asian pmi update july 2013 surveys

8/22/2019 Asian PMI Update July 2013 Surveys

1/17

Asian PMIsurveys:

manufacturing

As of

July 2013


2/17

Executive summary: July surveys 2013East Asian manufacturing remained in contractionary territory in July, constrained by weakdemand inside and outside the region.

The majority of manufacturing exporters are now below the 50 threshold, with (yet to report

July) Singapore and Japan the key exceptions. Korea fell heavily to 47.2 from 49.4 previously,

having been a clear outperformer just three months ago. Taiwan gave away some its June

bounce in July, dropping from 49.5 to 48.6. Its 4mth average reading is now 49.0.

Japan remains a positive outlier among the North Asian group, but its six month streak of

consecutive improvement in the headline reading came to a close in July (52.3 in June versus50.7). The detail weakened appreciably.

Indian manufacturing is recessed: the output index has been sub 50 for 3 months and new

orders for two. The respective full sample averages for those two series are 58.2 and 59.5.

The stagflation proxy deteriorated, with output prices rising 2.5pts against 0.7pts for output.

The Indonesian survey was softer than the May and June editions, with the headline losing

ground, and the forward looking aspects of the detail quite weak. A material step down infuture output is predicted by the decelerating order flow, and now increasing inventories as

well. Vietnams headline reading improved to 48.5 from 46.4, but the quality of the detail fell

away sharply.

Note that we dealt with China in an earlier missive, but we have included Chinese charts in

the pack for reference purposes.

Sydney time, Singapore is out at 23:30; and Hong Kong is out next week.


3/17

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Apr-04 Apr-06 Apr-08 Apr-10 Apr-12

indexindex

Korea Taiwan

Japan ChinaSingapore HK

Headline manufacturing PMIs

ex HK, which is a composite.

Source: Markit.

The Asian supply chain: headline PMIs


4/17

0.5

0.60.7

0.8

0.9

1.01.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

0.5

0.60.7

0.8

0.9

1.01.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5


indexindex

Korea Taiwan

Japan China

Singapore HK

Manufacturing new orders to

inventories ratios ex HK, which

is a composite. Source: Markit.

The Asian supply chain: orders-inventories


5/17

0.5

1.0

1.5

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

indexindex

Headline (lhs)

New orders (lhs)

Production (lhs)

New orders to inventory ratio (rhs) Sources: Markit, Westpac Economics.

Chinas manufacturing PMI: Markit-HSBC


6/17

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

indexindex

Order backlog

New orders

New export ordersSources: Markit, Westpac Economics.

Chinas manufacturing PMI: orders


7/17

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.11.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

35

40

45

50

5560

65

70

75

Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12

ratioindex

Production (lhs)

Headline (lhs)

Orders to inventories (rhs) Sources: Markit.

Indias manufacturing PMI


8/17

35

40

45

50

5560

65

70

75

35

40

45

50

5560

65

70

75


ratioindex

New orders

New export orders

Backlogs of work Sources: Markit.

Indias manufacturing PMI: orders


9/17

0.3

0.40.5

0.6

0.7

0.80.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13

ratioindex

Headline (lhs)

Production (lhs)

Orders to inventories (rhs)

Sources: Markit.

Japans manufacturing PMI


10/17

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


ratioindex

New orders

New export orders

Backlogs of workSources: Markit.

Japans manufacturing PMI: orders


11/17

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75


ratioindex

Headline (lhs)

Production (lhs)

Orders to inventories (rhs)

Sources: Markit.

Koreas manufacturing PMI


12/17

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70


ratioindexNew orders

New export orders

Backlogs of work

Sources: Markit.

Koreas manufacturing PMI: orders


13/17

0.5

0.60.7

0.8

0.9

1.01.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

10

20

30

40

5060

70

80

90

Apr-04 Oct-05 Apr-07 Oct-08 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-13

ratioindex

Headline (lhs)

Production (lhs)

Orders to inventories (rhs)Sources: Markit.

Taiwans manufacturing PMI


14/17

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


ratioindex

New orders

New export orders

Backlogs of workSources: Markit.

Taiwans manufacturing PMI: orders


15/17

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

35

40

45

50

55

60

65


ratioindex

Headline (lhs)

Output (lhs)

Electronics headline (lhs)

Orders to inventories (rhs)Source: Markit.

July not yet available

Singapores manufacturing PMI


16/17

0.5

0.60.7

0.8

0.9

1.01.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

30

40

50

60

70


ratioindex

Headline (lhs)

Production (lhs)

New orders from China (lhs)

Orders to inventories (rhs)Sources: Markit.

July not yet available

Hong Kongs composite PMI


17/17

40

45

50

55

60

65

40

45

50

55

60

65


indexindexSingapore

Vietnam

Indonesia

Headline manufacturingPMIs. Source: Markit.

ASEAN manufacturing

asian pmi update july 2013 surveys

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