

symmetry/conservation

dimensionalanalysis

to master complexity

lumping probability easy cases springs

organize it discard it

abstractiondivide/conquer

Page 26: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

The model is based on the speed of the air molecules

Page 27: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

The model is based on the speed of the air molecules

energy ∼ mass × speed2.

R→ speed ∼ √energy

mass ∼ √𝐸

𝜌air𝑅3 .

Page 28: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

The speed leads us to the fireball size

energy ∼ mass × speed2.

R→ speed ∼ √energy

mass ∼ √𝐸

𝜌air𝑅3 .

radius 𝑅 ∼ speed × time 𝑡.

radius 𝑅 ∼ √𝐸

𝜌air𝑅3 × 𝑡.

Page 29: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

The two ways to represent the sizeconnect the size and time to the blast energy

energy ∼ mass × speed2.

R→ speed ∼ √energy

mass ∼ √𝐸

𝜌air𝑅3 .

radius 𝑅 ∼ speed × time 𝑡.

radius 𝑅 ∼ √𝐸

𝜌air𝑅3 × 𝑡.

→𝐸𝑡2

𝜌air𝑅5 ∼ 1.

Page 30: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

The scaling prediction fits the data on the fireball size

𝑅 ∼ (𝐸𝜌air

)1/5

𝑡2/5.

3.26

59

4.61

67.3

15

106.5

62

185

0.4 slope

t (ms)

R (m)

Page 31: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

The scaling prediction gives an estimate for the blast energy

𝐸 ∼ 7×1013 joules → 𝐸 ∼ 18 kilotons of TNT.

Page 32: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

The estimate is more accurate than we can expect

The classified value for the blast energy was 20 kilotons.

Page 33: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Insight is more important than accuracy

Page 34: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

For almost 20 years, I wanted to publish under a free license

Page 35: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

This book draws from the commons in software

compiling text to PDF ConTeXt, LuaTeX, TexGyre Pagella

compiling figures to PDF Asymptote, MetaPost, Python

editing source files GNU Emacs

managing source files Mercurial

managing compilations GNU Make

underlying operating system GNU/Linux (Debian)

Page 36: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Just this part of the commons is huge

Roughly 20 million lines of code.

Page 37: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

A commons has three characteristics

1. resource that is easy to draw from but hard to exclude others from

2. people who want long-term access to the resource (“commoners”)

3. rules for managing the resource

(George Caffentzis, “Russell Scholar Lecture IV,” 2008)

Page 38: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

For much of the software commons, the rules arethe GNU General Public License (GPL)

Page 39: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

For this book, the rules are the Creative Commons license

Creative Commons CCAttribution BYNonCommerical NCShareAlike SA

CC-BY-NC-SA: same license as OpenCourseWare

Page 40: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

The commons, a part of our infrastructure,is essential to public welfare

Charter of the Forest (September 11, 1217): protection of rights to thecommons

Simon Patten (1852–1922): importance of reducing economic rent(difference between price and necessary cost of production)

free software, OpenCourseWare, MOOCs, …

Page 41: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

In 1815, Jefferson set us a riddle

[My] peculiar character, too, is that no one possesses [me] the less,because every other possesses the whole of [me].

Who am I?

Page 42: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Solution to the riddle: I am an idea

Its peculiar character, too, is that no one possesses the less, becauseevery other possesses the whole of it.

He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself withoutlessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives lightwithout darkening me.

That ideas should freely spread from one to another over the globe,for the moral and mutual instruction of man, and improvement of hiscondition, seems to have been peculiarly and benevolently designed bynature[.]

Page 43: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

I hope to have fostered insight and contributed to the commons

Page 44: Art of Insight in Science and Engineeringweb.mit.edu/xtalks/xTalk-S-Mahajan-slides-12-10-14.pdfThereisafamous,verycomplicatedanalysis Formation of a blast wave by a very intense explosion

Art of Insight in Science and Engineering

Sanjoy MahajanMIT EECS & Office of Digital Learning

mit.edu/sanjoy/www/[email protected]

xTalk, MIT, 2 December 2014

Slides produced using free software:GNU Emacs, GNU Make, LuaTEX, and ConTEXt(on Debian GNU/Linux)