Asia-Pacific Pivot: Futile Campaign to Reinforce U.S. Hegemony

Sec. Hagel & Defense Minister Onodera – April 5, 2014

Park, Obama.Abe in the HagueMarch 25, 2014

Chairman Xi & European Council President Rampuy – April 1, 2014

B-2 & B-52 Simulated Nuclear Attacks Against North Korea – March, 2013

Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

Chinese Warship Challenges Malaysian Territorial Claim

U.S. National Intelligence Council:Global Trends 2025

• “the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way, roughly from West to East” is “without precedent in modern history”

“Asia will return to its historic status, with more than half of the world’s population and half of the world’s economic output. America must be present there. Markets and economic power rest on political frameworks, and American military power provides that framework.”

Oil & 60% of the U.S. Navy

“Obama is sending a clear message to Beijing, we are becoming less dependent on imported oil, so we enjoy ‘a stronger hand’ in international relations. You are becoming more reliant on imports, and are in the unfortunate position of having to relay on supply routes that are controlled by the US Navy”

John Kerry is a ForbesWealth derived in part from opium

trade

• J

Secretary of State William Seward

If the United States is to replace Britain as the world’s dominant power, it must first control Asia

Subic Bay 1890s

(Charged) Class A War Criminal Prime Minister Kishi Nobusuke

U.S. Asia-Pacific Nuclear Blackmail

• 1950 Truman threatens Chinese over Chosin Reservoir, Korea. • 1951 Truman approves military request to attack Manchuria. • 1953 “Operation Big Stick” Eisenhower threatens China to force end to Korean War • 1954 Secretary of State Dulles offers French three tactical nuclear weapons to break Dienbienphu

siege • 1958 Eisenhower orders JCS to prepare nuclear attack vs. China during Quemoy • 1967 Johnson's nuclear threats against Vietnam to break siege at Khe Shan. • 1968 Johnson threatens nuclear attack against North Korea USS Pueblo seizure • 1969 Nixon’s “November Ultimatum” against Vietnam. • 1973 Nixon pledges to South Vietnamese President Thieu that he will respond with nuclear attacks

or bombing North Vietnam’s dikes if it violates Paris Peace Accords • 1975 Sec. of Defense Schlesinger threatens N. Korea with nuclear retaliation if it attacks S. Korea • 1976 Ax Incident, President Ford dispatches nuclear armed B-52 from Guam toward N. Korea • 1993 Clinton threatens N. Korea. • 1994 Clinton again threatens N.Korea • 2003 Bush dispatches 24 nuclear capable bombers to Guam during crisis with N. Korea. • 2013 Obama simulated B-52 & B-2 attacks against N.Korea

America's Pacific CenturyThe future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the United States will be right at the center of the action.BY HILLARY CLINTON |NOVEMBER 2011

Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs“ It will be important for China to accept that the United States is going to plan an enduring, strong role in the Asia-Pacific region. But the United States does want a stronger, deeper relationship with China, and we have made that undeniably clear.”

Asahi Shimbun, Feb. 9, 2013

Global Times - China

“The U.S.-China wrestling match over the South China Sea issue has raised the stakes in deciding who the real future ruler of the planet will be.”

:

Japanese & Chinese Warships, Taiwanese FishingVessels Engaged Near Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

DOD: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China

– Aircraft carrier(s) and Growing Naval Capacity– Area Denial Missile Development– Next Generation of Fighter Refueling & Transport

Aircraft for power projection– Cyber Warfare Capabilities– Nuclear Weapons Modernization– Satellite information & warfare technologies

Japanese Prime Minister Abe• Seeks to Restore Much of Pre-

War Order:• Reinterpret Constitution• Denies Wartime

Aggression• Visit to Yasakuni Shrine• Increasing Military

Spending• Denies territorial

disputes exist• New State Secrets Law• Denies military’s role in

Wartime Sexual Slavery – Apology to be Revisited

• Information Control - NHK

Robert Kaplan: The Revenge of Geography

• “China is a rising and still immature power, obsessed with the territorial humiliations it suffered in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. [It] is developing asymmetric and anti-access niche capabilities designed to deny the U.S. Navy easy entry into the East China Sea and other coastal waters. China is not remotely capable of directly challenging the U.S. militarily. The aim...is dissuasion…that the U.S. Navy in the future will think twice as [China’s military} expands, and three times about getting between the First Island Chain and the Chinese coast.”

President Obama Addresses Australian Parliament

Preparing for Possible War Against China – Driving Pentagon Spending

F-35 - $1.5 Trillion & Aircraft Carriers

Cyber Warfare, Prompt Global Strike, Space & Nuclear Weapons Modernization

Air-See Battle Doctrine

Armitage-NyeThe U.S.-Japan Alliance

Anchoring Stability in Asia

• CHALLENGE - Will Japan Remain a “First Tier” Nation? Response to Hatoyama challenge of East Asian Community, Okinawa and “drift” of alliance

• Press reinterpretation of constitution – 6th biggest military spender w/Iraq, Afghan & pirating precedents

• Nuclear power & resource alliance• Expand Defense Guidelines for “global” alliance• Build U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral alliance

– Problem of Japanese nationalism/Abe/history problem• Okinawa – Retain Futenma

Japan in the Arms Race

South Korea: “Joint vision for a global alliance and deeper trading partnership.”

Reinforcing Alliances and Military Cooperation

Philippines Guam Singapore Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Australia Myanmar New Zealand India Afghanistan/Central Asia NATO Partnerships

U.S. Bases Returning to Philippines

Trans Pacific PartnershipA Strategic Treaty

•Maximizing U.S. influence as China challenges the post-war economic (dis)order•Integrating Japanese, Korean & other economies and societies with the U.S.•Limiting their dependence on China•Linking to U.S.-E.U. Free Trade Area for “Greater West”

Back to the Future: World War I

• Rising and Declining Powers• Arms Races with New Technologies• Resurgent Nationalism• Territorial Disputes• Resource Competition• Complex Alliance Arrangements• Economic Integration & Competiton• Wild Card Actors

People Aren’t PassiveOpposition to U.S. Militarism

COMMON SECURITY ALTERNATIVES

Common Security FrameworkNew Shanghai CommuniqueSix Party TalksDirect U.S.-North Korean NegotiationsNortheast Asian Nuclear Weapons Free ZoneEast Asian SummitASEAN +Budget for All

Solidarity & Focal Points• Okinawa Anti-Bases

Struggle• http://chn.ge/1ecQPUJ • Halt U.S.-ROK War Games

& Nuclear Threats• Education• Jeju Anti-Base Struggle• Move the Money• Oppose Trans Pacific

Partnership• Working Group:

www.asiapacificinitiative.org

Working Group for Peace & Demilitarization in Asia & the Pacific

www.asiapacificiniative.org

Thomas Donilon, National Security Advisor 3/11/13

Four Pillars of Obama’s Engagement & Containment Strategy1. Continue to strengthen U.S. alliances, alliance with Japan remains cornerstone2, Deeper partnership with emerging powers: China, India, Indonesia3. Build constructive relationships with China4. Strengthen regional institutions

Layers of Conflict

– legacies from the Cold War – e.g. North Korea’s fears of U.S. & Japanese gov’t created by U.S.

• – Continued and deepening efforts by the U.S. to reinforce its

Asia-Pacific hegemony•

– renewed mercantile competition – including imperial ambitions – reminiscent of the age of colonialism, albeit in the contexts of neoliberal globalization

• – The intersection of great power competition with tensions

rooted in regional history

U.S.-Japan Alliance – Still the Keystone

Japan: World’s 6th greatest military spender, modern navy, missiles, stores of plutonium, “Shifting Further Away from Pacifism” – New York Times

Japan Remains the Keystone• Challenge after Hatoyama challenge of East Asian • Community & Okinawa: Japan a 1st tier country?• Expanding Defense Guidelines for “global” alliance• Pressing reinterpretation of constitution – 6th biggest • military spender. Iraq, Afghan & pirating precedents• Nuclear power & resource alliance• Okinawa• Effort to build U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral alliance• Problem of Japanese nationalism/Abe/history problem• Tied by alliance to defend in war over

Senkaku/Diaoyu’s vs, China

Thomas Donilon – N’tl Sec. Advisor Four Pillars of U.S. Asia-Pacific Strategy• Continue to strengthen our alliances…Our

alliance with Japan remains a cornerstone…• Forging deeper partnerships with emerging

powers (China, India, Indonesia)• Building a constructive relationship with

China• Strengthening regional institutions

Back to the Future: 1890s