assessing the cumulative effect of indcsassessing the cumulative effect of indcs implications of...
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Assessing the cumulative effect of INDCs Implications of Paris Workshop Spring 2016 Markus Hagemann, 03rd of May 2016, Maryland
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Overview
1. Determining national emission pathways
2. Aggregating to global emission pathways
3. Moving forward
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Assessing national pathways 1 – Current Policy Scenarios
Aspect Varia,ons/Examples Challengesinquan,fica,on
Whatisimplementedandshouldbeconsidered?
Targetsvs.Policies;implementa?onbarriers
Whattoinclude;mightalsovarylargelybycountry
Quan?fyingpolicieswithoutaquan?ta?vetarget
Pricepolicies(Feed–intarriffs),standards(car,buildings)
Es?mateemissionimpact
Policydiversity ScaMeredpolicies,statevsna?onalpolicies
Requiredetailedanalysis
Separateoutothertrends Fuelpricetrends,markettrends Mighthavenega?veorposi?veimpactonresult6/28/16 3
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Assessing national pathways 2 – Pledges/ INDCs
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Aspect Varia,ons/Examples Challengesinquan,fica,on Relevance
Incompletecoverage Sectorsnotcovered Emissiones?matesrangewidely(e.g.interna?onalavia?on)
INDCsmiss8%ofglobalemissions
Uncertainprojec?ons Business-as-usual/referencescenarios,intensity
Whenscenariosundefinedprojec?onsdifferlargely
75INDCs
Non-GHGmetricsintargets REtargets,intensitytargets Datanotprovided 8INDCs(incl.ChinaandIndia)
Landuserelatedemissions Accoun?ngvs.Includedirectly
Unspecifiedaccoun?ngrules
Historicalemissions DifferentGWPs,GTPs;datasources
Sourcesvary,metricstotranslateGHGintoCO2evary
Source:Rogelijetal.Forthcoming
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Assessing national pathways 3 – Adequacy - Fairness
" Challenges " Harmonizing studies " Grouping approaches " Defining Ranges
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Aggregating global pathways
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Aspect Varia,ons/Examples Challengesinquan,fica,on
Countrycoverage Varyingcoverageofanalysis CountrieswithoutINDCs,toomanycountriestoquanigy
Samechallengesaswithna?onalINDCS
Source:Rogelijetal.Forthcoming
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Aggregating global pathways – extending beyond 2030
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Outlook – INDC ambition
Signs that INDCs of countries covering relevant emissions might overachieve targets
• Major emitter conservative in INDC – current policies already reach or surpass INDCs(China/ India)
• Important market trends have surpassed our expectation (RE) – other might follow (Transport)
• Subnational actions go beyond INDCs but are not accounted yet (see next slide)
• Co-benefits drive emission reductions at a large scale
HOWEVER small developing countries need significant support to reach INDCs
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Fourther reading/ sources
" www.Climateactiontracker.org " Fekete, H., Roelfsema, M., Höhne, N., den Elzen, M., Forsell, N., &
Becerra, S. (2015). Impacts of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas emissions. NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
" Rogelj et al paper (forthcoming) Perspective : Paris Agreement climate proposals need boost to keep warming well below 2 ° C
" Oeko Insitute et al. (forthcoming) Non-UNFCCC mitigation initiatives – Project for the German Environmental Agency (UBA)
" Cronin, C., Menon, S., Monteith, S., Plechaty, D., Hagemann, M., Höhne, N., … Sferra, F. (2015). Faster and Cleaner - Decarbonisation in the power and transport sectors is surpassing predictions and offering hope for limiting warming to 2°C. San Francisco, USA. Retrieved from https://newclimateinstitute.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/faster-cleaner-decarbonization-in-the-power-transport-sectors.pdf
" Day, T., Höhne, N., & Gonzales, S. (2015). Assessing the missed benefits of countries’ national contributions. Cologne. Retrieved from http://newclimate.org/2015/03/27/indc-cobenefits/
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Thank you for your attention! Contact details:
Markus Hagemann
T +49 (0) 221 99983304
M +1 (416) 632 7728
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BACKUP SLIDES
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Outlook - How can non-state actors help increase ambiton
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