1

Asian Aerosols: Current and Future Aerosol Distributions and Their Implications for

Human Health and Regional Climate Change

2

Models Constrained With Observations Play Increasing Important Roles In Research and Policy

Optimized Pollution

Distributions

MODIS AOD

Total & Fine mode

3

Observed and Predicted PM at the Maldives ABC SiteTotal PM 2.5 Mass at HCO

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9/1 10/1 10/31 11/30 12/30 1/29 2/28 3/30 4/29 5/29 6/28 7/28 8/27

DATE(2004-2005)

ug/m3

Observed Total PM 1.0

Observed Total PM 2.5

STEM Total PM 2.5 withAdjusted Dust

PM2.5

4

KanpurAOD Results

Model (550nm) versus Aeronet (500nm) Aerosol Optical Depth at KANPUR

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0.40

0.60

0.80

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1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

9/1 10/1 10/31 11/30 12/30 1/29 2/28 3/30 4/29 5/29 6/28 7/28 8/27

Date (2004-2005)

AOD

AERONET AOT_500

STEM Total AOD

Model Predicted Total AOD at KANPUR

0.00

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0.40

0.50

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0.90

1.00

SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG

AO

D

Adhikary et al., JGR, 2007

5

Comparison of Predicted and Observed PM2.5

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5-yr Mean Aerosol Mass

Fig 2

7

Seasonal Analysis of 5-yr Mean AOD (PMF)

8

BC into Central Asia Comes Mostly From South Asia Followed by Europe

SA

EU

SA

EAEU

9

BC into Central Asia Comes Mostly From South Asia Followed by Europe

SA

EU

SA

EAEU

1010

Reducing the Impacts of ABCs Have Important Co-benefits

1) Improved Air Quality/Health;

2) Slow Himalayan-Tibetan glacier retreat

3) Monsoon disturbances

Reduced Climate Change

Alter the balance between absorbing and scattering aerosol

Win/Win Strategy+ Decrease PM2.5

+ Decrease BC faster than Sulfate aerosol

11

BC Focused Controls Have Significant Health (and Climate) Benefits and

Opportunities

Figure Source: Adhikary et al., JGR, 2008

BC Column Amounts

Bond et al., ERL, 2007

Biofuels is a significant source in many regions

12

How Has The SO2 To BC Ratio Changed In The Past In Asia?

(Not stacked)

Ohara, et al., ACP, 2007; Bond et al., GBGC, 2007; Stern, Chemosph., 2005; Streets et al., JGR, 2004

?China

13

Future Changes in PM2.5Under IPCC Scenarios the

BC to Sulfate Ratios Decrease …BUT

14

Beijing Olympics – a Good Example of Where Pollution Problems and Solutions Appear First. OMI Satellite Analysis of NO2 and SO2 Columns Were Able To Detect The Emission Changes

Beijing Olympics Controls strategies led to a more rapid

decrease in BC than S emissions! Decreases in emissions:

BC: 36%

SO2: 14%

1515

Where Are The Win/Wins?

1) Improved Air Quality/Health;

Reduced Climate Change

Design paths.

Are we on these paths?

+

-

16

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Statement of Tasks (EPA,NASA,NOAA,NSF)

18

Satellites

Reducing Uncertaintiesin Source Attribution

through Closer Integration

S/R relationshipsFuture scenarios:

•Climate Change•Emissions•Changing Air Quality Standards

ScenariosRegional and sectoral

signaturesSpeciation

Identification of LRT event emissions

and transport (including height)

Source attribution, fingerprint identification,

trend detection

ModelingEmissions

Field Studies

Long Term Monitoring

Process understanding

Regional synthesis

19

SUMMARY

ABCs have important implications for the quality of the air we breathe, the water we drink, the food we eat, and our policies moving forward.

Need to: further expand observing and modeling capabilities

and build stronger bridges within and between

communities Analysis by sectors – impact analysis by sector, and

scenarios by sectors. Better connect trends in aerosols and GHGs and

emissions (e.g., long term trends in BC/Sulfate). Enhanced activities in Mountain Regions of South and

Central Asia Explore/exploit more fully linkages between air

pollution and climate change