Assessment of Year 2000 Events

Bob Wright

February 2000

Assessment of Year 2000 Events

Bob Wright

February 2000

George Washington University Y2K Group

Personal Admissions

• For the record:– Y2K fixated: Yes– My prediction: 7 (+/- 6) - global economy– Generator, food, etc … overall ready (almost)– Neighbors/family/strangers “alerted”

How could I have missed this one? Or, did I ?

0-0 Foresight

• Government– CIA– State– DoD

• Congress

• Industry

• Experts

Shared Blame!

Or,Informed

andInsightful

20-20 Hindsight

• Y2K ‘Experts’ Differ– Industry overreaction– Extremist at work– “twittering … morons”– Yawn 2K – Or ????

The Nation’s Y2K Center

• ICC Up and Running

• Rollover Operations 24/7

• Infrastructure Sectors Represented

• 1000s of Reports

• Early Drawdown

ICC View

• Bad News Need Not Apply– State: Embassy status-only– DoD: Roll-up status only– Local government reports filtered

• After Rollover, Interest Waned Rapidly– Briefings: Few glitches (No visual aids, no reports)

– Media coverage – Bowl games

Anticipated Threats

• Flawed Forecasting or Premature Outcome?– Y2K Vulnerability

• Gartner’s estimate of 15% failure

– Terrorist Threats– Cyberspace Attacks

International Status

• Rollover Observations (Midnight Express) – Unprecedented: Everywhere GREEN– Multiple Sources Confirm Status

• State, DoD, National Coordinators

• Y2K: “Best thing that every happened”

GreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreenGreen

RED

Yellow

Global Power Grid

• The REAL Benchmark: All Green– Easily Confirmed– Technical Verification (NightLights)

• Verdict: No ET Problem

Source: Almanac 1998

“It’s Over”

• Within 48 hours, the tempo relaxed– Mindful of weekend lull– Despite growing impacts

• Last 100 messages, 39 failures

• New failures? ‘Not’ Y2K

Frantic

Dead

Y2K Rollover

What Really Happened?

• Define ‘Success’– Reduce all events to RED/YELLOW/GREEN

• Then don’t share colors

– Prepare Public for ‘routine’ computer failures• Describe all “failures/problems” as “Glitches”

– Declare Victory early-on

• In fact, we were successful

“Rain only happens when you forget your umbrella”

Reporting Bias

• Governmental Incentive– Country Perspective - $$$$

• Run on Banks• Investment Fears• Tourism

– Other Factors• Civil Unrest• Adversarial Relationships

• Corporate View– Liability/Image/Competition

Green

Green

Why Didn’t (They) Fail

• IT’s Nature for Failures and Bugs

• Foreign Countries– Not as dependent on technology– Use to high levels of failure– Mostly COTS, easily fixed

• Small Business– Fix-on-failure– Perform manual work arounds, as always

Why Didn’t (They) Fail (con’t)

• Secret Weapon: Internet– A true force multiplier– Awareness, solutions … everything– Timelines dramatically shortened

• Managing Media Perceptions – You can’t report what you can’t see– Don’t admit stupidity

Today’s Reporting

• Public/Private Management Response

– Y2K Failure? Yes or NO– Rational

• Yes = Stupid or Inept

– Corporate liability/litigation/competition

Continuing Problems?

• All Sectors reporting IT failures– Energy Sector most troubling

– No Y2K issues, of course

PipelinesRefineries

Credit CardsPrices

The public has has no where to turn for the truth!

The Final Chapter

• Sound “All Clear”– Continuing Y2K Problems

• Leap Year

• Quarterly/Annual Reporting

• Other Events

• Coming To An End?– ICC Closing Early March– IY2KCC Closing Late February– Final Congressional Hearings

The Aftermath

• Infrastructure Modernized

• Problem Systems Retired

• Hugh Savings, Freeing Up Assets

• Better Prepared for Cyber Threat

• Unprecedented Levels of Cooperation

• Congress/Administration in Agreement!

Y2K, by any measure, a SUCCESS