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The symmetry of share shifts in mobile phones

OCT 5, 105:52 PM

AUTHORHorace DediuCATEGORIESIndustry

Thanks to a readers suggestion, I took another look at theprofit and market share datafrom themobile phone

market overview posted last quarter. This time to compare the vendors on two dimensions at the same time.

I plotted the vendors on share of market and share of profit axes in two different points in time: Q2 2007 and Q2

2010. I further broke the chart into four quadrants as shown:
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I chose to label the quadrants to indicate the possible categorization of the companies.

Dominant: large market share and large profit share

Star: low market share with large profit share

Fading: high market share with low profit
http://www.asymco.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Screen-shot-2010-10-05-at-10-5-7.58.32-PM1.png

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Marginal: low market share and low profit

Its interesting to note the shift over the time period of the eight vendors. Whereas Nokia moved from Dominant to

Fading, only Apple rose from Marginal to Star. The Marginal players dispersed their placement with Samsung

moving laterally toward Nokia while RIM followed in the Apple trajectory and increased profit share while

maintaining relatively low share.

Thinking about motion around these two dimensions could be reduced to a vector model. If each vendor is

represented by an arrow showing direction and distance moved, we can compare each vendor vs. a symmetric

competitor which might account for the loss or gain of share.

The vectors can be paired as follows:

Although the data does not contain all market participants, the shifts in share are quite closely conserved with the

vector magnitude (arrow length) and angle (direction) paired. Note how Nokia and Apple swapped Profit without too

much impact in Units volume. Similarly, RIM and Sony Ericsson traded profits and volumes quite symmetrically.

Samsung also took volume while Motorola lost it. HTC and LG did not change positions dramatically.

Finally, moving all vectors to the same origin leads to this view of share gain/loss over three years in twodimensions:
http://www.asymco.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Screen-shot-2010-10-05-at-10-5-8.41.56-PM.png

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It becomes quite easy to see who the winners and losers are and by how much.

This model is only an observation of the shifts in market power and is not conclusive about where share was gained

or lost, however there is compelling symmetry which also matches the intuition of observers.

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+13

Beautiful, just beautiful. Data visualization truly is a form of art, and you are a master at it.

Reply

0
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weeks ago

I am discounter, so I feel Nokia's pain. I however, do not understand why they would make so little profit.

In discounting the most important measure after margin is stock turn. So, if a product is a low margin

product, what we then try to influence is its turn. I am wondering how you treat this Horace.

If their margin is low (given) and their turn is also low (don't know), why are they bothering?

Apple should be a case study in all business school. They are doing something very different, totally

unconventional.

Reply

1 reply active less than 1 minute ago

+1

eks ago

So Sami is on the board-line of FADE. The more Android they pump out, the quicker they slip into fade.

Correct?

Reply

2 replies active less than 1 minute ago

+5

Surely those manufacturers with near zero volume and near zero profit (mostly Android supporters) are

not simply marginal, they're totally fucked.

Reply

1 reply active less than 1 minute ago

+5

eks ago

Great graph, Horace.

In the context of Android, what's interesting to me is that Android is turning some winners into losers and
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vice versa. Motorola has had a great run with the Droid, so even while their unit sales are way down, their

profit is way up (positive now, finally!)

In essence, when I look at this graph I see proof of what I'm noticing: that Android has created a product

that can compete with Nokia on volume, price, and carrier selection by letting talentless software

designers at manufacturing companies stand on google's shoulders, and thus give them a shot at selling

lots of phones to the 80-90% of people using bad phones.

In my opinion, Android isn't really going to be much competition with Apple on ANY carrier that sells both

phones. Look at AT&T, look at the European carriers. Find any carrier whose iPhone sales lag their

Android sales.

When Apple busts out of AT&T exclusivity, they better have their supply chain ready to explode. There

was a lot of talk about how Apple went after a license to use LiquidMetal technology, and after reading the

interview with the FoxConn CEO on how difficult it was to make the iPhone 4 case, my guess is thatthey'd need LiquidMetal just to produce them fast enough to meet widespread demand.

Reply

+1

4 weeks ago

Billy, Yes you are right.

It reflects Google's strategy; make the handset (profitless) "free" and run suite of Google applications.

The handset makers have little choice;

(a) Adopt Android and have chance against Apple, or

(b) role their own (ex. Palm, Nokia), or

(c) get out of smartphone market (get our handset market altogether).

Handset market will end up like the PC industry ( Intel and MS taking +80% of industry profits), a very few

players will take majority of profits.

-Tek

Reply

+3

ago
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At one point in time, Samsung had absolutely no idea when it comes to product focus, specifically for

mobile phones. They are better today, but still confused.

Ironically, Samsung has the financial resources to enable them to play the trial-and-error game endlessly,

hence why they were the only phone maker whos had products based on almost every smartphone

mobile platform known to man with the exception of iOS, of course.

I have absolutely no respect for Samsung as a phone maker. They lack any real creativity and succeed

thanks to the merits of others (the Galaxy S is a perfect example of how they do things in the mobile

division, and I have no hopes on the Galaxy Tab either).

As for their semiconductor division, I believe it is doing a far better job. If they're able to produce good

quality products, which Samsung are actually capable, then by all means Apple should keep them as their

component supplier. There are only so many manufacturers out there who are able to churn out the

quantities required in the fast-paced CE world we live in today,

Reply

1 reply active 4 weeks ago

+2

eks ago

The summary of all summaries! The vector plots show the trends clearly.

Reply

Mobile phones: Who's up, who's down and who's moving sideways | All in one Articles |

Submit free articles

[...] Its a lovely piece of work and quite easy to follow. You see it here. [...]

0

ago

Great graphs that succintly summarize the market players. Only suggestion I would have in the vector

graphs is to show different colored arrows (may be red) for total market growth/units shipped and total

profit growth over the same time period, just to see how the overall smartphone market did compared to

each of the individual players.

Reply

+1
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go

It will get worse for the Android makers.

While Apple has a distinct brand and unique set of benefits, Android manufacturers have little to set one

apart from the other. When the pie stops growing, they'll have to compete against each other on price.

That's a path going nowhere.

Reply

+2

44p 4 weeks ago

I know they are a distant 3rd or 4th in mindshare, but it is interesting to see RIM succeeding along withApple. Obviously their star doesn't burn as bright, but they are the only other manufacturer with a truly

differentiated product and ecosystem (BBM, hosted email, etc.). I wonder what this portends for WebOS

when HP finally decides to start making product.

Also, MOT has probably made their entire upward move on the profit share axis in the last 9 months. I bet

this graph would look different on a shorter timeline. I for one would love to see this as a regular (quarterly

or annual) feature on Asymco. My guess is that Apple will continue on its trajectory but the others will

continue to shift around quite a bit.

Reply


0

eks ago

Is is just me or Android caring companies are not very profitable. Seams the only thing that makes money

for them is the paid licensing of the "Droid" word from Lucasilm by Verizon wireless.

Reply

0

o

Outstanding!

Reply
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0

wn 4 weeks ago

Love this article and its graphs. I just wish it was required reading alongside the dung-pile of "Androidrules the mobile space" articles that are churned out ad nauseum.

Reply

0

ago

very interesting ...apple=low market share but apple = high profilts...

Reply

0

ago

A picture speaks a thousand words.

Absolutely fantastic visual synthesis of the data previously presented by Asymco!

Reply

Winners and Losers of the Smartphone Industry: Flow Chart - Phone-stuff

[...] [asymco via DF] [...]

Winners and Losers of the Smartphone Industry - Phone-stuff


0

ago

no mention of motorola at all. Did all those flat flip phones die?

Reply


0
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weeks ago

Excellent analysis. I'd like to see a comparison of profit share for developers in the app

stores/marketplaces though I guess a lot of that data isn't published.

Reply

-4

go

"there is compelling symmetry"

See also: ley lines.

Reply

Winners and Losers of the Smartphone Industry | iPhone World Blog


0

o

It seems that financially the only companies to survive in this market are those who produce their own

software and hardware - Apple, RIM, Nokia, HP/Palm. I'm not sure what that means for Android and

Win7. It will be interesting to see how this graph changes in the next year with the maturity of Android and

the introduction of Win7. We'll also see Nokia's new OS and HP/Palm will finally release a new phone.

My personal take is that manufacturers will have to either choose Android or Win7 if they want to survive.

Apple, RIM, and Nokia will become the dominant players although I really hope that HP makes some

headway. Conclusion - Android and Win7 are going to be the bain of most companies here in a couple

years.

Oh, and the manufacturers are really screwed because the winners of this industry are not going to becompeting on hardware specs to win customers (that is now taken for granted by consumers), the real

money is in the services offered to differentiate the products. That is the real reason the Apple and RIM

are doing well - the services behind the phones.

Reply

0
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o

Very, very nice indeed. Keep up the good work!

One small niggle, for the final chart you say (emphasis mine) "Finally, moving all vectors to the same

origin leads to this view of share gain/loss over TWO years in two dimensions:" but the chart axes are

labelled for "3yr."

Reply

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60 percent of Apple's sales are from products that did not exist three years ago(42356)

The symmetry of share shifts in mobile phones(31834)

Android's Pursuit of the Biggest Losers(27861)

Unix's Revenge(26857)

Back to the PC(26449)

Can Android change the distribution of profit among phone vendors?(22239)

Canalys: Android global share rises to 16% of smartphones in Q1 [Updated](21887)

Android vs. Windows Phone: Extending the urination metaphor(20042)

Gartner: as a Media Tablet, iPad deserves to be ignored in PC rankings(18056)

Open always wins, unless it's Symbian or LiMo or Openmoko or Qt(15506)

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