assessing iranian security capabilities: the case of the green movement catino
TRANSCRIPT
Assessing Iranian
Security
Capabilities:
The Case of the
Green Movement
Protests, 2009-
2011
Martin Scott Catino, Ph.D.
American Military University
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this presentation
are completely my own and do not
necessarily represent the views of
American Military University or any
other organization associated with the
presenter/author.
What Was the Green Movement?
The Most Serious Challenge to the regime
since the Islamic Revolution of 1979
Sheer numbers: millions?
Penetration of Tehran:
Government, economic, and
population hub
Decentralization: spontaneity;
fluidity; and agility
Ideology: deep-seated
antipathy to the regime
Durability? 2009 to 2011Protests of the June 2009 Presidential Elections
Research Question?
What role did the Iranian security
forces play in the defeat and
degradation of the Green Movement?
Thesis
This paper will assert that the defeat of the Green Movement
occurred as a result of more than “brutal crackdowns” by Iranian
security forces. Rather, the Iranian regime demonstrated strategic
security capabilities including cohesive institutional backing of the
state, comprehensive operational skills, mass tactical ground
support, and ideological strength exploited by Iran’s senior
leadership, which effectively mobilized large segments of Iran’s
population against the reformers. Moreover, the potency, depth,
range, and reach of Iran’s security forces indicated a preponderance
of power over the opposition, an advantage not likely to diminish in
the short and medium terms.
Khamenei and Strategic Leadership
Effective Counter
Narrative
Isolation of protest
leaders
Crisis management
Engagement of
institutional leadership
Institutional Support: The Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps
Effective Organizational
Building and supporting
Subordination to regime
Operability and ideological
zeal
Defection: A sign of
strength
Strategic Security Operations
Responsiveness and
Continuity of operations
Interdicting Green
Movement senior
leadership
Information Dominance
Interdiction of mass
protests with mass
ground support
The infamous “plainclothes police”
The Basij Area control; counter
organization
Force multiplier
Ideological structure
Intelligence collection
Economic and logistic
asset
Mechanism of core
political survival
Defeat or What does defeat look like?
Degraded ability to lead, organize,
and mobilize the opposition
Failure to achieve considerable
foreign support
Inability to utilize the human and
geographical terrain
Inability to influence the
government
Inability to degrade, deny, or
defeat the security apparatus of the
regime
From Summary to Conclusion
The Islamic Republic of Iran possesses strong state and security
structures able to withstand severe opposition.
The Islamic Republic is likely to resist effectively similar political
challenges it faces in the near and medium terms.
The tactics of civil disobedience used by the opposition are likely
to prove ineffective against a regime which possesses strong
security capabilities operating effectively across broad
geographical areas of Iran and with significant mass support.
The regime’s ability to anticipate, organize, and posture against
“soft power” threats is one of its striking features or capabilities.
Thank You
