Asia-Pacific Mega Trends

Charles E. Morrison, East-West Center

Half Moon Bay, January 2010

Connecting Dots: Three Mega-Disasters

December 2004: Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami: 230,000 dead

October 2005: Kashmir Earthquake: 80,000 dead

May 2008: Sichuan Earthquake: 70,000 dead

Tectonic Plates in Southern Asia

INDIA PLATE

EURASIA PLATE

Chengdu

Aceh

Kashmir

Kathmandu

Human Change in 40 Years

Certainties/Uncertainties

Near Certainties:The “rise” of AsiaDemographic changesPressures on resources and the

environmentNew health challenges

Uncertainties:Sustainable development?Social and political evolution International relationsAsia-Pacific role in addressing global

issues

The Rise/Re-rise of AsiaShare of Gross World Product (PPP)

Asia

AsiaAsia Asia

AsiaAsia

Europe

Europe

EuropeEurope

EuropeEurope

USUS

US

US USUS

Other Other OtherOther Other Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1820 1870 1913 1970 1990 2006

From “World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2006 A.D.,” by Angus Maddison; Asia includes South Asia

Labor Productivity Growth1993-2003

WORLD: 10.9 percent Sub-Saharan Africa: -1.5 percent Middle East: 0.9 percent Latin America: 1.2 percent Industrialized economies: 14.9 percent Transition economies: 25.4 percent Southeast Asia: 21.6 percent South Asia: 37.9 percent East Asia: 75.0 percent

International Labor Organization

Growth of Tertiary Enrollment(Enrollment Ratios, 1985-2005)

0102030405060708090

100

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Ch

ina

Mal

aysi

a

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Th

aila

nd

Jap

an

Ko

rea

US

A

Source: World Bank

Demographic Tectonics

China’s Population in Comparative Perspective

Fertility DeclineTotal Fertility Rate: Babies per Female

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

East Asia Southeast Asia South & CentralAsia

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

East-West Center, The Future of Population in Asia, 2002, p. 10.

“Flight from Marriage:”(Never Married Rates: Female, Age 35-39)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1970 1990 2000

Indonesia S. KoreaThailand Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1990 2000

Jakarta Seoul

Hong Kong Bangkok

Adapted from Gavin C. Jones, The “Flight from Marriage” in South-East and East Asia

Asia Population

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Year

Peo

ple

(m

illi

on

s) East Asia

S.E. Asia

South and CentralAsia

E

East-West Center, Future of Population

Composition of Population(Japan)

Growth of ElderlyPercent of Population Over Age 75

0 5 10 15 20 25

Japan

Singapore

S. Korea

China

Thailand

Vietnam

Indonesia

India

2000

2050

Source: East-West Center, Future of Population, 2002

East Asian Urban Areas (Mega-cities) over 10 million

1950

Tokyo, 11.3 million

1975

Tokyo, 26.3 millionOsaka, 14.0 millionSeoul, 12.0 millionShanghai, 11.4 million

2008 estimate

Tokyo, 34.4 millionJakarta, 21.8 millionSeoul, 20.0 millionManila, 19.6 millionOsaka, 17.3 millionShanghai, 14.5 millionBeijing, 12.8 millionGuangzhou, 11.8 millionShenzhen, 11.7 millionBangkok, 10.8 million

Wikipedia Sources, figures vary

Comparative GDP, 2008(PPP estimates)

Tokyo, $1,479 billionSouth Korea, $1,342 billion Canada, $1,303 billion Australia, $795 billionSeoul, $291 billionVietnam, $240 billion

Source: Cities, Pricewaterhousecoopers, Countries, IMF

Asia Pacific Disaster Map with Mega-cities

Source: Pacific Disaster Center

yo

Manila

Jakarta

Shanghai

Seoul

Beijing

Osaka

Tokyo

Pacific Disaster Center

Kolkata

Resource Pressures

Regional Petroleum DeficitsMillions of Barrels per day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1973 2001 2020

Europe

N. America

Asia-Pacific

Congressional Research Service

Growth in Energy Use with Income1980 to 2002

Growth of Auto Production 2007

JapanUS

China

S Korea

India

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

China

India

S Kor

Japan

US-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Millions Vehicles Manufactured

Source: International Organization of Automobile Manufacturers

Percent Increase over 2006

China’s Share of . . .

World Population: 20.1 percent

Coal Reserves: 12.6 percent

Oil Reserves: 1.3 percent

Natural Gas Reserves: 1.3 percent

Source: East-West Center, The Future of Energy in Asia-Pacific, 2007

Annual Renewable Fresh Water Supply

Source:Liquid Assets, 2005, cited in RAND, “One World, One Well”

Water Problem: A Chinese Perspective

China Daily cartoon, 14 November 2006

Growth of Per Capita Meat Consumption – China, 1980-2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 2007

20 kg

54 kg

Source: Jonathan Watts, The Guardian, 30 May 2008Note: For comparison, US per capita consumption about 122 kg

Health Tectonics

Traditional Health Risks (down)New infectious diseases, including

HIV/AIDS, avian flu, new strains of tuberculosis (careful monitoring required)

Chronic conditions and diseases associated with aging and life style changes (up)

Infectious Diseases: A Health Fault Line?

“Spanish Flu” Pneumonia: 1919Asian Flu: 1967Bird Flu (Hong Kong): 1997SARS: 2003Avian Flu: 2004-

Poultry Density

Source: FAO, AGA Livestock Atlas Series

11-Year-Old Children’s FitnessJapan

Seconds to Run 50 Meters

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9

9.2

9.4

1987 2006

Boys

Girls

Average Soft-Ball Throw (Meters)

15

20

25

30

35

1987 2006

Source: Japan Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, 2007

Prevalence of Diabetes: 2000-2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Millions people

India China Other Asia

20002030

151% increase

104%

148% increase

Source: Wild, S, Roglic G., Green, A., Sicree, R, and King, H. “Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the Year 2000 and Projects for 2030, Diabetes Care, Vol. 27, Number 5, May 2004. Average global increase 114%.

The Uncertainties

Sustainable development - Economic models - Resource impacts Domestic evolution - Social disparities - Political dynamics International relations Global leadership

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

East Asia 423 528.5 588.7 675.8

US -771.4 -823.8 -779.4 -796.8

2005 2006 2007 2008

Asia Pacific Current Account Imbalances (US bn)

Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, 2007

Gini Co-efficients

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007

Brazil

Mexico

USA

China

Japan

Brazil

Japan

Mexico China

USA

Sources: World Bank, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Income Changes China1995 to 2005

Bottom 10 percent have seen incomes rise 42 percent

Middle 10 percent have seen incomes rise 115 percent

Top 10 percent have seen incomes rise 168 percent

Danny Leipziger and Michael Spence, Financial Times, 15 May 2007, p. 11

Environmental Futures

Global Carbon Emissions

Map from The Guardian Datablog

CO2 Emitters Per Capita (tons)

0

5

10

15

20

25

US Canada Australia Japan China India

Attitude Survey on Environment

Who Hurts the Environment the Most?China US % %

Americans 40 22Chinese 9 26Japanese 67 17Koreans 64 19Indonesians 11 42Germans 39 34

Pew Global Attitude Project, 2008

Governance Issues and Political Transitions

Political Systems in Evolution

Recent coups or attempted coups: Thailand, Philippines, Timor Leste, Fiji, Bangladesh

New democracy: Indonesia Maturing democracies: South Korea, Taiwan Significant change may be underway: Malaysia,

Japan Socialist countries in transition: China, Vietnam Autocratic regimes: North Korea, Burma, Brunei

Some Geo-Political Issues

Last international war? Ethno-nationalism (internal/international

dimensions) - Pacific/Atlantic difference Power Transitions “Afpak” Future of Cross-Strait Relations Future of the Korean Peninsula Territorial Disputes Regional Architecture

Mutual Attitudes

Two Main Points:

+ In general, Asians feel “warmer” toward America than Americans toward Asia

+ In general, positive images of the U.S. appear to have been declining

Overall Warmth of Americans Toward Asian Countries and Asians Toward the United

States, 2008/2006 0 (cold) to 100 (hot)

Asians toward US: 61US toward Asian countries: 44

Source: Chicago Council of Foreign Relations, 2008. Based on Data fromChina, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India

US-China Mirrored Perceptions

So

Source: Committee of 100, December 2007

Asian Views of US

Percent favorable 2000* 2002 2003 2005 2007 2008

2009% % % % % %

Pakistan 23 10 13 23 15 19 16

Indonesia 75 61 15 38 29 37 63

Malaysia -- -- -- -- 27 -- --

China -- -- -- 42 34 41 47

India -- 66 -- 71 59 66 76

Japan 77 72 -- -- 61 50 59

S. Korea 58 52 46 -- 58 70 78

* 2000 trends provided by the Office of Research, U.S. Department of State. Some data from 1999. Other data from Pew Global Attitudes Project