artificially intelligent futures master

Artificially Intelligent Futures in AsiaDr Michael Jackson, Shaping TomorrowThird Asia-Pacific Futurist NetworkApril 20/21 2017

Shaping Tomorrow

2 Research method Automated horizon scan using Artificial

Intelligence from Shaping Tomorrow’s system

AI extraction of AI forecasts from articles, reports and PowerPoint sources. Extracted and analyzed by our robot from verbatim forecasts taken daily from articles, reports and social media using embedded AI and text analytics

Export of Forecasts to evidence spreadsheet

Visualize Theme identification Construction of the presentation in drivers

and themes format from eyeballing the Export and selecting relevant verbatim Forecasts to this presentation

Twitter style format rather than dense reporting

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3 Search resultsSTEP 2 Produce search results and extract evidence and forecasts for the following slides

1000 Forecasts reviewed for this exercise

4 Visualize

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Shaping Tomorrow

6 What’s Next in Artificial Intelligence? The next four years will be characterized by rapid

developments in the fields of artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, virtual and augmented reality, connected homes, and smart cities and many other fields.

The key takeaway:

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7 Capabilities By 2020, 85% of customer

interactions will be managed without a human.

Artificial intelligence will overtake human beings not just in terms of knowledge, but in terms of intelligence.

Artificial intelligence will reach human levels by around 2029 (The Singularity by 2045?)

Within the next ten years today's supercomputer like Watson will shrink to the size of a sugar cube.

By 2019, startups will overtake Amazon, Google, IBM and Microsoft in driving the AI economy with disruptive business solutions.

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8 Sensors There will be an estimated six billion connected devices actively requesting

support from artificial intelligence platforms by 2018. By 2019, over 110 million consumer devices with embedded intelligent

assistants will be installed in U.S. households. Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) app development programs will begin to

outgrow / outpace consumer IoT app development programs within the next three years.

Spending on IoT endpoints and services is predicted to reach nearly $2 trillion. By 2020 annual revenues could exceed$ 470B for the IoT vendors selling the

hardware, software and comprehensive solutions.

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9 Robots The impact of robotics and artificial intelligence in

the next 20 years will be a much more concentrated version of the steady, incremental displacement that was common throughout the 20th century.

Supersmart robots will outnumber humans and more than a trillion objects will be connected to the internet within three decades.

By 2025, advanced robotics could have a worldwide economic impact in the range of US$1.7 trillion to 4.5 trillion annually.

Robotic pollinators could be trained to learn pollination paths using global positioning systems and artificial intelligence.

Precision agriculture will help with the need to feed 9 billion people by 2050.

10 Software Millions of customer service

representatives around the world will lose their jobs. (Chatbots/Swiping)

Chatbots will become even more prevalent with the adoption of technologies such as Siri, Google Assistant and Alexa and ST’s Athena

2017 will be the year computers and humans start talking to each other.

In 2017, cognitive chatbots will set the new golden standard in high quality customer service for retailers.

The global Intelligent Virtual Assistant market is predicted to reach £9.64 billion ($12.28 billion) by 2024.

AI types of programs will proactively seek support services by 2018 and that 40 percent of mobile interactions will depend on smart agents by 2020.

Artificial intelligence will be key in keeping hate speech and graphic content off Facebook.

In the next few years, integrated technology will have a big impact on commercial kitchen design.

Machine learning in cybersecurity will boost big data, intelligence, and analytics spending to $96 billion by 2021.

Shaping Tomorrow’s Athena. A cognitive, empathetic, by-your-side teaching companion, virtual coach, digital consultant, and site guideShaping Tomorrow

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11 Vehicles There will be 380m connected cars by

2021. Navigation, cameras, radar and more

will use AI to understand the world around them.

AI will displace people in driving-focused positions such as truck drivers, delivery drivers and taxi drivers.

Cars are becoming increasingly intelligent and by 2018 one in five cars on the road will be self-aware and able to discern and share information on their mechanical health, global position and status of their surroundings.

Ford Motor Company will be investing $1 billion into the artificial intelligence firm Argo AI over the next 5 years.

Rise of the empathetic vehicle

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12 Smart cities

Leading smart cities around the world will employ intelligent RSUs to help smooth traffic flow and increase safety.

The rise of smart cities will lead to more intelligent routing, decreased traffic, and easier delivery processes.

IoT deployments will create $550 billion in economic value for cities worldwide in 2019.

Buildings will talk to each other.

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13 Smart homes 69% of homes will be installed with a

connected device of some kind by 2019.

Ford will let drivers access their home Alexa devices from the road.

One of the areas in focus is home safety and security where Panasonic's security cameras and sensors to detect movement, glass breakage, door and window opening will be coupled with Watson's cognitive computing capabilities.

By 2022 there could be nearly 500 smart devices that can be connected to a smart home (furniture, fridges, food)

14 Work By 2020 50% of all business

analytics software will incorporate prescriptive analytics built on cognitive computing technology.

In 2017, modern BI will become the top priority for global enterprises, early-stage startups, and everything in between.

Most AI investment in 2017 will be targeted towards e-commerce.

By 2018, 20% of all business content will be authored by machines and 5% of all economic transactions will involve autonomous software agents.

By 2018, 35% of line-of-business managers will demand intelligent enterprise applications to improve business process and resource utilization.

Virtual home assistants like Echo and Alexa will enter the workplace, further personalizing interactions and automating meetings.

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Shaping Tomorrow

15 Jobs Many commentators see a global

depression coming because soon robots will eliminate millions of jobs.

Artificial intelligence will cause the loss of 7.1 million jobs across 15 leading economies over the next five years.

The rise of robots and AI will see a net loss of 5.1 million jobs over five years in 15 of the world's leading economies.

Intelligent agents and related robots will only have eliminated 6% of jobs by 2021.

There will be one million more IT jobs than computer science students in the U.S. by 2020.

Deloitte predicts automation will contribute to the need for far fewer traditional lawyers and legal sector jobs.

AI will encourage some universities to employ fewer faculty and graduate students.

90% of journalism will be computerized by 2030.

83 percent of jobs that pay less than $20 an hour are under threat from automation.

Data scientists in the US can expect a six-figure starting salary.

16 Health Machine learning could soon be

indispensable to healthcare. AI will know you're sick before you do Researchers have developed a deep

learning algorithm that can predict autism in babies with a relatively high 81 percent accuracy and 88 percent sensitivity.

Robots for cognitive eldercare that will track and monitor vital activities and general health status in the day-to-day life of seniors much like an in-home human caregiver would.

IBM will be creating a prototype of a machine learning system that can help mental health professionals diagnose patients just from the content of their speech.

Artificial intelligence systems will generate $6.7 billion in global revenue from healthcare by 2021.

Wider availability of intelligent health devices will save the US health system an estimated $50 billion by 2018.

Healthcare IT will see tremendous growth at a CAGR of 16.1 percent until 2025.

New business models such as device-as-a-service (DaaS) and health-as-a-service will emerge.

Advances in cognitive computing capabilities will bring pharmacy data, healthcare data and even non-traditional data together to predict individual patient health outcomes.

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Shaping Tomorrow

17 Manufacturing and logistics Robotic production lines like Tesla's

and Amazon’s will continue to eat away at manufacturing jobs.

Researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have built and trained machine learning algorithms to predict defect behavior in certain intermetallic compounds with high accuracy.

Twizzlers and eventually other Hershey's candies are going to get smaller now that Hershey's is adding IoT sensors to its candy-making manufacturing facilities to make the process more efficient through machine learning.

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18 Education 2017 will see the proliferation of learning mechanisms. Just-in-time education, wherever you are! Gartner research predicts algorithms will positively alter the behavior of

more than one billion global workers by 2020.

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19 Economy The rapid rise of disruptive

technologies like artificial intelligence, automation, and big data could save the global economy between $900bn to $1.6tr by 2035.

The market for Artificial Intelligence-based systems will grow to $70bn by 2020.

Corporate spending on AI technology will surge to $47 billion in 2020.

Machines will not be able to automatically file taxes with the IRS for a few years.

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20 Market The global AI market will grow at an

astounding rate of 62.9 percent from 2016 to 2022 when it will reach $16.06 billion.

Forrester predicts enterprise investments in AI will increase 300% in 2017.

AI will revolutionize marketing by 2020.

Expect to see a lot more marketers using content automation in 2017.

The global market in content analytics, discovery and cognitive systems software will more than double from $4.5 billion in 2014 to $9.2 billion in 2019.5 By 2020.

There's a great likelihood that by 2022 artificial intelligence will be able to create brand identities and experiences.

21 Retail Over the next five years a growing

number of retailers will buy into AI as it becomes more affordable.

In 2017, physical and digital retail will merge entirely to create one consistent shopping experience.

H & R Block's customers will soon be able to get tax advice from IBM's artificial intelligence-powered seer Watson.

KPMG has predicted the UK could see an AI-based insurer within the next decade.

Automated retail in Amazon Go or the connected home appliances of Echo Alex are just the tip of the way new things

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Shaping Tomorrow

22 Science Applying machine learning to

condensed matter and statistical physics could open entirely new opportunities for research and real-world application.

Creating AI agents that co-operate with others could lead to systems that can develop policies and real-world applications.

A breakthrough from MIT researchers could see AI used to more quickly and effectively design new drug compounds

23 Asia China is setting up fully automated

robotic factories in the hope that becoming more price competitive will let it continue to be the manufacturing capital of the world.

AI will accelerate expected growth in Japan from 0.8 percent to 2.7 percent in 2035.

By 2020, India will become a country with the largest developer population in the world.

Increasing investments to develop infrastructural facilities throughout Asia Pacific (especially in nations such as China, Japan, and India) is expected to nurture exponential growth opportunities for the intelligent transportation system market during the forecast period.

In China, fried chicken franchise KFC recently unveiled its first "smart restaurant" that uses facial recognition to predict what meal customers are likely to want.

Companies working on the development of energy intelligence solutions are expected to gain lucrative growth prospects in Asia Pacific.

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24 Alternative futures At some point in the next century

artificial intelligence will give rise to the fifth revolution.

Considering the opportunities of advanced machine learning using Twitter's vast data set could lead to possibilities for more interactive content on the platform.

The future of the internet is going to be under threat once the world's militaries get good at artificial intelligence.

In the next few years, things like manual hand-drawn measurements will hopefully be replaced by AI.

Brain emulation based AI will become feasible and then cheap enough to completely change and take over the world economy.

The population of intelligent connected devices will have competing consequences as Smart Cities become a reality.

The possibility of using android and AI technology for remote contact with a distant lover is on the way.

Quantum computers make current AI efforts look like toys!

Gates, Hawkin et al warn of the dangers of AI running amok!

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Shaping Tomorrow

25 EthicsExpect to see an increasing number of corporate AI ethics statements

26How to use these slides

Use the spreadsheet and/or the slides to collaboratively determine your Options on STShaping Tomorrow

27 Then rank your Options collaboratively

Then click the Option titles to develop robust strategies for agreed Options

From a standing start a team can develop their agreed options in less than 4 hours!

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28

Q. How long did this presentation take to produce?

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29

A. 80 minutes from scratch!

30 to 40 times faster than manual methods!

With publishing 3 hours (sourcing the pictures took longer than finding the future!)

IMAGINE WHAT COULD BE DONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS!

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30 Thanks for listening

Questions?

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