asia illicit tobacco indicator 2017: vietnam...3 | vietnam market summary vietnam: legal domestic...

Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017: VietnamPrepared by Oxford EconomicsJuly 2018

22 | Vietnam Market Summary

DisclaimerThe Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017 Report (the “Report”) on the illicit tobacco trade in selected Asian markets (including Australia and New Zealand) has been prepared by Oxford Economics (OE). OE enjoyed academic freedom and full editorial control of the Report. We are grateful for the inputs and data received from public sector and industry stakeholders.

OE prepared the Report in accordance with specific terms of reference agreed between Philip Morris International Management SA, an affiliate of Philip Morris International (PM), and OE. Financial support for the Report was provided by PM. OE assume all responsibility for the Report analysis, findings, and conclusion. The terms of reference under which OE were engaged by Philip Morris International Management SA are detailed in the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2017 Methodological Overview Report, available to download via the following link illicittobacco.oxfordeconomics.com

http://illicittobacco.oxfordeconomics.com

33 | Vietnam Market Summary

Vietnam: Legal Domestic Sales

1 An increase in Excise Taxes implemented in January 2016 led to substantial “trade loading” in 2015. Legal Domestic Sales data has been adjusted to reflect this activity. Estimates for 2015 and 2016 have been refined in this Report compared with previous editions of the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator based on revised data. 2Price per pack of 20 of the Most Sold Brand in October 2017, based on PM data. Vietnam data are based on the price of “Craven A”, the Most Sold Brand in 2015 for urban areas. 3See https://www.customs.gov.vn/Lists/EnglishNews/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=569&Category=News%20and%20Events&language=en-US

Legal Domestic Sales:

77.2 bn cigarettes

Vietnam

Price:

VND 20,000 USD 0.88

Vietnam Legal Domestic Sales are estimated at 79.0 billion cigarettes in 2017, broadly stable in comparison with 2016.1

The government-owned Vietnam National Tobacco Corporation (Vinataba) accounted for more than 50% of cigarettes sold in Vietnam in 2017, increasing their market share in comparison with 2016. BAT accounted for a further 27% of total sales, with Imperial Tobacco retaining a 6% market share.

The price of a pack of 20 cigarettes in Vietnam rose by just over 5% in 2017 to VND 20,000 (USD 0.88). In the process, the price rose above Laos – where the price of a pack of 20 of the Most Sold Brand of cigarettes cost USD 0.84 in 2017 – while remaining above equivalent prices in Cambodia (USD 0.49) and Myanmar (USD 0.63).2

Compared with other markets in the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator, cigarette prices remained relatively low however.

In July 2017, the Ministry of Finance introduced an amendment to the legislation on customs declarations for passengers, reducing the duty-free personal import allowance to 200 cigarettes, 250 grams of loose tobacco, or 20 cigars. Previously, the allowance was 400 cigarettes, 500 grams of loose tobacco, or 100 cigars.3

https://www.customs.gov.vn/Lists/EnglishNews/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=569&Category=News%20and%20Events&la

44

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20172016201520142013201220112010

329312

284284315

277262

231

VND

per c

igar

ette

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

02017201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn

VND per pack of 20 cigarettes

VND

bn

Actual ExciseTax revenues

Estimated Excise Tax Loss

-6-4-202468

10121416

201720162015201420132012

2.8

11.512.4

3.3

11.813.5

3.6 4.3

13.5

3.9

12.3

3.5

Cigarette sales bnVND per pack of 20 cigarettes

% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

201720162015201420132012

80.077.2 76.0 75.9

19.4 22.0 23.3 23.4

76.9

22.20.6NDL 0.8

NDL

78.6

20.7

0.8NDL

0.8NDL

IllicitConsumption

Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)

Legal Domestic Consumption

Ciga

rette

s bn

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

201720162015201420132012

82.7

75.3

20.1

103.4

21.4

75.378.9

23.1 24.30.6 NDL

0.8NDL

80.8

21.3

102.9 99.1 103.9

76.9

22.2

100.097.5

0.8NDL

0.7NDL

0.7NDL

0.9NDL

0.7NDL

0.9NDL

IllicitConsumption



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20172016201520142013201220112010

329312

284284315

277262

231

VND

per c

igar

ette

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

02017201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn


VND

bn



-6-4-202468

10121416

201720162015201420132012

2.8

11.512.4

3.3

11.813.5

3.6 4.3

13.5

3.9

12.3

3.5


% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

201720162015201420132012

80.077.2 76.0 75.9

19.4 22.0 23.3 23.4

76.9

22.20.6NDL 0.8

NDL

78.6

20.7

0.8NDL

0.8NDL

IllicitConsumption



Ciga

rette

s bn

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

201720162015201420132012

82.7

75.3

20.1

103.4

21.4

75.378.9

23.1 24.30.6 NDL

0.8NDL

80.8

21.3

102.9 99.1 103.9

76.9

22.2

100.097.5

0.8NDL

0.7NDL

0.7NDL

0.9NDL

0.7NDL

0.9NDL

IllicitConsumption



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Source: Oxford Economics based on PM data 4Rate applied in October of each year to “Craven A” (the Most Sold Brand in 2015 for urban cities), including Earmarked Tax.

Source: Oxford Economics based on PM data 5Price of “Craven A” in October of each year (the Most Sold Brand in 2015 for urban cities).

Vietnam: Tobacco tax applied to cigarettes4

Vietnam: Legal Domestic Sales and prices5

Vietnam Market Summary |

55

Vietnam: Cigarette Consumption

Source: Oxford Economics1 The Empty Pack Survey was undertaken in 2017 Q4. 2014 results based on the average of the 2013 Q4 and 2015 Q4 Empty Pack Surveys. An increase in Excise Taxes implemented in January 2016 led to substantial “trade loading” in 2015. Legal Domestic Sales data has been adjusted to reflect this activity. Estimates for 2015 and 2016 have been refined in this Report compared with previous editions of the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator based on revised data. See Report methodology for more details.

2 Estimated using passenger data, Smoking Prevalence in tourists’ country/market of origin, and the passenger duty-free personal import allowance limit.

The results from an Empty Pack Survey conducted in 2017 was combined with IMS data on Legal Domestic Sales to estimate Total Consumption of cigarettes in Vietnam.1

Total Consumption (legal and illicit) is estimated at 103.9 billion cigarettes in 2017, 3.9% higher than in 2016.

Total Consumption rose to the highest level recorded since the beginning of the Asia Illicit Tobacco research programme in 2012, underpinned primarily by an increase in Illicit Consumption.

In total, Illicit Consumption rose by an estimated 9.3% in 2017 to 24.3 billion cigarettes, up from 22.2 billion in 2016. This represents an Illicit Incidence level of 23.4%.

Both the volume and incidence of Illicit Consumption in 2017 rose to the highest level recorded since the beginning of the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator research programme.

Non-Domestic Legal Inflows were estimated at nearly 740 million cigarettes in 2017, representing a decline of 14.4% in comparison with 2016.2 This fall in legal Inflows follows a revision in the duty-free personal import allowance limit implemented by the Ministry of Finance in July 2017. The impact on the estimated volume of Non-Domestic Legal Inflows was partially offset, however, by an increase of nearly one-third in inbound visitor numbers in 2017.

Vietnam: Composition of cigarette consumption2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 %

change2016-17 Cigarettes

bn % Cigarettes bn % Cigarettes

bn % Cigarettes bn % Cigarettes

bn % Cigarettes bn %

Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC) 82.7 80.0 80.8 78.6 75.3 77.2 75.3 76.0 76.9 76.9 78.9 75.9 2.6

Legal Domestic Sales (LDS) 82.8 — 81.0 — 75.5 — 75.6 — 77.1 — 79.0 — 2.5

Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes -0.1 — -0.2 — -0.2 — -0.3 — -0.1 — -0.1 — -35.4

Total Non-Domestic Inflows (ND) 20.7 20.0 22.0 21.4 22.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.1 23.1 25.0 24.1 5.9

Non-Domestic Legal (NDL) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 -14.4

Non-Domestic Illicit 20.1 19.4 21.3 20.7 21.4 22.0 23.1 23.3 22.2 22.2 24.3 23.4 9.3

Domestic Illicit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a

Total Consumption 103.4 100.0 102.9 100.0 97.5 100.0 99.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 103.9 100.0 3.9

Total Illicit Consumption 20.1 19.4 21.3 20.7 21.4 22.0 23.1 23.3 22.2 22.2 24.3 23.4 9.3

| Vietnam Market Summary

66

Source: Oxford Economics

Source: Oxford Economics

Vietnam: Composition of cigarette consumption(% of Total Consumption)

Vietnam: Composition of cigarette consumption(number of cigarettes)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20172016201520142013201220112010

329312

284284315

277262

231

VND

per c

igar

ette

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

02017201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn


VND

bn



-6-4-202468

10121416

201720162015201420132012

2.8

11.512.4

3.3

11.813.5

3.6 4.3

13.5

3.9

12.3

3.5


% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

201720162015201420132012

80.077.2 76.0 75.9

19.4 22.0 23.3 23.4

76.9

22.20.6NDL 0.8

NDL

78.6

20.7

0.8NDL

0.8NDL

IllicitConsumption



Ciga

rette

s bn

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

201720162015201420132012

82.7

75.3

20.1

103.4

21.4

75.378.9

23.1 24.30.6 NDL

0.8NDL

80.8

21.3

102.9 99.1 103.9

76.9

22.2

100.097.5

0.8NDL

0.7NDL

0.7NDL

0.9NDL

0.7NDL

0.9NDL

IllicitConsumption



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20172016201520142013201220112010

329312

284284315

277262

231

VND

per c

igar

ette

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

02017201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn


VND

bn



-6-4-202468

10121416

201720162015201420132012

2.8

11.512.4

3.3

11.813.5

3.6 4.3

13.5

3.9

12.3

3.5


% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

201720162015201420132012

80.077.2 76.0 75.9

19.4 22.0 23.3 23.4

76.9

22.20.6NDL 0.8

NDL

78.6

20.7

0.8NDL

0.8NDL

IllicitConsumption



Ciga

rette

s bn

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

201720162015201420132012

82.7

75.3

20.1

103.4

21.4

75.378.9

23.1 24.30.6 NDL

0.8NDL

80.8

21.3

102.9 99.1 103.9

76.9

22.2

100.097.5

0.8NDL

0.7NDL

0.7NDL

0.9NDL

0.7NDL

0.9NDL

IllicitConsumption



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


77

Vietnam: Government Finances

Excise Tax on cigarettes in Vietnam is structured as a single-tiered ad valorem. A fixed rate of 70% is applied to the factory price in the case of domestic cigarettes and the import price when applied to imported cigarettes.

Imported cigarettes are also subject to a Most Favoured Nation tariff rate of 135%. Excise Tax is applied on top of this.

The Excise Tax rate was raised from 65% to 70% on 1 January 2016, and is currently scheduled to be increased further to 75% on 1 January 2019.

Furthermore, the Ministry of Finance have tabled two alternative amendments to the Tax Administration Law. The first option, currently favoured by the Ministry of Finance, is to implement a mixed Excise Tax system that maintains the current ad valorem component, which is set to rise to 75% in 2019, and introduces a specific component of VND 1,000 per pack of 20 cigarettes and VND 1,500 per cigar from 1 January 2020. The second option is to retain the current ad valorem Excise Tax system, and increase the rate to 80% on 1 January 2020 and 85% on 1 January 2021.1

In addition to Excise Tax, there is a health surcharge equivalent to 1.5% of the Excise Tax base. The health surcharge is an earmarked tax providing revenues for the Fund for the Prevention and Fight against Harmful Effects of Tobacco.

VAT is also imposed at a rate of 10%.

In 2017, government revenues from Excise Taxes on cigarettes were estimated at VND 13.5 billion, rising by 1.8% in comparison with 2016.

The total Tax Loss from Illicit Consumption rose by an estimated 8.8% in 2017 to VND 5.3 billion. This was underpinned by a similar increase in the volume of estimated illicit cigarettes consumed.

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % change in local

currency2016-17

VND tn

USD mn

VND tn

USD mn

VND tn

USD mn

VND tn

USD mn

VND tn

USD mn

VND tn

USD mn

Actual revenue from excise duties on tobacco 11.5 551 12.4 594 12.3 580 12.3 567 13.3 606 13.5 605 1.8%

Estimated number of illicit cigarettes purchased (cigarettes bn)

20.1 21.3 21.4 23.1 22.2 24.3 9.3%

Estimated Tax Loss from Illicit Consumption 3.5 169 4.1 196 4.4 207 4.5 208 4.8 221 5.3 235 8.8%

Lost excise revenue 2.8 134 3.3 156 3.5 165 3.6 166 3.9 177 4.3 190 9.4%

Lost VAT tax revenue 0.7 35 0.8 40 0.9 42 0.9 43 1.0 43 1.0 45 6.4%

Excise Tax Loss as % of potential total Excise Tax revenues

19.6% 20.8% 22.1% 22.6% 22.6% 23.9%

Source: Oxford Economics based on Vietnam Tobacco Association estimates and PM dataIncludes Earmarked Taxes2014 estimates of Illicit Consumption based on the average of the 2013 Q4 and 2015 Q4 Empty Pack Surveys. See Report methodology for more details. The estimated Tax Loss presented in this Report probably underestimates the true level of Tax Loss in Vietnam, as the large majority of illicit cigarettes consumed fall into the high price market segment. 1See https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/smoke-smoking-who-wants-vietnam-to-raise-tobacco-taxes-3758011.html

Vietnam: Actual government revenues and estimated Tax Loss


https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/smoke-smoking-who-wants-vietnam-to-raise-tobacco-taxes-3758011

88

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20172016201520142013201220112010

329312

284284315

277262

231

VND

per c

igar

ette

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

02017201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn


VND

bn



-6-4-202468

10121416

201720162015201420132012

2.8

11.512.4

3.3

11.813.5

3.6 4.3

13.5

3.9

12.3

3.5


% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

201720162015201420132012

80.077.2 76.0 75.9

19.4 22.0 23.3 23.4

76.9

22.20.6NDL 0.8

NDL

78.6

20.7

0.8NDL

0.8NDL

IllicitConsumption



Ciga

rette

s bn

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

201720162015201420132012

82.7

75.3

20.1

103.4

21.4

75.378.9

23.1 24.30.6 NDL

0.8NDL

80.8

21.3

102.9 99.1 103.9

76.9

22.2

100.097.5

0.8NDL

0.7NDL

0.7NDL

0.9NDL

0.7NDL

0.9NDL

IllicitConsumption



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Vietnam: Actual government revenues and estimated Excise Tax Loss

Source: Oxford Economics based on Vietnam Tobacco Association estimates and PM data


99

Duty-Free labelled products

5,000 mn(+157.0%)

Cambodia32 mn(-93.2%)

Other140 mn(+237.1%)

Unspecified19,091 mn

(-3.3%)

Total24,263 mn

(+9.3%)

The significant majority – nearly 80% – of illicit Inflows of cigarettes in Vietnam continue to be designated as Unspecified Market Variant products.1 In total, 19.1 billion cigarettes fell into this category in 2017. This represents nearly one in five cigarettes consumed over the course of the year. The primary Unspecified Market Variant brands identified in the 2017 Empty Pack Survey were “Jet” (accounting for 70% of total Unspecified Market Variant consumption), “Hero” (16%), and “Esse” (8%). These brands were also the most popular in 2016. Despite the rise in total illicit Inflows, the volume of Unspecified Market Variant cigarettes declined by 3.3% to the lowest level recorded since the beginning of the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator research programme. However, a sharp increase in Contraband Inflows, particularly Duty Free labelled products, more than offset this decline. Indeed, Total Consumption of Contraband cigarettes more than doubled in volume in 2017.

According to WHO representatives in Vietnam, one of the main reasons for the proliferation of Illicit Consumption in Vietnam is due to considerations of taste rather than price.2 Indeed, a number of the popular Unspecified Market Variant brands fall into the premium market segment, and are largely consumed in more affluent urban areas such as Ho Chi Minh City, which accounted for nearly two-thirds of total Unspecified Market Variant consumption in 2017 (compared with a population share in the Empty Pack Survey sample of 42%). Combined with the long border with Cambodia and Laos, entrenched consumer preferences make enforcement difficult in Vietnam. Inconsistencies in the legislation with regard to the definition of illicit cigarettes has also inhibited effective enforcement in the past.3 However, in June 2017 the National Assembly passed an amendment to Articles 190 & 191 of the Vietnam Criminal Law 2015 to rectify this (effective 1 January 2018). Furthermore, from 1 August 2018, the quantity of seized illicit cigarettes, instead of the value, will be used for filing criminal prosecution and imposing penalties, which will rise to a maximum of 15 years imprisonment for the transportation and storing of more than 4,500 packs of illicit cigarettes (previously 10 years). At the same time, the standing Deputy Prime Minister Truong Hoa Binh directed the relevant agencies including border guard and public security forces to launch a crackdown on cigarettes and sugar smuggling, tighten goods inspection, and take measures to end large-scale smuggling rings in key regions.4

Vietnam: Trade Flows

Source: IT Flows Model and Oxford Economics1Unspecified Market Variant refers to cigarette packs that do not bear specific market labelling or Duty-Free labelling. As such the intended market is not known. 2See http://dtinews.vn/en/news/024/53796/who-suggests-solutions-to-cigarette-smuggling-in-vietnam.html3See https://tuoitrenews.vn/business/41089/vietnam-wrestles-with-contraband-cigarettes4See http://ven.vn/combating-tobacco-smuggling-becomes-more-difficult-28301.html5Figures in brackets reflect % change from 2016.

Cigarettes mn 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Cambodia 193 299 292 305 466 32Duty-Free labelled products 570 601 1,407 2,341 1,945 5,000Other 62 112 81 61 41 140Unspecified 19,278 20,241 19,664 20,348 19,752 19,091Counterfeit - 17 8 - - -Total 20,103 21,270 21,432 23,055 22,205 24,263

Vietnam: Origin of total Non-Domestic Illicit Inflows5


http://dtinews.vn/en/news/024/53796/who-suggests-solutions-to-cigarette-smuggling-in-vietnam.html

https://tuoitrenews.vn/business/41089/vietnam-wrestles-with-contraband-cigarettes

http://ven.vn/combating-tobacco-smuggling-becomes-more-difficult-28301.html

1010

Vietnam: Consumption breakdown 2017

Source: IT Flows Model and Oxford Economics


Cigarettes bn

Cigarettes bn

Illicit Inflows

Non-Legal Domestic Inflows

0

0

40

40

80

80

120

120

Total 103.9

Legal Domestic

Sales79.0

Legal Domestic

Consumption78.9

Outflows of duty-paid 0.1

Unspecified 19.1

Other 0.2

5.0Duty-Free

labelled products

0.7

0

0

1111

Vietnam: Other Estimates

Vietnam: Alternative estimates of Illicit Consumption

0

5

10

15

20

25

Vietnam TobaccoAssociation

(2014)

Nielsen RetailAudit

(2015)

Euromonitor(2017)

Oxford Economics(2017)

23.4

17.520.9

18.2


Source Comment

Vietnam Tobacco Association The Vietnam Tobacco Association estimates an Illicit Incidence of 18.2% in 2014 (15.5 billion cigarettes based on 2014 Legal Domestic Sales).

Vietnam Tobacco Association The Vietnam Tobacco Association estimates losses to the state budget of USD 450 million in 2016, around twice as high as Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator.

Euromonitor Passport, 2018 Euromonitor estimated an Illicit Incidence of 17.5% in 2017. The methodology, sampling, and coverage are unknown, so it is difficult to assess the robustness of this estimate.

Nielsen Retail Audit PM analysis of 2015 retail audit data suggests an Illicit Incidence of 20.9% in 2015.

1212

Vietnam: Data Sources


Primary source Calculation Comments

Legal Domestic Sales(LDS)

Total industry based on Vietnam Tobacco Association and key company breakdown based on PM estimates, adjusted to reflect loading production driven by the Excise Tax increase implemented in January 2016.

— —

Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes

Empty Pack Survey data in other markets covered in this Report.

Empty Pack Survey data in other markets used to identify the presence of packs bearing Vietnamese market-specific labelling (e.g., health warnings, tax stamps, etc.).

Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes to other markets are estimated at around 97 million cigarettes.

Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC)

— Legal Domestic Sales minus Outflows of legal sales.

Outflows of duty-paid cigarettes refer only to Outflows to other markets.

Total Non-DomesticInflows (ND)

— Sum of Non-Domestic Legal and Non-Domestic Illicit.

—


— Estimated using passenger data, smoking rates, and passenger duty-free personal import allowance.

Maximum theoretical amount an individual can carry across a border. Passenger data from the Vietnam Ministry of Culture, Sports & Tourism, UNWTO, and Oxford Economics Tourism Model.

Non-Domestic Illicit

Empty Pack Survey. Based on Empty Pack Surveys plus OE estimates. The EPS conducted in Vietnam probably over-estimates Non-Domestic Incidence as the coverage fails to capture the pattern of Inflows outside the major cities, which are likely to be much less sizable. For the purposes of this Report, and to provide a more complete representation of the market, we therefore scale down the Non-Domestic Incidence level from the EPS using supporting evidence provided by the Vietnam Tobacco Association.

Estimate derived from the 2017 Q4 Empty Pack Survey. Vietnam is a large market for illicit imports. A significant share is classified as Non-Domestic with Unspecified Market Variant. See Report methodology for more details.

Domestic Illicit — Zero under-declaration of domestically produced cigarettes.

There is assumed to be no under-declaration of domestically produced cigarettes.

Total Illicit Consumption

— Sum of Non-Domestic Illicit and Domestic Illicit.

—

Total Consumption

— Legal Domestic Sales minus Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes, plus estimated Non-Domestic Legal consumption, plus estimated Illicit Consumption.

The IT Flows Model estimate of consumption is 103.9 billion cigarettes for 2017.

Total Tax Loss — Total Illicit Consumption multiplied by the weighted average tax rates (Excise Tax, GST, and Earmarked Taxes).

See Report methodology for more details.

1313

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