assessing the economic consequences of sustainability in

8/3/2019 Assessing the Economic Consequences of Sustainability In

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ELSEVIER Agriculture, Ecosy stems and Environm ent 64 (199 7) 95-102A g r i c u l t u r eE c o s y s t e m s &E n w r o n m e n t

Assess ing the economic consequences o f sus ta inabi l i ty inagriculture

J . P . G . W e b s t e r 1Farm Business U nit , Wye College (Universi ty of London), Ashford TN25 5A H, U K

A b s t r a c t

In many deve loped economies , t he ma in ly non-agr i cu l tu ra l popu la t ion shows conce rn fo r t he management o f t he ru ra lenviron men t and there is increasing interest in the con cept of susta inabi li ty . Publ ic pressure manifests i t se l f in m any w ays,including the deman d for adjustments to agricul tura l support systems wh ich may include e lements of cross-com pliance ormodi f i ca t ions to t he econo mics o f f a rm ing sys t ems, which in tu rn l ead manage rs t o reduce inpu ts . Be t t e r knowledge on thepa r t o f such manage rs i n re l a t ion to t he complex i t i e s o f t he env i ronmenta l management o f t he i r c rops may a l low them tomainta in gross margins a t reduced levels of inputs and yie lds. Such changes, whi lst mainta ining farm incomes, may reducethe demand for inputs, including labour . Research resul ts tend to be locat ion-specif ic so, wi th highly var iable ecologiesacross regions, i t i s very di ff icul t to forecast the regional econ om ic impacts o f the ado pt ion of susta inable systems. At thenat ional level , aggreg ate reduct ions in the product ion of som e comm odi t ies would assist in the achievemen t of the GA TTagreem ents to reduce subsidised exports . There m ay a lso be changes to the compa rat ive advantage o f di fferent regions acrossEurope. 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.Keywords: Sustainability; Agriculture; Rural; Farm system s; Econ omy

1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n

T h e c a s e f o r a m o v e f r o m e x i s t i n g f a r m i n g s y s -t e m s t o ' s u s t a i n a b l e ' f a r m i n g s y s t e m s i s b a s e d o n t h ea r g u m e n t t h a t , i n t h e l o n g r u n , c u r r e n t s y s t e m s a r el e a d i n g t o a n u n d e s i r a b l e r u r a l e n v i r o n m e n t i n s o c i a l ,e c o n o m i c a n d e c o l o g i c a l s e n s e s a n d t h u s t o a d e c l i n ei n t h e u ti li t y o f a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e m e m b e r o f s o c i e t y( T u r n e r , 1 9 9 3 ). A n u n d e s i r a b l e s o c i a l e n v i r o n m e n tb e c a u s e f e w e r p e o p l e a r e e m p l o y e d i n a g r i c u l t u r e ,m o r e p e o p l e l i v i n g i n r u r a l a r e a s h a v e l e s s t o d o w i t h

i Tel.: 01233 812401; fax: 01233 813498; e-mail:[email protected].

a g r i c u l t u r e a n d t h o s e w h o d o r e m a i n a r e s o c i a l l yi s o l a t e d a n d s u f f e r a d e c l i n e i n r u r a l s o c i a l s e r v i c e s( P r e tt y a n d H o w e s , 1 9 9 3) . T h e e c o n o m i c p r o b le m sa r i se f r o m t h e s u p p o r t e d n a t u r e o f a g r ic u l t u r e w i t hd e c l i n i n g f a r m i n c o m e s r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r s e c t i o n s i ns o c i e t y , d u e t o o v e r p r o d u c t i o n w i t h c o n s e q u e n t d e -m a n d s f o r s u p p o r t t o c o u n t e r p r i c e f a l l s , l e a d i n g t o aC o m m o n A g r i c u lt u r al P o l i c y ( C A P ) w h i c h re m a i n so f m a j o r s i g n i fi c a n ce t o th e E u r o p e a n U n i o n ( E U )b u d g e t . T h e e c o l o g i c a l p r o b l e m s a r i s e f r o m t h e c o n -t r ib u t i o n t o p o l l u t i o n o f th e h e a v y u s e o f p e s ti c i d e sa n d f e r t i l i s e r s , a n d f r o m t h e s p e c i a l i s e d n a t u r e o fm u c h o f a n i m a l a g r i c u l t u re l e a d i n g t o p r o b l e m s o fd i s p o s a l o f n a t u r a l w a s t e s a n d t h e l o s s o f d i v e r s i f i edh a b i t a t f o r n at u r a l p r e d a t io n ( H o d g e a n d D u n n , 1 9 9 2 ).

0167-8809/97/$17.00 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.P II S 0 1 6 7 - 8 8 0 9 ( 9 7 ) 0 0 0 2 7 - 3


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9 6 J .P .G. Webs ter~Agr icu l ture , Ecosys tems and Env ironment 64 (1997) 95 -102

An impl ied theme in the sus ta inabi l i ty l i t e ra turea ppe a r s t o be t he d i s t i nc t i on be t we e n c l o se d sys t e msve rsus ope n sys t e ms i n a g r i c u l t u ra l p roduc t i on . S us -t a i na b il i ty a ppe a r s t o i nvo l ve a mov e t owa rds a morec l o s e d s y s t e m w h e r e b y b y p r o d u c t s a r e c o n s u m e d o nt he f a rm a nd t he ma rke t on l y i n t rude s a t t he f i na lp roduc t s t a ge . Th i s wou l d e n t a i l a d i ve r s i f i e d , mi xe dl i ve s t oc k a nd c ropp i ng sys t e m whose a rc he t ypewou l d be t he subs i s t e nc e fa rme r oc c a s i ona l l y s e l l i ngf o o d p r o d u c t s i n o r d e r t o g a i n m o n e y t o p a y f o r t o o lso r s c hoo l i ng fo r h i s c h i l d re n . At t he o t he r e x t re me ,there i s the spec ia l i s t producer se l l ing only a s inglep roduc t , a l l o f whose i npu t s a re bough t i n t he ma r -k e t . M o d e m t e c h n o l o g y n o w p e r m i t s e c o n o m i e s o fsc a l e i n p roduc t i on a nd t r a nspor t be t we e n re g i ons .Thus t he c ompa ra t i ve a dva n t a ge o f pa r t i c u l a r l oc a l i -t i e s i s e nha nc e d , a l l owi ng spe c i a l i s a t i on a nd c onc e n -t ra t ion to take p lace .

Bu t i t i s ne c e s sa ry t o be more spe c i f i c a bou t t hec ha ra c t e r i st i c s o f sus t a ina b l e sys t e ms ( Jone s , 1993)be fo re d i s c us s i ng t he i mp a c t s o f t he i r a dop t i on . P re t t ya n d H o w e s ( 1 9 9 3 ) r e v i e w e d m u c h o f t h e s u s ta i na b il -i t y l i t e ra t u re a nd de f i ne d i t i n t e rms o f f i ve goa l s .The se i nc l ude d1 . a more t ho rough i nc o rpo ra t i on o f na t u ra l p ro -

c e s se s i n t o t he a g r i c u l t u ra l p roduc t i on p roc e s se s ;2 . a r e duc t i on i n t he u se o f o f f - f a rm i npu t s ;3 . a g re a t e r u se o f the b i o l og i c a l a nd ge ne t i c po t e n -

t ia l of p lant and anim al spec ies ;4 . a n i mprov e m e n t i n t he ma t c h be t we e n c rop p i ng

pa t t e rns a nd phys i c a l l i m i t a t i ons t o e nsu re l ong -t e rm sus t a ina b i l i ty o f c u r re n t p rodu c t i on l e ve l s ;

5 . p ro f i t a b l e , who l e - fa rm ma na ge me n t t o c onse rveso i l , wa s t e , e ne rgy a nd b i o l og i c a l r e sou rc e s .

The y a l so e mpha s i s e d t ha t t he y re ga rde d sus t a i na b l esys t e ms a s a ' l oose l y de f i ne d ' m i dd l e g round be -t we e n "o rga n i c a g r i c u l t u re a nd h i gh i npu t i ndus t r i -a l i s e d a g r i c u l t u re " (P re t t y a nd Howe s , 1993 , p . 8 ) .

2 . Ma king t he co ncept s o pera t io na lP r e t ty a n d H o w e s a l so m a k e a n u m b e r o f s u g g e s-

t i ons a s to w ha t c ha nge s m i gh t t a ke p l a c e i n f a rmi ngsys t e ms a nd p ra c t i c e s i n o rde r t o fu r t he r sus t a i na b il -i t y . Husba ndry c ha nge s i nc l ude re duc t i ons i n pe s t i -c i de a nd fe r t i li s e r u se by be t t e r t a rge t e d a pp l i c a ti onsa n d i m p r o v e d e c o l o g i c a l m a n a g e m e n t o f b o t h t h ec roppe d a nd t he non-c roppe d a re a s . S ys t e ms c ha nge si nc l ude a d i ve r s i f i c a ti on o f c rops wi t h i n a ra b l e ro t a -t i ons p lus a r e t u rn t o more m i xe d l i ve s t oc k a ndc ropp i ng sys t e ms . S om e o f t he i r sugge s t i ons a rel i s ted in Table 1 .

A d i f f i c u l t y wi t h sugg e s t i ons o f t h i s t ype i s t ha t iti s e a sy t o c on fuse me a ns a nd e nds . Are t he se p ra c -t i c e s t o be r e ga rde d a s e nds i n t he mse l ve s? I f so ,how doe s one know whe n a ' s u s t a i na b l e ' sy s t e m i sa c h i e v e d ? W h o m a k e s t h e j u d g e m e n t ? W h a t i n d ic a -t o r s a re t o be u se d a nd wha t t r a de o f f s be t we e n t he ma re a c c e p t a b l e ? Appropr i a t e f r a me works fo r de ve l op -i ng suc h i nd i c a t o r s mi gh t i nc l ude Log i c a l F ra me -work Ana l ys i s (Co l e ma n , 1987) i n wh i c h e nds a rec la r i f ied , means a re ident i f ied and ta rge ts se t . Wi th-ou t a g re e m e n t on i nd i c at o r s , i t w i ll su re l y be d i f f i c u l tt o ma ke t he de s i r e d p rog re s s . S ome ha ve a rgue d , fo re xa mp l e , t ha t t he i n t e g ra t i on o f l i ve s t oc k i n t o a ra b l efa rmi ng sys t e ms re p re se n t s a move a wa y f rom sus -t a i na b i l i t y , s i nc e huma ns c onsumi ng c e re a l s d i r e c t l y

Table 1S o m e s u g g e s t e d c h a n g e s t o f a r m i n g s y s t e m s a n d p r a c t i c e s t o e n h a n c e s u s t a in a b i l it y ( a f te r P r e t t y a n d H o w e s , 1 9 93 )Changes to farm ing sys temsA d o p t d i v e r s i f ie d f a r m i n g s y s t e m s i n v o l v i n g b o t h c r o p s a n d l i v e s t o c kB a l a n c e i n t e n s i t y o f l i v e s t o c k p r o d u c t io n w i t h a r a b le a r e a f o r d i s p o s a l a n d u s e o f w a s t e sL e n g t h e n a n d d i v e r s i f y r o t a ti o n s t o i m p r o v e p e s t m a n a g e m e n t a n d s o i l f e r t il i ty a n d t h u s r e d u c e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r e x t er n a l i n p u t sChanges to husbando ' prac t icesR e d u c e p e s t i c i d e u s a g e b y b e i n g m o r e s e l e c t i v e; a d o p t In t e g r a t e d P e s t M a n a g e m e n tA d o p t p a t c h s p r a y i n g , b e e t l e b a n k s , w i l d f l o w e r s t ri p sUse na tu ra l p reda to rs ; c rop mix tu res ; re s i s tan t va r ie t ie s ; mul t i l ine va r ie t ie sI m p r o v e f e r t il i z e r e f f i c i e n c y ; t im i n g a n d p l a c e m e n t ; a d o p t g l o b a l p o s i t i o n i n g s y s t e m sIncorpora te legumes and ca tch c rops fo r ma in tenance o f so i l s tab i l i ty and fe r t i l i tyM a i n t a i n h e d g e s , c o p p i c e s a s w i n d b r e a k s , w i l d l i f e c o rr i d o r s a n d r e s e r v o i r s


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J.P.G. W ebster/Ag riculture, Ecosystems and Environment64 (1997) 95-10 2 97wou l d be m ore r e sou rc e e f f i c i e n t t ha t e a t i ng me a tp roduc e d by t he f e e d i ng t he s a me c e re a l s t o l i ve -s t oc k . De sp i t e t he d i f f ic u l t ie s , p rog re s s i s r e po r t e d byBr i ggs a nd Ha r r i son (1993) fo r Aus t ra l a s i a n c ond i -t i ons . P e a rc e (1993) de ba t e s some o f t he i s sue s fo rsus ta inabi l i ty indica tors a t the leve l of the na t iona le c o n o m y .

3 . A n e c o n o m i c f r a m e w o r k f o r f a r m s y s t e m sch an ges

I t i s pos s i b l e t o c a t e go r i s e t he se c ha nge s t owa rdssus t a i na b i l i t y i n t e rms o f t he i r e c onomi c c ha ra c t e r -ist ics (W hite et a l ., 1993).

whe n e x t e rna l l y pu rc ha se d i npu t s a re subs t i tu t e d byi n t e rna ll y g e ne ra t e d i npu ts .

In o rde r t o e s t i ma t e t he e c onomi c i mpa c t o f suc ha c ha nge , we ne e d t o know t he r a t e o f subs t i t u t i onbe t we e n t he t wo i npu t s fo r a g i ve n l e ve l o f ou t pu t .F o r e xa mpl e i n t he me c ha n i c a l we e d i ng c a se , i t i sc l e a r t ha t some re duc t i ons i n he rb i c i de s mi gh t r e l a -t i ve l y e a s i l y be subs t i t u t e d by me c ha n i c a l we e de rs .Bu t fu r t he r r e duc t i ons wou l d be c ome i nc re a s i ng l yd i f f ic u l t . The op t i ma l po i n t i s whe re t he e x t ra c os t o fmore me c ha n i sa t i on i s j u s t e qua l t o t he c os t s fo re -gone by re duc i ng t he u se o f he rb i c i de s , fo r s i mi l a rl e ve l s o f we e d c on t ro l .

3 .3. R e de s i gn o f c ropp i ng an d l i ue s toc k s y s te ms3.1 . Ef f ic iency changes leading to input reduc t ion

The se i nc l ude t he a dop t i on o f p ra c t i c e s wh i c hi nvo l ve a c ha nge i n t he u se o f a n i npu t wh i c h l e a dsto sus ta inabi l i ty ga ins . Reduc t ions in n i t rogen appl i -ca t ions thus g ive sus ta inabi l i ty ga ins i f n i t ra te leach-i ng i n t o g roundw a t e r o r runo f f i n t o wa t e rc ou rse s i sr e duc e d . I f ma i n t e na nc e o f p ro f i t a b i l i t y i s t he c r i t e -r ion , then a sus ta inabi l i ty prac t ice wi l l be adopted byfa rme rs so l ong a s t he va l ue o f t he r e duc t i on i n y i e l dis le ss than the cos t of the fe r t i l i se r saved.

The s a me p r i nc i p l e a pp l i e s t o t he a pp l i c a t i on o fpe s t i c i de s . W hi l s t t he r e l a t i onsh i p be t we e n pe s t i c i dei npu t s a nd y i e l d i s ve ry muc h more c ompl e x , i t i ss t i l l t rue tha t fa rmers wi l l adopt the prac t ice so longas gross margins a re mainta ined. I t i s c lea r tha tc l i ma t e a nd o t he r d i f f e re nc e s be t we e n re g i ons wi l la f fe c t t he a t t r a c t i ve ne s s o f t he se op t i ons , l e a d i ng t od i f fe re n t i a l a d j us t me n t s t o c ropp i ng sys t e ms a c ros sre g i ons (Da be row a nd Re i c he l de r fe r , 1988) .3.2 . Subs t i tu t ion be tween inputs

The se i nvo l ve t he r e p l a c e me n t o f one i npu t bya no t he r wi t h t he a i m o f i mprov i ng t he sus t a i na b i l i t yo f the f a rmi ng sy s t e m. Exa m pl e s mi gh t i nc l ude t heuse o f n i t roge n ge ne ra t e d by l e gume s wi t h i n a ro t a -t ion as a subs t i tu te for inorganic n i t rogen, or thesubs t i t u t i on o f me c ha n i c a l we e d i ng fo r t he u se o fhe rb i c i de s i n i n t e ns i ve ve ge t a b l e p roduc t i on . In ge n -e ra l i t may be a rgued tha t sus ta inabi l i ty i s inc reased

The re de s i gn o f sys t e ms i nvo l ve s t he a dd i t i on (o rless l ike ly in the sus ta inabi l i ty deba te ) the de le t ion ofp roduc t s o r c ha nge s i n e n t e rp r i s e s i z e wi t h i n t hefa rmi ng sys t e m. The op t i ma l p roduc t mi x fo r a f a rmis based on the ava i lable resources p lus the re la t ion-ships be tween the var ious produc ts . Sus ta inabi l i tyc lea r ly impl ies a reduc t ion in exte rna l inputs and ani nc re a se d re l i a nc e on t he i n t e r re l a t i onsh i ps be t we e nt h e p r o d u c t io n s y s t e m s o f a n u m b e r o f c o m m o d i t ie s .P os s i b il i ti e s i nc l ude t he i n t roduc t i on o f l e gume s i n t ot he ro t a ti on , t he u se o f d i ve r s i f i e d c rop a nd l i ve s t oc kfa rmi ng sys t e ms , a nd d i ve r s i f i c a t ion o f c ropp i ng sys -t e ms t o r e duc e pe s t p rob l e ms .

F or t he f a rme r , t he po i n t o f ma x i mum p ro f i t i swhe re t he r a t e o f subs t i t u t i on o f one p roduc t fo r t heother i s equa l to the ra t io of the produc t pr ices . Ino t he r words , whe re t he i nc re a se i n t o ta l g ros s ma rg i na r i si ng f rom i nc re a s ing t he a re a o f one c rop j u s te x t i ngu i she s t he c onse que n t r e duc t i on i n t o t a l g ros sma rg i n f rom t he o t he r c rop (Ba rna rd a nd Ni x , 1979 ,p. 38).

Th i s k i nd o f a na l ys i s c a n be u se d t o e xp l a i n t here a sons fo r spe c i a l i s a t i on whe re t he re a re i nc re a s i ngre t u rns t o s c a l e i n p roduc t i on . Gi ve n t he f i xe d c os ts t ruc t u re i nvo l ve d i n t he p roduc t i on o f mi l k ( l a bour ,f i xe d e qu i pme n t ) a nd i n t he p roduc t i on o f c e re a l s( labour , machinery) , i t i s c lea r tha t a fa rm of , say , 50ha wou l d f i nd i t d i f f i c u l t t o ope ra t e a d i ve r s i f i e dsys t e m p ro f i t a b l y . The re l a t i onsh i p be t we e n t he t woe n t e rp r i s e s i s suc h t ha t t he r e qu i re me n t o f r e sou rc e sfo r e ve n a sma l l da i ry e n t e rp r i s e wou l d s e r i ous l y


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9 8 J .P .G. We bs ter /A gr icu l tu re , Ecosys tems and Env ironment 64 (1997) 95-1 02

i mpe d e t he a b i l i t y t o c a r ry on a n e f f i c i e n t c ere a l se n t e rp r i se . In suc h a c a se , t he d i ve r s i f i e d f a rme rw o u l d p r o b a b l y h a v e t o e m p l o y c o n t r a c t o r s t o f a r mt he c e re a l a re a , thus i nc re a s i ng h i s e xp osu re t o e x t e r -na l inputs .

t we e n t he d i f f e re n t c rops , a s we l l a s pe s t / p r e d a t o rre l a t i onsh i ps unde r t he va r i ous pos s i b l e c ropp i ngc ombi na t i ons . I t s e e ms l i ke l y t ha t ob t a i n i ng t he da t awi l l be ne i t he r s t r a i gh t fo rwa rd no r c he a p e ve n g i ve nthe def in i t ion of appropria te sus ta inabi l i ty indica tors .

4. Progress in generating the required informa-tion4 . 1 . Da ta r e qu i re me n t s

The a bove t h re e -wa y c a t e go r i s a t i on a l so he l ps i nt he spe c i f i c a t i on o f t he t ype s o f da t a ne e de d fo r t hea na l ys i s o f c ha nge s t o t he f a rm sys t e m. In e a c h c a se ,da t a i s r e qu i re d wh i c h wi l l show how t he sugge s t e dsh i f t w i l l i mpa c t upon bo t h t he e c onomi c s a nd t hesus t a i na b i l i t y i nd i c a t o r s fo l l owi ng , o f c ou rse , t he i ra de qua t e de f i n i t i on . W he re i npu t e f f i c i e nc y cha nge sa re be i ng c ons i de re d , i t is ne c e s sa ry t o know how t heg ros s ma rg i n wi l l c ha nge , a nd wha t wi l l be t he e f fe c ton t he sus t a i na b i l i t y i nd i c a t o r s . W he n subs t i t u t i onc h a n g e s a r e b e in g c o n s i d e r e d , w e n e e d t o k n o w h o wt he c os t s o f p rod uc t i on wi l l c ha nge a nd t he i mpa c ton sus t a i na b i l i t y o f t he s i mu l t a ne ous c ha nge o f bo t hfa c t o r s . A l e s s ha rmfu l i npu t ma y be subs t i t u t e d i np l a c e o f a m o r e h a r m f u l o n e . K n o w l e d g e w i l l b ene e de d a bou t how t he c ha nge a f fe c t s t he pa r t i c u l a re c o l og i c a l su r round i ngs i n wh i c h t he c ha nge wi l lt a ke p l a c e . C l e a r l y t h i s wi l l va ry f rom l oc a l i t y t ol oc a l i t y , de pe nd i ng on so i l t ype , t opogra phy a ndo t he r f a c t o r s . F i na l l y , whe n t he r e de s i gn o f sys t e msi s be i ng c ons i de re d , t he me c ha n i sms o f t he i n t e ra c -t i ons be t we e n t he c rops i n t e rms o f t he sus t a ina b i l i tyi nd i c a t o r s ha s a l so t o be known . Th i s wi l l i nc l udek n o w l e d g e o f m i n e r a l b al a n c es o f N , P a n d K b e -

4 . 2 . Some e x pe r ime n ta l r e su l t s i n l ow inpu t agr i c u l -tu re

Ove r t he pa s t 15 ye a r s , t he Mi n i s t ry o f Agr i c u l -t u re , F i she r i e s a nd F ood (M AF F ) o f t he Un i t e dK i n g d o m ( U K ) , t o g e t h e r w i t h a n u m b e r o f c o l l a b o -ra t i ng a ge nc i e s a nd c ompa n i e s , ha s suppor t e d a ma -j o r s e t o f p r o g r a m m e s t o d e v e l o p f a r m i n g s y s t e m swhi c h , wh i l e r e ma i n i ng p ro f i t a b l e , s a fe gua rd t he e n -v i ronme n t a s f a r a s pos s i b l e . S i nc e muc h o f t hede ba t e ha s c onc e me d t he r e duc t i on o f po t e n t i a l l yharmful exte rna l inputs , i t i s not surpr i s ing tha t th i si s a n a re a on wh i c h e mpha s i s ha s be e n p l a c e d .

Ta b l e 2 l i st s f ive o f t he se p rog ra m me s w h i c h ha veof t e n be e n a i me d a t e l uc i da t i ng t he ' e c o l og i c a l ' i m-pa c t s o f mod i f i e d i npu t l e ve l s a s muc h a s t he i rprof i tabi l i ty . As t ime has passed, and as sc ient i s t sha ve i nc re a s i ng l y r e c ogn i se d t he po t e n t i a l fo r sys t e mc ha nge s r a t he r t ha n s i mp l e i npu t r e duc t i on , t he moveha s be e n t owa rds sys t e m re de s i gn i n t he fo rm o f t hema n i pu l a t i on o f ro t a t i ons o r t he i n t roduc t i on o f ne wcrops .

But the re i s s t i l l a long way to go. I t has to bere c ogn i se d t ha t , a s f a r a s e f f i c i e nc y c ha nge s a rec onc e me d , a c on t i nuous r e l a t i onsh i p e x i s t s be t we e ninput leve ls , y ie lds and sus ta inabi l i ty indica tors .W hi l s t t wo d i s c re t e l e ve l s , suc h a s ' c u r re n t ' a nd' l ow ' , w i l l g i ve some i de a a s t o whe re t he c u rvemi gh t be , i t w i l l no t be muc h he l p i n l oc a t i ng a nop t i m um t ra de -o f f be t w e e n sus t a i na b i li t y i nd i c a to r s

T a b l e 2S o m e e x p e r i m e n t s t o i n v e s t i g a te c h a n g e s i n a r a b l e a g r i c u l t ur eE x p e r i m e n t D a t e T r e a t m e n t T r e a t m e n t l e v e l sB O X W O R T H 1 9 8 3 - 1 9 8 9 P e s t ic i d e l e v el s ' m i n i m u m ' ' s u p e r v is e d ' ' f u ll i n s ur a n c e'S C A R A B 1 9 9 0 - P e s t i c i d e l e v e l s ' c u r r e n t ' ' l o w 'T A L I S M A N 1 9 9 0 - R o t a ti o n s ' s t a nd a r d ' ' g r e e n 'L I F E 1 9 9 0 - R o t a t i o n s ' c o n v e n t i o n a l ' ' i n t e g r a t e d '

I n p u t l e v e l s ' s t a n d a r d ' ' l o w 'L i n k - I F S 1 9 9 2 - R o t a t i o n s ' c o n v e n t i o n a l ' ' i n t e g r a t e d 'Sources : Coo per (1990), G re ig Sm ith e t a l . (1992) , P rew (1992) , Jo rdan and Hu tcheo n (1993) .


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J .P .G. Webs ter~Agr icu l ture , Ecosys tems and Env ironm ent 64 (1997) 95-1 02 99

a nd y i e ld . L ike w i se , i de a s a bou t f e a s ib l e r o t a t i onsa r e c on t inuous ly c ha ng ing ( Jo r da n a nd H utc he on ,1993) so , by the t ime the resul t s a re ava i lable , newk n o w l e d g e m a y h a v e o u t d a t e d t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l r o ta -t i ons . N e ve r the l e s s , suc h e xpe r ime n t s a r e impor t a n tbe c a use t he y c a n p r ov ide t he ba s i c s c i e nc e w hic hunde r l i e s t he c omple x i n t e r a c t i ons be tw e e n c r opsa nd w hic h i s e s se n t ia l i n t he de v e lopm e nt o f sus ta in -abi l i ty indica tors . Once this knowledge i s ava i lable ,p r ogr e s s i n t he r e de s ign o f sys t e ms c a n be spe e de dup by a dop t ing a mode l l i ng a ppr oa c h .

5 . C o n s e q u e n c e s o f t h e a d o p t i o n o f s u s t a i n a b l ef a r m i n g s y s t e m s

T h e p a p e r n o w a d d r e s s e s t h e l i k e l y e c o n o m i cimpa c t o f t he a dop t ion o f sus t a ina b l e sys t e ms a t t heind iv idua l f a r m l e ve l , t he r e g iona l l e ve l a nd t hena t iona l o r supr a na t iona l l e ve l . For va r ious r e a sons i ti s d i f f i c u l t t o ma ke a ny q ua n t i t a t ive e s t ima te s , bu t i tma y be poss ib l e t o i de n t i f y t he ge ne r a l d i r e c t i ons o fc ha nge a nd t o i nd i c a t e t hose f a c to r s w hic h a ppe a rl i ke ly t o be impor t a n t i n de t e r min ing t he ma gn i tudeof c ha nge .5.1. The farm level

T he ma jo r de t e r mina n t s o f c ha nge a t t he f a r mle ve l w i l l be t he e x i s t i ng f a r m sys t e m; t he so i l t ype ,c l ima te a nd t opogr a phy ; a nd t he su r r ound ing na tu r a le c o l o g y . W h e r e f a r m i n g s y s t e m s a l r e a d y d e p e n d o na d ive r s i f i e d c r op a nd l i ve s toc k c om ple x , a nd w he r ethere i s in tegra t ion of na tura l processes , there wi l l bel e s s ne e d f o r c ha nge . H o w e v e r , w he r e a h igh i npu tsys t e m invo lv ing r e l a t i ve ly f e w e n t e r p r i s e s ha s de -v e l o p e d , m a j o r c h a n g e m a y w e l l b e n e e d e d i f t heobjec t ives l i s ted ear l ie r a re to be achieved. I t i sdi f f icul t to see , for exam ple , la rge sca le a rable uni t si n t h e E a s t e r n C o u n t i e s o f t h e U K m a k i n g m a j o ra l t e r a t i ons i nc lud ing t he i nc or por a t i on o f l i ve s toc kin to t he sys t e m w i thou t a c ons ide r a b l e impa c t onf a r m i n c o m e . L i k e w i s e , ch a n g e s w o u l d h a v e t o o c c u rin t he s t r uc tu r e o f p ig p r oduc t ion i f l imi t s w e r e t o bep l a c e d on t he r a t i o o f a n ima l s t o he c t a r e s o f a r a b l el a nd a s i n the N e the r l a nds o r D e n ma r k . W hi l s t da i ry -ing i n t he w e s t o f E ng la nd migh t be r e ga r de d a sr e l a t i ve ly sus t a ina b l e , s t oc k ing r a t e s w ou ld ha ve t o

dec l ine i f inorganic fe r t i l i se r appl ica t ions were to ber e duc e d . A n in it i al c onc lus ion t he r e f o r e mus t be t ha tthere wi l l be considerable var iabi l i ty in impac t , de-pe nd ing upon the e x i s t i ng c ond i t i ons i n a pa r t i c u l a rloca l i ty .

I t i s impor t a n t t o r e me mbe r t ha t , o the r t h ingsbe ing e qua l , t he a dop t ion o f t he se c ha nge s w i l lusua l l y l e a d t o some los s o f i nc ome f o r f a r me r s . T h i si s be c a use , i f i t w e r e o the r w i se , f a r me r s w ou ld a l -r e a d y h a v e a d o p t e d t h e r e c o m m e n d e d p r a c t i c e s a n dthe r e w ould be no ne e d f o r c ha nge . Bu t i n p r a c t i c ethe r e a r e tw o ma jo r va r i a b l e s w hic h ne e d no t r e ma inconstant .

T he f i r s t i s t he l e ve l o f know le dge o f t he f a r me ra nd the se c ond i s t he s e t o f po l i c i e s unde r w hic hfarmers opera te . I f f a rmers a re shown tha t sus ta in-abi l i ty can ac tua l ly increase the i r incomes a lbe i t a tt he c os t o f impr o ve d ma n a ge r i a l sk i ll s , t he n t he y a r el ike ly to adopt i t s prac t ices . But i f there remains ac os t t o t he a dop t ion o f t he se p r a c t i c e s , e ve n t houghthe r e a re pub l i c be ne f i t s , w e c a n e x pe c t f a r me r s t o beless enthusias t ic . This appl ies par t icula r ly to thosef a r me r s w ho a r e a l r e a dy unde r f i na nc i a l p r e s su r e sf r om, f o r e xa mple , t he sma l l s i z e o f t he i r ope r a t i onor t he l a c k o f o the r oppor tun i t i e s f o r ge ne r a t i ngf a mi ly i nc ome ( G a sson , 1988) .

T he se c ond va r i a b l e i s t he s e t o f suppor t po l i c i e sa d o p t e d b y g o v e r n m e n t . T h e r e f o r m o f t h e C A P i n1992 invo lve d a move f r om pr oduc t p r i c e suppor t t oa r e a pa yme nt s , w i th t he a im o f ma in t a in ing i nc ome sw hi l s t r e duc ing p r oduc t ion v i a t he se t - a s ide p r ov i -s ions . A c lear impl ica t ion has been tha t , wi th re -duc e d p r oduc t p r i c e s , t he ma r g ina l r e ve nue f r om thel a s t un i t o f va r i a b l e i npu t w i l l be r e duc e d , a nd sofarmers a re l ike ly to reduce the leve l of inputs . I t i stoo ear ly to quant i fy th is e f fec t , s ince aggrega te useof i npu t s o f f e r t i l i s e r a nd pe s t i c ide s ha d be e n de -creas ing s ince a round 1988. In addi t ion, th is e f fec t isc onf o und e d by r e duc t ions i n i npu t p r i c e s , s i nc e i t ist he r a t io o f p r oduc t p r i c e t o i npu t p r i c e w hic h de t e r -mine s t he op t ima l e c onomic dosa ge . T a b le 3 show show pe s t i c ide use on w he a t ha s be e n de c l i n ing ove rthe pa s t de c a de . T he de va lua t i on o f t he pound a ga ins tthe ecu in 1992, r esul t ing in higher than ant ic ipa tedpr oduc t p r i c e s a nd a r e a pa yme nt s , ha s f u r the r c on-f ound e d the e f f e c t o f the r e f o r m. A f u r the r e nv i ron-me nta l impa c t o f t he 1992 r e f o r ms ma y be t he' e x t e ns ive ma r g in e f f e c t ' by w hic h t he pe r - he c t a r e


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100 J.P. G. Webster~Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 64 (1997) 95-102T a b l e 3P e s t i c i d e a p p l i c a t io n o n w h e a t 1 9 8 2 - 1 9 9 2 ( k g a . i . h a - I )Y e a r F u n g i c i d e H e r b i c id e M o l l u s c i c i d e S e e d T o t a l

t r e a t m e n t1 9 8 2 1 .3 7 5 . 8 0 N / A 0 . 0 6 7 . 4 61 9 8 8 1 . 6 4 4 . 1 6 0 . 0 6 0 . 0 0 6 . 0 11 9 9 0 1 . 3 8 2 . 7 7 0 , 0 2 0 . 0 2 4 . 3 01992 1 .33 2 .20 0 .08 0 .05 3 .66S o u r ce : P e s t i c id e U s a g e S u r v e y s ; M A F F .

area paym en ts m ake i t m ore a t t r ac t ive to r e ta inm arg ina l l and in p roduc t ion , desp i te the r educedpr ices . Such m arg ina l l and m ay o f ten be o f h ighenv i ronm en ta l va lue .

T hus , under a ' no po l icy change ' s cenar io , andw i t h o u t s o m e i n v e s t m e n t in t h e a g r o n o m i c a n d m a n -ager ial ski l ls of farmers , the impact of sus tainabi l i tyupon f a rm incom es i s l ike ly to be qu i te va r iab le bu tgeneral ly negat ive. Cain et a l . (1995) , inves t igat ingthe lo s s o f p ro f i t s consequen t upon the m anda to ryadop t ion o f spec i f i ed p rac t ices , conf i rm th i s fo r som eUK s i tua t ions. T h i s pos i t ion i s accep ted by a num bero f E U m em ber s t a tes wh ich have des igned po l ic iesto suppor t the convers ion to sus tainable agr icul tureunder the Accom pany ing Measures o f the 1992 r e -fo rm s .5.2 . The local and regional level

Sim i la r f ac to r s a l so a f f ec t the degree and d i r ec t ionof the im pac t s a t r eg iona l l eve l . S ince m uch o f theresearch cu r ren t ly be ing ca rded ou t i s loca t ion -spec i f i c , i t i s d i f f i cu l t to know whether o r no t asys tem wh ich i s sus ta inab le in one par t o f the coun-try is necessar i ly sus tainable in another . I t i s not ,therefore, poss ible to be specif ic about the regionalim pac t s bu t i t i s pos s ib le to specu la te abou t theef f ec t s on the supp ly indus t r i es and the i r m arke t s , thecom m odi ty p roces s ing indus t r i es and the i r m arke t s ,and f ina l ly the consum pt ion im pac t s caused bychanges in ag r icu l tu ra l incom e.

One o f the p r inc ip les o f sus ta inab i l i ty invo lvesdecoup l ing the f a rm ing sys tem s f rom purchased in -puts . These wil l genera l ly include fer t i l iser and pes t i -c ides bu t m a y inc lude o ther goods and s e rv ices suchas m ach inery . T h is s eem s l ike ly to l ead to fu r thercon t r ac t ion in the m arke t s wh ich have s een the

who lesa le e l im ina t ion o f f am i ly -ow ned loca l m er -chan t ing bus ines ses over the pas t decade o r so . T herei s som e sugges t ion tha t dem an d fo r l abour ( fo r weed-ing and hedge lay ing ; P re t ty and Howes , 1993) wo u ldincrease , bu t these h igh ly s easona l opera t ions s eemunl ike ly to do m ore than p rov ide casua l jobs a tce r ta in t im es o f the year . I f y ie lds a re r educed thendem and fo r ha rves t and pos tharves t l abour w i l l a l sobe r educed .

I f the adop t ion o f sus ta inab i l i ty invo lves r educ-t ions in the am oun t o f p roduc t , the re a re l ike ly to beconsequences in the co m m odi ty p roces sing s ec to r.W i th a r educ t ion in inpu t s and h ence y ie lds , the re i sl ike ly to be under -u t i li s ed capac i ty in the p roces s ingsec to r , m uc h o f wh ich i s loca ted r eg iona l ly . In add i -t ion, t ranspor t cos ts per tonne would increase, lead-ing to increased concentrat ion in the process ing sec-tor . This sector is a l ready subject to rapidly changin gtechno log y and s ign i f i can t econom ies o f s ca le . Sus -ta inab i l i ty wou ld p robab ly exacerba te the changescur ren t ly t ak ing p lace . McCor r i s ton (1994) has de-ve loped a m ethodo logy fo r inves tiga t ing these down-s t r eam ef fec t s o f changes in env i ronm en ta l po l i cy .Fur therm ore , i t wou ld be im por tan t to m ain ta in qua l -i ty levels s ince, i f sus tainabi l i ty involved an increasein var iab i l i ty o f qua l i ty o f p roduc t (Fenem ore andNorton, 1985) , there might be a loss in competi t ive-nes s w i th r espec t to h igh qua l i ty p roduc t im por tedin to the r eg ion. M ak ing a r a ther d i f f e ren t po in t , Han fand Ver ree t (1994) em phas i s e tha t the subs t i tu t ionrate between a decrease in pes t ic ides res idues in foodand d r ink ing wate r and an inc rease in m y co tox ins infood p roduc t s i s a s ye t unknow n.

T here i s an a rgum en t tha t r eg iona l sus ta inab i l i tym igh t inc lude loca l p roces s ing and the deve lopm en to f n iche p roduc t s in na t iona l o r in te rna t iona l foodm arke t s . W hi l s t the re a re m any succes s fu l exam plesof such products (cheeses , wines , e tc . ) , i t i s d if f icul ta t th i s t im e to s ee them becom ing a m ajo r genera to ro f incom e in every loca l i ty .

I t is impor tant a lso to recognise the potent ialconsum pt ion e f f ec t s o f sus ta inab i l i ty . I t has beenargued above tha t w i thou t changes in suppor t po l i -c ies , a m anda to ry m ove tow ards sus ta inab i li ty wou ldl ike ly r educe f a rm incom es . Such a m ove wou ldhave im pac t s on the loca l com m uni ty because thespend ing o f f a rm ers and o ther s wou ld be r educed .Rura l shops , a l r eady under p res su re f rom superm ar -


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10 2 J.P. G. Webster/Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 64 (1997) 95-102

Gi ve n t ha t t he ge ne r a l e t hos o f sus t a i na b i l i t y i n -vo l ve s a r e duc t i on i n e x t e r na l i npu t s a nd a m ovet owa r ds i n t e r na l s e l f su f f i c i e nc y , i t i s ha r d t o a vo i dt he c onc l us i on t ha t t he i m m e di a t e e f f e c t s on t hee x i s t i n g l o c a l r u r a l e c o n o m y w o u l d n o t b e p o s i t i v e .I t s e e m s l i k e ly t h a t t h e r e w o u l d b e f u r t h e r c o n c e n tr a -t i o n i n b o t h t h e u p s t r e a m a n d t h e d o w n s t r e a m s e c -t o r s . Whi l s t i t i s som e t i m e s sugge s t e d t ha t sus t a i n -a b i l i t y m i gh t i nc r e a se t he de m a nd f o r l a bour , t ha tl a bour i s l i ke l y t o be unpa i d , s e a sona l , o r c a sua l .

F i na l l y , i t i s no t ye t poss i b l e t o sa y wha t t hee f f e c t s o f a m ove t owa r ds sus t a i na b i l i t y a c r oss t heE U m i g h t b e . W h i l s t t h e E U i s t h e p o l i c y - m a k i n gun i t f o r Eur ope a n a g r i c u l t u r e a s a who l e , t he e f f e c t so f i t s po l i c i e s ha ve d i f f e r i ng c onse que nc e s a c r oss t hem e m b e r s t a te s . U n d e r p r e s e n t p o l ic i e s, i f y i e ld s w e r er e d u c e d a n d i n c o m e m a i n t a i n e d t h e n s u p p o r t c o s t sw o u l d b e r e d u c ed a n d t h e G A T I " a g r e e m e n ts m a d ee a s i e r t o a c h i e ve .

AcknowledgementsI a m g r a t e f u l f o r th e c o m m e n t s o f S t e v e H a r r is o n ,

U w e L a t a c z - L o h m a n n a n d N i g e l W i l l i a m s f o r c o m -m e n t s on a n e a r l i e r d r a f t .

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assessing the economic consequences of sustainability in

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