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Copyright © 2019 Boeing. All rights reserved. BOEING PROPRIETARY

September 2019

Andrew Hall, Director, Data Science

Assessing the Benefits of Advanced Analytics on

Maintenance Processes and Costs

Copyright © 2019 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Agree or Disagree?

The goal of predictive maintenance is to prevent AOGs.

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• Assessing Unscheduled Maintenance Costs

• Predictive Alerting

• Cost Effectiveness of Predictive Alerting

• Combining Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance

• The Benefits of Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance

Agenda







Agenda


Flight

Disruption

Component

Repair

Maintenance

Productivity

Engineering

Costs

Repair/replace

Repair cycle time

Over/under labor

No prep time

Inspections

Tracking

Disruption costs

Customer loyalty

Assessing Unscheduled Maintenance Costs

Component

Logistics

AOG shipping

Holding costs


The Primary Assertion

The application of

predictive and prescriptive

maintenance capabilities

will optimize many

categories of maintenance

cost, without compromising

operational performance or

passenger experience.







Agenda

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8

Engineer

Relevant historical data → Identify features & models → Validated alert logic

Data

Scientist

+

Developing a Predictive Alert Algorithm


Predictive Maintenance is a “Team Sport”

Expert KnowledgePhysics / MBEReview of the findings

OEMExpertise

Machine Learning Scaled Validation

Data Infrastructure

DataScience& Tech

Predictive Maintenance

Success Smooth FlowsSmart DeploymentUrgent when neededRepair Cost Mgmt

ComponentLogistics

Data acquisition Operations Context

Planning Prioritization

Tech Ops

Asset Productivity

Efficient Maintenance


Aug

2018

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

2019

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Air Cycle

Machine

Nose Wheel

Veering Spoiler PCU

Valve

CAC Check

ValveFuel Manifold

Cracking

CRU Clogging

Wing Tip Light

PECs

Pump

Advanced Alerts are Scaling


OEM KnowledgeValidated Machine

Learning

Prognostic-Driven

Action

Example: 787 Air Cycle Machine (ACM) Predictive Alert


12

Achieving Flow in Line Maintenance – ACM example

Predictive

Insights

Proactive

Plans

Information

Action

Action







Agenda


14

Engineer or

Ops CenterMaintainer

Predictive Condition → Decision Support → Optimized Actions

Predictive Alerts Lead to Maintenance Optimization

Alerting

Software

+

Other Boeing

Applications


• Imagine a ‘perfect’ alert

• Trade-off between precision

and recall, given horizon

• Costs of NFF versus cost of

Avoidable Unscheduled

Removal

• Ability-to-act is key

• Confidence in a specific

prediction

Assessing the Effectiveness of a Predictive Alert

Precision Recall

Percentage of

predictions that

are correct

Percentage of

actual events

predicted

No Fault Found

Costs

Avoidable

Unscheduled

Maintenance Cost

Vs







Agenda


Decision Model for Maintenance Action

Diagram Source:

MIT Sloan Management Review: Spring 2017 Issue

Ajay Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans, and Avi Goldfarb

Judgment required to assess fix

effectiveness and backlog of work Action space defined by

schedule and resources

(e.g. part availability)

Prescriptive Maintenance combines

predictive alerting with resource planning

and maintenance decision support


Combining Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance

Program

Flight Schedule Labor

Inventory

Predictive Alerts

Planning Decision Support







Agenda


Flight

DisruptionComponent

Repair

Maintenance

ProductivityEngineering

Costs

The Value of Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance

Component

Logistics

Saves / avoided

Disruptions

Increased

utilization &

revenue potential

Reduced AOG

logistics costs

Reduced

holding costs

Avoid spot buys

Reduced repair

cost

Smoothed

repair cycle

time

Balance labor

supply and

demand

Lead time for

job preparation

Reduced

investigations

Prioritized mod

campaigns


OPERATE WITH CONFIDENCE

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