asean 2030: challenges of building a mature political and security community

8/14/2019 ASEAN 2030: Challenges of Building a Mature Political and Security Community

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JMGA [or`alk Yjphr Shrahs

JSHJL 79396 Cejb bhlkhs odGuabm alk j Njturh Yobatacjb jlmShcuraty Connulaty

Jnatjv Jcejryj

Lo. ==:Octoghr 79:3

Jsajl Mhvhbopnhlt Gjl` Alstatuth


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]eh [oràlk Yjphr shrahs as j coltalujtaol od teh dornhrby ljnhm Mascussaol Yjphr shrahs0teh lunghralk od teh pjphrs coltaluhm wateout althrruptaol or cejlkh. JMGAs woràlkpjphrs rhdbhct alatajb amhjs ol j topac jlm jrh posthm olbalh dor mascussaol. JMGA hlcourjkhsrhjmhrs to post tehar connhlts ol teh njal pjkh dor hjce woràlk pjphr (kavhl al tehcatjtaol ghbow). Sonh woràlk pjphrs njy mhvhbop alto otehr dorns od pugbacjtaol.

Sukkhsthm catjtaol6

Jcejryj, J. 79:3. JSHJL 79396 Cejbbhlkhs od Guabmalk j Njturh Yobatacjb jlm ShcuratyConnulaty. JMGA [oràlk Yjphr ==:. ]o`yo6 Jsajl Mhvhbopnhlt Gjl` Alstatuth. Jvjabjgbh6ettp6//www.jmga.ork/woràlk-pjphr/79:3/:9/75/81:;.jshjl.7939.pobatacjb.shcuraty.connulaty/

Ybhjsh coltjct teh juteors dor aldornjtaol jgout teas pjphr.

Hnjab6 jjcejryjIjnhracjl.hmu

Jnatjv Jcejryj as XLHSCO Cejar al ]rjlsljtaoljb Cejbbhlkhs jlm Kovhrljlch jlmCejar od teh JSHJL Stumahs Chlthr Jnhracjl Xlavhrsaty, [jsealktol MC.

]eh vahws hxprhsshm al teas pjphr jrh teh vahws od teh juteor jlm mo lot lhchssjrabyrhdbhct teh vahws or pobacahs od JMGA, teh JMG, ats Gojrm od Marhctors, or teh kovhrlnhltstehy rhprhshlt. JMGA mohs lot kujrjlthh teh jccurjcy od teh mjtj alcbumhm al teas pjphrjlm jcchpts lo rhspolsagabaty dor jly colshquhlchs od tehar ush. ]hrnaloboky ushm njylot lhchssjraby gh colsasthlt wate JMG oddacajb thrns.

Jsajl Mhvhbopnhlt Gjl` Alstatuth@jsunakjshà Guabmalk 5D

3-7-8 @jsunakjshà, Ceayomj-ù]o`yo :99-4995, Fjpjl

]hb6 +5:-3-3813-8899Djx6 +5:-3-3813-88;:XWB6 www.jmga.orkH-njab6 aldoIjmga.ork

79:3 Jsajl Mhvhbopnhlt Gjl` Alstatuth


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JMGA [or`alk Yjphr ==: Jcejryj

Jgstrjc t

]eas pjphr hxjnalhs teh pobatacjb jlm shcuraty cejbbhlkhs jlm prosphcts od teh Jssocajtaolod Soutehjst Jsajl Ljtaols (JSHJL) al teh conalk two mhcjmhs. ]o sanpbady wejt as jeukhby conpbhx jlm wamh-rjlkalk sht od assuhs, A mavamh teh shcuraty cejbbhlkhs djcalk

JSHJL alto sax grojm cjthkorahs. ]ehsh alcbumh (:) teh seadtalk gjbjlch od powhr al teh JsajYjcadac rhkaol, trakkhrhm njalby, ad lot hxcbusavhby, gy teh mrjnjtac rash od teh YhopbhsWhpugbac od Cealj (YWC)0 (7) teh phrsasthlch od altrj-JSHJL thrratorajb coldbacts0 (3) tehthrratorajb masputh al teh Soute Cealj Shj, weace as j cratacjb djctor al YWCJSHJL rhbjtaols0(=) teh prokrjns od nabatjry nomhrlazjtaols ulmhrtj`hl gy JSHJL stjths jlm teh rhsubtalkprosphcts dor jl altrj-JSHJL jrns rjch0 (8) ulchrtjalty jlm stradh cjushm gy mhnjlms dormonhstac pobatacjb cejlkh0 (4) jlm teh mjlkhrs poshm gy trjlsljtaoljb (lol-trjmataoljb)shcuraty terhjts. A jrkuh tejt JSHJL djchs njfor eurmbhs al rhjbazalk j njturh pobatacjb-shcuraty connulaty, wehrh altrj-JSHJL thlsaols jrh sakladacjltby njljkhm jlm rhmuchm toteh poalt wehrh wjr ghconhs ulteal`jgbh jlm j mhhp jlm khlualh shlsh od rhkaoljbconnulaty hnhrkhs. [eabh rhchlt sthps ulmhrtj`hl gy JSHJL jrh gobm jlm djr-rhjcealk,rhjbazalk tehn woubm mhphlm ol shvhrjb djctors, hsphcajbby teh njalthljlch od ats ulaty jlm

coehsaol al teh djch od j rasalk YWC, teh jgabaty to rhsobvh rhkaoljb maspuths, conpbyalk wateteh provasaols jlm alstrunhlts od teh JSHJL Cejrthr jlm teh Yobatacjb-Shcuraty ConnulatyGbuhpralt, jlm hlsuralk jl jkhlmj-shttalk jlm njljkhrajb robh al teh wamhr Hjst Jsajl jlmJsaj-Yjcadac nubtabjthrjbasn.

FHB Cbjssadacjtaol6D89, D8:, D83, D88


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Colthlts

:. Altromuctaol ................................................................................................................ 3

7. Yowhr Seadt ................................................................................................................ 3

3. Altrj-JSHJL Maspuths jlm ]hlsaols ......................................................................... 4

=. ]eh Soute Cealj Shj Masputh ................................................................................... ;

8. Jl Jrns Wjch? ......................................................................................................... 1

4. Althrljb Coldbacts jlm Yobatacjb Cejlkh ..................................................................... ::

;. ]rjlsljtaoljb Cejbbhlkhs ........................................................................................ :3

5. Colcbusaol6 JSHJLs Durtehr Hvobutaol .................................................................. :5

Whdhrhlchs ......................................................................................................................... 77

Jpphlmax :6 Sunnjry od teh JSHJL Shcuraty Gbuhpralt ..................................................... 73


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:. AL]WOMXC]AOL

J murjgbh rhkaoljb kroupalk al teh mhvhbopalk worbm, teh Jssocajtaol od SoutehjstJsajl Ljtaols (JSHJL) ejs ghhl j dorch dor stjgabaty jlm coophrjtaol al SoutehjstJsaj jlm Jsaj dor teh pjst dour jlm ejbd mhcjmhs. Salch :11;, spurrhm gy wamhsprhjmcratacasn od ats phrdornjlch al rhspolmalk to teh hcolonac jlm pobatacjb cejbbhlkhsprhshlthm gy teh Jsajl daljlcajb crasas, JSHJL ejs tj`hl j lunghr od `hy alatajtavhs torhvatjbazh jlm strhlktehl atshbd. At ejs cbjradahm ats vasaol jlm colsobamjthm ats jkhlmj gybjulcealk terhh connulatahs6 hcolonac, pobatacjb-shcuraty, jlm socao-cubturjb. At ejsjmopthm j Cejrthr, tehrhgy kavalk atshbd j bhkjb phrsoljbaty jlm pjvalk teh wjy dorkrhjthr alstatutaoljbazjtaol jlm colsobamjtaol od ats jkrhhnhlts jlm nhcejlasns odcoophrjtaol. Js pjrt od tehsh hddorts, JSHJL ejs alstatuthm lhw alstrunhlts od coldbactnjljkhnhlt jlm cobbhctavh jctaol. Norhovhr, wehrhjs JSHJL al teh darst two mhcjmhsod ats hxasthlch docushm ol j banathm rjlkh od assuhs, ats njlmjth ejs hxpjlmhm rjpambyjlm njy whbb coltaluh to mo so dor teh lhxt two mhcjmhs. At dulctaols low covhr j

rjlkh od lhw trjlsljtaoljb or lol-trjmataoljb shcuraty assuhs, suce js cbanjth cejlkh,masjsthr njljkhnhlt, coulthr-thrrorasn, pjlmhnacs, doom shcuraty, mruk trjddac`alk,phopbh snukkbalk, jlm njly otehr assuh jrhjs. JSHJL ejs jbso hxthlmhm atsalstatutaoljb nomhb wateal teh wamhr Jsaj Yjcadac jlm Hjst Jsaj rhkaols gy jlceoralklhw rhkaoljb alstatutaols ba`h teh JSHJL Whkaoljb Dorun (JWD), JSHJL Ybus ]erhh(JY]), jlm teh Hjst Jsajl Sunnat (HJS). Js JSHJLs Shcrhtjry-Khlhrjb, SuralYatsuwjl, ejs rhchltby ogshrvhm, JSHJL ejs hnhrkhm js teh dubcrun od khopobatacjbstjgabaty al Jsaj.:

[ate jl jngataous vasaol, hxpjlmhm jkhlmj, jlm hlejlchm alstrunhlts od coophrjtaol,JSHJL njy shhn whbb prhpjrhm to coph wate teh cejbbhlkhs at djchs al teh two conalkmhcjmhs. Gut cjl wh tj`h ats bolkhvaty jlm hddhctavhlhss dor krjlthm?

7

]eas pjphr hxjnalhs teas quhstaol wate pjrtacubjr rhsphct to teh pobatacjb-shcuratycejbbhlkhs djcalk JSHJL. Dor jljbytacjb colvhlahlch, A mavamh teh pralcapjb shcuratycejbbhlkhs djcalk JSHJL alto sax grojm cjthkorahs, jbteouke tehsh jrh lot nutujbbyhxcbusavh jlm lot prhshlthm ehrh al jly pjrtacubjr ormhr od anportjlch. ]ehshcjthkorahs jrh6 powhr seadt, altrj-JSHJL maspuths jlm thlsaols, teh Soute Cealj Shjmasputh, prosphcts dor jl altrj-JSHJL jrns rjch, monhstac alstjgabaty, jlmtrjlsljtaoljb (lol-trjmataoljb) shcuraty terhjts. Ghbow, A provamh j grahd mhscraptaol odhjce.

7. YO[HW SEAD]

]eh darst as teh olkoalk powhr seadt al teh rhkaol, trakkhrhm njalby gy teh rash od tehYhopbhs Whpugbac od Cealj (YWC) jlm, to j bhsshr hxthlt, Almaj. [ehl JSHJL wjsdornhm, teh kbogjb powhr structurh wjs gapobjr. ]omjy, teh Xlathm Stjths (XS), teh

:Sural Yatsuwjl, ]eh JSHJL Ehjrt od Jsaj, Fj`jrtj Yost,:8 Fulh 79::, p.;.

7]eh ophlalk two pjrjkrjpes jlm teh colcbusaol od teas hssjy mrjws dron Jnatjv Jcejryj, [abb JSHJL

]eravh al 7939?, Fj`jrtj Yost,:= Dhgrujry 79::, weace atshbd wjs mrjwl dron teh juteors prhshltjtaolto teh wor`seop ol JSHJL 79396 Krowalk ]okhtehr dor Sejrhm Yrosphraty, co-orkjlazhm gy teh

JSHJL Stumahs Chlthr jt Jnhracjl Xlavhrsaty jlm teh Jsajl Mhvhbopnhlt Gjl Alstatuth, [jsealktolMC, ; Dhgrujry 79::. Jvjabjgbh jt6ettp6//www.tehfj`jrtjpost.con/lhws/79::/97/:=/wabb-jshjl-teravh-7939.etnb.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/02/14/will-asean-thrive-2030.htmlhttp://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/02/14/will-asean-thrive-2030.htmlhttp://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/02/14/will-asean-thrive-2030.htmlhttp://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/02/14/will-asean-thrive-2030.html


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=

YWC, Almaj, Fjpjl, jlm j rhsurkhlt Wussaj colstatuth teh gjsas od j nubtapobjr rhkaoljbalthrljtaoljb systhn.

[ejt jrh teh anpbacjtaols dor Jsajs shcuraty jlm JSHJLs duturh? [h cjllot ejvh jmhdalath jlswhr to teas quhstaol, jlm teas ulchrtjalty atshbd as pjrt od teh shcuraty

cejbbhlkh djcalk JSHJL tomjy, ghcjush JSHJL lhvhr ejm to mhjb wate khlualhstrjthkac nubtapobjraty ghdorh. Almhhm, tehrh ejm lhvhr ghhl j nubtapobjr structurh odalmakhlous powhrs al Jsajs pjst. ]eh bjst tanh teh rhkaol grouket tokhtehr j nubtatumhod krhjt powhrs, dron teh :;te chltury ultab teh hjrby 79te chltury, tehy whrh njalbyoutsamh powhrs (wate teh banathm hxchptaol od Fjpjl jdthr teh Nhafa rhdorns). ]eas wjswehl teh Xlathm @alkmon, Drjlch, teh Lhtehrbjlms, jlm Spjal, jbolk wate tehrhbjtavhby bjthconhr teh XS, whrh scrjngbalk dor thrratory, prodat, jlm aldbuhlch. ]eas bhmto teh anpovhrasenhlt jlm sugfukjtaol od Jsaj dor ovhr terhh eulmrhm yhjrs, alcbumalkteh njrkaljbazjtaol od ats two njfor cbjssacjb cavabazjtaolsteh YWC jlm Almaj.

Al Jsajs khopobatacjb pjst, teh phraoms od jschlmjlcy od Fjpjl jlm teh YWC lhvhrrhjbby coalcamhm. ]eh post-Nhafa rhdorn Fjpjlhsh jschlmjlcy coalcamhm wate teh

prhcapatous mhcbalh od Zalk Cealj. ]eh sjnh cjllot gh sjam od teh satujtaol tomjy,ghcjush weabh Fjpjl ejs ghhl ovhrtj`hl gy teh YWC js teh worbms shcolm bjrkhstjlm Jsajs bhjmalk hcolony (al purcejsalk powhr pjraty PYYY^ thrns), at woubm ghnasbhjmalk to conpjrh Fjpjl tomjy wate Zalk Cealj al teh bjth :1te chltury. Jlm weabhteh YWC jlm Almaj ejvh sejrhm tanh js krhjt powhrs (teh Nokeub jlm teh hjrby Zalkphraoms mam coalcamh, gut teh Kuptj hnparh dron 379 JM to 899 JM jlm teh ]jlkhnparh dron 4:5 JM to 19; JM mam lot), tehy ejvh lot sejrhm teh sjnh khopobatacjbspjch. Al teh prh-kbogjbazjtaol hrj, teh noultjals mavamalk Almaj jlm teh YWC naketejvh mhthrrhm Cealhsh rubhrs ad tehy hvhr teouket od hxpjlmalk tehar thrratory ghyolm]aght norh tejl Cealhsh pabkrans shh`alk wasmon al Almaj.

]omjy teh satujtaol as vhry maddhrhlt. Jsaj currhltby ejs terhh almakhlous krhjt powhrs,two od tehn rasalk sanubtjlhousby, wate Fjpjl stabb j sakladacjlt powhr lotwatestjlmalkats rhchlt trougbhs. ]ehy jrh foalhm gy two outsamh powhrsteh XS jlm Wussaj.Kbogjbazjtaol, nomhrl nabatjry thceloboky, jlm teh trjlsport rhvobutaol, ejvh groukettehsh powhrs to j stjth od nuce cboshr jlm norh coltaluous althrjctaol tejl ejm hvhrghhl teh cjsh al teh pjst. Jnolk teh gak davh, lolh cjl aklorh jly od teh otehrs, narhmjs tehy jrh al j mhhp stjth od strjthkac althrmhphlmhlch.

Sonh [hsthrl tehorasts od althrljtaoljb rhbjtaols shh Jsajs hnhrkalk nubtapobjraty js jmjlkhrous mhvhbopnhlt, hsphcajbby conpjrhm to Cobm [jr gapobjraty. Olh strjlm odtehory, lhorhjbasn, jrkuhs tejt nubtapobjr systhns thlm to gh norh prolh to wjr tejlgapobjr systhns. Ejvalk olby two njal jctors eobmalk hjce otehr al cehc` jbbows dorsanpbhr jlm norh prhmactjgbh pjtthrls od jbbajlchs jlm althrjctaols, wehrhjs jnubtapobjr hlvarolnhlt woubm gh norh conpbhx jlm cejotac. ]ehy coltrjst Hurophs

:1te jlm hjrby 79te chltury nubtapobjratyj eakeby ulstjgbh phraom cubnaljtalk al twoworbm wjrswate teh bolk phjch od teh post-[orbm [jr AA gapobjr hrj. Dron teasphrsphctavh, Jsajs hnhrkalk nubtapobjraty naket nhjl Hurophs pjst coubm gh Jsajsduturh. Otehrs, hsphcajbby baghrjb jlm colstructavast tehorasts, mo lot shh jly lhchssjrycorrhbjtaol ghtwhhl gapobjraty jlm coldbact, jlm sonh hvhl jrkuh tejt nubtapobjralthrjctaols cjl almuch stjgabaty gy crhjtalk norh opportulatahs dor jbaklnhlts jlmalthrjctaols. Jdthr jbb, j rasalk powhr wate jkkrhssavh althltaols woubm ejvh to colthlmwate norh tejl olh pothltajbby coulthrvjabalk powhr.

]eas mhgjth rhnjals ulshttbhm to mjth, gut ejs anpbacjtaols dor JSHJLs bolk-thrnduturh. JSHJL wjs to sonh hxthlt teh promuct od j gapobjr hrj, wate teh XS jlm tehdornhr Sovaht Xlaol sejpalk teh rhkaoljb gjbjlch od powhr terouke tehar dorwjrm

nabatjry prhshlch jlm jbaklnhlts (teh XS wate Fjpjl, teh Whpugbac od @orhj, ]ejabjlm,


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jlm teh Yeabappalhs0 ]japha,Cealj wate Justrjbaj jlm Lhw Vhjbjlm0 teh Sovaht Xlaolwate Connulast YWC ghdorh teh Salo-Sovaht spbat, Taht Ljn, jlm Almaj). Norhovhr,JSHJL hnhrkhm jt j tanh wehl teh terhh almakhlous Jsajl powhrsFjpjl, teh YWC,jlm Almajwhrh jbb ulwabbalk or uljgbh to jssunh shraous rhkaoljb bhjmhrseap. Almajejm bost aldbuhlch al Soutehjst Jsaj dobbowalk ats :147 gormhr coldbact wate teh YWC,jlm wjs otehrwash mastrjcthm gy monhstac progbhns jlm ats ravjbry wate Yjàstjl. NjosYWC wjs narhm al ats Cubturjb Whvobutaol, jlm wjs vahwhm wate althlsh suspacaol gy atslhakegors ghcjush od ats support (ultab teh bjth :1;9s) dor Connulast alsurkhlcahs alSoutehjst Jsaj. Fjpjl, jbteouke at ejm rh-hnhrkhm gy teh :149s dron ats [orbm [jr AAmhdhjt wate jl alcrhjsalkby powhrdub hcolony, wjs lot shhl js jl jcchptjgbh rhkaoljbbhjmhr muh to phrsastalk nhnorahs ovhr ats wjrtanh robh, js whbb js dhjrs ovhr atshcolonac monaljlch. Whjbazalk teas, Fjpjlhsh kovhrlnhlts rhdrjalhm dron shhàlk ortjàlk ol jly njfor almhphlmhlt rhkaoljb pobatacjb robh.

]eas satujtaol kjvh JSHJL j mougbh ophlalk. Darstby, teh Cobm [jr stjbhnjth ghtwhhlteh XS jlm teh Sovaht Xlaol kjvh JSHJL j njrkal od drhhmon to pursuh ats owlhcolonac jlm shcuraty kojbs (weace alcbumhm j rhbjtavhby lol-jbaklhm posturh terouke

ats Volh od Yhjch, Drhhmon, jlm Lhutrjbaty drjnhwor`) wateout ghalk nobhsthm gysuphrpowhr althrvhltaol. Shcolmby, teh prhmacjnhlts od teh YWC, Almaj, jlm Fjpjlkjvh JSHJL teh spjch to mhvhbop ats owl grjlm od rhkaoljbasn, teh JSHJL [jy,wateout ghalk ovhrsejmowhm gy teh trjmataoljb Jsajl krhjt powhrs.

[eabh teh rash od teh YWC jlm Almaj jlm teh krjmujb hrosaol od jlta-Fjpjlhshshltanhlt al Soutehjst Jsaj (jbteouke lot lhchssjraby al teh YWC jlm teh Whpugbac od@orhj) mo lot jutonjtacjbby trjlsbjth alto j cjpjcaty dor tehn, hatehr almavamujbby orcobbhctavhby, to bhjm rhkaoljb alstatutaols,3

Jlotehr duturh dor JSHJLjl hqujbby ulpronasalk olhwoubm gh j conalk tokhtehrod teh krhjt powhrs alto sonh sort od j colchrt, jàl to teh Hurophjl Colchrt odYowhrs hstjgbasehm jdthr teh Ljpobholac wjrs al teh :1te chltury. Suce j colchrt, jsugsht od weace coubm gh j Salo-XS colmonalaun, woubm hltjab tehar foalt njljkhnhltod rhkaoljb pobatacjb jlm shcuraty jddjars, jsamh dron hcolonac monaljlch. Js j whbb-`lowl sjyalk al Soutehjst Jsaj kohs, wehl teh hbhpejlts daket, teh krjss suddhrs0

wehl teh hbhpejlts nj`h bovh, teh krjss jbso suddhrs. Jl Jsajl colchrt od powhrsalvobvalk teh YWC, teh XS, Fjpjl, jlm Almaj woubm njrkaljbazh teh whj`, js tehHurophjl Colchrt mam al teh :1te chltury. ]ejt woubm nj`h JSHJL chltrjbaty jlmbhjmhrseap j tealk od teh pjst.

at mohs kavh tehn j nuce krhjthr jgabaty tosejph teh rhkaoljb ormhr. At ljrrows JSHJLs njrkal od jutolony jlm cejbbhlkhs atscjpjcaty to bhjm Jsajl rhkaoljb alstatutaols. Sonh Soutehjst Jsajls wolmhr wehtehrteh rh-hnhrkhlch od teh YWC jlm Almaj wabb rhturl Soutehjst Jsaj to ats eastoracjb

prhmacjnhlt js jl jpphlmjkh od teh two eastoracjbby anportjlt cavabazjtaols jlmnjrkaljbazh at pobatacjbby jlm hcolonacjbby. Norhovhr, wate davh krhjt powhrs hlkjkhm alconphtataol jlm gjbjlcalk, JSHJL naket dalm atshbd djcalk maddacubt mabhnnjs al mhcamalkjlm coormaljtalk eow to hlkjkh tehn almavamujbby jlm cobbhctavhby al maddhrhlt assuhjrhjs.

]ehsh mhvhbopnhlts lhhm lot moon JSHJL, gut tehy wabb shvhrhby thst ats pobatacjbnjturaty jlm dorhsaket. Copalk wate teh kbogjb jlm rhkaoljb powhr seadt woubm rhquarh jnhjsurh od coehsaol jlm purposh al mhjbalk wate teh krhjt powhrs od teh rhkaol tejt,js A sejbb mascuss al teh colcbusaol, woubm mhthrnalh wehtehr JSHJL 7939 rhtjals atschltrjbaty or sal`s alto arrhbhvjlch.

3

Jnatjv Jcejryj, Cjl Jsaj Bhjm? Yowhr jngataols jlm kbogjb kovhrljlch al teh twhlty-darst chltury,Althrljtaoljb Jddjars, Tob. 5;, Lo.= (79::), pp. 58:41.


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3. AL]WJ-JSHJL MASYX]HS JLM ]HLSAOLS

Almhhm, rhsastalk njrkaljbazjtaol al j nubtapobjr hlvarolnhlt woubm gh anpossagbh dorJSHJL ulbhss at eobms tokhtehr js j kroup. ]eas bhjms to teh shcolm njfor cejbbhlkh

djcalk teh orkjlazjtaol6 altrj-JSHJL thlsaols jlm maspuths.JSHJLs salkbh krhjthst succhss js j rhkaoljb gomy, j chltrjb gjsas od ats cbjan to gh jljschlt shcuraty connulaty, =

Jlotehr succhss wjs JSHJLs robh al teh Cjngomajl coldbact. Jbteouke lot jl altrj-JSHJL coldbact (lhatehr Taht Ljn lot Cjngomaj wjs j nhnghr od JSHJL tehl), tehcoldbact too` up j colsamhrjgbh jnoult od tanh jlm hddort gy JSHJL js at souket jlhkotajthm shttbhnhlt weabh orkjlazalk althrljtaoljb support jkjalst teh Tahtljnhshoccupjtaol od Cjngomaj. ]eas wjs j robh tejt wjs jbb teh norh anportjlt muralk tehhjrby stjkhs od teh coldbact, wehl teh [hsthrl pbjyhrs, suce js Justrjbaj jlm Drjlch,whrh jgshlt dron teh schlh, jbteouke teas woubm lot prhvhlt tehn dron cbjanalknjxanun crhmat dor teh hvhltujb shttbhnhlt od teh coldbact terouke teh nasbhjmalkbyljnhm Yjras Yhjch Jkrhhnhlt. ]eh rhjb kroulmwor` dor teh shttbhnhlt ejm ghhl bjamal Gokor jlm Fj`jrtj, rjtehr tejl al Cjlghrrj jlm Yjras.

wjs ats jgabaty to mabuth jlm njljkh, ad lot hltarhbyrhsobvh, altrj-nurjb maspuths. ]eas succhss wjs hvamhlt dron teh vhry garte od JSHJL,weace colsunnjthm teh pobatacjb shttbhnhlt, nhmajthm gy ]ejabjlm, od teh AlmolhsajNjbjysaj/Salkjporh coldbact (@oldroltjsa) trakkhrhm gy Yrhsamhlt Su`jrlos rhdusjb tojcchpt teh bhkatanjcy od teh Gratase-crhjthm Njbjysajl Dhmhrjtaol. JSHJL al ats hjrbyyhjrs wjs shvhrhby cejbbhlkhm gy teh YeabappalhNjbjysaj masputh ovhr Sjgje, gut tehcoldbact pjrjmoxacjbby bhm teh doulmalk nhnghrs od JSHJL to rhjbazh teh anportjlch odrhkaoljb coophrjtaol jlm teh pjcadac shttbhnhlt od maspuths. Ovhr teh yhjrs, JSHJLnhnghrs ejvh lot jbbowhm tehar gabjthrjb thrratorajb maspuths jlm pobatacjb thlsaols

alcbumalk teosh ovhr njratanh goulmjrahs al teh Kubd od ]ejabjlm, teh Soute Cealj Shj,teh Subu Shjs, jlm otehr jrhjsto crappbh teh orkjlazjtaol. ]eh SalkjporhNjbjysajmasputh ovhr teh Yhmrj Grjlcj asbjlms al teh Soute Cealj Shj jlm teh NjbjysajAlmolhsaj masputh ovhr teh Sapjmjl jlm Bakatjl Asbjlms al teh Subjwhsa Shj ejvh ghhlshttbhm terouke rhsort to jrgatrjtaol gy teh Althrljtaoljb Court od Fustach (ACF). ]eouketeh ACF as jl outsamh gomy, tehar vhry wabbalklhss to rhsort to fumacajb shttbhnhlt rjtehrtejl to vaobhlch as j thstanoly to teh sparat od jcconnomjtaol jnolk JSHJLnhnghrs.

Gut althr-stjth maspuths jlm thlsaols wateal JSHJL ejvh lot masjpphjrhm. Lhatehr ejswjr ghconh ulteal`jgbhteh ejbbnjr` od j njturh shcuraty connulaty. 8

=Jnatjv Jcejryj, Colstructalk j Shcuraty Connulaty al Soutehjst Jsaj6 JSHJL jlm teh Yrogbhn od

Whkaoljb Ormhr, 7

lm

hmataol (Oxdorm jlm Bolmol6 Woutbhmkh, 7991). ]eh mastalctaol ghtwhhl ljschlt jlmnjturhrhdhrs to maddhrhlt stjkhs al teh hvobutaol od shcuraty connulatahs, jccormalk to shcuratyconnulaty tehory. Sanpby put, al j ljschltpejsh, j shcuraty connulaty naket stabb rhtjal sonh shlsh odravjbry jlm conphtataol jnolk ats nhnghrs, jbteouke teas woubm gh nuthm gy colvhrkalk terhjtphrchptaols, hxphcthm trjmh ghlhdats, jl hvobvalk connol amhltaty, jlm orkjlazjtaoljb hnubjtaol(bhjrlalk dron teh hxphrahlch od otehr nubtabjthrjb orkjlazjtaols). Jt teh njturhstjkh, j shcuratyconnulaty as njr`hm gy krhjthr alstatutaoljbazjtaol, sonh mhkrhh od suprjljtaoljbasn, j eake mhkrhh odtrust, jlm bow or lo progjgabaty od nabatjry coldbacts. Nhnghrs od j njturh shcuraty connulaty ogshrvhshbd-rhstrjalt jlm hxphct lo nabatjry terhjts dron hjce otehr. Ghyolm teas, tehar rhbjtaolseap naket durtehrhvobvh alto tejt od j nutujb jam socahty, provamalk dor cobbhctavh jlm coophrjtavh hddorts to ehbp hjceotehr jlm oddhr foalt sobutaols to connol progbhns, jlm daljbby alto j post-sovhrhakl systhn, weacenaket alcbumh connol ljtaoljb alstatutaols js whbb js suprjljtaoljb jlm trjlsljtaoljb alstatutaols, jlmsonh dorn od cobbhctavh shcuraty.

Hnjluhb Jmbhr jlm Nacejhb Gjrlhtt, J Drjnhwor` dor teh Stumy od

Shcuraty Connulatahs, al Hnjluhb Jmbhr jlm Nacejhb Gjrlhtt (hms.), Shcuraty Connulatahs(Cjngramkh6Cjngramkh Xlavhrsaty Yrhss, :115), p. 39.

JSHJLs

8Jcejryj, Colstructalk j Shcuraty Connulaty al Soutehjst Jsaj.


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;

Shcrhtjry-Khlhrjb ejs wjrlhm tejt ulrhsobvhm jlm ovhrbjppalk njratanh jlmthrratorajb cbjans rhnjal JSHJLs gakkhst cejbbhlkh.4

]eh lhws as lot jbb gjm, eowhvhr. SalkjporhNjbjysaj rhbjtaols ejvh sthjmabyanprovhm salch teh hlm od Njejtear jlm Bhh @ujl Qhw prhnahrseaps, rhsphctavhby0watlhss teh rhchlt rhsobutaol od tehar 79-yhjr obm rjabwjy bjlm masputh. Almolhsaj jlmSalkjporh jbso hlfoy j ghtthr pobatacjb rhbjtaolseap tejl al teh mjys wehl AlmolhsajlYrhsamhlt Ejgagah maspjrjkhm teh caty-stjth js j battbh rhm mot. Gut j vjrahty od gabjthrjb

assuhs ghtwhhl Salkjporh jlm ats lhakegors rhnjal to gh shttbhm. [ate Njbjysaj, tehyalcbumh, jnolk otehrs, Salkjporhs jcchss to Njbjysajl wjthr jlm, norh travajbby,jbbhkhm vaobjtaols od Njbjysajl jarspjch gy Salkjporhs jar dorch pbjlhs. Norhovhr, tehgabjthrjb thlsaols jrh lot stractby althr-kovhrlnhltjb, gut jbso althr-socahtjb. Mhspath tehdjct tejt Salkjporh ejs alcrhjsalkby ghhl turlalk to JSHJL, at as stabb rhkjrmhm gy sonhod ats lhakegors js sonhwejt shbd-chlthrhm. ]eh eastoracjb phrchptaol al Njbjysaj jlmAlmolhsaj od Salkjporh js j whjbtey Cealhsh asbjlm al j shj od Njbjys as j bjthltsourch od thlsaol, jlm naket rhsurdjch al j duturh hcolonac crasas al weace Salkjporh asphrchavhm to gh ulwabbalk to provamh ulcolmataoljb jam to ats lhakegors (js Njbjysajjbbhkhm muralk teh :11; hcolonac crasas). [eabh Salkjporh jlm Almolhsaj ejvhrhjcehm jkrhhnhlt ol tehar whsthrl njratanh goulmjry, jlm tjb`s jrh whbb ulmhr wjyto shttbh teh hjsthrl goulmjry, tehrh ejvh ghhl thlsaols ovhr hxtrjmataol. (Almolhsajlsdhhb tejt ats corrupt gusalhssnhl dalm at hjsy to dbhh to or vaj teh caty stjth rjtehr tejldjch fustach jt eonh.) ]eh pjcadyalk hddhct od teh ACF-njlmjthm shttbhnhlt od tehSapjmjlBakatjl asbjlm masputh ejs ghhl njrrhm gy j lhw masputh ghtwhhl Salkjporhjlm Njbjysaj ovhr teh Njbjysajl cbjan to teh lhjrgy Jngjbjt. Jlm teh Yhmrj Grjlcjmasputh naket stabb surdjch js j sourch od SalkjporhNjbjysaj dractaol, ghcjush teh ACFshttbhnhlt rhcoklazhm Salkjporhs sovhrhaklty ovhr Yhmrj Grjlcj atshbd, gut jwjrmhmteh jmfjchlt Nammbh Woc`s to Njbjysaj.

Gut teh bjlm goulmjry masputhghtwhhl ]ejabjlm jlm Cjngomaj as jbso anportjlt, js at ejs jbrhjmy promuchm nabatjrycbjsehs jlm shraousby cejbbhlkhs JSHJLs cbjan to gh j shcuraty connulaty, a.h., jkroupalk od stjths tejt ejvh mhvhbophm bolk-thrn hxphctjtaols od phjchdub cejlkhjlm rubhm out teh ush od dorch al shttbalk tehar maspuths. ]eh ]ejabjlmCjngomaj coldbactas j rhnalmhr tejt monhstac pobatacs cjl ghconh j sourch od altrj-JSHJL mascorm (jswate ]ejabjlms Qhbbow SeartWhm Seart ravjbry, weace bhm to teh ejrmhlalk od teh ]ejaposataol ol Yrhje Tahejr), jlm tejt lhw JSHJL nhnghrs njy lot jbwjys jmehrh toteh hstjgbasehm lorns od JSHJL (h.k., Cjngomajs sehbthralk od dukatavh ]eja YranhNalasthr ]ej`sal Sealwjtrj, weace whlt jkjalst teh sparat od lol-althrdhrhlch).

;

=. ]EH SOX]E CEALJ SHJ MASYX]H

Lolhtehbhss, nost od tehsh altrj-JSHJL thlsaols jrh ba`hby to gh bow-althlsaty jlmseoubm lot cjush shvhrh masruptaol od hcolonac mhvhbopnhlt or rhkaoljb stjgabaty. Dorteh lhxt 79 yhjrs, teh Soute Cealj Shj coldbact wabb progjgby rhnjal teh worst-cjshterhjt to phjch jlm shcuraty al teh JSHJL rhkaol, jlm possagby teh nost shraouscejbbhlkh to JSHJLs rhkaoljb coldbact njljkhnhlt robh.

Al 799:, j Wjlm Corporjtaol jsshssnhlt (So`obs`y, Wjgjsj, jlm Lhu 799:6 :8:4)amhltadahm two typhs od colvhltaoljb nabatjry terhjts dron teh YWC to Soutehjst Jsajtejt woubm rhquarh j X.S. mapbonjtac or nabatjry rhspolsh. Xlmhr teh darst, Pj^ljkkrhssavh jlm ehkhnolac PYWC^ coubm terhjthl drhhmon od ljvakjtaol al teh Soute

4Sural Yatsuwjl, ]eh JSHJL Ehjrt od Jsaj, Fj`jrtj Yost,:8 Fulh 79::, p.;.

;

At as ushdub to rhnalm ourshbvhs tejt teh ]ejabjlmCjngomaj masputh ovhr Yrhje Tahejr wjs lot shttbhmgy teh ACF rubalk al :147.


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5

Cealj Shj, phrejps to cohrch teh Xlathm Stjths, Fjpjl, or teh JSHJL stjths altojcchptalk YWC pobatacjb mhnjlms. ]eh shcolm woubm alvobvh6

jl jtthnpt gy Pteh YWC^ to dorcagby hstjgbase jlm njaltjal peysacjb coltrob ovhrjbb or nost od teh Sprjtby Asbjlms, pronptalk rhquhsts dor nabatjry jssastjlch

dron olh or norh od teh JSHJL coultrahs. Suce j PYWC^ ophrjtaol coubmdhjturh teh terhjt or ush od dorch jkjalst teh thrratory od jl JSHJL stjth, hatehrto conphb jcchptjlch od PYWC^ mhnjlms or to mhdhjt opposalk nabatjry dorchs0jbthrljtavhby, Pteh YWC^ coubm hxpjlm ats sjbjna tjctacs to jsshrt coltrob ovhrnorh thrratory.5

Gut tejt stumy mam loth colstrjalts ol YWC powhr profhctaol cjpjgabaty js whbb js tehpobatacjb jlm hcolonac costs od coldbact js djctors mascourjkalk teh YWC dron bjulcealkj njfor jttjc` al teh Soute Cealj Shj jrhj. Alsthjm, at posathm tejt teh JSHJLcoultrahs jrh ba`hby to djch j coltalujtaol od Pteh YWCs^ crhhpalk arrhmhltasn.

1Gut thlyhjrs bjthr, wate ats krowalk ljvjb cjpjgabatahs (alcbumalk jrhj mhlajb cjpjgabaty) jlmalcrhjsalk jsshrtavhlhss, dhjrs jrh krowalk al JSHJL jgout YWC althltaols al teh

Soute Cealj Shj. ]eosh JSHJL nhnghrs colchrlhm jgout teh YWCs nabatjry guabm-up jrh ba`hby to gh durtehr jbjrnhm gy j stjthnhlt gy teh Connjlmhr od teh XS YjcadacConnjlm, Jmnarjb Woghrt [abbjrm, sjyalk tejt6 Pteh YWC^'s rjpam jlm conprhehlsavhtrjlsdornjtaol od ats jrnhm dorchscejbbhlkh our drhhmon odjctaol al teh rhkaol, jlmpothltajbby aldralkh ol tehar (XS jbbahs) drhhmon od jctaol.:9

P]eh YWC^s connhrch jlm ehlch prosphraty mhphlms vhry nuce ol jcchss toshj bjlhs terouke teh Almajl Ochjl, teh Njbjccj Strjats jlm otehr jrhjs ovhrweace at ejs battbh coltrob, jlm weace jrh monaljthm gy XS ljvjb powhr. Almaj tooejs sakladacjlt ljvjb powhr al teh Almajl Ochjl So ad puse conhs to seovh,jl jkkrhssavh Cealhsh mhlajb od Soute Cealj Shj trjmh rouths to worbm powhrs,jlm teh masruptaol od njratanh trjddac teh rhsubtalk coldbact naket cjush, woubm ghannhlshby shbd-alfuraous to Pteh YWC^. At woubm provo`h coulthrnhjsurhs tejtwabb put al phrab Pteh YWC^s owl jcchss to teh cratacjb shj bjlhs al teh AlmajlOchjl jlm hbshwehrh PYWC^ bhjmhrs jrh lot ogbavaous to teas djct od badh. ]ehtrute as tejt tehy njy lot ejvh teh optaol od pursualk jl jkkrhssavh posturh.]eh costs wabb sanpby gh too eake.

Jl outraket YWC NolrohMoctralh ovhr teh Soute Cealj Shj as ulba`hby, eowhvhr, pjrtby ghcjush teh YWC ejs tocolsamhr teh shvhrh hcolonac colshquhlchs od j nabatjry tj`hovhr od teh Soute CealjShj to mhly at to teh XS jlm otehrs. Ovhr 49% od teh YWCs kross monhstac promuct(KMY) low mhphlms ol dorhakl trjmh, weabh anporthm oab jccoults dor 89% od ats oablhhms. Ehlch6

::

]eas mohs lot, eowhvhr, wjrrjlt conpbjchlcy ol teh pjrt od JSHJL. ]eh quhstaoldjcalk JSHJL low as wehtehr at cjl rhpbacjth ats hjrbahr rhcorm al coldbact njljkhnhlt

al teh Cjngomaj coldbact od teh :159s al teh cjsh od teh bjrkhr Soute Cealj Shjmasputh. Ba`h teh Cjngomaj coldbact od teh :159s, teh Soute Cealj Shj maspuths jrh lotjl altrj-JSHJL masputh. Gut teh sanabjraty ghtwhhl teh two coldbacts hlms tehrh. Xlba`hSovaht-mhphlmhlt Taht Ljn al teh :159s, teh YWC, teh njal lol-JSHJL pjrty to tehmasputh, as jl hnhrkalk suphrpowhr. [eabh teh Cjngomaj coldbact wjs njalby jpobatacjb/amhobokacjb njtthr, teh Soute Cealj Shj coldbact rhvobvhs jroulm assuhs od

5Wacejrm So`obs`y, Jlkhb Wjgjsj, C. Wacejrm Lhu, ]eh Wobh od Soutehjst Jsaj al X.S. Strjthky ]owjrm

Cealj(Sjltj Nolacj CJ, ]eh Wjlm Corporjtaol, 799:), pp.:8:4.1Agam., p.75.

:9ettp6//jrnhm-shrvachs.shljth.kov/stjthnlt/79:9/93%79Njrce/[abbjrm%7993-74-:9.pmd.

::Jnatjv Jcejryj, Ghyolm teh Cealhsh Nolroh Moctralh, ]eh Strjats ]anhs, 79 Fulh 79::.
http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2010/03%20March/Willard%2003-26-10.pdfhttp://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2010/03%20March/Willard%2003-26-10.pdfhttp://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2010/03%20March/Willard%2003-26-10.pdf


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1

thrratorajb cbjans jlm sovhrhaklty, ulmhrpallhm gy teh burh od (js yht ulprovhl) ljturjbrhsourchs, hsphcajbby oab jlm kjs, tejt teh YWC so cratacjbby lhhms. Jlotehr `hymaddhrhlch as tejt lot jbb JSHJL nhnghrs jrh cbjanjlts al teh masputh, j djct teh YWCushs to alsast ol gabjthrjb jpprojcehs to coldbact njljkhnhlt, rjtehr tejl hlkjkalkJSHJL js j kroupalk. ]eh Cjngomaj coldbact wjs j shraous jlm cbhjr vaobjtaol od tehlol-althrvhltaol pralcapbh, ehlch JSHJL doulm at rhbjtavhby hjsy to nogabazhalthrljtaoljb colmhnljtaol od Taht Ljn, jamhm gy teh cbanjth od teh Cobm [jr. ]ehSoute Cealj Shj assuh as khttalk eotthr jt j tanh od teh YWCs krowalk althrljtaoljbcbout lotwatestjlmalk teh djct tejt teh hxthlt od teh YWCs cbjans (ats motthm balhs ovhrjbnost teh hltarh Soute Cealj Shj) as raketby rhkjrmhm js mugaous gy jbnost hvhryolhhbsh al teh rhkaol. Al teh :159s, JSHJL ejm battbh maddacubty al shcuralk hvhr alcrhjsalknjforatahs al teh Xlathm Ljtaols (XL) Khlhrjb Jsshngby dor ats rhsobutaol colmhnlalkteh Tahtljnhsh occupjtaol od Cjngomaj. [oubm teh Jdracjl or Bjtal Jnhracjlcoultrahs weo rhchavh gabbaols od mobbjrs al YWC hcolonac jam low voth jkjalst tehYWC jt teh XL to colmhnl ats nabatjry jctaol jkjalst Taht Ljn or Yeabappalhs al tehSoute Cealj Shj, lo njtthr eow ulprovo`hm?

]eh Soute Cealj Shj coldbact eobms anportjlt bhssols dor JSHJLs duturh jpprojce tocoldbact njljkhnhlt. [ate teh rhsobutaol od teh Cjngomaj coldbact al :11:, at wjswamhby shhl js teh lhxt Cjngomaj dor JSHJL. Gut at jbnost masjpphjrhm dron tehrjmjr hxchpt dor j grahd hscjbjtaol ovhr teh Nasceahd Whhd Alcamhlt al :118, shvhlyhjrs ghdorh teh Mhcbjrjtaol ol Comh od Colmuct al Soute Cealj Shj tejt JSHJL jlmteh YWC saklhm al Lovhnghr 7997. ]eas wjs pjrtby muh to teh Almolhsajl-bhm trjc` twowor`seops ol Njljkalk Yothltajb Coldbacts al teh Soute Cealj Shj, weace rjlterouke teh :119s. Gut teh rhjb rhjsol naket ejvh to mo wate teh djct tejt teas wjs jtanh wehl teh YWC lhhmhm tanh dor docusalk ol ats hcolonac mhvhbopnhlt jlm copalkwate teh ]japha,Cealj coldbact tejt ejm rhjcehm j goabalk poalt ovhr teh tehl]japha,Cealj rubalk pjrtys quhst dor almhphlmhlt stjtheoom. Low, wate teh ]japha,Cealjcoldbact sonhwejt nuthm jlm teh YWC ejvalk jbrhjmy sugstjltajbby alcrhjshm atshcolonac jlm nabatjry powhr, teh Soute Cealj Shj assuh ejs rhsurdjchm wate rhlhwhmvakor. ]eas as jl ulcondortjgbh rhnalmhr tejt JSHJLs trjmataoljb prjctach od swhhpalkcoldbacts ulmhr teh cjrpht mohs lot jbwjys wor`. ]eh YWC al pjrtacubjr as too gak jpbjyhr to gh swhpt ulmhr teh JSHJL cjrpht. ]ejt jpprojce wor`s js bolk js tehpobatacjb rhbjtaols jnolk teh pjrtahs rhnjal koom, js wjs teh cjsh al teh ehymjys odteh YWCs cejrn oddhlsavh al Soutehjst Jsaj al teh 7999s. Gut at as lo sugstatuth dornorh bolk-thrn jlm mhdalatavh nhcejlasns dor coldbact rhsobutaol.

8. JL JWNS WJCH?

Sonh jljbysts wjrl tejt tehrh as j krowalk jrns rjch al Hjst Jsaj, alcbumalkSoutehjst Jsaj. Jccormalk to hstanjths gy teh Stoc`eobn Althrljtaoljb YhjchWhshjrce Alstatuth (SAYWA), mhdhlsh sphlmalk gy teh JSHJL coultrahs (hxcbumalkNyjlnjr dor weace rhbajgbh mjtj as lot jvjabjgbh) ejs roukeby mougbhm al teh pjstmhcjmh (799979:9) (shh ]jgbh :). :7

:7]ehsh hstanjths jrh al al colstjlt (7991) XS mobbjr thrns. Al currhlt (79:9) mobbjr thrns, SAYWA mjtjputs teh mhdhlsh sphlmalk od JSHJL coultrahs jt XS$75.; gabbaol al 79:9. [orbm Jrnjnhlts jlmMasjrnjnhlt6 SAYWA Qhjrgoo`, 79::(Oxdorm Xlavhrsaty Yrhss dor Stoc`eobn Althrljtaoljb YhjchWhshjrce Alstatuth, 79::). Jvjabjgbh jt6

Norhovhr, teh JSHJL rhkaol ejs shhl jmrjnjtac alcrhjsh al jrns anports. Ghtwhhl 7998 jlm 7991, Njbjysajs jrns anports

ettp6//www.sapra.ork/yhjrgoo`/79::/9=/9=J.Al Njy 79::,Almolhsajl Mhdhlsh Nalasthr Yurlono put teh JSHJL coultrahs mhdhlsh sphlmalk jt XS$78 gabbaol.Almolhsaj, Njbjysaj jkrhh to pronoth JSHJL mhdhlch almustry cobbjgorjtaol 79 Njy 79::. Jvjabjgbh

jt6ettp6//www.alvhstors.con/LhwsJlmJljbysas/Lhwsdhhm/Jrtacbh/:3:48:;=1/79::9879977=/Almolhsaj-Njbjysaj-jkrhh-to-pronoth-JSHJL-mhdhlch-almustry-cobbjgorjtaol.jspx.
http://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2011/04/04Ahttp://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2011/04/04Ahttp://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Newsfeed/Article/131651749/201105200224/Indonesia-Malaysia-agree-to-promote-ASEAN-defence-industry-collaboration.aspxhttp://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Newsfeed/Article/131651749/201105200224/Indonesia-Malaysia-agree-to-promote-ASEAN-defence-industry-collaboration.aspxhttp://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Newsfeed/Article/131651749/201105200224/Indonesia-Malaysia-agree-to-promote-ASEAN-defence-industry-collaboration.aspxhttp://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Newsfeed/Article/131651749/201105200224/Indonesia-Malaysia-agree-to-promote-ASEAN-defence-industry-collaboration.aspxhttp://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2011/04/04A


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:9

funphm ;77%, Salkjporhs alcrhjshm gy :=4%, jlm Almolhsajs rosh gy 5=%.Salkjporh rjl`s jnolk teh top thl jrns anporthrs al teh worbm. ]eas pronpthm Sahnol[hzhnjl od SAYWA to wjrl tejt ]eh currhlt wjvh od Soute Hjst Jsajl jcquasataolscoubm mhstjgabash teh rhkaol, fhopjrmasalk mhcjmhs od phjch.:3

]jgbh :6 Mhdhlsh Sphlmalk gy JSHJL Nhnghr Stjths al Colstjlt(7991) XS$ nabb aol

Hcolony/Qhjr :119 7999 79:9Grulha Mjrussjbjn 345 39= 37;Cjngomaj ;; :7: :1: (7991)Almolhsaj :,571 7,978 (dor 799:) 4,991Bjo YMW l.j. 7=.4 :5.= (7991)Njbjysaj :,=18 7,979 3,781NyjlnjrYeabappalhs :,949 :,7:8 :,=54Salkjporh 3,935 8,588 ;,48:

]ejabjlm 3,39= 7,435 =,334Taht Ljn :,848 l.j. 7,=:9

l.j. > lot jvjabjgbh.Loth6 Dor Nyjlnjr, colstjlt mobbjr dakurhs jrh lot jvjabjgbh. Nhjsurhm al thrns od ats bocjb currhlcy (@yjt)currhlt dakurhs, Nyjlnjrs mhdhlsh sphlmalk wjs 8.= gabbol @yjt dor :119 jlm 43.=8 gabbaol @yjt dor 7999.SAYWA mohs lot provamh mjtj dor 79:9.Sourch6 SYAWA Qhjrgoo`, vjraous yhjrs. Jvjabjgbh jt6ettp6//nabhxmjtj.sapra.ork/.

Nost profhctaols sukkhst tejt mhdhlsh sphlmalk al Hjst Jsaj, alcbumalk Soutehjst Jsaj,wabb coltaluh to krow rjpamby alto teh lhxt two mhcjmhs. Al Fulh 79::, Salkjporhsmhdhlsh nalasthr profhcthm j 49%;9% alcrhjsh al mhdhlsh sphlmalk al SoutehjstJsaj jlm Hjst Jsaj conpjrhm wate teh bjst mhcjmh.:=

:3

Salkjporh darst jnolk JSHJL to nj`h bast od top :9 gakkhst jrns anporthrs Jvjabjgbh jt6

Gut nuce od teh alcrhjshs almhdhlsh sphlmalk jlm jrns purcejshs wabb gh mravhl gy teh gakkhr pbjyhrsteh YWC,

Almaj, jlm Fjpjlrjtehr tejl Soutehjst Jsaj. Eastoracjbby, mhdhlsh sphlmalk jlm jrnsanports al Soutehjst Jsaj ejvh ghhl mhthrnalhm gy j vjrahty od djctors, od weace altrj-JSHJL maspuths jlm thlsaols (h.k., SalkjporhNjbjysaj, jlm ]ejabjlmNyjlnjr) asolby olh pjrt. ]eh otehr djctors alcbumh monhstac alsurkhlcahs, colchrl dor teh shcuratyjlm sjdhty od shj bjlhs dron masruptaol gy parjcy jlm thrrorasn (weace jrh connolshcuraty colchrls od JSHJL nhnghrs), jlm, od coursh, hxtrj-rhkaoljb shcuratycejbbhlkhs suce js ulchrtjalty ovhr teh YWCs strjthkac althltaols or dhjr odrhtrhlcenhlt od teh XS nabatjry prhshlch al teh rhkaol. ]eh bjst djctor as anportjlt,salch Soutehjst Jsaj as pjrt od teh wamhr Hjst Jsajl strjthkac tehjtrh, jlm ehlch asjddhcthm gy mhvhbopnhlts al teh rhbjtaolseap jnolk teh njfor pbjyhrs. ]eas shrvhs jsjl anphtus dor mhdhlsh sphlmalk jlm jrns purcejshs, gut at lhhm lot mhstjgabazh altrj-JSHJL rhbjtaols phr sh. ]eas mastalctaol ghtwhhl teh altrj-JSHJL jlm hxtrj-JSHJL

colthxts as anportjlt to ghjr al nalm wehl colsamhralk teh hcolonac jlm strjthkacanpbacjtaols od teh phrchavhm jrns rjch al Hjst jlm Soutehjst Jsaj. ]eh bjrkhstJSHJL nhnghr al thrns od popubjtaol jlm KMY, Almolhsaj, as olby teh saxte eakehstmhdhlsh sphlmhr al JSHJL, weabh teh snjbbhst JSHJL nhnghr, Salkjporh, as teheakehst sphlmhr wate teh nost cjpjgbh jrnhm dorchs. ]eas cjushs j stjth od gjbjlchmstrjthkac maspjraty tejt ejs shrvhm altrj-JSHJL stjgabaty whbb al teh pjst jlm seoubm

ettp6//fjcog41.wormprhss.con/79:9/93/39/salkjporh-darst-jnolk-jshjl-to-nj`h-bast-od-top-:9-gakkhst-jrns-anporthrs-jlm-tehl-tehrhs-teh-arol-monh/.

:=ettp6//www.cejllhblhwsjsaj.con/storahs/salkjporhbocjblhws/vahw/::35:;:/:/.etnb.
http://milexdata.sipri.org/http://jacob69.wordpress.com/2010/03/30/singapore-first-among-asean-to-make-list-of-top-10-biggest-arms-importers-and-then-theres-the-iron-dome/http://jacob69.wordpress.com/2010/03/30/singapore-first-among-asean-to-make-list-of-top-10-biggest-arms-importers-and-then-theres-the-iron-dome/http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1138171/1/.htmlhttp://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1138171/1/.htmlhttp://jacob69.wordpress.com/2010/03/30/singapore-first-among-asean-to-make-list-of-top-10-biggest-arms-importers-and-then-theres-the-iron-dome/http://jacob69.wordpress.com/2010/03/30/singapore-first-among-asean-to-make-list-of-top-10-biggest-arms-importers-and-then-theres-the-iron-dome/http://milexdata.sipri.org/


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::

coltaluh to shrvh at whbb alto teh duturh.:8

4. AL]HWLJB COLDBAC]S JLM YOBA]ACJB CEJLKH

Daljbby, mhdhlsh sphlmalk al JSHJL ejseastoracjbby ghhl eakeby shlsatavh to teh hcolonac cycbh (ulba`h Soute Jsaj, wehrhmhdhlsh sphlmalk as mravhl njalby gy strjthkac colsamhrjtaol wehtehr teh hcolonahsphrdorn whbb or lot). ]eas as j eophdub sakl dor JSHJL tejt almacjths tejt ats nhnghrswabb lot put kuls ghdorh gutthr.

Soutehjst Jsaj wjs teh schlh od sonh od teh worst monhstac vaobhlch od teh bjth 79techltury. ]eh @enhr Woukh rhkanh al Cjngomaj `abbhm jgout :.; nabbaol (j qujrthr odteh Cjngomajl popubjtaol) muralk ats grutjb rubh ghtwhhl :1;8 jlm :1;1. Jlta-Connulast raots al Almolhsaj tejt jcconpjlahm teh trjlsataol dron Yrhsamhlt Su`jrloto Suejrto cbjanhm jgout =99,999 bavhs. Htelac jlm shpjrjtast novhnhlts al Hjst]anor jlm Jche cbjanhm 799,999 jlm norh tejl 7,999 bavhs, rhsphctavhby.:4[eabh tehrhjrh lo prophr cobbjthm dakurhs dor htelac shpjrjtasn al Nyjlnjrusujbby bow-scjbh,

rjlmon cjsujbtahs, jlm coldbacts, 499,999 althrljbby-maspbjchm phrsols dron tehshcoldbacts ejvh ghhl rhcormhm. :;Jccormalk to olh hstanjth, Nyjlnjr, weace wjshngroabhm al 4 maddhrhlt altrjstjth coldbacts, as teh worbms nost coldbact-prolh coultrymuralk teh :1=47993 phraom, ejvalk hxphrahlchm 737 coldbact-yhjrs.:5

]eh njal sourchs od althrljb coldbacts al JSHJL alcbumh (:) teh bjc` od dat ghtwhhl tehthrratorajb goulmjrahs od teh nomhrl ljtaol-stjths jlm teh htelac conposataol od teharpopubjtaols (teh nhnghrs od teh sjnh htelac kroup strjmmbalk ljtaoljb goulmjrahs jlmalmavamujb ljtaol-stjths coltjalalk njly maddhrhlt htelac kroups)0 jlm (7) strukkbh dorrhkanh survavjb jlm mhnjlms dor pobatacjb cejlkh jkjalst juteoratjrajl rhkanhs. [eabholh naket colsamhr thrrorasn js j monhstac shcuraty terhjt, ghcjush at as sonhtanhsroothm al olkoalk monhstac coldbacts, A woubm alcbumh at al teh cjthkory od trjlsljtaoljbterhjts, kavhl tejt teh njfor thrrorast orkjlazjtaols thlm to mrjw support dron jlm

Otehr coldbact-prolh coultrahs muralk teas phraom, al thrns od ejvalk hxphrahlchm teh krhjthst lunghrod coldbact-yhjrs, jrh Yeabappalhs (54 coldbact-yhjrs), Almolhsaj (=9 coldbact-yhjrs),Cjngomaj (34 coldbact-yhjrs), Taht Ljn (34 coldbact-yhjrs), jlm ]ejabjlm (38 coldbact-yhjrs). Jbteouke Soutehjst Jsaj ejs watlhsshm j mhcbalh al gjttbh mhjtes al `hhpalkwate teh ovhrjbb trhlm jroulm teh worbm, jlm ejs ghhl drhh od njfor coldbact salch tehdaketalk al Cjngomaj (:1;1:11:) hlmhm, althrljb coldbacts al soutehrl ]ejabjlm,soutehrl Yeabappalhs, jlm Nyjlnjr rhnjal j shraous cejbbhlkh to eunjl shcuraty.Nabatjry rubh, weace jccoulthm dor sonh od teh worst eunjl rakets vaobjtaols al teh

rhkaol, coltaluhs al Nyjlnjr, grahdby rhcurrhm al ]ejabjlm al 7994, jlm cjllot ghhltarhby rubhm out al teh Yeabappalhs.

:8WAs mhdhlsh sphlmalk rjl`s bow al SH Jsaj, Jvjabjgbh jt6ettp6//www.tehfj`jrtjpost.con/lhws/79:9/:7/9:/ra%H7%59%11s-mhdhlsh-sphlmalk-rjl`s-bow-sh-jsaj.etnb.]eh perjsh gjbjlchm strjthkac maspjraty as gorrowhm dron Mol Hnnhrsols thrn gjbjlchm maspjraty al

JSHJL, weace anpbahs tejt teh bjrkhst nhnghr stjths al thrns od sazh jlm popubjtaol jrh lot tehstrolkhst hcolonac jlm nabatjry powhrs, weabh teh whj`hr nhnghrs al thrns od sazh jlm popubjtaol jrhwhjbteahr jlm strolkhr nabatjry powhrs.

:4Alkram [hsshb jlm Khorkaj [aneodhr, hms., Taobhlch al Almolhsaj(Ejngurk6 Jghrj-Thrbjk, 799:).

:;XS Mhpjrtnhlt od Stjth, Coultry Whports ol Eunjl Wakets Yrjctachs, Gurnj, 3: Njrce 7993.Jvjabjgbh jt6ettp6//www.stjth.kov/k/mrb/rbs/errpt/7997/:573;.etn.

:5At as possagbh dor j coultry to gh alvobvhm al two or norh stjth-gjshm jrnhm coldbacts al j kavhl yhjr jlm

teus jccunubjth norh tejl olh coldbact-yhjr dor hjce cjbhlmjr yhjr. Nyjlnjr, dor hxjnpbh, wjshngroabhm al sax maddhrhlt altrjstjth coldbacts.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/12/01/ri%E2%80%99s-defense-spending-ranks-low-se-asia.htmlhttp://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/12/01/ri%E2%80%99s-defense-spending-ranks-low-se-asia.htmlhttp://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2002/18237.htmhttp://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2002/18237.htmhttp://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/12/01/ri%E2%80%99s-defense-spending-ranks-low-se-asia.htmlhttp://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/12/01/ri%E2%80%99s-defense-spending-ranks-low-se-asia.html


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:7

ophrjth jcross ljtaoljb goulmjrahs, jlm rhtjal sakladacjlt hxthrljb or hxtrj-rhkaoljbbal`s (h.k., Jb-Zjhmj jlm teh Fhnnje Asbjnaje lhtwor` al Soutehjst Jsaj).

Monhstac coldbacts lot olby cejbbhlkh teh althrljb stjgabaty od JSHJL stjths, gut jbsorhkaoljb stjgabaty js j weobh. Njly monhstac coldbacts thlm to spabb ovhr ljtaoljb

goulmjrahs, hsphcajbby wehl nabatjlts or rhdukhhs dbhh teh coldbact zolh jlm shh`jsybun al lhakegoralk stjths (js ejpphlhm al teh pjst wehl nhnghrs od tehConnulast Yjrty od Njbjyj novhm jcross teh gormhr alto ]ejabjlm, jlm njy ghejpphlalk low wate teh rhporthm novhnhlt od Nusban rjmacjbs dron ]ejabjlms souteconalk ovhr to Njbjysaj). Jbteouke at shhns to ejpphl rjrhby tehsh mjys, sucespabbovhrs coubm ghconh j sourch od dractaol ghtwhhl JSHJL nhnghr stjths.Norhovhr, ulhvhl mhnocrjtazjtaol al JSHJL njy shh sonh lhwby mhnocrjtacrhkanhs (suce js Almolhsaj), uljgbh to rhsast monhstac mhnjlms dor synpjtey jlmsupport dor opposataol dakurhs al lhakegoralk juteoratjrajl stjth, weace naket ghcolstruhm js ulwjrrjlthm althrdhrhlch gy teh bjtthr.

]eh pjst mhcjmh ejs shhl teh hlm od shvhrjb bolk-stjlmalk shpjrjtast novhnhlts al

JSHJL, pjrtacubjrby Jche jlm Hjst ]anor, jbteouke teh hlmalk od tehsh coldbacts mamconh jt j sakladacjlt eunjl jlm mhvhbopnhltjb cost. Gut teh shpjrjtast novhnhlts alteh soutehrl Yeabappalhs jlm soutehrl ]ejabjlm ejvh lo annhmajth hlm al saket, jlmnjy whbb coltaluh alto teh lhxt two mhcjmhs. (At rhnjals to gh shhl wehtehr teh lhw]eja kovhrlnhlts hbhctaol cjnpjakl pbhmkh to kavh jutolony to teh soutehrlprovalchs wabb nj`h jly maddhrhlch, js teas wabb gh rhsasthm gy teh jrnhm dorchs, jlmjutolony ejs lot hlmhm teh soutehrl Yeabappalh coldbact.) Nyjlnjr too as ba`hby to shhphraomac dbjrh-ups od ats nyrajm htelac rhghbbaols, js ejpphlhm al 7991 jlm 79:9.

]jgbh 76 Drhhmon jlm Mhnocrjcy al JSHJL

Hcolony / Qhjr :1;7 :155:151 79:9

Drhhmon StjtusDrhhmon

Stjtus

Hbhctorjb

Mhnocrjcy

Drhhmon

Stjtus

Hbhctorjb

MhnocrjcyGrulha Mjrussjbjn Lot Drhh Lot Drhh Lo Lot Drhh LoGurnj Lot Drhh Lot Drhh Lo Lot Drhh LoCjngomaj Lot Drhh Lot Drhh Lo Lot Drhh LoHjst ]anor(lot jl JSHJLnhnghr)

Yjrtby Drhh Qhs

Almolhsaj Yjrtby Drhh Yjrtby Drhh Lo Drhh QhsBjo YMW Yjrtby Drhh Lot Drhh Lo Lot Drhh LoNjbjysaj Drhh Yjrtby Drhh Lo Yjrtby Drhh LoYeabappalhs Yjrtby Drhh Drhh Qhs Yjrtby Drhh LoSalkjporh Yjrtby Drhh Yjrtby Drhh Lo Yjrtby Drhh Lo

]ejabjlm Lot Drhh Drhh Qhs Yjrtby Drhh LoTaht Ljn

Lot DrhhYjrtby Drhh

Lot Drhh LoLot Drhh Lo

Sourch6 Drhhmon Eoush.

JSHJL rhnjals jl omm naxturh od juteoratjrajl, shna-juteoratjrajl, jlm mhnocrjtacrhkanhs. Mhnocrjtazjtaol al JSHJL ejs provhl to gh jl ulhvhl jlm lolbalhjrpehlonhlol. Salch :154, mhnocrjtac trjlsataols ejvh tehorhtacjbby occurrhm al dourJSHJL nhnghrsYeabappalhs, ]ejabjlm, Cjngomaj, jlm Almolhsaj. Eowhvhr,mhnocrjtac rubh al ]ejabjlm wjs grahdby gut sakladacjltby rhvhrshm al 7994, jlm atrhnjals drjkabh tehrh js whbb js al Yeabappalhs jlm Cjngomaj. Lotwatestjlmalk atsrhchlt hbhctaols, Nyjlnjrs trjlsataol to j stjgbh pobaty wate j nomacun od mhnocrjcy

rhnjals djr dron chrtjal. Jccormalk to Drhhmon Eoush mjtj, olby olh out od thl


15/26


:3

JSHJL nhnghrs as rhkjrmhm js drhh, davh jrh colsamhrhm pjrtby drhh, jlm teh rhstlot drhh. Xsalk Drhhmon Eoushs stract crathraj, tejt coult lot fust hbhctaols gut jbsocavab baghrtahs, olby two out od thl jrh hbhctorjb mhnocrjcahs. (Shh ]jgbh 7.) Durtehrmhnocrjtazjtaol al JSHJL as chrtjalby possagbh al teh lhxt two mhcjmhs. Njbjysaj jlmSalkjporh, trjmataoljbby rhkjrmhm js j naxturh od mhnocrjcy jlm juteoratjrajlasn (sodtjuteoratjrajlasn) jrh jbrhjmy djcalk alcrhjsalk mhnjlms dor krhjthr pobatacjbbaghrjbazjtaol jlm ophllhss. Ad teh bjst hbhctaols jrh jly almacjtaol, tehrh as j krowalkshlsh od pobatacjb ophllhss al Salkjporh, olch rhkjrmhm gy [hsthrl ogshrvhrs js tehpjrjmaknjtac cjsh od jl juteoratjrajl-mhvhbopnhltjbast (jbghat j succhssdub olh) stjth,weosh dornhr pranh nalasthr, Bhh @ujl Qhw, olch jssocajthm mhnocrjcy watealmascapbalh jlm ehlch j gjrrahr to mhvhbopnhlt. ]eas vahw ejs ghhl bjam to rhst.

]eh prochss od mhnocrjtazjtaol as sonhtanhs shhl js j sourch od alstjgabaty jlm hvhlwjr. Gut tehrh as scjlt hvamhlch al Jsaj tejt lhwby mhnocrjtac kovhrlnhlts ejvh kolhto wjr wate tehar lhakegors (jl hxchptaol coubm gh Almaj jlm Yj`astjl al teh bjth:119s). Alsthjm, lhwby mhnocrjtac rhkanhssuce js ]ejabjlm wate CejtacejaCeoolejvjl al teh bjth :159s, teh Whpugbac od @orhj ulmhr @an Mjh Fulk al teh

:119s, jlm Almolhsaj post-Suejrtoejvh pursuhm khlhrjbby nomhrjth jlm phjchdubrhbjtaols wate tehar lhakegors. Norhovhr, al tehsh coultrahs, js whbb js al ]japha,Cealjjdthr Ceajlk @ja-seh`, wh ejvh shhl tejt mhnocrjtazjtaol ejs sejrpby rhmuchmmonhstac vaobhlch jlm mhjtes conpjrhm to teh phraom ulmhr juteoratjrajl rubh.:1

;. ]WJLSLJ]AOLJB CEJBBHLKHS

Jscoubm gh shhl dron teh eunjl shcuraty mjtj prhshlthm hjrbahr, juteoratjrajl rhkanhs alAlmolhsaj, Cjngomaj, jlm Nyjlnjr phrphtrjthm sugstjltajb monhstac vaobhlch. Ehlch,olh naket js` wehtehr at as teh phrsasthlch od stjr` juteoratjrajl rubh tejt nakethlkhlmhr krhjthr monhstac vaobhlch rjtehr tejl trjlsataols to mhnocrjcy. Mactjtorseapscjl lhvhr shcurh bolk-thrn popubjr jcquahschlch, jlm jrh odthl thnpthm to nhhtmhnjlms dor pobatacjb cejlkh wate vaobhlt rhprhssaol, tehrhgy cjusalk teh vhryalstjgabaty tehy shh` to jvoam.

]rjlsljtaoljb terhjtshlvarolnhltjb mhkrjmjtaol, pjlmhnacs, thrrorasn, njratanhparjcy, daljlcajb vobjtabaty,79

Cbanjth cejlkh njy turl out to gh hsphcajbby anportjlt js j shcuraty cejbbhlkh toJSHJL dor teh conalk two mhcjmhs. At as wamhby rhkjrmhm js j terhjt to kbogjb jlmrhkaoljb shcuraty. J stumy gy teh Chlthr dor Ljvjb Jljbysas al teh XS jrkuhs6

mruk trjddac`alk, phopbh snukkbalk, nolhy bjulmhralk, jlmotehr dorns od trjlsljtaoljb cranh mo lot rhsphct ljtaoljb goulmjrahs. Sonh jrravh jtvhry seort lotach, ba`h teh shvhrh jcuth rhsparjtory sylmronh (SJWS) pjlmhnac al 7993or teh thrrorast gongalks al Gjba al 7997. Otehrs, ba`h cbanjth cejlkh, ejvh j bolkkhstjtaol phraom, jlm jrh teus ba`hby to gh aklorhm gy pobacynj`hrs. Chrtjal jsphcts odkbogjbazjtaol, suce js teh trjlsport rhvobutaol jlm tourasn, jkkrjvjth jlm jct js jtrjlsnassaol ghbt dor njly suce cejbbhlkhs. Yhrejps ol teh posatavh samh, ghcjushtrjlsljtaoljb terhjts mhdy ulabjthrjb or ljtaoljb rhnhmahs, rhkaoljb jlm althrljtaoljbcoophrjtaol ghconhs j lhchssaty, rjtehr tejl j njtthr od ceoach.

:1Dor j mhtjabhm hnparacjb jljbysas, shh Jnatjv Jcejryj, Mhnocrjcy or Mhjte? [abb MhnocrjtasjtaolGralk Krhjthr Whkaoljb Alstjgabaty to Hjst Jsaj?,Yjcadac Whvahw,Tob. 73, Lo. 3 (79:9), pp. 33885.

79A mo lot mascuss daljlcajb vobjtabaty al teas pjphr, js at as covhrhm al otehr pjphrs al teas JMGA profhct. Dorj mhtjabhm mascussaol od teh shcuraty anpbacjtaols od teh :11; daljlcajb crasas, shh Jnatjv Jcejryj,Whjbasn, Alstatutaoljbasn jlm teh Jsajl Hcolonac Crasas, Colthnporjry Soutehjst Jsaj,Tob. 7:, Lo.:

(Jprab :111), pp. :71. Bjc` od spjch jbso prhcbumhs j mascussaol od njratanh parjcy, mruks, phopbh-snukkbalk, jlm otehr dorns od trjlsljtaoljb cranh js tehy jddhct JSHJL.


16/26


:=

Xlba`h nost colvhltaoljb shcuraty terhjts tejt alvobvh j salkbh hltaty jctalk alsphcadac wjys jlm poalts al tanh, cbanjth cejlkh ejs teh pothltajb to rhsubt alnubtapbh cerolac colmataols, occurralk kbogjbby wateal teh sjnh tanh drjnh.Hcolonac jlm hlvarolnhltjb colmataols al jbrhjmy drjkabh jrhjs wabb durtehrhromh js doom promuctaol mhcbalhs, mashjshs alcrhjsh, cbhjl wjthr ghconhsalcrhjsalkby scjrch, jlm bjrkh popubjtaols novh al shjrce od rhsourchs.[hj`hlhm jlm djabalk kovhrlnhlts, wate jl jbrhjmy teal njrkal dor survavjb,dosthr teh colmataols dor althrljb coldbacts, hxtrhnasn, jlm novhnhlt towjrmalcrhjshm juteoratjrajlasn jlm rjmacjb amhobokahs.

7:

At as maddacubt to colsamhr teh anpjct od cbanjth cejlkh wateal j stractby JSHJL colthxt,kavhl teh proxanaty od JSHJL to Soute Jsaj jlm teh YWC, two od teh rhkaols nostvublhrjgbh to teh shcuraty anpbacjtaols od cbanjth cejlkh. ]eus, al j rhport to teh XSMhdhlsh Mhpjrtnhlt, Yhthr Scewjrtz jlm Mouk Wjlmjbb (Scewjrtz jlm Wjlmjbb 799363) jrkuh tejt

77gy 7979, phrsasthlt coldbact al Soute Hjst Jsaj0 Gurnj, PBjo YMW^, PTahtLjn^, Almaj, Pteh YWC^ coubm occur js j rhsubt od cbanjth cejlkh. 73]eh Chlthr dorLjvjb Jljbysas stumy sukkhsts tejt muh to cbanjth cejlkh teh YWC coubm suddhr dron

mhcrhjshm rhbajgabaty od teh nolsool rjals, bolkhr, cobmhr walthrs jlm eotthr sunnhrscjushm gy cbanjth cejlkh (mhcrhjshm hvjporjtavh coobalk ghcjush od rhmuchmprhcapatjtaol), coubm bhjm to wamhsprhjm djnalh, cejos jlm althrljb strukkbhs, jlmcoldbact wate Wussaj jlm whsthrl lhakegors dor hlhrky rhsourchs. Dor Gjlkbjmhse, tehcolshquhlchs coubm gh j rash al shj bhvhbs, storn surkhs, jlm cojstjb hrosaol, jbb odweace woubm nj`h nuce od Gjlkbjmhse lhjrby ulalejgatjgbh, js teh rasalk shj bhvhbnaket coltjnaljth drhse wjthr suppbahs albjlm, alcbumalk mralàlk wjthr. J rhbjthmcolshquhlch woubm gh bjrkh-scjbh hnakrjtaol, weace woubm trakkhr thlsaol watelhakegors, alcbumalk Almaj, teh YWC, jlm Soutehjst Jsajl coultrahs. ]eh rhport jbsowjrls tejt, Almaj jlm Almolhsaj coubm hxphrahlch vaobhlt storns, mhjtes dron wjr jlmdjnalh, raots jlm althrljb coldbacts. 7= Durtehrnorh, salch shvhrjb od Jsajs njfor

ravhrsteh Almus, Kjlkhs, Nhòlk, Qjlktzh, jlm Qhbboworakaljth al teh Eanjbjyjs,Pa^d teh njssavh slow/ach sehht al teh Eanjbjyjsteh tearm-bjrkhst ach sehht al tehworbm, jdthr teosh al Jltjrctac jlm Krhhlbjlmcoltaluhs to nhbt, at wabb mrjnjtacjbbyrhmuch teh wjthr suppby od nuce od Jsaj.78

Cbanjth cejlkh ejs teh pothltajb to sakladacjltby jkkrjvjth teh mhkrjmjtaol od JSHJLshlvarolnhlt jbrhjmy cjushm gy mhdorhstjtaol. Al teh phraom od :159 to 799;, JSHJLdorhsts ejvh mhcrhjshm gy j totjb od 888,85; squjrh àbonhthrs, jl jrhj roukeby tehsazh od ]ejabjlm, or gy jl jllujb jvhrjkh rjth od 79,8;5 squjrh àbonhthrs, jl jrhjjbnost 71 tanhs teh sazh od Salkjporh. (Shh ]jgbh 3.) Jbteouke teh mjtj as ulchrtjal,cbanjth cejlkh ejs ghhl bal`hm to alcrhjsalk shvhraty od storns jlm dbooms. ]eh 799=

Almajl Ochjl ]suljna seowhm tejt teh hrosaol od njlkrovhs coubm cjush althlsadahm

JSHJL ejs jbrhjmy shhl eow ejzh drondorhst darhs al Almolhsaj cjl cjush mascolthltnhlt jlm thlsaol (gote jt popubjr jlmoddacajb bhvhbs) al Almolhsajs rhbjtaols wate Salkjporh jlm Njbjysaj.

7:Ljtaoljb Shcuraty jlm teh ]erhjt od Cbanjth Cejlkh, ]eh CLJ Corporjtaol, Jbhxjlmraj, TJ, 799;.Jvjabjgbh jt6ettp6//shcuratyjlmcbanjth.clj.ork/,p.4. Jcchsshm 78 Jprab 799;.

77Yhthr Scewjrtz jlm Mouk Wjlmjbb, Jl Jgrupt Cbanjth Cejlkh Schljrao jlm Ats Anpbacjtaols dor XlathmStjths Ljtaoljb Shcuraty, Octoghr 7993. Jvjabjgbh jt6ettp6//www.krast.ork/pmd/JgruptCbanjthCejlkh7993.pmd,p.3.

73Agam., p.:;.

7=Whpromuchm dron Njr` ]owlshlm jlm Yjub Ejrras, Low teh Yhltjkol ]hbbs Guse6 Cbanjth Cejlkh [abbMhstroy Xs, ]eh Ogshrvhr, 77 Dhgrujry 799=. Jvjabjgbh jt6ettp6//jrceavhs.zalhsthr.con/:3:53/::;387.etnb,jcchsshm 78 Jprab 799;.

78]eh CLJ Corporjtaol 799;6 :3:8.
http://securityandclimate.cna.org/http://securityandclimate.cna.org/http://www.grist.org/pdf/AbruptClimateChange2003.pdfhttp://archives.zinester.com/13183/117352.htmlhttp://archives.zinester.com/13183/117352.htmlhttp://www.grist.org/pdf/AbruptClimateChange2003.pdfhttp://securityandclimate.cna.org/


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mjnjkh to cojstjb jrhjs. ]eh mrjnjtac rhmuctaol od njlkrovh covhrjkh al JSHJL(]jgbh =) coubm teus jnpbady teh anpjct od storns jlm tsuljnas.

]jgbh 36 Dorhst Jrhj al teh JSHJL Whkaol al :159799;

JSHJL Nhnghrs Dorhst Jrhj (`n7Jllujb Wjth

od Cejlkh)

:159 :119 7999 799;Grulha Mjrussjbjn =,539 3,:39 =,=39 =,359 9.:=Cjngomaj :79,399 :71,=49 ::8,=:9 :99,91= :.44Almolhsaj :,7=4,779 :,:48,4;9 1;5,879 5=;,877 :.4;Bjo YMW :==,;99 :;3,:=9 11,337 14,=9; 9.3;Njbjysaj 7:;,779 773,;49 79:,499 :14,439 9.3:Nyjlnjr 371,719 317,:19 3=8,8=9 3:7,199 :.:5Yeabappalhs ::9,749 :98,;=9 ;1,=19 45,=;7 :.;3Salkjporh 89 73 73 73 9]ejabjlm :51,139 :81,489 :=5,:=9 :==,97= 9.38

Taht Ljn :94,359 13,439 ::;,789 :3=,:3= :.59JSHJL 7,=49,:59 7,==4,313 7,951,;=7 :,19=,813 :.::

Sourch6 JSHJL Chltrh dor Gaomavhrsaty,JSHJL Gaomavhrsaty Outboo , Yeabappalhs, 79:9

]jgbh =6 Jrhj Covhrjkh od Njlkrovhs al teh JSHJL Whkaol

JSHJLNhnghrs

:159`n

79987 `n

:159 jlm 7998maddhrhlch7

Yhrchltjkh to JSHJLtotjb rhnjalalk Njlkrovh

Jrhj`n %

GrulhaMjrussjbjn :5=.9 :5=.8 - - 9.=

Cjngomaj 1:7.9 417.9 779.9 7=.: :.8Almolhsaj =7,999.9 71,999.9 :3,999.9 3=.: 4:.;Bjo YMW - - - - -Njbjysaj 4,;=9.9 8,489.9 :,919.9 :4.7 :7.9Nyjljnjr 8,888.9 8,9;9.9 =58.9 5.; -Yeabappalhs 7,189.9 7,=99.9 889.9 :5.4 8.::Salkjporh :;.1 8.9 :7.1 ;7.: 9.9:]ejabjlm 7,599.9 7,=99.9 =99.9 :=.3 8.::Taht Ljn 7,41:.8 :,8;9.9 :,:7:.8 =:.; 3.3=JSHJL 43,589.= =4,1;:.9 :4,5;1.9 74.= ~:99%

Sourch6 JSHJL Chltrh dor Gaomavhrsaty,JSHJL Gaomavhrsaty Outboo , Yeabappalhs, 79:9.


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:4

]jgbh 86 JSHJLs Kojbs jlm Nhjsurhs Whbjthm to Cbanjth Cejlkh

]eh JSHJL Tasaol 7979 cjbbs dor j cbhjl jlm krhhl JSHJL wate dubby hstjgbasehm nhcejlasns to

hlsurh teh prothctaol od teh hlvarolnhlt, jlm teh sustjaljgbh ush jlm njljkhnhlt od ljturjbrhsourchs, jlm eake qujbaty od badh dor phopbh al teh rhkaol.

Kojb6

JSHJL Mhcbjrjtaol ol Hlvarolnhltjb Sustjaljgabaty (:3te JSHJL Sunnat al 799;)0Nhjsurhs (salch 799;)6

JSHJL Mhcbjrjtaol ol COY-:3 to teh XLDCCC jlm CNY-3 to teh @yoto Yrotocob (:3te JSHJLSunnat al 799;)0Salkjporh Mhcbjrjtaol ol Cbanjth Cejlkh, Hlhrky jlm teh Hlvarolnhlt (3rm HJS Sunnat al 799;)0Foalt Nalasthrajb Stjthnhlt od teh :st HJS Hlhrky Nalasthrs Nhhtalk (799;)0Nalasthrajb Stjthnhlt od teh Aljukurjb HJS Hlvarolnhlt Nalasthrs Nhhtalk (7995)0JSHJL Foalt Stjthnhlt ol Cbanjth Cejlkh to COY-:8 to teh XLDCCC jlm CNY-8 to teh@yoto Yrotocob (:8te JSHJL Sunnat al 7991)0Salkjporh Whsobutaol ol Hlvarolnhltjb Sustjaljgabaty jlm Cbanjth Cejlkh (::te JNNH al 7991).

Sourch6 JSHJL Shcrhtjrajt

]jgbh 46 Masjsthrs* gy Coultry, 79997991

Coultry Lunghr Sejrh (%)Cjngomaj :4 3.:9Almolhsaj :87 71.=4Bjo YMW 1 :.;=Njbjysaj 3= 4.81Nyjlnjr := 7.;:Yeabappalhs :=8 75.:9Salkjporh 7 9.31]ejabjlm 8= :9.=;]anor-Bhsth 5 :.88Taht Ljn 57 :8.51:99.99 8:4 :99

*Masjsthrs alcbumh6 Mrouket0 Hjrtequj`h (shasnac jctavaty)0 Hpamhnac0 Hxtrhnh thnphrjturh0 Dboom0 Alshctaldhstjtaol0 Njss novhnhlt mry0 Njss novhnhlt wht0 Storn0 Tobcjlo0 [abmdarh.Sourch6 HN-MJ]6 ]eh ODMJ/CWHM Althrljtaoljb Masjsthr Mjtjgjsh,www.hnmjt.gh(Xlavhrsat Cjteobaquh mh Bouvjal, Grusshbs).

JSHJL js j sugrhkaol jbso djchs sphcajb mjlkhrs od ats owl wehl at conhs to cbanjthcejlkh. Wjnjl Bhtcunjljl, Ehjm od teh Hlvarolnhlt Mavasaol, JSHJL Shcrhtjrajt,puts teh shcuraty anpbacjtaols od cbanjth cejlkh dor JSHJL succalctby6

JSHJL as pjrtacubjrby vublhrjgbh to teh anpjcts od cbanjth cejlkh muh to tehcolchltrjtaol od phopbh jlm hcolonac jctavatahs al teh cojstjb jrhjs, ats racegaobokacjb mavhrsaty, rhsourch-gjshm hcolonahs, jlm teh alcrhjshm vublhrjgabatyod teh phopbh hsphcajbby teh poor. Muh to ats khobokacjb jlm khokrjpeacjbdjctors, teh rhkaol as jbso olh od teh worbms vublhrjgbh rhkaols to suddhr dron jrjlkh od cbanjctac jlm ljturjb ejzjrms suce js hjrtequj`hs, typeools, shjbhvhb rash, vobcjlac hruptaols, mroukets, ehjt wjvhs jlm tsuljnas weace jrhghconalk norh drhquhlt jlm shvhrh. Al jmmataol, teh khopeysacjb jlm cbanjctaccolmataols sejrhm gy teh rhkaol ejvh jbso bhm to connol jlm trjls-goulmjry
http://www.emdat.be/http://www.emdat.be/


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:;

hlvarolnhltjb colchrls suce js jar jlm wjthr pobbutaol, urgjl hlvarolnhltjbmhkrjmjtaol jlm trjls-goulmjry ejzh pobbutaol. 74

Mhspath teh wamhsprhjm dhjr od thrrorast jttjc`s al Soutehjst Jsaj spjr`hm gy teh Gjbajlm Fj`jrtj gongalks al teh 7999s, thrrorasn ejs provhl to gh jl hxjkkhrjthm ras` dor

JSHJL. Nomhrl thrrorasn as truby j trjlsljtaoljb terhjt, kavhl teh jgabaty od rjmacjbkroups to pbjl jlm hxhcuth jttjc`s al shvhrjb coultrahs jt teh sjnh tanh, ophrjthjcross ljtaoljb goulmjrahs, jlm shcurh dulms jlm otehr dorns od support sourchsworbmwamh. Yjrt od teh crhmat dor teas seoubm gh kavhl to alcrhjsalk vakabjlch jlmprhvhltavh jctaols gy almavamujb JSHJL kovhrlnhlts, alcbumalk, jdthr j phraom odehsatjlcy, lhwby mhnocrjtac Almolhsaj. Jbso anportjlt whrh vjraous dorns od gabjthrjbjlm nubtabjthrjbgote altrj-JSHJL jlm hxtrj-JSHJLalthbbakhlch sejralk jlmcoulthr-thrrorasn coophrjtaol. [ejthvhr teh rhjsol, at as cbhjr tejt teh FhnnjeAsbjnaje kroup, al coophrjtaol wate Jb Zjhmj, as ejrmby al j posataol to hstjgbase jrhkaoljb lhtwor` od thrror (or jl Asbjnac Cjbapejth alcorporjtalk thrratorahs dronNjbjysaj, soutehrl Yeabappalhs, Salkjporh, Almolhsaj, soutehrl ]ejabjlm, jlm hvhllortehrl Justrjbaj, js sonh jljbysts ejm dhjrhm), wate j vahw to shraousby masruptalk

tourasn, trjvhb, hcolonac mhvhbopnhlt, jlm pobatacjb stjgabaty al teh rhkaol. Norhovhr,js lothm, js wate otehr trjlsljtaoljb terhjts, hsphcajbby pjlmhnacs, ljturjb masjsthrsjlm mruk trjddac`alk, teh terhjts od thrrorasn jlm parjcy ejvh provhl to gh j cjtjbyst dorrhkaoljb coophrjtaol (]jgbh ;). ]eas satujtaol as ulba`hby to cejlkh al teh dorhshhjgbhduturh, gjrralk j cobbjpsh od teh Almolhsajl stjth.

]jgbh ;6 JSHJL Coophrjtaol ol ]hrrorasn

JSHJL Mhcbjrjtaol ol ]rjlsljtaoljb Cranh, Njlabj, 79 Mhchnghr, :11; JSHJL Ybjl od Jctaol to congjt ]rjlsljtaoljb Cranh, :111 JSHJL Mhcbjrjtaol ol Foalt Jctaol to Coulthr ]hrrorasn, Gjlmjr Shra Ghkjwjl, 8 Lovhnghr

799: Mhcbjrjtaol ol ]hrrorasn od teh Haket JSHJL Sunnat, Lovhnghr 7997 Jkrhhnhlt ol Aldornjtaol Hxcejlkh jlm Hstjgbasenhlt od Connulacjtaol Yrochmurh,

Yutrjfjyj, Njbjysaj, ; Njy 7997 [or` Yrokrjnnh to Anpbhnhlt teh JSHJL Ybjl od Jctaol to Congjt ]rjlsljtaoljb Cranh,

@ujbj Bunpur, :; Njy 7997 ]rhjty ol Nutujb Jssastjlch al Cranaljb Njtthrs, @ujbj Bunpur, 71 Lovhnghr 799= JSHJL Colvhltaol ol Coulthr thrrorasn, Chgu, Yeabappalhs, :3 Jprab 799;

Althrljtaoljb Coophrjtaol6Jkrhhnhlts wate teh XS, Justrjbaj, jlm Fjpjl0JSHJLXS Connol Mhcbjrjtaol ol anprovalk coophrjtaol ghtwhhl althbbakhlt jkhlcahs, Fuby 79970

JSHJL jbso saklhm Foalt Mhcbjrjtaols wate jbb ats thl Majbokuh pjrtlhrs0[ate teh YWC jbso saklhm j Mhcbjrjtaol ol Lol ]rjmataoljb Shcuraty assuhs.

]eh SJWS hpasomh wjs j powhrdub rhnalmhr tejt pjlmhnac outgrhj`s jrhulprhmactjgbh, cboshby bal`hm to teh hddhcts od kbogjbazjtaol, jlm utthrby mhdajlt odljtaoljb gormhrs or ljtaoljb rhnhmahs. Nhrcadubby dor JSHJL, SJWS wjs seort-bavhm jlmats hcolonac costs, teouke lot alsakladacjlt, tobhrjgbh (]jgbh ;). Ejm at balkhrhm dor jyhjr, teh hcolonac mjnjkh woubm ejvh ghhl hlornous. Kavhl teh djct tejt lhw dornsod aldhctaous mashjsh jlm pjlmhnacs jrh mascovhrhm gy scahltasts wate jbjrnalk

74Wjnjl Bhtcunjljl, Ehjm od teh Hlvarolnhlt Mavasaol, JSHJL Shcrhtjrajt, As tehrh jl JSHJL Yobacy

ol Cbanjth Cejlkh, p.87. Jvjabjgbh jt6

ettp6//www7.bsh.jc.u`/AMHJS/pugbacjtaols/rhports/pmd/SW99=/JSHC.pmd.
http://www2.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/reports/pdf/SR004/ASEC.pdfhttp://www2.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/reports/pdf/SR004/ASEC.pdfhttp://www2.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/reports/pdf/SR004/ASEC.pdf


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:5

rhkubjraty, duturh crashs muh to pjlmhnac outgrhj`s seoubm connjlm JSHJLs shraousjtthltaol (jlm tejt od Hjst Jsajl kroupalks ba`h teh JSHJL Ybus ]erhh PJY]^ jlm tehHjst Jsajl Sunnat PHJS^), js tehy ejvh molh salch 7993.

]jgbh 56 Cost od SJWS dor Hjst jlm Soutehjst Jsajl Hcolonahs al 7993Colsunhr Sphlmalk KMY ]DH

$ gabbaol % KMY $ gabbaol % KMY $ gabbaol % KMYYWC =,7 9,3 4,: 9,8 :;,1 :,3Eolk @olk, Cealj 3,= 7,7 =,4 7,1 :7,9 ;,4Whp. od @orhj 9,: 9,9 9,3 9,: 4,: :,7]japha,Cealj :,5 9,4 :,3 9,8 =,4 :,4Almolhsaj 9,3 9,: :,1 9,1Njbjysaj 9,= 9,= 3,9 7,1Yeabappalhs 9,9 9,9 9,4 9,;Salkjporh 9,4 9,; 7,; 3,9 5,9 1,9]ejabjlm :,9 9,; :,1 :,= =,8 3,7Taht Ljn 9,= :,: 9,= :,:]otjb :5,9 9,4 81,9 7,9

YWC > Yhopbhs Whpugbac od Cealj, KMY > kross monhstac promuct, ]DH > totjb daljb hxphlmaturh.Sourch6Jsshssalk teh Anpjct jlm Sourch od SJWS al Mhvhbopalk Jsaj, Jsajl Mhvhbopnhlt Outboo`, 7993,Xpmjth, p. 55.

Conphtataol dor hlhrky rhsourchs njy whbb worshl js j sourch od ravjbry jlm coldbact alJsaj jlm teh worbm dor teh lhxt twhlty yhjrs. Dor JSHJL, Salo-Almajl conphtataol dorjcchss to teh hlhrky rhsourchs od Nyjlnjr ouket to gh j njtthr od colchrl dorJSHJL, salch at ulmhrnalhs teh coophrjtaol ghtwhhl teh two Jsajl powhrs tejt as odghlhdat to JSHJL. Hxpborjtaols dor oab jlm kjs gy cbjanjlt ljtaols ejvh jbrhjmyjkkrjvjthm teh thrratorajb maspuths al teh Soute Cealj Shj. Ad sugstjltajb rhshrvhs jrh

doulm tehrh, at woubm bhjm to j mrjnjtac rash al thlsaols jnolk teh cbjanjlts, tehrhgyrhlmhralk JSHJL j njfor docjb poalt od kbogjb hlhrky conphtataol jlm coldbact. [jthras jlotehr sourch od althr-stjth ravjbry jlm rhkaoljb coldbact alvobvalk JSHJL jlm tehYWC, hsphcajbby al teh Nhòlk rhkaol wehrh teh YWCs guabmalk od j shrahs od mjns alteh upphr rhjcehs od teh ravhr ejs jbrhjmy cjushm jlxahty jlm mascolthltnhlt jnolkteh mowlstrhjn JSHJL coultrahs. Eow teh YWC ejlmbhs teh dbow od wjthr, kavhl atssakladacjlt anpbacjtaols dor dasehrahs jlm jkracubturh al njalbjlm Soutehjst Jsajl stjths,wabb gh jl anportjlt thst od teh YWCs rhkaoljb robh. [eabh JSHJL as lot marhctbyalvobvhm js jl alstatutaol al njljkalk teh Nhòlk assuh, at cjllot hscjph teh jmvhrshcolshquhlchs od thlsaols ovhr Nhòlk.

5. COLCBXSAOL6 JSHJLS DXW]EHW HTOBX]AOLJSHJLs arrhbhvjlch or hvhl mhjte ejs ghhl prhmacthm shvhrjb tanhs ghdorh. Jt garte al:14;, dhw phopbh teouket at woubm bjst j mhcjmh, kavhl tejt teh two prhvaous jtthnptsjt rhkaoljb coophrjtaol al Soutehjst Jsajteh Jssocajtaol od Soutehjst Jsaj jlm tehNJYEABALMO (Njbjysaj, Yeabappalhs, jlm Almolhsaj) colchptejm hlmhm wateal j dhwyhjrs jdthr tehar crhjtaol. ]eh NjbjysajYeabappalhs masputh ovhr Sjgje al :141, tehjdthrnjte od teh XS watemrjwjb dron Taht Ljn al :1;8, teh Tahtljnhsh alvjsaol odCjngomaj al :1;1, teh hlm od teh Cobm [jr, jlm teh outgrhj` od teh Jsajl daljlcajbcrasas al :11;, ejm jbb ghhl shhl js cratacjb gbows to JSHJL. Gut JSHJL survavhm jlmhvhl cjnh out j battbh strolkhr hjce tanh. So tehrh as rhjsol to gh optanastac tejtJSHJL wabb gh jroulm al 7939.


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:1

Gut survavalk as lot teh sjnh js teravalk. Al 7939, JSHJL naket stabb gh pbommalk ol,gut woubm at stabb gh j `hy pbjyhr al rhkaoljb phjch, stjgabaty, jlm prosphraty al Jsajjrobh at currhltby hlfoys? ]eas quhstaol as norh maddacubt to jlswhr.

]eh jlswhr naket gh doulm al terhh durtehr `hy quhstaols. Darst, wejt woubm gh

JSHJLs rhbjtaols wate teh krhjt powhrs? ]eh gakkhst dhjr dor JSHJL as tejt at wabb ghswhpt jsamh gy teh rash od ats two nost powhrdub annhmajth lhakegors, teh YWC jlmAlmaj, jlm teh rhsubtalk tamh od krhjt powhr conphtataol tejt woubm mrjw al teh XS jlmFjpjl js whbb. Js mascusshm jgovh, JSHJL hnhrkhm jt j tanh wehl Almaj jlm tehYWC ejm fust douket j wjr wate hjce otehr jlm djchm njfor monhstac cejbbhlkhs,alcbumalk Njos cubturjb rhvobutaol al teh YWC. Fjpjl al teh bjth :149s jlm :1;9s wjsstabb al rhcovhry nomh, pobatacjbby ad lot hcolonacjbby. ]eh dahbm wjs teus ophl dorJSHJL to jlceor rhkaoljb coophrjtaol.

]omjy teh satujtaol as vhry maddhrhlt. ]eh YWC jlm Almaj jrh rjcalk to foal Fjpjl jlmteh XS al teh krhjt powhr cbug, jlm shhàlk tehar raketdub pbjch jt teh top tjgbh od worbmjddjars. Fjpjl, teouke stjkljlt hcolonacjbby, as rhorahltalk atshbdjs j lornjb

stjthto jl jctavh pobatacjb jlm nabatjry robh al Jsaj.Sonh tealks rhnjal ulcejlkhm, eowhvhr. ]eh YWC, Fjpjl, jlm Almaj mo cjlchb hjceotehr muh to tehar nutujb nastrust. Jbb terhh jlm teh XS wjlt JSHJL to jcchpt atsbhjmhrseap robh al Jsajl rhkaoljb coophrjtaol.

Sonh anjkalh j colchrt od powhrs mhvhbopalk al Jsaj, wehrhal teh YWC, Fjpjl, Almaj,jlm teh XS coubm foaltby njljkh rhkaoljb shcuraty assuhs. ]eas woubm njrkaljbazhJSHJL. Js j Soutehjst Jsajl sjyalk kohs, teh krjss suddhrs lot olby wehl tehhbhpejlts daket, gut jbso wehl tehy nj`h bovh. Gut jl Jsajl colchrt od powhrs woubmrhquarh teh powhrs to ovhrconh maddhrhlchs tejt jrh lhatehr thnporjry lor travajb.

J shcolm quhstaol jgout JSHJLs duturh6 [ejt woubm gh teh stjth od althr-JSHJLrhbjtaols? Ehrh, teh olkoalk sàrnasehs ol teh ]ejaCjngomajl gormhr mo lot alsparhcoldamhlch. Sannhralk ravjbrahs jlm nastrust coltaluh to cboum rhbjtaolseaps ghtwhhlSalkjporh jlm Njbjysaj, ]ejabjlm jlm Gurnj, jlm Njbjysaj jlm ]ejabjlm. Gut teas as jdjr cry dron teh :149s jlm :1;9s, jlm tehrh jrh kroulms dor optanasn tejt tehsh altrj-JSHJL coldbacts woubm lot moon teh orkjlazjtaol. ]ehy woubm lhhm to gh njljkhmcjrhdubby, eowhvhr, wate teh ehbp od hxastalk nhcejlasns jlm lhw nhcejlasns JSHJLas currhltby shhàlk to mhvhbop.

]eh tearm quhstaol as phrejps teh nost anportjlt6 [ejt woubm teh monhstac pobatacjbcoldakurjtaols od JSHJL coultrahs boo` ba`h? [oubm JSHJL coultrahs ghconh norhophl jlm mhnocrjtac? Almolhsaj ejs surhby tj`hl j njfor bhjp towjrms mhnocrjcy.Gut wh ejvh shhl j nabatjry tj`hovhr, eowhvhr grahd, al ]ejabjlm al 7994 jlmcoltalualk drustrjtaol wate Gurnj. Monhstac succhssaol al njly JSHJL coultrahs

rhnjals ulchrtjal jlm hvhl vobjtabh. Monhstac turgubhlch cjl spabb ovhr gormhrs jlmbanat JSHJL nhnghrs jgabaty to coltraguth to teh rhkaoljb pugbac koom. Js j rhkaoljbkroup, JSHJL cjllot sejph teh monhstac pobatacs od ats nhnghrs, gut j cobbhctavhconnatnhlt to pjrtacapjtory mhnocrjcy jlm rhkaoljbasn mohs ehbp. ]eh amhj od jYhopbhs JSHJL as pronasalk, gut teus djr teas ejs olby nhjlt dosthralk cubturjbhxcejlkhs jlm coophrjtaol, lot pronotalk or mhdhlmalk mhnocrjcy (jbteoukeAlmolhsajs hddorts terouke teh Gjba Mhnocrjcy Dorun as prjashwortey). JSHJL ejsnjmh j thltjtavh connatnhlt to eunjl rakets, gut teas rhnjals colstrjalhm gy tehrhsabahlch od teh lol-althrdhrhlch lorn.

Al hsshlch, to stjy rhbhvjlt jlm phrdorn hddhctavhby js teh dubcrun od khopobatacjbstjgabaty al Jsaj, JSHJL nust connat atshbd to dour kojbs6


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Chltrjbaty6 ]eh pralcapbh od JSHJL chltrjbaty anpbahs tejt JSHJL nust `hhp ats shjt jtteh mravhrs tjgbh od teh nost anportjlt hxastalk Jsajl rhkaoljb alstatutaols, hsphcajbbyteh JSHJL Whkaoljb Dorun (JWD) jlm teh Hjst Jsajl Sunnat (HJS), jlm tejt atseoubm lot jbbow atshbd to gh samhbalhm or njrkaljbazhm gy teh alatajtavhs od otehrs,hsphcajbby teh krhjt powhrs, to mhvhbop lhw or conphtalk rhkaoljb gomahs covhralkJsaj js j weobh. ]eh pralcapbh od JSHJL chltrjbaty as lot jl jccamhlt od eastory, gutroothm al pjst eastoracjb pobatacjb colmataols djvoralk Jsajs whj`hr stjths al mhvhbopalkrhkaoljb coophrjtaol. 7;

Conpbajlch6 ]eh shcolm kojb as jgout conpbajlch. JSHJL ejs j nubtatumh od obm jlmlhw mhcbjrjtaols, jkrhhnhlts, trhjtahs, colvhltaols, protocobs, pbjls od jctaol,gbuhpralts, colcorms, htc., to jmmrhss j krowalk lunghr od obm jlm lhw cejbbhlkhs. Gutteh `hy as to hlsurh nhnghrs conpbajlch. JSHJLs sonhtanhs whbb-mhshrvhmrhputjtaol js j tjb` seop sthns lot dron j bjc` od coophrjtavh alstrunhlts, gut dron tehdjaburh to jmehrh to tehn. Jlotehr assuh as tehar poor usjgabaty. JSHJL low ejs jprokrjn od nolatoralk nhnghr stjths conpbajlch wate teh gbuhpralts od ats terhhconnulatahs, gut nhrh conpbajlch wate anpbhnhltjtaol nhjsurhs woubm lot suddachulbhss teh nhcejlasns teus crhjthm jrh jctujbby put alto prjctach, lotjgby coldbactrhsobutaol nhcejlasns suce js teh Eake Coulcab jlm teh koom oddachs robh od tehShcrhtjry-Khlhrjb jlm teh JSHJL Cejar. JSHJL nust jbso hlkjkh al cjpjcaty-guabmalk to anpbhnhlt jlm rhjbazh ats vjraous pobatacjb jlm shcuraty ogfhctavhs, jsoutbalhm al teh Gbuhpralt dor teh JSHJL Yobatacjb Shcuraty Connulaty. Ljturjb masjsthrsjlm tehar njljkhnhlt alcrhjsalkby mhnjlm JSHJLs jtthltaol jlm rhsourchs,jbteouke ats anpjct as ba`hby to almuch coophrjtaol rjtehr tejl conphtataol. Almhhm,masjsthr njljkhnhlt as olh od teh jrhjs al weace JSHJL, jbolk wate teh JSHJLWhkaoljb Dorun, shhns to ejvh njmh colsamhrjgbh prokrhss.

Al otehr worms, JSHJL chltrjbaty as lot j rhsubt od tehkhlhrosaty od teh gak powhrs, gut j colshquhlch od two otehr bolk-thrn djctors. Darst,lolh od tehsh krhjt powhrsalcbumalk teh XS, teh YWC, Fjpjl, jlm Almajwoubm ghjcchptjgbh to teh rhst od teh rhkaol js teh sobh mravhr od rhkaoljbasn, js hjce cjrrahsgjkkjkh dron teh pjst. Shcolm, teh two nost anportjlt Hjst Jsajl powhrs, teh YWCjlm Fjpjl, mo lot dalm hjce otehr jcchptjgbh al suce j robh, jlm teh prosphct dor jSalo-Fjpjlhsh rjpprocehnhlt al teh njllhr od teh post-[jr Drjlco-Khrnjlrhcolcabajtaol, weace wabb provamh teh strolkhst cejbbhlkh to JSHJL chltrjbaty, mohs lotjpphjr ba`hby. Gut teas mohs lot nhjl JSHJL cjl tj`h teh chltrjbaty pralcapbh dor

krjlthm. At ejs conh ulmhr scrutaly dor kavalk JSHJL too nuce coltrob. Cratacs odJSHJL chltrjbaty jrkuh tejt JSHJL njy lot gh jgbh to nusthr teh rhsourchs jlmpobatacjb wabb to hxhrcash jl hddhctavh bhjmhrseap robh al mhjbalk wate teh gak assuhs od tehmjy. JSHJL seoubm mo ats ghst to jmmrhss gote phrchptaols, wate j pro-jctavh jlmrogust systhn dor mhjbalk wate rhkaoljb crashs jlm jmvjlcalk connol profhcts, wateoutmabutalk ats chltrjbatyj njfor cejbbhlkh dor teh orkjlazjtaol al teh conalk yhjrs.

Coldbact Whsobutaol6 JSHJLs prjctach od swhhpalk coldbacts ulmhr teh cjrpht as lobolkhr jmhqujth, ad hvhr at wjs. Js wate monhstac coldbacts jlm thrrorasn, jt bhjst sonhalthr-stjth jlm rhkaoljb coldbacts rhquarh j rhsobutaol od tehar root cjushs al ormhr to ghrhnovhm phrnjlhltby js gjrrahrs to stjgabaty jlm coophrjtaol. JSHJL seoubm teushngrjch teh cejbbhlkh od coldbact rhsobutaol js whbb js prhvhltavh mapbonjcy. ]eh JWDejs pursuhm tehsh kojbs salch ats alchptaol, gut teh coldbact rhsobutaol ogfhctavh wjsrhljnhm to j shhnalkby allocuous perjsh6 hbjgorjtaol od jpprojcehs to coldbacts,rhporthmby jt teh YWCs alsasthlch. JSHJL seoubm low shh` coldbact rhsobutaol js pjrtod ats owl jkhlmj, gy nj`alk hxastalk rhkaoljb jrgatrjtaol nhcejlasns norh furamacjb

7;

Jcejryj, [eosh Amhjs Njtthr6 Jkhlcy jlm Yowhr al Jsajl Whkaoljbasn(Atejcj, LQ6 Corlhbb XlavhrsatyYrhss, 7991).


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7:

(wate teh ehbp od j Coulcab od tearm-pjrty fumkhs, dor hxjnpbh), jlm altromucalk j chrtjalmhkrhh od jutonjtacaty to tehar anpbhnhltjtaol.

Connol/Coophrjtavh Shcuraty6 [eabh teas as j whbb-hstjgbasehm pralcapbh od JSHJL jlmteh JWD, sustjalalk at dor teh bolk-thrn cjllot gh tj`hl dor krjlthm. ]eh `hy to teas

pralcapbh as alcbusavhlhss (alvatalk jbb rhbhvjlt jctors to teh tjgbh jlm hxcbumalk lolh)jlm lol-mascranaljtaol or anpjrtajbaty (kavalk hqujb trhjtnhlt to jbb jctors, alcbumalkteh krhjt powhrs, rhdrjalalk dron tj`alk samhs al teh coldbacts jnolk tehn, jlm oddhralktehn j condortalk jtnospehrh to sort out tehar maddhrhlchs). Js teh YWCs powhrkrows, almavamujb JSHJL nhnghrs njy gh thnpthm jlm nj`h opportulastac novhs totj`h teh YWCs samh ol cratacjb thrratorajb or strjthkac assuhs. ]ehrh as lo hvamhlch js yhttejt hatehr teh YWC or Almaj as pursualk j mavamh-jlm-rubh jpprojce towjrms JSHJL,gut teh YWC njy gh thnpthm to mo so al duturh wehl ats corh althrhsts jrh jt stj`h, gyoddhralk sonh JSHJL nhnghrs sugstjltajb rhwjrms dor tehar hxcbusavh drahlmseap (sucejs hcolonac jlm nabatjry jam, j djvorjgbh stjlch towjrms tehar thrratorajb cbjans,shpjrjth gabjthrjb mhjbs wate almavamujb cbjanjlts to teh Soute Cealj Shj, or pobatacjbsupport dor rhkanhs djcalk althrljtaoljb prhssurh ovhr eunjl rakets or mhnocrjcy).

Whsastalk thnptjtaols od suce j sphcajb rhbjtaolseap wate teh YWC (or Almaj or teh XSdor tejt njtthr) jlm njaltjalalk ats eolhst gro`hr anjkh jlm lhutrjb robh al mhjbalkwate teh krhjt powhrs jrh vatjb dor JSHJL to stjy rhbhvjlt al teh nubtapobjr Jsajl ormhr.Suce jl jpprojce seoubm gh colsasthlt wate teh colchpt od myljnac hquabagraunaltromuchm gy Njrty Ljtjbhkjwj, teh Dorhakl Nalasthr od Almolhsaj jlm teh cejar odJSHJL al 79::.75

Al colcbusaol, olh coubm anjkalh JSHJL al 7939 hatehr js teh wash coulshbor od Jsaj,or js j njrkaljbazhm rhbac od teh pjst. Jpprojcealk ats nam-saxtahs, at coubm stabb gh jt atsphj`, dulctaolalk js j sthjmy jlm cjbnalk aldbuhlch ol teh rasalk powhrs od JsajAlmajjlm teh YWC. Or at naket ejvh bost ats ghjralks, jnamst teh coldusaol od prodoulmcejlkhs al teh rhkaoljb hcolonac jlm nabatjry gjbjlch od powhr.

]o jvoam teh bjtthr djth, JSHJLs bhjmhrs nust stjy ulathm, strhlktehl nhcejlasns dorcoophrjtaol, sthjmdjstby njaltjal ats lhutrjb gro`hr anjkh jnolk teh krhjt powhrs, jlmgh jtthltavh to tehar phopbhs voachs. Gy moalk so, tehy wabb ejvh j koom cejlch odrhtjalalk JSHJLs mravhrs shjt al Jsajl rhkaoljb coophrjtaol.

75Myljnac hquabagraun as mastalct dron j gjbjlch od powhr jpprojce. [ehrhjs teh bjtthr as gjshm ol

jmvhrsjrajb jbbajlchs jlm cojbataols, myljnac hquabagraun nhjls hlkjkalk jbb njfor pbjyhrs to crhjth j

ghlakl jlm stjgbh rhkaoljb jrceathcturh (Juteors phrsoljb althrvahw wate Mr Njrty Ljtjbhkjwj, Fj`jrtj,8 Fuby 79::).


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77

WHDHWHLCHS

Jcejryj, J. 79::. Cjl Jsaj Bhjm? Yowhr Jngataols jlm Kbogjb Kovhrljlch al teh]whlty-Darst Chltury. Althrljtaoljb Jddjars5;(=)6 58:41.

Jcejryj, J. 79:9. Mhnocrjcy or Mhjte? [abb Mhnocrjtasjtaol Gralk Krhjthr WhkaoljbAlstjgabaty to Hjst Jsaj? Yjcadac Whvahw 73(3)6 33885.

Jcejryj, J. 7991. Colstructalk j Shcuraty Connulaty al Soutehjst Jsaj6 JSHJL jlmteh Yrogbhn od Whkaoljb Ormhr, shcolm hmataol. Oxdorm jlm Bolmol6 Woutbhmkh.

Jcejryj, J. 7991. [eosh Amhjs Njtthr6 Jkhlcy jlm Yowhr al Jsajl Whkaoljbasn.Atejcj, LQ6 Corlhbb Xlavhrsaty Yrhss.

Jcejryj, J. 7991. Whjbasn, Alstatutaoljbasn jlm teh Jsajl Hcolonac Crasas.Colthnporjry Soutehjst Jsaj 7:(:)(Jprab)6 :71.

Jmbhr, H., jlm N. Gjrlhtt. :115. J Drjnhwor` dor teh Stumy od Shcuraty Connulatahs.

Al6 Shcuraty Connulatahs, hmathm gy

Scewjrtz, Y., jlm M. Wjlmjbb. 7993. Jl Jgrupt Cbanjth Cejlkh Schljrao jlm AtsAnpbacjtaols dor Xlathm Stjths Ljtaoljb Shcuraty. Jvjabjgbhjt6

H. Jmbhr jlm N. Gjrlhtt. Cjngramkh6Cjngramkh Xlavhrsaty Yrhss.

ettp6//www.krast.ork/pmd/JgruptCbanjthCejlkh7993.pmd.

So`obs`y, W., J. Wjgjsj, jlm C.W. Lhu. 799:. ]eh Wobh od Soutehjst Jsaj al X.S.Strjthky ]owjrm Cealj. Sjltj Nolacj, CJ6 ]eh Wjlm Corporjtaol.

]owlshlm, N., jlm Y. Ejrras 799;. Low teh Yhltjkol ]hbbs Guse6 Cbanjth Cejlkh [abbMhstroy Xs. ]eh Ogshrvhr. 77 Dhgrujry 799=. Jvjabjgbhjt6ettp6//jrceavhs.zalhsthr.con/:3:53/::;387.etnb.Jcchsshm 78 Jprab 799;.

]eh CLJ Corporjtaol. 799;.Ljtaoljb Shcuraty jlm teh ]erhjt od CbanjthCejlkh.Jbhxjlmraj, TJ. Jvjabjgbh jt6ettp6//shcuratyjlmcbanjth.clj.ork/.Jcchsshm 78 Jprab 799;.

[hsshb, A., jlm K. [aneodhr, hms. 799:. Taobhlch al Almolhsaj. Ejngurk, Khrnjly6Jghrj-Thrbjk.

Althrljtaoljb Yhjch Whshjrce Alstatuth. 79::. [orbm Jrnjnhlts jlmMasjrnjnhlt6 SAYWA Qhjrgoo`. Oxdorm6Oxdorm Xlavhrsaty Yrhss.
http://www.grist.org/pdf/AbruptClimateChange2003.pdfhttp://www.grist.org/pdf/AbruptClimateChange2003.pdfhttp://archives.zinester.com/13183/117352.htmlhttp://securityandclimate.cna.org/http://securityandclimate.cna.org/http://archives.zinester.com/13183/117352.htmlhttp://www.grist.org/pdf/AbruptClimateChange2003.pdf


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73

JYYHLMAU :6 SXNNJWQ OD ]EH JSHJL SHCXWA]QGBXHYWAL]

]eh JYSC Gbuhpralt as janhm jt provamalk teh rojmnjp jlm tanhtjgbh tohstjgbase teh JSHJL Shcuraty Connulaty gy 79:8. At as kuamhm gy tehJSHJL Cejrthr jlm gy teh pralcapbhs coltjalhm tehrhal. Lotjgby, teh JYSCjlm teh JSHJL Cejrthr sugscragh to j conprhehlsavh jpprojce toshcuraty, weace jc`lowbhmkhs teh althrwovhl rhbjtaolseaps ghtwhhl jbbmanhlsaols od shcuraty pobatacjb, hcolonac, socao-cubturjb, jlmhlvarolnhltjb mhvhbopnhlt. ]ehrhdorh, ol olh ejlm teh JYSC pronothsteh rhlulcajtaol od jkkrhssaol jlm od teh terhjt jlm ush od dorch jlm, alteas rhkjrm at upeobms teh hxastalk JSHJL nhcejlasns (VOYDJL, teh ]JC,jlm teh ]rhjty ol Soutehjst Jsaj Lucbhjr [hjpol Drhh Volh), gut ol tehotehr, jbso shh`s to jmmrhss lol-trjmataoljb shcuraty cejbbhlkhs.

Gjshm ol tehsh amhjs teh JYSC pursuhs teh dobbowalk terhh kojbs6:) J rubh-gjshm Connulaty od Sejrhm Lorns jlm Tjbuhs7) J Coehsavh, Yhjchdub, Stjgbh, jlm Whsabahlt rhkaol wate sejrhm

rhspolsagabaty dor conprhehlsavh shcuraty3) J myljnac jlm outwjrm boo`alk rhkaol al jl alcrhjsalkby althkrjthm

jlm althrmhphlmhlt worbm

]o jceahvh tehsh kojbs, teh JSHJL shcuraty Gbuhpralt outbalhs j lunghr odsphcadac jctavatahs tejt ejvh to gh ulmhrtj`hl gy JSHJL nhnghrs al tehdobbowalk jrhjs6

:.: J rubh-gjshm Connula ty od Sejrhm Lorns jlm Tjbuhs

Coophrjtaol al Yobatacjb Mhvhbopnhlt:.:. Yronoth Xlmhrstjlmalk jlm jpprhcajtaol od Yobatacjb systhns,

cubturh, jlm eastory od JSHJL nhnghrs:.7. Bjy teh Kroulmwor` dor jl alstatutaoljb drjnhwor` to djcabatjth drhh

dbow od aldornjtaol dor nutujb support jlm jssastjlch od JSHJLnhnghrs

:.3. Hstjgbase Yrokrjnnhs dor Nutujb Support jlm Jssastjlch jnolkJSHJL nhnghrs al teh Mhvhbopnhlt od Strjthkahs dor Strhlktehlalkteh rubh od Bjw jlm Fumacajry Systhn jlm Bhkjb Aldrjstructurh

:.=. Yronoth koom kovhrljlch:.8. Yronotaol jlm Yrothctaol od Eunjl Wakets:.4. Alcrhjsh teh pjrtacapjtaol od teh rhbhvjlt hltatahs jssocajthm wate

JSHJL al novalk dorwjrm JSHJL pobatacjb mhvhbopnhlt alatajtavhs:.;. Yrhvhlt jlm Congjt Corruptaol:.5. Yronoth Yralcapbhs od Mhnocrjcy:.1. Yronoth Yhjch jlm Stjgabaty al teh rhkaol

Sejpalk jlm Sejralk JSHJL Lorns

7.:. Jmfust JSHJL alstatutaoljb Drjnhwor` to conpby wate teh JSHJLCejrthr

7.7. Strhlktehlalk Coophrjtaol ulmhr teh ]JC7.3. Hlsurh teh dubb anpbhnhltjtaol od teh MOC dor teh Soute Cealj Shj7.= Hlsurh teh anpbhnhltjtaol od teh Soutehjst Jsajl Lucbhjr [hjpol

Drhh Volh ]rhjty jlm ats Ybjl od Jctaol


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7.8. Yronoth JSHJL Njratanh Coophrjtaol

7) J Coehsavh, Yhjchdub, Stjgbh, jlm Whsabahlt rhkaol wate sejrhmrhspolsagabaty dor conprhehlsavh shcuraty

Coldbact Yrhvhltaol/ Coldamhlch Guabmalk Nhjsurhs

:.:. Strhlktehl Coldamhlch Guabmalk Nhjsurhs:.7. Yronoth Krhjthr ]rjlspjrhlcy jlm Xlmhrstjlmalk od mhdhlsh

pobacahs jlm shcuraty phrchptaols:.3. Guabm up teh lhchssjry alstatutaoljb drjnhwor` to strhlktehl teh JWD

prochss al support od teh JSHJL Yobatacjb Shcuraty Connulaty:.=. Strhlktehl hddorts al njaltjalalk rhsphct dor thrratorajb althkraty,

sovhrhaklty jlm ulaty od JSHJL nhnghrs:.8. Yronoth teh mhvhbopnhlt od lorns tejt hlejlch JSHJL mhdhlsh

jlm shcuraty coophrjtaol

:.4. Coldbact rhsobutaol jlm pjcadac shttbhnhlt od maspuths:.; Guabmalk up od hxastalk nomhs od pjcadac shttbhnhlt od maspuths jlmcolsamhr strhlktehlalk tehn wate jmmataoljb nhcejlasns js lhhmhm

:.5. Strhlktehl rhshjrce jctavatahs ol phjch, coldbact njljkhnhlt, jlmcoldbact rhsobutaol

:.1 pronoth rhkaoljb coophrjtaol to njaltjal phjch jlm stjgabaty:.:9. Yost Coldbact phjch guabmalk:.::. Strhlktehl JSHJL Eunjlatjrajl Jssastjlch:.:7. Anpbhnhlt Eunjl Whsourchs jlm cjpjcaty guabmalk prokrjns al post

coldbact jrhjs:.:3. alcrhjsh coophrjtaol al rhcolcabajtaol jlm durtehr strhlktehl phjch-

orahlthm vjbuhs

Lol ]rjmataoljb shcuraty assuhs:.:. Strhlktehl Coophrjtaol al jmmrhssalk lol trjmataoljb shcuraty assuhs,

pjrtacubjrby al congjtalk trjlsljtaoljb cranh jlm otehr]rjlsgoulmjry cejbbhlkhs

:.7. althlsady coulthrthrrorasn hddorts gy hjrby rjtadacjtaol jlm dubbanpbhnhltjtaol ol teh JSHJL Colvhltaol ol Coulthrthrrorasn

:.3. Strhlktehl JSHJL Coophrjtaol ol Masjsthr Njljkhnhlt jlmHnhrkhlcy rhspolsh

:.=. Hddhctavh jlm ]anhby rhspolsh to urkhlt assuhs or crasas satujtaolsjddhctalk JSHJL

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