asea - september, 2005 1 uganda securities exchange ltd country report - uganda

ASEA - September, 2005 1

UGANDA SECURITIES EXCHANGE LtdUGANDA SECURITIES EXCHANGE Ltd

Country Report - UGANDACountry Report - UGANDA


Uganda – Geography

Landlocked East African country. Home to the source of the NileLandlocked East African country. Home to the source of the Nile

Surface area: Surface area: 236,040 sq. km 236,040 sq. km LandLand 199,710 sq. km (84.6%)199,710 sq. km (84.6%) Water Water 36,330 sq. km (15.4%) - including Lake Victoria 36,330 sq. km (15.4%) - including Lake Victoria

Natural resources:Natural resources: Arable land; climate; Copper; cobalt; limestone; hydro electricity; salt; gold; Arable land; climate; Copper; cobalt; limestone; hydro electricity; salt; gold;

wildlife, vegetation and terrain; tropical forestswildlife, vegetation and terrain; tropical forests

TerrainTerrain Mostly plateau with a rim of mountains – Rwenzori, Elgon etc and rift valley Mostly plateau with a rim of mountains – Rwenzori, Elgon etc and rift valley

escarpment to the West. escarpment to the West.

Geographical Summary – landlocked, fertile, well watered tropical Geographical Summary – landlocked, fertile, well watered tropical country with many rivers, lakes. country with many rivers, lakes.


Uganda – People

Population – Population – 27.2 million27.2 million (2005 estimates) (2005 estimates)

Population growth rate – Population growth rate – 3.31%3.31% (2005 estimates) (2005 estimates)

Life expectancy – Life expectancy – 46 years46 years (2004 estimates) (2004 estimates)

Over 23 recognized ethnic groups Over 23 recognized ethnic groups

Official language – Official language – English English


Economy at a glance – Inflation

INFLATION RATESJuly 2004 - June 2005

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

MONTHS

ANNU

AL

% C

HANGE

Headline Inflation

UnderlyingInflation

Headline inflationHeadline inflation

High of 12.6% in April due to High of 12.6% in April due to sharp food price increases as a sharp food price increases as a result of unfavourable weatherresult of unfavourable weather

Six months upward trend broken Six months upward trend broken in May with rates falling to 10% in May with rates falling to 10% as at end June. as at end June.

Underlying inflationUnderlying inflation

Fluctuated within the 4-5% range Fluctuated within the 4-5% range before taken on a steady upward before taken on a steady upward trend after April trend after April

June inflation recorded at 6.5%June inflation recorded at 6.5%


Economy at a glance – Interest rates

TREASURY BILLS DISCOUNT RATES July 2004 - June 2005

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Months

Rat

e

91 day

182 day

364 day

Rates maintained relative Rates maintained relative stability throughout the stability throughout the period under review period under review

Rates as at June 30Rates as at June 30thth, 2005, 2005 8.98% 8.98% - 91 - 91

dayday 10.71% 10.71% - 182 - 182

dayday 13.14% 13.14% - 364 - 364

dayday

Government now executing Government now executing its new policy to reduce the its new policy to reduce the volume of T-Bill issuances volume of T-Bill issuances


Economy at a glance – Foreign Exchange rate

Exchange rate hit a low of Exchange rate hit a low of Ushs 1,711Ushs 1,711 per dollar between per dollar between February and March, 2005February and March, 2005

Sharp increase to Sharp increase to Ushs 1,778Ushs 1,778 in the IFEM in the month April. June IFEM levels at in the IFEM in the month April. June IFEM levels at Ushs 1,738. Ushs 1,738.

INTER BANK FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES July 2004 - June 2005

1,660

1,680

1,700

1,720

1,740

1,760

1,780

1,800

J UL AUG SE P OCT NOV DE C J AN FE B MAR AP R MAY J UN

MONTHS

EXCHANGE RATE


Stock Market Indicators – USE ALSI

Base value (December Base value (December 2002)2002) – 100– 100

August 2004 end value August 2004 end value – – 353.71353.71

All time high (July 12All time high (July 12thth, , 2005)2005)

- 731.91- 731.91

July 2005 end value July 2005 end value - - 640.53640.53

USE All Share Index Timeline - August 2004 - J uly 2005

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

3-Aug 23-Aug 12-Sep 2-Oct 22-Oct 11-Nov 1-Dec 21-Dec 10-J an 30-J an 19-Feb 11-Mar 31-Mar 20-Apr 10-May 30- 19-J un 9-J ul

alsi


Market Statistics – MIMS

NEW DEVELOPMENTSNEW DEVELOPMENTS

May activity was the highest ever recorded in the History of USEMay activity was the highest ever recorded in the History of USE

Volumes for the quarter covering April – June 2005 reported a 470% from Volumes for the quarter covering April – June 2005 reported a 470% from the preceding quarter. the preceding quarter.

MONTHLY STATISTICS – February to July 2005. MONTHLY STATISTICS – February to July 2005.

Februar

y March April May June July

Turnover (Ushs) 13,105,860 449,921,770 28,462,970 2,215,056,780 451,830,130 383,897,230

Shares Traded 33,740 1,522,411 752,54 4,582,075 1,162,047 1,063,370

Deals 25 62 42 129 65 42


Market Statistics - FISMS

NEW DEVELOPMENTSNEW DEVELOPMENTS Two new 3 year bonds listed in April and July.Two new 3 year bonds listed in April and July. 2 year bond listed in June 2 year bond listed in June Total amount issued to date stands at Total amount issued to date stands at Ushs 535 bnUshs 535 bn

Issue No Issue Size

(Ushs)

Issue Date Current Coupon

Total turnover for the year

Primary Dealer Indicative rates (%)

Best bid Best Ask

FXD 1/2004/2 80bn 14/01/2004 10% - 15.00 13.25

FXD 2/2004/3 80bn 25/02/2004 10.25% - 17.25 15.50

FXD 3/2004/5 40bn 24/03/2005 10.75% 200,000,000 21.25 13.50

FXD 4/2004/10 15bn 19/05/2004 11.00% - 18.00 15.70

FXD 5/2004/2 60bn 30/06/2004 10% 300,000,000 15.00 13.25

FXD 6/2004/3 90bn 07/10/2004 10.25 - 17.25 15.50

FXD 1/2005/2 100bn 27/01/2005 10% 300,000,000 15.00 13.25

FXD 2/2005/3 25bn 21/04/2005 10.25% 1,403,000,000 17.25 15.50

FXD 3/2005/2 20bn 16/06/2005 10% - 17.50 14.00

FXD 4/2005/3 25 bn 28/07/2005 10.25% - 15.25 14.65

GOVERNMENT BOND SCHEDULE – April to July 2005


Market Statistics – Yield Curve

Tenor Rate

91 day 8.49

182 day 10.49

364 day 11.99

2 year 14.75

3 year 15.53

5 year 12.8

10 year 13.48

Yeild Curve as at 1st August, 2005

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

91 day 182 day 364 day 2 year 3 year 5 year 10 year

Rate


New developments – Sovereign Rating

Rating received in Rating received in March, 2005March, 2005 from from Fitch RatingsFitch Ratings

Long term Rating Long term Rating - B- B

Short Term Rating Short Term Rating - B- B

Local Currency long term rating Local Currency long term rating - B- B

Country CeilingCountry Ceiling - B- B


Public Education and awareness – February to July,2005

Implementation of the communication strategy – Promotional materials – final consignment, June 2005. Jinja Open day Event (June,2005) Secondary Schools education Programme – School visits in Eastern

Uganda; Tertiary Institutes’ Education Programme (TIEP) – University visits to

the Exchange Eastern Regional Trade Fair (May/June, 2005)(May/June, 2005)

Facts behind the Figures conferences - BOBU, UCL, DFCU

Corporate Social Responsibility Initiative launched – June 2005

Publication of 2 quarterly bulletin


Upcoming initiatives

General thrust for the newly started financial year – General thrust for the newly started financial year – “Business development- “Business development- development of revenue centers”development of revenue centers”

Completion of the CDS projectCompletion of the CDS project

New listings – Equity, government and corporate debtNew listings – Equity, government and corporate debt

Proposed cross listingsProposed cross listings

Public education and awarenessPublic education and awareness

Commissioning of a Financial Training Center at USECommissioning of a Financial Training Center at USE

Bourse GameBourse Game

asea - september, 2005 1 uganda securities exchange ltd country report - uganda

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