asean economic community: prospects & challenges
TRANSCRIPT
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ASEAN Update Seminars Organised by ASEAN-Japan Centre
Tokyo & Nagoya
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY: Prospects & Challenges
by Pushpanathan Sundram,
former Deputy Secretary-General of ASEAN
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Scope
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Introduction The ASEAN Economy The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Progress Problems: Challenges & Threats Prospects: Strengths & Opportunities
Conclusions & Recommendations
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Introduction
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Population 617 million Area 4.5 million square km. Main religions Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism Combined GDP USD $ 2.3 billion Total Trade USD $ 2.4 billion
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The ASEAN Economy
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The ASEAN Economy
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ASEAN Population with selected DPs, 2002 & 2012
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The ASEAN Economy
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ASEAN GDP in PPP terms and real GDP Growth, 2012
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The ASEAN Economy
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The ASEAN Economy
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The ASEAN Economy
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GDP Per Capita of ASEAN and DPs (US Dollars), 2012
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The ASEAN Economy
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GDP Per Capita of ASEAN Members (US Dollars), 2012
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The ASEAN Economy
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ASEAN Intra-ASEAN Tariffs, 2013
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The ASEAN Economy
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ASEAN Trade in Goods
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The ASEAN Economy
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ASEAN Trade in GDP, 2013
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The ASEAN Economy
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ASEAN Trade with DPs, 2013
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The ASEAN Economy
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ASEAN Exports by Destination
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The ASEAN Economy
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ASEAN Imports by Origin
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The ASEAN Economy
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Total Exports - PIS
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The ASEAN Economy
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Export of Services
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The ASEAN Economy
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Export of Services
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The ASEAN Economy
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Imports of Services
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The ASEAN Economy
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Foreign Direct Investment
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The ASEAN Economy
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Foreign Direct Investment
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The ASEAN Economy
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Foreign Direct Investment by Country
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The ASEAN Economy
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Visitor Arrivals
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The AEC
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THE AEC
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2008 – Dec 2013: 80 % completed
The AEC Scorecard
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The AEC
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Progress
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Single Market Production Base Average tariffs 0.6% for ASEAN-6 & 67.6% for CLMV Regional Work Programme on NTMs adopted ASEAN Trade Repository (ATR) established ASEAN Wide Self-Certification being finalised ASEAN Single Window pilot project completed Legal protocol for ASW being drafted New ASEAN Customs Agreement signed Pilot project on ASEAN Customs Transit System being
undertaken
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Progress
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Single Market Production Base (contd) MRAs in the ASEAN priority integration sectors being
developed Under services (AFAS), 8 packages completed and 9th
being finalised MRAs for professional qualification recognition
concluded in 8 areas Agreement on Natural Movement of Persons signed Under Investment, ACIA has been signed and
reservation lists to be reduced in stages
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Progress
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Competitive Economic Region Competition Law and Authority in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand, &Vietnam ASEAN Experts Group on Competition in place Regional Guidelines on competition policy & Handbook on CP Laws
in ASEAN for Business published All member states have IP legislations but to different extent IPR Action Plan in place and a new one to be developed post-2015 Master Plan on ASEAN connectivity signed in 2010 and projects
being implemented ASEAN Infrastructure Fund established with the support and
management of ADB ASEAN Open Skies, ASEAN Single Shipping Market, ASEAN
Highway Network, SKRL, ASEAN Power Grid, Trans-ASEAN GAS Pipeline, Transport Facilitation Agreements etc
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Progress
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Equitable Economic Development SME Development: Strategic Plan for ASEAN SME
Development is in place ASEAN SME Advisory Board has been established IAI Strategic Framework and Work Plans guide the
capacity building needs of the less developed countries of ASEAN supported by self financing by ASEAN and Dialogue Partners assistance, including Japan
GMS programme and sub-regional development programmes (AMBDC, BIMP-EAGA etc) supports the IAI.
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Progress
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Fully Plugged into the Global Economy Five FTAs in place since 2010: China, Japan, RoK, India
and Australia-NZ TIFA with Canada and US ASEAN GCC & ASEAN MECOSUR ASEAN-EU FTA Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) TPP
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Progress
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Progress
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Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
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Progress
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Economic Architecture of East Asia
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Problems
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Challenges Development gaps - income, human capital, rule of law,
institutions, infrastructure Disparities in good governance, rule of law, lack of regulatory
convergence Large unskilled workforce Lack of ratification and implementation of ASEAN agreements Uneven trade conditions despite AFTA Reliance on FDIs – lack of industrial innovation Weak connection between ASEAN and sub-regional growth areas
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Problems
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Threats Incomplete achievement of AEC Vulnerability to external shocks Erosion of export driven development advantage Territorial disputes & regional tensions Rise of China and India Lack of effective disaster management Lack of cohesion on climate change, energy, water and food
security
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Prospects
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Strengths Robust economic growth for a decade Good macroeconomic fundamentals especially ASEAN-5 Adaptable open economies Wide ranging productive capabilities Diversified exports – by destination and product Young & growing population and expanding middle class Strong FDI with production networks Growing small and medium enterprises Successful regional cooperation track record Strong regional architecture Strong ASEAN cooperation initiatives
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Prospects
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Opportunities Strategic location and ASEAN centrality Huge market potential combined with China, India and Japan ASEAN FTAs Manufacturing connectivity and technological links with NEA Potential hub for education, health, tourism, R&D, logistics and
financial services APT financial cooperation: CMIM & AMRO Honest broker in APT and EAS Growing competitive ASEAN market
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Conclusions & Recommendations
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AEC Specific AEC will be a reality in 2015 but full integration will take time ASEAN’s growth will be driven by trade integration, FDIs, and
tourism among others AEC will be a production base and increasingly domestic
consumption will drive the ASEAN economy Trade facilitation, elimination of barriers to trade (goods &
services), investment, movement of skill labour & legal connectivity will be priorities
Global economic uncertainty will continue to affect the progress of ASEAN economy
Protectionism will continue to be an impediment until ASEAN finds a way to address NTBs effectively and put in place an effective dispute settlement mechanism
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Conclusions & Recommendations
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Business Companies will have to adopt a multi-local strategy for the
time being as integration is still in progress Companies should start looking at tapping on economies of
scales presented in some sectors like software and commodities and pharmaceuticals
Companies should start looking at a regional strategy within ASEAN and how to tap the various AEC agreements
Companies should utilise dedicated ASEAN industry/trade associations in working with ASEAN and shaping the policies and regulations in the AEC
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Thank You
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