asia illicit tobacco indicator 2016: new...
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Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016: New ZealandPrepared by Oxford EconomicsNovember 2017
22
DisclaimerThe Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016 Report (the “Report”) on the illicit tobacco trade in selected Asian markets (including Australia and New Zealand) has been prepared by Oxford Economics (OE). OE enjoyed academic freedom and full editorial control of the Report. We are grateful for the inputs and data received from public sector and industry stakeholders.
OE prepared the Report in accordance with specific terms of reference agreed between Philip Morris International Management SA, an affiliate of Philip Morris International (PM), and OE. Financial support for the Report was provided by PM. OE assume all responsibility for the Report analysis, findings, and conclusion. The terms of reference under which OE were engaged by Philip Morris International Management SA are detailed in the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016 Methodological Overview Report, available to download via the following link illicittobacco.oxfordeconomics.com
33 | New Zealand Market Summary
New Zealand: Legal Domestic Sales
3
1 A conversion rate of 0.7 grams per cigarette was applied to turn loose tobacco weight into cigarette equivalent, based on rates applied by the New Zealand Ministry of Health in its analysis of annual tobacco returns.
2Price per pack of 20 of the Most Sold Brand of cigarettes in October 2016, based on PM data.
Legal Domestic Sales:
2.5 bn cigarettes
Including RYO equivalent
New Zealand
Price:
NZD 21.6 USD 15.8
New Zealand Legal Domestic Sales of cigarettes and loose tobacco were estimated at 2.5 billion cigarettes (or cigarette equivalents) in 2016, a 5.0% decline from 2015.1
BAT is the dominant manufacturer in the market, accounting for two-thirds of Legal Domestic Sales. PM and Imperial Tobacco account for the large majority of the remaining one-third of sales.
Cigarette prices have increased progressively over the past four years, with annual increases in Excise Tax implemented at the start of each year. Excise Tax has been increased by 10% at the beginning of each year since 2013 (on top of the annual index-linked increase). The 2016 Budget stipulated further annual increases of 10% up to and including January 2020.
As a consequence, nominal cigarette prices in New Zealand are the highest in the Asia Pacific region, at NZD 21.6 per pack of 20 cigarettes (USD 15.8) in 2016 based on the Most Sold Brand.2 This is USD 0.4 higher than in Australia, and over USD 6.0 more expensive than in Singapore.
The legislated future increases in Excise Tax for the years ahead are set to take the price of a pack of 20 of the Most Sold Brand of cigarettes to an estimated NZD 32 by 2020.
The increases in Excise Tax, along with plain packaging legislation, which was introduced by Parliament in September 2016, are part of an ongoing government drive to cut the proportion of the adult population smoking to below 5% by 2025.
In November 2014 the passenger duty-free personal import allowance for adults entering New Zealand was cut to 50 cigarettes, or 50 grams of tobacco product.
44
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
201620152014201320122011201020092008
10.3%
11.1%11.3%
10.9%14.5%
0.29 0.310.35
0.39
0.490.44
0.610.67
0.55
NZD
per c
igar
ette
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201620152014201320122011201020092008
Ciga
rette
s bn
% o
f Tot
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
NZD per pack of 20 cigarettes
Cigarettes sales bnRYO cigarette equivalent
NZD per pack of 20 cigarettes 24
18
15
6
3
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
20162015
93.6
5.2
90.0
9.0
NZD
mn
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
1.1NDL 0.9
NDL
21
9
12
2,605 2,636
Ciga
rette
s mn
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
20162015
2,439
137 238
2,374
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
30NDL
25NDL
Actual ExciseTax revenues
Estimated Excise Tax Loss
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
FY 2016/17FY 2015/16
1,710 1,677
16686
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
201620152014201320122011201020092008
10.3%
11.1%11.3%
10.9%14.5%
0.29 0.310.35
0.39
0.490.44
0.610.67
0.55
NZD
per c
igar
ette
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201620152014201320122011201020092008
Ciga
rette
s bn
% o
f Tot
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
NZD per pack of 20 cigarettes
Cigarettes sales bnRYO cigarette equivalent
NZD per pack of 20 cigarettes 24
18
15
6
3
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
20162015
93.6
5.2
90.0
9.0
NZD
mn
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
1.1NDL 0.9
NDL
21
9
12
2,605 2,636
Ciga
rette
s mn
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
20162015
2,439
137 238
2,374
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
30NDL
25NDL
Actual ExciseTax revenues
Estimated Excise Tax Loss
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
FY 2016/17FY 2015/16
1,710 1,677
16686
Source: New Zealand Customs 3 Rate applied in October of each year to the Most Sold Brand of cigarettes. Includes Individual Excise Tax increases as well as annual index-linked rises.
Source: Oxford Economics based on PM data 4 Price per pack of the Most Sold Brand in October of each year. The Most Sold Brand changed from “Holiday” to “Pall Mall Baseline” in 2015. A conversion rate of 0.7 grams per cigarette was applied to turn loose tobacco weight into cigarette equivalent, based on rates applied by the New Zealand Ministry of Health in its analysis of annual tobacco returns.
New Zealand: Excise duty applied to cigarettes3
New Zealand: Legal Domestic Sales and prices4
New Zealand Market Summary |
55
New Zealand: Tobacco Consumption
Source: Oxford Economics1The Empty Pack Survey was undertaken in 2016 Q2 (see Report methodology for more details).2 New Zealand Ministry of Health annual tobacco returns 2016. A conversion rate of 0.7 grams per cigarette was applied to turn loose tobacco weight into cigarette equivalent, based on rates applied by the New Zealand Ministry of Health in their analysis of annual tobacco returns.
3 Illicit Tobacco Research Updates, Colmar Brunton (2015 and 2016).4ibid5 Some questions related to the frequency and volume of illicit RYO purchases that would otherwise facilitate an estimate of illicit RYO were omitted from the Colmar Brunton Illicit Tobacco Research consumer survey in 2016.
6 See http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/88414136/government-at-high-risk-of-losing-10-million-annually-if-tobacco-black-market-surges and http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2017/02/customs-makes-1-4-million-tobacco-bust.html
7 2015 figures have been restated based on updated data on Legal Domestic Sales, sourced from the New Zealand Ministry of Health annual tobacco returns. All references to cigarette consumption includes RYO equivalent. It is recognised that illicit RYO originates from both Non-Domestic and Domestic home-grown sources; however it is not possible to separate the two, and therefore for the purposes of this Report we consider all illicit RYO volumes to be of Non-Domestic origin.
| New Zealand Market Summary
New Zealand: Composition of cigarette consumption7
2015 2016 % change
2015-16 Cigarettes mn % Cigarettes
mn %
Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC) 2,439 93.6 2,374 90.0 -2.7
Legal Domestic Sales (LDS) 2,593 2,464 -5.0
Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes 154 91 -41.2
Total Non-Domestic Inflows (ND) 166 6.4 263 10.0 58.1
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL) 30 1.1 25 0.9 -16.1
Non-Domestic Illicit 128 4.9 229 8.7 78.9
Illicit RYO 8 0.3 9 0.3 1.2
Domestic Illicit 0 0.0 0 0.0 n/a
Total Consumption 2,605 100.0 2,636 100.0 1.2
Total Illicit Consumption 137 5.2 238 9.0 74.1
The results from the Empty Pack Survey,1 combined with annual tobacco returns sourced from the New Zealand Ministry of Health,2 and consumer survey data,3 were used to estimate Total Consumption of cigarettes in New Zealand. Total Consumption (legal and illicit) was estimated at 2.6 billion cigarettes in 2016. Of this, an estimated 90.0% or 2.4 billion cigarettes (or cigarette equivalents) is Legal Domestic Consumption, 0.9% is Non-Domestic Legal, and 9.0% or 238 million cigarettes is Illicit Consumption. Total Consumption was modestly higher in 2016 than a year earlier, rising by 1.2%. This was underpinned by a 74.1% rise in Illicit Consumption, with Legal Domestic Sales falling by 5.0% over the same period. The share of Illicit Consumption is estimated to have risen by 3.8pp between 2015 and 2016, equivalent to around 100 million illicit cigarettes (or cigarette equivalents) consumed. The 2016 Colmar Brunton Illicit Tobacco Research consumer survey found that respondents who identify themselves as daily RYO smokers have a higher propensity to purchase cheap cigarettes and tobacco compared with daily cigarette smokers, and that 8.2% reported buying cheap cigarettes or illicit RYO in the last 12 months, up from 7.6% in 2015.4
Despite this modest increase reported by daily RYO smokers, and given that RYO illicit accounts for such a small share of Total Consumption, Colmar Brunton concluded that in aggregate there was no significant shift in the reported purchase of illicit tobacco products in New Zealand in comparison with 2015. We have therefore applied the same share of illicit RYO calculated in 2015 to estimate 2016 figures for Illicit Consumption.5
The growth in Illicit Consumption illustrated by this Report is consistent with observations from New Zealand Customs, who have identified “notable growth” in New Zealand’s illicit market, based on a 2016 report obtained by media outlets via the Official Information Act. The Customs department has remained vigilant to the influx of illicit tobacco products, recently making its largest-ever tobacco seizure of 5.7 tonnes with a retail value of NZD 1.4 million.6
66
Source: Oxford Economics 1Cigarettes and RYO equivalent
Source: Oxford Economics 2Cigarettes and RYO equivalent
New Zealand: Composition of cigarette consumption (% of Total Consumption)1
New Zealand: Composition of cigarette consumption (number of cigarettes)2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
201620152014201320122011201020092008
10.3%
11.1%11.3%
10.9%14.5%
0.29 0.310.35
0.39
0.490.44
0.610.67
0.55
NZD
per c
igar
ette
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201620152014201320122011201020092008Ci
gare
ttes b
n%
of T
otal
Con
sum
ptio
nNZD per pack of 20 cigarettes
Cigarettes sales bnRYO cigarette equivalent
NZD per pack of 20 cigarettes 24
18
15
6
3
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
20162015
93.6
5.2
90.0
9.0
NZD
mn
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
1.1NDL 0.9
NDL
21
9
12
2,605 2,636
Ciga
rette
s mn
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
20162015
2,439
137 238
2,374
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
30NDL
25NDL
Actual ExciseTax revenues
Estimated Excise Tax Loss
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
FY 2016/17FY 2015/16
1,710 1,677
16686
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
201620152014201320122011201020092008
10.3%
11.1%11.3%
10.9%14.5%
0.29 0.310.35
0.39
0.490.44
0.610.67
0.55
NZD
per c
igar
ette
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201620152014201320122011201020092008
Ciga
rette
s bn
% o
f Tot
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
NZD per pack of 20 cigarettes
Cigarettes sales bnRYO cigarette equivalent
NZD per pack of 20 cigarettes 24
18
15
6
3
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
20162015
93.6
5.2
90.0
9.0
NZD
mn
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
1.1NDL 0.9
NDL
21
9
12
2,605 2,636
Ciga
rette
s mn
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
20162015
2,439
137 238
2,374
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
30NDL
25NDL
Actual ExciseTax revenues
Estimated Excise Tax Loss
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
FY 2016/17FY 2015/16
1,710 1,677
16686
New Zealand Market Summary |
77
New Zealand: Government Finances New Zealand operates a weight-based-specific Excise Tax system. As of 1st January 2016, for manufactured cigarettes weighing less than or equal to 0.8kg of actual tobacco content per thousand cigarettes, a rate of NZD 668.51 per thousand cigarettes applied. For manufactured cigarettes containing more than 0.8kg of actual tobacco content per thousand cigarettes, as well as smoking tobacco, homogenised or reconstituted tobacco, the duty rate was NZD 952.62 per kg of tobacco content. For all other tobacco products, including snuff, cigars, cheroots, and cigarillos, the duty rate was NZD 835.61 per kg of tobacco content. The Government announced in the 2012 budget a series of four annual 10% Excise Tax increases between 2013 and 2016. The final increase in this series was implemented on 1st January 2016. The 2016 Budget then legislated for a new series of four annual increases at the same rate, beginning on 1st January 2017. In addition to the 10% annual increase, Excise Tax rates are subject to an annual indexation increase, based on the Consumer Price Index (excluding credit services). Excise Tax increases are implemented on 1st January every year and are based on the 12-month period to September the previous year. As such, the applicable Excise Tax rates rose by 10.4% on 1st January 2017, to NZD 738.13 per thousand cigarettes for manufactured cigarettes with 0.8kg of actual tobacco or below per thousand cigarettes, NZD 1,051.83 per kg of tobacco content for manufactured cigarettes containing more than 0.8kg of actual tobacco, smoking tobacco, homogenised or reconstituted tobacco, and NZD 922.64 per kg of tobacco content for all other products. A 15% GST tax is also levied on all retail sales of cigarettes. Total revenues from Excise Tax duties on tobacco were reported at NZD 1.7 billion in the 2016/17 fiscal year. This represents a 2.0% decline in actual revenues, compared with an estimated 4.0% decline in Legal Domestic Sales over the fiscal year, which runs from July to June.1
Our estimates indicate that the Tax Loss associated with Illicit Consumption of cigarettes and RYO in the fiscal year 2016/17 amounted to NZD 200 million (USD 142 million), representing an increase of 89.2% in comparison with the 2015/16 fiscal year. The Excise Tax Loss as a share of total potential Excise Tax revenues was equal to 9.0%, an increase of 4.2pp compared with the previous fiscal year.
Source: New Zealand Treasury Department and Oxford Economics based on PM dataEstimated number of illicit cigarettes purchased adjusted for fiscal year, which runs from July to June. Includes loose tobacco. A conversion rate of 0.7 grams per cigarette was applied to turn loose tobacco weight into cigarette equivalent, based on rates applied by the New Zealand Ministry of Health in its analysis of annual tobacco returns.1Based on PM IMS data on Legal Domestic Sales.
New Zealand: Actual government revenues and estimated Tax Loss1
2015-16 fiscal year
2016-17 fiscal year % change
in local currency
2015/16-2016/17NZD mn
USD mn
NZD mn
USD mn
Actual revenue from excise duties on tobacco 1,710 1,142 1,677 1,195 -2.0%
Estimated number of illicit cigarettes purchased (cigarettes mn) 128 229 79.0%
Estimated volume of illicit loose tobacco purchased (cigarettes equivalent mn) 8 8 -1.8%
Estimated Tax Loss from Illicit Consumption 106 71 200 142 89.2%
Lost excise revenue 86 58 166 118 92.2%
Lost VAT revenue 19 13 34 24 76.0%
Excise Tax Loss as % of potential total Excise Tax revenues 4.8% 9.0%
| New Zealand Market Summary
88
Source: New Zealand Treasury Department and Oxford Economics based on PM data
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
201620152014201320122011201020092008
10.3%
11.1%11.3%
10.9%14.5%
0.29 0.310.35
0.39
0.490.44
0.610.67
0.55
NZD
per c
igar
ette
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
201620152014201320122011201020092008
Ciga
rette
s bn
% o
f Tot
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
NZD per pack of 20 cigarettes
Cigarettes sales bnRYO cigarette equivalent
NZD per pack of 20 cigarettes 24
18
15
6
3
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
20162015
93.6
5.2
90.0
9.0
NZD
mn
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
1.1NDL 0.9
NDL
21
9
12
2,605 2,636
Ciga
rette
s mn
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
20162015
2,439
137 238
2,374
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
Illicit Consumption
Legal Domestic Consumption
30NDL
25NDL
Actual ExciseTax revenues
Estimated Excise Tax Loss
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
FY 2016/17FY 2015/16
1,710 1,677
16686
New Zealand: Actual government revenues and estimated Excise Tax Loss
New Zealand Market Summary |
99
Australia 64 mn(+2.4%)
China24 mn
(+177.5%)
South Korea
34 mn(+143.5%)
Other / Unspecified
52 mn(+48.0%)
Other Duty-Free labelled
products55 mn(+630.7%)
Total238 mn(+74.1%)
Non-Domestic Illicit Inflows, including illicit RYO, rose by 74.1% in 2016.1 This was underpinned by a sharp rise in the volume of illicit cigarettes consumed, with illicit RYO consumption estimated to have remained broadly stable. As a consequence, illicit cigarettes accounted for 96.4% of total Illicit Consumption, up from 93.8% in 2015. The 2016 Empty Pack Survey indicates a more varied mix of Inflows of illicit cigarettes in 2016 compared with the previous year. The growth in the volume of Illicit Consumption in 2016 was underpinned by a sharp rise in Duty-Free labelled products to 55 million, up from 7 million in 2015, while illicit cigarettes intended for final retail sale in China and South Korea both more than doubled over the same period. By contrast, illicit Inflows from Australia remained relatively stable in 2016. Outflows to Australia fell from 154 million cigarettes to 90 million over the same period, while Empty Pack Surveys in other markets do not suggest substantive flows of legally sold cigarettes from New Zealand to other markets in the Asia Pacific region, consistent with large price differentials between markets.2
New Zealand: Trade Flows
Source: IT Flows Model and Oxford Economics. 1 It is recognised that illicit RYO originates from both Non-Domestic and Domestic home-grown sources; however it is not possible to separate the two, and therefore for the purposes of this Report we consider all illicit RYO volumes to be of Non-Domestic origin.
2 Note that estimated Outflows of duty-paid cigarettes are based only on identified Inflows in the other markets covered in this Report and may therefore be an underestimate.
3Including illicit RYO. Figures in brackets reflect % change from 2015.
Cigarettes mn
2015 2016
Illicit RYO 8 9Australia 63 64South Korea 14 34China 9 24Other Duty-Free labelled products 7 55Other / Unspecified 35 52
Total 137 238
Illicit RYO9 mn(+1.2%)
New Zealand: Origin of total Non-Domestic Illicit Inflows3
| New Zealand Market Summary
1010
New Zealand: Consumption breakdown 2016
Source: IT Flows Model and Oxford Economics
0
0 1,000
1,000
2,000
2,000
3,000
3,000
Cigarettes mn
Cigarettes mn
Total 2,636
Legal Domestic
Sales2,464
Legal Domestic
Consumption2,374
Australia 640
South Korea 341
Illicit RYO 90
0Other/ Unspecified 52
0China 24
24Other Duty-
Free labelled products
55Illicit Inflows
Non-Domestic Legal Inflows
Outflows of duty paid 91
New Zealand Market Summary |
1111
Source Comment
Euromonitor Passport, 2017 Euromonitor estimates an Illicit Incidence of 1.6% in 2016. The methodology, sampling, and coverage are unknown, so it is difficult to assess the robustness of this estimate.
Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) New Zealand, Update of Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products in New Zealand in 2013. Retrieved via http://www.ash.org.nz/the-evidence/we-produce/research-on-the-illicit-tobacco-market/
Analysis by ASH based on data on the import and seizure of legal and illegal tobacco in New Zealand from Customs, combined with previous literature which was used to calculate interception rates of illegal tobacco being smuggled and “home grown” in New Zealand, suggest an Illicit Incidence of between 1.8% and 3.9% in 2010-13 (including RYO).
Marshall et al. Missed tobacco tax revenue from ‘foreign’ packs in New Zealand: results from a discarded pack collection study, NZMJ 22 November 2013, Vol 126 No 1386. Retrieved via https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal/read-the-journal/all-issues/2010-2019/2013/vol-126-no-1386/lett-wilson
A total of 1,776 discarded packs were collected from 7 locations across New Zealand between November 2012 and January 2013, suggesting a Non-Domestic share in Total Consumption of 5.8%. However no attempt was made to subtract Non-Domestic Legal consumption to derive an estimate of Illicit Consumption.
New Zealand: Other estimates
New Zealand: Alternative estimates of Illicit Consumption
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40%
“Bottom up” consumption(2009)
Oxford Economics(2015)
0.6
35.7
0
5
10
15
20
25%
Vietnam Tobacco
Association(2014)
“Bottom up” consumption
(2014)
Nielsen Retail Audit (2015)
Euromonitor (2016)
OxfordEconomics
(2016)
22.220.9
17.1 18.6 18.2
0
3
6
9
12
15%
“Bottom up”consumption
(2014)
Euromonitor(2016)
OxfordEconomics
(2016)
12.0
5.63.7
0
1
2
3
4
5%
'Bottom up'consumption (2014)
Euromonitor(2016)
Oxford Economics(2016)
2.5
3.9
4.7
0
3
6
9
12
15%
“Bottom up”consumption (2014)
Euromonitor (2016)
Oxford Economics (2016)
13.111.0
5.1
0
10
20
30
40
50%
“Bottom up” consumption (2013)
Nielsen(2014)
Euromonitor(2016)
Oxford Economics(2016)
43.736.7 38.8
23.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5%
Euromonitor (2016)Oxford Economics (2016)
2.3
0.9
0
3
6
9
12
15%
Ahsan et al.(2013)
Euromonitor(2016)
Gadjah MadaUniversity
(2016)
OxfordEconomics
(2016)
12.2 12.1
8.06.9
0
2
4
6
8
10%
ASH (2013)Euromonitor(2016)
Oxford Economics(2016)
8.7
1.6
Loose Tobacco
Cigarettes
0.3
2.0
0.8
| New Zealand Market Summary
1212
New Zealand: Data Sources
Primary source Calculation Comments
Legal Domestic Sales (LDS)
Annual tobacco returns filed by manufacturers and importers with the New Zealand Ministry of Health.
— —
Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes
Empty Pack Survey data in other markets covered in this Report.
Empty Pack Survey data in other markets used to identify the presence of packs bearing New Zealand market-specific labelling (e.g. health warnings, tax stamps etc.).
Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes to other markets are estimated at around 91 million cigarettes, nearly all of which are destined for Australia.
Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC)
— Legal Domestic Sales minus Outflows of legal sales.
Outflows of duty-paid cigarettes refer only to Outflows to other markets.
Total Non-Domestic Inflows (ND)
— Sum of Non-Domestic Legal and Non-Domestic Illicit.
—
Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)
— Estimated using passenger data, smoking rates, and passenger duty-free personal import allowance.
Maximum theoretical amount an individual can carry across a border. Passenger data from Statistics New Zealand.
Non-Domestic Illicit
Empty Pack Survey and Colmar Brunton Survey.
Based on the Empty Pack Survey, Colmar Brunton data, and OE estimates.
Estimates derived from the Empty Pack Survey conducted in 2016 Q2. An estimate for loose tobacco has been added based on analysis of the Colmar Brunton Consumer Surveys (2015 and 2016). See Report methodology for more details.
Domestic Illicit — Zero under-declaration of domestically produced cigarettes.
There is assumed to be no under-declaration of domestically produced cigarettes.
Total Illicit Consumption
— Sum of Non-Domestic Illicit and Domestic Illicit.
—
Total Consumption
— Legal Domestic Sales minus Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes, plus estimated Non-Domestic Legal consumption, plus estimated Illicit Consumption.
The IT Flows Model estimate of consumption is 2.6 billion cigarettes for 2016.
Total Tax Loss — Total Illicit Consumption multiplied by the weighted average tax rates (Excise Tax and GST).
See Report methodology for more details.
New Zealand Market Summary |
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