astro2010 response mps/ast cov 7 february, 2011 jim ulvestad

Astro2010 Astro2010 ResponseResponse

MPS/AST COVMPS/AST COV

7 February, 20117 February, 2011

Jim UlvestadJim Ulvestad

2

Budget Outlook & Budget Outlook & ExpectationsExpectations

Actual budget for FY 2011 (started in Actual budget for FY 2011 (started in October 2010) is presently unknownOctober 2010) is presently unknown

FY 2012 budget request released next weekFY 2012 budget request released next week Given the general and scientific budget Given the general and scientific budget

priorities in the US, it is likely that AST can priorities in the US, it is likely that AST can support large fraction of Astro2010 only if support large fraction of Astro2010 only if we make significant reductions in current we make significant reductions in current programsprograms

Aiming for substantive portfolio review, Aiming for substantive portfolio review, focused on strategic implementation of focused on strategic implementation of Astro2010 recommendations, in 2011/12Astro2010 recommendations, in 2011/12

7 February 2011 AST COV-Astro2010

NSF Large Project NSF Large Project FundingFunding

Funding is in separate (non-AST) line Funding is in separate (non-AST) line (MREFC), determined by NSF-wide (MREFC), determined by NSF-wide strategystrategy There is no funding wedge available in There is no funding wedge available in

MREFC until at least 2014MREFC until at least 2014 Highly unlikely to have two astronomy Highly unlikely to have two astronomy

construction projects in MREFC with major construction projects in MREFC with major funding occurring simultaneouslyfunding occurring simultaneously

Operations funding after construction Operations funding after construction must come directly from the baseline AST must come directly from the baseline AST budgetbudget

7 February 2011 3AST COV-Astro2010

Long-Term MREFC Long-Term MREFC FundingFunding


Typical annual MREFC funding is ~$200MTypical annual MREFC funding is ~$200M At that level, no significant wedge begins to At that level, no significant wedge begins to

appear until FY14-FY15appear until FY14-FY15

From FY11 NSF request

Astro2010 Ground Astro2010 Ground RecommendationsRecommendations

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST)—Large, MREFCLarge Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST)—Large, MREFC Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP)—Large, non-MREFCMid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP)—Large, non-MREFC ~30% share of CCAT—Medium~30% share of CCAT—Medium ~$20M augmentation to existing and small programs—~$20M augmentation to existing and small programs—

Small Small 25% federal investment in one Giant Segmented Mirror 25% federal investment in one Giant Segmented Mirror

(GSMT) candidate—Large, MREFC(GSMT) candidate—Large, MREFC 25% federal share in Atmospheric Cerenkov Telescope 25% federal share in Atmospheric Cerenkov Telescope

Array (ACTA)—Large, non-MREFCArray (ACTA)—Large, non-MREFC

Large, medium, and small programs interleaved roughly Large, medium, and small programs interleaved roughly according to priority and time sequence given by Astro2010 according to priority and time sequence given by Astro2010 in the case when the AST budget does not follow a doubling in the case when the AST budget does not follow a doubling pathpath


The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope - LSSTThe Large Synoptic Survey Telescope - LSST

Vital Statistics:

• 8.4 meter primary mirror• 3.3 gigapixel digital camera• 3.5 deg field of view• 30 terabytes of data nightly• Comprehensive operations simulator• Complete coverage of the visible sky twice per week• Nominal 10-yr lifetime• To be located on Cerro Pachon, Chile• Broad science drivers from solar system to the structure of the universe.•Multiple transients/second every night!


Large Synoptic Survey Large Synoptic Survey TelescopeTelescope

Not ‘just another telescope’, but a Not ‘just another telescope’, but a truly unique discovery enginetruly unique discovery engine US world leadership; nobody else is doing this US world leadership; nobody else is doing this Transformative in the scienceTransformative in the science

New parameter space always leads to surprises – LSST opens the New parameter space always leads to surprises – LSST opens the time domaintime domain

Myriad rapidly delivered alerts – follow-up criticalMyriad rapidly delivered alerts – follow-up critical Superb image quality with rigorously controlled systematicsSuperb image quality with rigorously controlled systematics Massive data – data enabled science – new ways of doing astronomyMassive data – data enabled science – new ways of doing astronomy

Transformative in education & outreachTransformative in education & outreach Widespread immediate accessWidespread immediate access An alert stream for everyoneAn alert stream for everyone Citizen science for tackling massive datasetsCitizen science for tackling massive datasets

Transformative in data enabled science and cyberinfrastructureTransformative in data enabled science and cyberinfrastructure Massive amounts of dataMassive amounts of data Near-real-time processingNear-real-time processing Fast dissemination to multiple data access centersFast dissemination to multiple data access centers


Large Synoptic Survey Large Synoptic Survey TelescopeTelescope Big project (~$1m per week); many government offices; Big project (~$1m per week); many government offices;

accountability for public funds => lots of paperworkaccountability for public funds => lots of paperwork NSF is working actively with DOE to synchronize schedules and NSF is working actively with DOE to synchronize schedules and

coordinate efforts on the telescope and on the cameracoordinate efforts on the telescope and on the camera Design & Development is funded through FY 2012 from an NSF Design & Development is funded through FY 2012 from an NSF

award and from DOE headquarters and laboratory supportaward and from DOE headquarters and laboratory support NSF process (MREFC) laid down in the Large Facilities ManualNSF process (MREFC) laid down in the Large Facilities Manual

We are working through the approval chain to proceed along the We are working through the approval chain to proceed along the MREFC pathMREFC path

The earliest budget by which we can get National Science Board The earliest budget by which we can get National Science Board approval and the NSF Director’s agreement to request funding is FY approval and the NSF Director’s agreement to request funding is FY 20142014

Astronomy is a small piece of the NSFAstronomy is a small piece of the NSF LSST may be the top astronomy project, but keeping it a priority in LSST may be the top astronomy project, but keeping it a priority in

the context of every proposed facility across every field NSF supports the context of every proposed facility across every field NSF supports takes continuous attentiontakes continuous attention

LSST was the Astro2010 top priority and we are working LSST was the Astro2010 top priority and we are working aggressively to move it forward, including assigning a dedicated aggressively to move it forward, including assigning a dedicated program officerprogram officer


AST Mid-Scale: AST Mid-Scale: BackgroundBackground

Problem: NSF has no clear mechanism for funding Problem: NSF has no clear mechanism for funding projects above MRI and below MREFC ($4-135M)projects above MRI and below MREFC ($4-135M)

In the past, AST has accepted and funded mid-scale In the past, AST has accepted and funded mid-scale proposals on a one-off basis, not part of a proposals on a one-off basis, not part of a competitioncompetition

Typical proposal is $5-15M over ~5 yrsTypical proposal is $5-15M over ~5 yrs Awards based on ad hoc reviews/reverse site visit Awards based on ad hoc reviews/reverse site visit

panels, and availability of fundspanels, and availability of funds No stable funding line establishedNo stable funding line established Past AST total Mid-Scale investment ~$15-20M/yr Past AST total Mid-Scale investment ~$15-20M/yr

(highly leveraged, including MREFC Design & (highly leveraged, including MREFC Design & Development)Development)


Mid-Scale in Astro 2010Mid-Scale in Astro 2010 Second priority: Mid-Scale Innovations Program Second priority: Mid-Scale Innovations Program

(MSIP)(MSIP) Recommended ramp up to $40M/yr over decadeRecommended ramp up to $40M/yr over decade Should be a Should be a competedcompeted program program A2010 received 29 white papers for mid-scale A2010 received 29 white papers for mid-scale

projects, and mentioned 8 as “compelling” :projects, and mentioned 8 as “compelling” : BIGBOSS; CMB Project(s); ExoPlanet initiatives; FASR; BIGBOSS; CMB Project(s); ExoPlanet initiatives; FASR;

HAWC; HERA; Adaptive Optics; NanoGRAVHAWC; HERA; Adaptive Optics; NanoGRAV Also CCAT, recommended to go first and not be Also CCAT, recommended to go first and not be

competed. competed. 25m submillimeter telescope25m submillimeter telescope Currently in D&D phaseCurrently in D&D phase NSF share ~$37M of $140M construction costNSF share ~$37M of $140M construction cost

COV2008 recommended against MSIP at that timeCOV2008 recommended against MSIP at that time


Mid-Scale: Current Mid-Scale: Current StatusStatus

In Blue (“Old”)In Blue (“Old”): VERITAS, SDSS, QUIET, ACT(Pol), MWA, : VERITAS, SDSS, QUIET, ACT(Pol), MWA, PAPER, DESDM, POLARBEAR, VAO, HETDEX, PAPER, DESDM, POLARBEAR, VAO, HETDEX, SKA/GSMT/LSST D&DSKA/GSMT/LSST D&D

In Red (“New”)In Red (“New”): MWA & PAPER Buildout, DESDM Ops, : MWA & PAPER Buildout, DESDM Ops, GSMT D&D, LSST bridge, CCAT (= GSMT D&D, LSST bridge, CCAT (= not total demand, not total demand, includes 1/8 of A2010 “compelling” projectsincludes 1/8 of A2010 “compelling” projects))


Funding ProspectsFunding Prospects Typical spending on mid-scale projects and Typical spending on mid-scale projects and

development of future large facilities, is ~ $20M, development of future large facilities, is ~ $20M, vs A2010 $40Mvs A2010 $40M

If Facilities and Grants are off limits (near term), If Facilities and Grants are off limits (near term), thenthen

Any increase must come from AST budget growth,Any increase must come from AST budget growth, Or, from re-programming from programs such as Or, from re-programming from programs such as

the following (total ~ $21M):the following (total ~ $21M): TSIP TSIP (~$5M)(~$5M) UROs UROs (~$10M)(~$10M) ReSTARReSTAR (~$3M) (~$3M) Gemini InstrGemini Instr (~$3M) (~$3M)


Next StepsNext Steps Currently no new funds to add to Mid-Scale lineCurrently no new funds to add to Mid-Scale line Budget re-arrangement could occur in a Budget re-arrangement could occur in a

general Portfolio Review (2012?), but this is general Portfolio Review (2012?), but this is zero sum, and takes time to executezero sum, and takes time to execute

NSF-wide Mid-Scale program being discussed, NSF-wide Mid-Scale program being discussed, but unlikely before 2013 (and not geared to but unlikely before 2013 (and not geared to AST needs)AST needs)

Funding wedge for competition could open up Funding wedge for competition could open up from completion of current programs, butfrom completion of current programs, but would take timewould take time implies no new starts for several yearsimplies no new starts for several years

Conclusion: Probably no competition before Conclusion: Probably no competition before 2013-2014 at earliest2013-2014 at earliest


14

GSMTGSMT

Two U.S. and one European projectsTwo U.S. and one European projects Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) - ChileGiant Magellan Telescope (GMT) - Chile Thirty-Meter Telescope (TMT) - HawaiiThirty-Meter Telescope (TMT) - Hawaii European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) - European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) -

ChileChile Astro2010 recommendationAstro2010 recommendation

Seek 25% public share in one projectSeek 25% public share in one project Share would come from investment in Share would come from investment in

design/development, construction (MREFC), design/development, construction (MREFC), instrumentation, or operationsinstrumentation, or operations

Undertake “immediate” evaluation of projectsUndertake “immediate” evaluation of projects AST planAST plan

Receive proposals for design/developmentReceive proposals for design/development Conduct programmatic reviewConduct programmatic review Work towards possible MREFC funding in Work towards possible MREFC funding in

2017(+)2017(+)7 February 2011 AST COV-Astro2010

15

GSMTGSMT

Review criteria: select project with …Review criteria: select project with … Significant opportunities for wider U.S. communitySignificant opportunities for wider U.S. community Best cost/risk/impact tradeoff for U.S. governmentBest cost/risk/impact tradeoff for U.S. government

Review elementsReview elements Scientific impact of the telescope / proposed Scientific impact of the telescope / proposed

instrumentsinstruments Nature of a public share, benefits to the communityNature of a public share, benefits to the community Technical feasibility and soundness of designTechnical feasibility and soundness of design Cost/technical risk assessment and mitigation Cost/technical risk assessment and mitigation

strategystrategy Maturity of financial and administrative structuresMaturity of financial and administrative structures Commitment to education, diversity, and public Commitment to education, diversity, and public

outreachoutreach Target timelineTarget timeline

Letters of intent: late July, 2011Letters of intent: late July, 2011 Proposals due: late September, 2011Proposals due: late September, 2011 Decisions announced in early 2012Decisions announced in early 2012

7 February 2011 AST COV-Astro2010

Small ProgramsSmall Programs

$8M (17%) increase in AAG$8M (17%) increase in AAG $5M (50%) increase in ATI.$5M (50%) increase in ATI. $2M increase (10%) in Gemini contribution$2M increase (10%) in Gemini contribution

UK withdrawal after 2012UK withdrawal after 2012 $1.5-2M increase in Telescope Systems $1.5-2M increase in Telescope Systems

InstrumentationInstrumentation $2.5M for Theory & Computation Networks$2.5M for Theory & Computation Networks

These all depend on a steadily increasing These all depend on a steadily increasing budget, so AST can make no budget, so AST can make no commitments at this timecommitments at this time


OIR SystemOIR System Astro2010: Re-adjust balance of current vs. future Astro2010: Re-adjust balance of current vs. future

facilitiesfacilities This will require an overall AST portfolio review This will require an overall AST portfolio review

Astro2010: Restructure Gemini, acquire increased Astro2010: Restructure Gemini, acquire increased Gemini share, and consider Gemini/NOAO Gemini share, and consider Gemini/NOAO consolidationconsolidation Share will increase from 50% to ~63% after 2012 Share will increase from 50% to ~63% after 2012

because of UK withdrawal (increase of ~50 nights/year)because of UK withdrawal (increase of ~50 nights/year) New structure of international partnership is under New structure of international partnership is under

active discussion, as is Gemini/NOAO consolidationactive discussion, as is Gemini/NOAO consolidation The two are not easily decoupled, since NOAO is a US entity, but The two are not easily decoupled, since NOAO is a US entity, but

Gemini is a multi-lateral international observatoryGemini is a multi-lateral international observatory International Gemini board has formed tiger team to consider and International Gemini board has formed tiger team to consider and

recommend new governance optionsrecommend new governance options ESO reformulation may have significant impactESO reformulation may have significant impact


Other Recommendations and Other Recommendations and ConclusionsConclusions

US participation in SKA construction not possible this US participation in SKA construction not possible this decade in realistic budget scenariosdecade in realistic budget scenarios

Complete next senior review before mid-decadeComplete next senior review before mid-decade Fund lab astrophysics at or above previous levelsFund lab astrophysics at or above previous levels Refocus efforts on attracting members of Refocus efforts on attracting members of

underrepresented minorities to the fieldunderrepresented minorities to the field Continue work to promote gender equityContinue work to promote gender equity Expose students to wide variety of career opportunitiesExpose students to wide variety of career opportunities Budget and plan for acquisition, processing, archiving, Budget and plan for acquisition, processing, archiving,

access and long-term curation of dataaccess and long-term curation of data Develop/support multidisciplinary solar researchDevelop/support multidisciplinary solar research Form decadal survey advisory committee (charge Form decadal survey advisory committee (charge

overlaps AAAC)overlaps AAAC)


General Strategic General Strategic ApproachApproach Probability is high that positive response to a Probability is high that positive response to a

significant set of the Astro2010 recommendations significant set of the Astro2010 recommendations will require major re-thinking of the overall AST will require major re-thinking of the overall AST portfolioportfolio

Plan at present is to execute a strategic review of Plan at present is to execute a strategic review of the entire AST portfolio, to outline the balance and the entire AST portfolio, to outline the balance and set of programs desirable in the 2015, 2020, and set of programs desirable in the 2015, 2020, and 2025 time frames2025 time frames Exact mechanism for the review is under discussion, but Exact mechanism for the review is under discussion, but

review will be expected to adhere to realistic budget review will be expected to adhere to realistic budget scenarios and timescales for program changesscenarios and timescales for program changes

Science priorities of Astro2010 will play an important roleScience priorities of Astro2010 will play an important role All programs within AST will be part of the reviewAll programs within AST will be part of the review Review completion expected in CY 2012Review completion expected in CY 2012


astro2010 response mps/ast cov 7 february, 2011 jim ulvestad

Documents

jim ulvestadast covastro2010

separate nonast line

baseline ast budget7

terabytes of data

large fraction of astro2010

budget request

term mrefc funding7

everyonecitizen science