assessment of decentralized hybrid mini-grids in sub-saharan ......2nd africa-eu renewable energy...
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2nd Africa-EU Renewable Energy Research & Innovation Symposium
Assessment of decentralized hybrid mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa: Market analysis, Least-cost modelling, and Job creation analysis
Ayodeji OkunlolaInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam, Germany
THE KNOWN REALITY
Source: World Bank (2016)
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
GLOBAL ELECTRIFCATION RATES
MAJOR CHALLENGE CREATING A SYNERGY BETWEEN RE MINI-GRIDS & MARKET ACCESS IN SSA
????(Job Creation)
Market Access
Decentralized RE hybrid mini-grids
Addressing this question serves as the key research objective
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
JOBS!!
MINIMAL CONCENTRATION IN AFRICA: SSA STILL LAGGING
Source: IRENA (2017)
RENEWABLE ENERGY CENTERED JOBS CREATED IN 2016
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
JOBS!!
NO IMPROVEMENT IN JOBS CREATED BETWEEN 2015 AND 2016
ZOOMING CLOSER INTO FIGURES FOR AFRICA
2015 2016
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
METHODOLOGY:SYSTEM MODELLING and EMPLOYMENT IMPACT
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
ASSESSMENT MODEL
Energy systems modelling with urbsRE Employment Factors
Leontief Input–Output model
RE generation profiles, and annualElectricity demand profiles
Analysis of Gross jobs created due toindustry linkages
Analysis of Direct jobs created
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
Demand: Annual load profile
Variable RE source:Wind and Solar
generation profiles
Stock commodity (diesel generator)
Techno-economic Parameters:
• Efficiency • Investment costs • Lifetime • Interest rate• Fuel cost
OUTPUT • Costs • LCOE• Installed capacities mix • Generation mix • Storage needs
urbs techno economic
modelling tool
LEAST-COST MODELLING - urbs framework
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
urbs results
Direct Jobs
Net Jobs
JOB CREATION ASSESSMENT
Manufacturing, Installation, Operation & Maintenance𝑓(𝑘𝑊𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑, 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸, 𝐸mploymentFactor,
RegionalFactors EUvsZimbabwe ,%localmanufacturing)
Inter-sector backward linkages 𝑓(sectorcontributiontoGDP, Totalcost,
NumberofWorkerspersector, IOTableLeontiefInverse)
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
ENERGY DEMAND: DEMAND PROFILES ANALYSED
• Questionnaire
• Monte-carlo prediction (Time-of-use & Appliance demographics) 0
200
400
600
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Dem
and
(kW
)
Hour
0
1000
2000
3000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Dem
and
(kW
)
Hour
0
40
80
120
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Dem
and
(kW
)
Hour
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
11
Mini-grid scenarios considered
Base Scenario Diesel Only
SD Solar Diesel
SDB Solar + Diesel + Battery
SWD Solar + Wind + Diesel
SWDB Solar + Wind + Diesel + Battery
SWB Solar + Wind + Battery
SB Solar + Battery
WB Wind + Battery
WD Wind + Diesel
WDB Wind + Diesel + Battery
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
RESULTS
0.406 0.367 0.367 0.367 0.3670.656 0.657
2.271
0.405 0.405
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Diesel Only
SD SDB SWD SWDB SWB SB WB WD WDB
LC
OE
($/
kWh)
Ene
rgy
Ret
riev
ed (%
)
SCENARIOS
Diesel PV Wind Battery (retrieved) LCOE ($/kWh)
RESULTSTECHNO-ECONOMIC
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Diesel Only
SD SDB SWD SWDB SWB SB WB WD WDB
Dir
ect j
obs (
jobs
)
SCENARIOS
O&M Diesel Direct Jobs (Wind) O&MDirect Jobs (Wind) C&I Direct Jobs (Wind) ManufacturingDirect Jobs (Solar) O&M Direct Jobs (Solar) C&I
RESULTSDIRECT JOBS CREATED
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
Gro
ss jo
bs (j
obs)
SCENARIOS
Others Finacial Intermediation and Business ActivitiesHotels and Restaurants Education, Health and Other ServicesPublic Administration TransportRetail Trade Wholesale TradeMaintenance and Repair ConstructionElectricity, Gas and Water Other ManufacturingWood and Paper Textiles and Wearing ApparelFood & Beverages Agriculture
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
RESULTSBACK-WARD LINKAGE (GROSS) JOBS CREATED
15Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
Wind Turbines
Cut–in & Rated wind speed
Power coefficient (Cp)
In-country manufacturing
DIY(Low Wind) 2 m/s & 9m/s 0.29 90%
Commercial 3m/s & 11m/s 0.33 20%
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: SWDB ALTERED COMPONENT- WIND TURBINE & DEMAND TYPE
16Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
0
200
400
600
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Dem
and
(kW
)
Hour
0
1000
2000
3000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Dem
and
(kW
)
Hour
0
40
80
120
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23D
eman
d (k
W)
Hour
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: SWDB ALTERED COMPONENT- WIND TURBINE & DEMAND TYPE
17Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
0.37 0.36 0.350.34 0.33 0.32 0.31
0.27
0.370.35
0.330.31
0.290.28 0.27
0.24
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
reference0%
20% 40% 60% 70% 75% 80% 90%
LC
OE
($/k
Wh)
Dir
ect j
obs
(sca
led
to p
eak
jobs
cre
ated
)
% CAPEX REDUCTION
Direct jobs DIY WIND Direct jobs Solar PVLCOE DIY WIND LCOE Solar PV
SENSITIVITY RESULTSCAPEX REDUCTION EFFECT on LCOE & Direct Job creation
• Solar provides cheaper LCOE but lower employment impact against DIY wind turbine• Effect of in-country manufacturing enhances DIY wind turbine job impact
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
0.302 0.325 0.334 0.348 0.368 0.386
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0% 5% 7% 10% Reference (15%) 20%
LC
OE
($/k
Wh)
Dir
ect J
obs
(sca
led
to p
eak
jobs
cre
ated
)
WACC
O&M Diesel Direct Jobs (Wind) O&MDirect Jobs (Wind) C&I Direct Jobs (Wind) ManufactureDirect Jobs (Solar) O&M Direct Jobs (Solar) C&I
SENSITIVITY RESULTS IMPACT OF WEIGHTED COST OF CAPITAL (WACC)
Ayodeji Okunlola – RERIS 2018
KEY CONCLUSIONS
De-risking economic factors such as discount rates can improve market accessfor decentralized RE mini-grids in SSA.
Reducing the cost & duration of wind-resource assessment reduces projectdevelopment costs for the wind technology which improves the market accessfor wind based hybrid systems.
Manufacturing & Agriculture industries still provide the highest productiveback-ward effects of mini-grid electrification.
Trade-off between lower LCOE and high job creation to drive growth ofdecentralized hybrid mini-grid in sub-Saharan Africa is essential.