assumptions by economics – what to look for?. page 2 assumptions ► growth as measured by the gdp...
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Assumptions by Economics – What to look for?
Page 2
Assumptions
► Growth as measured by the GDP► Inflation and interest rates► Asset Allocation ► Diversification
5th Annual Audit Committee Conference
Page 3
Global Outlook
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
3.03.84.9
GDP growth by region 1
World Transition economies Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
GD
P g
roth
(%
p.a
)
Source: Economic Intelligence Unit, March 2014
Page 4
Emerging Markets
5th Annual Audit Committee Conference
2001 - 2010 2011 – 2015 : Forecast20
01 -
201
0
2011
- 20
15
China9.5
Nigeria6.8
Zambia6.9
Tanzania7.2
India8.2
Congo7.0
Vietnam7.2
Angola11.1
Rwanda7.6
Cambodia7.7
Nigeria8.9
Kazakhstan8.2
Ethiopia8.4
Myanmar10.3
China10.5
Chad7.9
Mozambique7.9
Ethiopia8.1 Mozambique
7.7
Ghana7.0
Page 5
Listed Investments
5th Annual Audit Committee Conference
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ind
ex:
3 J
an
2005
= 1
00 Murray & Roberts
Aveng
Group 5
JSE (Alsi)
Source: IDC, compiled from Bloomberg data
Share price trends of select companies and the J SE Alsi
Latest data: 23 June 2015
Page 6
Asset Allocation
5th Annual Audit Committee Conference
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Ind
ex:
1998 =
100
Total Manufacturing
Motor vehicles & parts
Food & beverages
Chemicals
TV, radio &communicationequipmentWood & paper
Non-metallic mineralproducts
Electrical machinery
Base metals &machinery
Furniture & othermanufacturing
Textiles, clothing,leather & footwear
Source: IDC, compiled from Stats SA data
Manufacturing volume of production
Motor vehicles & parts
Textiles & clothing
TV & radio
Page 7