asia report 2016 asian urbanization trends · urbanization evolution over time in the asia- pacific...
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Asian Urbanization trends BBVA Research Asia, MENA & Geostrategy Unit
ASIA REPORT 2016
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Asia social trends projections
2
Key takeaways
1 Urbanization phenomenon has increasingly spread over the last years, fostered by Asia and it’s expected to continue in the next decade.
2 China and India, followed by Indonesia, are leading this urbanization process.
3 The rapid pace of urbanization will drive higher income growth and consumption expenditure, as well as a change in consumption patterns.
4 Competitiveness levels and the adoption of new technologies will also be triggered by higher urbanization rates.
5 Government must be supportive of these social changes with transparent, responsive and dynamic policies to take advantage of it
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Asia social trends projections
3
Source: BBVA Research, UN
53%
7%
22%
17%
1980
39%
3% 45%
13%
2025
Emerging rural area Developed Rural area Emerging urban area Developed urban area
Close to 50% of population around the world will live in urban areas by 2025…
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Asia social trends projections
4
1990
2025
Less than 300000
300000 to 500000
500000 to 1 mill
1 to 5 mill
10 mill or more
5 to 10 mill
The world’s cities by size class of urban settlement.
…and agglomeration in Asia will become increasingly relevant…
Source: BBVA Research, UN
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Asia social trends projections
5
Average annual rate of change of city populations by size class of urban settlement, 1990–2025
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Asia social trends projections
6
Distribution of urban population across world
regions (1960-2025)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
Africa Asia
Europe Latin America and the Caribbean
Northern America Oceania
Forecast
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
China Japan Republic of Korea
Bangladesh India Indonesia
Malaysia Myanmar Philippines
Thailand Vietnam Rest of countries
Forecast
Distribution of urban population across
Asian countries (1960-2025)
… with China as the main contributor…
Source: BBVA Research, UN
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Asia social trends projections
7
… following its rapid urban expansion between 2000 and 2010
China population density 1990
Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou
China population density 2010
Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou
Source: BBVA Research, UN
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Asia social trends projections
8
Average annual rate of change of city populations
by size class of urban settlement, 1990–2025 in the
Asia- Pacific region
Evolution of cities by size class of urban settlement
in the Asia- Pacific region during 1990-2025
Less than 300000 300000 to 500000
500000 to 1 mill 1 to 5 mill 10 mill or more 5 to 10 mill
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Asia social trends projections
9
…with heterogeneities between regions
0
50
100
150
200
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0
5
10
15
20
25
10
mill
or
mo
re
5 t
o 1
0 m
ill
1 t
o 5
mill
50
0 0
00 to
1 m
ill
30
0 0
00 to
500 0
00
10
mill
or
mo
re
5 t
o 1
0 m
ill
1 t
o 5
mill
50
0 0
00 to
1 m
ill
30
0 0
00 to
500 0
00
10
mill
or
mo
re
5 t
o 1
0 m
ill
1 t
o 5
mill
50
0 0
00 to
1 m
ill
30
0 0
00 to
500 0
00
10
mill
or
mo
re
5 t
o 1
0 m
ill
1 t
o 5
mill
50
0 0
00 to
1 m
ill
30
0 0
00 to
500 0
00
10
mill
or
mo
re
5 t
o 1
0 m
ill
1 t
o 5
mill
50
0 0
00 to
1 m
ill
30
0 0
00 to
500 0
00
10
mill
or
mo
re
5 t
o 1
0 m
ill
1 t
o 5
mill
50
0 0
00 to
1 m
ill
30
0 0
00 to
500 0
00
10
mill
or
mo
re
5 t
o 1
0 m
ill
1 t
o 5
mill
50
0 0
00 to
1 m
ill
30
0 0
00 to
500 0
00
10
mill
or
mo
re
5 t
o 1
0 m
ill
1 t
o 5
mill
50
0 0
00 to
1 m
ill
30
0 0
00 to
500 0
00
10
mill
or
mo
re
5 t
o 1
0 m
ill
1 t
o 5
mill
50
0 0
00 to
1 m
ill
30
0 0
00 to
500 0
00
Western Asia Eastern Asia Central Asia South-Eastern Asia South-Central Asia Southern Asia China India Indonesia
Series1 Series2
Source: BBVA Research, UN
Number of Cities Classified by Size Class of Urban Settlement, Region and Country in Emerging Asia,
1990 to 2025
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Asia social trends projections
10
Urbanization evolution over time in the Asia- Pacific
region, 1990, 2015, 2025
Percentage of the Population in Urban Areas
Urbanization trends will continue…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
Forecast China IndiaIndonesia Japan MalaysiaThailand world Korea
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
India
Vie
tnam
Bang
lad
esh
Phili
ppin
es
Tha
iland
Indon
esia
Ch
ina
Ma
laysia
Kore
a
Japa
n
1990 2015 2025
Source: BBVA Research, World Bank and UN Source: BBVA Research, World Bank and UN
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Asia social trends projections
11
China’ Population distribution
by area (1960-2025) (‘000)
India’ Population distribution
by area (1960-2025) (‘000)
Indonesia’ Population distribution
by area (1960-2025) (‘000)
Korea’ Population distribution by
area (1960-2025) (‘000)
0
400000
800000
1200000
1600000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
0
400000
800000
1200000
1600000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
0
60000
120000
180000
240000
300000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Urban area Rural area
… but at different pace in each country…
Source: BBVA Research, UN, WB, IMF
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Asia social trends projections
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Australia
Bangladesh
Brunei
Canada
China
Chile
India Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Maldives Mongolia
New Zealand North Korea
Palau
New Guinea Peru
Philippines
Russia
Samoa
Singapore
South Korea
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Tuvalu
Vietnam
United States
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Urban population (% of total)
GD
P p
er
capita (
US
D P
PP
)
Level of urbanization and GDP per capita in the
Asia- Pacific region in 2015
… and having a positive impact on income growth…
China
Malaysia
Korea
India
Indonesia
Japan
Thailand
World
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Urban population (% of total)
GD
P p
er
capita (
US
D P
PP
)
Level of urbanization and GDP per capita in the
Asia- Pacific region in 2000-2015
Source: BBVA Research, World Bank and UN
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Asia social trends projections
13
Urban population (% of total)
Labor
pro
ductivity
(US
D P
PP
)
Level of urbanization and labor productivity in the
Asia- Pacific region in 2015
… labor productivity…
Labor
pro
ductivity
(US
D P
PP
)
Level of urbanization and labor productivity in the
Asia- Pacific region in 2000-2015
Source: BBVA Research, World Bank and UN
China
Malaysia
Korea
India Indonesia
Japan
Thailand
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Urban population (% of total)
Australia
Bangladesh Cambodia
Canada
China
Chile
India Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Maldives Mongolia
Nepal
New Zealand
Peru Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka Thailand
Vietnam
United States
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
0 20 40 60 80 100
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Asia social trends projections
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Bangladesh
India Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Malaysia Philippines
Thailand
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Hou
se
ho
ld fin
al co
nsu
mp
tion
exp
en
ditu
re,
US
D P
PP
an
d in
mill
ion
s
Urban population (% of total)
Level of urbanization and household final
consumption expenditure in the Asia- Pacific
region in 2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
China Philippines Indonesia India Thailand Bangladesh
Urban Rural
Population distribution by area in 2010
Household consumption distribution by area in USD
PPP in 2010
…and on consumption…
Source: BBVA Research, World Bank
-
Asia social trends projections
15
Consumption Pattern by consumption segment in China (2010)
Urban VS National Consumption Pattern in Asia- Pacific region (GDP per capita, % en consumer price index basket, 2010)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Lowest Low Middle High All
Food and Beverages Clothing and Footwear Housing
Energy Transport Water Utility
Education Health ICT
Financial Services Others Personal Care
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Urb
an
Natio
nal
Urb
an
Natio
nal
Urb
an
Natio
nal
Urb
an
Natio
nal
Urb
an
Natio
nal
Urb
an
Natio
nal
Urb
an
Natio
nal
China India Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Philippines Bangladesh
Food and Beverages Clothing and Footwear Housing
Energy Transport Water Utility
Education Health ICT
Financial Services Others Personal Care
…leading to a change in the consumption patterns…
Source: BBVA Research and IMF Source: BBVA Research and IMF
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Asia social trends projections
16
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Glo
ba
l C
om
pe
titive
ne
ss In
de
x,
1
-7 (
be
st)
Urban population (% of total)
… and triggering competitiveness…
Source: BBVA Research, Weforum
Technological adoptions in 2015 (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
Global Competitivenss Index in 2015 (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Te
ch
no
log
ica
l ad
op
tio
n, 1
-7 (
be
st)
Urban population (% of total)
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Asia social trends projections
17
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
201520142013201220112010200920082007
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20152014201320122011
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
201520142013201220112010200920082007
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
201520142013201220112010200920082007
Business sophistication
ICT use
Availability of latest technologies
Firm-level technology absorption
Availa
bili
ty o
f la
test
technolo
gie
s,
1-7
(best)
Busin
ess s
ophis
tication,
1-7
(best)
IC
T u
se,
1-7
(best)
Firm
-level te
chnolo
gy
absorp
tion,
1-7
(best)
…although there’s still room for improvement in some Asian countries
Source: BBVA Research, Weforum
-
Asia social trends projections
18
Higher levels of urbanization also lead to the spread of ICT
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16*
Per
100 inhabitants
Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions
Individuals using the Internet
Fixed-telephone subscriptions
Active mobile-broadband subscriptions
Fixed-broadband subscriptions
Australia
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Myanmar
Cambodia
Canada
China
Chile French
Polynesia
India
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Maldives
Marshall Islands
Micronesia
Mongolia
Nepal
New Zealand New Caledonia
Pakistan
Peru Philippines
Samoa
Singapore
Solomon Islands
Sri Lanka
Thailand Tonga Tuvalu
United States
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
Level of urbanization and internet use in the
Asia- Pacific region in 2015
ICT developments in the Asia- Pacific region
in 2005-2016*
Urban population (% of total)
Indiv
iduals
usin
g the I
nte
rnet (%
)
* Estimate
Source: BBVA Research, ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database
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Asia social trends projections
19
China
India Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 20 40 60 80 100
Qu
alit
y o
f o
ve
rall
infr
astr
uctu
re
Urban population (% of total)
Urbanization also leads to higher quality of infrastructures and workforce
Source: BBVA Research, Weforum
Global Quality of Infrastructures in 2015 (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
Education and training in 2015 (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
China
India
Indonesia
Japan Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 20 40 60 80 100
Hig
he
r e
du
ca
tio
n a
nd
tra
inin
g
Urban population (% of total)
China
India Indonesia
Japan
Korea Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 20 40 60 80 100
Tra
nsp
ort
in
fra
str
uctu
re
Urban population (% of total)
Transport infrastructure in 2015 (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
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Asia social trends projections
20
It will depend on government policies to take advantage of it
Urban
governance
Improve
urban
infrastructure
and services
Foster
transparency
and
accountability
Promote
more
responsive
and dynamic
policies
Infrastructure and education indices across Asian countries, 2010-2015 (scale ranges from 1 to 7, best)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Bangladesh China India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Korea
Quality of overall infrastructure Higher education and training Transport infrastructure 2010
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Asia social trends projections
21
Key takeaways
1 Urbanization phenomenon has increasingly spread over the last years, fostered by Asia and it’s expected to continue in the next decade.
2 China and India, followed by Indonesia, are leading this urbanization process.
3 The rapid pace of urbanization will drive higher income growth and consumption expenditure, as well as a change in consumption patterns.
4 Competitiveness levels and the adoption of new technologies will also be triggered by higher urbanization rates.
5 Government must be supportive of these social changes with transparent, responsive and dynamic policies to take advantage of it
-
Asia social trends projections
22
This report has been produced by Asia, MENA & Geostrategy Team
Chief Economist,
Asia, MENA & Geostrategy
Álvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca
Le Xia
Tomasa Rodrigo
Sumedh Deorukhkar
Contact details:
BBVA Research
Ciudad BBVA
28046 Madrid (Spain)
Tel. + 34 91 374 60 00 and + 34 91 537 70 00
Fax. +34 91 374 30 25
www.bbvaresearch.com
BBVA Research Asia
43/F Two International Finance Centre
8 Finance Street Central
Hong Kong
Tel: +852 2582 3111
E-mail: [email protected]
-
Asia social trends projections
23
BBVA Research Group Chief Economist
Jorge Sicilia
Cross Country Emerging Economies
Asia, Middle East & Geostrategy
Álvaro Ortiz
Asia
Le Xia
Turkey
Alvaro Ortiz Mexico
Carlos Serrano
Latam Coordination
Juan Ruiz
Argentina
Gloria Sorensen
Chile
Jorge Selaive
Colombia
Juana Téllez
Peru
Hugo Perea
Venezuela
Oswaldo López
Developed Economies:
Rafael Doménech
Spain
Miguel Cardoso
Europe
Miguel Jiménez
US
Nathaniel Karp
Global Areas:
Financial Scenarios
Sonsoles Castillo
Economic Scenarios
Julián Cubero
Innovation & Processes
Oscar de las Peñas
Financial Systems & Regulation:
Santiago Fernández de Lis
Financial Systems
Ana Rubio
Financial Inclusion
David Tuesta
Regulation and Public Policies
María Abascal
Recovery and Resolution Policy
José Carlos Pardo
Contact details:
BBVA Research
Ciudad BBVA
28046 Madrid (Spain)
Tel. + 34 91 374 60 00 and + 34 91 537 70 00
Fax. +34 91 374 30 25
www.bbvaresearch.com
BBVA Research Asia
43/F Two International Finance Centre
8 Finance Street Central
Hong Kong
Tel: +852 2582 3111
E-mail: [email protected]
-
Asia social trends projections
24
This document has been prepared by BBVA Research Department, it is provided for information purposes only and expresses data,
opinions or estimations regarding the date of issue of the report, prepared by BBVA or obtained from or based on sources we consider
to be reliable, and have not been independently verified by BBVA. Therefore, BBVA offers no warranty, either express or implicit,
regarding its accuracy, integrity or correctness.
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Asia social trends projections
25
Asian Urbanization trends BBVA Research Asia, MENA & Geostrategy Unit
ASIA REPORT 2016