association to causation. sequence of studies clinical observations available data case-control...
Post on 21-Dec-2015
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Association to Causation
Sequence of Studies
Clinical observations
Available data
Case-control studies
Cohort studies
Randomized trials
Types of Associations
• Real
• Spurious
DEFINITIONS
• Observational study
• Causation
• Association
• Necessary
• Sufficient
Koch and Causation
• Postulates
• Why study association
• Web of causation
• Do we need a better way
Twelve Criteria for Causation
• Cause distributed at same level
• Incidence much higher in exposed population
• Exposure more frequent
• Disease should follow exposure
• Dose dependent• Expected response
• Association should be the same
• Other cause-effect ruled out• Control results in decreased
disease • Modification of host results
in decrease• Human vol. always +• Findings should make
sense
Factors in Causation of Disease
• Predisposing
• Enabling
• Precipitating
• Reinforcing
Web of Causation
Are Associations Always Connected to the Disease?
NO, BUT …………………………..Cigarette smoking and lung cancerAge and prostate cancerCar accidents and alcoholTribal customs and kuruAgriculture and antibiotic resistance
Association
• Deals with ……………….
• Is concerned with ……….
• Is the degree of ………….
• Has to be scientifically proven …..
Your Assignment: fill in the blanks
Degrees of Association
• No assoc. Direct assoc.No possibility for associationPossibly associatedAssociatedDirect cause and effect
Guidelines for Judging Whether An Association Is Causal
• Temporal relationship• Strength of the association• Dose-response relationship• Replication of the findings• Biologic plausibility• Consideration of alternate explanations• Specificity of the association• Consistency with other knowledge
Deriving Causal Inferences
• Arriving at causation from association For example, showing that Helicobacter
pylori is directly linked to peptic ulcers
Perspectives
• Causation may be limited
• Subject to modification
• Perhaps more complex than realized
• Sometimes not measureable
• “Criteria” are really guidelinesmay be subjective