at shared intelligence we use data and ... - wordpress.com · dec 2014 jan 2015-dec 2015 jan...
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At Shared Intelligence we use data and evidence, logical ways of thinking and facilitated conversations to help our clients achieve better outcomes for the places and communities they
serve
17 Trends(and correlations, and epiphenomenal associations)
Tom Perrigo & Ben Lee July 2017
1a: The “Great Delamination” of productivity, jobs, and wages
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/09/04/opinion/04reich-graphic.html
1b: How can productivity grow but not wages?
Wages of the top 1%Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/09/04/opinion/04reich-graphic.html
2: Nation of freelancers?
1.08
1.24
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
Jan 2005-Dec 2005
Jan 2006-Dec 2006
Jan 2007-Dec 2007
Jan 2008-Dec 2008
Jan 2009-Dec 2009
Jan 2010-Dec 2010
Jan 2011-Dec 2011
Jan 2012-Dec 2012
Jan 2013-Dec 2013
Jan 2014-Dec 2014
Jan 2015-Dec 2015
Jan 2016-Dec 2016
Index of UK employment and self-employment [2004 = 1]
Employment (+2,182,400) Self employment (+845,700)
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey (APS)
3a: The Tortoise and the Hare
1.51
2.21
0.50
0.70
0.90
1.10
1.30
1.50
1.70
1.90
2.10
2.30
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039
Ind
ex [
20
17
= 1
00
]
Index of total 65+ and 85+ cohorts 2017 - 2039
65+ 85+
Source: ONS Population Projections
3b: Dementia
85-89
100+
75-79
Source: http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/time-to-think-differently/trends
4: Downsizing the labour market
1,669,345
3,172,277
3,885,934
3,595,3213,656,185
2,927,598
3,275,474
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050 2051-2055
English Retirees per 5-year period 1996 - 2055; and, expected On-stream working age cohort to 2035
Domestic working age population cohort entrants Retirement and labour market exits at 65 yrs
Source: ONS Population Projections
5: Un-Affordable housing
2,549,000
4,588,000
1,651,000
2,343,0002,457,000
1,669,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Dwellings by tenure in England 2004 - 2014 (Source: Shelter.org)
Privately rented Social rented - Housing Association Social rented - Local Authority
Source: Shelter.org
6: We live where we can afford
Residential density
Job density
London workers
Source LSE cities unit; and, ONS Census 2011
7: The kids have returned
Source: Financial Times 2017
8: Gini in the bottle
Source: The enemy between us : The psychological and social costs of inequality. / Wilkinson, Richard G.; Pickett, Kate (2017)
9: Disability-free life expectancy and other health inequalities
Life Expectancy by IMD Life Expectancy by occupation
Source: Marmot Review 2015 update
10: Mental health: resources and intervention type
Source: HSIC 2015
11: Pile it high! (and shop early)
Consumable goods are cheaper…
…Partly because more people shop online
And in contrast to some other trends, the young are significantly more optimistic about growing their disposable income in 2017 than the old…
Source: The retail profitability challenge Deloitte 2017
12: The big squeeze - Zero Hours
225
585
905
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Nu
mb
er
of
pe
op
le [
00
0's
]
UK zero-hours workers 2000 - 2016 [000's]
Source: ONS 2017
13: A bigger squeeze – care wages
Photo from: www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/40585863
14: Culture leads to competitiveness
Source: UK Competitiveness Index 2010, Cardiff University
15: The risks of ignoring cultural inclusion are currently ‘trending’
One of the key findings of this year’s Global Risks Report is that inequality and polarization are now ranked in the top three as underlying drivers of global risks.
Source: World Economic Forum 2017
16: The decline of local news…
Source: Martin Moore & Gordon Ramsay, monopolising local news; LSE 2016
17: Despite how it feels, some things don’t change…
In Europe deaths from terrorist incidents are far outnumbered by deaths from cancer, suicide, and traffic accidents, but per victim coverage is higher for terror-related deaths. A US study found around 2,000 media articles of related coverage per victim, for terror-related deaths.
At Shared Intelligence we use data and evidence, logical ways of thinking and facilitated conversations to help our clients achieve better outcomes for the places and communities they
serve