Teaching Plan 1

UCSI UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND INFORMATION SCIENCE (FoBIS)

Course Outline cum Teaching Plan

1. Course Code & Title:

AS104 APPLIED PROBABILITY

2. Programme: Bachelor of Science (Hons) Actuarial Science & Bachelor of Science (Hons) Actuarial Science and Finance

3. Semester and Year:

May-Aug 2016

4. Credit Hour & Contact Hours:

4 credit hours Lecture: 42 hours Tutorial: 21 hours

5. Lecturer: Jeff Lai Wan Fei (jefflai@ucsiuniversity.edu.my)

6. Tutor: Jeff Lai Wan Fei 7. Mode of

Delivery: Lectures and Tutorials

8. Objective: This subject is aimed at giving students a solid foundation for probability theory and making statistical inferences.

9. Learning Outcome:

After completing this module, students should be able to:

1) Find probability distribution of function of random variables by methods of distribution functions, transformations and moment-generating functions;

2) Apply probabilistic distribution theory to solve problems in industries; 3) Perform point estimation and hypothesis testing including two-sample t-test; 4) Perform chi-square tests for independence and homogeneity.

10. Reading List: Main Text: 1. Robert V.Hogg, Elliot Tanis (2014) Probability and Statistical Inference, 9th Ed, Prentice Hall. ISBN: 9780321584755

Additional Text : 1. Wackerly, D.D., Mendenhall III, W., & Scheaffer, R. L. (2007). Mathematical Statistics with Applications. (7th ed.). Duxbury Press ISBN: 9780495110811

Teaching Plan 2

11. Method of Assessment:

No. Method of Assessment Total 1. Coursework

a) Midterm (20%) b) Online quiz (5%) c) Group assignment (15%)

40%

2. Final Examination 60% GRAND TOTAL 100%

12. Remark: 1. Students are strongly encouraged to attend all lectures and tutorials for the efficient learning of the course.

LECTURES: There will be 1.5-hour face-to-face lectures per week. TUTORIALS: Every week students should attend a one and the half hour tutorial

which is a problem-solving session, where your tutor will assist you with any problems you may had trouble completing.

2. Students are expected to bring the textbook and a (non-programmable) scientific

calculator for both the lecture and tutorial sessions. 3. Students are required to sit for the test on the scheduled dates. If a student cannot

attend the test due to an emergency or illness, then every effort must be made to contact the lecturer before the test , or, if this is not possible, within 2 days of the test date. Upon returning to the school, proper documentation (Medical certificate must be either from UCSI clinic or government hospitals. Others will not be entertained) must be presented. Failure to do so will result in a grade of zero for the missed test.

4. Only stationery and (non-programmable) calculator are allowed during tests, NO

other aids are allowed, this includes cell phones and electronic dictionaries. Students are required to arrived on time for the test. At the discretion of the lecturer, students arriving more than 30 minutes after the commencement of a test may be declined the opportunity of writing it and be given a mark of zero.

5. Assignments MUST be submitted on time (before 5pm on the due date). Failure to

do so will result a grade of zero or part thereof or as determined by your lecturer. 6. Attendance is very important even tough it is not an explicit component of grading.

Do not miss any class if at all possible; missing a class requires a lot of make up effort from you. As a reminder, 80% attendance is compulsory requirement to eligible to sit for final exam. Students will be barred from final examination due to not fulfilling the attendance requirement.

7. Please be on time for class and do not leave until the class ends, unless you

obtained prior permission. Please avoid disruptive or inappropriate behaviour in class. During exam, use your own stationery and calculator.

Teaching Plan 3

Lecture, Tutorial and Assignment Plan Week Lecture Topic Tutorial Topic Assignment Reference

1

Chapter 1A: Multivariate Distributions

No Mon tutorial class (Replacement Labour Day)

Main Text Chapter 4

2

Chapter 1B: Multivariate Distributions

Tutorial 1 Main Text Chapter 4

3

Chapter 1C: Multivariate Distributions

Tutorial 1 Main Text Chapter 4

4 Chapter 1D: Multivariate Distributions

Tutorial 1

Main Text Chapter 4

5

Chapter 2A: Functions of Random Variables Chapter 2B: Functions of Random Variables

Tutorial 1

Online quiz (4/6/2016 Sat)

Main Text Chapter 5

6

Chapter 2C: Functions of Random Variables Tutorial 2

Tutorial 2

7

Tutorial 2 Midterm - 15/6/2016 (Wed) 12:30pm – 2pm

Tutorial 2 Main Text Chapter 5

8 Chapter 4A: Estimation and Hypothesis Testing

Tutorial 2

Main Text Chapter 5

9

Chapter 4B: Estimation and Hypothesis Testing

Tutorial 4 Additional Text Chapter 8 & 10

10

Chapter 4C: Estimation and Hypothesis Testing Hari Raya (Day 1) – 6/7/2016 (No Wed class)

Tutorial 4 Additional Text Chapter 8 & 10

11 Chapter 3: Sampling Distribution Chapter 5: Chi-Square test

Tutorial 4 Assignment due date: 15/7/2016 (online submission)

Additional Text Chapter 8 & 10

12

Chapter 5: Chi-Square test Tutorial 5

Tutorial 3 Additional Text Chapter 7

Teaching Plan 4

Lecture, Tutorial and Assignment Plan Week Lecture Topic Tutorial Topic Assignment Reference

13

Revision Learning SPSS

14

Study Week

-