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TRANSCRIPT
ASTANA FINANCEManagement Presentation
June 21, 2010
WHILE JSC ASTANA FINANCE (“ASTANA FINANCE” OR THE “COMPANY”) HAS UNDERTAKEN ALL REASONABLE EFFORTS TOENSURE THAT THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION (THE "PRESENTATION") IS CORRECT, ACCURATEAND COMPLETE AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION, NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AREMADE AS TO AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON THE FAIRNESS, CORRECTNESS, ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OFSUCH INFORMATION. NO LIABILITY IS ACCEPTED FOR ANY SUCH INFORMATION OR OPINIONS BY THE COMPANY, OR ANYOF THEIR RESPECTIVE DIRECTORS, MEMBERS, OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES, AGENTS OR ADVISORS.
THIS PRESENTATION AND THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN IT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF ANY OFFEROR INVITATION TO SELL OR ISSUE, OR ANY SOLICITATION OF ANY OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR, ANYSECURITIES OF THE COMPANY.
THIS PRESENTATION INCLUDES FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS WHICH INCLUDE ALL STATEMENTS OTHER THANSTATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACT INCLUDED IN THIS PRESENTATION, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, THOSEREGARDING THE COMPANY’S FINANCIAL POSITION, PROSPECTS, BUSINESS STRATEGY AND PLANS AND OBJECTIVES OFMANAGEMENT FOR FUTURE OPERATIONS. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWNRISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND OTHER FACTORS, WHICH MAY CAUSE THE COMPANY’S ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE,ACHIEVEMENTS OR INDUSTRY RESULTS TO BE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THOSE EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED BY THESEFORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE BASED ON NUMEROUS ASSUMPTIONSREGARDING THE COMPANY’S PRESENT AND FUTURE BUSINESS STRATEGIES AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THECOMPANY EXPECTS TO OPERATE IN THE FUTURE. AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS, YOU ARE CAUTIONED NOT TO RELYON ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT.
In addition, all figures contained in this presentation for 2009 and 2010 are based on preliminary, unaudited
management accounts only and are subject to (i) review of the Company’s results for that period by the
Company’s auditors and (ii) further internal review of the adequacy of the levels of provisioning applied to
the Company’s loan portfolio. Accordingly, all such figures contained herein are subject to change.
Important notice
2
Update on current situation
Section 1
3
Current situation
• High exposure on real estate projects and losses on large
projects such as:
– Ular-Umit deal – $245 mm;
– AG Capital Interra - $78 mm;
– Almaty Financial District - $50 mm.
• Up to 90% of the loan portfolio - loans to related parties.
Most of them are project financing;
• ForEx losses due to devaluation of Kazakhstanee tenge in
early 2009;
• Poor risk-management practices and corporate
governance.
Reasons of default in 2009
• The Company defaulted in May 2009 on international and
domestic obligations;
• The Company failed to comply with FMSA’s capital adequacy
ratios and returned the license in September 2009.
Current position of the Company
Previous management failed to carry out the restructuring. The Company’s financial situation
continues to deteriorate in 2010, which necessitates more active involvement of Samruk-Kazyna in
the restructuring process and appointment of new management of the Company.
4
Schedule of restructuring events
The Term Sheet is signed with the Creditors’ Committee November 2009
FMSA imposed written ordered disposal of control over 3 subsidiaries - 2 insurance companies and
Bank Astana FinanceNovember 2009
Negotiations with domestic creditors failed December 2009
FMSA rejected AF’s application for banking restructuring March 2010
Elmira Ibatullina’s voluntary resignation as CEO March 2010
New management appointed May 2010
The Trust Management Agreement is signed between Samruk-Kazyna and AF with respect to 3
subsidiary companies – 2 insurance companies and Bank Astana-FinanceMay 2010
Extraordinary meeting of shareholders appointed new Board of Directors June 2010
New management has started negotiations with FMSA and Samruk-Kazyna, conducted internal due
diligence, developed new forecasts and terms of restructuringMay – June 2010
5
• New management created additional provisions
for impairment losses for $279 mm;
• Net loss on foreign exchange due to 20 %
devaluation of kazakhstani tenge in the first
quarter of 2009;
• Other non-interest losses include loss on
financial assets and derivatives;
• Net loss for 2009 is $1,217 mm.
P&L Comments
Currency:
USD, mn.
2007
audited
2008
audited2009
unaudited
Net Interest Income/(loss) 43 45 -11
Non-interest income/(loss) 31 48 -232
Operational Income 73 93 -243
Net loss on foreign
exchange
-18 -12 -87
Operating expenses -26 -24 -17
Provision for impairment
losses
-25 -83 -872
Profit/(loss) before
taxation
3 -27 -1,218
Income tax
expenses/recovery
-2
0
1
Net profit/(loss) 2 -26 -1,217
Income/loss statement (unconsolidated)
6
Assets Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity
Currency:
USD, mm Dec.07
audited
Dec.08
auditedDec.09
unaudited
Cash and cash equivalents 7 66 2
Due from banks 65 129 0
Investments into subs 34 135 175
Loans to subsidiaries 120 202 322
Investments into securities and
derivatives
212 420 23
Loans to customers, gross 1,332 1,428 961
Impairment loss on loans to customers -42 -86 -801
Investment property 9 9 7
Other assets 90 162 34
Total
1,827 2,465 723
Currency:
USD, mm Dec.07
audited
Dec.08
auditedDec.09
unaudited
Due to banks 908 655 366
Due to state entities 25 148 40
Debt securities issued 690 1,176 1,282
Other 124 252 58
Total liabilities 1,747 2,231 1,745
Total Shareholders’ equity (deficit) 80 234 -1,022
Total liabilities and shareholders’
equity 1,827 2,465 723
Balance sheet (unconsolidated)
7
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
-
200
400
31.12.2008 FOREX Provisions Sale of securities and change of
securities' value
Net interest income Others 31.12.2009
$ m
m
• New management has revealed the need for additional provisions in the amount of $279 mm;
• The restructuring aims to recover the deficit of shareholders’ equity.
Net assets change in 2009
Comments
Shareholders’ equity (unconsolidated)
Additional impairment loss
8
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
dec.08 jun.09 sep.09 dec.09
$ m
m
Loans Provisions Additional provisions
Loan portfolio dynamics
Comments
• New management has indentified the need for additional provisions in the amount of $279 mm. (based on re-
evaluation standard IAS 39). Thus, the provisions will stand at 85% of the loan portfolio. There is no expectations of
recovery in the future;
• For comparison: As of April 1, 2010 provisions of BTA and Alliance stand at 77% and 72%, respectively. The
provisions for corporate loans on those banks are at a higher level - 80-90%.
Loan portfolio
Additional impairment loss
9
Loan portfolio in details
• Property (real estate) and construction loans
comprise 47% of the loan portfolio. Thus, the loan
portfolio was significantly affected by the turmoil in
those sectors;
• Financial services account for 19% of the total
loans;
• Other industries account for 34% of the portfolio.
• Subsidiaries and related companies comprise
more than 90% of the loan portfolio.
Comments
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
real estate financial services
other services construction other
Breakdown by sectors
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
subsidiaries companies under control other companies
Breakdown by control
Astana Finance liabilitiesAs of April 1, 2010
$ mm Nominal
value
Interest
accrued Total
Astana Finance liabilities 1,635.4 170.3 1,805.8
Eurobonds, private placements,
bilaterals, etc 905.9 115.6 1,021.5
Local bonds 469.4 46.6 516.1
incl. subordinated debt 157.6 16.8 174.4
Export-Credit Agencies 217.2 7.8 224.9
DAMU 10.2 0.3 10.5
State Entities 32.7 0.1 32.8
incl. subordinated debt 15.1 0.0 15.1
11
Subsidiaries’ financialsAs of March 31, 2010 (unaudited)
SubsidiariesLeasing
company
Mortgage
companyBank AF AF Bank (Russia)
Insurance
company
Life insurance
company
Credit
companyMCO
Brokerage
company
Assets 306 106 114 172 24 11 13 5 3
Liabilities 269 47 77 122 17 4 81 16 1
Shareholders' capital 37 60 36 49 7 7 -68 -11 2
Income 9 0 3 5 2 2 0 0 1
Expenses 13 1 2 5 2 2 33 1 0
Net profit -3 0 0 0 -1 0 -33 0 1
$ mm
12
• Bank AF, Insurance company and Life insurance company were transferred to Samruk-Kazyna under
the Trust Management Agreement in May of 2010.
• There is a need for additional capital injection:
• Bank AF – $34 mm;
• Insurance company - $3 mm;
• Life insurance company - $3 mm.
• Most companies are at the start up stage.
• All companies require additional funding for further development, which Astana Finance is not able to
provide.
List of Astana Finance shareholdersAs of June 2, 2010
ShareholderNumber of
shares
Percentage of
shares
Samruk-Kazyna Group (incl. entities under control) 2,949,053 46.06
JSC “APF “UlarUmit” 1,288,128 20.12
Committee for State Property and Privatization
of the Ministry of Finance 943,500 14.74
JSC “APF “BTA Kazakhstan” 456,790 7.13
JSC “NWF “Samruk-Kazyna” 260,635 4.07
Kintal Islamov’s Group (allegedly controlled) 2,506,386 39.14
“Astana Stroy Service Firm” LLP 660,188 10.31
“Saya Invest” LLP 635,608 9.93
"Logistic Technopark CM“ LLP 573,199 8.95
"Kazakhstan Standart Invest" LLP 349,691 5.46
“Ratul” LLP 287,700 4.49
Previous management (“Vneshinvest Company” LLP) 785,630 12.67
Other 161,157 2.52
Total 6,402,226 100
13
Top Management of Astana-Finance
• Board of Directors (BoD):
– Marat Aitenov, Chairman of BoD;
– Yerlan Shakibayev, Member of BoD;
– Nina Karibayeva, Member of BoD – Independent Director.
• Management Board:
– Yerlan Shakibayev, Chairman of the Management Board (CEO);
– Yerlan Manatayev, Deputy Chairman;
– Bauyrzhan Nugymanov, Deputy Chairman;
– Almas Omarkhanov, Managing Director - Member of the Management Board;
– Igor Morozov, Managing Director – Member of the Management Board.
14
Strategy of the Company
Section 2
15
Company strategy
To fulfill the obligations to creditors at a maximum level, as well as to
successfully facilitate the restructuring process.
Main goals and principles are:
•Repayment of loan portfolio;
•Assets recovery;
•Increase of the assets’ value;
•Sale of assets.
16
• The management plans to concentrate on collection for the first three years. It will include:
• Legal enforcement procedures;
• Collateral collections that adequately cover the principle of the loans;
• Recovery of affiliated projects through equity control restoration (repossession).
• The forecasts suggest that the assets’ value will recover within three years. Upon that sales of
collateral are to speed up.
• The total recovery proceeds will amount to $368mm, which comprises 35% of the total loan
portfolio.
Forecast of proceeds from loan portfolio
Comments
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$m
m
Forecast of proceeds from loan portfolio
17
Forecast on subsidiaries’ market value growth
* Assumption: subsidiaries’ market value in 2009 equals the shareholders’ capital
• There is a need for additional capital injection into subsidiaries, which Astana Finance is not able to
provide.
• The strategy suggests reinvestment of subsidiaries’ earnings to increase shareholders value in the long
run.
• The market value is determined at 1.5 BV.
Comments
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2009* 2015 2020 2025 2030
$ m
mSubsidiaries' market value growth
BAF AF Bank Insurance Life insurance Leasing
18
Updated vs. previous forecasts
Section 3
19
Forecast comparison of cash inflows
• The previous cash flows projections incorporated into the signed Term Sheet suggested the totalproceeds from the loan portfolio to amount up to $579 mm, while debt servicing was feasible starting from2010.
• The current cash flow projection suggest the total proceeds from loan portfolio will not exceed $368 mm.Besides significant cash flow are expected to recover only starting from 2013.
• These changes are due to the following factors:
– Overstated forecasts by the previous management;
– Improper real estate market projections: property prices were expected to climb starting from 2010;
– The time duration for legal proceedings was not properly estimated.
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$m
m
Repayment of the loan portfolio
old new
Comments
20
Forecast for subsidiaries’ equity
• CAGR in the previous model – 14%, AF model – 8%.
• The forecast for growth rates, capital increase, etc. is more conservative compared to the
previous projections because:
Astana Finance has no capability to support aggressive growth by additional capital
injections;
Most subsidiaries are start up projects expected to grow gradually, supported only by
reinvested earnings.
Comments
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$m
m
old new
21
Difference of cash flow forecast (2010 - 2023)
old updated difference
Inflows 1 613 474 1 139
loans to subsidiaries 123 36 87
loan portfolio 455 332 123
securities portfolio 352 25 328
sale of subsidiaries 142 - 142
dividends from subs 525 11 514
other 15 70 - 55
Outflows - 1 614 - 475 - 1 139
operating expenses - 151 - 120 - 31
investments - 446 - 12 - 434
interest payments - 390 - 38 - 352
principal payments - 627 - 305 - 323
$mm
22
Updated cash inflows vs outflows (signed
Term Sheet)
• The updated cash flow projection suggests the Company fails to meet its liabilities under the signed
Term Sheet. Therefore, the signed Term Sheet should be revised with significant changes in the terms of
restructuring;
• The accumulated cash deficit is to reach $190mm by the end of 2017.
Comments
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
$ m
m
Updated inflows vs. outflows (signed Term Sheet)
inflows term sheet outflows
23
New Terms of Restructuring
Section 4
24
Principles for restructuring
• To avoid bankruptcy of Astana Finance.
• No cash support from Samruk-Kazyna.
• To reach terms acceptable to creditors which are
executable.
25
General approach to restructuring and
assumptions
• International creditors are repaid using proceeds from the loan portfolio;
• Maximization of the Loan Portfolio collection (in the current model - $368
mm, which comprises 35%);
• Transfer of DAMU liabilities with corresponding assets to Bank Astana
Finance - around $10.5 mm;
• Astana Finance will not resume lending activities;
• Constant development and new funding for subsidiaries;
• Repayment to Pension funds using proceeds from the growth of market
capitalization of the subsidiaries and their sale in the future or through swap
of zero coupon bonds of Samruk-Kazyna;
• Return for Samruk-Kazyna is comprised of the proceeds from the sale or
from future value of the subsidiaries after repayment to the Pension funds.
26
• Replacement notes – 22%. Repayment
period– 8 years, grace – 3 years, rate - 2%
during grace, 6% - PIK, thereafter – 8%
annually;
• Share in equity – 70%;
• Recovery notes: 80% of all extra proceeds
from the loan portfolio and other agreed
recoveries (max. $400 mm);
• Total repayment – $297 mm.
• NPV - 12.5% at discount rate of 20%.
All creditors, except pension funds, state
entities and ECA (nominal –$956 mm) Liabilities to Samruk-Kazyna & its
subsidiaries (nominal –$228 mm)
Options for restructuring
Pension Funds
(nominal –$284 mm)
27
ECA (nominal –$217 mm)
• Transfer of ECA debt to AF
Leasing Company ;
• No haircut.
• Repayment period – 11
years, incl. grace – 3
years, interest rate –
LIBOR+1.5%.
• Transfer from Astana
Finance to the Leasing
company of assets in the
amount of US$54 mm
(credit portfolio – US$34
mm; securities - US$20
mm).
• NPV – 29% at discount
rate of 20%.
• No haircut;
• Swap to 20 year zero
coupon bonds of Samruk
Kazyna;
• Total repayment – $284
mm.
• NPV - 12.4% at discount
rate of 11%.
• 100% of liabilities are converted to
equity. Transfer to Samruk-Kazyna of
ownership of the following subsidiaries:
AF Bank (Russia), Bank Astana Finance,
2 insurance, Mortgage and Leasing
companies;
• Share in equity – 30%;
• Repayment through the projected future
value of the subsidiaries in 2020 – 2030
for $1.1 bn.
• NPV – 12.6% at discount rate of 20%.
The interest accrued on the date of the restructuring for all liabilities (except for ECA) is to be written off (subject to significant
tax exposure).
Outstanding guarantees by Leasing and Mortgage companies for corresponding debt of Astana Finance are to be waived.
• The proceeds from the loan portfolio are offered to repay the debt to all creditors, except Pension funds and ECA. These inflows are
most feasible, more reliable to forecast and most rapid to recover;
• Samruk-Kazyna zero coupon bonds swapped at par value to Astana Finance bonds are offered to pension funds as Astana-Finance
has no capabilities to repay coupons and principal during forecast;
• The Subsidiaries’ shares are offered to Samruk-Kazyna since it has more capabilities for their development and can provide support
for further growth. The loans to Subsidiaries are to be converted into their equity.
27
28
Outcomes after negotiations
Bankruptcy
NPV 0-3%
Negotiations
Pension funds
receive
Samruk-
Kazyna’s bonds
NPV 12.5%
Creditors’
agreement
NPV 12.5%
FMSA’s support
Samruk-Kazyna
receives
subsidiaries
NPV 12.6%
Action Plan
Negotiations with the creditors on Restructuring Plan June-July 2010
Signing of new Term Sheet with the Creditors’ Committee July - August 2010
Astana Finance submits the Restructuring Plan to FMSA for approval July 2010
Company presents the Restructuring Plan to Specialized Financial Court to initiate legal
procedures for the restructuringAugust 2010
Court approval of the Restructuring Plan September 2010
Distribution of Notification Letters on Creditors’ Committee and Eurobond holders meetings,
Information Memorandum and the Restructuring PlanOctober 2010
Meeting of the Eurobond holders November 2010
Final creditors’ meeting for approval of the Restructuring Plan December 2010
29