Assignments, chapter 7

Analysis assignments 7.1. Your own climate Write an essay of 500 to 1,000 words in which you explain what climate change means for the country in which you live. You can limit yourself to information found in this chapter or you can seek out other information. Before starting, focus on a specific target group that fits in with your current or future situation as either a professional or an individual. Your target group could, for example, be: municipal officials, corporate managers, politicians, technical designers, artists, or children in a given primary school or senior secondary school grade. You could also use your neighbours, parents or your children as a target group. You can also vary the assignment by selecting a different topic in this chapter. 7.2. California California, one of the states of the United States, has in recent years pursued a different policy to the country’s federal authorities in respect of the greenhouse effect. The same applies, to varying degrees, for the states of Oregon, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Washington, New York, Vermont and others. Study and outline California’s climate change policy. 7.3. Linear and non-linear Figure 7.9 in the book, shown on the right, contains three glasses. Glass C is a thin wine glass that holds 10 centilitres (cl). Water is poured into each of the glasses. Now compare the level of the water (in cm) to the amount of water poured into the glasses (in cl). Sketch the graph for when: a. Cold water is poured into glass A

until it is nearly full. b. Cold water is poured into glass B

until it is nearly full. c. Cold water is poured into glass C until it is nearly full. d. 15 cl of cold water is poured into glass C. e. 15 cl of boiling water is poured into glass C, causing the glass to break. 7.4. Precautionary principle a. In chapter 7, fire insurance is discussed as an example of a precautionary principle that applies on a

personal level. List as many other precautions you can think of which people would take on a personal level. Which of these have you taken?

b. Identify a number of precautionary measures that are frequently taken by municipal or national governments.

Numerical assignments 7.5. The temperature in the Netherlands The graph below shows the maximum temperatures in the Netherlands between 1949 and 2009, as measured in De Bilt. One line shows the average annual maximum temperature for each year, while the other shows the maximum temperature on just one day in each year – 30 April, being the Queen’s birthday and a public holiday. The figures for this graph can be downloaded from the website of the book as a spreadsheet titled ‘Maximum temperatures in the Netherlands.xls’. You can also find an image of this graph there. Divide the years to which the figures pertain into two periods, with the first period amounting to 42 years, from 1949 through 1990, and the second period dealing with the years from 1991 onwards.

Three glasses (side view)

a. Why can it be considered only logical that the graph for 30 April fluctuates much more dramatically than that for the annual average?

b. Calculate the average of the maximum temperatures on 30 April during the first period. Repeat the exercise for the second period and compare the results.

c. Perform a statistical analysis to see whether you can demonstrate the assertion that the maximum temperatures on 30 April were higher in the second period than the first.

d. Repeat questions (b) and (c) for the annual averages. e. Explain the difference in the results between question (c) and question (d).

7.6. Emission allowances Two (fictitious) European companies - Accens and Byon – each release 400 kilotons of CO2 this year. For the upcoming year they have only received 360 kilotons in emission allowances each from the authorities. Accens has decided to invest in sustainable energy, which means that it will only need to produce 340 kilotons of CO2 next year. This presents a choice for Byon, as it can either buy emission allowances – maybe from Accens, which now has emission allowances to spare – or it can invest in its own installations to product sustainable energy. In respect of emission allowances, the market value stands at 22 euros a ton (let us assume that there are no further companies offering emission allowances at present). Byon has also calculated that an investment that will cancel out the entire shortage of emission allowances will cost €7.6 million, a figure that can be written off in eight years. There is one other option left open for the company – do nothing, in which case it will pay a penalty of €100 for each excess ton of CO2 it produces. What is the best option for Byon? In considering this question, take into account the possibility that the market value of emission allowances could change in the future, with their peak to date being around €29 per ton. Another factor to consider is the company’s corporate image.

Maximum temperatures in the Netherlands

7.7. Wien’s displacement law Watch the video by NASA called ‘Greenhouse Gases Effect on Global Warming’, which can be found on the website of the book. In this video the physical principal of the greenhouse effect is illustrated.

You can calculate that principle using Wien’s displacement law. a. The light from the sun is visible to the naked eye. Check this through calculation, using the fact that the

sunlight comes from the photosphere, which has a temperature in the region of 5,800 Kelvin. b. The light emitted by the earth itself is infrared light, and is not visible. Assume a reasonable value for the

temperature of the earth’s surface and demonstrate that the thermal radiation emitted is indeed infrared.

Research assignments 7.8. Feedback in the greenhouse effect In figure 7.6 in the book you can see seven different types of feedback that concern the greenhouse effect. You can download the diagram as a PowerPoint presentation named ‘Greenhouse effect – feedback loops.ppt’ from the website of the book. The diagram is built up in stages in the presentation.

a. View the PowerPoint presentation. b. Some of the seven feedback loops are explained in chapter 7. Study the remaining loops and make sure

you understand all of them.

c. At the end of the PowerPoint presentation you can see an eighth feedback loop, which is not contained in figure 7.6. Consider a number of examples that can be used to concretise this eighth loop.

d. Get a suitable audience together, and show them the PowerPoint presentation. If you are performing this exercise with a group, then have each member of the group present a part of the presentation.

7.9. Albedo Permafrost and the polar icecaps have a high albedo. Watch the video made by NASA titled ‘Albedo decreases as ice melts’, which can be found on the website of the book. Note the ice, which decreases during the video, as well as the fact that the sun’s rays are bouncing back into space to an increasingly lower degree. Investigate the relationships between the greenhouse effect, albedo, permafrost and methane.

7.10. Thermohaline circulation Watch the video made by NASA titled ‘Thermohaline conveyor’, which can be found on the website of the book. Study the media (newspapers, television, the internet, etc) to ascertain whether there are signs that the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean is declining.

7.11. Greenhouse gases First read the text: ‘Greenhouse gases and particulate matter’. The text can be found as a pdf file on the website of the book. a. Using the table in this text, determine why carbon dioxide, methane, HFCs and PFCs fall under the Kyoto

Protocol. Note that the reasons might differ for each gas. b. Using the table, determine why CFCs and HCFCs do not fall under the Kyoto Protocol. c. Sulphur hexafluouride contributes very little to the greenhouse effect, as can be seen in the column on the

far right. Determine why it is still a part of the Kyoto Protocol. d. In the spreadsheet, which you can download, you can see that the table not only contains gases, but also

aerosols. Using the spreadsheet and the information in the downloaded text, provide a well-substantiated opinion on the question of whether their significance for climate change should influence the national and international policies concerning aerosols.

7.12. Adaptation If we could at best partly halt climate change, we will have to adapt ourselves in respect of the remainder. Watch the video ‘Climate change - Adaptation is vital’, which you can find on the website of the book.

This video mentions, amongst other things, the Dutch programme ‘Room for the River’, which was outlined in chapter 1. List at least ten different types of adaptation that would be suitable for surviving climate change in various regions of the world.

Debating assignments

7.13. Causes and consequences When you encounter a correlation between two phenomena – A and B – there could be a wide range of reasons for this. In the figure below, a schematic representation is provided of five different possibilities.

Explanation: (1) A causes B. (2) B causes A. (3) A causes or intensifies B and B causes or intensifies A: positive feedback. (4) There is another, possibly unknown, cause for both A and for B. (5) Coincidence. In this exercise you deal with pairs of such phenomena a number of times. For each of these pairs, check which of the five diagrams you believe to be the most likely. Explain your reasoning. If you suspect that diagram (4) is the answer, then try to indicate what cause ‘X’ is. The diagrams can also be combined, where necessary.

a. A: The concentration of particulate matter in the air increased in the USA during the 20th century. B: Prosperity increased in the USA during the 20th century.

b. A: The birth rate in Germany is declining continuously. B: There are an increasing number of television stations appearing in Germany.

c. A: The costs of healthcare in Europe are continuously rising. B: Europeans are becoming increasing older.

d. A: The Chinese and Indian economies are growing rapidly. B: Revenues are shrinking for the Italian clothing industry.

e. A: Japanese are increasingly going on holiday to distant locations. B: Japanese families increasingly own more than one car.

7.14. Is the climate really changing? Watch the video ‘Temperature anomalies 1881-2016’, which you can find on the website of the book.

Some cause and effect relationships

A B

(5)

XAB

(4)

A B

(3)

B A

(2)

A B

(1)

NASA, which made the video, explains it as follows (https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4546):

‘Earth’s 2016 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern recordkeeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Globally-averaged temperatures in 2016 were 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit (0.99 degrees Celsius) warmer than the mid-20th century mean. This makes 2016 the third year in a row to set a new record for global average surface temperatures. The 2016 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. NOAA scientists concur with the finding that 2016 was the warmest year on record based on separate, independent analyses of the data. Because weather station locations and measurement practices change over time, there are uncertainties in the interpretation of specific year-to-year global mean temperature differences. However, even taking this into account, NASA estimates 2016 was the warmest year with greater than 95 percent certainty.’

Discuss the question of how likely it is that the earth’s climate is really changing as a result of human factors. Express your answer in a figure between 0 and 100 percent. 7.15. Energy efficient behaviour Section 7.4 outlines a number of options for energy efficient behaviour, which are also listed in the spreadsheet ‘Energy efficient behaviour.xls’, which can be downloaded from the website of the book. a. Working as a group, expand the number of energy saving behavioural options in the spreadsheet to 12. b. Allocate a figure between 0 and 10 for each participant in the exercise, which indicates the extent to which

the energy efficient behaviour is practiced by that participant – 0 = not at all, 10 = completely. c. Examine the total score for each person, and compare them to each other. Working together, check

whether the scores correspond to the degree to which each participant focuses on sustainability within their own lives.

d. Examine the total scores for each option. Examine which options are most practiced, and which are less popular. Discuss whether the same conclusions also hold for society as a whole in your country.

e. Discuss whether this sort of behaviour makes a significant contribution to sustainable development. 7.16. Kilimanjaro Watch the two videos, ‘Kilimanjaro 1993’ and ‘Kilimanjaro 2000’, both of which can be found on the website of the book. In recent years the dormant African volcano, Kilimanjaro, has been highlighted quite frequently as a symbol of climate change. The ice that has covered its summit for centuries is disappearing at great speed, a number of experts say. But is that really the case? Others assert that the loss of ice is simply a question of coincidental fluctuations. a. Study the media

coverage on Kilimanjaro from recent years.

b. Discuss the accuracy – or lack thereof – of the following statement: “Media coverage on climate change is inaccurate and sensationalist. The problems are grossly exaggerated – it’s all scaremongering.”

7.17. Emissions trading By way of introduction, watch the video ‘How does the emission trading scheme work’, which can be found on the website of the book. Chapter 7 briefly details how the trade in emissions allowances works. Take a more detailed look at how the entire system is put together. Study how effective it is in reality, with regard to endeavouring to cut back on the emission of greenhouse gases.

Problem-based learning assignments 7.18. Energy? What type of energy? The (imaginary) Swedish company Eccofar has been in existence for 15 years. It has a workforce of seven, which manufacture organic food products that are supplied to shops in some north-western US states and the south of England. Given the nature of the customers, as well as a genuine concern for the climate, the company hopes to draw at least 20 percent of its energy from sustainably generated energy within two years. But there are many types of sustainable energy, and Eccofar does not have the funds to make major investments. Consequently, the company approaches a group of students to provide recommendations. 7.19. Aerosols and traffic jams It’s a tricky question – in many parts of the country the European norms for the maximum concentration of particulate matter are being exceeded. As a result of this, no new suburbs may be built in those areas, a fact confirmed by the High Court. So what are the other options? If the authorities decide to build anyway, they could incur major European penalties, as well as fatalities. Another option is to limit traffic – no new highways, and actually closing other highways. But what about the traffic jams? Oh well, no housing then! Of course, then parliament will start to complain again that nothing is being done to tackle the housing shortage. In 2005 a desperate state secretary for the Environment applied for an exemption from the European Commission in the hope that the government could build houses without incurring fines. He simply had no other choice!

7.20. Underground storage Watch the video ‘Capturing carbon’, which can be found on the website of the book. The inhabitants of the town of Catsborough are very concerned, as the authorities have decided to store CO2 beneath the town. 7.21. The climate and the precautionary principle It is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to work out in advance what the consequences of climate change will be. As detailed in chapter 7, there are innumerable types of feedback and non-linear processes that play a part in determining the way in which the atmosphere, the oceans and the natural world will react to climate change, while all those reactions also play a role in determining the rate at which the climate changes. For example, let’s look at the hurricanes that were discussed in chapter 7. Their birth, their power, the size they grow to and the path they follow are all relatively chaotic factors. One of the reasons for this is the occurrence of ‘hot towers’, which feed and direct the hurricanes. You can get an impression of these by watching the video ‘Hot Towers & Hurricanes’, which you can find on the website of the book.

The film concludes with a lamentation on the part of the commentator that, despite the powerful computers on which simulations can be run, the complex process remains highly unpredictable. Now include all the other forms of unpredictability that play a part in climate change, such as the scope and frequency of El Niño and La Niña, possible changes to the monsoon rains and the thermohaline circulation, desertification and so on. Taken together, this seems sufficient to adopt

comprehensive and expensive measures, on the basis of the precautionary principle, in order to avoid as many of these issues as possible. Of course, on the other hand you cannot continue spending vast amounts just to ensure that something will not happen. Should the exercise be wholly successful, then nothing whatsoever will happen and it will seem as if you wasted a great deal of money. And if the exercise does not succeed and terrible consequences arise, then you’ve spent that money for nothing! How do you deal with this situation?

Project assignments

7.22. Ten or more megawatts a. Examine what methods exist to generate some ten or more megawatts of power per year in a sustainable

manner. Determine which forms of generating power you believe to be sustainable, and explain your reasoning.

b. Create an overview for each of these types of sustainable energy of the primary advantages and disadvantages. For now, do not include the economic aspects (profit), but divide the advantages and disadvantages only into human aspects (people) and ecological ones (planet).

c. Now study the economic aspects. What is the current cost price per megawatt? Does this price depend on the location in the world? How is the price expected to change in the future, and do technological innovations play a role in this? To what extent is the price of supplying energy or its generation influenced by subsidies? Examine whether you can also pose and respond to other relevant questions.

7.23. Floating cities Watch the video ‘Floating cities in Holland’, which you can find on the website of the book. Design a floating city yourself, but first determine: a. The area where your floating city will be

located – such as New Orleans Tuvalu, Bangladesh or North Holland. Your lecturer will most likely assign you a specific region, but if not, select one yourself.

b. Which constraints must be applied? c. What do you do about infrastructure, such as

roads, water and electricity pipes and sewers? Draw a map of the floating city. Depending on the types of expertise represented in the group performing this project, you can then focus on a variety of topics – the architecture of the houses and other buildings, the social aspects, the investments and pay-back time, the legal aspects, including those relating to land ownership, and the insurance aspects. First draw up a plan in which you set out the research objectives, the results and the manner in which reports will be made. Next get your lecturer to approve the plan, and then execute it. 7.24. Hurricanes Watch the video ‘27 Storms in 2005’, which can be found on the website of the book.

Next, download the Stern Report from the same site, which bears the official name of ‘Stern Review (Full Report) - The economics of Climate Change’. Using the video and the report, as well as any other necessary sources, study the economic consequences of the possible increase in the number of major storms and hurricanes over the course of the 21st century due to climate change.

Film assignments 7.25. Feature films and documentaries Watch one of the following, preferably with others in your class:

• An Inconvenient Truth (2006), the famous documentary by Al Gore, mentioned in chapter 7

• The Day after Tomorrow (2004), a feature film by Roland Emmerich that focuses on climate change, albeit that the change happens at an impossibly high speed

• A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash (2006): a colourful documentary by Basil Gelpke and Ray McCormack on the diminishing oil reserves

• Trouble the Water (2008), a documentary directed by Carl Deal and Tia Lessin on the lives of a number of people before and after Hurricane Katrina

• Meat the Truth (2008), documentary by Karen Soeters and Gertjan Zwanikken on the extent to which the meat industry influences climate change

• The Age of Stupid (2009), a melange of documentary and feature film directed by Franny Armstrong, in which a late-21st century man asks why we did not stop climate change when we were able to

Read the reviews and other comments. Discuss the film. 7.26. Make your own film There are many ways in which we can adapt to and prepare for the consequences of climate change. The video ‘Floating Cities in Holland’, which you can find on the website of the book, provides a sample of these. Make your own video in which you show one or more ways in which people or organisations can effectively prepare for the consequences of climate change. Should you be very happy with your video, then submit it to the above website. Who knows, maybe your film, along with your name, will be placed on the website so that all users can view it. If you decide to do this, do make sure that you hold full copyright, including for any music, photos or anything else used.