asia-pacific development journal vol.20, n°1, june 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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\f`. >2, Df. 7, Kude >27?
HD YMH_ H__UE;
Yme eofdfaho hapgot fl dew rejhfdg` trgihdj
ieve`fpaedts hd tme E_OGR rejhfd
Iydgahos hd muagd ieve`fpaedt;
pgrthg` afnh`hty gdi kuap
Agtomhdj resfuroes whtm ieagdi;
g l`gwei strgtejy6
Rerpetugthdj tme j`fng` ihvhshfd fl `gnfur;
ieledshve lree trgie gdi ieve`fpaedt
hd tme tmhri wfr`i
Lhdgdohdj yfudj gdi e`ier`y iepediedts;
tme ogse fl Hdihgd pun`ho pf`hoy
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Yme seoretgrhgt fl tme Eofdfaho gdi _fohg` Ofaahsshfd lfr Gshg gditme Rgohlho (E_OGR) hs tme rejhfdg` ieve`fpaedt gra fl tme Udhtei Dgthfdsgdi serves gs tme aghd eofdfaho gdi sfohg` ieve`fpaedt oedtre lfr tmeUdhtei Dgthfds hd Gshg gdi tme Rgohlho. Hts agdigte hs tf lfster offpergthfdgafdj hts 5? aeaners gdi 8 gssfohgte aeaners. Ht prfvhies tme strgtejho`hdc netweed j`fng` gdi ofudtry-`eve` prfjrgaaes gdi hssues. Ht suppfrts
Jfverdaedts fl ofudtrhes hd tme rejhfd hd ofdsf`higthdj rejhfdg` pfshthfdsgdi givfogtes rejhfdg` gpprfgomes tf aeethdj tme rejhfds udhquesfohfeofdfaho omg``edjes hd g j`fng`hzhdj wfr`i. Yme E_OGR seoretgrhgths hd Ngdjcfc. R`egse vhsht tme E_OGR wenshte gt 0www.udesogp.frj4 lfrlurtmer hdlfragthfd.
Yme smgiei gregs fl tme agp hdihogte E_OGR aeaners gdi gssfohgte aeaners.
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Gshg-Rgohlho Ieve`fpaedt Kfurdg` \f`. >2, Df. 7, Kude >27?
hDew Xfrc, >27?
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Gshg-Rgohlho Ieve`fpaedt Kfurdg` \f`. >2, Df. 7, Kude >27?
hh
Ymhs pun`hogthfd agy ne reprfiuoei hd wmf`e fr hd pgrt lfr eiuogthfdg` fr dfd-prflht purpfseswhtmfut speohg` perahsshfd lrfa tme ofpyrhjmt mf`ier, prfvhiei tmgt tme sfuroe hs gocdfw`eijei.Yme E_OGR Run`hogthfds Fllhoe wfu`i gppreohgte reoehvhdj g ofpy fl gdy pun`hogthfd tmgt uses tmhspun`hogthfd gs g sfuroe.
Df use agy ne agie fl tmhs pun`hogthfd lfr resg`e fr gdy ftmer ofaaerohg` purpfse wmgtsfeverwhtmfut prhfr perahsshfd. Gpp`hogthfds lfr suom perahsshfd, whtm g stgteaedt fl tme purpfse gdiextedt fl reprfiuothfd, smfu`i ne giiressei tf tme _eoretgry fl tme Run`hogthfds Nfgri, UdhteiDgthfds, Dew Xfrc.
G_HG-RGOHLHO
IE\E@FRAEDY
KFU^DG@
\f`. >2, Df. 7, Kude >27?
Udhtei Dgthfds pun`hogthfd_g`es Df. E.7?.HH.L.27?G`` rhjmts reserveiAgdulgoturei hd Ymgh`gdiH_ND; 8:=-8>-7-7>22-7>9
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Gshg-Rgohlho Ieve`fpaedt Kfurdg` \f`. >2, Df. 7, Kude >27?
hhh
Givhsfry Nfgri
Aeaners
Ir. XH@AG[ GCX[Omhel Eofdfahst, _futm Oedtre (lfraer Ihreotfr gdi Omhel Eofdfahst,UDOYGI), _whtzer`gdi
Ir. ^G_MHI GAKGI\hoe-Omgdoe``fr, Rgchstgd Hdsthtute fl Ieve`fpaedt Eofdfahos (RHIE),Rgchstgd
Ir. AX^DG GU_Y^HG\hoe-Omgdoe``fr lfr Gogieahos, Ie @g _g``e Udhvershty, Rmh`hpphdes
R^FLE__F^ ^GKE_M OMGDI^G\hoe-Omgdoe``fr gdi Rreshiedt, Udhvershty fl tme _futm Rgohlho, Lhkh
R^FLE__F^ YGCGYF_MH HYFRrflessfr, Jrgiugte _omff` fl Eofdfahos gdi Jrgiugte _omff`fl Run`ho Rf`hoy, Udhvershty fl Yfcyf, Kgpgd
Ir. AU^GY CG^HA_GCF\Omghragd fl tme Exeouthve Nfiy fl tme Eurgshgd Eofdfaho O`unfl _ohedthsts, Cgzgcmstgd
Ir. _GAGD CE@EJGAGExeouthve Ihreotfr, Hdsthtute fl Rf`hoy _tuihes, _rh @gdcg
R^FLE__F^ IEERGC DGXXG^Kgwgmgr`g` Demru Udhvershty (lfraer Omhel Eofdfaho Givhsertf tme Jfverdaedt fl Hdihg), Hdihg
R^FLE__F^ ^EMAGD _FNMGDOmghragd, Oedtre lfr Rf`hoy Ihg`fjue, Ngdj`giesm
Ir. OMG@FDJRMFN _U__GDJCG^DIhsthdjuhsmei Le``fw, Ymgh`gdi Ieve`fpaedt ^esegrom Hdsthtute,Ymgh`gdi
R^FLE__F^ XU XFDJIHDJOmhdese Gogieay fl _fohg` _ohedoes, Omhdg
Eihtfrs
Omhel EihtfrIr. Gdhsuzzgagd OmfwimuryIhreotfr, Agorfeofdfaho Rf`hoy gdi Ieve`fpaedt Ihvhshfd
Agdgjhdj Eihtfr
Ir. Gydu` MgsgdOmhel, Ieve`fpaedt Rf`hoy _eothfdAgorfeofdfaho Rf`hoy gdi Ieve`fpaedt Ihvhshfd
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hv
Eihtfrhg` stgteaedt
Yme Gshg-Rgohlho Ieve`fpaedt Kfurdg` hs pun`hsmei twhoe g yegr ny tmeEofdfaho gdi _fohg` Ofaahsshfd lfr Gshg gdi tme Rgohlho.
Hts prhagry fnkeothve hs tf prfvhie g aeihua lfr tme exomgdje fl cdfw`eije,experhedoe, hiegs, hdlfragthfd gdi igtg fd g`` gspeots fl eofdfaho gdi sfohg`ieve`fpaedt hd tme Gshgd gdi Rgohlho rejhfd. Yme eapmgshs fl tme Kfurdg` hs fd tmepun`hogthfd fl eaphrhog``y ngsei, pf`hoy-frhedtei grtho`es hd tme gregs fl pfvertyg``evhgthfd, eaerjhdj sfohg` hssues gdi agdgjhdj j`fng`hzgthfd.
Frhjhdg` grtho`es gdg`yshdj hssues gdi prfn`eas re`evgdt tf tme rejhfd lrfa tmegnfve perspeothve gre we`ofaei lfr pun`hogthfd hd tmeKfurdg`. Yme grtho`es smfu`i mgveg strfdj eapmgshs fd tme pf`hoy hap`hogthfds l`fwhdj lrfa tme gdg`yshs. Gdg`ythog` nffcrevhews wh`` g`sf ne ofdshierei lfr pun`hogthfd.
Agdusorhpts smfu`i ne sedt tf;
Omhel EihtfrGshg-Rgohlho Ieve`fpaedt Kfurdg`
Agorfeofdfaho Rf`hoy gdi Ieve`fpaedt Ihvhshfd
E_OGR, Udhtei Dgthfds Nuh`ihdj^gkgigaderd Dfc GvedueNgdjcfc 72>22Ymgh`gdiLgx; >==-?22: fr >==-7222E-agh`; esogp-apiiBud.frj
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Gshg-Rgohlho Ieve`fpaedt Kfurdg` \f`. >2, Df. 7, Kude >27?
v
G_HG-RGOHLHO IE\E@FRAEDY KFU^DG@
\f`. >2, Df. 7, Kude >27?
OFDYEDY_
Rgje
Kfmd Jh`nert Yme eofdfaho hapgot fl dew rejhfdg` 7trgihdj ieve`fpaedts hd tme E_OGR rejhfd
Gtgdu _edjuptg gdi Iydgahos hd muagd ieve`fpaedt; ??
Gnmhkht Jmfsm pgrthg` afnh`hty gdi kuapGsmlgq Gmagi Cmgd gdi Agtomhdj resfuroes whtm ieagdi;
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Gshg-Rgohlho Ieve`fpaedt Kfurdg` \f`. >2, Df. 7, Kude >27?
vh
Exp`gdgtfry dftes
^eleredoes tf if``grs ($) gre tf Udhtei _tgtes if``grs, ud`ess ftmerwhse stgtei.
^eleredoes tf tfds gre tf aetrho tfds, ud`ess ftmerwhse speohlhei.
G sf`hius (/) netweed igtes (e.j. 78=2/=7) hdihogtes g lhdgdohg` yegr, g orfp yegr fr gdgogieaho yegr.
Use fl g mypmed netweed igtes (e.j. 78=2-78=5) hdihogtes tme lu`` perhfi hdvf`vei,hdo`uihdj tme nejhddhdj gdi edi yegrs.
Yme lf``fwhdj syanf`s mgve need usei hd tme tgn`es tmrfujmfut tme kfurdg`;
Ywf ifts (..) hdihogte tmgt igtg gre dft gvgh`gn`e fr gre dft sepgrgte`y repfrtei.
Gd ea-igsm () hdihogtes tmgt tme gafudt hs dh` fr dej`hjhn`e.
G mypmed (-) hdihogtes tmgt tme htea hs dft gpp`hogn`e.
G pfhdt (.) hs usei tf hdihogte ieohag`s.
G spgoe hs usei tf ihsthdjuhsm tmfusgdis gdi ah``hfds.Yftg`s agy dft gii preohse`y neoguse fl rfudihdj.
Yme ieshjdgthfds eap`fyei gdi tme presedtgthfd fl tme agterhg` hd tmhs pun`hogthfd ifdft hap`y tme expresshfd fl gdy fphdhfd wmgtsfever fd tme pgrt fl tme _eoretgrhgt fl tmeUdhtei Dgthfds ofdoerdhdj tme `ejg` stgtus fl gdy ofudtry, terrhtfry, ohty fr greg fr fl htsgutmfrhthes, fr ofdoerdhdj tme ie`hahtgthfd fl hts lrfdthers fr nfudigrhes.
Zmere tme ieshjdgthfd ofudtry fr greg gppegrs, ht ofvers ofudtrhes, terrhtfrhes, ohthes
fr gregs.
Nhn`hfjrgpmhog` gdi ftmer releredoes mgve, wmerever pfsshn`e, need verhlhei. Yme UdhteiDgthfds negrs df respfdshnh`hty lfr tme gvgh`gnh`hty fr ludothfdhdj fl U^@s ne`fdjhdj tffutshie edththes.
Yme fphdhfds, lhjures gdi esthagtes set lfrtm hd tmhs pun`hogthfd gre tme respfdshnh`hty fltme gutmfrs gdi smfu`i dft deoessgrh`y ne ofdshierei gs rel`eothdj tme vhews fr ogrryhdjtme edifrseaedt fl tme Udhtei Dgthfds. Aedthfd fl lhra dgaes gdi ofaaerohg`prfiuots ifes dft hap`y tme edifrseaedt fl tme Udhtei Dgthfds.
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YME EOFDFAHO HARGOY FL DEZ ^EJHFDG@ Y^GIHDJ
IE\E@FRAEDY_ HD YME E_OGR ^EJHFD7
Kfmd Jh`nert*
Hd tmhs pgper tme resu`ts fl g duaner fl duaerhog` shau`gthfds fl pfsshn`e
trgie `hnerg`hzgthfd soedgrhfs hd tme E_OGR rejhfd gre presedtei. Yme
soedgrhfs ofdshierei hdo`uie; expgdshfd fl exhsthdj trgie n`fos tfedofapgss dew aeaners3 ofdsf`higthfd gdi ieepedhdj fl exhsthdj trgie
gjreeaedts3 gdi g rejhfd-whie lree trgie greg. Yme shau`gthfds were
ofdiuotei ushdj tme afie` fl tme J`fng` Yrgie Gdg`yshs Rrfkeot (JYGR)
gdi were ngsei fd g prfkeothfd fl tme igtgngse tf >272.
KE@ O`gsshlhogthfd; O227, gdi afre reoedt`y Ahcho, >22:). Yme gromhteoture tmgt wh``eaerje hd tmhs dew edvhrfdaedt reaghds udoertghd, g`tmfujm severg` tediedohes gre
ihsoerdhn`e (_of``gy gdi Jh`nert, >272). Yme tredi tmgt mgs prfjressei afst rgphi`ymgs need tme prf`hlergthfd fl sag``, nh`gterg` lree trgie gjreeaedts, g tredi gnfutwmhom Aedfd (>228) mgs need orhthog`. Goofrihdj tf _of``gy gdi Jh`nert (>272), shdoe>222 sfae ?2 nh`gterg` lree trgie gjreeaedts (LYGs) mgve need ofdo`uiei gafdjGshg-Rgohlho eofdfahes, whtm severg` ftmers nehdj udier dejfthgthfd lfr sfae thae
* Rrflessfr, Iepgrtaedt fl Eofdfahos gdi Lhdgdoe, Kfd A. Mudtsagd _omff` fl Nushdess, Utgm _tgte
Udhvershty, ?5>-?5?793
lgx; 9?5-:8:->:273 e-agh`; kjh`nertBusu.eiu).
7 Yme shau`gthfds presedtei hd tmhs pgper were frhjhdg``y prepgrei gs ngocjrfudi lfr tme E_OGRrepfrt, edtht`ei Jrfwhdj Yfjetmer; Eofdfaho Hdtejrgthfd lfr gd Hdo`ushve gdi _ustghdgn`e Gshg-Rgohlho
Eofdfay. Yme gutmfr wfu`i `hce tf tmgdc G`nertf Hsjut, Dgjesm Cuagr gdi Ahg Ahcho lfr very me`plu`
ofaaedts fd tme egr`her irglts fl tme pgper, gdi g`sf tf express mhs jrgthtuie tf G`nert Hsjut lfr chdi`y
mgvhdj ofaph`ei gdi lurdhsmei tme trgie ofst igtg usei hd g duaner fl tme shau`gthfds.
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>
gdi sth`` ftmers gt tme stgje fl pre`hahdgry stuiy. Gshg-Rgohlho eofdfahes mgve g`sfneed gothve`y dejfthgthdj LYGs whtm pgrtders futshie tme Gshg-Rgohlho rejhfd.
Ymere mgs g`sf need g tredi tfwgris ofdsf`higthdj gdi expgdihdj exhsthdjgjreeaedts hd tme rejhfd. Yme afst dftgn`e ieve`fpaedts hd tmhs rejgri gre tmeG_EGD+? gjreeaedt, wmhom wfu`i nrhdj tfjetmer tme eofdfahes fl tme Gssfohgthfdfl _futmegst Gshgd Dgthfds (G_EGD) g`fdj whtm Omhdg, Kgpgd gdi tme ^epun`ho flCfreg, gdi tme pfsshn`e expgdshfd fl tme gjreeaedt tf G_EGD+< (hdtrfiuohdjGustrg`hg, Hdihg gdi Dew [eg`gdi) fr ftmer stgtes gs we``. Gdftmer pfsshnh`hty hsg rejhfd-whie gjreeaedt. _of``gy gdi Jh`nert (>272) ihsoussei pfsshn`e afig`hthes hdafre ietgh`, gdi E_OGR (>27>) prfvhiei g ofapremedshve fvervhew fl tme vgrhfus
hssues surrfudihdj eofdfaho hdtejrgthfd hd tme Gshg-Rgohlho rejhfd.
Yme purpfse fl tmhs pgper hs tf use ofaputgn`e jederg` equh`hnrhua (OJE)afie``hdj teomdhques tf jghd hdshjmts hdtf tme pfsshn`e eofdfaho hap`hogthfds fl tmesepftedthg` rejhfdg` trgie ieve`fpaedts. Hd tme pgper tme JYGR afie` hs usei tfgdg`yse g tftg` fl seved ihlleredt trgie `hnerg`hzgthfd soedgrhfs, udier g vgrhety flihlleredt gssuapthfds. Hd tme lhrst set ofdshiergthfd hs jhved tf tme hap`hogthfds flexpgdihdj fde fl tme ourredt trgie gjreeaedts (G_EGD) tf hdo`uie ftmer ofudtrhes hdtme rejhfd, tmrfujm G_EGD+?, gdi tmed G_EGD+
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preleredthg` relfra, eved fd gd E_OGR-whie sog`e, sujjesthdj tmgt extrgrejhfdg` trgiereaghds vhtg``y hapfrtgdt gdi smfu`i ne pursuei ofdourredt whtm hdtrgrejhfdg` trgie
dejfthgthfds.
Yme struoture fl tme pgper hs gs lf``fws. _eothfd HH ofdtghds g ihsousshfd fltme aetmfif`fjy gifptei, hdo`uihdj nrhel dftes fd OJE gdg`yshs, tme JYGR afie`gdi igtgngse, gdi tme experhaedtg` ieshjd. G`sf ihsoussei hs tme aetmfi lfrprfkeothdj tme JYGR igtgngse lrfa hts >229 ngse yegr tf >272, gdi g nrhelgssessaedt fl tme vergohty fl tme prfkeothfd. _eothfd HHH ofdtghds g ihsousshfd fl tmeaghd resu`ts fl tme shau`gthfds. Ofdo`uihdj ofaaedts, hdo`uihdj dftes fd tme`hahtgthfds fl tme stuiy gdi pftedthg` luture ihreothfds, lf``fw.
HH. _HAU@GYHFD AEYMFIF@FJX
Yme hieg nemhdi OJE hs tf prfjrga g `grje-sog`e agtmeagthog` systearepresedthdj (hd tmhs ogse) tme j`fng` eofdfay gdi tf ofanhde tmgt tmefrethog` systeawhtm g nedomagrc set fl reg` wfr`i igtg represedthdj tme stgtus quf. Yme equh`hnrhuahs tmed perturnei tf jedergte hdshjmts hdtf tme ihreothfd gdi agjdhtuie fl tmeeofdfaho elleots fl pf`hoy hdtervedthfds gdi/fr ftmer omgdjes hd tme eofdfaho
systea.
OJE teomdhques ihller lrfa ftmer aetmfis fl gdg`yshs fl trgie pf`hoy (e.j.jrgvhty gdg`yshs fr pgrthg` equh`hnrhua shau`gthfd) gdi lrfa agorfeofdfaho lfreogsthdjafie`s hd tmgt tmey gre usei tf try tf exp`hoht`y goofudt lfr tme nemgvhfur fl tme edthresystea gt g ihsgjjrejgte `eve`, gtteapthdj tf ogpture g`` tme re`evgdt hdterofddeothfdsnetweed agrcets. Yme teomdhque hs pgrthou`gr`y we``-suhtei tf gdg`yshdj omgdjes hdeofdfaho pf`hoy tmgt gre `grje edfujm tf mgve gd hapgot fd tme fverg`` eofdfahosystea gdi/fr spregi fver au`thp`e seotfrs/rejhfds. Jhved tme agjdhtuie fl tme
omgdjes hd tme hdterdgthfdg` trgie edvhrfdaedt tmgt gre `hce`y tf foour hd tme E_OGRrejhfd gdi tmehr nrfgi rejhfdg` gdi seotfrg` ofvergje, OJE gdg`yshs hs tmus gdgpprfprhgte aetmfif`fjhog` omfhoe.
Jh`nert gdi Zgm` (>22>) prfvhiei g nrhel fvervhew fl tme teomdhque, gs we`` gsg survey fl duaerfus gpp`hogthfds. G afre ofapremedshve hdtrfiuothfd tf OJE
aetmfis wgs ofdiuotei ny Jh`nert gdi Yfwer (>27?). ^eoedt surveys fl gpp`hogthfdshdo`uie _of``gy gdi Jh`nert (>222), ^fnhdsfd gdi Ymherle`ier (>22>) gdi @`fyi gdiAgo@gred (>229). ^eoedt OJE pgpers ieg`hdj whtm ieve`fpaedts hd tme Gshg-Rgohlho
rejhfd hdo`uie Nrffcs, ^f`gdi-Mf`st gdi [mgh (>225), _trutt gdi Ahcho (>228),Gdiersfd gdi _trutt (>277) gdi Jh`nert (>27?).
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Afie` gdi ngse igtg
Yme shau`gthfds presedtei hd tmhs pgper were rud ushdj tme JYGR afie`(Merte`, 788:). Ymhs pgrthou`gr OJE afie` mgs neofae very whie`y usei fver tme `gstieogie (see tme surveys `hstei gnfve), gdi represedts g nedomagrc afie` fl sfrts.Yme struoture fl tme afie` hs g stgdigri, au`threjhfd OJE, ihsoussei hd ietgh` hdMerte` (788:). Jhved tmgt tme struoture fl tmhs afie` hs whie`y cdfwd gdi lghr`ystgdigri, g ietgh`ei iesorhpthfd mgs need ihspedsei whtm.
Yme igtgngse usei hd tme shau`gthfds wgs JYGR:.7, wmhom mgs g ngse yegrfl >229.>_hdoe wfrchdj whtm tme lu`` JYGR igtg hs very ofaputgthfdg``y expedshve, lfr
tme shau`gthfds repfrtei hd tmhs tme pgper tme igtg were gjjrejgtei tf ?5 rejhfds gdi75 seotfrs.?Fd tme rejhfdg` shie tme prhagry fnkeothve wgs tf hiedthly hdihvhiug``y tmeaeaner eofdfahes fl E_OGR wmerever pfsshn`e. Yme reaghdhdj ofudtrhes/rejhfdswere omfsed tf ng`gdoe tme dgturg` jefjrgpmho/eofdfaho nregcifwds, wmh`elgotfrhdj hd tme agkfr trgihdj pgrtders gdi tme requhreaedts fl tme trgie pf`hoysoedgrhfs. Yme seotfrg` gjjrejgthfd wgs shah`gr`y g ofaprfahse fl dgturg`gjjrejgthfd gorfss shah`gr ogtejfrhes gdi tme agkfr expfrt ogtejfrhes fl tme E_OGReofdfahes.
Upigte tf >272
Jhved tmgt tme hdhthg` igtgngse yegr fl >229 hs sfaewmgt igtei, tme lhrst stepwgs tf prfkeot tme igtgngse tf g afre reoedt yegr. Yme gutmfr upigtei tme JYGRigtgngse tf >272 vhg g jrfwtm prfkeothfd. Yme aetmfif`fjy hs shah`gr tf tmgt gifpteihd Jh`nert (>27?) gdi _trutt gdi Gdiersfd (>277).
Hd g OJE afie` suom gs JYGR, jrfwtm fl futput hs irhved ny omgdjes hdprfiuothvhty, tme ogphtg` stfoc gdi ftmer resfuroes, tme shze fl tme `gnfur lfroe gdi
(hd tme ogse fl JYGR, wmhom sp`hts sch``ei gdi udsch``ei `gnfur) omgdjes hd tmeofapfshthfd fl tme `gnfur lfroe. Medoe, ht hs deoessgry tf ieve`fp ngse`hde prfkeothfdsoedgrhfs lfr egom fl tmese lgotfrs hd giihthfd tf prfkeothfds fl omgdjes hdpfpu`gthfds wmhom glleot tme ieagdi shie fl tme afie`. Afrefver, tgrhlls gdi ftmertrgie pf`hohes agy mgve omgdjei shjdhlhogdt`y fver tme perhfi >229->272, gdi hieg``ytmgt smfu`i ne tgced hdtf goofudt. Medoe, hd tmhs pgper, hd ofdtrgst tf tme wfrc fl
> Zmh`e JYGR:.7 mgs tme sgae ngse yegr gs JYGR:, ht mgs haprfvei hdput-futput igtg lfr g duaner fl
eofdfahes hapfrtgdt lfr tmhs stuiy, hdo`uihdj Omhdg gdi \het Dga, gs we`` gs tme Eurfpegd Udhfd.
_unsequedt tf tme ofap`ethfd fl tmhs stuiy, JYGR= neogae gvgh`gn`e, whtm g ngse yegr fl >22:.? _ee tme tgn`es lfr tme rejhfdg` gjjrejgthfd. Lfr seotfrs, prhagry orfps, prhagry gdhag` ngsei, lfrestry
gdi lhsmerhes, ahdhdj gdi qugrryhdj, fh` gdi jgs, lffi prfiuots, texth`es, wffi prfiuots, omeahog`s,
aetg`s, lgnrhogtei aetg` prfiuots, aftfr vemho`es, e`eotrfdhos, agomhdery gdi servhoes mgve need
hiedthlhei.
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Jh`nert (>27?) gdi _trutt gdi Gdiersfd (>277), tgrhll rgtes mgve g`sf need gikustei tftme afst reoedt`y gvgh`gn`e igtg. Yme edi resu`t fl tmhs prfoess hs g prfkeotei
equh`hnrhua lfr tme j`fng` eofdfay gs gt >272 tmgt lhts tme nrfgi agorfeofdfahoigtg, hdo`uihdj gjjrejgte trgie, gdi rel`eots tme ourredt tgrhll rgtes.
Yme ngsho gssuapthfds fl tme upigte tf >272 gre presedtei hd tgn`e 7. Ymeigtg lfr pfpu`gthfd jrfwtm were fntghdei lrfa tme igtgngse fl tme Zfr`i Rfpu`gthfdRrfspeots; Yme >272 ^evhshfd,9 wmhom were agppei fdtf tme gutmfrs igtgset, whtmtme gotug` gddug` pfpu`gthfd jrfwtm rgtes usei lfr tme perhfi >229->228 extrgoteilrfa tme @gnfrstg igtgngse fl tme Hdterdgthfdg` @gnfur Frjgdhzgthfd (H@F). Ymeprhagry sfuroe fl hdlfragthfd fd omgdjes hd tme shze fl tme fverg`` `gnfur lfroe hs
tme H@F @gnfrstg igtgngse. Yme gvergje gddug` jrfwtm rgte hs gnfut 7.< per oedt fvertme shau`gthfd perhfi. Jrfwtm rgtes gre mhjmer lfr ieve`fphdj eofdfahes, gvergjhdjgnfut > per oedt.
^eoedt igtg ny Ngrrf gdi @ee (>272) wfu`i sujjest tmgt tmere mgs needshjdhlhogdt jrfwtm hd tme gvgh`gnh`hty fl sch``ei `gnfur (ielhdei gs mgvhdj ofap`eteiterthgry eiuogthfd) hd agdy fl tme ofudtrhes fl hdterest fver tme `gst ieogie.5
Goofrihdj`y, tme gutmfr sp`ht tme goouau`gthfd fl `gnfur hdtf sch``ei gdi udsch``eiofapfdedts ushdj tme omgdjes hd tme Ngrrf gdi @ee (>272) igtgngse, wmhom gjghd
were agtomei tf tme gutmfrs gjjrejgthfd.
Igtg fd lgotfr prfiuothvhty omgdjes gre dft whie`y gvgh`gn`e3 medoe,g stgdigri gpprfgom wgs lf``fwei gdi tme ouau`gthve omgdjes hd tftg` lgotfrprfiuothvhty (YLR) were og`ou`gtei reshiug``y ushdj jrfss ifaestho prfiuot (JIR)prfkeothfds. Yme gvergje reg` JIR jrfwtm fver tme perhfi >229->272 wgsgpprfxhagte`y 9.? per oedt (5.9 lfr ieve`fphdj eofdfahes, >.: lfr ieve`fpei,hdo`uihdj tme ^epun`ho fl Cfreg), whtm g mhjm fl 77.> lfr Omhdg gdi g `fw fl 2.9 lfrKgpgd. Yme lhttei gjjrejgte YLR vg`ues lrfa tme prfkeothfd gre repfrtei hd tme tgn`e 7
gs g ofdshstedoy omeoc. Ymese gre ouau`gthve lrfa >229 tf >272. Yme gvergje gddug`jrfwtm rgtes hd prfiuothvhty hap`hei ny tmese esthagtes jederg``y lg`` hdtf tme rgdje 2.9tf > per oedt, whtm fd`y Hdihg nehdj s`hjmt`y mhjmer tmgd > per oedt gdi afst fl tmeieve`fphdj eofdfahes s`hjmt`y ne`fw 7 per oedt. Yme gvergje rgte fl gjjrejgte YLRjrfwtm wgs 2.: per oedt fver tme perhfi >229->272, g `htt`e `fw nut rel`eothdj tmere`gthve`y pffr eofdfaho perlfragdoe fl agdy ieve`fpei eofdfahes fver tme `gstlew yegrs fl tme ieogie.
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per oedt rgdje (see Iuvg` gdi ie `g Aghsfddeuve, >228)3 medoe, tme esthagtesseea quhte p`gushn`e, hl fd tme ofdservgthve shie.
Ygn`e 7. Jrfwtm gssuapthfds lfr prfkeothfd fl peroedtgje omgdje tf >272
Ofudtry fr greg Rfpu`gthfd@gnfur lfroe jrfwtm
JIRGjjrejgte Ogphtg`
Udsch``ei _ch``ei YLR jrfwtm
Gustrg`hg 7.2 7=.? 7.9 7:.:
Dew [eg`gdi 5.8 :.8 >9.> =.9 -2.: :.>
Rgohlho hs`gdis 7?.? 77.7 2.9 >?.7
Omhdg ?.8 ?.? 57.: =8.7 8.> 9.: 8.8 >=.9 >.: ?7.>
Kgpgd -2.? -9.= 8.< >.5 2.5 >..9 9.2 7>.> >9.8 ?.5 >9.7
^est fl Egst Gshg ?.7 5.= 5?.? 98.? 9.5 95.2
Oganfihg 72.? 7:.= 9:.5 57.5 :.: ??.>
Hdifdeshg :.9 7>.2 ?2.8 ?8.? =.?
Rmh`hpphdes 77.< 72.< 7=.< ?>.= 9.8 > 78.? >5.8 9
Ymgh`gdi 9.9 >.? 57.2 >9.? >.7 >2.:
\het Dga :.> 7>.< .8 5.= 75.=
_rh @gdcg 5.9 >.= 7>.> 9?.9 =.9 92.5
^est fl _futm Gshg 7:.7 >?.> 78.> 5=.2 72.: 97.8
Cgzgcmstgd 9.9 9.5 95.:
^usshgd Leiergthfd ->.9 >.5 ->.7 >5.= 5.7 >5.=
^est fl Oedtrg` Gshg :.5 >>.?
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Neoguse fl g tediedoy lfr JYGR tf s`hjmt`y udierpreihot tme jrfwtm hd wfr`itrgie fver tme shau`gthfd perhfi dftei hd Jh`nert (>27?), g reiuothfd hd trgdspfrtgthfdofsts (systea whie) wgs g`sf hap`eaedtei tf agtom tme omgdjes hd gjjrejgte j`fng`
expfrts (tme smfoc wgs gd haprfveaedt hd prfiuothvhty hd tme frier fl 72 per oedt).
Gs whtm `gnfur lfroe, teomdf`fjy gdi pfpu`gthfd omgdjes, jrfwtm hd tmeogphtg` stfoc ogd ne hapfsei ihreot`y hd g prfkeothfd soedgrhf. Lrfa g jrfwtm tmefryperspeothve, mfwever, teomdf`fjhog` givgdoes gdi pfpu`gthfd jrfwtm gre usug``yrejgriei gs exfjedfus, gdi tme jrfwtm fl tme ogphtg` stfoc hs edifjedfus. Hdieei, hdofapgrgthve stgtho shau`gthfds fl `fdj-rud soedgrhfs whtm OJE afie`s ht hs ofaafdtf hapfse g stegiy-stgte o`fsure wmereny tme reg` returd tf ogphtg` hs lhxei gdi tmesupp`y fl ogphtg` hs edifjedfus`y ieterahdei hd respfdse tf ftmer omgdjes hd tme
eofdfaho systea, wmh`e hd reourshve iydgaho shau`gthfds tme ogphtg` stfoc hd usug``yieterahdei ny gd hdvestaedt/iepreohgthfd ru`e.:
Yme stegiy-stgte ofdvedthfd mgs need usei hd tme gdg`yshs. Yme jrfwtm rgtehd tme ogphtg` stfoc hs tmerelfre ieterahdei whtmhd tme prfkeothfd shau`gthfd gdirepfrtei hd tgn`e 7 gs g ofdshstedoy omeoc. Yme rgthf fl tme ourredt goofudt ng`gdoetf JIR hs lhxei, gdi ogphtg` hs dft lree tf afve gorfss ofudtrhes. Fver tme perhfi>229->272, tme prfkeotei gvergje gddug` jrfwtm rgte hd tme ogphtg` stfoc hs gnfut?.? per oedt. Gs whtm YLR, goouau`gthfd rgtes gre sfaewmgt lgster hd ieve`fphdj
eofdfahes (?.8 per oedt) tmgd ieve`fpei eofdfahes (>.5 per oedt). G`sf gs whtm YLR,
Hrgd (Hs`gaho epun`ho fl) :.? 8.8 5?.8 >.7 78.5
Yurcey :.= 9.8 ?9.2 >5.9 ?.? >>.=
Udhtei _tgtes 5.8 : >.: ?.= 7?.= :.7 2.2
^est fl wfr`i 77.7 79.? >8.2 >9.7 >.7 >2.27?/27/hdiex.mta3 Hdterdgthfdg` @gnfur Frjgdhzgthfd, @gnfrstg igtgngse. Gvgh`gn`e lrfamttp;//`gnfrstg.h`f.frj/3 Udhtei Dgthfds, Iepgrtaedt fl Eofdfaho gdi _fohg` Gllghrs, Zfr`i Rfpu`gthfd
Rrfspeots igtgngse. Gvgh`gn`e lrfa mttp;//esg.ud.frj/wpp/3 gdi Ngrrf gdi @ee (>272).
Dfte; Jrfwtm rgtes gre ouau`gthve lrfa >229 tf >272. Rgohlho hs`gdis relers tf g`` ofudtrhes hd Foegdhg exoept
Gustrg`hg gdi Dew [eg`gdi. EU->: relers tf tme >: ourredt aeaners fl tme Eurfpegd Udhfd.
Ygn`e 7. (ofdthduei)
Ofudtry fr greg Rfpu`gthfd @gnfur lfroe jrfwtm JIR Gjjrejgte Ogphtg`Udsch``ei _ch``ei YLR jrfwtm
: _ee Mgrrhsfd, ^utmerlfri gdi Ygrr (788:) lfr lurtmer ietgh`s.
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=
tme prfkeothfds lfr ogphtg` goouau`gthfd gre hd g very p`gushn`e rgdje. Ushdj g shap`eperpetug` hdvedtfry prfkeothfd lrfa tme JYGR:.7 igtg, lfr exgap`e, whtm g 5 per oedt
iepreohgthfd rgte, tme gvergje rgte fl ogphtg` goouau`gthfd hd >229/25 wfu`i mgveneed ?.: per oedt. Yme upigte prfkeothfd usei hd tme stuiy hs permgps g `htt`e afreofdservgthve, nut gjghd tmhs rel`eots re`gthve`y pffr eofdfaho jrfwtm hd tme `gst pgrt fltme prfkeothfd perhfi (h.e. >22=->272). Medoe, tme gutmfr hs sgthslhei tmgt mhs prfkeothfdjedergtei g sedshn`e ogphtg` goouau`gthfd gdi prfiuothvhty jrfwtm soedgrhf.
Lhdg``y, omgdjes hd tgrhlls were ieterahdei ny gjjrejgthdj tme afst reoedt`ygvgh`gn`e elleothve`y gpp`hei rgtes hd tme Yrgie Gdg`yshs gdi Hdlfragthfd _ystea(Y^GHD_) igtgngse fl tme Udhtei Dgthfds Ofdleredoe fd Yrgie gdi Ieve`fpaedt
(UDOYGI) tf agtom tme stuiys seotfrg` gdi rejhfdg` gjjrejgthfd fl JYGR igtg.=Ygrhllreiuothfds were tmed hdo`uiei hd tme prfkeothfd shau`tgdefus`y whtm tme ftmer lgotfrs.Ygn`e > presedts tme trgie wehjmtei gvergje tgrhll (gpp`hei gdi lgoei) lfr se`eotei
eofdfahes hd tme JYGR:.7 igtg gdi hd tme gikustei igtgset. Lfr ofapgrhsfdpurpfses tme tgrhlls hd tme JYGR< igtg mgve g`sf need hdo`uiei, gs tmey mgve hd tmedew`y re`egsei JYGR= igtg3 tme ngse yegrs fl nftm gre >227 gdi >22:, respeothve`y.Gs ogd ne seed, tgrhlls mgve lg``ed sunstgdthg``y fver tme perhfi, sf ht hs hapfrtgdt tftgce tmhs legture hdtf goofudt.
= Lfr afst ofudtrhes tme igtg usei hs lfr >272. Ze agtomei g`` tme ofudtrhes repfrtei hd Y^GHD_ tf tme
ofrrespfdihdj JYGR rejhfds hd fur gjjrejgthfd (hdo`uihdj gjjrejgte rejhfds). _hah`gr`y, tme ihsgjjrejgte
mgrafdhzei systea tgrhll rgtes fl Y^GHD_ gre gjjrejgtei up tf tme JYGR ofdofrigdoe.
Ygn`e >. Zehjmtei gvergje tgrhll elleothve`y gpp`hei
gdi lgoei >227, >229, >22:, >272
(Reroedtgje)
Ofudtry>227 >229 >22: >272
Gpp`hei Lgoei Gpp`hei Lgoei Gpp`hei Lgoei Gpp`hei Lgoei
Gustrg`hg 9.? 5.? >.8 ?.= 7.= ?.?
Omhdg 77.9 5.= 5.< 5.2 =.5 9.: ?.9 ?.?
Hdihg >7.< 5.? 7>.= 9.< 77.9 ?.9 72.? ?.
Kgpgd 9.7 5.2 ?.> 9.= 7.8 7.< 9.2
Ag`gyshg 9.: ?.? 5.> >.= ?.5 >.5 >.< >.7
Dew [eg`gdi 7.: :.5 >.5 .8 ?.? >.7 ?.5 7.: ?.7 7.5
^epun`ho fl Cfreg =.9 2.2 >.> 2.2 7.7
Ymgh`gdi =.= 77.9
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ofudterei ny tme reiuoei iejree fl ofaputgthfdg` ofap`exhty, wmhom edgn`esofdshiergthfd fl g jregter rgdje fl pftedthg` soedgrhfs, gdi jregter `eve`s fl seotfrg`
gdi rejhfdg` ihsgjjrejgthfd tmgt mgve need gifptei, wmh`e sth`` giiresshdj tmeprhagry questhfds fl hdterest. Yme resu`ts presedtei hd seothfd HHH smfu`i ne hdterpreteigs hdihogthdj mfw tme eofdfahes wfu`i ihller g`fdj tme re`evgdt eofdfaho ihaedshfd,re`gthve tf tme prfkeotei >272 equh`hnrhua, glter g`` gikustaedts hd respfdse tf tme`hnerg`hzgthfd soedgrhf mgi tgced p`goe hl tme trgie grrgdjeaedts nehdj shau`gtei mgineed hap`eaedtei.
Egom fl tme soedgrhfs hs rud hd lfur ihlleredt perautgthfds, wmhom greieshjdei tf me`p udierstgdi tme pftedthg` hapfrtgdoe fl vgrhfus lgotfrs lfr tme
eofdfaho hapgot fl tme trgie relfra. Hd tme lhrst, g defo`gsshog` lgotfr agrcet o`fsurehs usei, wmereny tme tftg` gvgh`gnh`hty fl g`` prhagry lgotfrs hs lhxei gdi lgotfr prhoesgre l`exhn`e. Ymhs hs g ofdservgthve gpprfgom, hdtediei tf ogpture tme aeihua-rud
elleot fl tme trgie `hnerg`hzgthfd, h.e. lfous hs jhved tf tme elleot fl reg``fogthfd flprfiuothfd, ofdsuapthfd gdi trgie, lfr g jhved resfuroe/teomdf`fjy ngse. Dext, tmesgae soedgrhfs gre rud ushdj g stegiy-stgte (`fdj-rud) o`fsure hd tme agrcet lfrprfiuothve ogphtg`. Hd tmhs gpprfgom, gs iesorhnei gnfve, tme reg` returd tf ogphtg` hslhxei gdi tme supp`y fl ogphtg` hs edifjedfus`y ieterahdei hd respfdse tf ftmeromgdjes hd tme eofdfaho systea (see Mgrrhsfd, ^utmerlfri gdi Ygrr, 788:3 Zgdj gdi_omum, >22>3 gdi Jh`nert gdi Zgm`, >22>, lfr ftmer exgap`es). Ymhs hs g re`gthve`y`fw-ofst aetmfi fl gpprfxhagthdj tme iydgaho jghds lrfa trgie relfra gssfohgteiwhtm ogphtg` goouau`gthfd.
Neoguse LYGs agy hdvf`ve relfras tmgt lgoh`htgte hdterdgthfdg` trgie ftmertmgd tgrhll relfra, hd g tmhri perautgthfd haprfveaedts tf trgdspfrtgthfd teomdf`fjygre hdtrfiuoei tf tme shau`gthfds gt tme nh`gterg` `eve` tmgt gre fd tme frier fl 72 peroedt. Yme smfoc hs gpp`hei fd`y tf tme nh`gterg` trgie l`fws fl tme `hnerg`hzhdjeofdfahes. Ymhs hs g rgtmer shap`e gpprfgom, fl ofurse, nut ht ifes jhve sfae hieg flmfw auom trgie lgoh`htgthfd ahjmt agtter re`gthve tf trgie relfra. Ymhs trgie lgoh`htgthfdhs og``ei gssuapthfd 7.
Lhdg``y, hd tme lfurtm perautgthfd tme trgie lgoh`htgthfd hssue hs exp`frei lurtmerny uth`hzhdj igtg prfvhiei ny E_OGR fd trgie ofsts gt tme nh`gterg` `eve`. Ymegpprfgom hs tf use tme vgrhgthfd hd tme nh`gterg` trgie ofsts tf gikust tme trgdspfrtgthfdprfiuothvhty smfoc. Yme ngse prfiuothvhty smfoc tf trgdspfrtgthfd ellhohedoy hshdoregsei lrfa 72 per oedt tf >2 per oedt. Afre hapfrtgdt`y, wmh`e tme gvergje smfoc
hs >2 per oedt, tme gotug` smfoc fd gdy jhved ofudtry pghr hs hdverse`y prfpfrthfdg` tftme E_OGR esthagte fl trgie ofsts, det fl tme gotug` gpp`hei tgrhll. Medoe ofudtrypghrs whtm re`gthve`y mhjm trgie ofsts jet g prfpfrthfdg``y nhjjer smfoc tf prfiuothvhty,gdi ofudtry pghrs whtm re`gthve`y `fw nh`gterg` trgie ofsts jet g prfpfrthfdg``y sag``er
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smfoc tf prfiuothvhty. Ymgt hs tf sgy, ht hs gssuaei tmgt tmere gre ihahdhsmhdj returds tftrgie lgoh`htgthfd. Ymhs soedgrhf ogd ne hdterpretei gs shau`gthdj sfaetmhdj shah`gr tf
gifpthdj nest prgothoes. Yme nedelhts fl trgie lgoh`htgthfd gre g`sf gssuaei tf mgve gdhapgot fd g`` trgie l`fws, dft kust tme ofudtry pghrs `hnerg`hzhdj hd gdy pgrthou`grshau`gthfd. Ymgt hs, hd tme prevhfus shau`gthfd wmed, sgy, Ymgh`gdi `hnerg`hzes trgiewhtm Omhdg, tme trgie lgoh`htgthfd prfiuothvhty smfoc gpp`hei fd`y tf Ymgh`gdi-Omhdgtrgie. Dfw ht hs gssuaei tf gpp`y tf g`` fl Ymgh`gdis trgie (h.e. tme ellhohedoyhaprfveaedts gre gssuaei tf sph`` fver). Gjghd, tmhs hs sth`` g rgtmer shap`e gpprfgom,nut ht prfvhies g uselu` ieafdstrgthfd fl tme hapgot fl afre gjjresshve trgielgoh`htgthfd gssuapthfds. Ymhs hs og``ei trgie lgoh`htgthfd gssuapthfd >. Yme resu`tsudier nftm sets fl gssuapthfds ogd ne tmfujmt fl gs g type fl sedshthvhty gdg`yshs.
Zmh`e fd`y se`eotei resu`ts mgve need presedtei hd tmhs pgper, tme lu`` resu`ts gregvgh`gn`e fd request.
HHH. _HAU@GYHFD ^E_U@Y_
Yme resu`ts fl tme trgie `hnerg`hzgthfd soedgrhfs gre dfw ofdshierei. Ymeseved soedgrhfs udier ofdshiergthfd ogd ne jrfupei hdtf tmree nrfgi ogtejfrhes,wmhom egom mhjm`hjmthdj ihlleredt rejhfdg` trgie `hnerg`hzgthfd afig`hthes. Yme lhrst twf
gre ofdoerdei whtm sequedthg` expgdshfd oedtrei fd G_EGD. Yme dext twf greofdoerdei whtm twf ihlleredt afig`hthes lfr ofdsf`higthdj exhsthdj lree trgiegjreeaedts hd tme rejhfd, lhrst ny ieepedhdj tme iejree fl `hnerg`hzgthfd gafdjourredt aeaners gdi seofdi ny g`sf `hnerg`hzhdj netweed n`focs. Yme lhdg` jrfup fltmree, wmhom ofaprhse GRYG, gd E_OGR-whie LYG gdi ofap`ete au`th`gterg` trgierelfra, respeothve`y, ogd ne ofdshierei nedomagrcs gjghdst wmhom tme ftmer resu`tsogd ne ofapgrei.
Expgdihdj G_EGD
Hd tgn`e ? tme esthagtei we`lgre elleots fl tme lhrst jrfup fl soedgrhfs gre
presedtei lfr nftm tme aeihua-rud gdi `fdj-rud o`fsures, gdi ht ofdtghds tme twftrgie lgoh`htgthfd gssuapthfds. Ht agy ne reog``ei tmgt tme aeihua-rud shau`gthfdsogpture fd`y tme elleot fl reg``fogthdj exhsthdj resfuroes, wmh`e tme `fdj-rudshau`gthfds g`sf ogpture tme elleot fl ogphtg` goouau`gthfd. Yme igtg mgve needsuaagrhzei lfr tme eofdfahes ihreot`y glleotei ny tme relfra, nut g`sf tgce goofudtfl tme gjjrejgte elleots fd ofudtrhes dft hdo`uiei hd tme soedgrhfs, sp`ht ny tmfse
whtmhd E_OGR gdi tmfse futshie. Yme lhjures presedtei gre tme equhvg`edt vgrhgthfd hdmfusemf`i hdofae (E\), wmhom hs tme afdetgry vg`ue fl tme hdoreaedt hd hdofae tmgtwfu`i mgve tf ne jhved tf (fr tgced gwgy lrfa) tme rejhfdg` mfusemf`i gt tfigys
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Gshg-Rgohlho Ieve`fpaedt Kfurdg` \f`. >2, Df. 7, Kude >27?
7>
prhoes tf agce tmea gs we`` fll tfigy gs tmey wfu`i ne udier tme prfpfsei pf`hoyomgdje, glter tme requhrei eofdfaho gikustaedts mgve tgced p`goe.8
Yme tftg` we`lgre jghd tf tme eofdfahes fl G_EGD hs esthagtei gt rfujm`y$?.: nh``hfd lrfa ofap`ethfd fl G_EGD+?, rhshdj tf $5.8 nh``hfd lrfa G_EGD+ per oedt, tme tftg` jghd hs rfujm`y 52 thaes tme gddug` jghd).
72 Ht smfu`i ne dftei tmgt g`` resu`ts presedtei hd tgn`e ? were aegsurei re`gthve tf tme sgae prfkeotei
equh`hnrhua. Medoe, tme hdoreaedtg` fr agrjhdg` nedelht ogd ne ieterahdei ny tgchdj tme ihlleredoe
netweed twf of`uads.
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Gshg-Rgohlho Ieve`fpaedt Kfurdg` \f`. >2, Df. 7, Kude >27?
7?
Ygn`e?.Aeihua
gdi`fdj-rudwe`lgrehapgotflG_EGD
expgdshf
dsoedgrhfs
(Ah``hfdsflUdhtei_tgtesif``grs,E\) A
e
ihua
rud
@fdj
rud
@fdj-rudtrgie
@fdj-rudtrgie
Ofudtryfrgreg
lgoh`htgthf
d7
lgoh`htgthfd>
G_EGD+
?
G_EGD+.2
Hdihg
->87.=
-7?:2.7
-55>.?
:=72.5
-:22.8
=>98.?
-:5?.9
72
75=.7
Kgpgd
529?.=
>55:?.:
>575=.8
>59.